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Sectarianism has spread its divisive influence across the middle east from the persian gulf to Lebanon and from
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Syria to Egypt
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already weakened Nation States struggling to grapple with the continued Sunni-shia conflict and
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minority rights faced new difficulties following the upheavals of the Arab Spring
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What can the u.s. Do [to] avoid adding fuel to the fire while securing its interests in the region?
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the Great divide
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Sunni versus Shia
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next on great decisions
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In the 7th century the prophet mohammed who founded Islam died without leaving an heir?
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To competing branches of Islam emerged the Sunni and the Shia
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After the prophet muhammad died in the [seventh] century [the] disagreement broke out almost immediately about who should succeed him
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There was the camp who argued that
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His successor should be following his closest companions
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[and] the other camp argued for succession by bloodline and we have
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the period of Fitna or Civil conflict where the prophet's companions
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Were essentially fighting each other and going to war?
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[over] these questions of who wields authority after the prophets death
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you
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the roots of Modern Sectarianism however can be traced back to World War one in
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1916 the British and French started planning for the defeat of Germany and its ally the ottoman Empire
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Which had controlled much [of] the middle East?
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for 400 years in most of this region the source of political legitimacy
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was the Sultan [the] Ottoman Sultan in
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Istanbul after the end of World War one the [powers] divided up the former ottoman Empire to
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Guarantee French and British influence
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The sykes-Picot agreement gave Syria and Lebanon to France while britain maintained control over
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What is now Israel the palestinian territories Iraq and Jordan?
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It was a secret agreement during World War one
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mainly between the French and the British but also with the agreement of Russia that if
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The three powers were able to defeat the ottoman Empire in World War one they would carve up the arab provinces
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Many people and the Arab world have always been very resentful
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Because they consider this the real symbol of colonialism
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Many of these countries were were not really countries. They were just artificially
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declared states by this agreement
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The British and French had divided some religious and ethnic communities and had thrown other
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Formerly, peaceful neighbors into competition with each other there isn't really any real sense of Nationhood
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The Kurds for instance have their own aspirations to statehood
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They're a distinct cultural and ethnic group and they were cutting up all these states in ways that
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led to a lot of Grievance and to a lot of
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Civil conflict and ultimately Civil war a new era of sectarianism was born
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in most countries the whole conflict became sectarian
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because
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Religion became important as a form of identity there is a battle going on for the soul of of islam
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What is the nature of an islamic state in the 21st century and we're seeing the ugliest manifestations of it I?
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Don't know how it's going to finally sort itself out
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Perhaps no strain of violence in the middle East has proven more virulent than the Sunni-shia divide
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It colors almost everything that's happening in the region it is
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The radio Station that everybody's listening to it is the song that you [can] [play] that people will respond to sectarianism is
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how people are
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Identifying themselves at a time
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when state institutions are breaking down in many ways sunnis and Shias have managed to live together better than
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protestants and Catholics did in Europe up until fairly recently
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What has happened now? Is that you have?
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resource competition you have power
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Competition with few communities putting a national identity over that of their tribe religion or community
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Central governments and the nations they served remained weak
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National Identity has taken a backseat to Sectarian and tribal
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affiliation and part of that is because
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Sectarianism once it's unleashed is very difficult to put back in
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in many countries
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Strongman dictators emerged
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Post-World War II in the beginning
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Era of Arab independence the strongmen took power these were military men they were men like Gamal Abdel Nasser in Egypt
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later on Saddam Hussein and Hafez al-Assad and also qaddafi [were] inspired by Nasser in Egypt who had
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The sense of Arab Nationalism strongmen kept a lid on all those sectarian feelings
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kept control of the country it wasn't often very nice the way they did it, but it kept things quiet and
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The u.s.. Wasn't that unhappy about that quiet
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the us invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Occupation to Follow
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exacerbated Sectarian
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tensions the us invasion of Iraq
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freed
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the majority of Iraqi Shia from a very violent repression by a minority sunni
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Government. It's possible to say that in that sense it you know exacerbated the tensions, but the tensions were there
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I mean, Saddam Hussein had killed had gassed
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Kurds and
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Repressed the majority rather brutally so we didn't create those tensions
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We lifted the lid I guess you have to say a Few years ago
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Americans probably didn't know the difference between us a sunni or shia
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and
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Iraq and the Civil war in Iraq itself began to introduce us to it when we got to Iraq
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Think many of us myself included were initially not fully
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Aware of how deep and important divide is Saddam Hussein from Iraq Sunni minority ruled with a proverbial iron fist
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He was a proponent of baathism
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Fascism literally in Arabic means renewal promoted the sense of a kind of a pan-Arab renewal
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and it dreamed of unifying the
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Arabs in certainly beginning in the levant, but also moving on to other
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Arab countries and
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Bad isms strongly secular and rejected the influence or involvement of Islam in State power
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One of the original sins was the de-baathification
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process and
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most of the Bath [party] leaders under Saddam Hussein were suddenly
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When you disband the [army], and you're essentially pushing a lot of sunnis outside the political process
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And when they don't have a stake [in] the new political system. They're more likely to resort to violence
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and that's where we see sunni militants targeting Shias more and more in the
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MiD-2000s as a rock descends into into terrible civil conflict after the Saddam Hussein regime was toppled a Shiaa
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Government [-] shape in [Iraq] when the Americans came it was very clear that they were backing
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the Shia majority in Iraq and the Sunnis
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saw that as
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Disenfranchisement that they had privileges under saddam
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Hussein and now not only had they lost them but they saw no way
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To have a voice [in] the government that was forming in Baghdad
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Constitutional foundations of the new Iraqi state were structured you have a president who's supposed to be Kurdish
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You have a prime [minister]
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who is supposed to be Shia the speaker of Parliament is supposed to be sunny so in a way [you're] entrenching those divides and
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Politics becomes a competition over power and resources and spoils and patronage
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in
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2011 the Arab Spring saw protesters in Several nations hoping to overthrow the Oppressive rule that many had known for decades
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only a few succeeded
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the Arab Spring [was] in large part [a] response to the behavior of dictators and strongmen in the Arab world and
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And to the dominance of these dictators really since the 1960s [even] [the] nineteen fifties
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since the end of the Iranian revolution
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1979 when a new Dynamic
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Revolutionary Force came to power in Tehran, Shiaa
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Communities who are a minority in most countries they live in but not in some Iraq being notable
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Woke up, and said what about us the cat is blown off. He
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the Kings and dictators and [generals]
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At least for a moment [were] no [longer] in control, and it looked like many of them were going to be swept aside
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These conflicts were always bubbling below the surface, but as long as you had
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Authoritarian leaders who could
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Manage and suppress those conflicts there was the appearance of stability
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Ultimately the Arab spring is about
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Not just young people, but people in general and that part of the world wanting to live in dignity
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isn't say democracy [as] a dignity and that means not having to pay corrupt officials for even simple things like
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driver's licenses, or business licenses it means not
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being abused if you're arrested by police many of the elites in those countries were
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enriching themselves in a way that was not sitting very well with much of the traditional Populace and
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with the revolution in Modern Communications
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Technology it became much easier to Rally in the streets to overthrow
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elected leaders
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Even in nations that successfully ousted their dictators the future is uncertain
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I think
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Weakness of the Arab Spring is that one saw the power of revolution, but at the same time there wasn't sufficient?
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Social cohesion to put in place a new political order much of this has come [to] very bad ends
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So Libya is virtually without a state
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Egypt is back to a semi-authoritarian
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State system or El Sisi is not very different from President Mubarak [Saur] whatever all these
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Students had in mind has not come to pass
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[Tunisia] has some possibilities. It's very small country, so I think there's been much less change
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than had been anticipated
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[there] is a not a [free] [press] in Egypt the women's movement has suffered
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every form of Civil Society has suffered now that the military led government is in power so that
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This government is even more oppressive than Mubarak
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Why in fact those who were interested in [Democracy] failed to come forward and leave and why were they in effect?
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shut out
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By either on the one hand military government or [on] the other hand
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By religiously based parties and ideas in part because in the evolution of Arab thought and in the unrolling
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Of these ideas these latter particular influences were stronger
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In Syria where its arab spring failed to quickly topple the [government] of President Bashar al-assad?
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centuries of sectarian tensions engulfed the region and showed a dark reality to the Sectarian divide
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The early protests in Syria and March of 2011 those were largely
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nonviolent
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Peaceful and they expressed a sense of disenchantment
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that had been building up for [four] decades against the assad regime it broke into a
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Sectarian fight rather quickly you [have] a
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minority regime
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Which is alawite supported by Christians druze and in some ways kurds
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Against a sunni majority in the country and so once you had the syrian uprising
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Then sectarianism took off across the region in ways that we haven't seen in a long time
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The regime in General has tried to use the sectarian card as a means of consolidating its support among that
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minority Alawis community and in so doing has terribly aggravated fault Lines within
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syrian Society that date Back centuries a
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great percentage of the population was secular then had of course a secular government, but
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once
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These uprisings became sort of transnational, so they began bleeding across borders
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Then what happens in Iraq affect Syria what happens in Lebanon affects Syria, and that's how religion as it
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[had] been in Iraq became a driving force of the conflict in Syria and it became sectarian
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oh
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Hello
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But I'm Gonna know
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The islamic State of Iraq and Syria has claimed territory in Syria and Iraq
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Where it says it has founded an islamic caliphate?
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What we're seeing in the isis phenomenon is something that is rooted in what happened in Iraq?
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starting in
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2003
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isis has its
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origins in
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al-Qaeda
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in Iraq
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which was a reaction to the American invasion and occupation a
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reaction that was
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exacerbated
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By that by the frankly by the joining
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to Al qaeda in Iraq of some of the former elements of the Saddam Hussein regime
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If you look at some of the literature that the islamic state isis has put out in the last year or so
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they have declared that they are going [to] redraw the borders in revenge for
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sykes-Picot in
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revenge for
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colonial Powers
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mapping out the middle East
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they're not just terrorists they have a serious vision [a] scary one of course but a serious vision for Governance and
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What they're doing in the territories, they hold is running local administrations
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Dispensing Justice through Sharia courts providing for some modicum of law and order. They're running electricity and the water
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Sunni groups in Iraq have allied [themselves] with isis and
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At least one major baathist militant group has taken shape in Iraq's provinces
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There was a moment [that] the sunnis of Iraq did turn against Al qaeda in
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Cooperation with the us military and backed at that time by the Iraqi government
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[but] when the Americans pulled out that Iraqi government went back on a lot [of] those promises to the sunni community
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Iraq had
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come back with Al qaeda and that's where isis comes from what really contributed to the spread of
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isis in Iraq
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is the failure of the Iraqi government to
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Treat its Sunni citizens
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decently
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So their loyalty to their own government was diminished by the fact that it didn't really treat them as citizens
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Lebanon is also feeling Sectarian pressures
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Hundreds of thousands of syrian refugees who have fled across the border are putting an increasing strain on Lebanon's resources?
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[glm] [tell] [you] that that shadow do that Saladin is a shoe
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Chemical a professional because the vast majority will be syrian refugees coming into Lebanon or sunni
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There is a fear such a large number of Sunnis
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Coming into Lebanon would tip the balance toward the sunnis of Lebanon we used to have 60%
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Christians in Lebanon and 40% Muslims now. It's the opposite and now after the syrian refugees
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I think it's gonna be down to 25% Christians and 75% muslims. This is creating a big issue
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We have three communities that are constantly
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competing for dominance and competing for their position in Lebanon and those are the sunnis the shia and the maronites and
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Everything in the construction of the lebanese government is based around these three communities
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Lebanon was you know an artificial construct
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but
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it was also sort of emblematic of what the middle east is and
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Ought to be. It's a mosaic of all these
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religions and ethnicities
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In some ways the syrian conflict can be seen as a proxy war between nations with interests in the region
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Iran supports the assad regime it's had an alliance with the assad regime since the early 1980s
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since the Iran-Iraq war and that alliance has endured through all that time Saudi Arabia supports the rebels and
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Other gulf countries also support the rebels united Arab emirates qatar some of them support different factions
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But the largest proxy war is really between Iran and Saudi, Arabia
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The Gulf Arabs have sought to overthrow the assad regime
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And have fed the fighting and in a sense
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It's also become a struggle between the united States and Russia iran's goal in my view is to increase its influence in the region
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You know it's a persian
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[Shia] Country and the Shia have in the Muslim world including in the middle east been downtrodden for
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centuries
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Iran needs the Assad regime in Syria
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And it needs it for one thing in particular
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The Assad regime has demonstrated very clearly over the last decade that it's willing to do anything iran
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wants in terms of supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran
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considers Hezbollah to be its main pressure point on Israel and
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Frankly its first line of defense if israel decides to attack Iranian Nuclear facilities
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Both the us and Saudi Arabia have sought to contain Iranian influence in the region
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Iran Wants isis the So-called islamic state?
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Dead in Iraq where it poses a direct?
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security threat to Iran and to Iran's Iraqi allies
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It wants it alive in Syria at least long enough
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To be able to wipe out the nationalist opposition
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to the assad regime inside Syria
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Now National boundaries in the middle East are at risk of shifting
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The Borders in the region are being Redrawn
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Countries are being partitioned
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statelets
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[are] replacing our replacing states?
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Borders no longer have the same significance
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So whether it's Syria or Iraq?
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The conflicts within those countries transcend the borders of those countries and the government's in each case in Damascus and baghdad
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demonstrated that they are unable to
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Stop the violence
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If a rock does divide it's not going to be this sectarianism. [it's] going to be a failure of
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Political governance now could end up being divided that way, but it's gonna be ugly
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because not all sunnis live in the middle [nuttall] she is living the south not all kurds live in the north and
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even within those three great groups
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Some people are educated urbanites some are uneducated farmers
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It doesn't divide that simply as Iraq has proven forming a viable democracy is a messy process at best
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At worst a fragile state can be an incubator for extremist groups seeking to export terror
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we
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Went abroad in search of Monsters
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to destroy
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We found some
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We bred some more
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Some of them are following us home
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That wasn't smart
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if any one particular ethnic or religious group
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Doesn't feel that they have a stake in the system, or they don't have the requisite share of power
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They're gonna say well, we don't want to be a part of this state
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We don't want to be a part of the government, and then they have an incentive to play spoiler
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Democracy should be promoted and supported in whatever way that we can do so but we should know and understand that
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those who will bring democracy and I believe there are some who can
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To an evolving middle east will do so over a long period of time
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And it's not just sectarianism driving the divide
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Economics and demographics play a central role as well
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Throughout this region you have this tremendous Youth Bulge you have very very [high] [percentage] [of] young
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People who have very very limited
00:24:11
economic
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Opportunities with that kind of a situation, it's very very difficult
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to think of the kind of rule of law that
00:24:22
Brings about consent of the governed that ultimately brings about what we would call
00:24:29
democratic processes, it's being driven by Economics
00:24:34
governance and if you want
00:24:37
Man-made problems that therefore our open demand made solutions not God based debates that can only be
00:24:46
decided by clerics
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