Scientists Discuss the Future of Extreme Weather

00:52:10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rc436HZ0zLM

Ringkasan

TLDRIn a Star Talk episode with Neil deGrasse Tyson, NOAA's chief Dr. Richard Spinrad discusses the escalating intensity of hurricanes and the necessity for improved predictive models. The dialogue emphasizes the impact of climate change on commerce and the geopolitical landscape, the integration of oceanic and atmospheric sciences, and NOAA's expanding focus on solar storms. It highlights the role of artificial intelligence in refining these models and underscores the importance of global cooperation in weather prediction and sustainable resource management. NOAA's efforts to keep up with these changes through advanced technologies and partnerships aim to make future weather phenomena more predictable and less destructive.

Takeaways

  • 🌊 Hurricanes are getting more intense, and current models need to adjust to this increasing intensity.
  • 🌞 NOAA's responsibilities now extend to monitoring solar storms, which can affect power grids and electronic communications.
  • 🌐 Climate change impacts commerce, navigation, and geopolitical relations, such as contested open waters due to melting ice.
  • 🌀 Predictive modeling of weather events like hurricanes and tornadoes is improving, thanks to advancements in technology and data collection.
  • 👥 International collaboration is vital for accurate weather predictions and managing marine resources sustainably.
  • 💡 Climate change is not just warming; it's about drastic changes in weather patterns, impacting lives and economies worldwide.
  • 🛰️ NOAA uses advanced technologies, including space-based coronagraphs and drones, to study atmospheric and oceanic conditions in real-time.
  • 🌳 Oceans absorb significant amounts of CO2, influencing climate models and predictions.
  • 📉 New technology and increased data collection improve the accuracy of weather forecasts, making future events less surprising.
  • 🚀 Future technologies and artificial intelligence could further enhance prediction capabilities for unexpected weather events.

Garis waktu

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The introduction focuses on the severity of hurricanes, particularly storm surges, and questions whether a Category Six is necessary due to increasingly intense Category Five hurricanes. The conversation shifts to Neil deGrasse Tyson introducing Dr. Richard Spinrad from NOAA and discussing NOAA's role in addressing the effects of climate on commerce.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    The discussion highlights NOAA's relationship with the Navy, emphasizing the impact of climate change on naval operations. There's a mention of entire countries at risk due to rising sea levels, creating climate refugees. NOAA's focus is on predictions rather than blame, and climate change has become politicized despite its real and increasing effects.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Neil deGrasse Tyson and Dr. Spinrad discuss the evolution of climate science, NOAA's role in space weather, and the importance of understanding oceanic and atmospheric interactions to predict extreme weather events. They highlight improved forecasting capabilities, especially with hurricanes, and how better data collection could have improved past predictions, like during Hurricane Katrina.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Dr. Spinrad explains the mechanisms of hurricanes and the prediction improvements since 2005, emphasizing the importance of understanding both ocean and atmospheric temperatures. He discusses the role of the ocean floor in influencing currents and storm surges and recalls superstorm Sandy's impact due to storm surge, noting advancements in forecasting since then.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Neil deGrasse Tyson highlights the advancement of weather predictions using technology, while Dr. Spinrad discusses solar storms and NOAA's satellite capabilities in predicting them. The conversation touches on the potential impact of solar weather on Earth, such as affecting power grids and communications, and how improved detection has mitigated some effects.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    Discussion moves to NOAA's budget, its impact in saving lives through accurate forecasts, and Rick Spinrad emphasizing preparedness despite unpredictable weather outcomes. Through improved trust and prediction skills, casualties like those from historic storms should not be repeated. NOAA also contributes to fisheries management, vital for economic stability.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    International collaboration is stressed through data sharing for both weather forecasting and sustainable fishing practices. NOAA adheres to global agreements, likened to the Artemis Accord in space exploration, for consistent data collection across nations, ensuring everyone benefits from shared environmental insights.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    NOAA's Argo program and its role in ocean exploration are detailed, highlighting international partnerships in understanding ocean dynamics through shared data. The need for transparent and cooperative global efforts in weather data collection and analysis is emphasized to tackle climate change effectively.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:45:00

    Neil deGrasse Tyson questions climate change implications while Dr. Spinrad explains the ocean's role in carbon uptake and CO2's long-term impacts. They discuss geoengineering possibilities for Mars versus Earth and note a marked increase in more intense hurricanes, urging focus on comprehensive risk assessments beyond wind speeds.

  • 00:45:00 - 00:52:10

    Discusses climate change impacts, potential need for a new hurricane category, and changing weather patterns. Predictive technology has advanced, aiding decision-making. NOAA's extensive projects are cost-effective and support environmental health. The importance of public trust in NOAA's forecasts for safety and preparedness is underscored.

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Video Tanya Jawab

  • What role does NOAA play in weather predictions?

    NOAA is crucial in predicting weather patterns, using advanced technologies and international collaborations for accurate forecasts.

  • How does climate change influence weather phenomena?

    Climate change leads to more intense weather events, such as stronger hurricanes, flooding, and droughts, as well as changes in weather patterns globally.

  • Why is NOAA interested in solar storms?

    Solar storms can disrupt power grids and communication systems, so monitoring them helps prevent potential technological disruptions.

  • How are oceans connected to climate change?

    Oceans absorb significant amounts of CO2, affecting climate patterns and predictions. They are also impacted by rising temperatures and acidification.

  • What is the significance of international cooperation in weather forecasting?

    International cooperation allows for sharing data and resources to enhance the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts globally.

  • How advanced are current weather prediction models?

    Modern weather prediction models have improved significantly but require continual updates and data to handle emerging patterns accurately.

  • What technologies does NOAA use for data collection?

    NOAA employs radars, satellites, drones, and oceanic buoys for comprehensive data collection.

  • Is a category six hurricane classification necessary?

    There's discussion about it, as hurricanes are becoming more intense than the current category five designation can describe.

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Teks
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Gulir Otomatis:
  • 00:00:00
    we all care about the weather and nobody
  • 00:00:01
    wants to to have the weather get the
  • 00:00:04
    best of them one of the most devastating
  • 00:00:05
    aspects of hurricanes is storm surge you
  • 00:00:07
    look at what hurricane Helen just a few
  • 00:00:09
    weeks ago did it was a massive hurricane
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    it was 500 mil across I can give you the
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    best forecast in the world I can give
  • 00:00:16
    you plenty of lead time but it's your
  • 00:00:18
    decision to evacuate and we can't
  • 00:00:21
    control that and will we need a category
  • 00:00:23
    six because these category fives keep
  • 00:00:26
    getting bigger and bigger but it's a
  • 00:00:27
    storm we've never seen before when are
  • 00:00:29
    we getting to category
  • 00:00:31
    [Music]
  • 00:00:35
    six this is Star Talk Neil degrass Tyson
  • 00:00:39
    your personal astrophysicist got with me
  • 00:00:42
    Chuck nice Chucky baby how you doing hey
  • 00:00:44
    Neil So Chuck today's topic is the
  • 00:00:47
    weather ah excellent yes that's supposed
  • 00:00:51
    to be the safest thing to talk about
  • 00:00:53
    with anyone right no no longer oh no I
  • 00:00:57
    guess not very good point no longer very
  • 00:01:00
    good point well we know that it's
  • 00:01:02
    extreme and if we comb the Earth to find
  • 00:01:05
    who's the top weather person that's
  • 00:01:08
    gonna be Sam Champion WABC news he's
  • 00:01:13
    amazing it's it's gonna yeah every every
  • 00:01:16
    local news has their person who they are
  • 00:01:18
    certain is like the best weather
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    forecaster there is but we can go above
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    the mall because we're star and we have
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    access and we brought in the
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    chief chief head honcho of Noah the
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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric
  • 00:01:34
    Administration Dr Richard spinrad oh my
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    gosh Rick how you doing man hey I'm
  • 00:01:40
    doing great Neil Chuck delighted to be
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    here thanks let me get your full title
  • 00:01:45
    straight here the under Secretary of
  • 00:01:48
    Commerce for oceans and atmosphere and
  • 00:01:51
    that's a different title from being Noah
  • 00:01:53
    administrator is that right yeah
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    actually my full title will probably
  • 00:01:57
    take the full duration of this show but
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    it is the under Secretary of Commerce
  • 00:02:01
    Roan and atmosphere and the
  • 00:02:03
    administrator of Noah the National
  • 00:02:05
    Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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    so it's really two hats in this job and
  • 00:02:10
    we're reminded that Commerce which is a
  • 00:02:12
    huge branch of the US government cares
  • 00:02:14
    about climate and weather and because
  • 00:02:17
    goods and services are delivered through
  • 00:02:19
    the air on the waters over the land and
  • 00:02:23
    our relationship with climate is deeply
  • 00:02:26
    impacted yeah like Commerce and um the
  • 00:02:31
    melting uh ice that is causing Passage
  • 00:02:35
    through uh a near Alaska and where
  • 00:02:40
    there's it's a contested Waters now
  • 00:02:42
    because you have Russia who wants that
  • 00:02:44
    water uh and we of course and China and
  • 00:02:49
    it's all because it was ice and nobody's
  • 00:02:53
    looking at the point that it was
  • 00:02:57
    Ice what was once ice is now open Waters
  • 00:02:59
    it's now water right yeah yeah that's so
  • 00:03:03
    so so tell me a couple of things here uh
  • 00:03:06
    what is your relationship with the Navy
  • 00:03:07
    because obviously they care about oceans
  • 00:03:09
    as well yeah so that's a great question
  • 00:03:11
    because I actually worked for the Navy
  • 00:03:13
    for the first part of my professional
  • 00:03:14
    career and I was is there any part of
  • 00:03:16
    the government you don't work
  • 00:03:18
    for yeah Congress I have not worked for
  • 00:03:21
    congress yet and that probably won't
  • 00:03:22
    happen either uh but Navy I mean
  • 00:03:25
    obviously Navy cares about uh oceans and
  • 00:03:28
    climate and atmosph here uh and it's not
  • 00:03:31
    just how they operate their ships
  • 00:03:32
    they're going to be concerned about what
  • 00:03:34
    the impacts of climate are going to be
  • 00:03:36
    for their their bases you know you think
  • 00:03:38
    about norfol where we've got the
  • 00:03:39
    Atlantic Fleet and sea level rise
  • 00:03:41
    impacting the operations uh at the base
  • 00:03:44
    there it's an important element of Naval
  • 00:03:46
    operations and North Virginia yeah north
  • 00:03:49
    of Virginia yeah but I could say the
  • 00:03:50
    same thing about just any just about
  • 00:03:52
    anywhere the Navy operates they do care
  • 00:03:54
    about the Shor side facilities uh but
  • 00:03:56
    they also care about the ability to fly
  • 00:03:59
    uh and carry out their missions and
  • 00:04:01
    obviously I mean one of the strongest
  • 00:04:03
    components for Navy is understanding how
  • 00:04:05
    the ocean uh changes what are the
  • 00:04:07
    Dynamics of the ocean how does that
  • 00:04:08
    affect ships and submarines right and
  • 00:04:11
    also uh last I checked there's several
  • 00:04:14
    whole countries in the in the South
  • 00:04:17
    Pacific where the average sea level is
  • 00:04:20
    just only a few feet the aage elevation
  • 00:04:23
    of the land is only a few feet above sea
  • 00:04:25
    level so if we start melting out
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    glaciers we'll lose entire countries
  • 00:04:29
    creating is what do they call it climate
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    refugees this exactly exactly and and
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    this is not some sort of theoretical
  • 00:04:36
    thing that'll happen a thousand years
  • 00:04:38
    from now the sea level rise uh rate that
  • 00:04:41
    you're alluding to has increased
  • 00:04:42
    dramatically when I when I was a grad
  • 00:04:45
    student you know few decades back we
  • 00:04:47
    would talk about sea level rises being
  • 00:04:49
    say 1 to three millimeters per year in
  • 00:04:51
    some places it's doubled or tripled and
  • 00:04:54
    so consequently some of these nations
  • 00:04:56
    are actually going to be eliminated
  • 00:04:59
    before the end of this Century they'll
  • 00:05:00
    actually be underwater right yeah whole
  • 00:05:04
    islands whole island nations that will
  • 00:05:06
    disappear whole island nations and I
  • 00:05:10
    tell me of course everyone cares about
  • 00:05:13
    the weather although climate change has
  • 00:05:15
    been politicized as we all know recently
  • 00:05:18
    i' I'd like to remind people that Noah
  • 00:05:21
    was founded in the year uh
  • 00:05:24
    1970 and it was signed into law by a
  • 00:05:26
    Republican president so the
  • 00:05:29
    politicization
  • 00:05:30
    of climate um to me feels like a very
  • 00:05:33
    recent phenomenon because clearly we all
  • 00:05:36
    care about the weather and nobody wants
  • 00:05:38
    to to have the weather get the best of
  • 00:05:40
    them in any part of their life or or or
  • 00:05:43
    job yeah I think the the a lot of the uh
  • 00:05:46
    making it a political issue comes from
  • 00:05:48
    trying to figure out who's whose fault
  • 00:05:50
    this is you know who do we get to blame
  • 00:05:52
    for this the the thing about Noah is
  • 00:05:55
    that our mission is very much looking to
  • 00:05:57
    the Future we're about predictions and
  • 00:05:58
    projections and so for us it's less
  • 00:06:01
    about hey who caused this problem and
  • 00:06:03
    more about how well can we predict what
  • 00:06:06
    the change is going to be in the future
  • 00:06:08
    we talk about that's what people hold
  • 00:06:10
    you to because they're trying to make
  • 00:06:11
    decisions based on your predictions
  • 00:06:13
    however you you have a moving goalpost
  • 00:06:15
    at all times Rick because quite frankly
  • 00:06:18
    what happens is um these projections are
  • 00:06:23
    modled on what we have now okay but the
  • 00:06:28
    variable is is um do we increase the
  • 00:06:33
    amount of fossil fuel that we're burning
  • 00:06:36
    because I mean that's really the issue
  • 00:06:38
    so as you have fossil fuel burning
  • 00:06:41
    coming online that changes everything
  • 00:06:43
    that you guys said was going to happen
  • 00:06:46
    for instance um the predictions that
  • 00:06:48
    were made previous to now um basically
  • 00:06:54
    everybody's like oh yeah well they're
  • 00:06:55
    all wrong but first they were saying
  • 00:06:57
    they're going to be wrong because it's
  • 00:06:58
    not going to happen now they're saying
  • 00:07:00
    wrong because it's happening much
  • 00:07:03
    quicker yeah model would normally have a
  • 00:07:07
    future expectation for a rate of CO2
  • 00:07:11
    increase or a rate of anything isn't
  • 00:07:12
    that right uh Rick yeah that's right and
  • 00:07:15
    and this is what climate scientists
  • 00:07:17
    would call the Assumption of
  • 00:07:19
    stationarity that is to say that things
  • 00:07:21
    now are what they're going to be in the
  • 00:07:22
    future and it's not and that's the whole
  • 00:07:25
    point is so how do you take the models
  • 00:07:27
    that you were talking about Neil and uh
  • 00:07:30
    initialize them put the data in up front
  • 00:07:33
    to start the model what assumptions do
  • 00:07:35
    you make about how those conditions are
  • 00:07:37
    going to change in a year in 10 years in
  • 00:07:40
    20 years that's the challenge we have in
  • 00:07:43
    front of us but we're getting really
  • 00:07:44
    good and improving the skill on those
  • 00:07:47
    models now Rick have you has your scope
  • 00:07:50
    been uh I'm wondering
  • 00:07:52
    it I think when Noah was founded by the
  • 00:07:56
    way I I did a deep dive into this
  • 00:08:00
    hardly anyone certainly not even
  • 00:08:02
    geologists or biologists had ever
  • 00:08:05
    combined ocean and Air in the same sort
  • 00:08:10
    of conversation there were atmospheric
  • 00:08:13
    scientists there were Oceanic scientists
  • 00:08:16
    and the full system the full the full um
  • 00:08:20
    organic system of all these interplaying
  • 00:08:23
    parts it seemed to me only came of age a
  • 00:08:26
    little later when uh computer models
  • 00:08:29
    started having something to say about it
  • 00:08:31
    and so now I what I what I POs to you is
  • 00:08:35
    now what's under Noah purview is also
  • 00:08:39
    space weather like what the sun is doing
  • 00:08:42
    so these these look like land grabs to
  • 00:08:44
    me we're
  • 00:08:46
    spacecraft you started out with just the
  • 00:08:48
    ocean in there now you want like the
  • 00:08:51
    solar system the universe we're going
  • 00:08:53
    for the universe going for yeah Neil
  • 00:08:55
    you're exactly right and it is an earth
  • 00:08:58
    system and the best place to see that is
  • 00:09:01
    in how hurricanes form and grow and move
  • 00:09:05
    you can't predict that without a good
  • 00:09:08
    understanding of the ocean and the
  • 00:09:09
    atmosphere and you know the best example
  • 00:09:12
    on that one was uh Hurricane Katrina
  • 00:09:14
    which as you may remember intensified
  • 00:09:17
    really quickly before it made landfall
  • 00:09:19
    around New Orleans and we now looking
  • 00:09:22
    back no we could have predicted that
  • 00:09:24
    better if we'd had better data from the
  • 00:09:27
    ocean in the Gulf of Mexico
  • 00:09:30
    happen today you would have predicted it
  • 00:09:32
    better than we were able to do back in
  • 00:09:34
    2005 yeah certainly the what we call the
  • 00:09:36
    rapid intensification of the hurricane
  • 00:09:39
    as it made landfall and that's because
  • 00:09:41
    we would look at the whole ocean not
  • 00:09:43
    just the surface of the ocean to put the
  • 00:09:45
    data yeah you guys you guys I mean
  • 00:09:48
    you're not you're being humble Because
  • 00:09:50
    You're Not tooting your own horn about
  • 00:09:52
    this last uh huge storm that we just
  • 00:09:56
    experienced um where the rapid int
  • 00:09:59
    ification was predicted and did happen
  • 00:10:02
    indeed um uh due primarily to the amount
  • 00:10:07
    of moisture that was being held in the
  • 00:10:09
    land mass uh where the storm was uh
  • 00:10:12
    going to Traverse so you know you should
  • 00:10:15
    you should say yeah we didn't do it back
  • 00:10:17
    in 2005 but take this we did it
  • 00:10:20
    now I'm sorry I don't think I don't
  • 00:10:22
    think he speaks that way
  • 00:10:23
    Chu I love the way you said that though
  • 00:10:25
    Chuck because right I that was Rick
  • 00:10:28
    catch us up on on this thing with land
  • 00:10:30
    water and how that is not neutral as as
  • 00:10:35
    a
  • 00:10:36
    forcing as a forcing factor on a
  • 00:10:38
    hurricane that makes landfall what I
  • 00:10:40
    understood there was a recent hurricane
  • 00:10:42
    that saturated the landscape the the
  • 00:10:45
    land and so now when a hurricane makes
  • 00:10:48
    landfall there is sort of latent heat
  • 00:10:51
    available to it from the water that is
  • 00:10:56
    in the saturated ground or because
  • 00:10:58
    normally hurricane would would weaken as
  • 00:11:01
    it goes over the land right yeah it's
  • 00:11:03
    all about temperatures right and so we
  • 00:11:05
    know the temperatures of the ocean in
  • 00:11:07
    this case the Gulf of Mexico are going
  • 00:11:08
    up know the temperatures in the
  • 00:11:10
    atmosphere are going up which means that
  • 00:11:12
    those storms can hold more water and so
  • 00:11:15
    think about it we had hurricane Harvey
  • 00:11:17
    that hit Houston and it dropped five
  • 00:11:21
    feet five feet of rain when I was a kid
  • 00:11:24
    we didn't talk about feet of rain from
  • 00:11:27
    and so now you look at what hurricane
  • 00:11:29
    Helen just a few weeks ago did
  • 00:11:31
    especially in Western North Carolina and
  • 00:11:33
    the damage was water you're absolutely
  • 00:11:35
    right most people think hurricane so
  • 00:11:36
    it's about winds wind in that case it
  • 00:11:38
    was water but in terms of the forcing
  • 00:11:41
    function on the hurricane itself that
  • 00:11:44
    water that's sort of still had had had
  • 00:11:47
    rendered land masses uh soaked are you
  • 00:11:51
    saying that that does not continue to
  • 00:11:53
    play into the other than the water's got
  • 00:11:56
    nowhere else to go I guess you just get
  • 00:11:58
    yeah well that's basically it it it I
  • 00:12:01
    think it's a combination if you've got
  • 00:12:02
    if you've got soaked uh uh terrain from
  • 00:12:07
    previous precipitation prior to the
  • 00:12:09
    hurricane coming in and that Hurricane's
  • 00:12:11
    got more moisture than it would have
  • 00:12:12
    before Helen was also huge it was a
  • 00:12:15
    massive hurricane it was 500 miles
  • 00:12:19
    across uh and that's that's
  • 00:12:22
    significantly larger than most
  • 00:12:23
    hurricanes so large hurricane warm
  • 00:12:26
    Waters so more moisture available the
  • 00:12:28
    ground was already pretty wet and now
  • 00:12:30
    you're just dumping buckets onto a wet
  • 00:12:32
    sponge so it's going to cause a lot of
  • 00:12:34
    flooding why do I have in my notes that
  • 00:12:35
    you also care about the bottom of the
  • 00:12:37
    ocean like what what what what does that
  • 00:12:40
    do for you well there's a hole in the
  • 00:12:42
    bottom of the
  • 00:12:44
    ocean no there's a plug oh that's right
  • 00:12:47
    yeah yeah the bottom of the ocean is
  • 00:12:49
    important because without a bottom of
  • 00:12:50
    the ocean we wouldn't have an ocean I
  • 00:12:52
    guess okay more important I mean so the
  • 00:12:55
    Topography of the ocean is going to
  • 00:12:57
    drive help Drive uh how the currents uh
  • 00:13:00
    especially in coastal environments where
  • 00:13:02
    the water goes how it flows uh it's
  • 00:13:04
    going to impact things like uh
  • 00:13:07
    accentuated tides in areas where you've
  • 00:13:09
    got extreme changes in topography so why
  • 00:13:12
    is this important especially in the
  • 00:13:13
    context of a hurricane probably one of
  • 00:13:16
    the biggest problems one of the most
  • 00:13:17
    devastating aspects of hurricanes is
  • 00:13:19
    storm surge what happens to the water
  • 00:13:23
    the ocean water when it gets close to
  • 00:13:25
    the shore if the Topography is just
  • 00:13:28
    right you can actually funnel that storm
  • 00:13:30
    surge and you can end up with 12 to 15
  • 00:13:34
    feet that's what they got in Tampa Bay
  • 00:13:35
    when uh hurricane Milton hit yeah and
  • 00:13:37
    and Hurricane Sandy hit New York I mean
  • 00:13:40
    I think it was tropical storm Sandy at
  • 00:13:42
    the point it hit New York but that storm
  • 00:13:44
    surge is what took us out it we actually
  • 00:13:46
    call it superstorm Sandy because it was
  • 00:13:48
    both a tropical cyclone and then there
  • 00:13:49
    was an nor Easter component to it as
  • 00:13:51
    well so it was kind of like the worst of
  • 00:13:53
    all factors combined and yeah you're
  • 00:13:55
    right storm surge yeah I you know I grew
  • 00:13:58
    up in New York and mom was living in an
  • 00:14:00
    apartment that got flooded as a result
  • 00:14:01
    of superstorm sanding uh and we did not
  • 00:14:04
    that's interesting that was what 12
  • 00:14:05
    years ago we didn't have the forecast
  • 00:14:07
    down pat
  • 00:14:19
    yet you know having a front row seat to
  • 00:14:22
    Neil's life over the years and also
  • 00:14:24
    being a parent myself I absolutely love
  • 00:14:26
    that quote as parents there's no greater
  • 00:14:29
    gift we can give to our kids than the
  • 00:14:31
    freedom of curiosity and an eagerness to
  • 00:14:34
    always be learning and that's why we
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    here at Star Talk are honored to have
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    kiwi Co supporting today's episode kiwi
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  • 00:15:56
    let's get back to the show so when did
  • 00:15:58
    you start reaching out and caring about
  • 00:16:00
    what the sun
  • 00:16:01
    does um well we've always had that as
  • 00:16:04
    part of our mission I think it's fair to
  • 00:16:07
    say that I mean obviously the sun has a
  • 00:16:09
    luminosity and an energy but but but it
  • 00:16:13
    at the next level the sun cycles and
  • 00:16:15
    there solar storms and so it's not just
  • 00:16:18
    that there's a star there delivering
  • 00:16:19
    energy to your model there are these
  • 00:16:21
    fluctuations in the energy to the model
  • 00:16:23
    that now you guys seem to car about yeah
  • 00:16:26
    so the the the Sun is a pretty Dynamic
  • 00:16:30
    uh object and uh it goes through these
  • 00:16:33
    Cycles right and we're actually in the
  • 00:16:36
    middle of one of these 11year Cycles it
  • 00:16:37
    started last year and one of the really
  • 00:16:40
    interesting aspects of that is that the
  • 00:16:42
    sun can occasionally actually send out
  • 00:16:46
    these huge huge coronal mass injections
  • 00:16:50
    which are these charged gases plasmas
  • 00:16:52
    that get ejected from the surface of the
  • 00:16:55
    Sun at a speed of about 1 to 2 million
  • 00:16:57
    miles hour uh they are on the sort of
  • 00:17:01
    positive side the the factors that
  • 00:17:02
    create the beautiful Northern Lights the
  • 00:17:04
    Aurora Borealis but a little bit more
  • 00:17:06
    insidiously they also interact with
  • 00:17:08
    navigation systems they interact with
  • 00:17:11
    electrical grids uh they can affect uh
  • 00:17:15
    Power grids uh they can affect uh
  • 00:17:18
    communication systems and so in fact the
  • 00:17:21
    storm that uh erupted in last May May of
  • 00:17:25
    2024 solar storm solar storm the solar
  • 00:17:27
    storm was category what we call G5
  • 00:17:30
    geomagnetic storm 5 highest uh rank
  • 00:17:33
    storm one of the most severe that we've
  • 00:17:35
    seen in decades but you didn't hear
  • 00:17:38
    about it much well I know you did Neil
  • 00:17:40
    but a lot hear about it and and that's
  • 00:17:43
    because we knew it was coming and in
  • 00:17:46
    years past we might not have known it
  • 00:17:48
    was coming and so we could make change
  • 00:17:51
    what kind of changes airplanes could
  • 00:17:53
    change their their roots in order to
  • 00:17:55
    avoid the impact of the solar storm on
  • 00:17:58
    their GPS systems can you see the actual
  • 00:18:01
    discharge as it makes its way here that
  • 00:18:04
    is so cool yes you can and in fact we
  • 00:18:07
    have just launched uh in June of 2024 we
  • 00:18:11
    launched a new satellite it's a weather
  • 00:18:13
    satellite it's the one that you would
  • 00:18:15
    use when you turn on TV and they show
  • 00:18:17
    you the full disc of what the weather
  • 00:18:19
    patterns are in the East Coast or West
  • 00:18:20
    Coast but this one has a compact
  • 00:18:24
    coronagraph oh and that is the tool I'm
  • 00:18:28
    sorry I you guys lost me Neil said oh
  • 00:18:30
    nice you said you said compact
  • 00:18:33
    coronograph like uh you know like I say
  • 00:18:36
    uh my glasses case it's just like my
  • 00:18:39
    glasses case and I'm like okay what is a
  • 00:18:41
    compact coronagraph I got this so one of
  • 00:18:44
    the great inventions of of the recent
  • 00:18:47
    Century has been the ability to create
  • 00:18:50
    an image of the Sun in a telescope as
  • 00:18:53
    though with a set of Optics as though
  • 00:18:56
    the sun had just been eclipsed by the
  • 00:18:59
    moon oh and when the sun gets eclipsed
  • 00:19:01
    by the moon all the bright stuff is
  • 00:19:03
    blotted out and you see the edge you see
  • 00:19:05
    explosions on the edge right you
  • 00:19:07
    remember when we saw the eclipse this
  • 00:19:10
    recent Eclipse when we were stationed up
  • 00:19:13
    in in Vermont uh you saw these along the
  • 00:19:17
    edge there were these little sort of
  • 00:19:18
    prominences sticking out so imagine
  • 00:19:20
    being able to do that at will right
  • 00:19:22
    rather than waiting around for an
  • 00:19:24
    eclipse and so now Rick you say you put
  • 00:19:27
    one of these in orbit that's cool Yeah
  • 00:19:29
    we actually have that one in orbit there
  • 00:19:30
    is another sensor on the Discover
  • 00:19:32
    satellite which is at the L1 the lrange
  • 00:19:35
    one point um the Earth Sun lrange yes
  • 00:19:40
    exactly okay now Chuck don't we have a
  • 00:19:42
    lrange explainer we do for those of you
  • 00:19:45
    who want to uh really go a deep dive on
  • 00:19:48
    lrange points uh we go all all through
  • 00:19:51
    all l12 34 and it's uh really incredible
  • 00:19:56
    um M5 can't leave out M5 uh
  • 00:20:00
    um clearly I was only a pay attention
  • 00:20:02
    for
  • 00:20:05
    four five's important because we're
  • 00:20:08
    really
  • 00:20:09
    good years all gr points are not made
  • 00:20:12
    equal right but if you want to see how
  • 00:20:15
    you can find perfect equilibrium in the
  • 00:20:17
    solar system uh to me that's what lrange
  • 00:20:20
    point represents I love exactly exactly
  • 00:20:22
    so it depends on which two bodies around
  • 00:20:25
    which you're describing the lrange
  • 00:20:26
    points so so Rick this is the Earth Sun
  • 00:20:28
    lrange points is that correct yeah and
  • 00:20:31
    and as you can well describe by having
  • 00:20:34
    multiple views of the Sun from different
  • 00:20:37
    angles that is to say in Earth orbit and
  • 00:20:39
    then at L1 and at L5 we can look at
  • 00:20:42
    basically the whole threedimensional
  • 00:20:44
    character of the sun because not all of
  • 00:20:47
    these coronal mass ejections are
  • 00:20:48
    necessarily aimed at us so we need we we
  • 00:20:52
    care about them all but at Noah We Care
  • 00:20:55
    mostly about the ones that are going to
  • 00:20:56
    be aimed at us and again do the math
  • 00:20:59
    these things travel in about 1 to two
  • 00:21:01
    million miles per hour Sun's 93 million
  • 00:21:05
    miles away so it's a you know a three to
  • 00:21:08
    four day transit that we can give people
  • 00:21:10
    enough lead time to make preparations
  • 00:21:12
    for a major geomagnetic storm so we can
  • 00:21:15
    imagine a future where we have a colony
  • 00:21:16
    on the moon or Mars uh where those
  • 00:21:19
    neither of those objects have shielding
  • 00:21:22
    from this kind of radiation in the way
  • 00:21:24
    we pretty much do here on Earth with our
  • 00:21:27
    atmosphere and our ozone but they don't
  • 00:21:29
    so presumably they would be deeply
  • 00:21:32
    connected Into Your Capacity to
  • 00:21:36
    predict because then everyone would know
  • 00:21:37
    to run underground or run behind
  • 00:21:39
    shelters this sort of thing so so can I
  • 00:21:42
    ask okay this might be a silly question
  • 00:21:43
    but I'm just asking um so with all your
  • 00:21:46
    equipment because Noah is really a space
  • 00:21:50
    organization I mean you're looking back
  • 00:21:52
    at Earth but all your stuff's up in the
  • 00:21:55
    space no no they got buoys and stuff
  • 00:21:58
    that's true that's true I take it back I
  • 00:22:00
    take it back okay you're absolutely
  • 00:22:02
    right um but when you when you talk
  • 00:22:05
    about these ejections do you move that
  • 00:22:09
    stuff or is that stuff just hardened or
  • 00:22:11
    what do you because I mean radiations
  • 00:22:14
    has got to be like the most damaging
  • 00:22:15
    thing for equipment right yeah you're
  • 00:22:18
    not going to be able to move this I mean
  • 00:22:19
    this is immense amounts of energy but
  • 00:22:21
    what you can do is it's it actually it's
  • 00:22:23
    really similar to our discussion on
  • 00:22:25
    hurricanes we're not going to be able to
  • 00:22:27
    move hurricanes and spite of what some
  • 00:22:29
    people may think but we can make the
  • 00:22:31
    predictions work and we can tell people
  • 00:22:34
    this one's bearing down here on Tampa
  • 00:22:36
    plus or minus 20 miles and you got two
  • 00:22:39
    days to evacuate same thing with space
  • 00:22:42
    weather if we get the picture especially
  • 00:22:44
    if you've got multiple views we can say
  • 00:22:47
    this is going to hit pretty hard in the
  • 00:22:49
    northern part of Quebec or in Asia and
  • 00:22:53
    therefore folks can make adjustments
  • 00:22:55
    they have three days they can power down
  • 00:22:58
    their grids they're electrical grids
  • 00:23:00
    they can revor aircraft so they're not
  • 00:23:02
    going to be affected for navigation
  • 00:23:04
    purposes Chuck asked about the the
  • 00:23:06
    satellites that are already in orbit
  • 00:23:08
    they certainly have susceptibility to
  • 00:23:09
    this and you can't just say hey Bank a
  • 00:23:11
    left or hover over Africa until it's
  • 00:23:14
    clear over Asia right you can't do that
  • 00:23:16
    you can't uh we can Shield some of these
  • 00:23:19
    to a certain extent but what we can do
  • 00:23:21
    is again if we know it's coming we can
  • 00:23:23
    make accommodations with regard to power
  • 00:23:25
    or use another satellite uh to cover for
  • 00:23:28
    the one that most be mo might be most
  • 00:23:30
    vulnerable the sacrifice
  • 00:23:33
    satellite yeah no we don't do that we
  • 00:23:35
    don't put them
  • 00:23:37
    up so there's something called
  • 00:23:39
    unexpected events now I foresee the day
  • 00:23:42
    where no event is unexpected and so no
  • 00:23:46
    one is taken by surprise where are we
  • 00:23:48
    now with regard to Noah's modeling and
  • 00:23:51
    other agencies modeling and things just
  • 00:23:54
    happening taking Everyone by surprise
  • 00:23:56
    there's a really interesting aspect to
  • 00:23:58
    your your question Neil because um
  • 00:24:01
    there's a there's a famous story in
  • 00:24:03
    meteorology it's called Isaac storm in
  • 00:24:05
    fact Eric Larson wrote a great book on
  • 00:24:07
    Isaac storm and it was a hurricane that
  • 00:24:09
    hit galvaston in the year 1900 for the
  • 00:24:12
    folks in galvaston in 1900 that storm
  • 00:24:14
    was an unexpected storm they didn't
  • 00:24:16
    expect it to hit now obviously there's
  • 00:24:18
    never going to be another Isaac storm
  • 00:24:20
    we've improved that there are things
  • 00:24:22
    though that happen uh on much shorter
  • 00:24:26
    time scales and so I would say
  • 00:24:29
    they may not be unexpected like
  • 00:24:31
    tornadoes U but the time that we're able
  • 00:24:34
    to give people to react to them and is
  • 00:24:37
    shorter so right now for tornadoes we're
  • 00:24:40
    looking at an average lead time on most
  • 00:24:42
    tornadoes of about 12 minutes whoa about
  • 00:24:46
    50 years ago the lead time on tornadoes
  • 00:24:50
    was minus five
  • 00:24:52
    minutes okay that doesn't even make any
  • 00:24:55
    sense I'm just saying when the tornadoes
  • 00:24:58
    over I already know there was a tornado
  • 00:25:01
    that's right that's right yeah there is
  • 00:25:05
    something wrong with that picture um
  • 00:25:07
    wait just just to clarify you're not
  • 00:25:08
    talking about the prediction of the
  • 00:25:11
    existence of a tornado you're talking
  • 00:25:12
    about the path a tornado will take once
  • 00:25:14
    it forms yeah yeah the path it's going
  • 00:25:16
    to take and how intense it's going to be
  • 00:25:18
    gotcha yeah and because there are like
  • 00:25:21
    like with hurricanes tornadoes have
  • 00:25:22
    classifications by intensity we have the
  • 00:25:25
    extended fueta scale for tornadoes one
  • 00:25:27
    through five uh and it's the same kind
  • 00:25:29
    of thing so right now we can say we
  • 00:25:32
    think this tornado or this uh this
  • 00:25:36
    aggregation of tornadoes is going to
  • 00:25:38
    take this path and it's probably going
  • 00:25:39
    to be an ef2 and it's probably going to
  • 00:25:41
    hit over here in 15 minutes by the way
  • 00:25:44
    12 minutes 15 minutes is enough time to
  • 00:25:47
    get out of the way of a tornado or or to
  • 00:25:49
    go or underground yeah underground yeah
  • 00:25:52
    so that's an that's incredible how do
  • 00:25:55
    you feel I mean do we have deep resonant
  • 00:25:59
    emotions uh when for example you go to
  • 00:26:02
    see a a movie that you know stormchasers
  • 00:26:06
    movie you know yeah Twisters Twisters
  • 00:26:10
    how how do you let's commiserate
  • 00:26:12
    together here now uh how do you feel
  • 00:26:15
    when you see these films how how much
  • 00:26:16
    effort do they call you and say help us
  • 00:26:18
    get this right or they just make stuff
  • 00:26:20
    up and and and and is it true that in a
  • 00:26:22
    tornado I can actually call a cow as it
  • 00:26:26
    comes by and it goes
  • 00:26:29
    and then
  • 00:26:31
    disappears of course Chuck that's a
  • 00:26:33
    stupid question everybody knows
  • 00:26:36
    that uh we are not using bow Vine
  • 00:26:38
    sensors and tornadoes uh for our
  • 00:26:41
    forecast systems yet
  • 00:26:43
    so the cow could just totally hook you
  • 00:26:46
    up on
  • 00:26:47
    that what is your if mind if I ask what
  • 00:26:50
    is Noah's annual budget uh it's just
  • 00:26:52
    under s billion would you say that
  • 00:26:55
    Noah's effort saves people and lives and
  • 00:27:00
    on a level far beyond the value of that
  • 00:27:02
    budget well I I mean we talk about
  • 00:27:05
    answer is yes Rick you're the head of
  • 00:27:06
    the
  • 00:27:07
    organization for Christ's sake man NE
  • 00:27:11
    answer is yes right thank you
  • 00:27:13
    Rick the uh we talk about lives and
  • 00:27:16
    livelihoods and and Lifestyles so
  • 00:27:18
    property and lives um but certainly
  • 00:27:20
    lives and the only reason I HED is
  • 00:27:23
    because I can give you the best forecast
  • 00:27:25
    in the world I can give you plenty of
  • 00:27:27
    lead time
  • 00:27:28
    but it's your decision to evacuate it's
  • 00:27:31
    your decision to take action and we
  • 00:27:34
    can't control that so we like to think
  • 00:27:37
    that two things one the quality of our
  • 00:27:39
    forecast is getting better and the
  • 00:27:40
    second is the trust by the public in
  • 00:27:43
    that forecast uh and the on onscreen
  • 00:27:46
    meteorologists and emergency managers is
  • 00:27:49
    high enough so that when we say you
  • 00:27:51
    better Evacuate the storm is coming your
  • 00:27:53
    way people actually take that action but
  • 00:27:55
    there's no question I mean I talked to
  • 00:27:56
    you about the the storm in galston in
  • 00:27:59
    the year um 1900 and I think the number
  • 00:28:03
    was something like 10,000 lives were
  • 00:28:05
    lost in that storm wow my that's not
  • 00:28:07
    ever going to happen again in this
  • 00:28:09
    country ever and that's because of the
  • 00:28:12
    quality of the forecast and our ability
  • 00:28:14
    to have the trusted people to make these
  • 00:28:16
    decisions so yeah absolutely we're
  • 00:28:17
    saving and you also affect uh forecast
  • 00:28:20
    for Fisheries right and other sort of
  • 00:28:23
    coastal management of marine food is
  • 00:28:27
    that a so we do Marine forecasts as part
  • 00:28:30
    of what the weather service does and we
  • 00:28:32
    also have responsibility for managing
  • 00:28:34
    marine fisheries uh which means we're
  • 00:28:36
    the ones who do the stock assessments of
  • 00:28:39
    how many fish are out there how healthy
  • 00:28:42
    are the fish how healthy are the
  • 00:28:43
    populations and establish regulations
  • 00:28:46
    for how to sustainably fish for these uh
  • 00:28:52
    uh these fish and maintain a strong
  • 00:28:53
    Seafood economy again we're part of the
  • 00:28:55
    Department of Commerce so it's an
  • 00:28:56
    important economic consideration so with
  • 00:28:59
    respect to what you just said uh what's
  • 00:29:02
    your relationship with other countries I
  • 00:29:04
    know we're a National Organization but
  • 00:29:06
    do you have international affiliations
  • 00:29:08
    like for the typhoon that's raging in
  • 00:29:11
    Taiwan right now or when it comes to
  • 00:29:13
    sustain sustainability of food supply
  • 00:29:15
    like working with China who just doesn't
  • 00:29:17
    give a damn
  • 00:29:20
    so but but what what's your role there
  • 00:29:22
    we we care about our Coastline and our
  • 00:29:24
    and our uh our Oceanic uh prop Oceanic
  • 00:29:29
    property line if you will but if you're
  • 00:29:31
    studying the entire Earth with regard to
  • 00:29:33
    climate do you share your data with
  • 00:29:35
    other countries and are they responsive
  • 00:29:37
    and what's your relationship yeah yeah
  • 00:29:40
    we absolutely can't do our job without
  • 00:29:42
    strong International collaboration and
  • 00:29:44
    that takes a couple of different forms
  • 00:29:45
    there are worldwide organizations as the
  • 00:29:48
    World Meteorological organization of
  • 00:29:50
    which we are a member and in fact the
  • 00:29:52
    head of our national weather service is
  • 00:29:54
    the US Representative to the wo uh and
  • 00:29:57
    it's these are organizations that
  • 00:29:59
    establish uh policies with regard to
  • 00:30:01
    data and yeah all of our Noah data is
  • 00:30:04
    publicly available uh and we use that as
  • 00:30:07
    if you will lever to say to other
  • 00:30:09
    nations hey we're giving you ours why
  • 00:30:11
    don't you give us yours as well so
  • 00:30:13
    there's a lot of collaboration for data
  • 00:30:15
    and they recognize they need our data to
  • 00:30:18
    improve their forecast we need they
  • 00:30:20
    their data to improve our forecast and
  • 00:30:22
    when you start talking about Fisheries
  • 00:30:23
    yeah there's a lot of international
  • 00:30:24
    agreements because a lot of the fish are
  • 00:30:27
    in open ocean Waters and there have to
  • 00:30:28
    be
  • 00:30:29
    agreements and and the Agreements are
  • 00:30:31
    not just about hey how much fish can we
  • 00:30:34
    take sustainably that is to say to allow
  • 00:30:37
    the population of the fish to stay stay
  • 00:30:39
    uh uh healthy but also to try to um be
  • 00:30:45
    the Protectors of those uh Fisheries by
  • 00:30:50
    um enforcing laws against illegal
  • 00:30:52
    unreported and unregulated Fisheries
  • 00:30:55
    what we call iuu fishing uh so that Rees
  • 00:30:58
    a lot of international cooperation
  • 00:30:59
    because you know what it's a big big
  • 00:31:01
    ocean you know it's not the same thing
  • 00:31:04
    but it's it's similar in some ways the
  • 00:31:07
    Artemis Accord which has recently been
  • 00:31:09
    signed by upwards of 30 countries or so
  • 00:31:12
    is a it's a new agreement about conduct
  • 00:31:15
    in space and space exploration signed by
  • 00:31:18
    space fairing Nations it's an active
  • 00:31:21
    Accord that's going on right now and so
  • 00:31:24
    for example if you send a Rover to the
  • 00:31:26
    moon or Mars and you learn something
  • 00:31:28
    about it you would share that with other
  • 00:31:30
    countries so if they send a Rover they
  • 00:31:32
    don't have to make the same mistakes you
  • 00:31:34
    did or that you can collaborate so uh
  • 00:31:37
    it's interesting how the
  • 00:31:38
    internationality of what you do uh
  • 00:31:41
    certainly uh would would contain tap
  • 00:31:44
    rots for doing things cooperatively in
  • 00:31:46
    space there there's yeah and I think
  • 00:31:49
    there's a lot of commonality there and
  • 00:31:51
    the I thought that was going through
  • 00:31:52
    your mind my mind as you were talking
  • 00:31:54
    about the emis Accords Neil is that we
  • 00:31:58
    to have similar kind of agreements for
  • 00:31:59
    making observations in the ocean there's
  • 00:32:03
    no one nation that can cover all of the
  • 00:32:04
    ocean and so uh we have a a major
  • 00:32:07
    program it's called Argo and it's
  • 00:32:08
    basically these uh robots that go
  • 00:32:11
    throughout the ocean and they go up and
  • 00:32:13
    down and all over and they drift around
  • 00:32:15
    and we by International agreement have
  • 00:32:18
    said let's all agree to what these
  • 00:32:20
    robots these floats should look like
  • 00:32:23
    let's all build them to these specs
  • 00:32:26
    let's put all of these things out so
  • 00:32:28
    there's about four or 5 thousand of
  • 00:32:30
    these out there now and they've been
  • 00:32:31
    floating around for decades and let's
  • 00:32:34
    all share the data in a common data
  • 00:32:36
    repository these are those buoys that I
  • 00:32:38
    was thinking about is that right these
  • 00:32:40
    actually dive down so they don't spend a
  • 00:32:42
    lot of time at the surface they they
  • 00:32:44
    float around and then they ascend to
  • 00:32:47
    about 1,000 or 2,000 meters depth they
  • 00:32:50
    collect temperature solinity other kind
  • 00:32:54
    of variables are measured they'll drift
  • 00:32:57
    for about 10 days days out of 2,000
  • 00:32:59
    meters then come back to the surface
  • 00:33:01
    transmit their data through satellite
  • 00:33:03
    Communications to a central repository
  • 00:33:05
    and then dive back down again and start
  • 00:33:07
    you know rinse and repeat basically you
  • 00:33:08
    know that's badass I just have to say is
  • 00:33:11
    yeah now you know there are some Nations
  • 00:33:13
    though they probably got a back door
  • 00:33:15
    like if you find oil don't tell anybody
  • 00:33:20
    else hey Star Talk fans I don't know if
  • 00:33:23
    you know this but the audio version of
  • 00:33:26
    the podcast actually posts a week in
  • 00:33:29
    advance of the video version and you can
  • 00:33:33
    get that in Spotify and apple podcast
  • 00:33:36
    and most other podcast Outlets that are
  • 00:33:39
    out there multiple ways to ingest all
  • 00:33:43
    that is Cosmic on Star talk let's take
  • 00:33:45
    up this subject of climate change for
  • 00:33:47
    the moment so we know I is it the is the
  • 00:33:52
    fraction a third so for every x amount
  • 00:33:55
    of CO2 that goes into the atmosphere
  • 00:33:57
    does the ocean uptake about a third of
  • 00:33:59
    that or some fraction of it yeah yeah
  • 00:34:02
    there's a variety of estimates but
  • 00:34:04
    that's that's pretty close maybe even
  • 00:34:06
    closer to a half but definitely a large
  • 00:34:08
    percentage okay so and the that means
  • 00:34:10
    the dissolved CO2 in the ocean is in
  • 00:34:14
    some form of partial pressure
  • 00:34:17
    equilibrium with the CO2 in the air so
  • 00:34:20
    if we were to stop CO2 production or
  • 00:34:23
    even introduce CO2 scrubbers in the
  • 00:34:26
    atmosphere we will do this but then
  • 00:34:30
    there's less CO2 pressing down on the
  • 00:34:32
    ocean and the ocean says I have to make
  • 00:34:34
    this in make equilibrium out of this and
  • 00:34:36
    it'll start releasing and it gives it up
  • 00:34:38
    to the atmosphere gives it up to the
  • 00:34:39
    atmosphere so is it true that we would
  • 00:34:43
    not see the immediate effects for quite
  • 00:34:46
    some time perhaps decades even if we
  • 00:34:49
    stopped all fossil fuel burning today
  • 00:34:51
    the short answer to your question Neil
  • 00:34:53
    is yes people talk about the flywheel in
  • 00:34:55
    the carbon cycle uh you could stop the
  • 00:34:59
    introduction uh interesting you raised
  • 00:35:01
    the question of actually actively
  • 00:35:02
    removing carbon dioxide from the
  • 00:35:04
    atmosphere which would accelerate the
  • 00:35:07
    the diminishment of excess carbon
  • 00:35:09
    dioxide in the atmosphere but it would
  • 00:35:11
    still be yeah you're right decades
  • 00:35:13
    before we would see the ocean responding
  • 00:35:15
    in Kind part of the uh the problem uh
  • 00:35:20
    with the dynamic you described is that
  • 00:35:23
    the increased carbon dioxide dissolution
  • 00:35:25
    in the ocean manifests as ocean
  • 00:35:27
    acidification
  • 00:35:28
    right pH thing going on okay of course
  • 00:35:32
    yeah and so in that case it's not simply
  • 00:35:35
    a matter of it's not like opening up a
  • 00:35:37
    bottle of of of Coca-Cola and having all
  • 00:35:40
    the CO2 uh go back out of the liquid
  • 00:35:43
    into the atmosphere a lot of this CO2
  • 00:35:46
    has become part of the carbon cycle
  • 00:35:48
    within the atmosphere in in including
  • 00:35:51
    with a decrease in PH and increased
  • 00:35:54
    acidification and that's where you see
  • 00:35:56
    the uh complete bleaching of coral reefs
  • 00:35:59
    and the death of of of these coral reefs
  • 00:36:02
    which by the way are their in entire
  • 00:36:04
    ecosystems in themselves yeah yeah
  • 00:36:07
    that's part of it uh in fact the the
  • 00:36:10
    major contribution to Coral bleaching is
  • 00:36:12
    actually the temperature temperature the
  • 00:36:13
    warming of the water but because of the
  • 00:36:16
    chemical makeup of most corals The
  • 00:36:19
    increased acidification uh is very
  • 00:36:21
    erosive gross of vent corls so when
  • 00:36:24
    people talk about terraforming Mars and
  • 00:36:25
    moving there
  • 00:36:28
    I'm sorry that was just an excellent
  • 00:36:30
    segue Earth be uh my rebuttal to that
  • 00:36:34
    it's not rebuttal my comment on it is if
  • 00:36:37
    we have the power of geoengineering to
  • 00:36:39
    turn Mars into Earth then we have the
  • 00:36:42
    power of geoengineering to turn Earth
  • 00:36:43
    back into Earth you wouldn't need Mars
  • 00:36:46
    right yeah to do that and so that's kind
  • 00:36:48
    of how I how I view that so Rick this
  • 00:36:51
    past hurricane season
  • 00:36:53
    the was it just my imagination or were
  • 00:36:56
    there more category lives kicking in
  • 00:36:59
    than usual and if so is that the new
  • 00:37:04
    normal and what what what is the new
  • 00:37:06
    normal right now today I we're recording
  • 00:37:10
    this in October it's like 75 degrees
  • 00:37:13
    outside uh when it says unseasonably
  • 00:37:15
    warm temperatures today will that soon
  • 00:37:18
    become seasonably
  • 00:37:20
    warm that's unseasonable becomes
  • 00:37:23
    seasonable because that's the new normal
  • 00:37:26
    and will we need a category six because
  • 00:37:28
    these category fives keep getting bigger
  • 00:37:30
    and bigger and it keep saying category
  • 00:37:32
    five but it's a storm we've never seen
  • 00:37:34
    before when are we getting to category
  • 00:37:36
    six Chuck stop poking the bear what
  • 00:37:39
    you're doing I love that question Chuck
  • 00:37:42
    and I will get to it in a minute I but
  • 00:37:45
    what I I do want to say is um yeah I
  • 00:37:48
    keep thinking about uh the New York
  • 00:37:50
    Times Colonist Tom Freedman who said
  • 00:37:52
    it's not global warming it's Global
  • 00:37:54
    weirding weirding and you know and if
  • 00:37:57
    think about it Neil we don't talk global
  • 00:37:59
    warming anymore we talk climate change
  • 00:38:02
    and that's because it manifests in so
  • 00:38:05
    many many different ways and and
  • 00:38:08
    fundamentally fundamentally what we're
  • 00:38:10
    doing is we're putting more energy into
  • 00:38:11
    the system because of the greenhouse
  • 00:38:14
    effect there's more energy coming into
  • 00:38:16
    the system so your question about uh
  • 00:38:18
    what's going to be seasonable or not
  • 00:38:20
    seasonable what are the storms look like
  • 00:38:22
    things are going to be different uh this
  • 00:38:25
    year for example we predicted an above
  • 00:38:29
    normal uh hurricane season and it's
  • 00:38:32
    turning out it is above normal by
  • 00:38:35
    certain measures is that going to become
  • 00:38:37
    The New Normal well I think just logic
  • 00:38:39
    suggests that we can probably see a lot
  • 00:38:41
    more hurricane activity in the future in
  • 00:38:44
    terms of the intensity of storms how
  • 00:38:45
    much water they have with them that sort
  • 00:38:47
    of thing which gets to Chuck's comment
  • 00:38:50
    and that is you know my take is it's not
  • 00:38:52
    about do we need another category a
  • 00:38:55
    category six in the saffer Simpson scale
  • 00:38:57
    want you to name it after him a a Chuck
  • 00:39:00
    hurricane is a category six hurricane
  • 00:39:02
    well there's something wrong with
  • 00:39:03
    calling something a nice hurricane
  • 00:39:05
    that's the no not we'll call it not so
  • 00:39:07
    nice not so nice no you leave out his
  • 00:39:09
    last name just called the Chuck
  • 00:39:11
    hurricane the Chuck
  • 00:39:12
    hurricane what we really need in that
  • 00:39:15
    regard is uh to expand the focus because
  • 00:39:18
    you know the the saffer Simpson scale is
  • 00:39:20
    really a measure of of wind right uh how
  • 00:39:23
    strong are the winds and you see that
  • 00:39:24
    every time hey the winds have just
  • 00:39:26
    gotten to 130 M miles an hour so now
  • 00:39:28
    it's a cat war that kind of thing but
  • 00:39:31
    when you look at what these hurricanes
  • 00:39:33
    are doing we're looking at impacts of
  • 00:39:35
    storm surge I talked about the volumes
  • 00:39:37
    of water from hurricanes like like
  • 00:39:39
    Harvey years ago we need people to
  • 00:39:41
    understand that we should be looking at
  • 00:39:42
    more than just what the peak wind is
  • 00:39:45
    because you could have a cat five with
  • 00:39:47
    really strong 170 m hour winds but it
  • 00:39:50
    may not have the impact that a cat 3 has
  • 00:39:54
    with a large volume of water like
  • 00:39:56
    hurricane h
  • 00:39:58
    we find way for people the full me of
  • 00:40:01
    what the hurricanes are what they look
  • 00:40:03
    and what their imps going to be and let
  • 00:40:05
    me toot your horn for a moment here in
  • 00:40:07
    the
  • 00:40:08
    1989 sequel to Back to the Future titled
  • 00:40:11
    Back to the Future Part Two uh they went
  • 00:40:14
    into the future the year
  • 00:40:17
    2015 and so we're watching this movie in
  • 00:40:20
    1989 and they're they are Imagining the
  • 00:40:23
    year 2015 and there's a point where
  • 00:40:26
    Marty and and
  • 00:40:28
    and Doc get out of the car and Doc puts
  • 00:40:32
    up an umbrella and Marty says what are
  • 00:40:34
    you doing he says oh this is the future
  • 00:40:37
    weather forecasting is now we know the
  • 00:40:39
    exact minute it's going to start to rain
  • 00:40:41
    and right in that instant it starts to
  • 00:40:42
    rain and it stops ready stops and then
  • 00:40:45
    it stops and he puts the umbrella away
  • 00:40:47
    we're not exactly there but of course on
  • 00:40:50
    our smartphones it'll show you when the
  • 00:40:53
    rain is going to begin where you are and
  • 00:40:54
    where it's end that's what I'm saying
  • 00:40:57
    that's true I never even thought of that
  • 00:40:59
    but it's it gives you the time of day
  • 00:41:01
    like 3 p.m. starts yeah in your spot and
  • 00:41:04
    and it tells you how much and how
  • 00:41:05
    intense and Chuck when we were growing
  • 00:41:07
    up it was like all you really want to
  • 00:41:10
    know what what might it rain tomorrow
  • 00:41:12
    because you have a and then they give
  • 00:41:14
    you a 50% chance which means they know
  • 00:41:16
    absolutely nothing right your
  • 00:41:18
    grandmother knew more my badis is acting
  • 00:41:20
    up my shoulder I tell you baby it's
  • 00:41:23
    going to rain tomor my shoulder how for
  • 00:41:26
    all you know Noah's got Grandma's in the
  • 00:41:27
    back
  • 00:41:28
    room yeah
  • 00:41:30
    right e how's your knee I tell you I
  • 00:41:34
    tell you it's going to rain and eel
  • 00:41:36
    predicts the Hurricanes
  • 00:41:38
    exactly well you know it's interesting
  • 00:41:40
    because I was gonna say Neil that yeah I
  • 00:41:42
    do have a couple apps on my phone in
  • 00:41:44
    fact and I use it for just that okay you
  • 00:41:46
    know should we have that picnic now or
  • 00:41:48
    should we wait an hour that kind of
  • 00:41:50
    thing and that's less about the
  • 00:41:51
    prediction and more about the
  • 00:41:53
    observations and so the The Radars that
  • 00:41:56
    we've got the satellites have got so
  • 00:41:57
    much resolution right now that you can
  • 00:41:59
    start doing that you can right within an
  • 00:42:01
    hour or two you can say hey this storm I
  • 00:42:04
    mean I use it all the time when I'm when
  • 00:42:06
    I'm walking my dog I'm saying all right
  • 00:42:08
    should I do it now or should I wait an
  • 00:42:09
    hour so you're say you're saying that's
  • 00:42:11
    because we have real-time observation of
  • 00:42:13
    what's exactly exactly yeah yeah and we
  • 00:42:16
    can uh and tornadoes are a really good
  • 00:42:19
    example you know we've gotten really
  • 00:42:20
    good at observing tornadoes using some
  • 00:42:23
    of the new sophisticated applications we
  • 00:42:26
    use something called dual polarization
  • 00:42:28
    on our weather radars which is in the
  • 00:42:30
    old Radars it was basically just send
  • 00:42:33
    out a signal and see what comes back and
  • 00:42:35
    now we can start manipulating the signal
  • 00:42:38
    looking at the polarization of the
  • 00:42:39
    signal to determine uh is that rain is
  • 00:42:42
    it sleet is it snow and get such good
  • 00:42:46
    resolution that we can say yeah it's
  • 00:42:49
    sleet but we know the temperature two
  • 00:42:52
    miles away is warmer and we can see how
  • 00:42:54
    fast it's coming so in an hour it's
  • 00:42:57
    going to be rain over
  • 00:42:59
    here okay so cool man we actually fly
  • 00:43:02
    through the hurricanes and we've been
  • 00:43:03
    doing that for quite a while we have uh
  • 00:43:06
    two actually more than that we have at
  • 00:43:09
    least three airplanes that we use to fly
  • 00:43:11
    through or over the Hurricanes that's
  • 00:43:14
    the right stuff right there want talk
  • 00:43:17
    right stuff man and I've done that once
  • 00:43:19
    I did it once with our team who you got
  • 00:43:21
    piss off to get that
  • 00:43:24
    job but all fair is Rick if I I I some
  • 00:43:27
    of the math on this if you're standing
  • 00:43:29
    there on stationary Earth and 170 mph
  • 00:43:32
    wind is coming by you that that's going
  • 00:43:34
    to Tumble buses and trucks and the cow
  • 00:43:37
    of course will fly by however um an
  • 00:43:41
    airplane in open air flies 500 600 miles
  • 00:43:45
    an hour way faster than the air in a
  • 00:43:47
    hurricane so is it not as dangerous for
  • 00:43:51
    an airplane as you might otherwise think
  • 00:43:54
    yeah I I'm going to be the first to tell
  • 00:43:56
    you it is a d dangerous thing to do but
  • 00:43:58
    our crews are real Aces they are amazing
  • 00:44:02
    professionals and the equipment that we
  • 00:44:03
    fly we actually fly 50-year-old
  • 00:44:06
    airplanes but we're scheduled to buy
  • 00:44:08
    some brand new ones here soon and we fly
  • 00:44:11
    uh Navy p3s the same airplanes that the
  • 00:44:14
    Navy used to use to find submarines and
  • 00:44:17
    here's the kicker that we fly them high
  • 00:44:19
    enough through the hurricane that yeah
  • 00:44:21
    when you go through the eyewall the
  • 00:44:23
    hurricane where there's extraordinary
  • 00:44:25
    vertical uh wind currents you're going
  • 00:44:28
    to go through several thousand feet of
  • 00:44:31
    uh uh elevation change if you did that
  • 00:44:34
    on a commercial flight to Cleveland uh
  • 00:44:37
    you'd have a real problem and you'd be
  • 00:44:38
    sending a complaint to the airline G to
  • 00:44:40
    be a lot of uh vouchers giving out at
  • 00:44:43
    the end of that flight and and we do it
  • 00:44:46
    repeatedly we'll fly we'll do like a a a
  • 00:44:49
    figure four pattern through the
  • 00:44:50
    hurricane two or three times and then
  • 00:44:53
    the other really cool thing though is we
  • 00:44:54
    don't just fly those aircraft through
  • 00:44:57
    the Hurricanes at say 8 10,000 ft we
  • 00:45:00
    also drop drones from the airplanes so
  • 00:45:04
    that they those drones can then fly at
  • 00:45:07
    the lower altitudes and get all the data
  • 00:45:09
    we need so you know when you talked
  • 00:45:12
    about not just Jo writing you're getting
  • 00:45:13
    data at every turn oh we're getting data
  • 00:45:16
    up the Wu real time it's going back to
  • 00:45:18
    the National Hurricane Center they are
  • 00:45:19
    assimilating those data into the
  • 00:45:21
    predictive models and because of those
  • 00:45:23
    flights the track and intensity
  • 00:45:25
    forecasts have improved by 10 15 20% so
  • 00:45:29
    that real-time message to the guy on the
  • 00:45:30
    beach who says I don't know if I should
  • 00:45:32
    evacuate or not uh has gotten so much
  • 00:45:34
    better look at the look at the tracks
  • 00:45:36
    from Hurricane Milton you saw that two
  • 00:45:38
    three days out we were saying it's gonna
  • 00:45:39
    hit Tampa St Pete and we were spot on y
  • 00:45:42
    they were totally tight so Rick as a
  • 00:45:45
    weather phenomena around the world even
  • 00:45:48
    if it's just simply higher temperatures
  • 00:45:50
    than ever before uh whatever is the
  • 00:45:53
    phenomenon that's stretching the limits
  • 00:45:57
    of what might have been models that were
  • 00:46:00
    comfortably contained within certain
  • 00:46:02
    parameters every time there's an
  • 00:46:04
    unprecedented
  • 00:46:05
    event uh that you didn't predict what is
  • 00:46:09
    what do you have to do with your models
  • 00:46:11
    what what's what's the next step here
  • 00:46:14
    yeah that's a a great question
  • 00:46:16
    especially if you kind of extend it and
  • 00:46:17
    say how does something like AI or
  • 00:46:20
    machine learning artificial intelligence
  • 00:46:21
    and machine learning fit in here um and
  • 00:46:24
    these uh extraordinary events and I
  • 00:46:27
    think some of the heat waves we've seen
  • 00:46:28
    some of the droughts we've seen are
  • 00:46:30
    examples uh they end up providing an
  • 00:46:34
    incredible volume of new data and our
  • 00:46:37
    artificial intelligence applications
  • 00:46:40
    depend critically on what we call
  • 00:46:42
    training data so the data from what has
  • 00:46:45
    happened in the past being used as
  • 00:46:47
    training for the models of the future so
  • 00:46:50
    I would argue when we don't fully
  • 00:46:54
    characterize a particular event with our
  • 00:46:56
    forecast
  • 00:46:57
    but we are able to collect all the data
  • 00:46:59
    from that event we are by definition
  • 00:47:01
    improving our ability to use AI
  • 00:47:03
    techniques machine learning techniques
  • 00:47:05
    except by definition your AI That's
  • 00:47:07
    mining the data will not have data that
  • 00:47:12
    it has never seen that is yet to see
  • 00:47:14
    which is the argument for making sure we
  • 00:47:17
    fully measure and characterize these
  • 00:47:19
    extreme events and so a lot of our
  • 00:47:22
    investment at Noah is building the
  • 00:47:25
    systems that provide uh much more
  • 00:47:27
    intense higher temporal resolution in
  • 00:47:30
    the data for things like extreme
  • 00:47:33
    precipitation one of the main things
  • 00:47:35
    we're trying to do right now it's a
  • 00:47:36
    clarify temporal resolution you can
  • 00:47:38
    think of spatial resolution you know how
  • 00:47:40
    much detail do you have from A to B to
  • 00:47:42
    see in location but temporal resolution
  • 00:47:45
    would be what's happening this hour this
  • 00:47:47
    minute this second and so it's a
  • 00:47:50
    resolution over time in case people were
  • 00:47:51
    wondering everybody wants to know what's
  • 00:47:53
    happening in their neighborhood right
  • 00:47:54
    and a lot of
  • 00:47:57
    exactly um right and if all I can tell
  • 00:47:59
    you is well we've got data from York
  • 00:48:01
    County for the last uh month that's not
  • 00:48:06
    good enough and so what we're trying to
  • 00:48:07
    do is really increase our ability to
  • 00:48:09
    collect data which means having
  • 00:48:11
    volunteer observation programs it means
  • 00:48:13
    using sophisticated new technologies I
  • 00:48:15
    talked about our Radars our Radars we
  • 00:48:18
    have 122 Radars around the country uh
  • 00:48:21
    and these Radars are many decades old
  • 00:48:25
    and there's some new technology out
  • 00:48:27
    there things like phased array radar
  • 00:48:28
    that we might be able to use to get the
  • 00:48:31
    sort of higher resolution observations
  • 00:48:33
    it sounds to me like
  • 00:48:35
    NOA might need a bigger
  • 00:48:38
    budget I'm just saying we're flying
  • 00:48:41
    around in 50 year old prop planes okay
  • 00:48:44
    we got sensors that are old and 20 years
  • 00:48:48
    old 20 years old like we need like come
  • 00:48:51
    on Congress Let's Make It Rain On Noah
  • 00:48:55
    20 years ago there were no smartphones
  • 00:48:57
    and YouTube didn't exist so terms of
  • 00:49:00
    where we are we do I mean if you look at
  • 00:49:03
    the full no Mission it's really pretty
  • 00:49:04
    incredible we've been talking mostly
  • 00:49:06
    about weather here space weather
  • 00:49:07
    atmospheric weather but we also make all
  • 00:49:09
    the the nautical charts you know if
  • 00:49:11
    you're a boater and you want the chart
  • 00:49:13
    you want to know how deep the water is
  • 00:49:14
    and where the shallow areas we do that
  • 00:49:16
    we manage Marine protected areas we
  • 00:49:19
    haven't even talked about our fisheries
  • 00:49:20
    management and you know what it costs
  • 00:49:22
    every American for all of these Services
  • 00:49:25
    it costs six cents per day here's what
  • 00:49:27
    we need we need Sarah mlin to sing a
  • 00:49:31
    song to sing the song and then we could
  • 00:49:34
    tell people for only six cents a
  • 00:49:38
    day we can support Noah in a way
  • 00:49:44
    that s
  • 00:49:48
    m right they need a Sarah mclin Worthy
  • 00:49:51
    song yes
  • 00:49:52
    exactly right just let it let it flow
  • 00:49:55
    from nautical charts
  • 00:49:57
    to Aurora
  • 00:49:59
    boreales Noah is in your life and for
  • 00:50:03
    only eight cents a day which is two more
  • 00:50:05
    pennies than what you're paying
  • 00:50:09
    now well Rick thanks for making time for
  • 00:50:12
    us thank you uh you know we last cross
  • 00:50:14
    paths back when we were trying to figure
  • 00:50:16
    out how to see this last Eclipse uh and
  • 00:50:20
    a lot of a lot of folks saw some were
  • 00:50:22
    clouded out but eclipses can happen
  • 00:50:24
    again and we have things called
  • 00:50:25
    airplanes that could take to where the
  • 00:50:27
    next eclipse is you'll have to wait for
  • 00:50:28
    it to come to your farm again but I just
  • 00:50:32
    want to say uh it's been a delight
  • 00:50:34
    having you on here and uh if do you
  • 00:50:37
    think you would uh are you likely to be
  • 00:50:39
    replaced I mean are you a political
  • 00:50:41
    appointee I am a political appointee and
  • 00:50:43
    so I serve with the pleasure of the
  • 00:50:45
    president so I mean I think you're the
  • 00:50:47
    right guy SE several people such as
  • 00:50:49
    there have been several NASA
  • 00:50:50
    administrators that went through
  • 00:50:52
    multiple presidents and multiple parties
  • 00:50:55
    yeah so that was a reminder to me me or
  • 00:50:57
    to us all that certain activities of the
  • 00:51:00
    nation um transcend politics and
  • 00:51:04
    transcend the political leadership
  • 00:51:06
    because they're they're surfing on
  • 00:51:09
    science that is the underpinning of it
  • 00:51:11
    all I know more about science than all
  • 00:51:13
    the
  • 00:51:16
    scientists all right so we gotta go so
  • 00:51:19
    give my regards to your whole agency
  • 00:51:21
    this has been a blast and Chuck it has
  • 00:51:24
    been a pleasure thank you so much Rick
  • 00:51:26
    thanks for being Star Talk we we love
  • 00:51:28
    everything you told us and it gives us
  • 00:51:30
    great hope for the future indeed Chuck
  • 00:51:32
    always good to have you man it is always
  • 00:51:34
    a pleasure all right Neil degrass Tyson
  • 00:51:36
    here you're a personal astrophysicist as
  • 00:51:38
    always I bid you to keep looking
  • 00:51:43
    [Music]
  • 00:51:54
    [Music]
  • 00:51:55
    up all
  • 00:52:02
    [Music]
Tags
  • weather
  • hurricanes
  • climate change
  • storm surge
  • Noaa
  • Neil deGrasse Tyson
  • meteorology
  • oceanic science
  • solar storms
  • artificial intelligence