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[Music]
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Stanford University so today's session
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is on smart cities and urban mobility
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reshaping transportation systems
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autonomous mobility infrastructure
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readiness and safety regulations we have
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a fantastic group of panelists who stand
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from academia to industry and finance
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and operations would love for them to go
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ahead and introduce themselves first and
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if they don't do a good enough job
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bragging about their impressive
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accomplishments I'll be adding some
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color to that so why don't we start off
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with John from Hyundai do you want to go
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ahead and start by introducing yourself
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sure sure hi everybody my name is John
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and I'm a vice president and founding
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director of Hyundai cradle trail is
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actually a network for offices part of
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Hyundai Motor group's corporate
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venturing and open innovation activity
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we have offices in Beijing Berlin Tel
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Aviv and Silicon Valley that's where I'm
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based and that's the office that I
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managed I also lead a new team called a
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new horizon studio just whelmed in the
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first quarter this year in our mission
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is to pioneer the development vehicles
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with novel architectures mostly ground
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vehicles looking at combining
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technologies and unique ways to to
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address some interesting opportunities
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for new future customers and their needs
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my back by way of background I have my
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masters and PhD from Stanford in
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mechanical engineering I spent a lot of
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time at the Center for integrated
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systems doing a lot of work in MEMS
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research and before that I was an
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electrical engineering undergrad at a
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small school in in Flint Chien have been
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with Hyundai for almost nine years at
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this point and let's see hopefully I was
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a kid myself
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I'll pause there great thank you John
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Laurie do you want to introduce yourself
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next sure hi there I'm Laurie Oller I am
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a general partner at a venture capital
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firm in Palo Alto called playground
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global that invests in deep technology
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in a variety of areas
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we look at automation robotics and AI
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very broadly we look at next-generation
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computing we look at healthcare and
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biotech and automation and logistics and
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even infrastructure so really deep tech
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that is not something that's a
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short-term incremental addition but
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really something that can have multi
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generational impact so we have about
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let's see about 850 million under
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management we do mostly series a rounds
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and we have about 50 portfolio companies
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so that is my day job but I also serve
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on quite a number of boards and have
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throughout my career I have been an
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entrepreneur an executive and an
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investor throughout my career I am
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probably best known for being the first
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investor and board member at Tesla and
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served that company for over 10 years
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both as an adviser and a board member
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more recently I am on the board and was
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a very involved strategic adviser to
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zooks in the autonomy space and I was
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also president at Qualcomm where smart
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cities and mobility and robotics were
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key areas that I looked at and had teams
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that were both focused on building
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product and solutions but also
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partnering with others and we also made
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investments and acquisitions I'm also on
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the board of Bo's so I hope you all have
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Bose headphones and I'm on the board of
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church and white which is a consumer
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packaged goods company in New Jersey
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that competes with Proctor and Gamble
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and Clorox and I'm on the board here
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locally of the Computer History Museum
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and involved with AI for all which was
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started at Stanford a Phillies AI group
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and then I'm on the board of some small
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companies one in logistics called lief
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logistics in New York and another called
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branch here in Silicon Valley great
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Thank You Laurie and last but not least
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we have one who's just right from across
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campus from the era rostro Department
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laun do you want to introduce yourself
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sure I'll be glad to and thanks for
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having me today
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my name is Juan Alonso I'm a faculty
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member in the Aeronautics and
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Astronautics department which I think
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many of their students may or may not
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know it's in the Duran building so I'm
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not far from where you are where you'd
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normally would be I'm an aerospace
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engineering so that means I'm interested
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in designing all kinds of flying and
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space vehicles and most of my research
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was actually very focused on using
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numerical techniques large computers in
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order to understand the behavior of new
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proposed systems and and to make them
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better
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right so optimize them in various
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different ways such that they can become
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realistic products I've been an academic
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for now 23 years I think I've been at
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Stanford since 1997 so it's been a while
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but I did take a few years off to work
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in Washington DC and I ran all the NASA
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research programs for Aeronautics so it
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was a large you know almost 800 million
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dollar a year program with 2,000 people
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and lots of headaches but and there we
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were focusing on advanced vehicle
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configurations of different kinds so
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much more environmentally compliant more
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fuel efficient new characteristics like
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SuperSonics but also something that
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maybe is what what brought us to this
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panel John Laurie and myself together
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and that's that I'm very interested in
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the next generation of electric era
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taxis or electric urban air mobility
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vehicles as they're called right so my
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expertise in the panel is more in the
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airplanes and stuff like this as a means
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of transportation but I'm very much
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looking forward to the conversation and
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trying to tell you a little bit about
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why I think this new method of
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transportation is actually well as a
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chance of impacting what's going on I've
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not been an entrepreneur John like stuff
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in here to Haeundae like Stephanie so I
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was going to say just to finish I
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haven't been an entrepreneur in the past
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but I did start a company just about
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eight months ago and I'll be taking the
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two-year leave of absence the fall to
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pursue that more aggressively so so I
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hope to to take some from that
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experience to sort of bring back through
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our students and to understand the world
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from a different vantage points pleasure
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to be here great thank you
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so you'd like to start off with the
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question of what is your vision for the
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city of the future how do you define
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this smart city future that we have and
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very curious anyone can start what your
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vision is for the future well so I'll
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start on that one so I think part of it
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is that we can continue to move around
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in our in our cities for for different
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reasons but do it do it a way that is
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eco friendly or environmentally
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sustainable I think there's a lot of
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concern about the energy demand even
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with automation right so even with
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autonomous cars and maybe because of
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autonomous cars the ease of which those
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vehicles can cost people for to use one
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building more will just drive up energy
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use whether it's electric or even
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combustion engine based so I do hope
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that we you know just the concentration
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of activity economic tipitina cities
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means that you know eco-friendly this is
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going to be a really really big deal I
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also the other vision is there's a
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long-standing ambition of thinking a lot
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of people in the automotive industry is
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crash safety or as prevention of crashes
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there are you know a lot of people
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getting injured or killed through
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through crashes both pedestrians as well
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as automotive and bicyclists and so on
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so my vision is that we can find a way
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to reduce a death rate significantly you
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know beyond just having to work from
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home right because right now it's safer
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now because there's fewer cars right so
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those two things I think sustainability
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and then I think a safety and a
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reduction of crashes would be - - I
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think if we can achieve those two things
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would be fantastic in a city of the
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future I'll jump in I got excited about
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autonomous vehicles because from a
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personal perspective in cities well
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first my parents got older and I really
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felt like they should not be driving
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because they weren't driving very safely
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so back to the safety point I thought it
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was a little crazy that we allowed so
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many accidents to happen you know 1.4
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million deaths every year that are
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voidable and then so many more crashes
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that occur all the time and one thing
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that I was taught by one of the
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regulator's of the National Highway
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Traffic Safety Association is never say
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an accident because it's not an accident
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it's a crash humans are crashing into
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each other at a any rapid pace and so
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the safety aspect was critically
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important to me the congestion you know
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getting stuck I traveled back and forth
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to China a number of times with Qualcomm
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and that congestion was astounding to me
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and then of course the pollution are
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it's very very important the other thing
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that I think has got to be thought
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through though that's for me things that
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I care about but I think if you look at
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a city serving all of its citizens it's
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also about access its access to all the
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city services it's the ability to
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interact with government on a much more
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friction-free way it's better public
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transportation as well and it's allowing
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everyone in the city to move about more
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easily and to have access to services so
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I care very much about that as well in
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that city of the future so I'll just
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jump in to wrap up here I
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I strongly resonate with the things that
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are being said I think sustainability in
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the future is just the key
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characteristic of cities that we have to
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pay much more attention to and we have
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to figure out how to achieve
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sustainability not starting with a blank
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sheet of paper which is a rare
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opportunity that we get but rather by
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following a path from where we have been
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I'm not an urban planner so I think you
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have to take what I say with a grain of
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salt but one thing that's always struck
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me I don't know your students are
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familiar with there's there's a United
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Nations UNICEF very good website that
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has projections until the year 2050 of
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the population of the world total
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population but also the distribution and
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what is very clear is that the large
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cities that we have today are going to
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get larger the amount of people that
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live in rural environments is going to
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decrease and the majority of those
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people are migrating into the cities so
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when you start seeing cities that may
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have upwards of 20 million dollars and
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many diff
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places around the world not just two or
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three places in the world we have right
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now you start seeing that that that time
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accurate path that we follow from where
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we are to where we need to be in the
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future at such large scale is going to
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be very very challenging right so so how
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do you give access to people how do you
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make it efficient and sustainable how do
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you eliminate congestion all of those
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things done safely I think are critical
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you've all said that the aspect I'd like
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to bring in for not just within a big
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city and to the periphery of that big
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city but also as these cities get larger
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the distance between city centers is
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going to get somewhat smaller as well
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the transportation between these bigger
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city centers in order to maintain
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economic activity level of development
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so on and so forth is really important
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so so in addition to autonomy for the
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ground-based vehicles that was amended
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that were mentioned before I really like
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to see whether it is possible cost
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effective and sustainable to have a
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component of air transportation that
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services the needs of transportations of
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these features at ease and that's
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something that we can talk a little bit
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more about if there is an interest but
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it's it's a dimension that I'm
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personally interested in we've
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definitely seen a lot of exciting
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startups and innovations emerge in the
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space of transportation and mobility
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would love to know more about what are
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some of the companies and initiatives
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you're backing you're involved with that
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you're particularly excited about I'll
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start off with so just to give a
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background about Hyundai Motor Company
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and really the group that we're a part
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of Hyundai Motor Group starting him
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actually been investing in as a
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corporate venturing since about year
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2000 but it wasn't really until 2017 or
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so that really started to pick up a lot
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you know by a lot I mean it's like a
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hundred ex different than than before
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and and we decided that there were some
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five really key areas maybe six now but
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starting with a five you know smart
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mobility being one and smart cities
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robotics technologies eco-friendly
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energy and artificial intelligence /
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machine learning and then more recently
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about smart factories so how do you how
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do you make the
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in a different way than than they are
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today and so there isn't really maybe
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necessary one company necessarily it's
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sort of like I suppose when you're when
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you're venture and you know even
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corporate investor that you want you're
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not supposed to have favorites right but
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had that said though I would say that
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the air that we really have had a lot of
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effort and time into would be in the
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mobility area electrification and then
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artificial intelligence / machine
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learning although it's areas it's in the
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mobility area that we probably put the
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most in and it really centered on two
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investments one called grab in Southeast
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Asia and then Ola in in India and I
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speak it's really because we think and I
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think others you know probably if you
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read know the press about how mobility
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services can really change and disrupt
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the needs for personal ownership and
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it's not only the u.s. really worldwide
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and then electrification of course is
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really important this is certainly we
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have our own efforts but it's it's such
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a different it's not just the technology
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but how its made the use cases of
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electric vehicles is different than
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combustion engines so really putting
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money into external firms really
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focusing on that what's important for us
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and of course machine learning is you
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know touching all kinds of industries
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and area so we put probably the highest
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number of our investments is in the AI
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machine learning area and I hope as one
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was talking about the new area is the
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newest area will be urban air mobility
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will be spending a lot more time in that
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area so later on may even get into
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specifics but I just want to give you
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kind of a broad brush overview of the
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we're we're looking into and sort of
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highlights of you know in terms of money
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where we put the most into so far right
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cover a couple of the playground
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portfolio companies and then personally
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zooks is looking at full stack
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autonomous mobility so targeting that
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level five that I know was mentioned
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both developing a novel vehicle
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architecture as well as the software and
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sensor fusion algorithm
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to allow us to get there in cities so
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that's certainly one that I personally
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have been very involved in since it
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started but in the playground portfolio
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we took a different take to try to solve
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some other problems that folks weren't
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solving so natto is a company in our
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portfolio that was actually started by a
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Stanford professor by the name of Stefan
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heck
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senato was looking at distracted driving
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until we get to autonomy there needed to
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be a way to monitor distracted drivers
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and he both started talking to insurance
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companies about hey if we had some kind
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of camera in the vehicle would that
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allow people to get lower insurance
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premiums and where he really found
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traction was in fleets so very large
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delivery fleets for example he found
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them both in ride hailing services but
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now as you can imagine the delivery
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fleets are making up the majority of his
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business but saying let's make sure that
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there is the driver gets a warning for
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example if they've been looking down and
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if you've got sensors on the front of
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the vehicle that see that you're about
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to hit something a camera inside could
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notice that the driver is not watching
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and warn them verbally and then you can
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see the benefits of driver who has that
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in their car might get some kind of
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other benefits so that's not oh we also
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started a company called lacunae to work
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on actually developing an operating
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system for cities to manage all the
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different vehicles in a city working
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together with the cities to for example
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manage scooters being able to see what's
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going on in the city and provide city
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services around all the different kinds
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of transportation in a city so that's
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called lacunae agility is a robot that
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takes care of patching the last 10 the
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last 10 feet you hear about the last
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mile this is the last 10 feet of being
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able to carry a package out of for
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example an autonomous vehicle and then
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take it all the way to someone's front
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door without human interaction and
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that's called agility some folks out of
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Carnegie Mellon and then we have a
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company called fabric
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that's out of Israel that decided to do
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a full lights-out fulfillment center for
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e-commerce and they wanted to take
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advantage of the fact that underground
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parking lots if less and less people are
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driving and parking and we're taking
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other forms of transportation
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underground parking lots might be empty
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and so why not turn that into a
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lights-out fulfillment center in the
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middle of a city and then allow people
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to get their packages faster and have a
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filmin Center so that's called fabric
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and then the last one I'll mention is a
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drone company that is called sky do
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which has the most accurate cameras on a
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drone and they are finding a lot of
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interesting traction in construction for
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example going on in a city to be able to
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monitor how construction is is moving
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forward so those are a few very
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different different areas but all
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related to a smarter City that's helpful
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thank you it looks like one a lot of
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folks are curious about your startup
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which might be your answer to the
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question in terms of what you're
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spending a lot of time focused on we do
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well first yeah I'm happy to say
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something but I think in general you
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know in terms of things that our lab has
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been doing to help with the topic of
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discussion here we've we've effectively
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helped I would say five or six different
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companies and most like to remain
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English in terms of designing some of
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these electric vertical takeoff and
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landing vehicles so I won't be able to
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say specifically but I'll tell you there
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are there are about 10 very serious
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companies to the Bay Area and we've
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helped one in Germany three here in the
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Bay Area another one in the US and one
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in Brazil look at designs of these types
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of vehicles and I think the challenge is
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when I see some of the questions here in
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the chat window the challenges for
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safety for the vehicles are you know
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surprisingly a little bit simpler than
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the challenges for safety for the ground
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vehicles themselves because the sky is
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significantly big and there tends to be
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an extra level of infrastructure that
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allows these vehicles to sort of pass by
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each other without colliding so so in
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answering some of those questions of
00:19:59
what would help both the safety and the
00:20:01
sustainability goals I would say that
00:20:03
the third dimension in the sky is a huge
00:20:06
opportunity right not just for
00:20:08
congestion but for safety I would also
00:20:10
say for sustainability obviously all
00:20:12
these vehicles I would say the vast
00:20:14
majority of the vehicles we've worked on
00:20:16
are completely electrified so they're
00:20:19
battery-powered that limits the range to
00:20:21
you know in the order of 100 nautical
00:20:23
miles which is not a terribly large
00:20:25
range but it's enough for intercity
00:20:27
sorry intercity type of transportation
00:20:30
we've been advising and helping a
00:20:32
company that is actually designing one
00:20:35
such vehicle but for longer distances
00:20:37
and those are hybrid electric vehicles
00:20:39
that we've last but not least the
00:20:42
company I'm spending a lot of time in
00:20:43
that I'm a co-founder for has very
00:20:45
little to do with this I do a lot of
00:20:47
numerical analysis and optimization so
00:20:50
it's a company that it's really trying
00:20:51
to revolutionize the way we do
00:20:53
engineering design based on simulations
00:20:55
and I can say a lot but you could
00:20:58
imagine there's a component of using
00:21:01
existing computers much more effectively
00:21:04
and there's also a component of doing
00:21:07
silicon solutions for these types of
00:21:11
engineering design tasks which which
00:21:14
could be not one to two orders of
00:21:16
magnitude faster than what people are
00:21:18
doing now but three to three-and-a-half
00:21:20
orders of magnitude so so we're trying
00:21:22
to accelerate design processes by
00:21:24
writing a lot of software and creating
00:21:25
custom-made hardware 'some yeah so
00:21:28
focusing more on the topic of autonomous
00:21:31
mobility specifically could you
00:21:34
elaborate on benefits of autonomous
00:21:36
vehicles for cities of the future and
00:21:39
also similarly what are the unforeseen
00:21:41
negative effects we might see and cities
00:21:43
you know start or you might join your
00:21:48
own ticket you know let's get started no
00:21:50
jumped in yeah you know I think we all
00:21:53
the problem right now is we all imagine
00:21:56
what the future would look like with
00:21:58
autonomous vehicles and so no one knows
00:22:00
now that doesn't say we should just
00:22:02
unleash the beast but there are a number
00:22:04
of things to think about when you think
00:22:08
about how these will be accepted how
00:22:11
they should be accepted and
00:22:13
when we started Zuke's we started
00:22:15
meeting with government officials at the
00:22:17
federal state and local level to talk
00:22:20
about what were the things we might not
00:22:22
be thinking about that we're gonna be
00:22:24
important to them so that we could be
00:22:26
thinking of it cuz a lot of people say
00:22:27
oh no with autonomous vehicles there's
00:22:29
gonna actually be more vehicle traffic
00:22:31
well it kind of depends on supply it
00:22:34
kind of depends on if people use it
00:22:36
versus ride-hailing or if they're just
00:22:38
more vehicles in a city it's really
00:22:40
totally hard to to make those kinds of
00:22:42
projections right now because autonomous
00:22:45
vehicles are gonna have very expensive
00:22:46
sensors and software in there so they're
00:22:48
gonna be very expensive to produce for
00:22:50
the most part you know the reason
00:22:52
electric vehicles didn't go forward as
00:22:53
quickly as they were more expensive
00:22:55
adding battery packs to a vehicle
00:22:57
envelope made them more expensive and so
00:23:00
you have a cost situation so a lot of
00:23:03
these concerns that a city is going to
00:23:05
be swarmed by autonomous vehicles which
00:23:08
will cause more congestion I think is
00:23:10
just a false projection so I got to
00:23:13
start there so my hope is that it will
00:23:17
make cities safer and that it will avoid
00:23:23
many of those crashes that I talked
00:23:25
about because an autonomous vehicle has
00:23:27
eyes in the back of its head and you
00:23:30
know has a 360 degree view and doesn't
00:23:33
really need to park so there can be a
00:23:35
lot of benefits however one of the
00:23:39
issues that has come up in this space
00:23:40
that you have to be careful of is there
00:23:42
were a lot of companies that tried to
00:23:43
rush something to market to be first
00:23:45
there is this concept that you have to
00:23:47
be first to be cool and so getting a
00:23:51
vehicle out where as I talked about your
00:23:54
duct-taping a bunch of sensors to the
00:23:55
hood of a car and unleashing the beast
00:23:58
with some software that's been tested in
00:24:00
a beta version it's not a safe way so
00:24:03
that autonomous vehicle unleashed in the
00:24:06
city thank you I don't want it I'll move
00:24:09
to another city but ones that are rolled
00:24:12
out very carefully in conjunction with
00:24:14
the city is a different story so you
00:24:17
know very very different and we've seen
00:24:19
that in in scooters we've seen that in
00:24:22
shared ride share vehicles in some cases
00:24:27
have been rolled out in conjunction with
00:24:28
the city and in some cases they've been
00:24:30
rolled out to use consumers or citizens
00:24:33
in a city as as alpha testers and beta
00:24:36
testers and so I think you got to be
00:24:38
careful not to get those concepts
00:24:40
confused I think we're gonna see and do
00:24:41
that answer what the question was
00:24:44
actually yeah so I'm gonna do a
00:24:47
counterpoint to what Lori just said so
00:24:49
my counterpoint is on the congestion
00:24:52
issue and I don't I think it's possible
00:24:55
as always said that we won't have a
00:24:57
congestion issue or that is more
00:24:59
vehicles on the road but I think we have
00:25:01
to be intentional about that I think if
00:25:03
we just let it be I I do think that we
00:25:06
would have more vehicles on the road of
00:25:08
different types not just passenger
00:25:09
vehicles but we may be no Tom's delivery
00:25:11
vehicles and there's there's sort of two
00:25:14
historical things that we can now see
00:25:17
that for me at least at least that
00:25:18
conclusion or at least at least
00:25:20
possibility one is just lifted lyft and
00:25:23
uber we know that or I've definitely
00:25:26
heard that the traffic has increased in
00:25:29
the San Francisco Bay Area because of
00:25:31
lift right because now it's easier for
00:25:34
you know me to to travel to San
00:25:38
Francisco because I don't have to dread
00:25:40
the drives right and the convenience is
00:25:42
pretty awesome right so why not let's go
00:25:46
to San Francisco more often and and I
00:25:49
think there's been an increase in
00:25:50
traffic overall and not maybe every city
00:25:52
but certainly Steph so I think even New
00:25:54
York has seen this the other historical
00:25:57
issue or fact is really from the mobile
00:26:00
phone industry when you have better
00:26:03
connectivity you know two to three to 40
00:26:05
now 5g and people not like to talk about
00:26:08
six view for heaven's sakes
00:26:09
then there's internet traffic go up or
00:26:11
down go stop why because it's faster
00:26:14
it's convenient there's more stuff so if
00:26:17
put that together if automated because
00:26:19
is a technology play and it may not be
00:26:21
but if it is then we could run into the
00:26:24
problem that it induces more demand
00:26:26
demand drives up these vehicles and then
00:26:28
we have more congestion but I do think
00:26:31
if we have to if we design it properly
00:26:32
we won't run it to the issue of
00:26:34
increased congestion but it has to be
00:26:36
designed with my viewpoint this is a
00:26:39
so I do a lot of parallel computation
00:26:41
and this is analogy I mean what you're
00:26:43
describing is a situation in which the
00:26:45
efficiency of the system has gone up but
00:26:47
the sheer volume of how many customers
00:26:49
are actually being served has gone up as
00:26:51
well the gains in efficiency have not
00:26:54
kept up with the increase in traffic
00:26:56
therefore leading to more congestion
00:26:58
right so so the issue is also what
00:27:01
additional levers that we have to
00:27:03
continue to improve on the levels of
00:27:05
efficiency with which this service is
00:27:08
being provided to the citizens of a city
00:27:10
and at the same time you know maintain
00:27:12
the level of congestion or reduce it
00:27:14
right so I wish my colleague Marco
00:27:17
Pavano would be there because he's been
00:27:18
studying some of these transportation
00:27:20
patterns in various cities of the size
00:27:22
of New York the impact that some of
00:27:24
these ride-sharing services have
00:27:26
actually had and the absolute potential
00:27:28
of what could be done with a fleet of
00:27:31
the size that can serve as and increased
00:27:32
the man but at the same time do so even
00:27:35
more efficiently than we do today and
00:27:37
and maintain congestion levels so I'm
00:27:39
hoping that the cities of the future
00:27:41
really do manage this growth by
00:27:43
improving efficiency in that way and
00:27:45
that they incorporate the technology
00:27:46
that's necessary to be able to do it
00:27:48
because left to its own devices as
00:27:50
you're saying John I think it's highly
00:27:51
unlikely that the outcome is going to be
00:27:55
one where there is reduced congestion
00:27:56
and additional services we provide I
00:27:59
think but I think the important thing is
00:28:00
not to conflate different concepts
00:28:02
so there's ride-sharing vehicles which
00:28:04
basically became a cheaper taxi right a
00:28:07
better taxi experience and that's lyft
00:28:09
and uber that is not autonomous in any
00:28:11
way and so I think sometimes people say
00:28:14
oh I Thomas vehicles are gonna cause
00:28:16
congestion because lifted over have but
00:28:18
that's just more taxis at a better cost
00:28:20
so as you talked about taxis became more
00:28:23
cost effective a la lyft and uber and
00:28:25
didi and chariot and all the others that
00:28:28
came out but that was a price play now
00:28:30
you look at if I look on my street now
00:28:32
when I go bike riding in the afternoon
00:28:34
the only thing that's there is delivery
00:28:36
vehicles and you have ups and you know
00:28:38
FedEx and because people are buying a
00:28:41
lot more stuff in boxes and getting them
00:28:42
delivered to them so again nothing to do
00:28:45
with autonomy right now we're seeing a
00:28:47
huge amount of delivery vehicles because
00:28:49
deliveries gone to free so it's an
00:28:52
economic case when people will use
00:28:54
things that are less expensive and you
00:28:57
know basics of economics and it's a play
00:28:59
economy of autonomy has nothing to do
00:29:02
with either of those what I was going to
00:29:03
say is that I think I'd only me is a
00:29:05
great opportunity to increase that level
00:29:06
of efficiency right so if instead of
00:29:08
having just the replacement axes you
00:29:10
start having you know fleets of cars
00:29:13
that can self-organize and can actually
00:29:15
deliver people to various different
00:29:17
places in different ways I think it's
00:29:20
one of the levers you must exploit right
00:29:21
I'm not just to look at a single vehicle
00:29:23
by itself but to look at the set of
00:29:25
vehicles trying to to do this in the
00:29:28
optimal way in some sense I completely
00:29:30
agree with you
00:29:31
we can't just replace more cars by cars
00:29:34
that are you know being called through
00:29:36
by cheaper cheaper rides yes so we have
00:29:40
talked a little bit about congestion
00:29:41
safety and now also pricing what do you
00:29:44
think is government's role like what
00:29:46
should government be playing in this we
00:29:49
have seen a few regions where they have
00:29:52
started to allow for the testing of
00:29:53
autonomous vehicles in the future where
00:29:55
we eventually get to little finalists me
00:29:58
also internet of cars like how do you
00:30:00
think government should be reacting to
00:30:02
this yeah I hope you guys think so I
00:30:07
think government plays an incredibly
00:30:10
important role because it's not won any
00:30:14
particular institution or agency it's
00:30:17
really to borrow a phrase from the
00:30:19
pandemic we're all in this together
00:30:20
right it's it's not any one entity
00:30:22
that's going to make it and it's both
00:30:26
the public-private partnerships that
00:30:28
have to be reimagined but it's also
00:30:31
going to be the public public
00:30:32
partnerships that have to be reimagined
00:30:34
because in any region if you will the
00:30:36
cephus Cabiria la area whatever it's you
00:30:39
have multiple jurisdictions
00:30:40
which is why sometimes transportation
00:30:42
projects are next to impossible to make
00:30:44
system-wide because you have competing
00:30:46
jurisdictions that's why Bart for
00:30:49
instance I guess doesn't go around the
00:30:51
bay even let's call the Bay Area Rapid
00:30:54
Transit it's only part of the day right
00:30:56
it's only half half Bart I guess so so I
00:31:00
think for this to work government is
00:31:03
gonna have to be themselves
00:31:06
tuitions at all levels city county
00:31:08
regional state federal there's anything
00:31:11
with some kind of coordination - I guess
00:31:13
reduce that each will have a role to
00:31:15
play for sure right and they'll all want
00:31:17
to have a role to play they all have
00:31:19
their own levels of responsibilities and
00:31:21
constituents they have to be accountable
00:31:24
to and then between the private sector
00:31:26
and public that has to be a rematch in
00:31:29
two and by that what I mean by that is
00:31:31
for instance can we rethink about how we
00:31:33
do public-private partnerships you know
00:31:35
in a way that seems to be sometimes
00:31:37
antagonistic right or it's sort of like
00:31:39
I'm gonna ask for permission I'm gonna
00:31:42
do it and then I'll beg for forgiveness
00:31:43
kind of thing I think we have to you
00:31:45
know I hope get beyond that you know
00:31:47
seriously and really find a way for
00:31:49
companies and and government and I know
00:31:52
companies have been doing not all
00:31:54
companies are bad actors right but but I
00:31:57
think let's do a better job of that so
00:32:00
that right so there's these things that
00:32:02
government can do at all levels and
00:32:04
companies can do work better because
00:32:07
again we're all in this together right
00:32:09
and so let's try to work together to
00:32:12
make it happen um a huge amount of time
00:32:15
talking to government leaders about
00:32:17
smart cities and urban mobilities for
00:32:19
the last decade but a ton at Zuke's one
00:32:22
of our first hires was the ex head of
00:32:24
the National Highway Traffic Safety
00:32:26
Association dr. mark rosekind who's an
00:32:29
incredible expert on the subject was at
00:32:32
Stanford before another Stanford guy and
00:32:35
he came in and said we have to look at
00:32:38
every level first while he was in the
00:32:40
federal government in Washington DC he's
00:32:42
the one the way we met him is we're a
00:32:44
10-person start-up he flew out to
00:32:46
Silicon Valley and said I want to meet
00:32:48
with the companies who are gonna be
00:32:50
leading this autonomous revolution
00:32:53
that's coming forth so I'm here to get
00:32:55
educated because the last thing I want
00:32:56
to do is stop the progress because these
00:32:59
are going to hopefully make cities much
00:33:01
safer much cleaner with lower congestion
00:33:04
if done correctly so you know he said
00:33:07
the last thing I want to do is pass new
00:33:08
regulations that stop the flow of
00:33:11
innovation which was incredible you
00:33:13
don't think about the federal government
00:33:14
coming out saying I want to learn from
00:33:16
innovators and you know earlier in my
00:33:18
career the thought was hey
00:33:19
stay you know work on whatever whatever
00:33:21
products you're working on don't waste
00:33:23
your time with government they're slow
00:33:25
they're gonna lag 10 years don't even
00:33:27
think about it and in this case he said
00:33:29
look you know I'm gonna be asked to do
00:33:31
this and so I need to I need to be able
00:33:34
to meet with you and so we worked with
00:33:35
him very closely for about a year and he
00:33:39
liked the company so much that when his
00:33:41
term was in the previous administration
00:33:43
he came and joined zukes full-time and
00:33:45
then he decided he wanted to raise the
00:33:48
bar for safety and set a new record for
00:33:52
security and say hey our goal is gonna
00:33:55
be zero crashes so it's not we're gonna
00:33:57
be slightly better than human drivers
00:33:59
we're gonna be we're gonna have zero
00:34:01
crashes so what are all the safety
00:34:04
systems we need to build and how would
00:34:05
we need to architect the system to
00:34:08
ensure that we can get to zero crashes
00:34:10
and then and then is miles driven really
00:34:14
the best indicator of whether a software
00:34:17
system is ready know all miles are not
00:34:19
created equal I can drive miles in a
00:34:22
on a country road and I may drive a
00:34:25
million of them but I don't see a lot of
00:34:27
pedestrians like I do in a crazy city so
00:34:30
is that really the best indicator of a
00:34:32
safe system of technological progress so
00:34:36
he started talking to regular later
00:34:39
saying hey you shouldn't be judging
00:34:41
based on miles driven then we even got
00:34:43
down to the local law enforcement guys
00:34:45
because what happens if an autonomous
00:34:48
vehicle is misbehaving
00:34:50
how would local law enforcement want to
00:34:52
deal with that and so we started having
00:34:55
sessions with them talking about how to
00:34:57
first responders work and how would they
00:35:00
like to work with an autonomous vehicle
00:35:01
so but that's the u.s. outside the u.s.
00:35:05
the Singaporean government of course has
00:35:08
come up with some autonomous only cities
00:35:10
and areas they're looking at underground
00:35:13
highways that are all autonomous you
00:35:15
know they're able to really have a much
00:35:18
bigger say on how they architect a
00:35:20
transportation system in Singapore in
00:35:23
China of course there's been a huge push
00:35:27
towards moving towards autonomy working
00:35:29
with the large internet providers Japan
00:35:31
is very concerned of their aging
00:35:33
halation so there is a ton of government
00:35:36
interest I would say your Apple s so I
00:35:39
think the US and Asia will really drive
00:35:42
this forward but I have found the US
00:35:45
regulators to be pretty tremendous
00:35:47
actually and wanting to work with
00:35:49
companies to ensure that they don't put
00:35:51
in place regulation that is untenable I
00:35:54
think if I may I wanted to riff a little
00:35:57
bit on that theme of efficiency with
00:35:59
what Laurie and John have just said
00:36:01
recently and if one focuses too much on
00:36:04
just one aspect of transportation in the
00:36:07
future city you're actually missing the
00:36:09
big picture because you know in
00:36:11
improving efficiency not everybody is
00:36:13
going to be driving around with one
00:36:15
another by themselves or with another
00:36:17
people in a driverless car and that's
00:36:20
the solution
00:36:21
there are obviously public
00:36:22
transportation challenges there's this
00:36:25
element of multi-modality maybe there'll
00:36:27
be some airplanes in the mix etc etc and
00:36:30
and I guess I wanted to ask my
00:36:32
co-panelists to know a lot more than I
00:36:35
do about this is that if you start
00:36:38
looking at various different
00:36:40
transportation options for you know 20
00:36:43
million people or in an urban area and
00:36:45
and you really look at multi-modality
00:36:48
how can the autonomy begin to help us
00:36:51
improve the efficiency of the entire
00:36:53
system right and the safety of course
00:36:55
obviously I think that the zero accident
00:36:57
goal is is the the right one but is
00:37:01
there is there a way to improve the
00:37:04
infrastructure in cities such that the
00:37:06
multimodal transportation systems are
00:37:08
most likely to be successful can
00:37:10
actually be successful right that's the
00:37:12
question I'm asking myself and I'm not
00:37:14
quite sure what the answer so I'll take
00:37:16
it all right on that one what I think
00:37:19
autonomy the definition of it for me is
00:37:21
that it's a systems quality not a system
00:37:25
of the agent right and so when
00:37:28
describing autonomy you have to look at
00:37:30
the agent plus the environment by which
00:37:32
it is operating in or designed to
00:37:34
operate in and and and you can have a
00:37:36
full definition autonomy without that
00:37:38
and I think sometimes autonomous
00:37:40
vehicles we get there's some discussion
00:37:42
but I think we might lose sight of that
00:37:44
and so this is maybe not the best
00:37:45
example but I do think you know
00:37:47
things like elevators are a type of
00:37:50
autonomous vehicle I think an amusement
00:37:52
park rides are part of autonomous
00:37:54
vehicles so you know one could say okay
00:37:57
they're primitive but they're kind of
00:37:59
autonomous in a sense so on the issue of
00:38:01
infrastructure I think it's critical I
00:38:03
think you have to include discussion of
00:38:05
what is infrastructure to make it work
00:38:08
and then infrastructure is pretty broad
00:38:10
right it's how we design streets is how
00:38:13
we design the interaction between
00:38:16
vehicles and people and those types of
00:38:19
things so in short yeah I think without
00:38:21
an adequate discussion of infrastructure
00:38:23
which is a topic that government can
00:38:26
provide or be responsible for then I
00:38:28
think it's difficult to to have a really
00:38:32
good working multimodal transportation
00:38:34
system
00:38:35
I think it's been interesting meeting
00:38:37
with different city planners and right
00:38:40
before the shutdown I happen to be up in
00:38:41
Seattle meeting with the head of the
00:38:43
Seattle Department of Transportation as
00:38:45
they were trying to figure out what
00:38:47
their needs were and I think you have to
00:38:48
start with the goals of your city
00:38:50
because as we know Singapore is one of
00:38:54
the few places that can start with a
00:38:55
blank sheet and build whatever they want
00:38:57
to build in other cities we have to take
00:38:59
into account what's working what's not
00:39:01
what stuff can we move on what stuff
00:39:03
can't we you know I think it's
00:39:04
interesting in the Bay Area you know we
00:39:06
have a high speed train discussion on
00:39:09
the ballot most years but there are a
00:39:12
lot of dislocations that would occur and
00:39:15
so it's been put back and so I think
00:39:18
every city planner has to sit down and
00:39:20
say what are the goals and as you know
00:39:23
in government you have to ask your
00:39:25
citizens and they have to sign off on
00:39:27
that bond measure or decide that that's
00:39:29
the right thing to spend money on and
00:39:32
that's the right problem to solve
00:39:33
so I think transportation is one piece
00:39:37
because you've also got health care and
00:39:39
education and homelessness and all the
00:39:42
other things and so as a city planner
00:39:44
you have to say what am i solving with
00:39:47
transportation and in Seattle's capes
00:39:50
they kept reiterating we've got to let
00:39:52
anyone get to their job in a
00:39:55
cost-effective manner
00:39:56
well that's gonna be very different than
00:39:58
you know you may want to make sure that
00:39:59
there are scooters and
00:40:01
bikes and buses and every route and it
00:40:04
may be I mean they couldn't care less
00:40:06
about autonomy right now if they're not
00:40:07
solving the problem so you know what
00:40:10
what problem am I trying to solve what's
00:40:11
working on what's not working because I
00:40:13
have an existing city and take a look at
00:40:16
certainly what others are doing but I
00:40:18
met with city leaders from the Middle
00:40:20
East who are trying to create whole new
00:40:22
cities from scratch who have very
00:40:25
different constraints and needs for
00:40:28
efficiency and needs for the population
00:40:32
so but it's interesting and I think the
00:40:35
Seattle d-o-t has it on its website
00:40:37
presentation given and that was pretty
00:40:39
interesting in terms of what their goals
00:40:41
were it wouldn't be the same goals as
00:40:43
every other city Laurie you alluded to
00:40:46
very briefly just this idea of
00:40:48
accessibility and affordability is a
00:40:50
little bit of what I was hearing from
00:40:52
you question for everyone is how do you
00:40:55
think about user trust and auction being
00:40:58
a barrier to deploying autonomous
00:41:00
mobility in smart cities I think it's a
00:41:03
big deal that you know I think is
00:41:05
somewhat easy to gain in my view but if
00:41:08
you if there is a problem then it is
00:41:10
easy it's hard to get get back I do
00:41:13
think that COBIT 19 endemic is like that
00:41:17
in a sense that how when mobile we feel
00:41:19
safe getting back into large groups
00:41:20
right and it's before it was a
00:41:23
no-brainer but maybe we'll be thinking
00:41:25
about a little bit more carefully when
00:41:27
the sheltering place orders lifted we're
00:41:29
gonna be a more careful site I think the
00:41:31
trust is going to be important because
00:41:33
and Trust involves things like public
00:41:35
support right supporting bond measures
00:41:37
taxes etc to allow these systems to you
00:41:41
know get the either the funding of the
00:41:43
regulatory environment to be be
00:41:45
favorable so I think Trust is
00:41:47
exceedingly important I think this is a
00:41:49
huge issue if I said that I'm going to
00:41:51
send an airplane to come outside of your
00:41:53
house pick you up and take you to San
00:41:55
Francisco in 25 minutes and from San
00:41:58
Jose let's say instead of taking you an
00:42:00
hour and 45 minutes during rush hour you
00:42:02
know please raise your hand if you would
00:42:05
actually get on that airplane tomorrow
00:42:06
well if I change that around
00:42:09
and I I actually asked you if an
00:42:12
autonomous car came to your house in San
00:42:14
Jose and it took it said that was going
00:42:15
to take it to San Francisco to your
00:42:17
destination how many of you would take
00:42:18
that today so Trust is a humongous issue
00:42:21
and and it's it's also an issue that
00:42:24
will get easier when we have an entire
00:42:27
fleet that's autonomous in some you
00:42:30
topical feature when that happens but in
00:42:32
the meanwhile where the guarantee of
00:42:34
safety cannot be provided by even the
00:42:37
perfect sensor and autonomous system
00:42:40
right John may come in and drive from
00:42:43
the side and even with 360 degree thing
00:42:45
it may be an area that he's not as well
00:42:48
at the speed he's traveling at to
00:42:49
actually hit me so so let's be honest
00:42:52
you cannot guarantee to me today that an
00:42:53
autonomous vehicle is going to be
00:42:55
perfectly safe in a mixed environment
00:42:57
with other people in a longer feature it
00:42:59
may so we have to accumulate that's sort
00:43:03
of experience that leads to societal
00:43:05
change and this comes from a guy who got
00:43:07
up into one of these autonomous
00:43:08
airplanes that they got vertically in
00:43:10
China about a year ago but I trust it's
00:43:18
fundamental and as John said it develops
00:43:22
slowly and it can be lost in a flash so
00:43:24
we have to manage that and I think
00:43:26
there's a corporate and social
00:43:28
responsibility to migrate in the desired
00:43:31
direction at a reasonable pace you have
00:43:34
to take it into account but you know I
00:43:36
got into the first Google prototype in
00:43:40
2006 I think and going at like 80 miles
00:43:43
an hour around cones and it was one of
00:43:46
the most terrifying experiences of my
00:43:48
life but it was totally fun and of
00:43:50
course I never I didn't give it a second
00:43:51
thought before I got into the vehicle so
00:43:53
for me you know I don't have a lot of
00:43:56
issue I remember when uber right one
00:43:58
uber came out in LA I was traveling with
00:44:01
a friend who said oh there's this cool
00:44:02
new app I just downloaded and you're
00:44:04
supposed to be able to call a taxi and I
00:44:06
didn't have to sit down and read a
00:44:08
training manual on uber before I took my
00:44:10
first one and once I took my first one
00:44:12
it was like so I think sometimes we
00:44:14
overestimate you're right and the mass
00:44:16
majority of the population I will pick
00:44:19
on my family members but when I tried to
00:44:20
explain the concept of uber to my sister
00:44:23
ones in Canada where they don't have it
00:44:25
they're like what are you talking about
00:44:28
again it really depends and we need to
00:44:32
get 100% of the mass market or do we
00:44:34
need to get some percentage who are
00:44:35
willing to try something new is it's
00:44:38
what we get to do here and again I think
00:44:40
we're gonna be supply constrained so I
00:44:42
don't see that gating issue do you need
00:44:45
to make sure consumers feel comfortable
00:44:46
absolutely do you need to make radius
00:44:49
make sure regulators feel comfortable
00:44:50
absolutely but you have time to roll it
00:44:53
out nobody says we're gonna go we're
00:44:55
gonna do this quick changeover from all
00:44:58
of today's vehicles to autonomous
00:45:00
vehicles next year it's gonna be this
00:45:02
massive changeover of the whole planet
00:45:03
you know that is not the integration
00:45:05
plan and I think you know as you looked
00:45:08
with ride-sharing it was the same thing
00:45:10
and scooters it was the same thing it's
00:45:12
not a changeover it's the multi multi
00:45:14
modality that you talked about and some
00:45:17
consumers also don't get on a scooter
00:45:18
because they think they're scary and
00:45:20
unsafe so I think the great thing is
00:45:23
consumers will choose what kind of
00:45:25
Transportation they want to take one
00:45:27
final question I have what is a
00:45:29
realistic timeline for the implication
00:45:31
of autonomous vehicles in the u.s. it
00:45:33
seems like there's a lot of people who
00:45:35
constantly say two to three years away
00:45:37
every few months or every for the past
00:45:39
few years I do want to distinguish
00:45:42
between the different levels of autonomy
00:45:44
when you do provide that response and
00:45:46
would be curious on what your thoughts
00:45:48
are yeah this this I think there's if
00:45:51
the question is if the sense of it is
00:45:54
mass presence I do think that is too far
00:45:58
away to say right to with any degree of
00:46:00
fermi certainty if you were to say well
00:46:03
what about in a neighborhoods well we
00:46:06
kind of know that's already happening
00:46:07
with way mo so I I think the for me that
00:46:11
the question of when will be a mass
00:46:12
service that is readily available for a
00:46:15
lot of people generally speaking to me
00:46:18
the answer is too far away to say with
00:46:20
any it would be a speculation not even
00:46:24
an educated guess am I might be point
00:46:26
but if it's like hey in my in Stanford
00:46:28
campus yeah I think it would be this
00:46:30
year actually right you could do it this
00:46:32
year right because for a lot of
00:46:34
different reasons so as I think and I
00:46:36
believe so there
00:46:37
for I believe the way we roll out is
00:46:39
what how kind of this very micro or very
00:46:42
constrained geographic areas where these
00:46:44
things can operate and I think that way
00:46:46
is good you'll develop trust and your
00:46:49
develop experience on all sides
00:46:51
everybody gets familiar and then you'll
00:46:54
just grow to borrow Cydia virally right
00:46:57
they'll grow virally and we know virally
00:47:00
it could be really effective right so
00:47:02
you start small you just kind of grow it
00:47:03
to some mass point at some point in the
00:47:05
future which leads is pure speculation
00:47:07
at this point yeah I completely agree
00:47:10
you have to look at is the technology
00:47:12
ready and in what circumstances and then
00:47:16
you have to look at are the regulator's
00:47:17
ready and are the consumers ready and
00:47:19
has is the city ready right and so you
00:47:22
know when will level-5 be ready from a
00:47:25
strict technology perspective if you
00:47:28
don't have the levels memorized level
00:47:30
five is you know can work anywhere that
00:47:32
a car can work under all weather
00:47:34
conditions I don't think that's actually
00:47:37
the right question I think you have to
00:47:39
look at where is our technology
00:47:40
readiness where is our city reception
00:47:43
and where the consumers want it and the
00:47:46
technology is very hard it's there's a
00:47:48
lot to build in the software again to be
00:47:51
able to handle all conditions and not
00:47:54
just the use case for example delivery
00:47:58
vehicles in non crowded places there
00:48:00
someone else asked about trucks long
00:48:02
haul trucking an easier problem to solve
00:48:04
because there are a number of schemes
00:48:06
were you know while the driver is
00:48:08
sleeping on the highway economy could
00:48:11
take over and much like autopilot in
00:48:13
planes you know this concept of
00:48:15
autopilot when somebody needs some show
00:48:18
or needs is distracted you know highways
00:48:21
are pretty straight you tend not to have
00:48:22
dogs cats and rodents cruising around
00:48:25
and people in crosswalks so highways
00:48:28
some would argue is a is a safer use
00:48:31
case so I think it's it's hard to say
00:48:32
when will it be ready everywhere and you
00:48:35
know the question is do we really want
00:48:37
all cities to go autonomous everywhere I
00:48:39
still ride my bike on the weekends I'm
00:48:40
not going to take an autonomous vehicle
00:48:42
in the weekends I you know I take
00:48:44
different transportation based on what I
00:48:46
want to take and again I think the
00:48:47
supply you can't forget about the supply
00:48:51
limitation there is not this world where
00:48:52
cities suddenly become all autonomous
00:48:54
with the exception of Singapore wanting
00:48:57
to do that or somewhere in the Middle
00:48:58
East but I don't think in the u.s. we're
00:49:01
gonna suddenly see autonomous cities
00:49:03
except for theme parks one could argue
00:49:04
today theme parks have rides that go
00:49:07
around and take you around and their
00:49:09
little trains and their sky rides and
00:49:11
you know you see that theme parks but
00:49:13
and I think on campuses you're already
00:49:16
seeing autonomous vehicles that are
00:49:17
cruising around either delivering
00:49:19
people's mail or or giving people
00:49:22
arrived from one end of the campus to
00:49:23
the other one do you have any crystal
00:49:25
ball inside vehicle person but what
00:49:29
really strikes me is that the
00:49:31
environments in which these vehicles
00:49:33
operate are going to dictate the level
00:49:35
of safety that you can guarantee and
00:49:37
therefore it's going to be a sort of an
00:49:38
incremental from simpler as they were
00:49:40
being as it was being said to more
00:49:42
difficult there is no question that you
00:49:44
know getting in a way more car in a test
00:49:46
track with a bunch of cones at whatever
00:49:47
speed is is quite a bit simpler than
00:49:50
getting into you know Rome at 4:00 p.m.
00:49:53
with pedestrians and people driving like
00:49:55
crazy right the city so I think the
00:49:58
environment the conditions and
00:49:59
everything else plays a role and I think
00:50:01
we'll see you know sort of progressive
00:50:03
introduction in in simpler settings
00:50:06
first and more complicated later on
00:50:08
while we build a database of knowledge
00:50:10
safety we guarantee some support I I was
00:50:13
hoping to have something I'm still
00:50:15
hoping by the time I can outdrive
00:50:17
anymore and Laurie wants to take my
00:50:18
license away
00:50:19
I will be able to have
