00:00:00
South Korea is over.
00:00:03
This sounds brutal, but South Korea will soon
start melting on all fronts –
00:00:08
demographically, economically,
socially, culturally and militarily.
00:00:13
Because for decades the country
has been experiencing a fertility crisis
00:00:18
unprecedented in human history.
00:00:20
And we’ve probably reached a point of no return.
00:00:23
By 2060, the South Korea we
know and love today will no longer exist.
00:00:29
What will the collapse look like and
why is it now almost impossible to stop?
00:00:35
The (Real) Population Bomb
00:00:38
To have a stable population you need
a fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman.
00:00:43
In the 1950s South Koreans
used to have 6 children on average.
00:00:48
In the 1980s the rate fell below 2.
00:00:51
And in 2023 it was 0.72 kids per woman,
the lowest ever recorded in history.
00:00:58
In Seoul fertility is even lower, around 0.55.
00:01:02
On average, about half of the women here
won’t have any kids and the other half just one.
00:01:08
What do these numbers actually mean in the real world?
00:01:12
If fertility stays as it is, then
100 South Koreans will have 36 kids.
00:01:17
When they grow up, they will
have 13 kids, who will then have 5.
00:01:22
Within 4 generations
100 South Koreans will turn into 5.
00:01:27
If we look at today's South Korean
population pyramid we see this is pretty real:
00:01:31
There's only one 1-year-old for four 50-year-olds.
00:01:34
After 4 decades below the replacement
level, the consequences were still largely invisible.
00:01:40
Today South Korea's
population is at an all-time high,
00:01:42
as are its workforce and
its GDP, which is still growing.
00:01:46
But demographics hits you like a freight train,
00:01:48
you hear it vaguely in the distance
00:01:50
and then it runs you over.
00:01:53
South Korea is about to be hit.
00:01:56
Let’s time-travel 35 years into the future,
00:01:59
to 2060,
00:02:00
and see what the country will look like then.
00:02:03
When it comes to demographics,
00:02:05
the most commonly used
projections are those put together by the UN.
00:02:08
They envisage 3 scenarios:
low fertility, medium and high.
00:02:13
But in the past, all medium UN projections for
South Korea have consistently been too positive.
00:02:19
Between 2022 and 2023 alone,
fertility in South Korea dropped by another 8%.
00:02:25
So we are going to use the
latest low fertility scenario,
00:02:29
which has been the most
accurate in the last few years.
00:02:31
Keep in mind that we are still talking about projections
00:02:34
and the future is a far away land.
00:02:37
Ok!
00:02:38
Let’s do it.
00:02:40
In 2060 South Korea’s
population pyramid will look like this:
00:02:44
The population will have shrunk by 30%, 16 million
South Koreans will have disappeared in just 35 years.
00:02:51
And it will be the oldest country in human history.
00:02:55
One in two South Koreans will be over the age of 65.
00:02:58
Less than 1 in 10 will be under 25.
00:03:02
And only 1 in 100 will be small children.
00:03:06
Imagine waking up in a country
00:03:07
where the streets are strangely quiet
00:03:09
with no children playing on them.
00:03:12
Entire cities have been abandoned.
00:03:14
Half of the population is elderly and living
either alone or in overcrowded retirement homes.
00:03:20
With a minority of people
desperately trying to keep society running.
00:03:25
There will be a few major consequences:
00:03:28
Economic Collapse
00:03:30
In 2023 a breathtaking 40% of South
Koreans over 65 lived below the poverty line,
00:03:36
but in 2060 this number
may seem lovely in comparison.
00:03:41
Today South Korea has one
of the largest pension funds in the world,
00:03:45
worth about $730 billion.
00:03:48
But it is projected to stop growing in the
2040s and be completely depleted by the 2050s.
00:03:54
So in 2060 pensions will have
to be paid by the working population.
00:03:59
Estimates vary, but for a pension
system to work, the minimum a society needs
00:04:03
is between 2 to 3 workers per
retiree paying for them with their taxes.
00:04:08
But even if we assume that all
South Koreans over 15 will be working in 2060,
00:04:13
the country will have less than one worker per senior.
00:04:16
Workers will be unable to stem the incredible costs.
00:04:20
So not only will poverty among the elderly
be common, but a big chunk will be forced to work.
00:04:25
Except, they may not be able
to find jobs because by 2060,
00:04:29
the South Korean
economy may have collapsed.
00:04:32
Broadly speaking, the size of an
economy is linked to the size of its workforce –
00:04:36
to have a big economy you need
a lot of workers to produce a lot of things,
00:04:40
and a lot more people to buy them.
00:04:42
Today, South Korea has about 37 million people
of working age, generating a GDP of about $1.7 trillion.
00:04:50
But by 2060 its workforce will have
shrunk to less than half, to about 17 million.
00:04:56
Of course technological progress
means that productivity will be higher
00:05:00
and each individual will
probably produce more than today.
00:05:03
But even if productivity keeps growing at the
same rate or more than we’ve seen in the last decades,
00:05:08
South Korea’s GDP could peak in the 2040s.
00:05:11
In other words South Korea will
enter a permanent economic recession.
00:05:16
There are more optimistic projections
that see the recession begin as late as 2050,
00:05:20
but they are based on the
medium UN demographic scenario –
00:05:23
and there are no signs that we are heading there.
00:05:26
Another factor in the economy is
science, technology and innovation,
00:05:30
areas in which big leaps are typically
made by young adults and the middle aged.
00:05:34
Young people have fresh ideas
that contribute to the wealth of society.
00:05:38
Significantly fewer people working
also means way less tax for the government,
00:05:42
which will be trapped between a rock and a hard place.
00:05:45
On the one hand having to provide
for half the population that are seniors,
00:05:48
on the other seeing its income diminished.
00:05:51
It will be forced to shut down or cut
essential services like hospitals or social benefits.
00:05:56
Since infrastructure only works at
scale, smaller communities may be abandoned
00:06:01
as the country contracts into its metropolitan areas.
00:06:04
And of course there won’t be
enough money to invest in the future.
00:06:08
This is bad.
00:06:09
But what will happen to South
Korean society and culture may be worse.
00:06:14
Societal and Cultural Collapse
00:06:17
Speculating on how
societies will develop is extra hard,
00:06:20
but there are a few pretty unavoidable trends.
00:06:23
Today already about 20% of Koreans live alone.
00:06:27
Also 20% report having no close friends or relatives.
00:06:31
By 2060, 50% of South
Koreans aged 70 will have no siblings
00:06:36
and 30% will have no children.
00:06:38
Young adults between 25
and 35 will only make up 5% of the population
00:06:43
and typically have no siblings at all.
00:06:45
This leaves the elderly with almost no close family,
00:06:48
and young adults with little family and
few potential friends, especially outside of big cities.
00:06:53
A loneliness epidemic of
epic proportions is all but guaranteed.
00:06:58
On top of that, South Korean culture will
probably experience a huge decline.
00:07:03
In 2000 there were 17.5 million South Koreans
between 25-45, and they made up 37% of the population.
00:07:11
This was the generation that
brought us K–pop, K-drama, K-food,
00:07:16
and many other trends that spread around the world.
00:07:18
In 2060 there will be just
5.6 million people in that age group,
00:07:23
and they will only be 16% of the population.
00:07:26
Many cultural traditions are already struggling
00:07:28
because the older generations are having
trouble finding young people to pass them on to.
00:07:33
As young people disappear, many traditions will die out.
00:07:36
Without young people, the soul of South
Korean culture will shrink and wither away.
00:07:42
And on a personal level, what kind
of experience will it be growing up in 2060?
00:07:46
What will youth culture
be like in a country of seniors?
00:07:49
Where many universities, schools
and Kindergartens are abandoned
00:07:53
as there are no longer children to fill them with life?
00:07:56
What kind of job prospects will
they face and what will politics look like?
00:08:00
If young people don’t want to remain alone,
00:08:02
they will concentrate in Seoul or a few
other big cities – or worse for South Korea,
00:08:07
emigrate to other countries.
00:08:09
Rural areas will decline and most
smaller cities will turn into ghost towns –
00:08:14
we're already seeing this in Japan, which has
almost 10 million abandoned houses in rural areas.
00:08:20
Large parts of South Korea
will simply vanish and be reclaimed by nature.
00:08:25
Last but not least, South and
North Korea are technically at war.
00:08:29
And they could very well still be in 2060.
00:08:32
Will South Korea still be able to afford to have its
young men do 18 months of mandatory military service?
00:08:37
Today 5% of men of combat
age are enrolled in the military –
00:08:41
in 2060 it would have to be
15% just to match today's numbers.
00:08:46
Ok, wait – this is all a bit much.
00:08:48
Is there no way back?
00:08:50
Why There Really Is No Way Back
00:08:53
The problem with the demographic freight
train is that once it hits, things become irreversible.
00:08:58
Let’s say fertility in South Korea magically
triples to the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman
00:09:04
and stays there.
00:09:05
In 2060 it will be an inverted pyramid on top of a barrel.
00:09:09
And there would still only be 1.5
people of working age per senior over 65.
00:09:14
Even in the best made up scenario,
00:09:16
South Korea has to pass through
an unavoidable bottleneck before it will recover.
00:09:21
But there is also a kernel of hope here.
00:09:23
Yes, the situation is grim.
00:09:25
But at least in the long term,
00:09:26
recovery is possible if South Korea enacts rapid
00:09:29
and societal changes that make
its population want to have kids again.
00:09:34
In 2024 births rose for the
first time in 9 years – 3% more than in 2023.
00:09:40
But for that to continue, South Korea needs to face
the music and ask how they got to this point.
00:09:46
How Could it get that bad?
00:09:48
In general, as societies get richer,
more educated, and child mortality plummets,
00:09:53
people decide to have fewer kids.
00:09:55
What makes South Korea special is that
it's somehow supercharging all of these trends.
00:10:00
South Korea lifted itself out of poverty in
record time,
00:10:03
but in doing so it developed a unique kind
of workaholism and extreme competitiveness.
00:10:09
Although the work week is 40 hours
and the legal maximum is 52 per week,
00:10:13
unpaid overtime is normal for many
00:10:15
and the government even proposed
to raise legal work time to 69 hours per week.
00:10:20
Despite this, South Korea has relatively
low wages and a high cost of living.
00:10:25
Real estate in big cities
is out of reach for most people.
00:10:29
The cost of education is extremely high,
00:10:31
since families have to pay for private lessons
if they want to send their kids to a high tier college.
00:10:36
All of this while South Korea spends less
on family benefits than most other rich countries.
00:10:42
Old fashioned cultural
norms make matters even worse.
00:10:45
Marriage is all but mandatory
if a couple wants to start a family –
00:10:48
in 2023 only 4.7% of babies
were born to unmarried women.
00:10:54
Out of all developed countries,
00:10:55
South Korean men do just about the least share
of housework and childcare within their families.
00:11:01
This leaves women with a
disproportionate amount of work
00:11:03
if they want to keep their jobs after a pregnancy.
00:11:06
While many men are overwhelmed by the
societal expectation to be the main breadwinner
00:11:10
and have successful careers.
00:11:12
Starting a family or not is a personal decision.
00:11:15
And most South Koreans are deciding against it.
00:11:18
The bottom line is that South Korea has
created a culture that leads to very few kids.
00:11:24
Conclusion
00:11:25
Demographic collapse is not an abstract
thing in the future, it is happening right now.
00:11:30
And it is not just South Korea.
00:11:32
In 2023 China had a fertility rate of 1,
Italy and Spain 1.2, Germany 1.4, the UK 1.6
00:11:40
and the US 1.6 –
which sounds so much better, doesn’t it?
00:11:44
Well, after four generations, a fertility
rate of 1.6 means 60% fewer new people.
00:11:51
A fertility rate of 1.2 means 87% fewer people.
00:11:55
And fertility rates are still falling,
with no sign of stabilization or recovery.
00:12:00
The weirdest thing about all of this is
that almost nobody involved in the public discourse
00:12:05
has truly grasped the gravity of the situation.
00:12:08
The last century was utterly
dominated by overpopulation narratives
00:12:12
and people who say that
we need more kids seem weird.
00:12:15
And if you do the maths, the future
just seems to be too insane to be true,
00:12:19
like it's hard to believe.
00:12:21
None of this has ever happened before.
00:12:23
So low birthrates are mostly
discussed in the context of worker shortages –
00:12:28
not the existential threat to our societies,
cultures, wealth and our way of life that they are.
00:12:34
If we don’t take it seriously very soon
and change the DNA of our modern societies
00:12:38
in a way that encourages young
people to start having children again,
00:12:42
then the rest of the century will be pretty grim –
00:12:44
for those of us who will live through it.
00:12:47
The demographic freight train stops for nobody –
00:12:50
we finally need to realize
that it’s hurtling down the tracks right at us.
00:12:56
Multilayered issues like demographic change are
hard to break through in our current media landscape
00:13:01
and easy to miss out on.
00:13:03
This is why we rely on Ground News,
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00:13:10
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00:13:17
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bigger picture and make informed decisions.
00:13:22
Using Ground News you can see that earlier this
year, South Korea was officially classified
00:13:27
as a superaged society, a term that basically
summarizes the effects we described in this video.
00:13:32
But less than 100 sources covered this development.
00:13:35
Interestingly, less than 20% of them are left-leaning media.
00:13:39
Ground News has a special feature, the
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00:13:43
stories like that which get lost amidst
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00:13:47
Most importantly, you can clearly
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00:13:51
a government-funded source out of Slovenia
for example mentioned Europe is considering
00:13:56
immigration as part of a solution while
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00:14:01
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