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Hello everyone, welcome to Bald Guy
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Money. And on September 8th of last
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year, I warned you all that there was
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limited time to prepare yourselves for
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the next move up in precious metals,
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citing a similar warning I had given on
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the channel July 9th, 2023 when I said I
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was selling my stocks and running to
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gold. Now, I don't make these types of
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videos often, and I don't make these
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claims lightly, but I feel the need to
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do this this week because not everybody
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has treated these warnings seriously in
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the past. And it is becoming clear to me
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that a growing number of people don't
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really understand what is happening on
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the market right now. many of whom and
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maybe some of you watching are in this
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group started investing in 2020 or 2021
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and think that the bad news we are
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seeing in the economic data we're
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getting out right now is great and that
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the market is going to be saved by it
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because the Federal Reserve will not
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allow markets to crash. So buy up stocks
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now because they're going to the moon.
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Now, as much as I am open to hearing
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differing opinions on this topic, the
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fact is, if you've been investing since
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2021, you have 17 years less experience
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in investing than I do and 79 years less
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experience than Warren Buffett, who via
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his company Berkshire Hathway has been
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selling stocks since the second quarter
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of 2024. And although I don't agree with
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Mr. Buffett on some topics, specifically
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the topic of gold. And I admit he has
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been the longtime beneficiary of
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information people like us do not have
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access to. And yes, that means insider
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information. It is clear we agree on a
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couple fundamental things. And I don't
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think his retirement from Berkshire
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Hathway, which he announced yesterday,
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is just random timing. So in this video
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I want to cover three very important
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topics starting with the major warning
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signs we are seeing from investment
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world insiders when it comes to the
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stock market and the health of the US
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dollar. Once that's covered, I want to
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explain why I think we may only have
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four months until we see the next big
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move up for gold and possibly a breakout
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for silver above $35 an ounce. And we're
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going to review affordability figures in
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that section of the video. So for those
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of you who like those stats, I will
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cover them there. And we'll finish this
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video with the topic of revaluation and
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what role it plays in these assumptions
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as well as Basil 3, which comes into
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effect in July of this year in the
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United States and how it may be driving
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rumors of a US Independence Day gold
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revaluation. So be sure to watch to the
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end of this video for that. Now, just
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before we dive in, please remember to
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check out www.summitmetals.com
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summitals.com to join the growing number
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of my viewers who have been telling me
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in the comments section of my videos
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that they have become satisfied
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customers of Summit Metals. And if
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you're new to Summit, remember to take
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advantage of the 5 o of silver at spot
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deal when you use code new customer at
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checkout. The link to this deal is in
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the video description below. Okay, so
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jumping in. What are insiders telling us
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about the market? Well, as I've already
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said, I don't think Warren Buffett's
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retirement timing was purely
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coincidence. He's been selling stocks
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with Berkshire Hathaway for the past
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year. A clear indication that he thinks
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the S&P 500 is overpriced. And
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yesterday, along with his retirement
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announcement, he dropped a currency
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bombshell, admitting that he isn't as
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confident in the US dollar as he once
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was, hinting at his expectation that
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more devaluation is on the way. And
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Buffett isn't alone in this gloomy
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outlook. Insider stock transactions of
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$100,000 and above. So here we're
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talking about big transactions continue
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to favor the sell side. And the largest
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stock purchases we've seen recently are
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into diversified dividend funds or bond
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funds which are clearly defensive plays
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and show us that big money, smart money,
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whatever you want to call it money is
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not buying this dip. In fact, if we look
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at some of the details of the most
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transacted stocks and highest trade
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values of the last 60 days, you can see
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that some of the names that are being
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bought up on the market right now by
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regular retail investors are being
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dumped by insiders, including Meta
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Facebook stock, which has been sold 16
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times by insiders in the last 60 days
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with no buys made, as well as Walmart,
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which is up 12% over the last month,
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even though insiders have sold nearly
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$530 million worth of Walmart stock. So,
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if you don't get what's happening yet,
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let me put this in the simplest terms
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possible. This is your December 2021
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moment. The big guys are taking their
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chips off the table because they know
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the stock market isn't like gold and
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that rates coming down aren't a saving
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grace that immediately propel it to new
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highs, which since 2000 has been the
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case with gold, as I covered here last
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week and in some other recent videos,
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the stock market, and we'll use the S&P
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500 as our benchmark, usually
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experiences a prolonged flush out, a
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bare market following rate cuts. We saw
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it in 2000 with the.com bubble. We saw
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it in 2008 with the financial crisis.
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And the example I use is interest rate
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cuts are like a parachute. And for gold,
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that parachute works almost instantly.
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But for stocks, it doesn't start to work
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until you get close to the ground. And
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although it is true that the 2020 crash
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was short-lived and this is the example
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many newer investors cite as being their
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reason for calling the bottom in the
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stock market right now. The fact is that
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personal savings rates were high in 2020
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and 2021 because for the first time
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ever, most of the world was told to stay
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in their homes and their gas money and
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their restaurant money and their other
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disposable income found its way into the
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stock market via mobile apps like e Toro
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and Robin Hood. But as you can see in
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this data here, the personal savings
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rate is below 4% in the USA today. And
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that's versus 32% at the high in 2020
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and 26% at the high in 2021. This is not
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the same situation. And with insiders
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positioning themselves for safety, which
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includes gold's major runup in price
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this year, and Warren Buffett saying
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yesterday that the volatility we've seen
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over the past 30 to 45 days is nothing.
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It tells me that we're only at the start
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of something bigger, which is also
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confirmed by the negative GDP read we
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saw in the United States, which was
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released this past week for a period
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that doesn't fully factor in the most
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recent global economic turbulence, the
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lasting impact of long overdue US
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government layoffs, which were skewing
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numbers to the upside in 2024, or recent
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layoffs in the trucking and shipping
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sectors, which in general are a strong
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sign of economic slowdown. Now, I've
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spoken about metals becoming
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unaffordable for the average person a
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few times here on the channel, and
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according to these latest figures, which
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I updated just today, that level of
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unaffordability hasn't changed, with the
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median US household only able to save
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about 1 ounce of gold per year, which is
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down from 6.6 6 ounces in 1990 and down
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from 2.1 O in 2011 when we were still
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reeling from the consequences of the
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global financial crisis and we
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experienced the last blowoff top for
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precious metals. And when we look at
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silver, those numbers haven't changed
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much with the median US household able
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to save about 98 ounces of silver per
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year as of today's numbers, which is
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barely anything compared to the more
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than 500 ounces they were able to save
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in 1990. and almost equal to what they
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could save in 2011 when the average
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silver price was at a record high. And
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this is precisely why I am warning
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everyone right now in this video because
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we've only gotten a taste of lower
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interest rates and the accompanying
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weaker dollar that comes with lower
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interest rates. But with the market now
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expecting to see 3 to four US interest
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rate cuts in 2025, which is up versus
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one or two where we started the year,
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it's becoming clear that the script has
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changed. And what looks like minor
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economic weakness today can become an
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emergency very quickly, warranting more
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cuts, just as we saw earlier in the week
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when the odds for rate cuts spiked with
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the bad GDP data, but then came back
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down again with the latest US jobs
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report, which said the US added 177,000
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jobs in April, with the market totally
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ignoring the downward revision of 58,000
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jobs that were reported but never
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existed. in the months of February and
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March. And as that plays out, as I've
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warned before, gold and silver will move
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in the opposite direction of a weakening
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dollar, just as we've seen recently. And
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the dollar has a lot of room to move
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down, making the reality we've seen in
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other parts of the world, which is
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wildly high gold prices and new record
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nominal high prices for silver even
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higher than the 2011 blowoff top price,
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a US dollar reality. So with us entering
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a traditionally slower period for
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precious metals due to lower demand from
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markets like India and China where
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wedding and festival seasons drive
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purchases and other periods as well as
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reduced investor activity known as the
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summer doldrums. I see the next four
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months as opportunity for gold and
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silver stackers. A period where, as you
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can see on the chart here, showing the
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price seasonality for silver from 2022
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to 2025 may create buying opportunities
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or at least result in prolonged price
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consolidation at current levels,
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allowing you to stock up if you feel
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like you're falling behind. But why I
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say you have four months and suggest to
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use them wisely is because that is the
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period of time leading up to September,
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which has historically been a very good
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month for gold. as you can see in the
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image here. But more importantly,
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September 2025 will also mark the
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one-year anniversary of the Federal
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Reserve's first rate cuts, opening the
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door to more cuts, maybe even at a
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faster pace, depending on what GDP and
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unemployment figures show. And I have no
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reason to be optimistic on those figures
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as things stand today. So before we move
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on to the July revaluation topic, just
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know that you have at least May and
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June, if not July and August, to build
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your position in precious metals and use
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that time wisely if that is, of course,
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in line with your strategy because I
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expect the last 3 months of 2025 to be
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big for gold and silver, especially as
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rates start to come down in line with
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market expectations, including a move to
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$40 per ounce for silver. Okay, so with
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that covered, it's now time to move on
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to this video's viewer question. And
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please remember, I pick one viewer
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question to appear in every single video
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that I do. Don't be shy. Submit your
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questions in the comments section of my
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videos, and I may pick your question to
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appear in my next video. And this week's
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question comes from bookmarked 9771. And
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here she asked, "When do I think a gold
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revaluation will take place? and to what
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level do I think gold will be revalued
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to? And here she also mentioned July
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4th, US Independence Day, as being a
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possible timing for that gold
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revaluation announcement. So, let me
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start this off by saying that I think a
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revaluation of gold is going to happen.
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And it's not going to be because
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politicians have a sudden realization
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that gold is money. They're not going to
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be walking around quoting JP Morgan
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saying, "Gold is money. Everything else
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is credit." That's not why. The real
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reason is because their appetite for
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spending is growing. And that is
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highlighted by this article here that
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covers the European Commission's
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exploration of ways to channel 10
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trillion in what they call unused
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savings into funding defense and economy
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boosting activities. Because of course,
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if you don't trust the government enough
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to buy their bonds and lend them money
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on your own valition, on your own free
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will, well, it seems they're determined
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to get their hands on that money
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anyways. Now, as I touched on in a March
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video, revaluing gold reserves would be
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a way for governments, including the US
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government, to issue special gold
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redeemable bonds. Meaning, if the
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government can't pay you back with
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dollars they can just print, then you
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get gold in exchange. And it sounds
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silly, but by issuing these gold back
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bonds, not only will it unlock a new
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source of money for governments, but it
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will also decrease the interest rate
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they pay borrowers because the debt has
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the gold backing it. So, it's deemed
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safer by the market. And considering the
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fact that US interest payments on the
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national debt are already above $1
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trillion, that's something the United
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States and other countries want to tap
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into. Now, what about that July date?
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Could we see it happen that soon? Well,
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as many of you know, Basil 3's
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reclassification of physical gold as a
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tier 1 asset starts on July 1st, 2025 in
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the United States. And it has the
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potential to increase demand for
00:13:42
physical gold beyond what we've seen so
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far this year, which would drive prices
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up further as banks prioritize physical
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gold over paper gold for regulatory
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compliance purposes. And this story is
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completely true. It's not a conspiracy
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theory. It's not bad information like
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I've said in the past that other
00:14:01
channels have been spreading about the
00:14:02
BRICS unit currency which has been
00:14:04
debunked two years in a row now or Saudi
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Arabia totally turning its back to the
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United States. Basil 3 is a fact. Now
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could we end up seeing a major
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institutional level buy the rumor sell
00:14:18
the news event in July? I don't rule it
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out considering the fact that gold
00:14:22
prices have already risen more than 23%
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in 2025. Some speculative profit taking
00:14:29
may occur once Basil 3 is implemented.
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So be aware of that. And for that
00:14:34
reason, I think a gold revaluation will
00:14:37
likely take place after Basil 3 is
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completely implemented. and that the
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soonest we may see any form of a gold
00:14:45
revaluation once again triggered by the
00:14:48
introduction of gold back bonds would be
00:14:51
in 2026 once the gold market has
00:14:54
stabilized a bit at which point I think
00:14:56
we will see a markto-market model
00:14:59
implemented likely rounding up to the
00:15:02
closest $100 price point as the value of
00:15:05
gold backing these potential gold back
00:15:08
bonds putting a solid price floor under
00:15:10
that number which if my projections from
00:15:13
early 2024 come true, and please note
00:15:16
that so far gold has exceeded those
00:15:18
expectations in 2025, it would put us
00:15:21
very close to the $4,000 per ounce price
00:15:25
for gold, as my estimate is closer to
00:15:28
3,800 considering the price projections
00:15:31
you see on the screen, and would only
00:15:33
further justify central bank gold
00:15:35
buying, solidifying it as a long-term
00:15:38
trend, as it would provide the central
00:15:41
banks and the governments of the world
00:15:42
they are connected to more
00:15:44
maneuverability to manage their reserves
00:15:47
and even monetize them. Which also means
00:15:49
that the countries I have identified as
00:15:51
being underweight on gold and even in
00:15:54
some instances not having any gold at
00:15:56
all will have some major catching up to
00:15:58
do which is just one reason why I remain
00:16:01
extremely bullish on gold at this moment
00:16:04
in 2025. And I will use this opportunity
00:16:08
to remind everyone that the country I
00:16:11
was born in, Canada, has no gold at all.
00:16:14
Well done, Canada. Wishing you all the
00:16:16
best. Anyhow, with that said, bookmark.
00:16:18
I hope that answers your question. Thank
00:16:20
you very much for asking it. So, with
00:16:23
that said, that's it for this video. I
00:16:25
thank you all very much for watching. If
00:16:27
you enjoyed the content, please remember
00:16:29
to leave a like. If you think that
00:16:31
somebody in your life needs to hear this
00:16:33
message, please don't be shy. Share it
00:16:35
with them. That is how this channel
00:16:37
grows. And as I say at the end of all of
00:16:39
my videos, please take care of
00:16:41
yourselves and take care of each other.
00:16:43
I do think things are going to get a bit
00:16:45
tough still this year. So, you know,
00:16:48
that taking care of each other part of
00:16:50
the message is going to be particularly
00:16:52
important. I'm wishing you all a
00:16:54
fantastic day ahead. See you in the next
00:16:56
one. Goodbye.
