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There’s a new war brewing in Ukraine,
this time between the EU and the US.
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This fight has less to do with Russian
President Vladimir Putin and his “special
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military operation,” and instead comes down
to something that Ukraine has and the rest
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of the world wants – critical minerals.
The U.S. is already negotiating a deal
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with Ukraine for tho se minerals. Now, Europe
has come storming into the fight with a deal of
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its own. But what do those deals offer Ukraine?
Who’s going to win between the U.S. and Europe?
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And why do Ukrainian minerals
matter so much in the first place?
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On February 24, news started circulating that
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and
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U.S. President Donald Trump were negotiating.
They weren’t talking about ways to end the
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Ukraine war. Rather, the subject of discussions
focused on Ukraine’s vast reserves of critical
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minerals. Trump wants those minerals, badly.
The BBC reported that Ukraine and the U.S.
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were already close to signing a deal that would
see the U.S. gain enormous access to Ukraine’s
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mineral deposits. “Negotiations have been very
constructive,” wrote Ukraine’s Deputy Minister
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for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga
Stefanishyna in an X post. “…Nea rly all key
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details [are] finalized.” Stefanishyna added
that Ukraine was committed to proceeding to
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the signature stage as quickly as possible.
The news came amidst Ukraine facing growing
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pressure from the United States. Trump has been
surprisingly vocal in his criticism of Zelenskyy
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in recent weeks. He’s labeled Ukraine’s leader
as a dictator and even insinuated that Ukraine
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started the war with Russia. However, these
claims by America’s president may have been a
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smokescreen. Perhaps Trump was both pulling
the wool over Putin’s eyes and using his
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growing relationship with Russia’s President
to push Ukraine into giving him what he wants.
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It looks like the ploy worked.
However, talk about Ukraine’s
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critical mineral deposits isn’t anything new.
When Zelenskyy met with Trump in September 2024,
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while the latter was still on the campaign
trail, he presented a Ukrainian “victory
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plan.” Rumors at the time suggested this
plan contained an agreement to provide the
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U.S. with access to Ukraine’s minerals. This
represented Zelenskyy playing the political
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game. By offering Trump something he knew the
future U.S. President wanted, he gave Trump
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a tangible reason to continue supporting
Ukraine in its war with Russia. After all,
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the U.S. wouldn’t get any of the minerals if
Putin’s forces overcame Ukraine’s defenses.
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All seemed to be on track with the deal.
But there was a problem.
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When negotiations started, Trump told Zelenskyy
that the U.S. wanted a 50% share of all of
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Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. According to Trump,
that would reflect the amount of aid the U.S. has
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provided to Ukraine over the last three years of
its war with Russia. America’s President claims
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that U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine
totals $500 billion. Zelenskyy believes otherwise.
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He says that American assistance so far totals
around $100 billion, while also pointing out that
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the aid Ukraine has received so far was a grant,
not a form of credit. Ukraine has no obligation to
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repay the U.S. for that aid. The Kiel Institute
for the World Economy’s support tracker places
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the actual figure somewhere in the middle, though
far closer to Zelenskyy’s estimate. It says the
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U.S. has provided Ukraine with $119.79 billion so
far, with a few billion more yet to be allocated.
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Regardless of who was right, the
deal asked too much of Ukraine.
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Zelenskyy outright refused. “I can’t sell
our state,” Ukraine’s President replied,
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which prompted a redrafting of the deal.
That redraft was even worse for Ukraine.
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Zelenskyy told reporters that the new draft
called for the U.S. to have full control over
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Ukraine’s minerals. It also didn’t contain
the security guarantees that Zelenskyy wanted
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to see from the U.S. “I will not sign
what 10 generations of Ukrainians will
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have to pay back,” Zelenskyy said in a press
conference after receiving the Sunday redraft.
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International opinions about the American deal are
divided. Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson
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supports it. He claimed on February 24 that access
to Ukraine’s minerals was a “great prize” while
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rejecting calls claiming that America’s tabled
proposals were a rip-off. “What the Ukrainians
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get from this is a United States commitment under
Donald Trump to a free, sovereign, and secure
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Ukraine,” claimed Johnson. Other commentators
disagreed, with some describing the proposed deal
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as “colonial” – a way for the U.S. to take control
of Ukraine without actually invading the country.
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Again, the truth is likely
somewhere in the middle.
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But most seemed to agree that the proposed
U.S. deal wasn’t mutually beneficia,
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and the EU has decided it’s time to act.
As all of this political wrangling has been
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going on, Europe was paying very close attention.
The continent has its own concerns over America’s
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maverick President. It worries that the U.S. will
strong arm Ukraine to get the deal it wants by
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threatening to withdraw aid from Zelenskyy’s brave
forces. There are also ongoing concerns about
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what all of that would mean for NATO, with the
possibility that Trump might pull the U.S. out of
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the collective defense organization still looming.
So, Europe came up with a plan.
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Rather than allow the U.S. to sign a critical
minerals deal with Ukraine, the continent would
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offer one of its own. This deal would give Ukraine
more control over its precious resources while
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being beneficial to the entire continent.
That deal has now been offered.
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At least, that’s according to Politico, which
reported on the European Union’s, or EU’s,
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supposed offer to Ukraine on February 25. It
said that Europe had offered a new deal to
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Ukraine just as Trump was claiming that the U.S.
was close to inking a deal with Zelenskyy. The
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pitch was made by Stéphane Séjourné, who is the
European Commissioner for Industrial Strategy,
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during a visit to Kyiv that marked the third
anniversary of Putin’s invasion of the country.
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“21 of the 30 critical materials Europe needs can
be provided by Ukraine in a win-win partnership,”
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Séjourné claimed when speaking to Agence France
Press. “The added value Europe offers is that
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we will never demand a deal that’s not mutually
beneficial,” added the Commissioner. That sounds
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a lot more like what Zelenskyy wants out of a
deal. With Europe, he’d hand over less control
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of Ukraine’s rare mineral resources while
maintaining a multi-country security partner.
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It sounds like an easy choice, right?
But there’s another twist to the tale.
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Even as Séjourné claimed that he’d offered a new
deal to Ukraine, the European Commission denied
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that such a proposal existed. On February 25, The
Kyiv Independent published a report in which it
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quoted European Commission spokesperson
Thomas Regnier. “There is no proposal,”
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Regnier told the outlet, adding that the EU
already has a deal with Ukraine relating to
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critical raw materials that was formalized
in 2021 via the Memorandum of Understanding.
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In other words, the EU deal already exists.
“This dates back four years” added Regnier.
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“This cooperation is not only about securing
supply chains for the EU but also about
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fostering local value creation and capacity
building in partner countries ensuring mutual
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benefits.” Regnier also added that Séjourné’s
comments weren’t meant to imply that Europe was
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competing with the U.S. on a deal. “This is really
here about cooperation with Ukraine and not about
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any sort of competition with the U.S.” added
the spokesperson. Regnier noted that Séjourné
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was simply reinforcing the EU’s intention to work
alongside Ukraine per the agreements made via the
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Memorandum of Mutual Understanding.
It all feels a little…murky.
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One minute, we seem to be seeing the U.S. and
EU lining up to fight over who gets control
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over Ukraine’s vast mineral assets. The next
minute, the EU is pulling out of that fight,
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claiming that any deal being mentioned in reports
is just a deal that the EU signed back in 2021.
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Soon, that murkiness may clear away.
After all, it looks like the
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U.S. has gotten what it wants.
In the early hours of February 26,
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Ukraine claimed that it had agreed to terms
with the U.S. on the crucial minerals deal.
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No confirmation has come from the office of
President Trump as of the writing of this video,
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likely due to the time difference
between Ukraine and the U.S. However,
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the agreed-upon deal seems more
favorable to Ukraine than the one
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Trump presented to Zelenskyy on February 23.
Sky News reports that the new American deal
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no longer contains an initial demand from the
U.S. for $500 billion of the potential revenue
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generated by Ukraine’s resources. That appears
to be a major backpedal for Trump. Whether he
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still feels Ukraine owes the U.S. $500 billion
doesn’t matter. If Ukraine is to be believed,
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the U.S. won’t be receiving that money
via the minerals deal. However, Ukraine
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doesn’t get it all its own way in the revised
agreement. The latest draft doesn’t include
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a commitment from the U.S. to provide security
guarantees to Ukraine should a ceasefire between
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it and Russia be negotiated. That’s something
Ukraine desperately needs. It doesn’t want to
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find itself coming under Russian attack again
once it starts rebuilding during a ceasefire.
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Still, the deal is a massive step forward for
Zelenskyy’s relationship with Trump. Once signed,
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it’ll start a new long-term partnership between
the two that sees the U.S. get what it wants,
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which will keep Trump happy. The lack of security
guarantees is a concern for Ukraine. However, it
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may be assumed that the U.S. will step in should
Putin attack again after a ceasefire, if not to
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protect Ukraine then to ensure the money generated
from the country’s minerals keeps on flowing.
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But what minerals does Ukraine have? And why are
they so important that they’ve almost sparked a
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brief negotiation war between the U.S. and EU?
As Séjourné said on February 25, Ukraine is
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home to 21 of the 30 rare earth minerals that
the EU classifies as “critical raw materials.”
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Its reserves of these minerals are vast. The
United Nations Regional Information Center for
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Western Europe says that Ukraine is home to
5% of the world’s reserves of these minerals,
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which include the likes of lithium, graphite,
niobium, and cobalt. Ukraine’s Deputy Minister
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of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources
Svetlana Grinchuk pointed this out in 2022 while
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speaking at the UN Economic Commission for
Europe. She said Ukraine is home to 5% of the
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rare earth mineral reserves despite the country
only accounting for 0.4% of the Earth’s surface.
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In other words, Ukraine is a treasure
chest of precious minerals.ex
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It’s just waiting for allies
to help it unlock the chest.
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Lithium is the headline mineral of the bunch. The
mineral is an essential ingredient in rechargeable
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batteries, which are used in everything from
smartphones and laptops to electric cars and
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weaponry. Ukraine has a lot of it – about 500,000
tons according to the National Academy of Sciences
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in Ukraine. The problem is that two of the
country's key mining sites – Shevchenkivskyi
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in Donetsk and Kruta Balka in Zaporizhzhya – are
currently located in conflict zones. Russia is
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actively fighting Ukraine in territories where
its rare earth minerals are found. That’s no
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coincidence. Behind all of Putin’s rhetoric about
wanting to reclaim Ukraine as part of Russia,
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there’s a clear desire to get his hands on the
country’s valuable resources. That’s one of the
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reasons why he spent much of 2024 and into
2025 pushing for Donetsk. Putin hopes that
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claiming the territory will give him access to a
steady supply of lithium. And it’s even better if
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a peace plan with Ukraine allows Russia to keep
the territory it's captured so far – Russia would
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get full control over the resources in Donetsk.
Right now, Moscow is believed to control around
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40% of Ukraine’s metallic minerals. Russia
also occupies territory containing 63% of
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Ukraine’s coal mines, along with half of its
cesium, tantalum, manganese, and rare earth
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deposits. According to Ukraine’s Economy Minister
Yulia Svyrydenko, those resources are worth about
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$350 billion alone. Seizing those assets is
key to Putin’s war strategy because it allows
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him to cut off a key source of income to Ukraine.
Before Putin launched his February 2022 invasion,
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Ukraine’s minerals accounted for 6.1% of its gross
domestic product and 30% of its exports. And there
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are other minerals besides lithium to which
Europe and the U.S. want access. For instance,
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Ukraine provided 7% of the titanium used
around the world in 2019. That rare metal
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is used for building planes and nuclear power
plants. It was also responsible for 20% of the
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world’s graphite before Russia invaded,
which is another material used in nuclear
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power plants, along with electric vehicles.
Ukraine is also perfectly positioned to meet
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rising global demand, according to the UN.
It says that demand for copper is expected
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to increase by 40% over the next few decades, with
demand for lithium rising by 90% during the same
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period. There’s also demand on the environmental
front. The International Energy Agency says that
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meeting global net-zero carbon emissions by 2030
requires the opening of 50 new lithium mines,
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along with 17 cobalt and 60 nickel mines. Again,
Ukraine is home to all of those materials,
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which could make it a crucial contributor
to combating global climate change.
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All of this brings us to the question
of why Ukraine’s mineral resources
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are so important to the U.S. and EU.
We’ve just touched on one of the answers.
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Ukraine’s rare mineral reserves are going to
become increasingly vital in the coming years.
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Not that they aren’t already. Global demand
for lithium and copper is already massive.
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But as more countries move toward renewable
energy technologies, demand will only grow.
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Think about what that means
from a profit perspective.
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On the lithium front, a single ton
of this material costs $10452.30
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as of February 25. Multiply that by 500,000
– which is the number of tons Ukraine has
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in its reserves – and you get $5.226 billion.
And that’s a low-end price. In December 2022,
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per-ton prices for lithium were around $80,000.
That would have made Ukraine’s reserves worth a
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massive $40 billion. The price of this material
may rise again given the world’s increasing use
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of lithium in electric products. As other
reserves run dry, Ukraine’s lithium could
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be a massive money spinner for Europe and the U.S.
Dr. Robert Muggah, who’s the Principal of SecDev,
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expands on this. He points out that critical
minerals “are the foundation of the 21st
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century economy.” They are crucial in renewable
energy, as already mentioned, but also offer
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expansive military and industrial infrastructure
applications. Muggah claims these minerals are
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playing “a growing strategic role in geopolitics
and geoeconomics.” With that growing role will
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come more potential for profit, which is great
for Ukraine. But it’s also great for Trump because
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it means he gets to claim a big win in clawing
back the money he believes Ukraine owes the U.S.
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However, future profit may not be the main reason
that Trump wants Ukraine’s minerals so badly.
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There’s another factor at play here:
China.
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Right now, China is one of the dominant powers in
critical mineral refining capacity. The Guardian
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says Beijing handles refining for about 35%
of the world’s nickel, along with up to 70% of
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its lithium and cobalt. It’s also the biggest
player when it comes to rare earth elements,
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or REEs. China accounted for nearly half of the
world’s supply of REEs in 2024 and handled almost
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90% of its refining of these precious materials.
Now, think about what Donald Trump has done to
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China since he became U.S. President.
He’s instigated a trade war with China
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using his tariffs. Trump’s 10% tariffs on all
Chinese imports took effect on February 4. Trump
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also claims that he’s going to impose a 25% tariff
on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S.,
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which will include China’s metals. This has
already triggered a response from Beijing. China
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is taking a tit-for-tat approach to Trump’s
approach by implementing tariffs of its own.
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It b now has a 15% border tax that applies
to all imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas
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and coal products, along with a 10% tariff on
large-engine cars, crude oil, and agricultural
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machinery. China also imposed a ban on rare
mineral exports to the U.S. in December 2024.
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That ongoing trade battle is evolving into
a major problem for the U.S. on the critical
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minerals front. With China being so deeply
entrenched in that sector, the U.S. has to
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look for alternatives to keep supplies of
these minerals flowing into the country.
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Trump’s deal with Ukraine is his “get out of jail
free” card when it comes to the mineral issue.
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The EU likely sees a similar threat related
to China controlling so much of the world’s
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critical mineral reserves, which is why it
struck its own deal with Ukraine back in 2021.
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China has been on Trump’s mind ever since he took
office, according to a February 25 article by
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The Conversation. It points out that China also
controls a large portion of the world’s gallium
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reserves, which is key to many of America’s
most modern defense technologies. Ukraine is
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the world’s fifth-largest gallium producer,
meaning Trump has been eyeing up his minerals
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deal for a long time because he knows Ukraine
can replace the lost flow of Chinese gallium.
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Trump is also wary of Putin’s close relationship
with China, especially given that China has
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become the dominant force in that twosome
according to The Conversation. Beijing’s
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increasing influence needs to be countered,
at least in Trump’s mind. The minerals deal
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with Ukraine is a way to take power away from
China. If Ukraine can offer the minerals that
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China no longer provides to the U.S., Trump
proves to Beijing that the world doesn’t
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need China as much as Beijing thinks it does.
Zelenskyy is keen on critical minerals deals,
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whether with the U.S. or the EU, because
those deals can reopen a valuable part of
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his country’s economy. And even when those
deals don’t include security guarantees,
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as is the case with the U.S. deal, they’re still
valuable. Each deal makes the West more reliant
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on Ukraine’s most valuable resources at a time
when China is cutting the West off from those
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resources. The U.S. and EU will want to hold on
to that value, meaning they may provide Ukraine
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with security and greater access to its own
minerals even if neither provides any guarantees.
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Perhaps Zelenskyy has conducted the
biggest masterstroke in these deals.
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Security is implied, if not guaranteed. The
deal Ukraine struck with the EU in 2021,
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and that is now being touted again,
strengthens Ukraine’s ties with its
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European partners. As for Ukraine’s new deal
with the U.S., it may just represent the olive
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branch Zelenskyy needs to lure America’s
President back to his side after several
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weeks of Trump seeming to favor Putin.
And best of all, striking those deals
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also means that Putin will face direct
opposition from the U.S. and EU if he
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tries to claim the mineral resources in the
territory that Russia currently occupies.
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But what do you think about Europe’s and
America’s mineral deals with Ukraine? Will
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they have an impact on the Ukraine war? Has
Zelenskyy used these deals to curry favor with
00:17:58
the U.S. at a time when American support
seemed shaky? Let us know what you think
00:18:10
in the comments and remember to subscribe to the
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