Why AI will destroy human civilization | Max Tegmark and Lex Fridman

00:07:18
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tW2I37TMUsA

Ringkasan

TLDRThe video discusses the parallels between capitalism and the potential dangers of superintelligent AI, emphasizing how both systems can lead to negative outcomes when they optimize for a single goal. The speaker references a mathematical proof that shows relentless optimization can initially yield benefits but eventually result in disastrous consequences. They advocate for a pause to reassess our direction in both capitalism and AI development, warning that unchecked optimization could lead to catastrophic results for humanity. The conversation also touches on the competition between the West and China in AI, suggesting that both sides would benefit from a reflective pause.

Takeaways

  • 💡 Capitalism and superintelligent AI share a common risk of blind optimization.
  • 📉 Relentless optimization can lead to initial benefits but eventual disasters.
  • 🔍 A pause is necessary to reassess our goals in both capitalism and AI.
  • ⚖️ The 'Moloch' concept illustrates the dangers of optimizing for profit alone.
  • 🌍 Both the West and China could benefit from a reflective halt in AI development.
  • 📈 Initial improvements in systems can mask long-term negative outcomes.
  • 🤖 AI systems often optimize blindly, similar to capitalist markets.
  • 🛑 A six-month pause is proposed to explore different ideas and directions.
  • 🚀 The metaphor of 'going towards Austin' emphasizes the need for correct direction.
  • ⚠️ Unchecked competition in AI could lead to mutual loss for all parties involved.

Garis waktu

  • 00:00:00 - 00:07:18

    The discussion begins with a comparison between capitalism and the potential dangers of superintelligence. The speaker, who has a background in economics, highlights the importance of optimizing market forces while ensuring that negative consequences are avoided. A mathematical proof by Phil Manel and colleagues illustrates that blindly optimizing a single goal can lead to disastrous outcomes over time, similar to how capitalism initially improved efficiency but has now led to negative consequences due to relentless optimization. The speaker draws parallels between capitalism's focus on profit and the risks of AI systems that optimize without proper direction, warning that both could lead to catastrophic results if not carefully managed. The conversation emphasizes the need for a pause to reflect on the direction of technological advancements and capitalism, suggesting that a six-month halt could allow for exploration of alternative ideas and prevent potential disasters. The argument is made that even countries like China would benefit from such a pause, as the race for AI dominance could ultimately lead to collective loss rather than victory.

Peta Pikiran

Video Tanya Jawab

  • What is the main concern about capitalism discussed in the video?

    The concern is that capitalism optimizes for profit without considering broader consequences, leading to negative outcomes.

  • How does the speaker relate capitalism to superintelligent AI?

    Both systems can blindly optimize for a single goal, which can lead to disastrous consequences if not checked.

  • What is the proposed solution to the issues raised?

    The speaker suggests a pause to reassess our goals and directions in both capitalism and AI development.

  • What does the mathematical proof mentioned in the video demonstrate?

    It shows that relentless optimization for a single goal can lead to initial improvements but ultimately results in negative outcomes.

  • Why is a six-month pause suggested?

    To allow time for reflection and exploration of different ideas regarding the direction of AI development.

  • What is the 'Moloch' concept referred to in the discussion?

    Moloch represents the idea of systems that optimize for a single objective, like profit, leading to harmful consequences.

  • How does the speaker view the competition between the West and China in AI development?

    The speaker believes that both sides would benefit from a pause, as unchecked competition could lead to mutual loss.

  • What is the potential risk of developing superintelligent AI according to the speaker?

    The risk is that it could lead to catastrophic outcomes for humanity if it is optimized without proper oversight.

  • What does the speaker mean by 'going towards Austin'?

    It's a metaphor for ensuring that we are on the right path and not straying too far from our intended goals.

  • What is the significance of the discussion for the future of humanity?

    It highlights the importance of being cautious and reflective in our approach to both capitalism and AI development.

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Teks
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Gulir Otomatis:
  • 00:00:02
    so you brought up capitalism earlier and
  • 00:00:06
    there are a lot of people who love
  • 00:00:07
    capitalism and a lot of people
  • 00:00:08
    who really really
  • 00:00:11
    don't and
  • 00:00:14
    it struck me
  • 00:00:16
    recently that the
  • 00:00:18
    what's happening with capitalism here is
  • 00:00:20
    exactly analogous to the way in which
  • 00:00:21
    Super intelligence might wipe us out
  • 00:00:25
    so
  • 00:00:26
    you know you know I studied economics
  • 00:00:29
    for my undergrad Stockholm School of
  • 00:00:31
    Economics yay
  • 00:00:33
    well no no I tell me someone's very
  • 00:00:36
    interested in how how you could use
  • 00:00:38
    Market forces to just get stuff done
  • 00:00:40
    more efficiently but give the right
  • 00:00:42
    incentives to the market so that it
  • 00:00:44
    wouldn't do really bad things
  • 00:00:46
    so Dylan had Phil Manel who's a a
  • 00:00:49
    professor and colleague of mine at MIT
  • 00:00:52
    wrote this really interesting paper with
  • 00:00:54
    some collaborators recently
  • 00:00:56
    where they proved mathematically that if
  • 00:00:58
    you just up take one goal that you just
  • 00:01:00
    optimize for
  • 00:01:02
    on and on and on indefinitely
  • 00:01:04
    do you think he's gonna
  • 00:01:06
    bring you in the right direction
  • 00:01:08
    but basically always happens is in the
  • 00:01:10
    beginning it will make things better for
  • 00:01:13
    you
  • 00:01:14
    but if you keep going at some point
  • 00:01:16
    that's going to start making things
  • 00:01:17
    worse for you again and then gradually
  • 00:01:19
    it's going to make it really really
  • 00:01:20
    terrible so just as a simple
  • 00:01:22
    the way I think of the proof is
  • 00:01:25
    like suppose you want to go from here
  • 00:01:28
    back to Austin for example and you're
  • 00:01:31
    like okay yeah let's just let's go south
  • 00:01:34
    but you put in exactly the right sort of
  • 00:01:35
    the right direction just optimize that
  • 00:01:37
    South as possible you get closer and
  • 00:01:39
    closer to Austin
  • 00:01:42
    but uh there's always some little error
  • 00:01:45
    So you you're not going exactly towards
  • 00:01:48
    Austin but you get pretty close but
  • 00:01:50
    eventually you start going away again
  • 00:01:52
    and eventually you're going to be
  • 00:01:53
    leaving the solar system yeah and they
  • 00:01:56
    they proved it's a beautiful
  • 00:01:57
    mathematical proof this happens
  • 00:01:58
    generally
  • 00:02:00
    and this is very important for AI
  • 00:02:02
    because for even though Stuart Russell
  • 00:02:04
    has
  • 00:02:06
    written a book and given a lot of talks
  • 00:02:08
    on why it's a bad idea to have ai to
  • 00:02:11
    blindly optimize something that's what
  • 00:02:13
    pretty much all our systems do yeah we
  • 00:02:15
    have something called the loss function
  • 00:02:17
    that we're just minimizing or reward
  • 00:02:18
    function we just minimize maximizing
  • 00:02:20
    stuff
  • 00:02:21
    and um
  • 00:02:25
    capitalism is exactly like that too we
  • 00:02:27
    want we wanted to get stuff done more
  • 00:02:30
    efficiently the people wanted so
  • 00:02:33
    we introduce the free market
  • 00:02:37
    things got done much more efficiently
  • 00:02:38
    than they did in
  • 00:02:40
    say communism right and it got better
  • 00:02:45
    but then it just kept optimizing it and
  • 00:02:49
    kept optimizing and you got every bigger
  • 00:02:51
    companies and every more efficient
  • 00:02:52
    information processing and now also very
  • 00:02:54
    much powered by I.T
  • 00:02:57
    and uh eventually a lot of people are
  • 00:02:59
    beginning to feel weight we're kind of
  • 00:03:01
    optimizing a bit too much like why did
  • 00:03:03
    we just chop down half the rainforest
  • 00:03:04
    you know and why why did suddenly these
  • 00:03:07
    Regulators get
  • 00:03:09
    captured by lobbyists and so on it's
  • 00:03:12
    just the same optimization that's been
  • 00:03:14
    running for too long
  • 00:03:15
    if you have an AI that actually has
  • 00:03:18
    power over the world and you just give
  • 00:03:20
    it one goal and just like keep
  • 00:03:22
    optimizing that most likely everybody's
  • 00:03:24
    gonna be like Yay this is great in the
  • 00:03:26
    beginning things are getting better
  • 00:03:28
    but um it's almost impossible to give it
  • 00:03:31
    exactly the right direction to optimize
  • 00:03:34
    in and then
  • 00:03:36
    eventually all hey Breaks Loose right
  • 00:03:39
    Nick Bostrom and others are given the
  • 00:03:41
    example to sound quite silly like what
  • 00:03:43
    if you just want to like
  • 00:03:45
    tell it
  • 00:03:47
    cure cancer or something and that's all
  • 00:03:49
    you tell it maybe it's going to decide
  • 00:03:51
    the
  • 00:03:53
    take over entire continents just so we
  • 00:03:56
    can get more super computer facilities
  • 00:03:58
    in there and
  • 00:03:59
    figure out how to cure cancer backwards
  • 00:04:00
    and then you're like wait that's not
  • 00:04:01
    what I wanted right and
  • 00:04:04
    um
  • 00:04:05
    the the the issue with capitalism and
  • 00:04:08
    the issue with runaway I have kind of
  • 00:04:09
    merged now because the malloc I talked
  • 00:04:12
    about
  • 00:04:13
    is exactly the capitalist molloch that
  • 00:04:15
    we have built an economy that has
  • 00:04:18
    optimizing for only one thing
  • 00:04:20
    profit
  • 00:04:22
    right and that worked great back when
  • 00:04:24
    things were very inefficient and then
  • 00:04:26
    now it's getting done better and it
  • 00:04:28
    worked great as long as the companies
  • 00:04:29
    were small enough that they couldn't
  • 00:04:31
    capture the regulators
  • 00:04:32
    but
  • 00:04:34
    that's not true anymore but they keep
  • 00:04:36
    optimizing
  • 00:04:37
    and now
  • 00:04:38
    they realize that that they can these
  • 00:04:41
    companies can make even more profit by
  • 00:04:43
    building ever more powerful AI even if
  • 00:04:44
    it's Reckless
  • 00:04:47
    but optimize more and more and more and
  • 00:04:50
    more and more
  • 00:04:52
    so this is molok again showing up and I
  • 00:04:55
    just want to anyone here who has any
  • 00:04:58
    concerns about about uh late stage
  • 00:05:02
    capitalism having gone a little too far
  • 00:05:04
    you should worry about
  • 00:05:05
    super intelligence because it's the same
  • 00:05:08
    villain in both cases it's more like and
  • 00:05:11
    optimizing one objective function
  • 00:05:14
    aggressively blindly is going to take us
  • 00:05:18
    there yeah we have this pause from time
  • 00:05:20
    to time and look into our hearts and ask
  • 00:05:24
    why are we doing this is this uh am I
  • 00:05:27
    still going towards Austin or have I
  • 00:05:28
    gone too far you know maybe we should
  • 00:05:30
    change direction
  • 00:05:32
    and that is the idea behind the halt for
  • 00:05:35
    six months what six months it seems like
  • 00:05:37
    a very short period just can we just
  • 00:05:39
    linger and explore different ideas here
  • 00:05:42
    because this feels like a really
  • 00:05:44
    important moment in human history where
  • 00:05:46
    pausing would actually have a
  • 00:05:48
    significant positive effect
  • 00:05:51
    we said six months because we figured
  • 00:05:55
    the number one pushback we're gonna get
  • 00:05:57
    in the west was like but China
  • 00:06:02
    and
  • 00:06:03
    everybody knows there's no way that
  • 00:06:05
    China is going to catch up with the West
  • 00:06:07
    on this in six months so it's that
  • 00:06:09
    argument goes off the table and you can
  • 00:06:11
    forget about geopolitical competition
  • 00:06:13
    and just focus on
  • 00:06:14
    the real issue that's why we put this
  • 00:06:17
    that's really interesting but you've
  • 00:06:19
    already made the case that uh even for
  • 00:06:22
    China if you actually want to take on
  • 00:06:24
    that argument China too would not be
  • 00:06:27
    bothered by a longer halt because they
  • 00:06:30
    don't want to lose control even more
  • 00:06:32
    than the West doesn't
  • 00:06:34
    that's what I think that's a really
  • 00:06:35
    interesting argument like I have to
  • 00:06:37
    actually really think about that which
  • 00:06:39
    the the kind of thing people assume is
  • 00:06:41
    if you develop an AGI
  • 00:06:43
    that open AI if they're the ones that do
  • 00:06:46
    it for example they're going to win but
  • 00:06:49
    you're saying no they're everybody loses
  • 00:06:52
    yeah it's gonna get better and better
  • 00:06:54
    and better and then Kaboom we all lose
  • 00:06:56
    that's what's gonna happen
Tags
  • capitalism
  • superintelligence
  • optimization
  • Moloch
  • AI development
  • profit
  • economic systems
  • pause
  • humanity
  • consequences