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hey everybody Peter Zion here coming to
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you from Egmont National Park uh that's
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mount taniki in the background and I'm
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walking through the auk kawakawa swamp
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uh which is non-standard anyway um we're
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going to continue talking about the
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consequences of the fall of the Syrian
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government and today we're going to
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cover Israel there's an old adage going
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back to the late 70s uh that says that
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there is no war without Egypt and no
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peace without Syria the last major
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Israeli uh Arab conflict was in 1973 and
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it ended it was a surprise attack um
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that probably shouldn't have happened
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but it ended with a resounding Israeli
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Victory and after that it set the stage
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for peace talks with the Egyptians which
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concluded under Jimmy Carter in 1979 but
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Syria always stayed on the outside and
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the whole concept of that phrase is that
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Israel is a vulnerable state and until
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it has peace with all of its neighbors
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it has peace with none of its neighbors
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uh because there just isn't any
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strategic de
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but now the situation has changed uh and
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there is an opportunity here for Israel
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to do a few things differently should it
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so choose uh the border with Egypt is
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internationally monitored and Egypt is
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as close to a friend as the Israelis
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have in the region um and that provides
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some strategic opportunities here
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especially since now that the uh
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Northeastern border is open so this is
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going to take a few places uh first of
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all the Golan Heights that's a chunk of
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territory that the Israelis captured
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from the syrians in a series of conflict
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throughout uh the 20th century uh it
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hasn't really been settled because
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there's always this idea that there was
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eventually going to be a land for peace
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deal well that doesn't have to happen
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now so you should expect to see the
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Israelis make the most of what is
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actually some significantly fertile
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territory that uh could help a country
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that Imports over half of its food
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stuffs uh second the remaining security
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concerns are now somewhat limited uh
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there's this thing called the Shia
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Crescent that starts in Iran goes
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through Iraq Northern Syria and into
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Lebanon and the idea is this is the area
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that the Iranians would use to project
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power and one of the big fuckups that
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the Americans did with the Iraq war is
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basically shatter what was an Arab Sunni
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power that ruled that area and allowed
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the Iranians to penetrate into the
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region very very deeply they don't
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control Iraq but they're certainly the
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first Power in the country well now with
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Syria broken uh the Shia cresant has
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been cut in half and the Iranians can no
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longer drive or even reliably fly
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equipment or arms or men uh to the
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western part of the Crescent which means
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that Hezbollah which is the militant
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group that the Iranians founded and
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sponsored but the syrians managed that
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operates mostly in Lebanon uh is now I
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don't want to say dead that's maybe the
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wrong word but certainly gutted and it
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will have to do with its own resources
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and without the syrians or the Iranians
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to manage them or reinforce them or
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provide them with weapons uh that's not
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a lot and that's before you consider
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that over the last couple of months the
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Israelis have done a a damn solid job of
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gutting the entire uh Hezbollah
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leadership uh so there's still a lot of
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anger there's still plenty of people to
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recruit from but as a functional
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organization Hezbollah is functionally
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gone at this point and with Syria now
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gone there's really no way to
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rehabilitate it very quickly uh this is
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not the Cold War this is not a period of
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heavy globalization where Freedom of the
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Seas is sacren this is a world where if
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you want to get equipment from A to B
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you have to basically get it there
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yourselves and provide the military
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escort that's necessary and Iran's not a
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naval power okay that just leaves where
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this all started in recent days uh Hamas
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in Gaza now my assessment of what's
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going on there really hasn't changed uh
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Hamas uh rules Gaza Gaza is occupied
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territory as long as it's occupied
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territory there will be no end of people
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who are willing to fight the occupiers
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and the occupiers are the Israelis the
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only question is whether or not the
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organization that runs the place can get
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enough equipment and weapons uh to fight
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back in a meaningful way like they did
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uh a year ago October when they did that
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big assault that killed a thousand
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people uh the Israelis are in the
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process of crunching it down they're
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building a cordon in the edge of Gaza um
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and then cutting it in half basically
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splitting into tiny little cantons that
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they feel they can manage more directly
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now this will guarantee that the
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population will all always be hostile to
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them but you're talking about a
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low-level simmering Insurgency as
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opposed to something that could generate
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the military organization that's
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necessary to actually attack a state so
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it's ugly it will continue to be ugly in
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fact it will probably from a human
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rights point of view and a starvation
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point of view get uglier but that
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doesn't mean it's a threat to the state
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of Israel and that's everybody uh
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everyone
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around uh Israel has now been clipped or
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befriended Jordan is basically an
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economic satellite who's indirectly
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sponsored by Israel in the United States
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Egypt is relatively friendly Lebanon in
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a good day is a failed State and without
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Hezbollah they might actually be able to
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make a go of being a semi is kind of
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sort of normal State and Iran lacks the
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ability to uh dick around in Israeli
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Affairs so long as there is no Syria now
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uh there's two things to keep in mind
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for longer term first of all Syria
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itself
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one of the reasons that the Israelis
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never got involved in the Syrian Civil
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War is they felt that if the majority in
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Syria was able to take control the Sunni
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Arabs then they would be dealing with
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something like Gaza and Hamas but on a
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much larger scale and so they didn't
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like Assad or Assad Syria but they felt
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it was the least bad option so as
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whatever post Assad Syria consolidates
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into a new form the Israelis are going
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to be acting very very cautiously going
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to be watching very very closely and
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there may based on the way way politics
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evolves may be a strong far stronger
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case for Israeli intervention in post
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Civil War Syria than there was during
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Civil War Syria of course we'll probably
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have a second Civil War now all the
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Sunni Arabs figure out who's in charge
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so as long as it hasn't Consolidated
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Israel's fine once it starts to
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consolidate Israel is going to be
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watching very closely because it might
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not like the form that it takes what's
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next uh second and the bigger question
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the longer term question and the
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question that ultimately is going to
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occupy uh Israeli strategic thinkers for
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decades is the relationship with turkey
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now in the past the pre- Israel Jews got
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along with the Ottoman Empire and during
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the Cold War the Israelis got along with
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Cold War era turkey but that is not
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where we are right now turkey is in the
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process of redefining what it is to be
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Turkish and based on how that definition
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goes there may or may not be room for
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Israel in that definition uh the issue
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is is that turkey is a major power and
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there is nothing that Israel could ever
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do to change that and so Israel is stuck
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dealing with whatever the new Turkish
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identity happens to be now me taking the
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armchair
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look a a turkey that partners with
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Israel is one that de facto controls the
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entire Eastern Mediterranean Egypt would
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probably be brought along for the ride
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and it becomes a major regional power in
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its own right and Israel that doesn't
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get along with turkey is one that is
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locked down in a series of local
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conflicts uh that greatly sap its power
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and its ability to project in any
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direction so if the government of turkey
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can decide that Jews are okay then we go
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One Direction and for the powers of
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Europe all of a sudden turkey is a major
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player that can't be ignored if the
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Turkish leadership decides that the Jews
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are the problem then we have a very
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different situation where the Europeans
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side with the Israelis to keep the Turks
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boxed up now that is a debate and a
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question and a time frame that will be
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decided years from now but now that
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Syria has been broken that is the next
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big thing on the Israeli and the Turkish
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agenda
