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Hello friends welcome friends you know
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that the budget document came out after
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the budget was announced that which is
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of25 26 now if you look at the budget
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summary at glance you will notice that
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we have they have captured all the
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numbers right at the face of this
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document you'll find that the revenue
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reedt numbers have slightly increased
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from the total revenue received numbers
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have slightly increased and the tax
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Revenue part has increased from 25 lakh
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CR which is the revised estimate 25.5 6
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lakh cor to
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2837 lakh crores and the non- tax part
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of of of the revised estimate was 5.31
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lakh crores has increased to 5.83 lakh
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crots right these together forms 32.2
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lakh crots now why I'm emphasizing on
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this particular point because the
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physical deficit number if you look at
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the fiscal deficit number it is now in
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absolute term lower than the revised
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estimate of last Financial year which is
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15.69 lakh crores was the number for the
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last Financial year which is fi25 right
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so you look at the fiscal deficit number
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in absolute terms uh this number which
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is today in absolute term is 15.68%
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gdv in absolute term which is fantastic
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right so now the fiscal deficit has been
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pegged at
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4.4 lakh cres now in order to bring down
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fiscal deficit to this level the
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government of India had to do lot of
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work lot of work means it had to ensure
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that its Revenue receipts do not go down
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and the expenditure that it it does in
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terms of Revenue as well as capital
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expenditure especially the capital
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expenditure part also does not go down
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otherwise what will happen is it will
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have a spillover impact on the economic
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growth though they wanted to bring the
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revenue expenditure down but it wanted
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to it prevented the capital expenditure
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to go down significantly and therefore
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it is important that the in income part
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is not drastic was not drastically
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driven down so before this budget I
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actually had an apprehension that there
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will be government is going to face a
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lot of problem in able to extract and
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make the non- tax revenue which is
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roughly around 177% of the total revenue
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received it is going to struggle to
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achieve this number 5.83 lakh cores now
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you may ask why I am basically raising
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this particular point the reason I'm
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raising this particular point is you
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will find it very very interesting and I
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always try to bring facts which are
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interesting on the table because General
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things are all available in the in the
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marketplace people are already analyzing
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it now when I take you through one of
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the uh Ministries budget you will
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understand that how this non- tax part
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of the revenue actually had increased
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initially because of a spending of a
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particular line item of a particular
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Ministry now you may be you may be
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asking a question why spend of of an
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item of a particular in industry is
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leading to increase in receipt which is
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non- tax revenue are you not surprised
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so let me just show you that this year
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that Ministry is not spending that much
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amount of money in that line item
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therefore I thought that this item non-
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tax revenue will be at risk but somehow
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the government has been able to bail
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themselves out and for that I'm going to
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take you through the details of non-t
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tax revenue and map it to that
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Ministries line items to show you that
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how in earlier years the spend of on a
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particular item of that Ministry was
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leading to these non- tax revenue
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numbers bumped up so that the tax
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revenue collection can be shown at a
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higher pedestal because a fiscal deficit
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had to be controlled you can't basically
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show a higher fiscal deficit otherwise
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people will get scared right our economy
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is going to lose people will lose
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confidence in our economy so let's go
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into the the details of non- tax revenue
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which is pretty important tax part we'll
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talk later but non- tax revenue is very
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very important is roughly 17% of the
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total receipt Revenue receipt so here is
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the receipt budget which gives us the
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details of non- tax revenue you will
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find that non- tax revenue has various
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components one is interest received
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which is not very high because if you
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look at the interest R it around 47 K
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cres right what was the number of
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non-tax Revenue which we saw we saw it
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around 5.83 lakh cres right so FIS this
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particular item the first item is not
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very significant and it had been
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maintained in that level which which has
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got slightly increased not very much
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right then comes one important item
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which is so important that you'll you'll
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without it which non- tax revenue part
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cannot be managed what is that dividend
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and profits and this dividend profits
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especially coming from Reserve Bank of
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India The Reserve Bank of India is
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giving dividend to the government
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because of higher profits that it is
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able to earn because of high interest
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rates especially in Us and other part of
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the because it invest its foreign
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exchange or the amount of money that
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holds in us and where if you are getting
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an higher interest rate because the US
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Bond rates were higher this leads to a
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higher income so this year also Reserve
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Bank of India is going to give a a in uh
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income to the government in terms of
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profits to to the tune of 2.56 lakh CR
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so this is very significant because of
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this the uh non- tax revenue actually
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has been able the government has been
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able to maintain that non- tax revenue
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to the level that we see today and which
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has been able to drive fiscal deficit
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numbers lower so the total interest and
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received on because of dividend profit
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dividend profit comes from two two
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places one is the public sector and is
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Reserve Bank of India so it is it is
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higher than what it was was earlier by a
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number roughly around 50 k crots right
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so this is so this this number and this
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number is also high so together if you
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see that because no actually these two
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numbers added together is this number so
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it is around 50k cres right then comes
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the fiscal Services which is very very
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less so you can ignore it now comes the
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services all type of services we have
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got General Services then we have got
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Social Services then you have got
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economic services and then we have got
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down below Railway Revenue which just
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get subtracted Ned out and then the
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total Services is right here down below
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and you can see that the total Services
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numbers have actually dipped you can see
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that the number has actually dipped from
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earlier here here is where the problem
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was and problem is today why this number
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has actually dipped because the number
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was for the budget year budget estimate
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for fi 2 was
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182 uh 1.82 lakh cres and then revised
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number is 1.74 lakh cres now it is lower
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by lower it it is lower which is 1.58
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lakh crores now why this number was
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higher in these in these years in these
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years and why it is lower and how this
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number was able to keep the non- tax
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revenue numbers higher so as to have a
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lower fiscal deficit it is important to
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understand that for that I'm going to
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take you through the uh budget document
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or the expenditure pattern of Ministry
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of Department of telecommunication Do's
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expenditure now you will understand what
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is going on now if you look at Do's
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expenditure this is also following a
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camel kind of curve can you see this it
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actually has see if you look at in
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200000 uh f522 the actual spend was 13
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uh 7K cores then in
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2023 the number went the Revis estimate
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number was 81k CRS and then in fi 25 uh
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24 the number went up to 98 K cors and
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then in in fi 20 25 the revised estimate
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number is 1.24 lakh crores and then
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suddenly the number went down right can
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you see that it is went down but this
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time this year the spend which the
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department of telecommunication is doing
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is only how much it is 81k crores almost
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at far with what it did revise estimate
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in fi23 now you may ask why Department
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of telecommunication is spending less
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why it was spending earlier so high
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though BSNL network is the major
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component of is the capital inflation in
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BSNL Network so you'll see that the the
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as the BSNL invest investment or the
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spend was increasing right the uh the
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spend for Department of
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telecommunication expenditure also
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increasing it all depends on BSNL as you
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see that the BSNL number for fi25 was 82
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83 83 kods right you see 83 kods and it
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has slightly dipped and then this year
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it is 33.7 K cores and that's why it has
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brought the number down so this Capital
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infusion of BSNL actually plays a very
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very important role in non- tax revenue
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and people will not believe that why
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because a large portion of this this
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value this number is actually uh for
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spectrum so when the government of India
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uh India issues Spectrum to BSNL the
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BSNL gives back the value of the
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spectrum to the government of India in
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terms of equity and that Equity is shown
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by the government of India in terms of
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non- tax revenue this is the non- tax
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revenue right you see this non- tax
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revenue now where is this number
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captured let's look at this number then
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only we will be able to map right what
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is going on so you look at when you go
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to this item economic Services right
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which is a significant part of the non-
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tax revenue which I showed you so this
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is the economic Services total economic
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services and in the revised estimate the
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number was 1.74 lakh cres now it has
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gone down to 1.58 lakh crores now in
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this line item one important line item
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which you will notice is this line item
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other Communication service now other
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Communication Service is what other
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communication Services is the income
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that the government of India is drawing
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from mainly from the Telecom sector now
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here a major portion of this income
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comes from license fee Spectrum fee and
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auction fee auction
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collection and this on top of this the
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equity that BSNL is giving to the
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government when spectrum is granted to
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them the equity that the government of
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India gets from BSNL is added to this
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number and that is why if you look at
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this number suddenly has gone down from
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1.23 lakh crores to 84 82.4 lakh sorry
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82 1,000 cres because the industry
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revenue is increasing right industry
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actually is growing you know if you look
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at the Telecom industry the revenues are
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growing therefore the license fee and
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the Spectrum fee is also going def
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payment of auction is still going to be
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there as it was there was a moratorium
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so there is no impact on that so if you
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look at these numbers these numbers
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actually should have remained stable or
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should be increasing why it has dipped
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here
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now right so you should get this
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question why the other communication
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Services collections of the government
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in terms of non- tax revenue has
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decrease that is why this number this
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total number which I basically was
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talking to you in the initial stage of
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non- tax revenue which we saw in the
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summary document of 5.83 lakh crores was
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at risk if this if the government of
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India was not able to collect huge
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amount of money money from dividend and
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profits which it is collecting right now
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its non- tax revenue numbers would have
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dropped because of lack of spending in
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BSNL mtnl in terms of notional numbers
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which is mainly Spectrum right so that
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is what the key point is so government
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has been able to bail themselves out on
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this number because of why because the
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dividend and profits have delivered well
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RBI is going to give the government good
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amount of dividends and the public
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sector is also give good dividends to
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the government and that is why this
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number is much higher than what is the
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revised estimate not much higher but
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Higher by 50k and then there are other
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items in the general Services which has
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bailed the government if you look at you
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know it add all added up for example if
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you see that uh uh the administrative
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Services total administrative Services
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The Collection was uh you know the
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estimated collection is 26k cres from a
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revised estimate of 17K cres right then
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if you go down below uh you'll find that
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so there is nothing here uh you know the
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total collection if you add this General
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Services is from 21k cres has increased
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to 33k cres so the government of India
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has able to make money from General
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Services Social Services numbers have
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increased from 64 6
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6,400 cres to 11 k cors right and
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economic Services number have decreased
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from if you see decreased from
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174 uh 1.74 lakh cres to 1.58 lakh
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crores mainly on account of the reason
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which I told you other Communication
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Service and government of India has been
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able to somehow bump up his revenue and
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they were able to prevent a sharper dip
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here if it was a sharper dip then the
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non- tax revenue would have
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significantly be under risk so this
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number has not gone down significantly
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and then there is a small amount of
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Grant in it and if you look at this
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number the number actually looks very
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very
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respectable that has been able to drive
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our fiscal deficit number to a value
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which is quite respectable and we should
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be quite happy with it because in
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absolute term this number is lower than
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the revised estimate for the last year
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so friends I will not go you know more
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deeper in this particular video I wanted
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to capture this issue very clearly so
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that people understand that there are
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certain things in the budget which are
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notional in nature which are both you
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know scapic which are both in spend as
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well as captured in earnings which kind
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of gives a little bit of you know how do
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I say this it it it can be called as
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something which is not real so there and
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that has to be managed in order to
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ensure that you know things go don't go
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aier because of a certain change in
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numbers in near future because
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government doesn't have to give more
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Spectrum to BSNL and therefore
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government will not be able to get more
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Equity from BSNL which they cannot show
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in non- tax revenue tomorrow I will do
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subsequent video and going deeper into
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capex spend of the government how it has
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changed how the government of India has
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been able to make its capex spend number
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still higher and where they have seen
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dip and then I'm going to go
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specifically into Ministry especially
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the do and the ministry of Information
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Technology to understand that which
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projects the focus of the government of
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India is and that will give us a flavor
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that what kind of uh projects like you
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know AI or make in India P where the
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government of India has focused and
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where the max money is getting ped right
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so we'll come back with with that
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analysis tomorrow and I'll end this uh
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this video You Know by thanking you for
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watching to the end I'll come back with
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a new video next time uh tomorrow
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morning I'll do a detailed video on the
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topic which I I just mentioned thank you
00:17:08
very much
