Super Micro Earnings: The Good and The Bad

00:11:04
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDH-SvgLzcI

Zusammenfassung

TLDRSuper Micro's latest quarterly report showed a dramatic stock movement, initially dropping 15% before rebounding 8-9% after-hours. The company reported 54% year-over-year growth with net sales between $5.6 and $5.7 billion, but lowered guidance for fiscal 25 revenues, forecasting $23.5 to $25 billion, significantly below earlier estimates. A major positive was the projection for fiscal 26 revenue of approximately $40 billion, which exceeded analysts' expectations by about $10 billion. However, the company has faced challenges, including delayed 10K and 10Q filings and ongoing scrutiny from the DOJ and SEC over financial disclosures. Investor sentiment remains cautious as they await these filings by February 25, 2025, which will significantly impact stock performance.

Mitbringsel

  • 📊 Super Micro's stock fluctuated dramatically after earnings release.
  • 📈 Net sales showed a 54% year-over-year increase to $5.6-5.7B.
  • ⏳ Company must file 10K and 10Q by February 25, 2025, to avoid delisting.
  • 🔮 Fiscal 26 revenue forecast at $40B is significantly higher than analyst expectations.
  • 💵 Super Micro has $2B in cash despite increased costs and declining margins.
  • ⚖️ Ongoing investigations by DOJ and SEC are raising investor concerns.
  • 🌍 The company plans to expand in international markets and AI infrastructure.
  • 📉 Guidance for fiscal 25 revenue was lowered to $23.5-25B.
  • 🚀 Strong demand for AI and data center solutions remains.
  • 🔊 Audio issues during the earnings call were noted as frustrating.

Zeitleiste

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Super Micro has shown significant stock volatility after its latest quarterly report, initially down 15% but eventually rising about 9%. The quarter reported net sales of $5.6 to $5.7 billion, marking a 54% year-over-year growth. However, they faced numerous misses in guidance and margin reports, with a projected revenue drop for fiscal 2025, and concerns about timely filing of financial reports loom, risking delisting.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:11:04

    Despite poor quarterly figures, Super Micro's surprise revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 of approximately $40 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of around $30 billion, caused a boost in stock price. The company is experiencing increased demand for its AI solutions, yet its margins are declining. The success of the upcoming filing by February 25, 2025, remains crucial for investor confidence and stock valuation.

Mind Map

Video-Fragen und Antworten

  • What were Super Micro's net sales for the quarter?

    Net sales came in at 5.6 to 5.7 billion dollars, representing 54% year-over-year growth.

  • What is the forecast for Super Micro's revenue in fiscal 26?

    Super Micro expects revenue to be approximately $40 billion for fiscal 26.

  • When is the deadline for Super Micro to file their reports?

    Super Micro must file their 10K and 10Q reports by February 25, 2025.

  • What caused the significant stock swing after hours?

    The stock rose due to the fiscal 26 revenue guidance, which surprised analysts with a much higher figure than expected.

  • What challenges is Super Micro facing?

    Challenges include delayed financial filings, a $700 million private placement, and ongoing investigations by the DOJ and SEC.

  • What were the earnings per share for Super Micro?

    Gap diluted net income per share is expected to be in the range of 50 to 52 cents.

  • How is investor sentiment regarding the stock?

    Investor sentiment is cautious pending the company's timely filings to avoid delisting.

  • What is the current financial state of Super Micro?

    The company has $2 billion in cash but has been facing declining gross margins.

  • How is Super Micro planning to grow?

    They plan to expand in AI infrastructure, particularly leveraging their direct liquid cooling technology.

  • What is the general market response to Super Micro's report?

    Market response has been mixed, with excitement over future growth tempered by operational challenges.

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Untertitel
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Automatisches Blättern:
  • 00:00:00
    super micro just released their latest
  • 00:00:01
    quartly figures and the after hour
  • 00:00:03
    action is basically this at the time of
  • 00:00:06
    recording the stock is up around 8 to 9%
  • 00:00:09
    now bear in mind that at one moment the
  • 00:00:11
    stock was down 15% when I checked it
  • 00:00:15
    could have been down a little bit more
  • 00:00:17
    but when I saw it it was down 15% and
  • 00:00:19
    now it's up close to 9% that's a huge
  • 00:00:23
    huge swing in after hours so let's
  • 00:00:26
    discuss the good and the very bad in the
  • 00:00:29
    quarter and if you're wondering if their
  • 00:00:31
    10K has been filed no it has not so
  • 00:00:34
    anyways hit all the buttons we really
  • 00:00:36
    appreciate that we're probably going to
  • 00:00:38
    cover lift in a couple of hours or maybe
  • 00:00:40
    tomorrow before the Market opens if
  • 00:00:42
    you're interested in that let me know
  • 00:00:44
    down in the comment section below you
  • 00:00:45
    want sport me even further do check out
  • 00:00:46
    the link down in the description and in
  • 00:00:48
    the P comment you the top 10 best stocks
  • 00:00:49
    to buy now or go to f.com investor thank
  • 00:00:52
    you very much all right so let's first
  • 00:00:54
    start with the current quarter so net
  • 00:00:57
    sales came in at 5.6 to 5.7 billion
  • 00:01:00
    dollars representing 54% year-over-year
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    growth at the midpoint by the way for
  • 00:01:04
    the quarter lots of Misses lots of
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    misses and guidance also missed so there
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    is that but but there is a huge huge win
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    and we'll talk about that in a second
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    Gap and non-gaap gross margin continues
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    to come down in the range of 11.8 to
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    11.9% and by the way these are
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    preliminary second quarter results as
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    for Gap diluted net income per share
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    that should come in in the range of of
  • 00:01:30
    50 to 52 cents flat year- on-ear also a
  • 00:01:33
    miss and the same for non Gap management
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    said the following with our leading
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    direct liquid cooling technology and
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    over 30% of new data center expected to
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    adopt it in the next 12 months super
  • 00:01:47
    micro is well positioned to grow AI
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    infrastructure design WIS based on
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    Nvidia Blackwell and more combined with
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    exceptional product Quality Service
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    software networking and security with
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    Data Center building block super micro
  • 00:02:00
    will expand our leadership as the
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    premier us-based data center
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    infrastructure solution provider during
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    the call they also talked about not just
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    growing in the United States but growing
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    in other Asian markets and Europe
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    specifically we anticipate this
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    technology transition sets a strong
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    foundation for us now resulting in fisar
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    25 Revenue in the range of 23.5 to$ 25
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    billion which is lower than what they
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    previously expected the higher end was
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    closer to $30 billion but but the huge
  • 00:02:30
    surprise and huge win here and that's
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    one of the reasons why the stock is up
  • 00:02:34
    so much after hours is for fiscal 26
  • 00:02:38
    Revenue guidance this well the target
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    here and Charles Yang said numerous
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    times during the earnings call that this
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    is a conservative number so they expect
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    revenue for fiscal 26 to be
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    approximately $40 billion it's a huge
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    huge increase year over year huge huge
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    increase and he kept on saying this is
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    conservative so I mean for a company
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    that is worth now what still under $30
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    billion they expect to generate a
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    proximately $40 billion in fiscal 26 I
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    mean there is a big disconnect here but
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    of course if there's no 10K filed 10 Q
  • 00:03:17
    filed by February 25th they are going to
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    get delisted now they did tell us a
  • 00:03:23
    little bit more about that I'll go over
  • 00:03:25
    that in just a second as for guidance
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    for the next quarter they said the
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    following the company expect net sales
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    in the range of5 to6 billion for the
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    third quarter Gap net income per diluted
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    share of 36 to 53 cents and non Gap net
  • 00:03:39
    income perut share of 46 to 62 cents and
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    then fiscal 25 the company is updating
  • 00:03:46
    the revenue guidance from a range of 26
  • 00:03:49
    to30 billion to a new range of 23.5 to
  • 00:03:53
    $25 billion so that's the big Miss
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    basically now as for the corporate
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    updates so by the way first of all
  • 00:04:00
    during the earning call they said that
  • 00:04:01
    Nvidia Blackwell is shipping the AI
  • 00:04:03
    solution backlog will take time to be
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    fulfilled there are Enterprises csps and
  • 00:04:08
    many others that are contacting super
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    micro so demand is increasing for
  • 00:04:13
    various solutions they have two billion
  • 00:04:16
    dollars in cash and they said that b200
  • 00:04:18
    and gb200 demand is still very high and
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    the high volume liquid cooling solution
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    that they have is basically the
  • 00:04:25
    advantage over the competition but to be
  • 00:04:29
    honest if that is true then we should be
  • 00:04:30
    seeing margins starting to pick back up
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    right now it's really coming down down
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    down so as for the corporate update they
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    said the following super micro continues
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    to work diligently toward the filing of
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    its annual report on form 10K for a
  • 00:04:45
    fiscal year ending June 30 2024 yes it's
  • 00:04:48
    been since August and its quarterly
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    report on form 10q for the period ending
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    September 30 2024 based on information
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    currently available the company believes
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    it will make such filings by February
  • 00:05:01
    25th 2025 Additionally the company today
  • 00:05:05
    filed a form which basically means that
  • 00:05:07
    the current quarter the filing there is
  • 00:05:10
    also going to be delayed so that's it
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    12b 25 that's the form in a separate
  • 00:05:16
    press release issued today the company
  • 00:05:18
    announced that it had agreed to issue a
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    private placement of $700 million of new
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    2.25% convertible senior noes due 2028
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    and to amend the terms of its existing
  • 00:05:29
    convertible senior notes due 2029 yes
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    this is dilutive but again the keyword
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    here is convertible can be converted can
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    also not be then with regards to the doj
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    story that happened last year in late
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    2024 the company received subers from
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    the Department of Justice and the
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    Securities and Exchange Commission yes
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    SEC seeking certain documents following
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    the publication of allegations in a
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    short seller report which was published
  • 00:05:56
    in August 2024 the company is
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    cooperating with this document request
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    in addition in connection with the delay
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    in the filing periodic reports several
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    security litigation complaints and
  • 00:06:07
    derivative suits were filed against the
  • 00:06:10
    company management believes these
  • 00:06:12
    complaints are without Merit again this
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    is not that great continuing here with
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    regards to the unaudited preliminary
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    fiscal 24 and fourth quarter fiscal 24
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    results the company is reconfirming that
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    no previously issued financial
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    statements require restatement as the
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    company Works towards completing the
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    audit it made certain adjustments to the
  • 00:06:35
    preliminary un audited results for a
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    fourth quarter of fiscal 24 that it
  • 00:06:39
    announced on August 6 2024 the
  • 00:06:42
    adjustments recorded in the results for
  • 00:06:44
    the fourth quarter of fiscal 24 include
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    an increase in net sales of
  • 00:06:48
    approximately $46 million and an
  • 00:06:51
    increase of cost of sales of
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    approximately $96 million which includes
  • 00:06:55
    a charge due to an increase in inventory
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    reserve of approximately 45 million and
  • 00:07:00
    an increase in operating expenses of
  • 00:07:02
    around $5 million now until the
  • 00:07:04
    company's fiscal 24 financial statements
  • 00:07:06
    are filed the company is required to
  • 00:07:09
    reassess its accounting estimates for
  • 00:07:11
    financial reporting so all in all small
  • 00:07:14
    changes here an increase in sales but
  • 00:07:16
    also an increase in cost of sales now
  • 00:07:21
    again the whole story here with super
  • 00:07:23
    micro is pretty clear right up until
  • 00:07:26
    February 25th you are basically saying
  • 00:07:29
    okay I think they are going to file on
  • 00:07:31
    time no delisting will happen and then
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    the stock will soar which to be honest
  • 00:07:36
    if they do not get delisted I am pretty
  • 00:07:38
    certain that this stock will go up quite
  • 00:07:41
    drastically because well if you just
  • 00:07:43
    look at the market cap you look at how
  • 00:07:45
    much revenue they are expected to
  • 00:07:46
    generate this year and next year Well if
  • 00:07:49
    you take that $40 billion number for
  • 00:07:50
    fiscal 26 and you look at the market cap
  • 00:07:53
    right now there is quite a disconnect it
  • 00:07:56
    just doesn't make any sense the stock
  • 00:07:57
    could just double based on that price to
  • 00:08:00
    sales multiple doubling right so it's
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    basically that it's basically that you
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    are waiting right now and you are
  • 00:08:08
    putting well your money on the table and
  • 00:08:09
    basically saying you know what I trust
  • 00:08:11
    management enough I trust that they will
  • 00:08:14
    file everything that's needed on time
  • 00:08:17
    they still have two weeks time and this
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    is a story that has been going on for 6
  • 00:08:21
    months so right now what we're seeing is
  • 00:08:24
    that the stock is going to make its way
  • 00:08:26
    closer to the 200 day moving average we
  • 00:08:28
    already been close closer previously
  • 00:08:30
    back in December but this time 200 day
  • 00:08:33
    moving out is a bit lower so let's see
  • 00:08:35
    let's see if this stock can manage to
  • 00:08:37
    actually maybe go above it there is also
  • 00:08:39
    a CPI report coming out on Wednesday so
  • 00:08:41
    that might affect the overall market and
  • 00:08:44
    certainly could affect a company and a
  • 00:08:46
    stock like smci but it will affect all
  • 00:08:49
    the other stocks as well whether it's
  • 00:08:50
    good or bad so yeah with smci right now
  • 00:08:54
    the results for the quarter and for next
  • 00:08:56
    quarter not good at all right misses a
  • 00:08:59
    across the board but the big big number
  • 00:09:01
    is that $40 billion in revenue for
  • 00:09:04
    fiscal 26 that came out of nowhere and
  • 00:09:06
    actually if we look at the current
  • 00:09:08
    analyst estimates we can see that that
  • 00:09:10
    number is around $10 billion more than
  • 00:09:13
    what analysts are expecting right right
  • 00:09:15
    now analysts are expecting a number
  • 00:09:17
    closer to $30 billion and smci said $40
  • 00:09:22
    billion that 10 billion dollar more 30%
  • 00:09:25
    more than what the analysts are
  • 00:09:27
    currently expecting so yeah that's going
  • 00:09:30
    to be that's going to be something to
  • 00:09:32
    watch so again bottom line here is we're
  • 00:09:35
    going to wait until February 25th
  • 00:09:37
    hopefully before that they file
  • 00:09:40
    everything everything's on time and well
  • 00:09:42
    the stock will probably probably go much
  • 00:09:45
    much higher than this do I want to take
  • 00:09:48
    a gamble here no no but I'm watching I'm
  • 00:09:52
    watching I listen to the comments that
  • 00:09:54
    they were saying with regards to Nvidia
  • 00:09:56
    Blackwell gb200 b200 okay nothing really
  • 00:10:00
    new everything's going according to
  • 00:10:02
    plans so business as usual I do want to
  • 00:10:05
    say one thing is that that earnings
  • 00:10:07
    calls where the audio is so bad I think
  • 00:10:11
    should be punishable I think that should
  • 00:10:13
    be punishable because every time audio
  • 00:10:16
    cuts off one guy asks a question the
  • 00:10:18
    other guy is still answering the other
  • 00:10:20
    question because there is a delay it's
  • 00:10:22
    horrible it's horrible and I don't even
  • 00:10:23
    want to know how the transcript is going
  • 00:10:25
    to look like so yeah there is that the
  • 00:10:28
    end of my rent here anyways that's all
  • 00:10:30
    I've got for right now that's the main
  • 00:10:32
    reason why the stock is up basically
  • 00:10:34
    because that fiscally 2026 guidance is
  • 00:10:37
    just so much higher than what the
  • 00:10:39
    analyst were expecting so that's about
  • 00:10:42
    it for me in this video if you're
  • 00:10:43
    interested in a lift video let me know
  • 00:10:45
    as well in the comment section below and
  • 00:10:47
    then tomorrow we have many other
  • 00:10:48
    companies reporting so stay tuned for
  • 00:10:50
    that hit all the buttons and I see you
  • 00:10:52
    all in the next one bye-bye
  • 00:10:56
    [Music]
Tags
  • Super Micro
  • Quarterly Figures
  • Stock Market
  • Earnings Report
  • Revenue Guidance
  • AI Infrastructure
  • Financial Challenges
  • Market Reaction
  • SEC
  • DOJ