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[Music]
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all right what is going on guys and
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girls it's the short bear and today
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we're going to talk about the best
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trainer of the week which was CP a H
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it's not the biggest P&L trade I think I
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had this week but I really wanted to
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talk about this form because the trade
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was just so clean and and so easy and I
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felt like a lot of people were on the
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wrong side I saw a lot of people
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thinking all right this might be long
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let's long this this will be Fame and
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and so on and so forth
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alright so I wanted to make this video
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to talk about exactly how I manage this
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trade what I looked at and how
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everything came together as a plan to
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attack this stock so this is the chart
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for CPA age where I shorted where I
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covered where I trimmed and so on and so
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on so what I did is I started short pre
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market all right mark it open we spiked
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words 350 and we dumped right wing I
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added some spike debates started
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training down and as soon as we got you
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to 80s I covered half we started spiking
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back over $3 and over the web I started
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adding back and added to full size at
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3:30 after that it started fading kind
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of retesting the previous support broke
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down I covered a piece I covered more
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and added back once we pumped back
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towards 2:00 p.m. added some more for
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break down towards the close we broke
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down covered some and so I think half or
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yeah I think half and the rest as we
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came back up into the range so let's
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talk about everything so the first thing
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I look at I have
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single time I trade and every single
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time I touch a stop is research so to do
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so I'm going to BAM SEC which is my
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website of choice as many of you know
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right and I type in the name of the
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stock the ticker name which in this case
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is C PAH after that I take a quick
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glance at the filings alright and I'm
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seeing alright we've got an s3 from 2000
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2014 which was amended in 2015 so those
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can't be used anymore to raise as there
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are more than three years old and the
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effect following ones in 2015 as well so
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this f3 can't be use any more to raise
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up that I see all right we put a 443
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from 2015 this is a long time ago
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alright but yeah this is nothing because
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the thing is once you look at 10 here
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which is gonna update everything and you
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research for everything right so let's
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say we're research for warrants no
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warrants whatsoever as you can see after
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I'm gonna look for maybe they've got an
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ATM so I type in sales agreement or ATM
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on find anything after that we're gonna
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go for the convertibles alright and in
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this case we don't get any info as well
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right so right away keep in mind I don't
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do a deep time when I see a stock kind
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of start to run especially later in the
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day where it's near the market open I
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need to you know be fast right so this
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is exactly what I do
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as you can see took maybe 15 seconds if
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I'm not talking while doing it right a
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quick glance over the filings and right
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away I know alright this is the kind of
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fundamental side so I'm not seeing much
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delusion and so on but still I need to
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look at the chart I need to see how
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react to cap ups I need to see if we've
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got bag holders if we've got any kind of
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other supply than the dilution itself
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alright so do so I go to then go swim
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right which is my platform of choice
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or my charting right and as you can see
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I already pulled up the chart for its
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Eph alright which ran right here on
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Thursday it the first thing I saw CPI X
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right is the time the time it started
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gapping up so as you can see we started
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running at this is 8:46 a.m. in the
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morning right 9:30 market open the time
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shows 1446 because I'm in Germany for it
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but basically this is one approximately
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45 minutes before the market open right
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right away I know from my stats right I
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tried every single stock and every
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single pattern I know the stocks that
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start running start that start running
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later than 8:00 a.m. right so later than
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8:30 a.m. especially those dogs tend to
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fail at the open there is a an easy
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reason for that and it's basically that
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it costs less start moving it up at that
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time because you don't have to wait that
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extra hour right where you need to push
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the stock up so if you start at 7 a.m.
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you've got that 7 a.m. until until 8:30
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a.m. right where you need to hold the
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stock price up because your target as
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many people areas gonna be get the most
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volume possible at the open right to
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start bumping more stock so in this case
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right away as the time is 846 I know
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this is likely to fail right so this is
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like you to fail at least so number one
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that's exactly what I want to look at
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plan after that I'm gonna start looking
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at the history of the stock so we've got
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multiple ways to do that you can look at
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the daily ride is the chart down
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training do we have any history right so
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look a bit more than than one year let's
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take three years and when I look at that
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right I've got the coat right so you
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might not know this but we admire as
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money have
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the partner working with us think or
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script all right
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he programs everything is an exclusive
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partner at man has money and feet codes
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everything you need for the course win
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right so this is the gaps that indicator
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which he program which gives you exactly
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what you need regarding the stuff so
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when the stocks gap up I want the data
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to automated I don't want to look back
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manually I want to have everything coded
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fully automated in my platform and this
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is what we're seeing right here so
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during the last two years behind three
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gap ups over twenty percent two of those
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all right close read so we've got a
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right around 66 and 67 percent win right
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regarding the gap ups the average spike
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from the open is 73 percent all right
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this is mainly due to one big spike day
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right this year after that the average
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close from the open when it stays over
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the ADI the opening price is going to be
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one hundred and seventy six percent same
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thing this is only when it goes green
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all right and this is because of the big
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thing usually on the other starts to
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capstat trying to use five years for
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those alright and we're going to get
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something more like twenty gap ups and
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the stats will be wanna see in the sense
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better to use because the more gap ups
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you're going to get the more you're
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gonna trust the data or at the more data
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points that's the same thing when you
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track a strategy the more data points
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you have the better as you go through
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market cycles you go through you want to
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build an average right and the average
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is gonna be better if you have more data
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points but the average closed from the
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open when it closes load the open right
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so when it goes bad is minus 18 percent
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orange that's something we want to know
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so this code all right is available with
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think we're script right and if wants to
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use it and if you want to
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maybe see what else he has gonna put a
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link in the description for you to check
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it out
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so from there I'm gonna look at the
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let's say the 5-minute chart right
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because we've got a previous run right
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the previous round Bartlett that's
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actually let's stick with dating for now
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I'm gonna explain to you exactly why so
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on the daily chart we've got a previous
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run right we didn't fade back completely
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people are still back from the running
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[Β __Β ]
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so the first running day we had 42
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million bought and traded and the second
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day we had nearly 20 million traded
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right on the second day right when we
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gap up from $2 to $3 every single person
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which was long and held onto their
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position are still read on the trade and
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part of the first thing and part of the
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lungs from the first day chasing into
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the holiday our bag as well and read on
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the trade all rights this is a very very
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very big part of this trade because it
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means for me if we can't do you know
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that huge volume we did on the previous
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runs right if we told you 30 40 million
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volume we're not going to be able to
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kind of overcome the selling as
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especially due to the the bag holders on
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that first date chart is down training
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we got a history of failure we've got
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the bag holders so everything starts to
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come together now right and I want to
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know exactly from where the the lines
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are bad and if we had any major area or
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every gas on on those days right that we
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can use for this trade so if on those
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days where the super big volume was
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traded there was a big resistance area
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or a big support area which was held on
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major volume better bet that this or
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these areas are going to be retested and
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are going to be
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we're gonna play a big role and are
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still going to be used as points of
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supply and men all right so we're gonna
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look at its we're gonna look at the 30
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days chart on the five minutes all right
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today it's
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thirty days and I look at stuff five
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minutes
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Thanks
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so when we scroll back we're gonna see
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all right those where the pretty much
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the two or let's say three days all
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right where we had action a few weeks
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ago so now we're going to draw the
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basically the resistance and support
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areas around so we've got the first one
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right here once and before I'm not going
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to go further than that because we
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didn't fade back why I didn't expect
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it's a to be that big right so I'm
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looking at the stance I'm looking at 20%
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is the average fade right so from three
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dollars the average trade would bring it
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down to 220 so I don't need to go much
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further than you know under two so after
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that we've got pretty much this area 250
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which was we tested after and we've got
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dollars basically we've got what's it's
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here but that 365 ish area and we've got
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4 30
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now what you can call it I would call it
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pretty much 350 to 365 because we did
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you know stop here and then we supported
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265 you kind of supported after testing
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350 65 here and then the next morning we
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talked out that 350 right so those are
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the areas I'm gonna be looking at all
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right we still got five dollars right
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and we've got five 60s so now we can go
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back into one-minute chart let's take
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two two days on a chart
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and let's look all right so
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now you start to see the picture alright
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so on the big running days alright on
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the big runner day and then the fade
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back during the crash day we the biggest
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support or resistance area is and was
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350 right so 350 to 360 so that was the
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area I wanted to look at for this day
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right and now everything comes together
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and so I know the sentiment for this
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stock is not necessarily super bearish
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and I know people are gonna start to
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chase long right take chase long because
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they're seeing oh this could run in the
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past all right this has an illusion this
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computation that right but when too many
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people are on the same side and it
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doesn't work usually we're gonna get a
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sharp sharp reversal so what I saw in
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this talk and my thought process was the
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gap up time is not right for a runner
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the volume free market is not right for
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a super runner the pattern just spiking
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and showing kind of kind of strength
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into the open is not something I want to
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see on the burner all right because it
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basically it's it's like you are trying
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to make this stock look a certain way
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for people to chase inch width on the
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sidewalk right so if you set it up this
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way that it's strong and supporting free
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market on the low volume usually it's
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gonna fail when my book so that's
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something I like to short into because
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they're basically trying to get a higher
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price on lower volume so the capital
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need is not as high they're gonna move
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it up and people are gonna chase fun
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because it looks strong and if you are
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hoping that once you know to really you
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grab the stock up and to accumulate
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chairs you don't want to make it look
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strong you want it to make it look weak
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it's want people to sell into your body
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or you to accumulate at a lower price
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and then spike stock up if you do make
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that way a lot of people are guard long
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we're not going to be able to fill their
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positions your average is going to be
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higher so that's not
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really what you wanted to do as a long
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player and as someone that wants to
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accumulate a lot of shares so when I saw
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that started moving up all right and I
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see this over extension into the open a
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lot of times you can see it crash back
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just before they open so I started in
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335 330s want to add this on this one if
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we get towards 360 all right so 350 360
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and if you don't get that and we stop
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just before 350 I'm fine with what I
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have right now and I'll look to add more
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3vj so we start doing that but I get in
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we going start going to work
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350 comp like into the 50s crash down I
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see it trying to pop heavy heavy heavy
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trying to pop heavy and I am right here
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alright so I add towards 315 ish because
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I want my average to be right around 325
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which that gives me a nice kind of kind
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of cushion right if we start spiking up
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towards that I'm fine with the average
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but at the same time I don't want it to
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too low because I don't want it you know
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to be where my stop is whatever 30 cents
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to 40 cents right I want a tighter stop
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than that so I'm adding I see it you
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know kind of us still see this kind of
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resistance which tonight is supported to
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90s right start supporting it start
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spiking or V web by the way reject super
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heavy and we reject after that we start
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spiking back kind of retesting the
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support area broad just a trend line
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right here alright we start moving
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towards that - - again support and then
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we start crash cracking right here and
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why did I cover them well because at
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first we've got that 18% average thing
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right the 18% on each face now let me
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calculate it right away quicker if I do
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it right here on my phone the open was
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right around 3:30 right so 330 times 0.8
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- right it's gotta give you the average
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face which is 270 nights so - seventies
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is right here right and that's where I
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want to get a piece at so - 70s gotta be
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the the full side right the average fade
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and I know on the fader is the average
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fading time but it's gonna be towards
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the afternoon right oh ah yeah after you
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not gonna get to the odd thing but if
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we're making it so close to the low of
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thing right away at the open I want to
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cover at least because that's gonna show
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me all over emotional right latte is
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still likely to happen further way right
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during the end of the day so I want to
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take a piece right now into the
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emotional sign right and this one was
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too chubby for me to hold longer than
00:18:22
that for the full position I had because
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when I look at faders I look at straw
00:18:29
you stocks are very weak usually they
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don't spike back why you like this right
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so we're gonna get bigger crashes small
00:18:38
pops super heavy and fade fade fake but
00:18:40
this one is pretty much we draw
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consolidate we push we drop we come
00:18:45
sunny day we push and consolidate and
00:18:48
you start cracking but we can tree
00:18:51
cracked down enough so every time it
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gets kind of supported supported
00:18:54
supported supporting and I don't want to
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see that because I don't wanna be in
00:19:00
that Bryan back where because the thing
00:19:03
is every time it pops shorts are gonna
00:19:04
be involved shorts are gonna be involved
00:19:06
shorts are gonna be involved right and
00:19:08
that's not good for us because the time
00:19:11
it supports shorts are gonna be
00:19:13
hammering in and they're gonna get
00:19:15
squeezed out so that's what I was seeing
00:19:16
kind of too much support too much
00:19:19
support people really kind of looking
00:19:22
for a big break down the short side and
00:19:24
the problem is once we start beatin
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aiming one short start capita dating
00:19:29
usually we got a big kind of spike back
00:19:32
and I knew we are in that market where
00:19:34
shorts are gonna be hammering everything
00:19:36
and in this case a new Shores we're
00:19:39
hammering but at the same time he had
00:19:41
long waiting there's a lot of people
00:19:43
well I can't it's for every time
00:19:45
so I cover the piece we started
00:19:46
reclaiming reclaiming people right here
00:19:49
already like three dollars they were
00:19:51
like alright new half-day this is gonna
00:19:53
rip right but I knew we still got that
00:19:56
major major back older every apps were
00:19:58
359 and we couldn't even make it at the
00:20:02
open so it's even whisper right the
00:20:03
biggest volume on the day the moment
00:20:06
where the stock was looking the the
00:20:08
strongest we couldn't make it so I'm not
00:20:10
expecting the stock to kind of make it
00:20:12
back towards those areas all right I'm
00:20:14
looking at the Long's when our dairy
00:20:16
take on a bag basically and I wanna
00:20:18
kinda squeeze over the liquidity areas
00:20:21
for the many planners to get the stops
00:20:23
and really create so in this case we
00:20:24
could we had the V way up towards 3 10
00:20:27
ish I believe and we had this resistance
00:20:30
and I right here at 325 ish and the high
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up they are in two to three 525 which
00:20:36
was also high and major resistance area
00:20:38
do we need in the market session so as
00:20:41
we move back towards this area right the
00:20:44
VIP area and Pierce over it I get one
00:20:46
half of what I covered here back on and
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I'm thinking I really hope this one can
00:20:52
push one more leg up so instead of one
00:20:55
leg up I want one
00:20:56
go back to and then fade back right
00:21:00
after the Elliott Wave Principle
00:21:02
so as we spike up right towards the the
00:21:05
highs I add back to food sides risking
00:21:08
the high up day and right away make slam
00:21:11
back alright people every single
00:21:13
shortages but squeezed out long chased
00:21:15
and now that the shorts are out and the
00:21:18
lungs chased everyone's going to be
00:21:20
looking for to be short and to sell the
00:21:23
long position so after that I'm looking
00:21:25
at the failure stats and average fade on
00:21:29
the stocks which is gonna be pretty much
00:21:31
well I'm not gonna go too much into it
00:21:34
because I don't want to share every one
00:21:36
of my secrets and we've got a lot of
00:21:39
courses because a lot of videos exactly
00:21:40
covering that on menace money so if you
00:21:43
want to join link is in the description
00:21:45
as well but basically the average fade
00:21:48
is going to continue into the afternoon
00:21:49
which is why I'm holding on to the
00:21:52
stocks right so well are getting back is
00:21:54
getting heavier and heavier more and
00:21:56
more lines or you know bail
00:21:58
and as we crash down I take my first
00:22:01
cover I've totally crack and you know
00:22:04
see behind towards 250 and we start
00:22:07
grinding more you see and overextension
00:22:09
towards the 250 and I cover more you see
00:22:13
a spike back right and I'm still
00:22:16
thinking my head average day is gonna
00:22:17
take more than that so I'm taking bunger
00:22:19
so I'm adding back more we try to do
00:22:23
spike back up can't make it fade back
00:22:25
towards the support area I'm adding more
00:22:28
for the breakdown breakdown not much
00:22:30
volume right and not much panic and I'm
00:22:33
seeing a lot of people buying so I
00:22:36
decided you know what taking everything
00:22:38
off and I took everything else all right
00:22:40
this was it for this video if you liked
00:22:43
it please leave a like and subscribe and
00:22:47
I'll see you in the next one
00:22:51
[Music]