re:publica 2019 – Johan Rockström: Safe Future for Humanity on Earth

The speaker begins by asking a crucial question: Are humans at risk of destabilizing the planet due to their actions? The talk emphasizes humanity's role as the largest force of change on Earth, reliant on a very thin atmosphere for survival. Historically, humanity has exploited natural resources as if they were limitless. Now, there's an urgent need to reconnect to the planet to ensure a sustainable future. A critical graph is introduced showing the exponential rise in global warming pressures. The talk aims to highlight the dramatic changes in Earth's conditions over the last 50 years and their implications for the future.

The speaker presents evidence of the current ecological crisis, including the sixth mass extinction event caused by humans, unlike previous natural extinctions like the dinosaurs. At 1°C warming, significant extreme weather events have begun, suggesting that Mother Earth is warning humanity with severe consequences. Public awareness is rising, as reflected in global surveys. The youth, especially in Germany, are increasingly mobilizing for climate action. Business leaders also recognize climate change and biodiversity loss as significant economic threats. Humanity is entering a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, where humans dominate Earth's changes.

The speaker highlights the various parameters showing dramatic changes since the mid-20th century, nicknamed the 'Great Acceleration,' which show exponential growth in adverse environmental impacts. These include greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and biodiversity loss. The Earth's system appears to be losing resilience under the weight of human pressures. In this new epoch, our dependence on a stable Earth becomes crucial, but humanity is potentially exiting the 'Garden of Eden,' or the Holocene, the only state known to support modern civilization.

The talk introduces the concept of tipping points and nonlinear changes in Earth's systems, which can lead to abrupt and irreversible shifts in climate and ecosystems. The speaker discusses tipping elements like permafrost and ice sheets, which can trigger cascading effects. The 'Hothouse Earth' paper suggests that even by limiting our warming to 2°C, we could trigger these tipping points, making it crucial for us to turn away from current trajectories and avoid flipping into potentially unmanageable global warming scenarios.

The continuation of business as usual significantly risks pushing the planet into a climatic state unseen for millions of years. The speaker emphasizes that this would require immediate global action to stabilize Earth's systems. Such transformation involves maintaining Earth's climate within what we know as the Holocene. New studies point to our influence reaching beyond anything seen in the last 3 million years, stressing the profound responsibility humanity now holds in managing the planetary system. Solutions must embrace a holistic transformation to ecosystems and energy systems.

The speaker argues for a new framework for assessing future planetary health by identifying key systems that regulate Earth's stability and defining a safe operating space for these. This involves more than just climate change, extending to oceans, land, biodiversity, and more – maintaining them within their 'planetary boundaries.' The speaker warns that currently, four boundaries have been exceeded. Despite this, Earth's resilience offers us a buffer, a chance to retract from these dangerous zones if acted upon urgently with proper stewardship.

The speaker discusses the importance of political, social, and economic innovation to meet set climate targets, like halving emissions by 2030. Current efforts, including renewable energy development such as solar and wind, exhibit a potential exponential uptake. Nonetheless, political leadership and systemic incentives need alignment with these efforts. The challenge lies in connecting innovative ideas with investment capital and policy frameworks, emphasizing that transformation requires multi-sector partnerships to embrace the dynamic shift in societal demands towards sustainability.

The transition toward sustainable development requires not only technological advancements but also radical systemic change involving all societal sectors. The speaker presents research showing that even developed countries fall short in environmental sustainability while attempting to achieve social and economic goals. This paradox requires redefining sustainable development: combining equity and prosperity within the planet's ecological boundaries. A significant mindset change is necessary to view human progress not as opposition to environmental health but as fundamentally interconnected.

The speaker advocates redefining sustainable development to bridge human well-being and environmental health, proposing a transformative shift in global policy to achieve this union. He calls for halving carbon emissions every decade, urging disruption over gradual change. The speaker suggests a reevaluation of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals to prioritize planetary systems as the foundations for human socio-economic aspirations, integrating them into a holistic framework for long-term global sustainability to maintain the Earth's stability.

The urgency of acting within the small remaining window to prevent irreversible environmental damage is undeniable. Science demands we put sustainable development goals within planetary boundaries to ensure a thriving future. The speaker highlights the small world's interdependence on the planet; humanity's actions are tightly linked to planetary health. The UN's goals offer a blueprint, but strategies must align with hardness and immediacy due to past failures. Emphasizing global cooperation and multi-level governance, the speaker insists this is the time for bold, integrated actions.