00:00:00
so piler had an amazing ride for the
00:00:02
past two years going all the way from $6
00:00:04
to $80 in the span of two years but
00:00:07
yesterday was a complete slaughterhouse
00:00:09
the stock Dove off a cliff losing 8% in
00:00:13
a single day and today as of the making
00:00:16
of this video at least the stock is
00:00:17
still down in pre-market so who knows
00:00:20
when this thing stops now in this video
00:00:23
I'll explain to you what happened why
00:00:26
the stock is down and if I think the
00:00:28
stock is going to keep coming down where
00:00:30
this stops and more importantly what my
00:00:33
strategy is going forward with paler now
00:00:36
the entire Market Dove of a cliff
00:00:38
yesterday paler was no different when
00:00:40
the FED sneezes everybody gets wet some
00:00:44
more some less a stock that is extremely
00:00:46
volatile and highly correlated to the
00:00:49
market like paler with a beta of almost
00:00:51
three it's going to get wet a lot more
00:00:53
than others now yesterday just to keep a
00:00:56
long story extremely short we had some
00:00:58
macro data that showed the the economy
00:01:00
is stronger than people thought which
00:01:02
basically leads people to think that the
00:01:04
FED might not cut rates at the same Pace
00:01:07
they promised to begin with and that
00:01:09
basically sent people to panic mode
00:01:11
everybody got wet paler included but
00:01:14
paler actually had some extra oomph to
00:01:17
their drop because Kathy Wood sold some
00:01:20
paler stock and again people freaked out
00:01:23
now in my personal opinion Kathy Wood
00:01:26
has as much to do with Innovation Tech
00:01:28
and understanding of palent
00:01:30
is my grandpa's balls to space travel
00:01:32
but that's just my own opinion maybe I'm
00:01:34
completely wrong on this I pay no
00:01:36
attention to what she's doing with paler
00:01:38
she has the long track record of trading
00:01:40
this stock and not long-term investing
00:01:42
so I don't care when she buys I don't
00:01:44
care what she sells good luck to her
00:01:46
good luck to her fund it's none of my
00:01:48
concern but you have to understand in a
00:01:51
world filled with trading Bots and this
00:01:54
news comes in Kathy Wood sales paler
00:01:56
talk and we have macro data that's
00:01:58
sending the entire Market down there's
00:02:00
going to be selling pressure extremely
00:02:03
extremely powerful especially with a
00:02:06
stock like paler which is very very
00:02:08
volatile and on top of it we had Morgan
00:02:10
Stanley come out and say well you know
00:02:12
pener is a great company great
00:02:14
technology longterm it has a bright
00:02:15
future ahead but short term it is
00:02:18
slightly overvalued we expect that the
00:02:20
stock is going to drop to the 60s in
00:02:22
fact they gave it a $60 price Target and
00:02:24
what seems to be a self-fulfilling
00:02:26
prophecy at this point because their
00:02:28
bearish Outlook again nudg the stock
00:02:30
even further to the cliff dropping it
00:02:32
along with Cathy wood along with the
00:02:34
rest of the market and on top of it we
00:02:35
had of course Jim Kramer come out just a
00:02:38
couple hours before the tumble started
00:02:41
come out and say that Peter is the best
00:02:43
things in slic bread it's chef's kiss
00:02:45
and you know when Kramer says these
00:02:47
things this is what tends to happen the
00:02:49
man is undefeated I'm joking of course
00:02:51
no disrespect but as a new investor I
00:02:54
totally understand why you might panic I
00:02:58
understand why you feel anxious why you
00:02:59
tress I get it I've been there I
00:03:02
understand you haven't seen this before
00:03:05
all you've seen is just the stock green
00:03:07
all day long for two years I understand
00:03:10
you might be thinking did I screw up did
00:03:12
I make a mistake should have I sold
00:03:14
earlier is it time to get out now and
00:03:17
cut my losses all of these questions are
00:03:20
absolutely normal so I'm not going to
00:03:21
judge you on it I'm not going to call
00:03:23
you out that in fact I'm going to
00:03:25
confirm that this is absolutely normal
00:03:27
and even though a lot of people do not
00:03:29
admit this this is what most people
00:03:31
think and to this I only have one answer
00:03:34
which is relax relax my guy relax
00:03:38
everything that's going on right now is
00:03:40
absolutely freaking normal allow me to
00:03:42
explain you see penter is what you call
00:03:46
the high beta stock which means that it
00:03:48
has a very very high correlation to the
00:03:50
rest of the market when the market is
00:03:52
happy just a little bit you know like a
00:03:54
little smile like pal like the same kind
00:03:58
of stock that behaves like the in good
00:04:00
times when the macro data comes out and
00:04:03
it's not great and when there's also
00:04:05
other negative Catalyst like Kathy Wood
00:04:07
selling and you have the Morgan Stanley
00:04:10
stuff going on that pushes the stock a
00:04:13
lot further than the rest of the market
00:04:15
and that is the flip side a highly
00:04:17
reactive stock like paler is going to
00:04:18
behave in an overreactive manner upwards
00:04:21
and downwards and yesterday you saw an
00:04:23
example of downwards but it's important
00:04:25
to remember when in doubt zoom out the
00:04:29
stock is up
00:04:30
320% in the past 12 months it hasn't
00:04:33
taken the Breather in 2 years it's okay
00:04:37
for the stock to correct a little bit
00:04:39
that's fine in fact it may even drop
00:04:42
further oh my god did I just say that
00:04:45
yes it may drop further because in the
00:04:48
short term the market can be insanely
00:04:51
irrational insanely unpredictable you
00:04:54
think of a kid that just had five
00:04:56
chocolate bars and is basically running
00:04:58
Zoomies in your living room that's the
00:05:00
market in the short term you don't know
00:05:02
how bad it's going to get before it
00:05:04
stops nobody knows and if it's going to
00:05:06
drop further what do you do do you sell
00:05:08
now do you buy now do you buy later do
00:05:11
you wait for it to stop do you wait for
00:05:12
it to come up again I'm going to explain
00:05:14
everything right now do not worry I'm
00:05:16
going to give you all the strategies so
00:05:19
first of all you have to understand that
00:05:20
you need to fight the Panic you need to
00:05:23
eliminate the emotions out of your
00:05:25
investing and fighting the Panic that's
00:05:27
the best strategy in your investing
00:05:30
journey and it's quite easily achievable
00:05:33
by doing one thing and one thing only
00:05:36
the worst enemy of panic is logic once
00:05:39
you introduce logic Panic is like one of
00:05:43
them bullies in high school it folds you
00:05:45
see because you have to make a list and
00:05:48
in that list you have to write down what
00:05:52
inspired you what made you start
00:05:54
investing in paler right if you bought
00:05:57
paler because the stock went up and you
00:06:00
thought you're going to make money based
00:06:02
on the momentum congratulations you have
00:06:04
played yourself because now you have
00:06:06
nothing to lean on you have no
00:06:08
conviction in the stock you don't
00:06:10
understand what's going on you're
00:06:11
freaking out you're panicking if the
00:06:12
only reason you bought the stock is
00:06:14
because you expected it's going to go up
00:06:16
higher and now it's going down lower
00:06:19
well congratulations you're screwed I
00:06:21
have nothing to give you except a solid
00:06:23
advice my advice to you go learn about
00:06:27
the stock figure out what it is you bot
00:06:30
and try to understand if it's a good
00:06:32
investment long-term fundamentally
00:06:34
otherwise you're basically playing a
00:06:36
Rigg game against yourself now if you
00:06:39
made a list and if based on that list
00:06:42
the fundamental Reasons by which you've
00:06:45
decided to invest in the stocks have not
00:06:48
changed over the past 24 hours Alex karp
00:06:51
is still the CEO the profitability is
00:06:53
still the same the stickiness of the
00:06:55
product is still the same the balance
00:06:57
sheet still looks great cash flow looks
00:06:59
great they haven't lost a single
00:07:01
contract in fact pet till is currently
00:07:04
basically the number one phone call from
00:07:06
the White House except Elon right so
00:07:09
with all of this I don't see anything
00:07:12
fundamental that may cause me to doubt
00:07:15
my initial investment so if that is the
00:07:17
case right what do I do well you see
00:07:21
it's actually one of the most stupid
00:07:23
things that people do in these sort of
00:07:25
times now today might be a slow sample
00:07:30
size of what actually happens when the
00:07:31
market takes a dive when the market
00:07:34
takes a dive and your favorite stock is
00:07:36
down what most people are going to do
00:07:39
despite what they say despite what they
00:07:41
promise despite what they say Discord
00:07:43
and the great commitment to conviction
00:07:45
and buying the dip most people most
00:07:48
retail investors actually sell the dip
00:07:50
because they freak out everybody has a
00:07:53
price everybody has a breaking point if
00:07:56
a stock is down 5% they're going to say
00:07:58
yeah sure I'll DCA
00:08:00
I'm actually going to buy a little bit
00:08:01
of it because it dips I'm going to buy
00:08:02
the dip then it dips another 5% and they
00:08:05
like okay I'll still buy the dip and
00:08:06
then it dips another 5% and they're like
00:08:09
uh okay okay I'll buy the dip and then
00:08:10
it dips another 10% at this point they
00:08:12
say oh my God oh my God oh my God oh my
00:08:14
God maybe I've got it all wrong maybe
00:08:16
palen is hot trash I'm down already 25%
00:08:19
and then you say well okay I'm going to
00:08:20
give it one less go and you buy it again
00:08:22
and it's dip another 5% and now you're
00:08:25
panicking and now you're fully emotional
00:08:27
and now you're going to sell because
00:08:29
you're in full emotional mode and you're
00:08:31
going to sell it to people like me who
00:08:34
are going to buy this absolutely calmly
00:08:36
because we understand what we're getting
00:08:37
a huge discount on a product that only
00:08:39
got better over the past two years and
00:08:41
then the moment you sell is the moment
00:08:44
the market is going to flip and you're
00:08:45
going to be sitting yourself basically
00:08:47
to fail and that's the part I don't want
00:08:49
to see happen now I don't know what's
00:08:50
going to happen to paler stock I don't
00:08:52
know but there's one thing I do know if
00:08:55
you try and time this if you try and say
00:08:57
oh my God I want to sell now I'm going
00:08:59
to wait for the stock to climb back up
00:09:01
again and going to start buying again
00:09:02
that's not necessarily the best idea you
00:09:04
see if you miss the top 10 days over a
00:09:07
course of 20 years in the market your
00:09:10
turns will be slashed by half just by
00:09:12
losing 10 days in 20 years and you know
00:09:15
what crazy is crazy is is that
00:09:18
statistically speaking the best days
00:09:21
usually come after the worst days some
00:09:23
of the best days in the market came
00:09:25
after the redest craziest days ever
00:09:29
sometimes it's absolutely unpredictable
00:09:30
the market crashes then the next day
00:09:32
boof and you missed it now the thing
00:09:35
here is very very simple we've been
00:09:37
through this and we know exactly what's
00:09:39
going on in fact it's not me even saying
00:09:41
this Jack Boggle has a famous video
00:09:44
where he says that selling in a high
00:09:46
conviction stock when the stock is
00:09:47
heading down contradicts the whole
00:09:50
purpose of DCA it's moronic it's stupid
00:09:52
it's not me saying it's Jake Bogle
00:09:53
saying it now we in the paler Community
00:09:55
have been through this before it's not
00:09:56
our first rodeo right you guys may not
00:09:58
remember this if you joined the market
00:09:59
over the past 2 years but we bought the
00:10:02
stock when it went public at $10 then
00:10:05
the stock shot up to 35 35 oh my God
00:10:08
we're rich stock drops to $6 80% of
00:10:12
people sold to me and my friends in the
00:10:14
paler Community we bought it at 6 at 10
00:10:17
at 12 at 15 at 20 25 at 30 35 and 40 you
00:10:20
get the point and now it's at 80 and now
00:10:23
the big question is is this a small
00:10:25
temporary dip or is it a big dip I don't
00:10:28
know now I use objective parameters that
00:10:30
are designed to stop me from doing
00:10:32
stupid things I look at pal and I say
00:10:34
okay AI is everywhere it's taking over
00:10:36
the world AIP the system of paler is
00:10:40
essentially monopolizing the operating
00:10:41
system of AI clients are talking about 9
00:10:44
to 12 months cycles in which the
00:10:46
software literally pays for itself 60%
00:10:48
faster times from insight to decision
00:10:51
and we haven't even talked about the
00:10:53
fact that it is insanely oversubscribed
00:10:57
there people standing in line to try and
00:10:58
get into door to talk to paler the same
00:11:01
thing that happen to Nvidia on the
00:11:03
infrastructure side is happening on the
00:11:05
software side all you got to do is just
00:11:06
talk to clients and talk to experts from
00:11:09
the industry they'll tell you this I've
00:11:11
actually done this and I suggest you do
00:11:12
the same now if it is an overreactive
00:11:15
market like we're seeing right now
00:11:16
because of all the shortterm trading
00:11:18
that's done by Bots and my thesis has
00:11:21
not changed about the stock and my time
00:11:24
Horizon has not changed which is 10
00:11:26
years plus if my time Horizon did not
00:11:28
change I need liquidity in the next 10
00:11:30
years and this money and my thesis did
00:11:32
not change this is a discount and a
00:11:35
buying opportunity for me but so in my
00:11:37
opinion and my research you do you you
00:11:40
do your research and you do your work
00:11:41
it's not Financial advice I'm not
00:11:42
telling you to buy pal I'm saying I'm
00:11:44
going to buy here because I understand
00:11:46
that stocks don't go up in a straight
00:11:48
line stocks go up and down and up and
00:11:51
down and up and down eventually they go
00:11:52
up and every time it goes down I'm
00:11:55
buying because I have high conviction in
00:11:57
the stock because I'm convinced that
00:11:59
this stock is going to be huge and
00:12:01
that's why I see this as a discount and
00:12:03
if it drops another 10% another 15% Well
00:12:06
everybody's freaking out I'm going to be
00:12:08
buying more and more I'll talk about
00:12:10
that in a second how you can have enough
00:12:12
money to buy more and more at all times
00:12:14
now how high can paler be in 5 to 10
00:12:17
years again nobody really knows but in
00:12:19
my opinion the floor is Salesforce CRM a
00:12:23
really really good B2B business $300
00:12:27
billion company which is three times
00:12:30
higher than it is right now so the floor
00:12:31
the bare case of paler is 3x from here
00:12:34
in the next 5 to 10 years not going to
00:12:35
complain that happens but the ceiling in
00:12:37
my opinion is somewhere around paler
00:12:39
going to be the next Microsoft and if
00:12:41
that's the case we're talking 10x 20x
00:12:43
from here maybe even further if that's
00:12:46
the case there's no point for me to get
00:12:48
stressed out about the stock dropping
00:12:49
from 80 to 64 or 80 to 60 or 80 to 55 it
00:12:54
doesn't matter it does not matter if
00:12:56
this is the next Microsoft who cares
00:12:58
it's a discount and that's why I'm not
00:13:00
worried and that's what we teach in the
00:13:01
academy now in the academy we have a
00:13:03
system which we Implement and it kind of
00:13:05
goes to talk about the next stage of
00:13:07
this right what's my strategy well I
00:13:09
look at the stock going all the way to
00:13:11
$80 setting a new 52 we high at $80 so
00:13:14
in my head based on the system that we
00:13:16
CH the academy in my head 20% below the
00:13:20
52 Weg high would be $64 so me and my
00:13:23
students are looking at the price right
00:13:25
now and saying well if it goes below $64
00:13:28
which is 20% below the 52 we High that's
00:13:31
a double down DCA opportunity for us
00:13:34
based on our system you do you I'm just
00:13:36
telling you my system the one I teach
00:13:38
and the next question might be well Tom
00:13:39
how do you have enough money to do that
00:13:41
how can you double down right well
00:13:43
that's another thing we teach in the
00:13:44
academy we teach you how to basically
00:13:46
set yourself up for Success right we
00:13:48
teach you to do a budget in that budget
00:13:50
determine how much free cash flow you
00:13:51
have at the end of the month to invest
00:13:53
invest half the other half goes into a
00:13:56
fund we call it a double down DCA fund
00:13:59
it sits in 5% and then when you need to
00:14:01
deploy more cash when a stock you invest
00:14:04
in dips below the 20% line of the 502
00:14:07
week high you take it from The Double
00:14:09
Down fund the first thing you do after
00:14:10
this video is you make a list and you
00:14:12
make sure that your thesis is still
00:14:14
intact about paler number two you check
00:14:16
that your time Horizon is still very
00:14:18
very long you don't need the money in
00:14:19
the next year so you don't care about
00:14:21
short-term volatility then you figure
00:14:24
out how much money you have how much
00:14:25
money you have to DCA how much money you
00:14:27
have to double down you check the price
00:14:29
to see if P hits 64 or below and then
00:14:32
you set a DCA order that will go through
00:14:35
automatically if it happens and you take
00:14:37
a walk at the beach you watch some
00:14:39
Netflix you do something relaxing with
00:14:41
zero stress and zero zero anxiety now
00:14:44
again this is the stuff we teach in the
00:14:46
academy people have been asking me about
00:14:49
it we have a few more spots left I'm
00:14:51
going to shut it down probably the next
00:14:53
few days for a couple of weeks we need
00:14:54
time to settle in but if you want to
00:14:56
join in this few days you go to
00:14:57
patreon.com you sign up for the academy
00:15:01
and you watch the 40 lectures we already
00:15:03
have in place that are Sav for you to
00:15:05
watch that will teach you everything I
00:15:07
talk about here and way way deeper 40
00:15:10
lessons about investing that's going to
00:15:11
make you a better long-term investor and
00:15:13
plus you get to participate in four
00:15:15
lectures that we do every single month
00:15:18
live or recorded your choice and on top
00:15:20
of that if you join and you're not happy
00:15:23
within 30 days ping me text me DM me
00:15:27
I'll give you a refund and I'll send you
00:15:29
on your way no questions asked that's
00:15:31
how I'm certain of the system I'll see
00:15:33
you next time bye
