Why is this video called 'the great interest rate super cycle'?

The video is discussing the significant changes anticipated in interest rates, which could drastically affect financial markets.

What is the importance of interest rate policy according to the speaker?

Interest rate policy is crucial as it affects various financial markets, including equities, bonds, real estate, and cryptocurrencies.

What is the expected interest rate change mentioned in the video?

The video mentions a potential interest rate cut from the current 5.38% to below 3% over the next year.

How will lowering interest rates affect money market funds and risk assets?

Lowering interest rates will likely lead to a movement towards risk assets, causing rises in equities, real estate, bonds, Bitcoin, and gold.

What is the significance of gold trading above $2,600 per ounce?

It indicates a potential increase in value due to rising demand, as seen with increasing purchases by countries like China.

What are the speaker's predictions for Bitcoin by the end of 2025?

The speaker predicts Bitcoin could reach $200,000, potentially three to four times higher than its current value.

Does the speaker recommend using leverage for investing in Bitcoin?

The speaker advises against using leverage, suggesting a heavy allocation to Bitcoin without leverage for better risk management.

The Great Interest Rate SuperCycle.

00:05:04

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9U2bJcPlns0

Ringkasan

TLDR裁量交易员Fred Krueger讨论了利率政策变化对金融市场的重大影响，尤其是将利率从5.38%削减至低于3%的可能性。根据市场预测，这种变化可能会导致对风险资产的投资激增，从而推动股票、房地产、债券、比特币和黄金的价格上涨。他对比特币持乐观态度，预计到2025年底价格可能达到20万美元。然而，Krueger建议不要使用杠杆来进行投资。

Takeaways

📉 利率政策的变化对金融市场至关重要。
🔍 预计未来一年利率将从5.38%降至低于3%。
📈 低利率可能导致风险资产价格上涨，如股票和房地产。
🪙 比特币可能在2025年达到200,000美元。
💼 投资比特币时，建议不使用杠杆。
📊 黄金价格已超过每盎司2,600美元，显示强劲需求。

Garis waktu

00:00:00 - 00:05:04
L'oratore, ex trader di obbligazioni, discute l'importanza cruciale della politica dei tassi d'interesse e del prossimo ciclo di tassi, definendo il periodo come il 'super ciclo dei tassi d'interesse'. Attualmente i tassi d'interesse sono al 5,38%, con previsioni di un taglio tra 25 e 50 punti base. Si nota una previsione del mercato che indica un calo dei tassi sotto il 3% entro il 2025. Questo slancio potrebbe spingere verso asset a rischio come azioni, immobili e criptovalute, compreso Bitcoin, che potrebbe raggiungere valutazioni notevoli entro la fine del 2025.

Peta Pikiran

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

Why is this video called 'the great interest rate super cycle'?
The video is discussing the significant changes anticipated in interest rates, which could drastically affect financial markets.
What is the importance of interest rate policy according to the speaker?
Interest rate policy is crucial as it affects various financial markets, including equities, bonds, real estate, and cryptocurrencies.
What is the expected interest rate change mentioned in the video?
The video mentions a potential interest rate cut from the current 5.38% to below 3% over the next year.
How will lowering interest rates affect money market funds and risk assets?
Lowering interest rates will likely lead to a movement towards risk assets, causing rises in equities, real estate, bonds, Bitcoin, and gold.
What is the significance of gold trading above $2,600 per ounce?
It indicates a potential increase in value due to rising demand, as seen with increasing purchases by countries like China.
What are the speaker's predictions for Bitcoin by the end of 2025?
The speaker predicts Bitcoin could reach $200,000, potentially three to four times higher than its current value.
Does the speaker recommend using leverage for investing in Bitcoin?
The speaker advises against using leverage, suggesting a heavy allocation to Bitcoin without leverage for better risk management.

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Teks

Gulir Otomatis:

00:00:00
hey guys it is Friday September 13th
00:00:03
bitcoin's at 40
00:00:07
59,4 and uh this episode is uh going to
00:00:10
be called the great um the great
00:00:13
interest rate super cycle now as you
00:00:16
guys know I used to be a bond Trader and
00:00:20
uh that meant I watched interest rates
00:00:23
like crazy um and one of my one of my
00:00:27
nicknames was Fred Krueger the MC
00:00:29
because I traded a ton of us uh uh
00:00:34
interest rate Futures uh in particular
00:00:36
liore Futures on the uh Chicago mertile
00:00:40
Exchange and they would always be
00:00:41
calling Fred Krueger the mer pickup to
00:00:44
close my trades at the end of the day
00:00:46
and so I'd have to be come in I'd be
00:00:48
like okay did was that one yours was
00:00:50
that one yours that one yours that one
00:00:51
yours because I would be buying and
00:00:54
selling so many euro dollar Futures so
00:00:56
the Euro dollars is is something that I
00:00:59
trade did a lot of I was very very
00:01:02
involved in you know interest rates and
00:01:06
I got to tell you this is the most
00:01:09
important thing in the world is what is
00:01:12
interest rate policy and is uh Marty Z
00:01:16
who uh was sort of a icon in the stock
00:01:19
market for a long time and you can check
00:01:21
out his old books winning on Wall Street
00:01:23
was one of his books Marty always said
00:01:25
don't fight the fed and uh I think you
00:01:30
cannot underestimate how
00:01:32
important this next cycle is going to be
00:01:35
we are at 5 and 38 right now in interest
00:01:39
rates and uh we are going to have
00:01:42
somewhere between a 25 and a 50 basis
00:01:44
point rate cut um next Wednesday and uh
00:01:50
and we're going to be having some
00:01:51
discussion as to the Future Path of
00:01:53
interest rates but I think the most
00:01:56
important thing is if you look at where
00:01:58
fed fund Futures are trading and I was
00:02:01
just opened that up today and I was just
00:02:04
oh my God interest rates are 5 and 38
00:02:08
the Futures on interest rates on in
00:02:11
December of
00:02:13
2025 are at
00:02:16
um 97 19 which says that the interest
00:02:22
rate that people are betting on the
00:02:24
prediction market for interest rates is
00:02:26
effectively 280 280 so we are the
00:02:30
Market's telling us we're going
00:02:32
from 55% interest rates to something
00:02:36
below 3% in a year that that is a
00:02:39
massive massive move okay and uh when
00:02:44
you have $4 trillion in Money Market
00:02:47
funds they're just sitting there when
00:02:50
you have $200 bill trillion dollar worth
00:02:53
of bonds out there and you lower
00:02:56
interest rates from 5 and 38 to
00:03:00
below 3% which is what is going to
00:03:03
happen you're going to have a flight to
00:03:06
risk assets what does that mean that
00:03:08
means equities go up that means real
00:03:12
estate goes up okay that means
00:03:16
um bonds go
00:03:18
up and that means Bitcoin goes up and I
00:03:24
and and and it also means gold goes up
00:03:26
and we're starting to see that gold
00:03:28
today for the first time ever first time
00:03:31
ever trading above $2,600 per ounce um
00:03:36
and that really should tell you because
00:03:38
there's no Mount gaau of gold there's
00:03:40
nobody there's no Germany selling uh
00:03:43
their gold reserves in fact it's the
00:03:45
exact oppos it China is buying tons of
00:03:47
gold and I think this is going to happen
00:03:50
to bitcoin but even even more right so
00:03:54
we are in a potentially absolutely
00:03:57
explosive um scenario for
00:04:00
2025 uh really starting really starting
00:04:03
after this election but for the next the
00:04:06
next 12 months could be just absolutely
00:04:09
explosive on the upside for
00:04:12
Bitcoin um you know I I definitely think
00:04:16
something like 200,000 is is definitely
00:04:19
in the cards for end of 2025 we could be
00:04:22
at something like three to four times
00:04:24
higher than where we are now I think
00:04:27
it's going to be an absolutely amazing
00:04:30
using uh risk return I would not play it
00:04:35
with too much leverage um if you want to
00:04:38
have any leverage at all I prefer no
00:04:40
leverage I always prefer no leverage uh
00:04:43
but I I think you should be heavily
00:04:46
allocated to bitcoin I think it's going
00:04:48
to do extremely well so that's my little
00:04:51
uh video for today if you follow me on
00:04:53
YouTube please hit the Subscribe button
00:04:56
it helps my reach on YouTube and again
00:04:59
thanks for following me and uh I'll
00:05:02
catch you soon