China celebrates Trump's talks with Russia | DW News

00:17:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF4lfqbp71g

Ringkasan

TLDR在慕尼黑安全会议上，中国前军官乔·B谈论了乌克兰战争、北约的角色以及中美关系。他认为中国可以在乌克兰提供集体安全保障和参与战后重建。乔·B批评北约扩张导致了俄乌冲突，中国对特朗普希望改善中美关系表示欢迎。他分析了中美未来关系，强调中国希望以和平方式统一台湾，同时注重核武器的现代化。

Takeaways

  • 🕊️ 中国欢迎任何有关和平的倡议。
  • 🔒 必须提供集体安全保障才能结束冲突。
  • 🌍 北约扩张是冲突的重要因素。
  • 🏗️ 中国在战后重建中将发挥重要作用。
  • 💬 特朗普的言论可能改善中欧关系。
  • 📈 中国的核武器现代化是合理的。
  • 🤝 各国需与俄罗斯共存以确保安全。
  • 📉 美国的单边行动可能损害中美关系。
  • 🚀 中美关系未来将继续受到关注。
  • 🛡️ 核 arms control 是未来重要议题。

Garis waktu

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    在慕尼黑安全会议上，聚焦跨大西洋关系和乌克兰战争，由中国军事分析师乔·B主任分享他的观察。乔认为，中国欢迎任何旨在实现乌克兰和平的提议，并指出中国可能在提供集体安全保障方面发挥作用。他提及中国在基础设施重建方面的优势，并讨论了可能的和平维持和后期重建。

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    乔分析了北约的扩张与俄罗斯的关系，认为由于北约的存在，当前的战争与双方的安全理念存在深层次的矛盾。他强调，欧洲的安全不能忽视与俄罗斯的共存，并提出未来的安全局势应更多地考虑这一点。同时，乔提到中国与欧盟关系改善的潜在机会，尤其是在欧洲对美国副总统Vance的批评后，可能促使欧洲与中国的接触加深。

  • 00:10:00 - 00:17:00

    关于特朗普的新政策，乔表达了对美国外交政策的担忧。他认为特朗普的言论可能会削弱美国的国际形象，尤其是其对台湾的态度。他阐释了中国在核武器现代化方面的必要性，并警告如果美国继续考虑对中国使用核武器，这将可能使局势更加复杂和危险。

Peta Pikiran

Video Tanya Jawab

  • 中国在乌克兰战争中扮演怎样的角色？

    中国欢迎任何有关和平的倡议，并认为可以为乌克兰和俄罗斯提供集体安全保障。

  • 乔·B对北约扩张的看法如何？

    他认为北约扩张是导致乌克兰战争的重要因素，并强调各国需要与俄罗斯共存。

  • 特朗普关于和平倡议的言论有什么意义？

    乔·B认为特朗普的发言可能为中国与欧洲的关系改善提供机会。

  • 中国在战后重建中能发挥什么作用？

    中国在基础设施建设方面具有优势，能够更快速、更高效地进行重建。

  • 中国的核武器扩展有什么原因？

    乔·B表示中国需要现代化武器装备，虽然其核武器数量仍远低于美俄。

  • 中美关系未来会如何发展？

    乔·B认为如果美国继续采取单边行动，可能对中美关系产生负面影响。

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Gulir Otomatis:
  • 00:00:00
    we're here at the Munich security
  • 00:00:02
    conference where transatlantic relations
  • 00:00:03
    and ending the Ukraine war have been the
  • 00:00:05
    primary focus but we want to get the
  • 00:00:07
    view from the other superpower in the
  • 00:00:09
    world China and we're going to speak
  • 00:00:11
    with Colonel senior Colonel Joe B who's
  • 00:00:14
    a former member of the Chinese military
  • 00:00:16
    he's now an analyst at singua University
  • 00:00:18
    he's a regular at the Munich security
  • 00:00:20
    conference joal thanks for speaking to
  • 00:00:22
    DW we've seen what's been going on these
  • 00:00:25
    last few days in Munich um the Trump
  • 00:00:28
    Administration is pushing a new idea of
  • 00:00:31
    bringing about peace in Ukraine Donald
  • 00:00:33
    Trump once talks with Vladimir Putin
  • 00:00:36
    does the PRC does China welcome this do
  • 00:00:39
    you see Trump potentially as a
  • 00:00:41
    peacemaker I think any ideas about peace
  • 00:00:45
    in Ukraine is welcomed in China in fact
  • 00:00:48
    Donald Trump himself has asked China to
  • 00:00:50
    help this is interesting for me to
  • 00:00:52
    observe as a Chinese because he previous
  • 00:00:55
    talked about how he could resolve this
  • 00:00:57
    within 24 hours of course that is a kind
  • 00:01:00
    of rhetorics during election but the
  • 00:01:02
    fact that he asked China uh to help
  • 00:01:05
    really demonstrate that China might have
  • 00:01:07
    a role in the war in Ukraine I believe
  • 00:01:10
    China's Ro first of all is in joining
  • 00:01:12
    other major power in providing kind of
  • 00:01:15
    collective security guarantee to Ukraine
  • 00:01:17
    and even to Russia why because this kind
  • 00:01:20
    of a collective security guarantee is
  • 00:01:23
    often talked about uh talked about by
  • 00:01:25
    President lazinski and is also deep in
  • 00:01:28
    the memory of all ukrainians when
  • 00:01:31
    Ukraine decid to relinquish nuclear
  • 00:01:33
    weapons in 1990s so this is what they
  • 00:01:37
    remember so yes we don't know how long
  • 00:01:39
    the world will last except that the
  • 00:01:41
    world will last for a while uh but no
  • 00:01:44
    world will last forever so there
  • 00:01:46
    definitely will be a time when people uh
  • 00:01:48
    will discuss how to have a ceasefire
  • 00:01:51
    then the question as raised by Ukrainian
  • 00:01:54
    from time to time is who is going to
  • 00:01:56
    guarantee the ceire so I think at this
  • 00:01:58
    time China can join the major Po in
  • 00:02:01
    providing this kind of a collective
  • 00:02:03
    security guarantee the second possible
  • 00:02:06
    assistance from China is that if people
  • 00:02:09
    have so decided I mean the Waring
  • 00:02:11
    countries have decided to have uh uh
  • 00:02:14
    peacekeeping operations yeah then I
  • 00:02:17
    believe China and countries like China
  • 00:02:20
    India might be the best troop
  • 00:02:23
    contributing TR contributing countries
  • 00:02:26
    in that uh for uh Europeans to do this
  • 00:02:30
    as proposed by polish prime minister as
  • 00:02:32
    proposed by U French president would not
  • 00:02:35
    be realistic in that Russia definitely
  • 00:02:37
    would take it as another way of NATO
  • 00:02:40
    presence in uh Ukraine the third
  • 00:02:43
    possible assistance is the post war uh
  • 00:02:47
    reconstruction China's capability in
  • 00:02:50
    infrastructure is next to none so I
  • 00:02:53
    don't need to elaborate on that I think
  • 00:02:54
    this is just the self-evident China can
  • 00:02:57
    just do it more quickly and do it more
  • 00:02:59
    efficiently at a lower cost the you
  • 00:03:02
    mentioned NATO the Trump Administration
  • 00:03:04
    has sort of indicated although there's
  • 00:03:06
    some confusion about this but indicated
  • 00:03:08
    that it might take the idea of Ukraine
  • 00:03:10
    joining NATO eventually off the table do
  • 00:03:14
    you think that's a good thing to remove
  • 00:03:15
    that because China's generally been
  • 00:03:18
    pretty critical of NATO expansion uh uh
  • 00:03:21
    we in China uh really consider that um
  • 00:03:24
    this world has something to do with NATO
  • 00:03:26
    expansion because uh yes people talking
  • 00:03:29
    about talking about this kind of
  • 00:03:31
    invasion by Russia uh against Ukraine
  • 00:03:36
    but the people for forgot that actually
  • 00:03:38
    starting from mik grov down to Boris
  • 00:03:41
    yson down to President Putin that means
  • 00:03:44
    from Soviet time to Russia today uh uh
  • 00:03:47
    Soviet and Russian leaders have been
  • 00:03:49
    warning about this kind of expansion
  • 00:03:52
    yeah Russia yes is uh uh concerned with
  • 00:03:56
    sphere of influence spere influence
  • 00:03:58
    basically is a dirty word if kind not be
  • 00:04:00
    put on the table but if Russia would
  • 00:04:04
    like to uh fight for safeguarding its
  • 00:04:07
    feere of influence then there is feere
  • 00:04:09
    influence we cannot change the russan
  • 00:04:11
    mentality but this is reality what
  • 00:04:13
    happen in the war so I believe NATO
  • 00:04:16
    really has a lot to do with this war
  • 00:04:18
    then about the future of NATO uh the
  • 00:04:21
    question is with the Western democ going
  • 00:04:24
    down would NATO become really uh uh
  • 00:04:28
    Stronger probably people say that the
  • 00:04:32
    membership of Finland and and and Sweden
  • 00:04:36
    may be approved of NATO's growing with
  • 00:04:38
    strength I don't think so I used to say
  • 00:04:40
    that NATO is a zombie that is still
  • 00:04:42
    working why because U uh this kind of
  • 00:04:46
    military Alliance all military Alliance
  • 00:04:48
    live on threat they're just like Lees
  • 00:04:51
    sucking blood so they have to find
  • 00:04:54
    enemies yes but kind of isn't it true
  • 00:04:57
    that the threat is Russia I mean Russia
  • 00:04:58
    invaded Ukraine
  • 00:05:00
    Ukraine has the right to make its own
  • 00:05:02
    choices why does Russia have a right to
  • 00:05:05
    decide what Ukraine wants to do you see
  • 00:05:07
    but even before the war I'm not just uh
  • 00:05:10
    try to defend Russia but it's true that
  • 00:05:13
    even before this war NATO has taken uh
  • 00:05:16
    Russia as a threat because after the
  • 00:05:18
    dissolution of Soviet Union the future
  • 00:05:21
    of NATO is not that certain but for for
  • 00:05:23
    NATO to survive they have to find a kind
  • 00:05:26
    of threat and who can be the threat in
  • 00:05:28
    the old day Soviet Union and now is of
  • 00:05:30
    course this is Russia so I I believe
  • 00:05:33
    that this kind of military Alliance
  • 00:05:35
    actually would not strengthen uh even
  • 00:05:37
    Western democracy on the contrary it
  • 00:05:39
    actually uh invites the war so the
  • 00:05:43
    fundamental question about the security
  • 00:05:45
    in Europe is that NATO has to uh coexist
  • 00:05:50
    with Russia like it or not because
  • 00:05:53
    Russia cannot be wished away so the
  • 00:05:55
    security of Europe is essentially how
  • 00:05:58
    they can coexist the people have to
  • 00:06:00
    think about that you just cannot look at
  • 00:06:02
    the fact a simple a few simple events so
  • 00:06:05
    so let's fast forward to now so that's
  • 00:06:08
    part of the history certainly the
  • 00:06:09
    Chinese view of it at this conference
  • 00:06:12
    has been dominated really the
  • 00:06:13
    discussions around these Halls by
  • 00:06:15
    conversations about this speech by JD
  • 00:06:17
    Vance the the US vice president in which
  • 00:06:20
    he criticized uh European democracy
  • 00:06:22
    particularly German
  • 00:06:23
    democracy uh many see this as an
  • 00:06:26
    opportunity for China to improve
  • 00:06:29
    relations with Europe which is reeling
  • 00:06:31
    from this criticism do you see that
  • 00:06:33
    opportunity taking shape I think
  • 00:06:35
    definitely uh Europe will think about
  • 00:06:38
    what V said and what is going to do next
  • 00:06:42
    in fact according to Financial Times
  • 00:06:44
    this kind of this kind of inching
  • 00:06:47
    together between China and EU is already
  • 00:06:50
    happening because this is what I read
  • 00:06:52
    from K rockman's uh opinion yeah in
  • 00:06:55
    which we quoted our European official
  • 00:06:57
    saying believe me this is already
  • 00:06:58
    happening so I think this conference
  • 00:07:01
    will tell how Europeans would actually
  • 00:07:03
    become disappointed with JD van speech
  • 00:07:07
    because even as a Chinese I surprised I
  • 00:07:10
    I thought because people's concern here
  • 00:07:12
    is primarily um Ukraine therefore he
  • 00:07:15
    will talk a lot about Ukraine and then
  • 00:07:17
    because the United States is in
  • 00:07:19
    so-called strategic competition with
  • 00:07:21
    China therefore he were talking about us
  • 00:07:24
    China competition but he has not talked
  • 00:07:27
    about all these at all instead he's
  • 00:07:29
    talking about something that surprised
  • 00:07:32
    the you know Europeans and angered them
  • 00:07:34
    so this is interesting so is it is it
  • 00:07:37
    feel like a gift to to the Chinese
  • 00:07:39
    delegation I think this is not what we
  • 00:07:41
    have created but as a result I think the
  • 00:07:44
    Europeans will feel that they have to
  • 00:07:46
    strike a balance because this is this is
  • 00:07:50
    what is already uh uh happening because
  • 00:07:54
    even V Line talked about you know having
  • 00:07:56
    new agreement with China so even before
  • 00:07:59
    this conference so the European leaders
  • 00:08:01
    has said something and in and it's
  • 00:08:03
    always in China's interest to have good
  • 00:08:05
    relationship with Europe because for
  • 00:08:08
    China this war actually is uh somewhat
  • 00:08:11
    unfair for China in that China is not
  • 00:08:13
    involved this war China is not inform
  • 00:08:15
    about this war but because this war
  • 00:08:17
    China's relationship with European
  • 00:08:19
    capitals have become sou and this is not
  • 00:08:21
    in our interest but of course European
  • 00:08:23
    capitals the reason that the relations
  • 00:08:25
    have been soured is the European
  • 00:08:26
    capitals are very frustrated by by the
  • 00:08:29
    economic and diplomatic backing that the
  • 00:08:32
    Chinese have been providing for Russia
  • 00:08:34
    but I just want to touch on another
  • 00:08:36
    thing relating to this new
  • 00:08:37
    Administration Trump Donald Trump's been
  • 00:08:39
    talking about wanting to take over
  • 00:08:41
    Greenland talking about Canada becoming
  • 00:08:43
    the 51st state of the United States this
  • 00:08:46
    seems to reflect a kind of some people
  • 00:08:48
    call it a neo-imperialism or at least an
  • 00:08:51
    idea that you know wanting to add
  • 00:08:53
    territory to the United States what's
  • 00:08:55
    your take on that well uh actually this
  • 00:08:58
    um uh surprised me as it surprised
  • 00:09:01
    everybody nobody uh has anticipated that
  • 00:09:04
    he would talk about this kind of Gams
  • 00:09:07
    here and there so it is really
  • 00:09:09
    surprising uh what I'm thinking actually
  • 00:09:12
    is not what he's going to next I don't
  • 00:09:15
    know but I believe he will continue to
  • 00:09:17
    surprise people what I'm thinking is at
  • 00:09:19
    the end of his second term Americans uh
  • 00:09:23
    image probably will go down further yeah
  • 00:09:26
    because if all people concluded that uh
  • 00:09:29
    the United States does not want to
  • 00:09:31
    shoulder any International
  • 00:09:33
    responsibility and apart from that they
  • 00:09:35
    want to grab land here and there so what
  • 00:09:38
    is the the moral High Ground of United
  • 00:09:40
    States I mean some point to that and
  • 00:09:43
    worry that um if Trump is sending these
  • 00:09:46
    signals it might suggest that he
  • 00:09:48
    wouldn't mind for instance if China made
  • 00:09:50
    moves to take control of Taiwan um from
  • 00:09:53
    a Chinese point of view do you think
  • 00:09:54
    that is some sort of encouragement that
  • 00:09:56
    that Trump might not stand in the way of
  • 00:10:00
    as you would see it of the
  • 00:10:02
    reunification of Taiwan with the
  • 00:10:05
    People's Republic of China well people
  • 00:10:07
    certainly uh put a lot of uh reference
  • 00:10:11
    yeah to China's intention on Taiwan uh
  • 00:10:15
    be War Ukraine or beat remarks of Donald
  • 00:10:18
    Trump but uh I believe the Chinese
  • 00:10:20
    government has been consistent to uh
  • 00:10:23
    insist that we still would wish to have
  • 00:10:26
    a peaceful reunification so we owning
  • 00:10:28
    would use non peaceful means in Street
  • 00:10:31
    conditions that are uh well documented
  • 00:10:33
    in China's anti- secession law so I
  • 00:10:36
    believe Trump's remarks would not really
  • 00:10:38
    have anything to do with China and how
  • 00:10:40
    could we re resolve this billion dollar
  • 00:10:43
    question about maintaining peace in
  • 00:10:45
    Taiwan State my personal answer is very
  • 00:10:48
    simple we have to let China believe that
  • 00:10:51
    peaceful reunification is still possible
  • 00:10:54
    because one of the last conditions for
  • 00:10:56
    China to uh use non peaceful means is
  • 00:11:01
    that when China concludes that all
  • 00:11:03
    possibilities for peaceful reunification
  • 00:11:06
    are
  • 00:11:07
    exhausted so for for for the rest of the
  • 00:11:11
    world it's extremely important uh to
  • 00:11:13
    assure China that there are still
  • 00:11:16
    opportunities for peaceful reunification
  • 00:11:18
    so uh War across the trate is not
  • 00:11:21
    inevitable um Pete he the defense
  • 00:11:24
    secretary has been saying that one of
  • 00:11:25
    the motivations to to for the US to pull
  • 00:11:28
    back with in Europe is that it needs to
  • 00:11:31
    reassign forces to the Asia Pacific to
  • 00:11:34
    face what he describes as the threat
  • 00:11:36
    from China uh what's your perspective on
  • 00:11:38
    that I don't worry about that at all
  • 00:11:41
    because uh just imagine the United
  • 00:11:44
    States could refocus on uh indopacific
  • 00:11:48
    so who can help uh the United States
  • 00:11:51
    because the Biden Administration has
  • 00:11:53
    placed
  • 00:11:54
    unprecedented you know importance to
  • 00:11:57
    allies right so uh Trump said America
  • 00:12:00
    first but for Biden probably is allies
  • 00:12:02
    first but in the War uh in the
  • 00:12:06
    hypothetical war with China who can
  • 00:12:08
    really help the United States Japan is
  • 00:12:10
    on top of the list but according to
  • 00:12:12
    public opinion poll there are just about
  • 00:12:15
    11% of people who support a direct
  • 00:12:18
    confrontation with China and then it
  • 00:12:20
    goes down to Australia Australia yes
  • 00:12:23
    would buy eight nuclear power submarines
  • 00:12:26
    uh from uh United States and Britain but
  • 00:12:29
    the current uh Australian government has
  • 00:12:31
    made it quite clear that they would not
  • 00:12:33
    be involved in Conflict uh in Taiwan
  • 00:12:36
    State and then come to South Korea South
  • 00:12:38
    Korea would worry more about you know
  • 00:12:41
    Korean Peninsula and on that they
  • 00:12:43
    definitely need support from from
  • 00:12:45
    Chinese government and then the the the
  • 00:12:47
    then the Philippines the Philippines H
  • 00:12:50
    has provided nine military bases that
  • 00:12:53
    are just on the first chain of violence
  • 00:12:55
    that would have a tremendous military
  • 00:12:57
    value for the United States but even the
  • 00:13:00
    Filipinos are not stupid because they
  • 00:13:02
    have laid down conditions for the United
  • 00:13:04
    States to use this bases and they just
  • 00:13:06
    cannot store weapons there they could
  • 00:13:08
    just launch you know attacks from there
  • 00:13:11
    so until right until this moment still
  • 00:13:14
    this is the the the policy so no one's
  • 00:13:16
    stupid I don't believe that in the War
  • 00:13:20
    uh between China and the US in the
  • 00:13:22
    Western Pacific it is a it is a sure
  • 00:13:25
    saying that United States can win
  • 00:13:27
    actually according to uh American stimes
  • 00:13:30
    Mo in most of the war games the United
  • 00:13:33
    States has actually lost to China so I
  • 00:13:36
    mean one of the questions the Americans
  • 00:13:38
    are asking themselves is why is China
  • 00:13:41
    building up its nuclear Arsenal so
  • 00:13:43
    rapidly um the fear is that it it might
  • 00:13:47
    be to serve as a a back stop for for you
  • 00:13:49
    know the kind of war that could
  • 00:13:51
    potentially emerge between the two
  • 00:13:53
    superpowers at some point in the future
  • 00:13:56
    um why is China expanding its nuclear
  • 00:13:58
    forces so fast and will the Chinese be
  • 00:14:01
    open to suggestions from Donald Trump
  • 00:14:03
    which he's been floating as well that he
  • 00:14:05
    would like to talk with the Chinese and
  • 00:14:07
    with SH with Vladimir Putin about Arms
  • 00:14:10
    Control uh first of all uh China is not
  • 00:14:14
    really building his nuclear Arenal uh
  • 00:14:16
    that fast because 90% of the nuclear
  • 00:14:20
    Arenal around the world still belong to
  • 00:14:22
    two countries uh so Russia and the
  • 00:14:25
    United States it's still far behind but
  • 00:14:27
    it is still rapidly accelerating yeah
  • 00:14:29
    but China do have good reasons yeah to
  • 00:14:31
    increase its uh uh nuclear arsenals why
  • 00:14:35
    because first of all you you should you
  • 00:14:37
    know modernize your your weaponries and
  • 00:14:40
    Equipment as it happened to all kinds of
  • 00:14:42
    weapons so it does not mean that you can
  • 00:14:44
    always do the maintenance work I I I
  • 00:14:47
    will give you an example how do I feel
  • 00:14:49
    personally about the war in Ukraine why
  • 00:14:53
    NATO would not uh send any soldiers to
  • 00:14:56
    fight against the Russians I think
  • 00:14:58
    Russian nuclear deterrence has really
  • 00:15:00
    played a critical role then I have to
  • 00:15:03
    compare uh Russia with China the United
  • 00:15:07
    States doesn't seem to care that much be
  • 00:15:10
    involved in the direct conflict with
  • 00:15:13
    China as it would worry in that direct
  • 00:15:15
    conflict with Russia why is that is
  • 00:15:18
    isn't it just because Russia has more
  • 00:15:20
    nuclear weapons China has a more Africa
  • 00:15:23
    carriers than Russia China's military is
  • 00:15:27
    bigger than Russian military and China's
  • 00:15:29
    military budget is three times bigger
  • 00:15:31
    than uh the Russian military so so why
  • 00:15:34
    the United States seems to be less
  • 00:15:36
    operative China so I ask myself this
  • 00:15:38
    question is it because that China has
  • 00:15:40
    just a a nuclear oo that is less than
  • 00:15:43
    one one10 of that of United States if
  • 00:15:46
    that is the case what we need is what we
  • 00:15:49
    need a political decision yeah because
  • 00:15:52
    China has a has strong industry China
  • 00:15:55
    has a technical knowhow and as has Dem
  • 00:15:58
    as has been demonstrated in our uh uh in
  • 00:16:01
    our ICBM launch yeah uh just several
  • 00:16:04
    months ago that our missiles are quite
  • 00:16:07
    all right so the only question for us is
  • 00:16:10
    to increase the number or not and some
  • 00:16:12
    Americans actually have talked about
  • 00:16:14
    using nuclear weapons against the
  • 00:16:16
    Chinese in a conflict in Taiwan state
  • 00:16:18
    that is really really alarming and why
  • 00:16:20
    would they say that they say that
  • 00:16:23
    because they feel that they actually
  • 00:16:25
    have lost their advantage in a
  • 00:16:28
    conventional War Warfare with China in
  • 00:16:30
    Taiwan state so they are just advocating
  • 00:16:32
    using nuclear weapons against China so
  • 00:16:36
    Jo we're going to have to end it there
  • 00:16:37
    but this is a conversation that I would
  • 00:16:38
    love to continue with you because I
  • 00:16:40
    think uh nuclear arms control is
  • 00:16:42
    definitely going to be one of the hot
  • 00:16:43
    hottest issues uh this year and heading
  • 00:16:45
    into next year but for now from Munich
  • 00:16:47
    Joo thank you very much for speaking to
  • 00:16:49
    DW thank you thank you indeed
Tags
  • 慕尼黑安全会议
  • 中国
  • 乌克兰战争
  • 北约扩张
  • 特朗普
  • 中美关系
  • 核武器
  • 和平倡议
  • 战后重建
  • 集体安全