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you Jessica theme hi this is Brian
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Cramer welcome back to deli MC world
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very excited to be here with Kevin
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Kelley New York Times bestselling author
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of the inevitable I love that title yes
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understanding the 12 technological
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forces that will shape our future
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there's 12 of them yes if you can master
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those you'll be all set and that's it
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yeah exactly all right thank you guys
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for coming and we'll see you soon
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tell me about the book the book is about
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the next 25 years in the digital realm
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what's coming and I think that most of
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what is going to happen is unpredictable
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in the specifics what products are gonna
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win what companies but the longer-term
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trends are something that we can
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actually predict because they're
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happening right now and my book outlines
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those longer form factors that are
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occurring and will continue to occur and
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we can not only Bank on them but I think
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we should embrace them because by
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embracing them we can make the most of
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their benefits and we can minimize their
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harm give give us some examples so an
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example would be tracking more and more
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of our lives are being tracked we self
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track with quantified self our friends
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are tracking us with our pictures that
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they're tagging on the social networks
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cameras track us companies track us
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governments tracker so it's in 50 years
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25 years we're gonna be more tracked
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than we are right now um that's
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inevitable what's not inevitable is what
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we do about it how we track who benefits
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whether it's symmetrical or asymmetrical
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those are the things we have choices
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about and that's what I think we should
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we have to understand that more tracking
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is inevitable but we can do something
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about it
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when when you say we can do something
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about it what is it what do you about we
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have choices about how how we're being
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tracked in other words we're gonna be
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tracked but is it symmetrical so the
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problem with tracking is they are
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tracking me and I don't know what
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know about me I can't correct if it's
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wrong it can't hold them accountable and
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I get no benefit but if if I can track
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who's tracking me if it goes both ways
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and then I can hold them accountable and
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then and and I can get some benefit
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that's that works so um okay so any
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other examples that might fit what we're
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talking about yeah so cognition the
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making smarter of everything
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also known as artificial intelligence
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right that is something that's going to
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happen more and more it's inevitable we
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can't stop it we can embrace it and try
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to steer it
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we can teach ethics we could have
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moralities we can have values we can we
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can regulate it we can do all those
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things but it's kind of becoming those
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robots and AIS are coming they're coming
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in they're inevitable but we have some
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choice about what we how they come so a
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lot is still yet to be determined
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absolutely we have a lot of choice even
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though a lot of this technology is
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inevitable so a lot of our viewers right
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now are coming at technology from a
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business perspective how do you think
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these forces relate to the direction
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business is moving in and how how's it
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going to affect companies in the future
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yeah this is the most amazing time in
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history to be trying to make something
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because the tools have never been better
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distribution to an access to the
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customers have never been easier sure
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there's more competition but there's
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more and more opportunities than ever
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before in history and compared to where
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we're going this is the best time in the
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world ever because of all the huge
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unleashing of the opportunities coming
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from artificial intelligence and virtual
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reality we're just at the dawn we're
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just at the beginning this is like going
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back into 1980 at the beginning of the
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internet imagine if you were alive and
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well at the beginning of the internet
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when you could claim any domain name you
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wanted for free that's what it was back
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then right and and so we're at the same
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level right now where you can take
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anything you want and a day
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that's you can buy a you don't have to
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make it you could just purchase it so we
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are at the first hour of the first day
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yeah ahead of us so it's a fantastic
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opportunity for business yeah man and
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you're set you're saying that this is in
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the next 50 years that we're gonna see
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that transformation absolutely so the
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the artificial intelligence revolution
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is equal or surpassing the first
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Industrial Revolution yeah which made
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everything in this room made everything
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in this city which has made everything
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that we're serving right is is a product
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of the first Industrial Revolution yeah
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where we harnessed artificial power
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could before then you had to make
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everything with muscle power animal or
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human now we can make things with this
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250 when you when you turn your switch
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on your car and drive down the road you
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harness who summoned the equivalent of
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250 horses to do whatever you want
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that's artificial power and now we're
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gonna add artificial intelligence right
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to those two 250 horses we'll add 250
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minds and you have the self-driving car
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and that's going to make a Second
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Industrial Revolution that surpassed
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what we've seen in the changes in our
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lives from the first one right right
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many of these forces that you're talking
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about are rooted in in software than in
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hardware right do you do you agree with
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that yes do you see it that way
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yes so one of the other shifts one of
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the other trends that's been happening
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for decades and will continue even more
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so is this shift from products to
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services from nouns to verbs from things
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to processes from hardware to software
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so that's that that will continue where
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we have the dematerialization where we
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substitute atoms with bits okay so we we
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make things do more with less atoms less
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material and that's a shift from from
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basically the dominance of hardware to
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software and so that's certainly another
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thing that's going on great
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what are what are some things that
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you've already seen or are seeing
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starting to become more of a big deal in
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our world as a result of what you're
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talking about
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well besides that shift they just
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mentioned from hardware to software and
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things to processes is this shift from
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the benefits of owning things to the
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benefits of accessing things so if you
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can summon something in rapid delivery
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or instantaneous delivery of digital or
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instant manufacturing with 3d printing
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if you can have instant access to
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everything when you want it why would
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you own anything right why would you if
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you can have any reach and get any music
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in the world any time why would you own
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it yeah okay if you could have access to
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a car any time that you wanted why would
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you why would you own it right if you
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could have access to clothes anytime
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why would you own it or furniture it
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comes in you use it for day giggles
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maybe underwear you would on your own
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maybe undo it right so there there is
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many ways in which we are shifting the
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default from ownership to access okay so
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it's not that you will own nothing it's
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just that the default will come to ya
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accessing it and there will be many ways
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in which you may choose to own this or
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that because of some affection because
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of convenience but the benefits of
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ownership are diminishing and the
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benefits of access are increasing so in
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your book you talk about the idea of
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questioning and as one of your forces
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but it's not just about the questions is
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about asking complex questions tell me
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about that
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so it turns out that with Google and
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machine intelligence that if you want an
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answer to something you ask a machine
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but because because answers become cheap
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ubiquitous free accurate good so they
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become a commodity they become
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ubiquitous and in that environment where
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answers are free and cheap what becomes
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valuable and scarce are good questions
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and so machines make answers and what
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humans are going to be about is asking a
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good question
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the results of education the highly
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educated person will be a person who can
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ask a good question and so the question
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is what's a good question
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well a good question and besides kind of
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throwing off answers actually generates
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more new good questions a good question
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leads to other good cultures sure and so
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it turns out that what humans are really
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good at is asking questions and so the
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better you can ask questions yeah the
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better and so and so we have this shift
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away from and I think schools and even
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companies asking trying to give answers
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and then shifting it to like what's a
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good question right okay and so this is
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kind of like the old Peter Drucker
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distinction he said you know in the old
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way in the old world in the gestural
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world your job was to do it was to do
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your job right and in this new world
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it's to do the right job that requires a
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question mm-hmm so it's not just
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providing answers is not just providing
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what it's always asking the good
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question it's almost like we're entering
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into in the knowledge era
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we're in well it's more than knowledge
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because that's a knowledge in certain
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sense is gonna be ubiquitous and cheap
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we're entering into the discovery era
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asking questions is the type of
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discovery so as you look in the future
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is there something in particular you're
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wary of and to end on a positive
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something that you know equally you're
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equally excited about well I mean yeah
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I'm over-the-top optimistic about this
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technology and people will often ask me
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it might worried about anything
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technological yes I am I'm worried about
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cyber war and cyber conflict and the
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reason why I'm concerned about that is
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for several reasons one it's because
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it's very difficult to make a tribution
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to figure out what's going on and right
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now none of the state governments are
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acknowledging the extent to which they
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are involved in this and there are no
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rules in conventional warfare we have
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acceptable practices that we won't do
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certain things we have no consensus
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right now among
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anybody about what's acceptable and
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what's not and my fear is that it's
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going to require some terrible disaster
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before we will come to some agreement
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about no you can't do that Wow and and
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all the sides are doing it yeah make no
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mistake about that
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and then as we weaponize AI and we have
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robot soldiers and drones that actually
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have the kill decision and make those
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decisions we we aren't yet prepared for
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that yeah we aren't written you have to
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train in ethics and morality which is we
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can do if we know what our morality
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ethics are that's the hard part is that
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we actually are as humans are not very
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good in ethics we're not very consistent
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we're not very deep we think we are but
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we're really not and we know that
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because when we try to teach it to the
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AIS we realize oh my gosh we're terrible
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and and the one thing that you're
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equally excited by I in about in about
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30 seconds I am so excited about the new
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opportunities and the new jobs they're
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gonna be created by AI and robots they
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will take away certain tasks and they
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would do it better but they are gonna
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help us invent so many more new things
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that we want to do any new thing you
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think it will help us invent I think
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it's gonna help us invent new ways of
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thinking and will solve some problems
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that we can't solve by our own human
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intelligence well this is gonna be an
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interesting world in the in the next 50
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years I'm excited to see it's gonna
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happen in the next 10 or 20 years
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senator 20 years Wow
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so it's it's coming yeah welcome to the
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new revolution thank you so much for
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joining me here today I really
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appreciate it it's my pleasure thank you
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for asking great questions
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you got obviously a human yes a human
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who's written a book about so
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congratulations on the great books and
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and I will we'll talk to you soon
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great thank you okay thank you so much
