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Many people face the news each morning
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with trepidation and dread.
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Every day, we read of shootings,
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inequality, pollution, dictatorship,
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war and the spread of nuclear weapons.
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These are some of the reasons
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that 2016 was called
the "Worst. Year. Ever."
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Until 2017 claimed that record --
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(Laughter)
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and left many people longing
for earlier decades,
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when the world seemed safer,
cleaner and more equal.
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But is this a sensible way
to understand the human condition
00:00:50
in the 21st century?
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As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out,
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"Nothing is more responsible
for the good old days
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than a bad memory."
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(Laughter)
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You can always fool yourself
into seeing a decline
00:01:05
if you compare bleeding
headlines of the present
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with rose-tinted images of the past.
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What does the trajectory
of the world look like
00:01:13
when we measure well-being over time
using a constant yardstick?
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Let's compare the most recent
data on the present
00:01:20
with the same measures 30 years ago.
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Last year, Americans killed each other
at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,
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had seven percent
of their citizens in poverty
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and emitted 21 million tons
of particulate matter
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and four million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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But 30 years ago, the homicide rate
was 8.5 per hundred thousand,
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poverty rate was 12 percent
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and we emitted 35 million tons
of particulate matter
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and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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What about the world as a whole?
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Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars,
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60 autocracies,
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10 percent of the world population
in extreme poverty
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and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.
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But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars,
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85 autocracies,
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37 percent of the world population
in extreme poverty
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and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.
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True, last year was a terrible year
for terrorism in Western Europe,
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with 238 deaths,
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but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.
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What's going on?
00:02:30
Was 1988 a particularly bad year?
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Or are these improvements a sign
that the world, for all its struggles,
00:02:37
gets better over time?
00:02:39
Might we even invoke the admittedly
old-fashioned notion of progress?
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To do so is to court
a certain amount of derision,
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because I have found
that intellectuals hate progress.
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(Laughter)
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(Applause)
00:02:57
And intellectuals who call themselves
progressive really hate progress.
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(Laughter)
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Now, it's not that they hate
the fruits of progress, mind you.
00:03:05
Most academics and pundits
00:03:08
would rather have their surgery
with anesthesia than without it.
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It's the idea of progress
that rankles the chattering class.
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If you believe that humans
can improve their lot, I have been told,
00:03:21
that means that you have a blind faith
00:03:23
and a quasi-religious belief
in the outmoded superstition
00:03:28
and the false promise
of the myth of the onward march
00:03:31
of inexorable progress.
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You are a cheerleader
for vulgar American can-doism,
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with the rah-rah spirit
of boardroom ideology,
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Silicon Valley
and the Chamber of Commerce.
00:03:45
You are a practitioner of Whig history,
00:03:48
a naive optimist, a Pollyanna
and, of course, a Pangloss,
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alluding to the Voltaire
character who declared,
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"All is for the best
in the best of all possible worlds."
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Well, Professor Pangloss,
as it happens, was a pessimist.
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A true optimist believes
there can be much better worlds
00:04:04
than the one we have today.
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But all of this is irrelevant,
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because the question
of whether progress has taken place
00:04:10
is not a matter of faith
00:04:12
or having an optimistic temperament
or seeing the glass as half full.
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It's a testable hypothesis.
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For all their differences,
00:04:20
people largely agree
on what goes into human well-being:
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life, health, sustenance, prosperity,
peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,
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leisure, happiness.
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All of these things can be measured.
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If they have improved over time,
that, I submit, is progress.
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Let's go to the data,
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beginning with the most
precious thing of all, life.
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For most of human history,
life expectancy at birth was around 30.
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Today, worldwide, it is more than 70,
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and in the developed parts of the world,
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more than 80.
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250 years ago, in the richest
countries of the world,
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a third of the children
did not live to see their fifth birthday,
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before the risk was brought
down a hundredfold.
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Today, that fate befalls
less than six percent of children
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in the poorest countries of the world.
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Famine is one of the Four Horsemen
of the Apocalypse.
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It could bring devastation
to any part of the world.
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Today, famine has been banished
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to the most remote
and war-ravaged regions.
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200 years ago, 90 percent
of the world's population
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subsisted in extreme poverty.
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Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do.
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For most of human history,
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the powerful states and empires
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were pretty much always
at war with each other,
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and peace was a mere
interlude between wars.
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Today, they are never
at war with each other.
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The last great power war
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pitted the United States
against China 65 years ago.
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More recently, wars of all kinds
have become fewer and less deadly.
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The annual rate of war has fallen from
about 22 per hundred thousand per year
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in the early '50s to 1.2 today.
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Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks
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in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey
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and is threatened by the rise
of authoritarian populism
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in Eastern Europe and the United States.
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Yet the world has never been
more democratic
00:06:17
than it has been in the past decade,
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with two-thirds of the world's people
living in democracies.
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Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy
and the code of vendetta
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are replaced by the rule of law.
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It happened when feudal Europe was brought
under the control of centralized kingdoms,
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so that today a Western European
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has 1/35th the chance of being murdered
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compared to his medieval ancestors.
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It happened again in colonial New England,
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in the American Wild West
when the sheriffs moved to town,
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and in Mexico.
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Indeed, we've become safer
in just about every way.
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Over the last century,
we've become 96 percent less likely
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to be killed in a car crash,
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88 percent less likely
to be mowed down on the sidewalk,
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99 percent less likely
to die in a plane crash,
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95 percent less likely
to be killed on the job,
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89 percent less likely
to be killed by an act of God,
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such as a drought, flood,
wildfire, storm, volcano,
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landslide, earthquake or meteor strike,
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presumably not because God
has become less angry with us
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but because of improvements
in the resilience of our infrastructure.
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And what about
the quintessential act of God,
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the projectile hurled by Zeus himself?
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Yes, we are 97 percent less likely
to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
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Before the 17th century,
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no more than 15 percent of Europeans
could read or write.
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Europe and the United States
achieved universal literacy
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by the middle of the 20th century,
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and the rest of the world is catching up.
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Today, more than 90 percent
of the world's population
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under the age of 25 can read and write.
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In the 19th century, Westerners
worked more than 60 hours per week.
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Today, they work fewer than 40.
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Thanks to the universal penetration
of running water and electricity
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in the developed world
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and the widespread adoption
of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,
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refrigerators, dishwashers,
stoves and microwaves,
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the amount of our lives
that we forfeit to housework
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has fallen from 60 hours a week
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to fewer than 15 hours a week.
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Do all of these gains in health,
wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure
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make us any happier?
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The answer is yes.
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In 86 percent of the world's countries,
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happiness has increased in recent decades.
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Well, I hope to have convinced you
00:08:47
that progress is not a matter
of faith or optimism,
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but is a fact of human history,
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indeed the greatest fact in human history.
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And how has this fact
been covered in the news?
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(Laughter)
00:09:03
A tabulation of positive and negative
emotion words in news stories
00:09:07
has shown that during the decades
in which humanity has gotten healthier,
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wealthier, wiser, safer and happier,
00:09:13
the "New York Times"
has become increasingly morose
00:09:18
and the world's broadcasts too
have gotten steadily glummer.
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Why don't people appreciate progress?
00:09:25
Part of the answer comes
from our cognitive psychology.
00:09:28
We estimate risk using a mental shortcut
called the "availability heuristic."
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The easier it is to recall
something from memory,
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the more probable we judge it to be.
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The other part of the answer
comes from the nature of journalism,
00:09:42
captured in this satirical headline
from "The Onion,"
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"CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide
00:09:48
What Viewers Should
Panic About For Rest of Day."
00:09:50
(Laughter)
00:09:52
(Applause)
00:09:57
News is about stuff that happens,
not stuff that doesn't happen.
00:10:01
You never see a journalist who says,
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"I'm reporting live from a country
that has been at peace for 40 years,"
00:10:07
or a city that has not
been attacked by terrorists.
00:10:10
Also, bad things can happen quickly,
00:10:13
but good things aren't built in a day.
00:10:15
The papers could have run the headline,
00:10:17
"137,000 people escaped
from extreme poverty yesterday"
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every day for the last 25 years.
00:10:24
That's one and a quarter billion people
leaving poverty behind,
00:10:29
but you never read about it.
00:10:31
Also, the news capitalizes
on our morbid interest
00:10:34
in what can go wrong,
00:10:35
captured in the programming policy,
"If it bleeds, it leads."
00:10:40
Well, if you combine our cognitive biases
with the nature of news,
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you can see why the world
has been coming to an end
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for a very long time indeed.
00:10:50
Let me address
some questions about progress
00:10:52
that no doubt have occurred
to many of you.
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First, isn't it good to be pessimistic
00:10:59
to safeguard against complacency,
00:11:01
to rake the muck, to speak truth to power?
00:11:04
Well, not exactly.
00:11:06
It's good to be accurate.
00:11:08
Of course we should be aware
of suffering and danger
00:11:10
wherever they occur,
00:11:12
but we should also be aware
of how they can be reduced,
00:11:15
because there are dangers
to indiscriminate pessimism.
00:11:18
One of them is fatalism.
00:11:20
If all our efforts at improving the world
00:11:22
have been in vain,
00:11:23
why throw good money after bad?
00:11:25
The poor will always be with you.
00:11:28
And since the world will end soon --
00:11:30
if climate change doesn't kill us all,
00:11:32
then runaway artificial
intelligence will --
00:11:34
a natural response is
to enjoy life while we can,
00:11:38
eat, drink and be merry,
for tomorrow we die.
00:11:42
The other danger of thoughtless
pessimism is radicalism.
00:11:46
If our institutions are all failing
and beyond hope for reform,
00:11:50
a natural response
is to seek to smash the machine,
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drain the swamp,
00:11:55
burn the empire to the ground,
00:11:56
on the hope that whatever
rises out of the ashes
00:12:00
is bound to be better
than what we have now.
00:12:03
Well, if there is
such a thing as progress,
00:12:06
what causes it?
00:12:07
Progress is not some mystical force
or dialectic lifting us ever higher.
00:12:12
It's not a mysterious arc of history
bending toward justice.
00:12:16
It's the result of human efforts
governed by an idea,
00:12:19
an idea that we associate
with the 18th century Enlightenment,
00:12:23
namely that if we apply reason and science
00:12:28
that enhance human well-being,
00:12:30
we can gradually succeed.
00:12:32
Is progress inevitable? Of course not.
00:12:36
Progress does not mean
that everything becomes better
00:12:39
for everyone everywhere all the time.
00:12:42
That would be a miracle,
and progress is not a miracle
00:12:45
but problem-solving.
00:12:47
Problems are inevitable
00:12:49
and solutions create new problems
which have to be solved in their turn.
00:12:53
The unsolved problems
facing the world today are gargantuan,
00:12:57
including the risks of climate change
00:13:00
and nuclear war,
00:13:01
but we must see them
as problems to be solved,
00:13:04
not apocalypses in waiting,
00:13:06
and aggressively pursue solutions
00:13:09
like Deep Decarbonization
for climate change
00:13:12
and Global Zero for nuclear war.
00:13:15
Finally, does the Enlightenment
go against human nature?
00:13:19
This is an acute question for me,
00:13:22
because I'm a prominent advocate
of the existence of human nature,
00:13:25
with all its shortcomings
and perversities.
00:13:28
In my book "The Blank Slate,"
00:13:30
I argued that the human prospect
is more tragic than utopian
00:13:34
and that we are not stardust,
we are not golden
00:13:37
and there's no way
we are getting back to the garden.
00:13:39
(Laughter)
00:13:42
But my worldview has lightened up
00:13:44
in the 15 years since
"The Blank Slate" was published.
00:13:47
My acquaintance with
the statistics of human progress,
00:13:50
starting with violence
00:13:51
but now encompassing
every other aspect of our well-being,
00:13:55
has fortified my belief
00:13:57
that in understanding
our tribulations and woes,
00:14:00
human nature is the problem,
00:14:02
but human nature, channeled
by Enlightenment norms and institutions,
00:14:06
is also the solution.
00:14:09
Admittedly, it's not easy
to replicate my own data-driven epiphany
00:14:14
with humanity at large.
00:14:16
Some intellectuals have responded
00:14:18
with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now,"
00:14:21
saying first how dare he claim
that intellectuals hate progress,
00:14:25
and second, how dare he claim
that there has been progress.
00:14:28
(Laughter)
00:14:32
With others, the idea of progress
just leaves them cold.
00:14:35
Saving the lives of billions,
00:14:37
eradicating disease, feeding the hungry,
00:14:40
teaching kids to read?
00:14:42
Boring.
00:14:44
At the same time, the most common response
I have received from readers is gratitude,
00:14:49
gratitude for changing
their view of the world
00:14:51
from a numb and helpless fatalism
00:14:54
to something more constructive,
00:14:55
even heroic.
00:14:57
I believe that the ideals
of the Enlightenment
00:14:59
can be cast a stirring narrative,
00:15:01
and I hope that people
with greater artistic flare
00:15:04
and rhetorical power than I
00:15:06
can tell it better and spread it further.
00:15:09
It goes something like this.
00:15:12
We are born into a pitiless universe,
00:15:14
facing steep odds
against life-enabling order
00:15:18
and in constant jeopardy of falling apart.
00:15:21
We were shaped by a process
that is ruthlessly competitive.
00:15:25
We are made from crooked timber,
00:15:27
vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness
00:15:30
and at times astounding stupidity.
00:15:33
Yet human nature has also
been blessed with resources
00:15:36
that open a space
for a kind of redemption.
00:15:39
We are endowed with the power
to combine ideas recursively,
00:15:42
to have thoughts about our thoughts.
00:15:45
We have an instinct for language,
00:15:47
allowing us to share the fruits
of our ingenuity and experience.
00:15:51
We are deepened
with the capacity for sympathy,
00:15:54
for pity, imagination,
compassion, commiseration.
00:15:59
These endowments have found ways
to magnify their own power.
00:16:03
The scope of language has been augmented
00:16:05
by the written, printed
and electronic word.
00:16:09
Our circle of sympathy has been expanded
00:16:11
by history, journalism
and the narrative arts.
00:16:15
And our puny rational faculties
have been multiplied
00:16:18
by the norms and institutions of reason,
00:16:20
intellectual curiosity, open debate,
00:16:24
skepticism of authority and dogma
00:16:26
and the burden of proof to verify ideas
00:16:29
by confronting them against reality.
00:16:32
As the spiral of recursive improvement
00:16:34
gathers momentum,
00:16:36
we eke out victories
against the forces that grind us down,
00:16:40
not least the darker parts
of our own nature.
00:16:43
We penetrate the mysteries
of the cosmos, including life and mind.
00:16:48
We live longer, suffer less, learn more,
00:16:52
get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures
00:16:54
and rich experiences.
00:16:57
Fewer of us are killed,
assaulted, enslaved, exploited
00:17:01
or oppressed by the others.
00:17:03
From a few oases, the territories
with peace and prosperity are growing
00:17:08
and could someday encompass the globe.
00:17:11
Much suffering remains
00:17:13
and tremendous peril,
00:17:15
but ideas on how to reduce them
have been voiced,
00:17:18
and an infinite number of others
are yet to be conceived.
00:17:22
We will never have a perfect world,
00:17:24
and it would be dangerous to seek one.
00:17:26
But there's no limit
to the betterments we can attain
00:17:29
if we continue to apply knowledge
to enhance human flourishing.
00:17:34
This heroic story
is not just another myth.
00:17:37
Myths are fictions, but this one is true,
00:17:41
true to the best of our knowledge,
which is the only truth we can have.
00:17:44
As we learn more,
00:17:46
we can show which parts of the story
continue to be true and which ones false,
00:17:50
as any of them might be
and any could become.
00:17:54
And this story belongs not to any tribe
00:17:56
but to all of humanity,
00:17:58
to any sentient creature
with the power of reason
00:18:02
and the urge to persist in its being,
00:18:05
for it requires only the convictions
00:18:07
that life is better than death,
00:18:09
health is better than sickness,
00:18:11
abundance is better than want,
00:18:13
freedom is better than coercion,
00:18:16
happiness is better than suffering
00:18:18
and knowledge is better
than ignorance and superstition.
00:18:22
Thank you.
00:18:23
(Applause)
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