Bitcoin Market Cycles

00:29:06
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHnqpPWJDn0

Zusammenfassung

TLDRVideoda, Bitcoin'in bugünkü piyasa döngüsünün geçmiş döngülerle karşılaştırılması yapılmaktadır. 2016-2017 piyasa döngüsüyle yalnızca ROI açısından değil, yapısal bakımdan da benzerlikler vurgulanmaktadır. Geçerli döngüde, Bitcoin'in fiyatı 2016 döngüsünün dip noktalarına yakın bir seviyede olduğu belirtiliyor ve gelecekte fiyat hareketlerinin nasıl olabileceği üzerine analizler yapılıyor. FYİ olarak Bitcoin'in piyasa yapısı, geçmiş döngülerle benzerlik gösteriyor ve bu, fiyatın doğru yönde ilerleyebileceği ihtimalini artırıyor.

Mitbringsel

  • 📈Bitcoin'in mevcut döngüsü, 2016-2017 ile benzerlikler gösteriyor.
  • 🕒ROI, mevcut döngüde geçmişe benzer şekilde ilerliyor.
  • 🔍Piyasa yapısı, geçmiş döngülerle karşılaştırıldığında tutarlı gözüküyor.
  • 📊Yakın zamanda fiyat artışları bekleniyor.
  • 💡Bitcoin, piyasanın kralı olarak diğer varlıkların performansını etkiliyor.

Zeitleiste

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Videonun başında, izleyicilere Bitcoin ve piyasa döngüleri hakkında bilgi vereceği belirtiliyor. İzleyiciler, kanala abone olmaları, videoyu beğenmeleri ve premium hizmetleri kontrol etmeleri için teşvik ediliyor. Ayrıca, Bitcoin'in mevcut piyasa döngüsündeki yeri ve önceki döngülerle olan benzerlikleri tartışılır.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    İlk olarak, Bitcoin'in piyasa döngüsü ROI'si inceleniyor. 2016-2017 döngüsüyle karşılaştırıldığında, mevcut piyasa döngüsünün ROI'sinin oldukça yakın olduğu, durumun çok fazla değişiklik göstermediği belirtiliyor. Önceki piyasa döngülerinin yapılarına benzer bir hareket olduğu vurgulanıyor ve mevcut döngünün 2016-2017 döngüsüne daha yakın olduğu ifade ediliyor.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Sonraki kısımda, Bitcoin'in 1 yıllık ROI'sinin 2x'in altına düştüğü ve bunun durumun normalleşmesi için yüksek bir fiyat gerektirdiği açıklanır. 100K'nın altına düşerse, ROI'nin düşmeye başlayacağı belirtiliyor. 2016 döngüsünün benzer kalıpları takip ederse, ilerleyen günlerde Bitcoin'in yine yükselmesi gerektiği üzerinde duruluyor.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Videonun devamında, Bitcoin'in halving sonrası ROI'sinin de 2016-2017 döngüsüne çok benzer olduğu gösterilmektedir. Ancak mevcut döngüde artış daha az görünüyor. Bu durumun, azalan getiriler nedeniyle olabileceği belirtiliyor. Tüm bu metriklerin birleşiminin gelecekteki yükselişi değerlendirmek için kullanılabileceği vurgulanmaktadır.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:29:06

    Son kısımda, Bitcoin'in 100 günlük hareketli ortalamanın destek seviyesi olarak işlev görüp görmeyeceği inceleniyor. Eğer Bitcoin bu seviyeyi kaybederse, daha uzun süreleri kapsayan güçlü bir döngü hatırlatması yapılmakta; genel olarak, piyasanın seyrinin izlenmesi gerektiği, Bitcoin'in temelde güçlü bir yapıya sahip olması nedeniyle öncelikli olarak mevcut döngülerin sürekli göz önünde bulundurulması öneriliyor.

Mehr anzeigen

Mind Map

Video-Fragen und Antworten

  • Bitcoin'in piyasa döngüleri nelerdir?

    Bitcoin'in piyasa döngüleri, tarihsel fiyat hareketleri temel alınarak analiz edilen döngülerdir, genel olarak her döngü zirve ve dip noktalarını içerir.

  • Bitcoin ROI'si nedir?

    Bitcoin ROI'si, Bitcoin'in bir piyasa döngüsü içerisindeki getirisini ölçen bir değerdir.

  • Mevcut döngü geçmiş döngülerle nasıl karşılaştırılıyor?

    Mevcut döngü, özellikle 2016-2017 döngüsü ile benzerlikler gösteriyor; ROI ve piyasa yapısı açısından bazı noktalar örtüşüyor.

  • Bitcoin fiyatının gelecekte nasıl hareket etmesi bekleniyor?

    Eğer mevcut döngü 2016-2017 döngüsüne benzerse, yakın zamanda bir fiyat artışı görülmesi bekleniyor.

  • Solana ve Ethereum gibi diğer kripto paralara nasıl yaklaşmalıyız?

    Bitcoin, genellikle piyasa lideri olduğu için bu varlıkların Bitcoin ile karşılaştırılması gerekir; Bitcoin'deki araştırmalar, diğer varlıkların gelecekteki performansı hakkında ipuçları verebilir.

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Automatisches Blättern:
  • 00:00:00
    hey everyone thanks for jumping back
  • 00:00:02
    into the cryptoverse today we're going
  • 00:00:04
    to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to
  • 00:00:06
    be discussing its Market Cycles if you
  • 00:00:09
    guys like the content make sure you
  • 00:00:10
    subscribe to the channel give the video
  • 00:00:12
    a thumbs up and also check out the sale
  • 00:00:14
    on into the cryptoverse premium at
  • 00:00:16
    intothe cryptoverse decom let's go Ahad
  • 00:00:19
    and jump in so we do this video about
  • 00:00:21
    every month or so and I I think it's a
  • 00:00:23
    good way to just kind of take a step
  • 00:00:26
    back and look where is Bitcoin in the
  • 00:00:30
    brand scheme of its Market cycle right
  • 00:00:33
    where is it uh does it match up with
  • 00:00:35
    prior Cycles is it deviating it all it's
  • 00:00:39
    a good way to to just kind of regroup
  • 00:00:41
    and see where the cycle currently is so
  • 00:00:44
    the first thing we're going to look at
  • 00:00:46
    is the Bitcoin Market cycle Roi as
  • 00:00:50
    measured from the market cycle Bottom
  • 00:00:53
    now I have five Cycles on this chart
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    cycle one and two arguably could be the
  • 00:01:01
    same cycle they could be and the reason
  • 00:01:03
    I say that is if you look at like the
  • 00:01:04
    Bitcoin chart and you go back you know
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    many many years um the peak the peak for
  • 00:01:13
    the first cycle in this case is this one
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    and then the second one is this one but
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    if you just say take the you know the Q4
  • 00:01:21
    peak of every cycle right Q4 2013 Q4
  • 00:01:25
    2017 Q4 of 2021 You could argue this is
  • 00:01:28
    one cycle by itself the reason why it
  • 00:01:31
    can make sense to break it up is because
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    that right there was like a
  • 00:01:35
    94% drop right it was a really big drop
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    which is why I have it as as two
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    separate Cycles but if you combine it
  • 00:01:43
    into one cycle it looks like that okay
  • 00:01:46
    the Blue Line it would look like that so
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    we're going to ignore that one for right
  • 00:01:51
    now because you know so far what we've
  • 00:01:54
    seen for the current cycle is that it's
  • 00:01:58
    matching the last two c CES a lot closer
  • 00:02:01
    than Market cycle one right and one of
  • 00:02:05
    the things we've mentioned is there's
  • 00:02:07
    there's some similarities between this
  • 00:02:09
    cycle and and the 2016 2017 cycle and
  • 00:02:13
    then there's other similarities between
  • 00:02:14
    this cycle and the 2019 through 2021
  • 00:02:17
    cycle and the the Sim the similarities
  • 00:02:20
    are like this right so if you measure it
  • 00:02:22
    from the bottom bitcoin's Roi right now
  • 00:02:26
    looks pretty close to where it was at
  • 00:02:30
    this point in the 2016 2017 cycle right
  • 00:02:32
    I mean as measured from the bottom day
  • 00:02:35
    828 of the cycle Bitcoin is currently up
  • 00:02:38
    about 6X in the 2016 cycle it was up
  • 00:02:42
    about 7x right so all in all that the
  • 00:02:46
    difference in Roi as measured from the
  • 00:02:48
    bottom isn't really all that much as it
  • 00:02:51
    stands right now so that's an at least
  • 00:02:54
    an important aspect of this chart to
  • 00:02:57
    kind of remind us where are we in the
  • 00:02:59
    cycle
  • 00:03:00
    now there's also some similarities with
  • 00:03:03
    two cycles
  • 00:03:05
    ago and that is if we actually ignore
  • 00:03:07
    the current cycle and we look at last
  • 00:03:09
    cycle and compare it to the 2016 cycle
  • 00:03:12
    you can see that at one point Bitcoin
  • 00:03:14
    got well ahead of where it you know
  • 00:03:16
    probably should have been in that cycle
  • 00:03:18
    right the market got heated and then we
  • 00:03:20
    had to get a 6 to n month cooldown
  • 00:03:22
    period before the cycle got back on
  • 00:03:25
    track the same thing can be said of this
  • 00:03:27
    cycle right at one point it got ahead of
  • 00:03:30
    where it was in Prior cycles and then
  • 00:03:32
    eventually it had to get back on track
  • 00:03:34
    and you can even look at it compared to
  • 00:03:36
    the 2016 cycle and see right there it
  • 00:03:38
    kind of got ahead and then it spent
  • 00:03:39
    about six nine months going down before
  • 00:03:42
    then picking back up and getting back on
  • 00:03:45
    track right so there's some similarities
  • 00:03:48
    with the 2016 2017 cycle in terms of
  • 00:03:50
    Market structure and in fact in terms of
  • 00:03:52
    Market structure it looks more similar
  • 00:03:54
    to 2016 2017 than 2019 through the 2021
  • 00:03:58
    cycle but in terms of monetary policy
  • 00:04:02
    and and and rate Cuts after you know
  • 00:04:04
    rate hikes there's some similarities
  • 00:04:06
    with the last cycle as well so it's not
  • 00:04:08
    really either one of them it it's kind
  • 00:04:10
    of a combination of both but in terms of
  • 00:04:13
    matching the market cycle Roi right now
  • 00:04:16
    it looks closer to the 2016 2017 cycle
  • 00:04:21
    now if you look at this if it's going to
  • 00:04:24
    follow the 2016 cycle it would need to
  • 00:04:28
    make another move up Rel relatively soon
  • 00:04:30
    if it's going to follow it right I mean
  • 00:04:32
    it could always deviate at some points
  • 00:04:35
    we we've seen that happen in Prior
  • 00:04:36
    Cycles it's not like every move we've
  • 00:04:39
    seen has been a perfect match right over
  • 00:04:41
    here Bitcoin moved up and in the 2016
  • 00:04:43
    cycle it didn't at the time and then it
  • 00:04:45
    took took a little bit later if you look
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    at last cycle compared to the cycle
  • 00:04:49
    before that one right there was you know
  • 00:04:52
    there was a time when it was going down
  • 00:04:53
    over here when Bitcoin was normally
  • 00:04:55
    going up right so it's not always a
  • 00:04:57
    perfect match but if you were to want to
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    you to compare this cycle to the 2016
  • 00:05:01
    2017 cycle this is where we currently
  • 00:05:04
    are now we've also looked at this
  • 00:05:06
    through the lens of the running one-year
  • 00:05:08
    Roi so if you look at the running
  • 00:05:10
    one-year Roi you can see that it has
  • 00:05:12
    fallen below two we suggest that this
  • 00:05:14
    was going likely going to happen if
  • 00:05:17
    Bitcoin did not start aggressively
  • 00:05:19
    moving up in February now the reason for
  • 00:05:22
    that is because when you're looking at
  • 00:05:24
    the one-year Roi you have to look at
  • 00:05:25
    what it was doing exactly one year ago
  • 00:05:28
    and we can see that in early February a
  • 00:05:30
    year ago Bitcoin was in fact going up
  • 00:05:32
    and it rallied to just over 50k so in
  • 00:05:36
    order for this for the running onee Roi
  • 00:05:39
    to stay at approximately 2x which is
  • 00:05:41
    about where it's been you know for the
  • 00:05:43
    last year or so we would need to see
  • 00:05:45
    Bitcoin back above
  • 00:05:47
    100K if the one-year Roi is to stay on
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    track through March then Bitcoin would
  • 00:05:54
    have to get another rally going into
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    sort of that March April time frame if
  • 00:05:59
    if it doesn't then the one-year Roi
  • 00:06:02
    could start to Decay below that 2x level
  • 00:06:06
    right that 2x oneye Roi right it would
  • 00:06:08
    start to Decay below it kind of like we
  • 00:06:11
    saw do a little bit um in in the last
  • 00:06:14
    cycle right in the 2016 2017 cycle you
  • 00:06:17
    can see that it it never really decayed
  • 00:06:19
    too much below that level um and did
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    eventually uh go much higher than a
  • 00:06:25
    one-year Ro of of just a 2x so it is
  • 00:06:28
    important to keep that in mind when
  • 00:06:30
    looking at at charts like this that you
  • 00:06:32
    know in order for it to stay at this
  • 00:06:34
    level and for it to continue to match
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    the structure from 2016
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    2017 it it can't just get complacent
  • 00:06:42
    because if it does the one-year Roi will
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    start to Decay okay now there's other
  • 00:06:50
    ways to measure this as well uh one of
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    the ways I I really like to measure the
  • 00:06:54
    Bitcoin Roi is by looking at it as
  • 00:06:56
    measured from the having and if you
  • 00:06:58
    actually look at this it also looks a
  • 00:07:00
    lot more similar to the 2016 2017 cycle
  • 00:07:03
    in terms of Roi as measured after the
  • 00:07:06
    having right looks more similar in fact
  • 00:07:09
    if anything it has started to deviate
  • 00:07:11
    because at this point in the 2016 cycle
  • 00:07:13
    Bitcoin was up about almost 2 and a half
  • 00:07:15
    X today it's up about 1 and a2x now this
  • 00:07:18
    could be an artifact of diminishing
  • 00:07:20
    returns um but it is something you know
  • 00:07:23
    to at least keep in mind that the having
  • 00:07:26
    Roi the sort of the ROI after the having
  • 00:07:28
    where it currently is now what's really
  • 00:07:30
    interesting is as measured from the
  • 00:07:32
    having for last cycle if you ignore the
  • 00:07:36
    later peak in November Bitcoin actually
  • 00:07:39
    topped on day
  • 00:07:41
    339 or so after the having right now
  • 00:07:45
    we're on day 300 right so that would
  • 00:07:49
    only be just over another month from
  • 00:07:52
    when Bitcoin actually topped last cycle
  • 00:07:55
    again it did get another rally in Q4 but
  • 00:07:58
    it was a lot more muted right it only
  • 00:08:01
    swept the high it didn't really go that
  • 00:08:03
    much higher but you can also see that
  • 00:08:06
    when that happened the ROI Bitcoin was
  • 00:08:08
    actually a lot higher at this point in
  • 00:08:11
    the cycle right and in last cycle as
  • 00:08:13
    measured from the having Bitcoin was up
  • 00:08:16
    about 6X today it's up about 1 and a2x
  • 00:08:20
    as measured from the having so there's
  • 00:08:22
    actually a lot of differences in that
  • 00:08:23
    right and that's why it looks a lot more
  • 00:08:25
    like the 2016 2017 cycle in that regard
  • 00:08:29
    now you could also look at it as
  • 00:08:31
    measured Peak to Peak this is probably
  • 00:08:34
    you know the least important way to look
  • 00:08:36
    at it but if you look at it like this
  • 00:08:39
    the one that it matches the closest is
  • 00:08:41
    the 2016 2017 cycle right sort of you
  • 00:08:44
    build out a base then you slowly go up
  • 00:08:47
    you know you build up to a new level
  • 00:08:48
    then you consolidate for a while right
  • 00:08:50
    build up to a new level consolidate and
  • 00:08:52
    when I look at a chart like this you
  • 00:08:54
    know I do have to wonder my guess is
  • 00:08:57
    that eventually this this Roi from the
  • 00:09:00
    peak will go below where it was last
  • 00:09:02
    cycle because I don't actually expect
  • 00:09:04
    Bitcoin to go up this cycle 20x from the
  • 00:09:08
    last Peak um and I I I think even the
  • 00:09:10
    most bullish people would probably agree
  • 00:09:13
    that we're not going to see Bitcoin go
  • 00:09:14
    up 20x from the last Peak within the
  • 00:09:17
    next 10 months okay I mean that would
  • 00:09:19
    put Bitcoin uh at at a really high value
  • 00:09:23
    and I just I don't think it can happen
  • 00:09:24
    this year so you'll likely see that
  • 00:09:26
    happen and so the question is is well
  • 00:09:28
    you know how does that right do we do we
  • 00:09:30
    just kind of go sideways into it do we
  • 00:09:32
    just stay just above it for as long as
  • 00:09:34
    possible before it starts to Decay if
  • 00:09:36
    you look at the last cycle and compare
  • 00:09:38
    it to the previous cycle before that one
  • 00:09:41
    you can see that at one point it got
  • 00:09:42
    above it and then it it basically
  • 00:09:45
    decayed back down to it and then got
  • 00:09:46
    another rally after it went below that
  • 00:09:49
    cycle Roi another way to look at it is
  • 00:09:53
    to actually measure it from the April
  • 00:09:55
    top and not the November top if you want
  • 00:09:57
    to take April as the more important top
  • 00:09:59
    if if you look at it like that you could
  • 00:10:01
    argue that the cycle is actually a lot
  • 00:10:03
    further along than maybe anyone's
  • 00:10:05
    expecting because if you measure it from
  • 00:10:06
    the April top we're already on day
  • 00:10:09
    14400 and and the 2016 2017 cycle topped
  • 00:10:14
    after day
  • 00:10:15
    1473 so that would be about only two
  • 00:10:18
    more months if you measure it from the
  • 00:10:20
    April top again there's a lot of
  • 00:10:22
    different ways to measure it now from a
  • 00:10:25
    structural point of view there are some
  • 00:10:28
    things that you could look at out for
  • 00:10:30
    bitcoin's you know Roi and and what it's
  • 00:10:33
    done this year compared to what it did
  • 00:10:35
    last year for instance if you look at
  • 00:10:37
    the 100 day moving average that's where
  • 00:10:39
    Bitcoin is right now that's actually
  • 00:10:42
    where it held support in January of
  • 00:10:45
    20124 before then getting another move
  • 00:10:47
    up the question is is does this move
  • 00:10:50
    happen or does something occur to
  • 00:10:53
    prevent it from happening obviously
  • 00:10:56
    anything could theoretically happen um
  • 00:10:59
    but I think that is is is sort of the
  • 00:11:01
    thing to consider and I go back and
  • 00:11:03
    forth between like you know is it is it
  • 00:11:04
    more important to look at what happened
  • 00:11:06
    last year right which would imply and
  • 00:11:09
    even not even just last year I mean
  • 00:11:10
    there's plenty of times where you get to
  • 00:11:12
    the 100 as SMA and it holds as support
  • 00:11:14
    for a while um and it can even bounce
  • 00:11:16
    higher for a while right it's not like
  • 00:11:17
    it's that unheard of and and that's
  • 00:11:19
    currently where Bitcoin is um if you
  • 00:11:23
    actually look at the 2016 cycle I I
  • 00:11:24
    remember this and you know the the the
  • 00:11:26
    more time that goes on it it it seems
  • 00:11:29
    like less and less likely to happen but
  • 00:11:31
    I will at least point it out just in
  • 00:11:33
    case it does happen if you actually look
  • 00:11:35
    at the 2016 cycle there was this high in
  • 00:11:39
    the summer of 2016 and and Bitcoin
  • 00:11:41
    actually tested that level in January of
  • 00:11:45
    2017 right it and it actually
  • 00:11:47
    corresponded to the 2016 cycle high
  • 00:11:50
    right the the the high for Bitcoin in
  • 00:11:52
    2016 now back then it also corresponded
  • 00:11:57
    to the 100 day moving average right
  • 00:11:59
    right and so today we're looking at this
  • 00:12:03
    and and Bitcoin once again is at its 100
  • 00:12:06
    day moving average right it's at its 100
  • 00:12:08
    day moving average and it's February
  • 00:12:10
    right it's it's a month later than where
  • 00:12:12
    it was back over here when it when it
  • 00:12:13
    got that bounce um and then it found
  • 00:12:16
    support around that level again in March
  • 00:12:19
    so you know if you're looking at the
  • 00:12:20
    chart like this you could say that that
  • 00:12:22
    Bitcoin will have these we periods of
  • 00:12:24
    weakness in like you know like q1 and
  • 00:12:26
    then again in in sort of Q3 right I I
  • 00:12:30
    think one thing to consider there's two
  • 00:12:32
    ways to look at it right and the more
  • 00:12:34
    bullish way is to just say well it's
  • 00:12:36
    testing the 100 day SMA which is exactly
  • 00:12:38
    what it did in q1 of 2017 right this is
  • 00:12:41
    exactly what happened and it was also
  • 00:12:43
    during a period when the dollar had
  • 00:12:46
    started to drop right the dollar the
  • 00:12:48
    dollar dropped and as the dollar was
  • 00:12:51
    dropping Bitcoin got that correction to
  • 00:12:53
    the 100 day moving average but it also
  • 00:12:55
    corresponded to the 2016 yearly High
  • 00:12:59
    this cycle it's hard to know what's more
  • 00:13:01
    important right I mean like you know
  • 00:13:03
    does it need to go back down to that
  • 00:13:05
    level I don't think it needs to do
  • 00:13:07
    anything after all Bitcoin needs a
  • 00:13:09
    reason to go down not a reason to go up
  • 00:13:12
    you know if the macro data evolves as
  • 00:13:14
    normal then you could argue that
  • 00:13:16
    bitcoin's more likely to go up than down
  • 00:13:17
    because Bitcoin doesn't need a reason to
  • 00:13:19
    go up it just goes up because people buy
  • 00:13:21
    Bitcoin um and so I guess the question
  • 00:13:24
    is will the 100 day SMA hold right here
  • 00:13:29
    here kind of like it did in 2017 uh kind
  • 00:13:32
    of like it did back over here in January
  • 00:13:35
    of
  • 00:13:39
    2024 or will it lose support and and
  • 00:13:42
    retest the 2024 High because remember in
  • 00:13:45
    the 2016 2017 cycle the correction
  • 00:13:49
    actually corresponded to they were the
  • 00:13:51
    same thing right the the the the the the
  • 00:13:53
    back test of the 202 the 2016 High also
  • 00:13:58
    corresponded to the one 100 day moving
  • 00:13:59
    average this time they're not actually
  • 00:14:02
    the same thing right the 100 day SMA is
  • 00:14:04
    all the way up here at like
  • 00:14:06
    96k what is it exactly right it's it's
  • 00:14:08
    yeah almost 97k whereas the the 2024
  • 00:14:12
    high is is back at you know 74k 73 74k
  • 00:14:17
    there's quite a big difference between
  • 00:14:19
    these two levels um at this point if you
  • 00:14:22
    actually look though at a year-to-date
  • 00:14:25
    Roi of Bitcoin in 2025 it actually
  • 00:14:29
    matches 2017 pretty closely at this
  • 00:14:31
    point so you can see that this is right
  • 00:14:33
    around where Bitcoin was in 2017 at this
  • 00:14:36
    point and then had a move up and then
  • 00:14:38
    came back down again to basically the
  • 00:14:41
    same levels that it's been at right I
  • 00:14:43
    mean Bitcoin was still below a year-to
  • 00:14:45
    DAT Roi of one as late as March in um in
  • 00:14:50
    the 2017 cycle so even if it does play
  • 00:14:52
    out like 2017 you could still see
  • 00:14:55
    Bitcoin around these prices in another
  • 00:14:58
    month month and a half even if there is
  • 00:15:01
    a rally to a higher to a to a new
  • 00:15:03
    all-time high a new cycle high right
  • 00:15:05
    even if there is a new rally to a new
  • 00:15:06
    cycle High you could come back down
  • 00:15:08
    again in March and
  • 00:15:11
    then gear up again so that's another you
  • 00:15:14
    know interesting way to to to view this
  • 00:15:17
    market and I think the way that you know
  • 00:15:22
    it would make the most sense for this
  • 00:15:23
    stuff to play out and the sort of the
  • 00:15:25
    easiest way would be that if it just
  • 00:15:27
    plays out like all prior right I mean
  • 00:15:29
    that would be nice um and it's funny cuz
  • 00:15:32
    I think you know a lot of people it's
  • 00:15:35
    like it's it's so easy to over
  • 00:15:36
    complicate things and to be like well
  • 00:15:37
    this is why it's going to be different
  • 00:15:38
    and whatnot but so far all the all the
  • 00:15:41
    Cycles have occurred with peaks in Q4 of
  • 00:15:44
    the post tabing year Q4 2013 Q4 2017 Q4
  • 00:15:48
    of 2021 so you know I think it makes
  • 00:15:51
    sense to put a lot of weight on that
  • 00:15:53
    case unless the market shows us a reason
  • 00:15:56
    not to put weight on that um
  • 00:15:59
    at this point it hasn't right at this
  • 00:16:01
    point it hasn't at this point it still
  • 00:16:03
    looks like a fairly normal cycle
  • 00:16:07
    um but there are there are periods in
  • 00:16:10
    history and I'm not I'm not saying this
  • 00:16:11
    just like you know spread fud or to
  • 00:16:13
    scare you or anything like that but
  • 00:16:15
    again there are times in history where
  • 00:16:16
    you get left translated Cycles now one
  • 00:16:18
    of the ways that you know Bitcoin could
  • 00:16:21
    sort of put those fears to rest would be
  • 00:16:23
    to just put in a new alltime high and
  • 00:16:24
    then it it would go a long way into
  • 00:16:26
    helping confirm a right translated cycle
  • 00:16:30
    but remember that when you get things
  • 00:16:32
    like inflation and and and the labor
  • 00:16:35
    market kind of out of whack it can
  • 00:16:38
    occasionally lead to left translated
  • 00:16:39
    cycles and I'm just going to provide a
  • 00:16:41
    you know a very brief example you know
  • 00:16:43
    looking at at the stock market in the
  • 00:16:45
    1970s a normal right translated cycle is
  • 00:16:48
    like this where you go up for three
  • 00:16:50
    years and down for one but occasionally
  • 00:16:52
    you get a left translated cycle where
  • 00:16:53
    you go up for two and down for two right
  • 00:16:56
    and up for two and down for two and when
  • 00:16:59
    it when it happens like that then the
  • 00:17:01
    top usually occurs at the very end of
  • 00:17:03
    the election year or the very beginning
  • 00:17:04
    of the postelection year
  • 00:17:08
    now that's not clear you it's not clear
  • 00:17:10
    yet which way this is going to break
  • 00:17:12
    right if it's a right translated cycle
  • 00:17:14
    then then you know Bitcoin should have
  • 00:17:16
    no problem putting in new all-time highs
  • 00:17:18
    as the year goes on if it's a left
  • 00:17:21
    translated cycle then Bitcoin would
  • 00:17:23
    break down at a period where it normally
  • 00:17:26
    breaks up okay so what I mean by that is
  • 00:17:31
    if like if in a month if in a month
  • 00:17:34
    Bitcoin hasn't made a new all-time high
  • 00:17:38
    right if it hasn't made a new alltime
  • 00:17:39
    high then it would start to call that
  • 00:17:43
    idea into question right at this point
  • 00:17:46
    you know it's doing what it's always
  • 00:17:47
    done it it's moved up and then gone
  • 00:17:49
    sideways right and it's just sort of
  • 00:17:50
    stair stepping its way higher so at this
  • 00:17:53
    point I don't really think you can say
  • 00:17:55
    that it looks any different than any of
  • 00:17:57
    these prior ones right right where it's
  • 00:18:00
    Consolidated after I run higher and then
  • 00:18:03
    eventually gone up as again right but
  • 00:18:07
    you know like if if in a month we're
  • 00:18:09
    sitting here and and Bitcoin hasn't put
  • 00:18:11
    in an all-time high and instead it's
  • 00:18:13
    still struggling down here then that
  • 00:18:16
    might call into question a a left
  • 00:18:18
    translated cycle um the good news is
  • 00:18:22
    that I don't really think you have to
  • 00:18:23
    sit here and and worry about it or or
  • 00:18:25
    try and predict it I think if you have a
  • 00:18:28
    left trans at cycle where the peak
  • 00:18:30
    occurs well before anyone thinks it's
  • 00:18:32
    going to you know there there would
  • 00:18:34
    likely be a macro lower high later on
  • 00:18:37
    right there would likely be a macro
  • 00:18:38
    lower yeah macro lower high like even
  • 00:18:40
    even with the S&P you know when you had
  • 00:18:43
    when you had those
  • 00:18:44
    drops and it was left translated you
  • 00:18:47
    still had you know a rally a few months
  • 00:18:50
    later that led into a macro lower high
  • 00:18:54
    then made it a lot more obvious right so
  • 00:18:57
    you didn't have to sit here and worry if
  • 00:18:59
    it was a right translated you could have
  • 00:19:01
    just you know with the S&P at 108 back
  • 00:19:03
    then um it's not like you had to worry
  • 00:19:06
    like it was a left translated cycle or
  • 00:19:07
    not it dropped and then it got a rally
  • 00:19:09
    back up to like
  • 00:19:11
    106 and as that macro lower high came in
  • 00:19:15
    it became more obvious and that occurred
  • 00:19:17
    again in the second quarter of the year
  • 00:19:20
    and in this cycle when it was left
  • 00:19:21
    translated it was a high of 121 and then
  • 00:19:24
    it had a macro lower high at 112 in
  • 00:19:27
    October right right so what I would say
  • 00:19:31
    is that you know if we are unfortunate
  • 00:19:33
    this cycle and it ends up being left
  • 00:19:36
    translated um it's probably something
  • 00:19:39
    that would become more obvious as the
  • 00:19:41
    year goes on if there is a drop when the
  • 00:19:43
    market normally goes up right um and
  • 00:19:47
    that I I think would help to sort of
  • 00:19:50
    figure out what type of cycle is it in
  • 00:19:52
    the short term I think it makes more
  • 00:19:55
    sense to hope for the best right I mean
  • 00:19:56
    hope for the best and hope that Bitcoin
  • 00:19:59
    can get another move up to a new cycle
  • 00:20:02
    High where it can then sort of put those
  • 00:20:05
    fears to rest and say you know what no
  • 00:20:07
    this is a normal right translated cycle
  • 00:20:09
    and we don't need to worry about that
  • 00:20:10
    stuff again if you look at any of this
  • 00:20:13
    stuff right you look at the year-to DAT
  • 00:20:15
    Roi it's exactly where it was in 2017 if
  • 00:20:18
    you look at the ROI from the cycle low
  • 00:20:20
    it's basically you know more or less
  • 00:20:23
    where it was in the 2016 2017 cycle
  • 00:20:26
    right a lot of this stuff is is at the
  • 00:20:29
    same spot more or less that it was at
  • 00:20:32
    back in the 2016 2017 cycle I will say
  • 00:20:34
    one more thing which again probably
  • 00:20:36
    people aren't going to even really care
  • 00:20:37
    about at this point
  • 00:20:39
    but even if Bitcoin doesn't break out
  • 00:20:41
    here and there is some type of scare in
  • 00:20:44
    the market let's say with all these
  • 00:20:46
    layoffs we're seeing sort of at the
  • 00:20:47
    federal level um if that ends up
  • 00:20:49
    spooking the market in you know a really
  • 00:20:51
    bad unemployment rate print in a month
  • 00:20:53
    or two it still doesn't even necessarily
  • 00:20:55
    mean the cycle has to be over um and the
  • 00:20:58
    reason I say that again is because well
  • 00:21:00
    in the 2016 2017 cycle Bitcoin tested
  • 00:21:04
    the the uh the 2016 high in 2017 and the
  • 00:21:08
    cycle still went on right so in that
  • 00:21:11
    case right you could argue that Bitcoin
  • 00:21:14
    could go as low as here and the cycle
  • 00:21:18
    could still theoretically be intact
  • 00:21:19
    because that's what happened in 2017
  • 00:21:22
    again I'm not not saying that's what's
  • 00:21:23
    going to happen I'm just saying that you
  • 00:21:26
    could argue that it could happen happen
  • 00:21:29
    and the cycle would still be intact
  • 00:21:31
    because in the 2016 2017 cycle when
  • 00:21:33
    Bitcoin got that drop was about a 35%
  • 00:21:35
    drop right which is about the same that
  • 00:21:37
    it would be right there right it'd be
  • 00:21:38
    about a 30% drop to get to that level
  • 00:21:40
    and ultimately the cycle did continue
  • 00:21:43
    back then so for me you know when we're
  • 00:21:46
    talking about Cycle Theory and whether
  • 00:21:48
    it's right translated or left translated
  • 00:21:50
    I would say it could go as low as the
  • 00:21:52
    mid 70s and still have a really strong
  • 00:21:55
    chance of being right translated I would
  • 00:21:57
    only really get concerned
  • 00:21:59
    if it goes and and and goes below that
  • 00:22:01
    level right like if it were to go into
  • 00:22:02
    the 60s then that would make me think
  • 00:22:06
    something
  • 00:22:07
    different um but as long as it's here or
  • 00:22:10
    higher I I think the odds of a right
  • 00:22:12
    translated cycle are higher anything
  • 00:22:15
    below the prior the the 2024 High then
  • 00:22:19
    you it kind of raises some tough
  • 00:22:20
    questions so what I would say is in the
  • 00:22:22
    short term you know we're sort of
  • 00:22:25
    entering into the window here over the
  • 00:22:27
    next few weeks where if it's going to
  • 00:22:29
    follow the 2017 cycle in terms of Roi
  • 00:22:32
    from the bottom in terms of Roi from the
  • 00:22:34
    having um it should move up right if
  • 00:22:37
    it's going to follow the prior cycle
  • 00:22:39
    especially also from the one-year Roi
  • 00:22:41
    the run the running one-year Roi it's
  • 00:22:43
    going to follow that it should move up
  • 00:22:45
    soon if there's a drop if there's a drop
  • 00:22:48
    instead then you could also look at the
  • 00:22:51
    ROI after cycle Peak and go Peak to Peak
  • 00:22:54
    and say that look I mean Bitcoin at this
  • 00:22:56
    point in the 2016 2017 cycle you know by
  • 00:23:00
    day
  • 00:23:01
    1206 was actually still 20% below the
  • 00:23:05
    prior all-time high and it still was
  • 00:23:07
    able to continue higher later on so
  • 00:23:09
    that's the way I'm currently thinking
  • 00:23:11
    about this Market trying to navigate
  • 00:23:12
    this Market um obviously we've talked
  • 00:23:15
    about Bitcoin dominance a lot over the
  • 00:23:16
    last few years and how Bitcoin leads the
  • 00:23:18
    bull market and why being Bitcoin heavy
  • 00:23:20
    makes a lot more sense than being
  • 00:23:21
    altcoin heavy you know obviously as you
  • 00:23:24
    get further into the postt year um that
  • 00:23:27
    can change bit dominance can go down in
  • 00:23:30
    post having years that's like the one
  • 00:23:31
    year that it does typically go down but
  • 00:23:33
    if it's going to go down right if it's
  • 00:23:35
    going to go down then it would it would
  • 00:23:39
    likely be if it's going to go down in
  • 00:23:41
    sort of a major way it would likely be
  • 00:23:43
    after a major Market cycle top like a
  • 00:23:46
    major parabolic rally by Bitcoin um
  • 00:23:50
    that's when you had sort of these major
  • 00:23:52
    alt seasons in the past was after
  • 00:23:54
    Bitcoin topped out right and so you know
  • 00:23:58
    there's still a lot to be said of of you
  • 00:24:00
    know just kind of sticking with the king
  • 00:24:03
    um and and and just being patient and
  • 00:24:07
    and you know sort of navigating it that
  • 00:24:09
    way as I've said before you're not going
  • 00:24:11
    to find me uh with dominance above 60%
  • 00:24:14
    like I don't know how much higher it's
  • 00:24:15
    going to go uh it's always possible that
  • 00:24:18
    it's topped out we are seeing the dollar
  • 00:24:20
    drop and it also dropped around the same
  • 00:24:22
    time in in 2017 as well the 10year yield
  • 00:24:25
    has been dropping recently overall
  • 00:24:27
    that's going to be a drag
  • 00:24:29
    um or the dollar dropping is is
  • 00:24:31
    favorable for you know global net
  • 00:24:33
    liquidity um so as long as the Dollar's
  • 00:24:36
    dropping it could still be a headwind
  • 00:24:38
    for things like Bitcoin dominance but
  • 00:24:41
    that's what I think right now guys of of
  • 00:24:43
    this Market cycle and and and what I'm
  • 00:24:45
    looking for over the next few weeks um
  • 00:24:47
    so if it's a normal cycle normal right
  • 00:24:49
    translated it should move higher uh if
  • 00:24:52
    it if it's going to be left
  • 00:24:54
    translated then you should see a drop
  • 00:24:57
    when it would normally go up so you
  • 00:24:59
    would see a drop into March or April
  • 00:25:01
    rather than rise into
  • 00:25:05
    marchapril so hope for the best and and
  • 00:25:08
    we'll see what happens here as the uh as
  • 00:25:10
    the next few weeks uh take hold and also
  • 00:25:13
    you know watch the SMP as well I mean
  • 00:25:15
    the S&P right now is is you know right
  • 00:25:17
    around 6100 it's so it's kind of right
  • 00:25:19
    around the prior all-time highs right
  • 00:25:20
    the the S&P right now is is right around
  • 00:25:23
    the prior alltime highs um so this is
  • 00:25:25
    also a really important level I imagine
  • 00:25:28
    that if the S&P 500 can break out of
  • 00:25:31
    this level then it increases the
  • 00:25:34
    likelihood that Bitcoin could follow
  • 00:25:35
    suit right because I mean if you look at
  • 00:25:38
    the the current highs by the S&P right
  • 00:25:40
    you had one in December one in January
  • 00:25:42
    and you have one right now uh with
  • 00:25:44
    Bitcoin you had one in December one in
  • 00:25:47
    January and you don't have one right now
  • 00:25:49
    bitcoin's still below 100K so if the S&P
  • 00:25:52
    can break out then it would raise the
  • 00:25:54
    likelihood that Bitcoin could um
  • 00:25:58
    if it can't break out then it would it
  • 00:26:02
    would probably diminish a lot the
  • 00:26:03
    ability of of Bitcoin to to do the
  • 00:26:06
    same and and so we're going to go ahead
  • 00:26:08
    and wrap it up there I was going to I
  • 00:26:09
    was thinking about maybe talking about
  • 00:26:10
    eth a little bit but you know those are
  • 00:26:12
    my general views on the market uh
  • 00:26:14
    hopefully you guys like the content if
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    you do make sure you give the video a
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    thumbs up and subscribe to the channel
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    and check out into the cryptoverse
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    premium at intothe cryptoverse
  • 00:26:26
    [Music]
  • 00:26:28
    if there is a drop in the Market at a
  • 00:26:31
    time when the market normally goes
  • 00:26:33
    up then it would likely cause e to to
  • 00:26:37
    fall
  • 00:26:38
    below um you know the current levels
  • 00:26:41
    because it would likely be a drag on on
  • 00:26:43
    something like eth now with eth eth
  • 00:26:46
    Bitcoin to me looks relatively low right
  • 00:26:49
    I don't know if eth U if eth Bitcoin has
  • 00:26:52
    bottom jet I do know that last cycle it
  • 00:26:55
    was exactly right around the time that
  • 00:26:58
    ethusd broke this higher low structure
  • 00:27:02
    that's where eth Bitcoin bottomed right
  • 00:27:04
    so if there is a drop when there's not
  • 00:27:07
    normally a drop it likely means that the
  • 00:27:10
    fed's going to come to the rescue you
  • 00:27:11
    would get a lot looser monetary policy
  • 00:27:13
    and it would allow some of these other
  • 00:27:15
    assets to bottom out against Bitcoin in
  • 00:27:17
    a more conclusive way right so if the
  • 00:27:19
    stock market does drop when it normally
  • 00:27:21
    would go up causing eth to drop a little
  • 00:27:25
    bit right there right if it if it drops
  • 00:27:27
    into here that would actually more
  • 00:27:30
    convincingly allow eth Bitcoin to bottom
  • 00:27:32
    out if you look at like the S&P and you
  • 00:27:34
    overlay it with eth USD back then ethusd
  • 00:27:38
    had that drop below the higher low
  • 00:27:40
    support level on an S&P 500 correction
  • 00:27:44
    right even though the S&P was still in a
  • 00:27:45
    macro bull market right um that's what
  • 00:27:48
    ultimately caused eth USC to lose
  • 00:27:50
    support and to fade uh for a little bit
  • 00:27:54
    and then a lot looser monetary policy
  • 00:27:56
    came in and and um you know the FED cut
  • 00:27:59
    rates a lot back then and then we saw a
  • 00:28:03
    massive surge in in both ethereum and
  • 00:28:06
    the S&P 500 so you know I think that
  • 00:28:09
    with this in mind there's like an
  • 00:28:11
    obvious way to navigate the cycle in my
  • 00:28:13
    opinion right as an investor no one
  • 00:28:15
    really knows what's going to happen but
  • 00:28:17
    again if it if it's a a right translated
  • 00:28:21
    cycle and and Bitcoin does not show any
  • 00:28:22
    weakness in the short term then Bitcoin
  • 00:28:24
    will likely lead the bull market if
  • 00:28:26
    there's a correction it will it it could
  • 00:28:29
    still be a right translated cycle but it
  • 00:28:31
    would allow for Bitcoin dominance to
  • 00:28:34
    more convincingly top out allow for
  • 00:28:36
    things like e Bitcoin more convincingly
  • 00:28:37
    bottom and then we would we would still
  • 00:28:39
    be in the cycle but it might change the
  • 00:28:41
    conditions of the cycle right it it
  • 00:28:43
    might allow some of these assets that
  • 00:28:44
    are bleeding to actually start
  • 00:28:46
    outperforming Bitcoin in a more durable
  • 00:28:48
    way but until something like that
  • 00:28:49
    happens you know it's it's been pretty
  • 00:28:52
    pretty safe to assume that Bitcoin will
  • 00:28:54
    outperform most other assets and so um
  • 00:28:58
    you know I I think until there's an
  • 00:28:59
    obvious change in the structure of the
  • 00:29:00
    market that's the safest assumption
  • 00:29:03
    again I'm going to go ahead and wrap it
  • 00:29:03
    up I'll see you guys next time bye
Tags
  • Bitcoin
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