US tax policy outlook – What's ahead for 2025
Ringkasan
TLDRIn this episode of the PwC Accounting Podcast, hosts Heather Horn, Kyle Moffett, and Pat Brown explore the current state of US tax policy and its outlook as key provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act approach their expiration in 2025. With one party controlling all branches of government, there's a heightened focus on potential tax legislation that could significantly impact both corporations and individual taxpayers. The discussion covers the reconciliation process, anticipated changes in corporate tax rates, the fate of environmental initiatives, and the implications of the Global Minimum Tax on international relations. The hosts emphasize the importance for companies to model various tax scenarios to navigate the uncertain landscape and prepare for upcoming changes.
Takeaways
- 📈 Understanding US tax policy is crucial as we approach 2025.
- 🗳️ The reconciliation process simplifies tax legislation passage in the Senate.
- 🚫 Corporate tax rate increase is unlikely, but deductions may face changes.
- 💡 Individuals could see tax increases if Congress doesn’t act.
- 🌱 Environmental incentives may face scrutiny and possible modifications.
- 🌍 The US may not participate in the Global Minimum Tax, affecting international relations.
- 📝 Companies should model different tax scenarios for better planning.
- 🤝 Continuing dialogue among policymakers is key for legislative outcomes.
- 🔍 Tax policy developments require close attention from finance teams.
- 📊 CFOs need to prepare numerical ranges to inform stakeholders.
Garis waktu
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
In today's podcast, Heather Horn introduces a discussion on the US tax policy outlook amid significant political changes and the approaching expiration of tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Guest hosts Kyle Moffett and Pat Brown aim to provide insights on the current state of tax policy and its implications for businesses. They expect pivotal developments as Congress considers potential tax reforms ahead of the 2025 deadlines.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
Pat outlines the importance of 2017's TCJA, the most substantial tax policy shift in three decades, which included a reduction in corporate tax rates. As individual tax cuts are set to expire in 2026, Congress faces pressure to act, lest it be viewed as enacting a tax increase, affecting every W2 wage earner in the country.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
Kyle and Pat discuss the complicated reconciliation process in Congress that allows for tax legislation to be passed with a simple majority. This means that amidst fierce partisan division, Republicans must agree on a budget that addresses both tax cuts and potential increases without exceeding deficit limits, complicating the legislative process.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
The conversation reveals ongoing debates within both the House and Senate about what measures to include in potential tax legislation. Although corporate tax rates are unlikely to increase, there are concerns about possible limitations on corporate tax deductibility for state and local taxes, which could lead to effective tax rate increases.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
As policymakers weigh Trump's proposed tax provisions, including changes to taxes on tipped income and manufacturing, they face a challenge reconciling budgetary considerations with those initiatives. The necessity of finding offsetting measures in a reconciliation context means that companies must prepare for potential shifts in tax policy.
- 00:25:00 - 00:32:37
Finally, Pat emphasizes that companies should develop scenarios around potential legislative outcomes to better inform senior management and investors. The ongoing discussion about the reconciliation process and its implications indicates busy times for tax professionals, as they must navigate uncertainty and prepare for potential changes in tax law.
Peta Pikiran
Video Tanya Jawab
What are the key topics discussed in the podcast?
The podcast discusses the current state of US tax policy, the implications of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and the expected changes in tax legislation.
Who are the guest hosts in this episode?
Kyle Moffett is the guest host, and Pat Brown is the co-host.
What is the significance of the reconciliation process in tax policy?
The reconciliation process allows legislation to pass through the Senate without a 60-vote threshold, enabling tax changes to be enacted more easily.
What potential changes are anticipated in corporate tax rates?
It's unlikely that corporate tax rates will increase, but there may be adjustments affecting deductions.
How might the expiration of individual tax cuts impact taxpayers?
If Congress does nothing, individual tax cuts will expire, leading to increased withholding for many taxpayers.
What should companies do to prepare for potential tax changes?
Companies should model different tax scenarios to understand potential impacts on their financials.
What is the role of environmental initiatives in upcoming legislation?
Environmental credits under the Inflation Reduction Act will be scrutinized, with potential modifications expected.
What are the expected impacts of the Global Minimum Tax?
There may be tension with international relations as the US does not plan to participate, which could impact companies operating globally.
What strategies can CFOs employ regarding tax policy changes?
CFOs should seek a range of numerical outcomes for potential tax changes to better inform stakeholders.
How can companies ensure they are not caught off guard by tax policy changes?
Staying informed and prepared with data-driven financial scenarios can help companies navigate changes effectively.
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- 00:00:00thought leadership from pwc's national
- 00:00:06office hello and welcome to pwc's
- 00:00:09accounting podcast I'm Heather horn in
- 00:00:12today's episode we're diving into the US
- 00:00:15tax policy Outlook with the new
- 00:00:17Administration and key provisions of the
- 00:00:19tax cuts and jobs acts approaching their
- 00:00:22expiration date the political Stakes
- 00:00:24rise making this a pivotal year for tax
- 00:00:27policy in today's episode we discuss the
- 00:00:29current State and the road ahead we'll
- 00:00:32also sharing some key insights on what
- 00:00:34this all means for companies and how to
- 00:00:39prepare joining us as the guest host for
- 00:00:41today's episode is Kyle Moffett pwc's
- 00:00:44professional practice leader and joining
- 00:00:47Kyle for this episode I'm happy to
- 00:00:49welcome back Pat Brown pwc's Washington
- 00:00:52National Tax Services co-leader prior to
- 00:00:55joining PWC Pat spent 16 years in the
- 00:00:57private sector and also served in the US
- 00:01:00treasury's office of tax policy anyone
- 00:01:03who's listened to any of Pat's prior
- 00:01:05podcasts knows he always brings a lot of
- 00:01:07insight and for you new listeners you're
- 00:01:09in for a treat so let's tune in this
- 00:01:12episode now welcome to today's episode
- 00:01:15uh thanks for joining me Pat today we're
- 00:01:17going to dive into uh the latest updates
- 00:01:19and and key issues shaping us tax policy
- 00:01:21in 2025 which given the change in in
- 00:01:24administration and of course now with
- 00:01:26one party controlling all three branches
- 00:01:28of government it's certainly a a Hot
- 00:01:30Topic right now and and there's a lot to
- 00:01:32discuss Pat I know you expect a tax bill
- 00:01:34in 2025 we we keep hearing it um
- 00:01:37especially with the expiration of the
- 00:01:38provisions from the tax cuts and jobs
- 00:01:40act but before we dive into the details
- 00:01:43of what's ahead or what you expect to be
- 00:01:45ahead for us um can you provide an
- 00:01:47overview of the current s of us tax
- 00:01:48policy yeah sure first of all thanks
- 00:01:51Kyle for having me it's great to be here
- 00:01:52and you're right our timing is good yeah
- 00:01:55uh although as we're going to discuss
- 00:01:57I'm sure it remains uncertain exactly
- 00:01:59how all this is going to unfold and
- 00:02:01that's obviously what those of us who
- 00:02:03are in Washington circles are frankly
- 00:02:05reading about every single day multiple
- 00:02:07times a day uh about the various back
- 00:02:09and forth amongst the competing parties
- 00:02:11you know the House Republicans Senate
- 00:02:14Republicans and the White House Etc so
- 00:02:17so where we sit right now and you
- 00:02:18already alluded to it uh we had major
- 00:02:20tax legislation in 2017 right and that
- 00:02:23was the tax cuts and jobs act that was
- 00:02:25really the biggest change we had seen in
- 00:02:27US tax policy in 30 years the last time
- 00:02:31we did anything of that magnitude was
- 00:02:34the tax reform Act of
- 00:02:351986 and that of course was a very
- 00:02:39significant change in US tax policy at
- 00:02:41the time but we hadn't changed it I mean
- 00:02:43the tax code of course changes every
- 00:02:44year but we hadn't seen any really
- 00:02:46significant policy changes in 30 years
- 00:02:49um the Republicans of course with
- 00:02:51President Trump in the white house then
- 00:02:53in 2017 Republicans controlled the house
- 00:02:55and the Senate and so they made the
- 00:02:57decision that tax policy was going to be
- 00:02:59one of the things that they could
- 00:03:00advance on a Partyline basis using this
- 00:03:02process that I'm sure we'll talk about
- 00:03:04as well called
- 00:03:05reconciliation um and so they Advanced
- 00:03:08major tax legislation uh in
- 00:03:102017 much of what our clients focus on
- 00:03:14was of course the corporate tax changes
- 00:03:15reducing the corporate tax rate from
- 00:03:17then 35% one of the highest in the world
- 00:03:20down to 21% which although it is a big
- 00:03:24significant drop in the corporate tax
- 00:03:26rate more or less puts us kind of in the
- 00:03:27middle of the pack of the oecd country
- 00:03:30when it comes to the corporate tax rate
- 00:03:31and so of course from the business
- 00:03:33community's perspective one of the
- 00:03:34things that there's been a lot of
- 00:03:35concern about is well is the corporate
- 00:03:37tax rate going to go back up in this
- 00:03:39exercise in some way that is what
- 00:03:42President Biden had wanted to see happen
- 00:03:43it's what vice president Harris had
- 00:03:45campaigned on I think it's very unlikely
- 00:03:48to that we're going to see a corporate
- 00:03:49tax increase but interestingly enough
- 00:03:51corporate tax is not the action forcing
- 00:03:53event for tax legislation this year the
- 00:03:56corporate tax rate went down from 35 to
- 00:03:5821% as I mentioned that happened on at
- 00:04:00least on a nominally permanent basis
- 00:04:02that is to say it was put in the code as
- 00:04:04a change with no sunset or no expiration
- 00:04:07there were also a bunch of individual
- 00:04:09tax cuts a lot of individual tax cuts
- 00:04:11and adopted in
- 00:04:132017 those were adopted with sunsets
- 00:04:16they expire right why because in order
- 00:04:18to make a Reconciliation Bill work in
- 00:04:21order to make it quote
- 00:04:23reconcile uh it cannot lose money
- 00:04:25outside of the 10-year budget window
- 00:04:28okay and that means essentially if
- 00:04:29you're going to adopt a bunch of tax
- 00:04:30cuts you either have to adopt a bunch of
- 00:04:32pay fors or you have to have the tax
- 00:04:35cuts expire at some point and so where
- 00:04:37we are now is essentially the chickens
- 00:04:40have come home to Roose we're at year
- 00:04:42eight following the uh enactment of the
- 00:04:45tcja in 2017 and all of these individual
- 00:04:49tax cuts are going to expire at the end
- 00:04:51of this year so if Congress does nothing
- 00:04:55January 1st of
- 00:04:562026 every American essentially who
- 00:04:59every American who receives a W2 is
- 00:05:01going to see their paycheck is going to
- 00:05:04decrease because their withholding is
- 00:05:06going to go up as a result of the
- 00:05:08expiration of these tax cuts that is an
- 00:05:10action forcing event for the Congress so
- 00:05:12they're looking at this and saying our
- 00:05:14failure to act this year is going to
- 00:05:16cause every American to feel as though
- 00:05:18they've got a tax increase now it may
- 00:05:20very well be the case Kyle of course and
- 00:05:22you and I might talk about this from the
- 00:05:24standpoint of the budget well that's not
- 00:05:26really a tax increase because these are
- 00:05:28tax cuts that are scheduled to expire
- 00:05:30right so it's just the tax law unfolding
- 00:05:32the way it's going going back to what it
- 00:05:35was that's not a tax increase but of
- 00:05:37course that's not the way politicians
- 00:05:39you got to spin it the way you got spin
- 00:05:40it right and so that's that is that is
- 00:05:43ultimately what's forcing tax policy to
- 00:05:46you know be Revisited this year it's the
- 00:05:48individual tax cuts it's not anything on
- 00:05:49the corporate side but of course that
- 00:05:51doesn't mean there won't be things that
- 00:05:53creep into a tax bill this year that are
- 00:05:55on the corporate side as well and that's
- 00:05:56what a lot of our clients are focused on
- 00:05:58yeah no I mean I look I I think from a
- 00:06:00personal perspective I'm I'm looking at
- 00:06:02it and and anxious and interested for
- 00:06:04just the individual taxes um aspect of
- 00:06:07it um but but obviously it's definitely
- 00:06:09going to be a very busy year and I think
- 00:06:12as you alluded to you talked about the
- 00:06:13reconciliation process um and and
- 00:06:16obviously there's Whenever there you
- 00:06:17people are talking about it they're
- 00:06:19talking about you know all the
- 00:06:21requirements the how how you know the
- 00:06:23law Congress law how how everything is
- 00:06:26impacted you think about the bird rule
- 00:06:28all these different element
- 00:06:30filibustering right um which which I
- 00:06:32think you know I can tell you in just
- 00:06:34conversations with clients that it is
- 00:06:35something that they are confused on
- 00:06:37right they're not steeped in knowledge
- 00:06:38they're not paying attention like
- 00:06:40someone like you is so can you give our
- 00:06:42listeners a clearer picture of how the
- 00:06:45legislative process will unfold what are
- 00:06:47some of the key political and procedural
- 00:06:49Dynamics at play here yeah um and so
- 00:06:52first of all why reconciliation and the
- 00:06:55answer to to to that is actually a
- 00:06:56fairly simple one in order to advance
- 00:06:59most legislation through the US Senate
- 00:07:02you have to clear a 60 vote threshold
- 00:07:04right 60 votes it takes to move most
- 00:07:06bills through the US Senate um there are
- 00:07:09of course a few exceptions to that one
- 00:07:10of them that we have seen play out very
- 00:07:13publicly in recent years Senate
- 00:07:15confirmation of Judges Senate
- 00:07:17confirmation of cabinet appointees uh is
- 00:07:20now it didn't used to be done this way
- 00:07:22but is now done on a strict majority
- 00:07:24basis right and this is all a creature
- 00:07:26of Senate rules right so the Senate can
- 00:07:28change its own rules and over time they
- 00:07:30have changed these rules to make more
- 00:07:32things be done on a strict majority
- 00:07:34basis and that's the nuclear option
- 00:07:36right yes that's right SoCal the
- 00:07:37so-called nuclear option is nuking the
- 00:07:39filibuster getting rid of the filibuster
- 00:07:41for certain items um in the tax area
- 00:07:45they don't have to do that approach
- 00:07:47because they have the ability to use
- 00:07:49this other procedural option that's been
- 00:07:51around since the 1970s that's referred
- 00:07:54to as reconciliation and the process is
- 00:07:56incredibly cumbersome but the goal
- 00:08:00or the the benefit of the process is if
- 00:08:03you use the reconciliation process
- 00:08:05there's not a 60 vote requirement in the
- 00:08:07Senate so reconciliation is essentially
- 00:08:09a big pain in the neck for everybody
- 00:08:11involved the house gets no benefits from
- 00:08:13reconciliation the House of
- 00:08:15Representatives gets no benefits from
- 00:08:16this because the house is of course a
- 00:08:17strict majoritarian body right the
- 00:08:20Senate gets a huge if you will get out
- 00:08:22of jail free card which is you don't
- 00:08:25have to clear a 60 vote threshold and
- 00:08:27when the Senate of course right now is
- 00:08:29divided 53 Republicans 47 Democrats so
- 00:08:32given that y there's no real Prospect
- 00:08:34for getting for clearing a 60 vote
- 00:08:36threshold to advance any of President
- 00:08:39Trump's priorities in the tax area right
- 00:08:41so the only way to do this is through
- 00:08:43reconciliation but it's a pain in the
- 00:08:44neck why is it a pain in the neck well
- 00:08:46it's a pain in the neck because the
- 00:08:48starting point for doing any
- 00:08:49reconciliation bill is both the house
- 00:08:52and the Senate have to agree on a budget
- 00:08:54and the budget is essentially just a
- 00:08:56number I'm simplifying to a certain
- 00:08:58extent but just to you know lay it out
- 00:09:00to in its Essentials the budget is a
- 00:09:02number how much money are we going to
- 00:09:04raise how much additional deficit
- 00:09:06increase are we going to have over the
- 00:09:08next 10 years um the budget doesn't go
- 00:09:11to the White House for approval but both
- 00:09:13the house and the Senate have to reach
- 00:09:14agreement on a budget and again it's a
- 00:09:16number if I go back to 2017 the number
- 00:09:19that the house and the Senate agreed to
- 00:09:21in the tax when what became the tax cuts
- 00:09:23and jobs Act was we will advance a
- 00:09:26Reconciliation bill that can increase
- 00:09:29the deficit by $1.5 trillion do over the
- 00:09:31next 10 years can't increase it by one
- 00:09:33penny outside of that 10e period because
- 00:09:36then you would run a foul of the bird
- 00:09:37rule named for Senator bird and that
- 00:09:40would cause you to flunk the Recon flunk
- 00:09:42a point of order if you will in the
- 00:09:44Senate on the reconciliation bill so so
- 00:09:47you have to agree on a budget the budget
- 00:09:49is a number and then once you agree on
- 00:09:51that number and again in 2017 it was we
- 00:09:55can uh pass T tax legislation that will
- 00:09:57increase the deficit over the next 10
- 00:09:59years by up to $1.5 trillion once you
- 00:10:02agree on that number now you turn to the
- 00:10:04process of actually writing substantive
- 00:10:06legislation but again the math for a
- 00:10:09Reconciliation bill is completely
- 00:10:11unforgiving you're going to hit 1 and a
- 00:10:13half trillion you better hit one and a
- 00:10:15half trillion if you go over that you
- 00:10:17have a bill that no longer is in order
- 00:10:19from a Reconciliation perspective and so
- 00:10:22what we're seeing literally unfold right
- 00:10:24now Kyle is House Republicans and Senate
- 00:10:28Republicans both essentially trying to
- 00:10:30advance dueling versions of a budget
- 00:10:33well why is the budget so important well
- 00:10:35because both sides know once you decide
- 00:10:37on what that number is yeah now you have
- 00:10:40to squeeze all of your legislative
- 00:10:42priorities into that into that number
- 00:10:46and it becomes a real challenge because
- 00:10:48it means a lot has to get left on The
- 00:10:49Cutting Room floor this happened in 2017
- 00:10:52things don't get done that that parties
- 00:10:54really want that the political parties
- 00:10:56really want to get done for example in
- 00:10:582017 they really president Trump really
- 00:11:01wanted a 20 20% corporate tax rate why
- 00:11:04don't we have a 20% corporate tax rate
- 00:11:06now because of reconciliation they
- 00:11:08couldn't make the math work right and so
- 00:11:10we ended up with a 21% rate so that's
- 00:11:13why reconciliation is such a challenge
- 00:11:15is because you have you start with a
- 00:11:17budget and the budget really forces your
- 00:11:20hand to to make your taxing or lowering
- 00:11:23spending am I raising or lowering taxes
- 00:11:26and how do I yeah know that and and some
- 00:11:28member will say say something during the
- 00:11:30process I insist upon this or you won't
- 00:11:32get my vote for the bill well that's
- 00:11:34going to have an effect on some number
- 00:11:36and now you have to find some other
- 00:11:38number that has to move to fit within
- 00:11:41whatever the overall budget is and that
- 00:11:43forces a lot of frankly pretty
- 00:11:45unpalatable decisions often very late in
- 00:11:47the process of the bill getting put
- 00:11:49together in order to get a bill that
- 00:11:51satisfies the number it can get
- 00:11:54through we don't anticipate this having
- 00:11:57to this is going to be through
- 00:11:59reconciliation we'd don't anticipate
- 00:12:01that this is going to go down the path
- 00:12:03of get you know possibly getting 60 60
- 00:12:06votes or a filler Buster people
- 00:12:08shouldn't get excited it's likely
- 00:12:10something that that will get done and
- 00:12:11get done this year yeah I think it'll
- 00:12:13get done this year and I think it'll get
- 00:12:14done through
- 00:12:15reconciliation the only way that doesn't
- 00:12:17happen which would be catastrophic
- 00:12:18frankly for uh the Republicans and
- 00:12:20president Trump is they are just utterly
- 00:12:22and completely unable to come to
- 00:12:24agreement on anything within their own
- 00:12:25party and then in that case you'd have
- 00:12:27something where probably like in
- 00:12:29December Republicans would go to
- 00:12:31Democrats and say we can't make this
- 00:12:34work on our own we need your help to
- 00:12:36come up with some sort of a bipartisan
- 00:12:37package I think the odds of that
- 00:12:39happening are extremely low just I mean
- 00:12:42so a repe a repeat of 2017 you you think
- 00:12:45is Extreme is is unlikely I guess that
- 00:12:48was not fun to deal with it was it was
- 00:12:50pretty ugly I think we you know a lot of
- 00:12:53times these reconciliation bills have
- 00:12:54near-death experiences uh and I wouldn't
- 00:12:56be surprised if we see a few of those
- 00:12:58right right but would be surprised if we
- 00:13:00get to you know the end of this year and
- 00:13:03the Republicans essentially throw up
- 00:13:05their hands and say to president Trump
- 00:13:08we just can't we can't get agreement
- 00:13:09even even amongst ourselves I don't
- 00:13:11think that's likely to happen
- 00:13:13interesting well look I think that that
- 00:13:15certainly sets the stage so so let's
- 00:13:17dive into maybe what you expect or what
- 00:13:20we expect to see uh in the tax bill what
- 00:13:24are some of the key Provisions that are
- 00:13:25being kind of you know discussed and
- 00:13:28imagine you know you with your history
- 00:13:29and prior experience I'm sure people
- 00:13:32reach out to you with ideas and thoughts
- 00:13:34and you know what challenges did the
- 00:13:35lawmakers face here and navigating some
- 00:13:37of these issues through uh to a final
- 00:13:39bill yeah so I think you know the
- 00:13:41starting point of course for a lot of
- 00:13:43this discussion is going to be well what
- 00:13:45did President Trump campaign on right
- 00:13:48and president Trump being president
- 00:13:50Trump he campaigned on a lot of things
- 00:13:51he talked about a lot of things on the
- 00:13:52campaign Trail um that's obviously not
- 00:13:55atypical for politicians running for
- 00:13:57president they you know want to talk to
- 00:13:59the voters about lots of different ideas
- 00:14:01that they have um but even since his
- 00:14:03election indeed even as recently as last
- 00:14:05week he has gone back to some of the
- 00:14:08themes that he campaigned on and has
- 00:14:09talked about wanting to see changes to
- 00:14:12the tax law that are consistent with
- 00:14:13that so he has talked about reducing or
- 00:14:15eliminating the tax on tipped income
- 00:14:18he's talked about reducing tax on
- 00:14:20overtime pay he's talked about reducing
- 00:14:21tax on Social Security benefits on the
- 00:14:24corporate side he's talked about maybe
- 00:14:26we should have a reduced tax rate for
- 00:14:29domestic manufacturing uh because of
- 00:14:31course one of his you know passions has
- 00:14:33been the idea of trying to reinvigorate
- 00:14:35Manufacturing in the United States
- 00:14:37that's obviously a lot of what his trade
- 00:14:38policy is focused on as well so I think
- 00:14:41that's a good place to start for things
- 00:14:44that they're going to have to consider
- 00:14:46now again this has to be done through a
- 00:14:48Reconciliation bill so if you're going
- 00:14:49to do something with respect to the
- 00:14:51taxation of tipped income reducing taxes
- 00:14:54on tips are you going to pay for that in
- 00:14:56some way or you going to increase the
- 00:14:57deficit to finance that is that the
- 00:14:59approach that you're going to take
- 00:15:01what's that going to look like we're
- 00:15:02going to have to wait and see obviously
- 00:15:04how this process plays out over the
- 00:15:06course of the year I think on the
- 00:15:08corporate side one of the most common
- 00:15:10questions I get is How likely is it that
- 00:15:11the corporate tax rate goes up and I
- 00:15:13think it's very unlikely the corporate
- 00:15:15tax rate goes up that's the good news
- 00:15:17the not so good news is the idea of pay
- 00:15:20fors from the corporate sector we cannot
- 00:15:23take our eye off the ball on those so
- 00:15:25one of the things that we've been
- 00:15:26hearing about recently is well in
- 00:15:292017 the Congress made the decision to
- 00:15:32put a cap on the deductibility of state
- 00:15:34and local taxes now for folks who live
- 00:15:36in high tax States they're all very
- 00:15:37familiar with this right and not happy
- 00:15:40about it exactly they did not Congress
- 00:15:43did not do that with with respect to
- 00:15:45corporate state and local taxes it was
- 00:15:47only done on the individual side you can
- 00:15:49argue that that was the right policy
- 00:15:51choice to have made because of course
- 00:15:53corporate taxes are a business expens of
- 00:15:55Corporations so does it really make
- 00:15:57sense to deny a deduction to a
- 00:15:58corporation for anary bu expense you can
- 00:16:01make the argument that individual taxes
- 00:16:02are different the reality is in 2017
- 00:16:05they probably concluded they didn't need
- 00:16:06the money right and it wasn't it wasn't
- 00:16:08a very desirable option in 2017 and they
- 00:16:12didn't need it to make the math work for
- 00:16:14reconciliation but it has reemerged as
- 00:16:16something that's being talked about
- 00:16:18right now so now for again for our
- 00:16:20clients in the corporate space you'd say
- 00:16:22well good news the corporate tax rate we
- 00:16:25think is very unlikely to go up so it's
- 00:16:26going to be at 21% but if they take away
- 00:16:30the deductibility for state and local
- 00:16:32taxes and that amounts to basically the
- 00:16:34equivalent of a 2 percentage Point
- 00:16:36increase in your tax rate in your
- 00:16:38corporate tax rate well that's not a
- 00:16:40great answer right so good news is the
- 00:16:42corporate rate's 21 the bad news is your
- 00:16:45ETR just went up by two percentage
- 00:16:47points anyway because they took away a
- 00:16:49deduction that you were relying on so
- 00:16:51these are some of the things we're going
- 00:16:52to have to watch for Kyle is very much
- 00:16:54in the corporate space the the
- 00:16:57Temptation on the part of politicians to
- 00:16:59essentially where every option is bad
- 00:17:02maybe some options as they see it are
- 00:17:04less bad and one of them might be
- 00:17:06raising taxes on what are perceived to
- 00:17:08be very large very profitable
- 00:17:11corporations is that considered an
- 00:17:12easier place to go right the concern of
- 00:17:14course that a lot of companies will have
- 00:17:16is well to the extent that makes it
- 00:17:18harder for me to expand my facilities to
- 00:17:22invest in new product to hire more
- 00:17:24employees you are having those
- 00:17:27Downstream effects in the economy
- 00:17:29Senator or Congressman you just may not
- 00:17:31necessarily see it as directly but you
- 00:17:33are having those Downstream effects in
- 00:17:35the economy and so maybe that's not the
- 00:17:37the best place to go I think the the
- 00:17:39other thing that a lot of um if you look
- 00:17:42historically a lot of times where
- 00:17:44politicians will look for Revenue in the
- 00:17:47corporate space is international so the
- 00:17:50foreign activities of us headquartered
- 00:17:53companies because of course on the
- 00:17:55surface that looks as a relative matter
- 00:17:57like maybe it's a little bit easier I'm
- 00:17:59not raising taxes on anything in the
- 00:18:00United States I'm raising taxes on
- 00:18:03things happening outside the United
- 00:18:04States and surely that won't have a
- 00:18:06negative effect on my constituents but
- 00:18:08here again the problem is if what you're
- 00:18:11talking about here is making it harder
- 00:18:13for companies to compete in foreign
- 00:18:15markets you know I used to work for a
- 00:18:17company and one of the stories that I
- 00:18:19used to tell I was based at at a
- 00:18:21facility in Upstate New York 80% of the
- 00:18:24product that we produced was exported
- 00:18:26yeah so if my company could not compete
- 00:18:30in foreign markets and we couldn't sell
- 00:18:32that product in foreign markets all
- 00:18:34those jobs in Upstate New York are at
- 00:18:36risk y making politicians understand
- 00:18:39that point it's not to say that they're
- 00:18:41unwilling to consider it it's just not
- 00:18:42necessarily an intuitive point for them
- 00:18:45yeah and so trying to get that message
- 00:18:46across I think is one of the things that
- 00:18:48people will have as a challenge this
- 00:18:50year is trying to help uh Pol policy
- 00:18:53makers understand maybe that looks like
- 00:18:55an easier way to close the gap that
- 00:18:58dealing with here in your reconciliation
- 00:19:00bill but let me tell you why that's
- 00:19:01maybe not as good of an idea as you
- 00:19:03might think so so busy busy times in
- 00:19:05Washington right with the lobbyist I'm
- 00:19:07sure like this is yes probably um the
- 00:19:10one of the a crazier probably never seen
- 00:19:12a crazier time at least with respect to
- 00:19:14tax I suspect that's probably true yes
- 00:19:17yeah it's very interesting I guess I
- 00:19:18guess one question for you that I'm just
- 00:19:20curious whether you get this this
- 00:19:21question um from clients or or others
- 00:19:24just you know how how would assuming
- 00:19:27these tariffs stay in place um and and
- 00:19:31they're not you know simply a
- 00:19:32negotiating foyer or whatever it's
- 00:19:34assuming they stay in place how will
- 00:19:36those be considered will they be part of
- 00:19:38it's a great question Kyle and it's so
- 00:19:41there's a there's an there's an sort of
- 00:19:43official answer an official budget
- 00:19:44scorekeeping answer and then there's
- 00:19:46sort of a maybe the way politicians
- 00:19:48might think about an answer the official
- 00:19:50budget scorekeeping answer is the only
- 00:19:52things that get taken into account in a
- 00:19:54Reconciliation Bill are things that are
- 00:19:56done via congressional action so things
- 00:19:58that are done legislatively so when the
- 00:20:01president uses his Article 2 authority
- 00:20:04to impose tariffs that's not via
- 00:20:06legislation or it's an act of the
- 00:20:08executive perhaps authorized by
- 00:20:10legislation but separate from any
- 00:20:12legislation so it wouldn't formally be
- 00:20:14taken into account in the budget but it
- 00:20:18wouldn't be the first time if
- 00:20:20politicians were sort of look at this if
- 00:20:21members of Congress looked at this and
- 00:20:23said look we may not be able to
- 00:20:25officially count this revenue for
- 00:20:27purposes of our our reconciliation
- 00:20:29instruction in other words maybe the
- 00:20:31reconcil I I'll go back to use 2017 as
- 00:20:34an example maybe the reconciliation
- 00:20:35instruction says we're going to increase
- 00:20:37the deficit by $1.5 trillion doar but
- 00:20:41the reality is there's going to be a
- 00:20:42trillion dollars worth of tariff Revenue
- 00:20:44that we expect to come in and even
- 00:20:46though that won't count for purposes of
- 00:20:49the math for reconciliation exactly I as
- 00:20:51a politician
- 00:20:53I that revenue is going to be there and
- 00:20:55that should be counted as sort of a
- 00:20:57moral offset if you will you know the
- 00:21:00cost of the reconciliation bill so
- 00:21:02there's an official answer and then
- 00:21:04there is how how might policy makers try
- 00:21:07to incorporate the Tariff discussion
- 00:21:09into the way the bill gets brought
- 00:21:11forward so I wanted to also talk about
- 00:21:13something we haven't touched on yet and
- 00:21:15and given president Trump's recent
- 00:21:17statements about scaling back climate
- 00:21:19initiatives right um how might this
- 00:21:21affect the environmental credits
- 00:21:22established under the
- 00:21:24IRA just that's in the top top of my
- 00:21:27mind I know a lot of interested in like
- 00:21:29what's this going to look like a very
- 00:21:30common question we're getting from a lot
- 00:21:32of companies is what's going to be the
- 00:21:35fate of the inflation reduction act
- 00:21:37incentives these green energy credits
- 00:21:38that were adopted in
- 00:21:402022 and one of the things that's most
- 00:21:42interesting about that is for a lot of
- 00:21:44companies um they've essentially
- 00:21:46committed significant Capital
- 00:21:48Investments to uh you know as a result
- 00:21:50of these credits coming into place and
- 00:21:52so one of the first questions that they
- 00:21:53are bringing forward to policy makers is
- 00:21:56you know is it appropriate for you or or
- 00:21:58can we possibly preserve the credits
- 00:22:01that are here because we've made
- 00:22:03commitments on the basis of them and you
- 00:22:05know we don't think it's appropriate to
- 00:22:07to yank those from us essentially as we
- 00:22:08sit there today um I think the more the
- 00:22:11most likely outcome with one thing
- 00:22:13that's very clear to say is they're
- 00:22:14going to get a close look right the the
- 00:22:16incentives that were adopted in 2020
- 00:22:18going get a very very close look I
- 00:22:20suspect some of them are more vulnerable
- 00:22:22than others I think some of the electric
- 00:22:24vehicle um incentives are probably more
- 00:22:26vulnerable some of the others you know
- 00:22:28Carbon sequestration or things like that
- 00:22:30maybe a little bit less vulnerable um
- 00:22:33speaker Johnson who of course the
- 00:22:35Speaker of the House of Representatives
- 00:22:37even before the election he had said you
- 00:22:39know we don't we expect to take a
- 00:22:41scalpel to those incentives not a
- 00:22:42sledgehammer I think was the expression
- 00:22:44that he used so he made it clear then
- 00:22:46that he didn't expect these things to
- 00:22:48Disappear Completely but that he did
- 00:22:49expect them to to get a close look I
- 00:22:52think one of the things that's
- 00:22:53interesting about that is where a lot of
- 00:22:55this investment is happening as a result
- 00:22:57of the inflation uction act incentives
- 00:23:00it's in States like North Dakota South
- 00:23:02Dakota Oklahoma Texas Louisiana states
- 00:23:05that are pretty heavily represented by
- 00:23:07Republicans well Republican policy
- 00:23:09makers like jobs in their state and
- 00:23:11their District too right and so so
- 00:23:13there's an aspect of that that's also
- 00:23:15playing into and and so I think they're
- 00:23:17going to have to kind of work through
- 00:23:18all of that uh and figure out what is
- 00:23:21going to be a landing place on this but
- 00:23:22I I think the answer is somewhere in
- 00:23:24between a free pass and those things
- 00:23:28going think that makes sense yeah and I
- 00:23:30think that's where we're likely to land
- 00:23:31yeah so so another topic and and we
- 00:23:33talked a little bit about this just kind
- 00:23:34of the global impacts International so
- 00:23:37you know obviously the the last few
- 00:23:38years Hot Topic um for a lot of
- 00:23:41companies and it's pillar two it's this
- 00:23:43Global minimum tax so Trump has said
- 00:23:45that the US will not participate in it
- 00:23:47yes um how might this work how might it
- 00:23:50affect international relations obviously
- 00:23:52I'm not sure that's a top of concern of
- 00:23:55his right now um and but and how does
- 00:23:57that impact domestic tax policy yeah I
- 00:23:59so it's it's a really fascinating
- 00:24:01Dynamic and you know we've sort of been
- 00:24:03seeing this this almost like a little
- 00:24:05bit of a slow motion train wreck have
- 00:24:07we've been watching this happen um
- 00:24:09because even before the Republicans had
- 00:24:11complete control uh obviously as a
- 00:24:14result of the November elections even
- 00:24:15before it was clear president Trump was
- 00:24:17going to get elected again in November
- 00:24:19of 24 we saw Republicans in the Congress
- 00:24:22really getting increasingly agitated
- 00:24:25about what they saw um at as an
- 00:24:28infringement upon their sovereignty as
- 00:24:31the body that makes the tax law for the
- 00:24:33United States so they really looked at
- 00:24:35the oecd's pillar two project which to
- 00:24:38give the take a step back for the
- 00:24:39listeners pillar two is this 15% minimum
- 00:24:42tax that's to be applied on a company's
- 00:24:45income earned in every country all
- 00:24:47around the world so any pockets of low
- 00:24:49tax any income anywhere in around the
- 00:24:51world are supposed to be subject to a
- 00:24:5315% rate of Taxation well for a lot of
- 00:24:56companies what what ESS they were going
- 00:24:59into members of Congress and describing
- 00:25:01was a phenomenon where hey I'm investing
- 00:25:03heavily in the United States I'm taking
- 00:25:06accelerated depreciation on new
- 00:25:08investment in the United States I'm
- 00:25:09earning I'm I'm doing a lot of research
- 00:25:11in the United States and qualifying for
- 00:25:13research credits I'm going to be below
- 00:25:1515% in the United States as a result of
- 00:25:18that not because I'm engaged in some
- 00:25:20sort of Nefarious tax planning but
- 00:25:22because I'm doing what you the Congress
- 00:25:23asked me to do um and I'm seeking to to
- 00:25:27take the benefits that are obviously
- 00:25:28legally entitled to take um and members
- 00:25:31of Congress in both parties particularly
- 00:25:33Republicans but in both parties reacted
- 00:25:35to that not very well as you might
- 00:25:37imagine sort of wait a minute this this
- 00:25:39this doesn't sound right to us that that
- 00:25:41an international organization is
- 00:25:43essentially telling the United States
- 00:25:45what kinds of credits and incentives we
- 00:25:47can offer um and so that again I
- 00:25:50described sort of a slow motion train
- 00:25:52wreck we've been watching this come for
- 00:25:54a little while after uh president Trump
- 00:25:57was elected in November and it was clear
- 00:25:59that Republicans were going to have the
- 00:26:00house and the Senate we certainly
- 00:26:02expected there to be some I'm going to
- 00:26:05call it muscular response yeah we didn't
- 00:26:07expect I like I like that musular
- 00:26:09response okay uh we didn't expect
- 00:26:12however on the very first day of the
- 00:26:14Trump Administration two executive
- 00:26:17orders that specifically referred to
- 00:26:20International tax initiatives the oecd
- 00:26:22and essentially suggested that the
- 00:26:24United States Was preparing to retaliate
- 00:26:26against countries that were we're going
- 00:26:28to adopt these measures which again were
- 00:26:30viewed as infringing on our sovereignty
- 00:26:32so the Trump Administration right out of
- 00:26:35the gate fired its opening Salvo which
- 00:26:38is to your point Kyle not only are we
- 00:26:40not participating in this but we intend
- 00:26:42to retaliate against other countries
- 00:26:44that try and infringe upon our
- 00:26:46sovereignty now the other real
- 00:26:49protagonist in this in this situation
- 00:26:51the other real party in interest is
- 00:26:52really Europe it's the European Union
- 00:26:54because members of the EU are obliged
- 00:26:58as a result of an EU directive that was
- 00:27:00adopted two years ago to implement
- 00:27:03pillar two in their National laws so
- 00:27:05here you go right you have the United
- 00:27:07States in the former Administration
- 00:27:09saying no can do we will not permit this
- 00:27:12and we'll retaliate and the European
- 00:27:13Union countries saying we don't have any
- 00:27:16choice but to do this because we're
- 00:27:17obligated under EU law to proceed with
- 00:27:19this this is clearly setting up some
- 00:27:21form of discussions that have to take
- 00:27:23place but again we don't have a lot of
- 00:27:25answers right now to how this can happen
- 00:27:27and until we get in place in the
- 00:27:29treasury Department right we don't even
- 00:27:31have a deputy secretary in treasury yet
- 00:27:32let alone an assistant secretary for tax
- 00:27:34policy or some of these other people so
- 00:27:36we're going to have to wait a little
- 00:27:38while to see how this plays out but it's
- 00:27:40clear that the the White House has
- 00:27:42indicated right out of the gate things
- 00:27:44have got to change and they've got to
- 00:27:45change in a significant way Europe's
- 00:27:48response to that is we're kind of jammed
- 00:27:51with what we right what we have to do so
- 00:27:54there's going to have to be some form of
- 00:27:56discussion and accommodation here I
- 00:27:58think it's going to take a while I mean
- 00:27:59we I don't expect this to resolve itself
- 00:28:01in the first half of this year I think
- 00:28:03it'll linger through most of the year my
- 00:28:06you know it could easily linger even
- 00:28:08beyond the end of this year there's
- 00:28:09nothing that says it has to be resolved
- 00:28:12um but I I expect the United States is
- 00:28:14going to continue to ratchet up the
- 00:28:15pressure uh on Europe to essentially say
- 00:28:18we need an outcome that's acceptable to
- 00:28:19us and and doesn't result in an
- 00:28:21infringement of our sovereignty yeah so
- 00:28:23no look I think that super super
- 00:28:25interesting and and one I mean obviously
- 00:28:27it does sound like a a train wreck um a
- 00:28:30lot certainly to watch here um and it
- 00:28:33certainly highlights you know just the
- 00:28:35challenges that this one of the things
- 00:28:37that you and I were talking about prior
- 00:28:38to to to us you know hitting record we
- 00:28:40were talking about people aren't in
- 00:28:41place yet right and that's the other
- 00:28:43piece that's like this is tough to
- 00:28:45predict and and people ask me a lot like
- 00:28:48what what do I think is going to happen
- 00:28:49at the SEC we you know the pcob and it's
- 00:28:52like you can't predict because these
- 00:28:53people are not in those positions yet
- 00:28:56they have not appointed their senior
- 00:28:57leaders and
- 00:29:01time to figure out kind of what
- 00:29:04theth that's Ahad so so as we wrap up
- 00:29:07today's discussion um I I always I
- 00:29:09always like that that we end by kind of
- 00:29:11giving our listeners some advice on on
- 00:29:13really how to to navigate um and moving
- 00:29:15ahead with with all of this that's going
- 00:29:17on and and maybe there's not a lot of
- 00:29:19strategies or or best practices but what
- 00:29:21would you recommend kind of being in
- 00:29:23their shoes in the past um you know kind
- 00:29:25of being at a lot of different angles
- 00:29:27here you done it all in in this space
- 00:29:30how can companies effectively navigate
- 00:29:32the now and plan yeah so I think you
- 00:29:36know as a former tax director one of the
- 00:29:39things that you never wanted I never
- 00:29:41wanted as a tax director was my CFO knew
- 00:29:44more about a topic than I did or I was
- 00:29:46caught flat-footed so I always tried to
- 00:29:49sort of think through a range of
- 00:29:50potential scenario outcomes and
- 00:29:52basically try to model them out right
- 00:29:54and not to say that any one of them is
- 00:29:55going to be correct but I think I think
- 00:29:58most of the folks in the world of
- 00:29:59Finance in in companies they're very
- 00:30:01quantitative people that's why they're
- 00:30:02in finance right uh and so trying to
- 00:30:05give people a range of potential
- 00:30:07outcomes potential scenarios whether
- 00:30:08you're talking about potential trade
- 00:30:10policy issues and tariffs or you're
- 00:30:12talking about you know potential
- 00:30:13retaliation under pillar two effects of
- 00:30:16your ETR if there's a restriction on the
- 00:30:19deductibility of state and local taxes
- 00:30:21all of these things lend themselves to
- 00:30:24try and get some numbers around this so
- 00:30:26that when the conversation happens with
- 00:30:28Senior Management you're in a good
- 00:30:29position to say here's what I think the
- 00:30:32range is and frankly if you're a CFO I'd
- 00:30:34be saying to my tax director I'm hearing
- 00:30:36about all these things that are
- 00:30:37happening but I have no idea how to talk
- 00:30:39to investors about this I you need to
- 00:30:41give me something that I can you know
- 00:30:44some numerical range that I can speak to
- 00:30:46so I think that's the best advice that I
- 00:30:48can give right now I love it you know I
- 00:30:50love it I and I think the other the
- 00:30:51other thing is especially you know
- 00:30:52thinking about just you know public
- 00:30:54companies right is you know the the
- 00:30:56obviously the influence of the board
- 00:30:58right the audit committee they're
- 00:30:59they're going to be asking these
- 00:31:00questions as well um and and as you said
- 00:31:03not only are in investors going to want
- 00:31:04to know the story um the expectation of
- 00:31:07the SEC and and of course people that
- 00:31:09are you know the actual shareholders
- 00:31:11they they want to read they want to know
- 00:31:13and so they're going to expect
- 00:31:14disclosures as well right what are the
- 00:31:15risk here what are things that that you
- 00:31:17could have a significant impact so a lot
- 00:31:19of great stuff I really appreciate you
- 00:31:21taking the time I know you're a busy man
- 00:31:23these days um and expect to get busier
- 00:31:26but just want to thank you for for
- 00:31:27spending the time with us it was a
- 00:31:28delight really appreciate the
- 00:31:29opportunity thank
- 00:31:31you that's our show for today tune in
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