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hey everyone and thanks for jumping back
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into the cryptoverse today we're going
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to talk about Bitcoin the beauty of
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mathematics part 52 if you guys like the
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content make sure you subscribe to the
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channel give the video a thumbs up and
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also check out the sale on into the
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cryptoverse premium at intothe
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cryptoverse tocom let's go ahead and
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jump in now somehow and I really don't
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know how I
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missed
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this episode of the beauty of
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mathematics because I normally do it on
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the first of the month or around the
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first of the month sometimes it'll be
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the second or the third or you know at
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the latest but I I just completely
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forgot about it and I didn't even
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remember until a few days ago um but I I
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want to get some other videos out first
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so here we are uh it's November 16th by
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the time you see the video it'll
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probably be November 17th but anyways
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better late than never right um so as of
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November 16th the total cryptocurrency
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market capitalization is 2.98 2 trillion
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the fair value logarithmic progression
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trend line is now at
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3.91 trillion this still does represent
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a slight under valuation of
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approximately 3 and a half% now the way
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this works is that the asset class will
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spend several years overvalued it will
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spend several years undervalued and
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that's just the way the market works
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right there's not really necessarily um
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a rational way to think about it I
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suppose but if you think about it in
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terms of just emotion you know things
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can go overvalued for years because of
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of fomo um and then they can go
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undervalued for years because of fear
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and so you know sometimes when you're
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talking about what is the fair value of
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something and the price is hardly ever
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at the fair value because you know when
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when the Market's go up they tend to
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overshoot and when they correct they
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tend to crash harder than they really
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have any business crashing so as you can
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see throughout the Cycles there's
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periods of undervaluation and
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overvaluation and under and over and
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under and over and under and we've been
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undervalued essentially since the summer
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of 2022 and there's no guarantee that we
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will go durably overvalued right now but
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you can see that we are approaching that
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Milestone this has acted as a difficult
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spot for the asset class to get past
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really ever since the summer of 2022 so
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every time we get up to it we tend to
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fade and and we're unable to to Really
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stay above it if you look back at at the
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last cycle we didn't get above it in a
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durable fashion until November of the
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having year right so right around now
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right I mean actually a little bit
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earlier than now but right around now
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November of the having year so if it
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were to happen this November then I
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suppose it would be right on time
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especially as compared to last
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cycle if you look back further right
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let's suppose we don't go overvalued
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let's say something happens and and
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we're sitting here in a couple months
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and we're still undervalued then you
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might want to look back at some of the
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other cycles and see that that would
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also be perfectly normal right if you
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look at at the 2016 2017 cycle you can
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see that we didn't go overvalued until
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May or April May really May of the post
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having years so that'd be another half a
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year away right which kind of seems
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ridiculous at this point I suppose but
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history does show it's possible um if
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you look at the cycle before that it
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took until February of the post tapping
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year so it'll be another three months so
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I I suppose the argument here is that
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you know there's no way to know first of
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all exactly when we will durably go
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overvalued it could be tomorrow um it
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could be half a year
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way if it is half a year way I have to
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imagine something would interrupt things
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right um if you go back and look there
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there is a pattern that we've talked a
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little bit about um it's one of those
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patterns that I I don't really think it
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makes sense to sort of Base your entire
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investment thesis upon it because the
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best strategy for the cryptoverse is to
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DCA blind you know sort of of without
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without too much thought behind it right
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just DCA mindlessly for years and years
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and years and then at some point you're
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going to look back and be like yep it
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was a good decision and even today I
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mean bitcoin's you know just below it's
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it's right around $89,000 so for anyone
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who's DCA Bitcoin for for the last
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couple of years you're doing pretty well
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right I mean it's always possible that
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you have some Buys in at higher prices
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than the current price but your average
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entry is likely going to be a lot lower
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than the current valuation of $89,000
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but there is something we've talked a
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little bit about and it kind of goes
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back to to not only last cycle but but
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two cycles uh before that one where and
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we we really covered this in great
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detail so if you follow this channel
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this year you will know that back in
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March we called for a 6 to n month drop
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six to nine months now the reason I gave
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a range is because I don't have a
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crystal ball I don't know exactly I
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never knew how long exactly it would
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take I knew that 6 months would be the
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lower end 9 months would be sort of the
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longer the longer time frame and the
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reason I gave six months was because
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that's how long it took over here for
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Bitcoin to break out and it also had a
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very similar structure right where it
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went undervalued and then it went
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overvalued before rate Cuts right
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undervalued and then overvalued before
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rate cuts and then you know as those
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rate Cuts came in or got started to get
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priced in then the market went back down
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to being under under valued kind of the
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same thing that happened this cycle and
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then it went back up to the fair value
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got slightly above
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it and then we sold off again so if and
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this was a pandemic induced recession so
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again this is why you shouldn't base
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your entire investment thesis upon it
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but there are things that could occur
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where you know it might kick the can
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down the road a few months um that's not
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entirely out of the question and so if
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something like that were to happen I do
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think it would it would set up an
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opportunity in the cryptoverse um but
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again I I think the the better strategy
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is to hope for the best plan for the
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worst this is not the only time that
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pattern has happened it's one of the
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times the main times we've talked about
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it but if you actually go back and look
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at at sort of this cycle over here you
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can see there was something similar
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right so after the bare Market was over
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it went
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overvalued and then it came back to
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being undervalued and then it sort of
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popped its head slightly above the
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overvaluation territory sold off one
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more time and because it sold off right
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because it sold off right there instead
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of breaking above the fair value durably
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in August you know it took another half
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a year so that's why I'm saying right I
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mean like if you just look at last cycle
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from a cyclical view from a cyclical
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view now is the time in fact there's
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other elements of Confluence right now
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not just that one of the areas if you go
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look at we just did a video on the fear
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and greed index yesterday and I
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mentioned that if it hits 90 that should
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turn some heads
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it hit 90 right I mean it's at 90 right
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now and so here's the question that I I
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think a lot of us really should should
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think about right now because it sort of
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the answer to this question is going to
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dictate whether you get your alt season
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in 2025 or if it gets kicked down the
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you know kicked down the road I'm not
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saying it won't happen um we probably
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will get one in 2025 but do you get it
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in January do you get it a few months
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later like when does it actually start
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this
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might provide the answer to that
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question one of the things to remember
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is that in order to get alt season which
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is truly what everyone wants right and
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the reason the reason everyone we we
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know that's what people want is because
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when the price of Bitcoin goes up
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there's a lot of people that don't
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follow Bitcoin dominance right and so
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like the price of bitcoin's up and they
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can look at it and be like great like
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you know bitcoin's at 90k while they're
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sitting there holding a portfolio of
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altcoin
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that haven't done a thing for 3 years so
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it's one of those things where the only
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way to really get all season is to is to
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stay euphoric for more than a couple of
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days okay what do I mean by that
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well if you look and again the reason
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I'm talking about this is because it
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will help us figure out if we're going
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to durably go overvalued now immediately
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and follow the cylic IC view of Bitcoin
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which we'll talk about or if we have to
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kick the can down the road so one of the
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things to remember and and this goes
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back to what happened back over here in
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March of 2024 if you guys remember
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Bitcoin went to the 90 to 100 level in
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terms of fear and
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greet it went into the '90s
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and back then back in March if you guys
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go back and and watch sort of the
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prevailing views of YouTube at the time
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everyone was calling you know for a
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major breakout right to to much much
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higher prices right to 100K to 200k so
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on and so forth because they were
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looking at this and thinking that the
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fear and greed index hitting the 90s was
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going to repeat exactly what it did in
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November of 2020 because the last time
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what you know what brought them to the
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cryptoverse was that rally right there's
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probably a lot of people here that
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joined crypto in late 2020 early 2021
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specifically because of this rally and
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that is ultimately what led to alt
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season because it brought a lot of eyes
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back to the
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cryptoverse that's why during this rally
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after Bitcoin was done rallying you had
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alt season because tons of new eyeballs
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came to the space and they weren't going
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to buy Bitcoin they wanted to go buy the
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shiny objects which were in fact the
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altcoins so back in
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March when Bitcoin hit this fear and
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greed index in the 90s and everyone was
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thinking that it was this I said guys
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hold on a second right let's not get
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ahead of ourselves what if it's this
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what if it's the
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2019 style top where Bitcoin goes into
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the 90s but it only stays there for a
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few days right if it only stays there
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for a few days it's not going to lead to
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the same level of euphoria that you're
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expecting and if it doesn't lead to the
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same level of euphoria then that means
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that Bitcoin dominance is not done going
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up so if you go look at Bitcoin USD and
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you overlay Bitcoin
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dominance if you're new to the channel I
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got some news for you we talk about
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Bitcoin dominance a little bit around
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here uh we probably won't forever but if
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you look at it right back in March
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dominance back then was at
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53% or so today dominance is at 60% so
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what happened was that Bitcoin got
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euphoric right it got
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euphoric but it wasn't enough to really
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bring people back that was the issue it
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wasn't enough to to to Really make
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people come back to the table and say
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all right what's going on in crypto he
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made headlines for sure I mean you know
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a lot of people were talking about
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Bitcoin when it was back in 7
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3K but it didn't bring the masses back
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how do we know it didn't bring the
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masses back because you could argue that
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maybe the masses did come back and
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that's and they just bought Bitcoin and
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they didn't buy alts well the the reason
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we know that is if you if you go look at
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at YouTube views to you know I got about
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you know I don't know like 25 different
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crypto YouTube channels on here if you
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go back and look at March what you'll
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notice is that there was a surge in
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views but then the minute Bitcoin topped
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right the minute it hit its top the
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views just died off right whereas in
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2020 and 20121 you know after Bitcoin
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hit hit its top we continued to see
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views surge even after Bitcoin slowed
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down here we didn't even know that March
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was the top well we had a pretty good
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theory on this channel that it was
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because it corresponded with gold
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breaking out and usct dominance Hing its
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long-term trend line so over here we
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were like hey guys this might be the top
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for the next 6 to n months and it was
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but you can see that immediately after
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Bitcoin cooled off the views plummeted I
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mean and we went up to you know we went
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up to about 2 million views collectively
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but then that was in March by April we
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were back down to a million views a day
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in terms of all these channels combined
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a million views a day so that that is
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the question right does it durably bring
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people back
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or does it not so
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if Bitcoin keeps
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rallying you know for several weeks kind
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of like what it did in um
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2020 then it would likely lead to the
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fear and greed index staying in extreme
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Greed for longer right and the longer
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it's there the more people are going to
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come back to the cryptoverse but if
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Bitcoin kind of Fades or doesn't make
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that move to 100K like we all want it to
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then the sort of the fear and greed
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could start to go back down now at the
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end of the day when you look at at you
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know sort of the ROI from the cycle low
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we we've covered this extensively uh for
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this cycle you know one of the reasons I
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didn't think we would go up in you know
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beyond March was we were also so far
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ahead of the prior Cycles right I mean
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it looked like we needed to cool off for
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about half a year just visually right I
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mean forget about gold and usdt
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dominance right I mean just looking at
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the chart the ROI from the low was so
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much above the other two cycles we were
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at 4.6x off the low whereas the two
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cycles before that were only at 2 to 3x
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off the low from that point in the cycle
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but now because Bitcoin cooled off for
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half a year now you can see it's more in
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line with the prior Cycles so I would
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argue that Bitcoin has a better
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chance of sustaining it now
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than it did back at 73k it has a better
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chance because the ROI is back in line
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with the last two
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cycles so I think we go into it thinking
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this could lead to a longer
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term period where the fear and greed
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index stays at 90 and above the one
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thing to consider you know if it if it
00:15:23
does end up fading and and it doesn't
00:15:25
really lead to a durable breakout and
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you know let's say it does what did last
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cycle or would have did two cycles
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before that where it gets another
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selloff or something um I suppose the
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reason in hindsight would just simply be
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that we're still in QT and not in QE
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that might be the reason but again the
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transition from QT to QE could
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occur you know anytime I mean they maybe
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they'll maybe the FED will pivot in
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December um so I think that's kind of
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where we are right now you know I mean I
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I think it makes sense to you know to
00:16:00
look at a chart like this and and we've
00:16:02
been talking about it for years right
00:16:03
for me personally I've just say I've
00:16:05
said stay Bitcoin heavy until 60%
00:16:08
dominance now that we're at 60%
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dominance I I certainly think it it it
00:16:12
makes sense to hedge but there there's
00:16:15
one sort of reality to sort of
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everything going on as it relates to
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bitcoin Dominus and I I've struggled
00:16:20
with this for a long time because I told
00:16:21
you guys my target was 60% for years at
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least right I mean I I've said it could
00:16:26
go higher and now and it already has
00:16:28
right it's already gone to 61% and you
00:16:30
know I look at it and I'm like well how
00:16:34
you know how do we how do we figure out
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where the top is for something like
00:16:39
Dominus right how do we know like what's
00:16:41
going to actually bring people back the
00:16:43
thing that happened last cycle that led
00:16:45
to the change and and what really led to
00:16:48
alt
00:16:50
season you know and it wasn't it wasn't
00:16:52
just price right that's the thing I
00:16:54
think everyone assumes that the price
00:16:57
has to go up for people to become
00:16:59
interested and that that that seems
00:17:01
logical right I that seems like the
00:17:03
rational way to think about the market
00:17:04
but there is some evidence against it if
00:17:08
you were to go look at the social risk
00:17:11
right this attracts not only YouTube
00:17:12
views but Subs to YouTube channels um
00:17:16
and then followers to different crypto
00:17:17
analysts on Twitter or X and exchanges
00:17:19
and layer ones you can see actually
00:17:24
that in 2019 the social risk started
00:17:28
going up here right it was forming
00:17:29
higher lows even while Bitcoin was going
00:17:32
down right and even when Bitcoin had
00:17:34
this crash it was still forming higher
00:17:35
lows what happened here right what
00:17:37
happened in 2019 that sort of led to
00:17:41
that higher low structure on the social
00:17:44
risk we haven't yet seen that this cycle
00:17:47
now we just had a big surge in the
00:17:49
social risk which is great to see this
00:17:51
is the first higher high we've had in in
00:17:53
a long time in the social risk right I
00:17:55
mean we had higher highs you know back
00:17:57
over here but we haven't had any higher
00:18:00
highs on the social risk in any time any
00:18:02
anytime recently and hopefully it goes
00:18:05
back up to the higher levels but there's
00:18:07
also no guarantee that you know that the
00:18:10
masses will immediately come back right
00:18:12
hope for the best plan for the worst um
00:18:15
and again you know the social risk was
00:18:17
just putting in basically it was back at
00:18:19
zero just a week or two ago what's
00:18:23
interesting is every time it hits zero
00:18:26
or gets close to it has historically
00:18:28
been time where altcoins start to catch
00:18:30
at least a bid even if they still
00:18:33
underperform Bitcoin but what happened
00:18:36
you know in in sort of this September of
00:18:38
2019 that led to this the higher low
00:18:41
structure on social risk no matter what
00:18:44
the price did that's the key thing right
00:18:46
it didn't matter what price was doing
00:18:48
social risk was trending higher I think
00:18:53
and again it's it's dubious speculation
00:18:55
I absolutely could be wrong absolutely
00:18:58
but I think what it was was um was the
00:19:02
pivot from from quantitative Titan to
00:19:04
quantitative eing and also loose for
00:19:06
monetary policy in general right we have
00:19:08
we did have rate Cuts so I think that's
00:19:10
what happened I think there's there's a
00:19:11
lot of evidence to suggest that that had
00:19:13
some effect on it because you know it
00:19:15
was precisely it was precisely when uh
00:19:19
you know the FED began QE that's exactly
00:19:22
where Bitcoin dominance topped out last
00:19:24
cycle right exactly I mean if you look
00:19:26
at the Bitcoin dominance top it was is
00:19:28
right when the fed pivoted from QT
00:19:31
quantitative tightening to QE and I I
00:19:35
think the reason why Bitcoin dominance
00:19:38
continues to go higher and you see
00:19:40
things like eth just stuck in traffic on
00:19:43
struggled Street and no matter what
00:19:45
Bitcoin does eth underperforms it you
00:19:50
would be interested to
00:19:52
know perhaps that this past week Bitcoin
00:19:57
is up
00:20:00
112% would you care to guess how much
00:20:02
eth is up it's down 4% this is what I
00:20:06
remember seeing in
00:20:07
2016 right and this is why I was you
00:20:10
know I was I was not very optimistic on
00:20:11
eth I'm like well look if if Bitcoin
00:20:13
goes up it'll lift eth with it but eth
00:20:15
Bitcoin likely goes down until QE
00:20:18
returns that doesn't mean eth can't
00:20:19
rally right I mean there's been a lot of
00:20:21
altcoins rallying recently so I'm not
00:20:22
suggesting that it can't catch a bid
00:20:25
it's just that you you see why the
00:20:27
underperformance is continuing it's
00:20:30
because we haven't really yet had the
00:20:33
durable higher low and higher high
00:20:36
structure on the social risk where
00:20:38
people come back to the table and they
00:20:41
say I want to invest in crypto and I
00:20:43
want to see what's happening in the
00:20:44
cryptoverse we haven't seen that
00:20:46
transition it's possible it's beginning
00:20:49
but it hasn't it's not obvious yet right
00:20:51
we we've seen spikes before that
00:20:53
ultimately just came right back down so
00:20:57
believe it or not I mean like you know
00:20:58
the I do run a YouTube channel as you
00:21:00
know right you're here watching it uh I
00:21:02
would love nothing more than for people
00:21:04
to come back and and and and watch the
00:21:07
cryptoverse like they used to but it
00:21:09
just hasn't been like that since 2021 um
00:21:13
every spike in the interest eventually
00:21:15
faded maybe this time is different you
00:21:17
know maybe there's something to sort of
00:21:19
the uh you there's obviously discussions
00:21:21
about the Strategic Reserve um there's
00:21:23
obviously more discussions about you
00:21:25
know what's going to go on with um you
00:21:26
know more of the institutions getting
00:21:28
involved and and and whatnot but at the
00:21:30
end of the day you know we got to go
00:21:32
with the numbers right and you know what
00:21:34
do the numbers say right now we are
00:21:35
potentially looking at our first higher
00:21:37
high in a
00:21:38
while can it put in a higher low my
00:21:41
guess is If the Fed pivots to QE it'll
00:21:44
put in a higher low so we'll see
00:21:47
hopefully so when we go back to sort of
00:21:49
that chart we were looking at
00:21:51
earlier can we go durably overvalued
00:21:54
here I think it depends on how long
00:21:59
Bitcoin can stay sort of in the uh
00:22:02
euphoric stage right I mean I think
00:22:04
everyone feels it right now everyone's
00:22:05
kind of got that that feeling in their
00:22:07
stomach of like you know what's going to
00:22:09
happen tomorrow um kind of like it was
00:22:13
in in March right when we hit extreme
00:22:15
greed the the key thing about about fear
00:22:18
and greed index I have to remind people
00:22:19
is that it's not really a great
00:22:20
indicator to sort of buy and sell uh by
00:22:23
itself because like sometimes it'll go
00:22:26
up to these levels and if you sell it
00:22:28
ends up marking the top like in 2019 and
00:22:30
in 2020 in March 2024 but then other
00:22:33
times it goes up here and if you sold
00:22:35
when it hit 90 then you missed out on a
00:22:37
great move that came right after it so I
00:22:39
don't think you should look at the
00:22:39
fearing GE index as like as a reason to
00:22:42
sort of buy and sell crypto but it can
00:22:44
give you Confluence right I also think
00:22:46
maybe it's more worthwhile to look at
00:22:49
say like a 30-day EMA or something right
00:22:51
you know if it's spending a lot of time
00:22:53
up here then it's more indicative of
00:22:55
like things are way too heated and the
00:22:58
market needs to cool off um whereas if
00:23:00
it's just up here for you know a little
00:23:02
bit then it would imply that the market
00:23:04
you know could certainly go higher um so
00:23:08
I I think where I stand right now on
00:23:09
this stuff is as it relates sort of the
00:23:11
total market cap and trend line I think
00:23:13
it makes sense to be openminded to what
00:23:15
happened here in November where you know
00:23:18
it got above it and then kind of it just
00:23:20
kept on going that was during QE and we
00:23:23
had seen sort of that durable higher low
00:23:25
structure on the social risk which we're
00:23:27
not yet seeing so but it's still it's
00:23:29
still possible that that could play out
00:23:30
and the reason I would say it's more
00:23:32
possible today than it was back over
00:23:34
here you know 7 eight months ago is
00:23:37
because we're further along in the cycle
00:23:39
and the cyclical Roi is more in line
00:23:43
with the prior Cycles than we were back
00:23:47
in March at least when you measure it
00:23:49
from the low now if you do measure it
00:23:51
from the peak right if you go Peak to
00:23:54
Peak
00:23:56
um you can actually see that it's f
00:23:58
Following last cycle right now right I
00:24:00
mean it's almost it it started moving up
00:24:02
the minute it the the last cycle sort of
00:24:04
caught up with it you see that so I I'm
00:24:07
I've been following that a lot recently
00:24:08
to see if it can continue to follow it
00:24:10
because this is exactly when that rally
00:24:12
happened right last cycle and you can
00:24:14
see that bitcoin's trying to follow suit
00:24:17
if it falls off for whatever reason um
00:24:21
just know that I I feel like there's a
00:24:23
safety not Below in terms of the cycle
00:24:26
that was before that one right I mean
00:24:27
it's still at this point in the cycle
00:24:29
the ROI from the peak to Peak back then
00:24:31
Bitcoin was still 30% below the all-time
00:24:34
high
00:24:35
so there there's definitely a lot of
00:24:37
ways to look at the market but I I just
00:24:39
think that when you're when you're sort
00:24:40
of looking at this total market cap and
00:24:42
trend line when we're trying to figure
00:24:44
out you know is it time to durably go
00:24:46
overvalued is it time to go undervalued
00:24:49
I think a lot of it's going to depend on
00:24:51
how long Bitcoin can stay sort of in
00:24:54
this euphoric range where it's between
00:24:57
90 to 100 if it can stay here for more
00:25:01
than a day or two so if it's different
00:25:04
than 2019 and if it's different than
00:25:06
March if it can stay here for a few
00:25:08
weeks then it would favor an ALT season
00:25:12
especially in say like early
00:25:14
20125 but if it only stays here for a
00:25:18
couple days and and then the market kind
00:25:20
of cools off again then we're just going
00:25:23
to be kicking the can down the road
00:25:25
again kind of like we did last cycle and
00:25:27
the cycle before that it doesn't mean
00:25:29
we're not going to go overvalued again
00:25:31
I'm sure we would but it might just take
00:25:33
it another few months to get there um so
00:25:37
yeah I mean I think that's where we are
00:25:38
I I do think that I mean in general you
00:25:39
can see that the main areas ofum of
00:25:41
accumulation are sort of when when the
00:25:44
asset class is below the fair value
00:25:46
logarithmic regression trend line this
00:25:47
red line which we've been below for a
00:25:49
number of years now I have been very
00:25:52
critical of of the altcoin market for
00:25:54
the last few years because I just said
00:25:56
that like you know usually during this
00:25:57
time down here there's a rotation of
00:25:59
capital from altcoins to bitcoin which
00:26:02
honestly you know it wasn't something
00:26:04
that that people were really fond of
00:26:05
that idea but I I hope that you can look
00:26:08
back today and kind of understand where
00:26:10
I was coming from right like you look
00:26:12
back at the chart now and it it kind of
00:26:14
makes sense I you see that the Bitcoin
00:26:16
dominance has just been going up the
00:26:18
entire time so hopefully you understand
00:26:20
like why I was so you know sort of
00:26:23
strong you know very strong opinion
00:26:26
about that view that you know it's
00:26:27
better stick with Bitcoin until you know
00:26:30
until 60% dominance at the very
00:26:33
least because all that money is just
00:26:35
going to go into Bitcoin and that's
00:26:37
what's going to fuel the rally right
00:26:39
altcoins typically don't run until after
00:26:42
Bitcoin dominance is topped and we just
00:26:44
we haven't really seen that yet right we
00:26:46
haven't seen the evidence just yet that
00:26:48
Bitcoin dominance has topped it's
00:26:50
possible that it has I mean it's
00:26:51
definitely hit my my target but in terms
00:26:54
of uh QE you know we haven't we haven't
00:26:57
seen that yet and and the other thing
00:26:59
too from the cyclical point of view if
00:27:00
Bitcoin can rally into the end of the
00:27:02
year let's say it does follow what it
00:27:04
did last cycle where it just sort of
00:27:05
rallies on up at the end of November and
00:27:07
December then this pullback that we got
00:27:11
by
00:27:13
dominance is is potentially this one
00:27:15
right here that also occurred in in
00:27:16
November you know it's probably better
00:27:18
viewed on on alt Bitcoin pairs right if
00:27:20
you look at all Bitcoin pairs you can
00:27:22
see that in mid November alt Bitcoin
00:27:24
pairs got a two-e rally and you can see
00:27:26
right here you know alt Bitcoin pairs
00:27:28
have been you know sort of doing okay
00:27:30
for the last couple of weeks I still
00:27:32
think there is a good chance that
00:27:36
Bitcoin will suck the liquidity from the
00:27:38
altcoin market one last time for this
00:27:41
cycle and my guess if it's going to
00:27:43
happen is is going to happen in December
00:27:45
that's my guess is if if the if Bitcoin
00:27:48
is going to suck that liquidity out of
00:27:49
the altcoin market one more time I think
00:27:52
it'll be December and and then you know
00:27:55
if that happens then we really get to
00:27:58
connect the dots just like last cycle
00:28:01
you know where you you sort of you get
00:28:03
your your first tag of the trend line in
00:28:05
the bare
00:28:06
market and then you get your second tag
00:28:08
of the trend
00:28:11
line you know right here just before the
00:28:14
FED paes rates right here just before
00:28:16
the FED paes rates this blue line and
00:28:18
then you get your third tag of the trend
00:28:19
line as rate Cuts begin and if that
00:28:23
happens again then you'll you'll get
00:28:24
your third tag of the trend line down
00:28:25
here for alt Bitcoin pairs if you're new
00:28:27
here which some of you are remember all
00:28:29
Bitcoin pairs are not the same as all
00:28:31
USD pairs all Bitcoin pairs can go down
00:28:33
while all USD pairs go up it's also
00:28:35
possible that all Bitcoin pairs go down
00:28:37
while all USD pairs go down it just
00:28:38
depends on bitcoin and that's why I've
00:28:40
said for the last few years right like
00:28:42
if you want exposure to crypto one of
00:28:44
the best things to do is just get
00:28:45
Bitcoin because it gives you exposure to
00:28:47
the upside but it also minimizes your
00:28:48
downside risk so you're not just stuck
00:28:50
here several years later watching your
00:28:52
altcoin sorry not your altcoin everyone
00:28:56
else's altcoin bleed right your altcoin
00:28:58
I'm sure is fine but you know that way
00:29:01
you're not sitting here three years
00:29:02
later watching your friend's altcoin
00:29:04
bleed for three you know having bled for
00:29:06
three years and then they're like crap I
00:29:07
should have just stuck with Bitcoin and
00:29:09
that would have preserved the satosi
00:29:10
valuation of my portfolio so I guess a
00:29:13
lot of this sort of depends on is the
00:29:16
move first of all I don't know if
00:29:17
there's going to be a move or not I
00:29:18
think it's going to happen right is the
00:29:20
move down here by all Bitcoin pairs is
00:29:23
it on a rally or is it on a
00:29:26
dump the cyclical View
00:29:28
has continued to Prevail right and I've
00:29:31
said before markets do not need a reason
00:29:34
to go up markets generally Trend up they
00:29:37
need a reason to go down so until you
00:29:39
see that reason to go down it has
00:29:41
historically made sense to defer to the
00:29:44
cyclical
00:29:45
view so I think you defer to that if the
00:29:49
market start to show us something else
00:29:52
and Bitcoin starts to
00:29:54
struggle then it could be you know it
00:29:56
could be on on on a Down downturn and
00:29:58
then if it is on a downturn I still
00:30:00
think we would eventually go overvalued
00:30:03
it just might kick the can down the road
00:30:05
six months so I think a lot of it
00:30:07
depends on you know about like when alt
00:30:09
season when durably overvalued like you
00:30:11
know when is when is this going to go
00:30:12
durably overvalued and and go into alt
00:30:15
season a lot of that depends on the
00:30:17
answer to this question right is the
00:30:19
final move down by Alt Bitcoin pairs is
00:30:22
it on a Bitcoin rally following the the
00:30:25
sort of the cyclical view of Bitcoin
00:30:27
right Roi from the cycle low matches
00:30:30
right now right this is when it normally
00:30:32
goes up or is it going to follow
00:30:35
something else right which is what
00:30:36
happened last cycle where you know where
00:30:38
Bitcoin got the
00:30:40
breakout it got the
00:30:43
breakout right
00:30:46
there and then it and then it fell one
00:30:48
last time and then and then we we still
00:30:50
went durably overvalued right it's just
00:30:52
that we got one more ShakeOut before
00:30:54
that actually happened um so it might
00:30:57
actually be really interesting see what
00:30:58
happens in the next couple of weeks I I
00:30:59
do think there's a chance that Bitcoin
00:31:01
might cool off a little bit like it
00:31:04
normally does going into the beginning
00:31:06
of the month if you guys remember
00:31:08
bitcoin's been doing that thing where
00:31:10
like every time it rallies it then kind
00:31:12
of stalls out about you know halfway
00:31:15
through the month three weeks through
00:31:17
the month and then it kind of waits for
00:31:18
the labor market data to come in um
00:31:21
we've seen that a lot we saw it right
00:31:23
here in early April and then again in
00:31:25
early June and then again in early
00:31:27
August and then it happened again here
00:31:29
we said it's likely going to stall out
00:31:31
for a little bit right here wait for the
00:31:33
labor market data to come in if the
00:31:34
unemployment rate comes in low you know
00:31:36
at 4.1% or lower then the cyclical view
00:31:39
will likely Prevail and it'll rally and
00:31:40
you can see that it has it's gotten a
00:31:41
twoe rally if it does stall out it's
00:31:44
just going to be because it's waiting
00:31:45
for the labor market data that'll come
00:31:46
in in a couple of weeks so my guess is
00:31:48
that we should get the answer to all of
00:31:50
these questions about all Bitcoin Pairs
00:31:52
and all that stuff and you know is it
00:31:54
time to go derly override we should give
00:31:56
that answer in about two three weeks
00:31:59
right two to three weeks if in if in two
00:32:02
to three weeks the unemployment rate is
00:32:05
still low and it isn't showing any
00:32:07
concerning
00:32:08
signs then it's probably it's probably
00:32:10
more likely that the market trends
00:32:12
higher if it shows concerning signs then
00:32:15
yeah it's possible we get one last drop
00:32:17
uh before going durably overvalued but
00:32:19
that's where I think you know that's
00:32:20
what I think about the current market
00:32:21
out look um and how it sort of relates
00:32:23
to the prior cycles and you know again
00:32:25
right now we're we're about 3%
00:32:27
undervalued I think that might not make
00:32:28
sense to a lot of people but you know
00:32:31
the idea is that the asset class grows
00:32:34
as a function of time like more and more
00:32:35
people come in so you know in 2021 the
00:32:38
fair value was only 700 billion when we
00:32:41
were at three trillion market cap which
00:32:43
is where we are today now we're at three
00:32:45
trillion market cap but the fair value
00:32:46
is also three trillion so even though
00:32:49
the market cap is the same as it was
00:32:50
back over here we're not as overvalued
00:32:53
as we were back over there and if you
00:32:56
take that percent difference between the
00:32:57
total market cap and the fair value you
00:32:59
get a chart that looks like this right
00:33:01
so this way you can kind of see what I'm
00:33:02
talking about how there were two cycles
00:33:05
where we sort of had one rally above the
00:33:06
fair value above the red line and then
00:33:09
back down and then we poked our head
00:33:11
back above it and then back down once
00:33:13
more and then off to the races right and
00:33:16
then two cycles ago we were went above
00:33:18
it and back down went back above it back
00:33:20
down and then off to the races it was
00:33:22
the 2016 27 2016 2017 cycle that doesn't
00:33:27
look like that at all right that was the
00:33:28
one where we just kind of stayed weit on
00:33:29
here for a really long time and then we
00:33:31
didn't really start moving until the
00:33:32
post having year at least as it relates
00:33:34
to the extension off the fair value so
00:33:38
we'll see what happens this cycle but I
00:33:39
just wanted you guys to see kind of all
00:33:41
the possibilities here and and you know
00:33:43
to be prepared for both outcomes because
00:33:45
I don't have a crystal ball I don't I
00:33:46
don't know what's going to happen I
00:33:47
don't claim to know what's going to
00:33:49
happen I just want to present to you the
00:33:51
you know sort of the outlook on the
00:33:53
market and to know that if it is
00:33:55
following one view then to to refer to
00:33:58
that view until proven otherwise the
00:33:59
thing that I've learned the most over
00:34:01
the last few years and even before
00:34:02
starting YouTube channel is that ta you
00:34:05
know I mean it's great but a lot of
00:34:06
times it fails the thing that works the
00:34:08
most is momentum momentum that's a lot
00:34:11
it's you know it's it it it goes for a
00:34:12
lot and that's the thing like you know
00:34:14
when the Market's turning up it doesn't
00:34:16
matter what your ta says as long as you
00:34:18
end the TA analysis with and then the
00:34:21
price of Bitcoin should go up you're
00:34:23
going to be right more than more often
00:34:24
than not if the Market's trending down
00:34:26
it doesn't matter what you're te ta is
00:34:28
as long as you end the video with and
00:34:30
that's why I think it's going to go down
00:34:32
then people will think that your ta is
00:34:34
is is good and useful but at the end of
00:34:36
the day I think momentum is is probably
00:34:37
one of the most powerful things in the
00:34:39
market and so I think you you know you
00:34:42
try to ride the momentum as long as you
00:34:43
can if it does give you any indication
00:34:46
that it it is is sort of stalling out
00:34:49
then it it makes sense to reconsider but
00:34:51
at least in the short term you know we
00:34:53
just had two pretty great weeks with
00:34:55
Bitcoin right we had a 177% move up and
00:34:57
then in a 12% move up at least so far so
00:35:00
we'll see where the end of the week
00:35:01
comes in we'll obviously keep providing
00:35:03
updates to this stuff thank you guys for
00:35:05
tuning in hopefully you enjoyed this
00:35:06
installment of Bitcoin the beauty of
00:35:09
mathematics um and of course the obvious
00:35:11
goal I know we're at three trillion now
00:35:13
the obvious goal is to get to 10
00:35:14
trillion plus or minus a few trillion as
00:35:16
we go to sleep at night we cannot help
00:35:17
but wonder what's a few trillion dollars
00:35:20
among friends thank you guys for tuning
00:35:21
in and I'll see you next time bye
