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crypto is crashing and some altcoins are
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doing worse than others polygon metic is
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one of them does it make sense to buy
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now this dip when everybody is in panic
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we should maybe buy the fear let's have
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a look at some data most people are not
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considering let's try to find out where
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a potential bottom might be let's have a
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look at relative valuation charts and
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let's start off with the meic token or P
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token it's the same thing right they can
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be migrated let's start off with that
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token relative to ethereum because
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polygon metic is a layer 2 scaling
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Solution on top of ethereum we had two
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times where Matic did really well this
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was upon launch and this was during the
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altcoin season of 2021 metic
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outperformed plain old ethereum by more
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than
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3,000% but it seems like things have
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changed since then we either going
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sideways now or we're going down now
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this is meic relative to Eve and this is
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meic relative to Bitcoin now since
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February of last year we see that the
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underperformance relative to bitcoin is
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very very constant there's barely a
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rally we see that the underperformance
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is fairly constant there aren't that
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many Ries and so since that all-time
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high metic has underperformed Bitcoin by
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92.5% now one might say that Bitcoin was
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simply just an outperformer because of
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the Bitcoin ETF inflows or that altcoins
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in general didn't do that well but
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there's another measure we can have a
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look at the others dominance so how much
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of all of crypto is in the altcoins that
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are not in the top 10 and initially we
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had our adoption through the Ico phase
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and now the altcoin dominance doesn't
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seem to rise that quickly anymore and we
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are somewhat in a trading range and the
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vertical line that we see over here
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February of 2023 that corresponds to the
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vertical line over here on this meic to
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bitcoin chart so the altcoins as a
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fraction of all of crypto during the
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same time did not necessarily perform
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that well it went down by 177% but it's
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no comparison to how badly polygon did
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relative to Bitcoin in the same period
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92% underperformance versus 177%
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underperformance those are two different
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worlds while there was an altcoin Rally
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from June of 2023 to the end of the year
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where the altcoins outperformed the Rest
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by 63% polygon metic barely moved now
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the competition among layer 2 scaling
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Solutions on top of ethereum is heating
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up there's new layer tws launching
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regularly and so there are more and more
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projects competing for similar amounts
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of capital now how did polygon do
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relative to other layer twos this is
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Matic relative to mental since July of
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2023 to today metic underperformed by
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68% here is metic relative to arbitrum
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since March of 2023 to today meic
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underperformed by 29% here is meic
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relative to Stacks now Stacks is a layer
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to on top of Bitcoin not on top of
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ethereum still an underperformance of
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72% and that's since January of 2022
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what we've got over here is metic
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relative to optimism since June of 2022
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Matic did worse compared to optimism by
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48% so really Matic has been one of the
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worst performers and the bad performance
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is pretty consistent both across
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different asset classes but also over
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time now is this then an opportunity
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right because it might make sense to buy
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the fear right everybody says buy when
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there is blood in the streets is this
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potentially a bottom we can have a look
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at the market cap of layer twos now
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we've got the P token and the meic token
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it's the same network so you have to add
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up those two market caps that's in total
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4.9 billion the second largest layer to
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is mental which has 3.9 then we've got
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arbitrum 3.3 we've got Stacks we've got
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optimism polygon is still the largest
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market cap project along all of the
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layer 2 networks it already did worse
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than all the rest but it's still not
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cheap red Rel L speaking it's still
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relatively expensive now here's the
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thing we've seen a very nice Revival of
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decentralized Finance in the last few
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months so we had our defi summer in 2021
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then subsequently our collapse of FTX
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and of Terra Luna and since October of
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last year we see again how defi tends to
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expand now this is the total value
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locked across all chains across all
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protocols we aren't yet at prior Heights
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but still the market overall is
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expanding and we can see how several
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layer twos are benefiting from this this
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here is arbitrum and here's the total
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value lock of optimism here we've got
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mantle here we've got bass and surprise
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surprise here we've got metic the defi
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summer of 2021 was great for metic but
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metic is the only chain that doesn't
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really see a proper Revival metic is a
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former shell of itself unfortunately and
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so here's the problem right there are so
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many different layer tools now that when
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you develop a new produ project there is
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really no reason to be exclusively
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available on metic there's all these
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other chains that have way more Capital
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flowing in and so when you build
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something you will get more adoption on
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those other chains why go with a
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dinosaur that has zero momentum yes the
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market cap of polygon is still high but
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the total value locked on chain actually
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isn't and so that's why I believe Matic
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is likely going to continue to
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underperform the rest of the market it
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might go up as all of crypto is
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appreciating but when Bitcoin now
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doubles from here metic might do another
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say 50% it's probably not going to make
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the 3x that would be justified because
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we take on way more Risk by buying meic
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compared to just buying Bitcoin now
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here's the thing there are plenty of
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topics within crypto that aren't very
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sexy but that are I believe very vital
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to make money long term for example
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Concepts like correlation what we see
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over here are correlation coefficients
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did you know for example that most
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altcoins tend to be more correlated with
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ethereum than with Bitcoin in other
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words it's not when Bitcoin goes up that
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the altcoins go up as well it's rather
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when ethereum goes up then the altcoins
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go up as well or did you know that the
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correlation coefficient of the S&P 500
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to ethereum and thus the altcoin market
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is actually quite volatile in other
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words it does make sense to also own
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stocks not just ethereum not just crypto
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the common narrative is that when
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traditional markets go down that crypto
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tends to go down as well right that
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crypto is simply just a levered bet on
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say technology stocks that's not the
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case the correlation coefficient is
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relatively close to zero how do you know
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the long-term expected returns of
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various asset classes of say gold of say
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the S&P 500 of Bitcoin of altcoins when
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we don't just own crypto but we also own
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property for example and we've got that
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portfolio what kind of returns do we
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need in order to beat monetary
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debasement but also in order to at some
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point to get financially free how much
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money do we need to have enough passive
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income to not having to work anymore
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what are expected long-term returns and
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how much should we actually allocate
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towards crypto and towards property
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towards stocks Golds Bond Etc what
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actually makes sense when there are tens
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of thousands hundreds of thousands maybe
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even millions of dollars on the line not
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having this properly nailed down is a
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huge problem and when the market isn't
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that great anymore and the upside for
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Bitcoin could be somewhat limited how
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can we still make money how can we make
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money from charts like this what we see
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over here is balancer relative to
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ethereum we can make money by shorting
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this balancer has very bad toomics the
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supply increases over time and so it
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tends to do worse than Bitcoin and
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ethereum over the long term and we can
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make money from that again from the
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relative valuations not just from US
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dollar valuations when we look at how
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quickly is the monetary base expanding
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and we put this into relationship to how
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quickly are salaries increasing we
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actually see that pretty much everybody
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is falling behind over time and this is
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not just true for the poor people this
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is even true for the top 5% of earners
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by the way if you earn half a million
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dollars per year then you are in the top
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5% but yeah data like this is useful and
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those are not necessarily the sexy
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topics that work well on YouTube right
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on YouTube it's the 100x altcoin gems
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that get all the clicks but when you
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talk about diversification and
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correlation Etc people just fall asleep
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but it's the long-term planning the
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long-term proper allocation towards
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different asset class
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that actually make the difference and so
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have a look at all of this those are
00:08:33
tutorial videos of the premium
00:08:35
membership of this channel it's down
00:08:36
below the Bitcoin trade.com there's more
00:08:38
than 100 tutorial videos in total what
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are my favorite crypto macro indicators
00:08:43
how do interest rates impact different
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asset classes we've just seen how the
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market got spooked because the Federal
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Reserve might get more hawkish or how do
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we adjust our returns for risk
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mathematically right everybody can get
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more returns by increasing the risk
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massively but the idea is we want to get
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the best returns for the risk and so
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there are ways to calculate this using
00:09:05
Alpha and beta those are all very
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complex topics but I strongly believe
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that it's the skilled people the people
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that have most knowledge that tend to
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make most money over time now besides
00:09:14
all of those tutorial videos there are
00:09:16
also various chats in premium where I
00:09:18
try to be active as well so in case
00:09:20
you've got any questions just tag me in
00:09:22
a message in those premium chats and try
00:09:24
to reply the membership is currently
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$165 per month this is not for people
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that only have a net worth of $1,000
00:09:31
right this is for people that actually
00:09:33
have to manage wealth in the tens of
00:09:35
thousands preferably even hundreds of
00:09:36
thousands of dollars there is a onee
00:09:38
money back guarantee as well so in case
00:09:40
you don't like premium just message me
00:09:41
within the first week and I refund you
00:09:43
100% there's really zero risk for you
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now if it's your first time here feel
00:09:47
you to subscribe I publish you regly
00:09:48
like would be very much appreciated as
00:09:50
well it helps the channel grow see you
00:09:51
in the next video or see you in premium
00:09:53
cheers
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