00:00:00
some companies in the market are trading
00:00:02
at extreme valuations in fact we knowe
00:00:05
some that are significantly higher than
00:00:07
the historical averages and it makes no
00:00:09
surprise then when we do look at the
00:00:11
performance of the average investor over
00:00:14
a 20-year period we can see they've
00:00:16
returned 2.1% year on-ear whereas when
00:00:19
we look at if they had just put the
00:00:21
money in the S&P they would have
00:00:23
returned
00:00:24
88.2% so that is why the phrase
00:00:26
typically goes that it's best to just
00:00:28
put money in the mp on a monthly basis
00:00:31
and not worry about individual stocks
00:00:34
any news that is coming on the daily
00:00:36
basis having said that we do want to
00:00:38
look at seven stocks that we do believe
00:00:40
are at a sell point we're going to run
00:00:42
through exactly why that is we're going
00:00:44
to talk about the valuation as well how
00:00:47
much upside we see what are wall
00:00:48
Street's thoughts and also just dig a
00:00:51
little bit deeper now the first one is
00:00:53
Starbucks we can see over the last year
00:00:55
they are up around 16% over the last 10
00:00:58
years they've underperformed although
00:01:00
marginally the SNP up 142% and right now
00:01:04
they are trading at the upper end of the
00:01:06
52e range only Wall Street consider this
00:01:08
company to be a buy with a 3.57 rating
00:01:11
but it's not far off the 3.5 3.49 that
00:01:15
would also make them consider this to be
00:01:16
a hold and we do know they do pay
00:01:19
dividend currently the yield sits at
00:01:21
2.3% now first thing to note in terms of
00:01:24
their earnings over the last four
00:01:25
quarters they've not been the greatest
00:01:27
they did Miss on two of them so a 50%
00:01:30
track record what is nice to see though
00:01:31
their most recent earnings they did have
00:01:33
a beat but over the next four quarters
00:01:36
they only anticipate two of them to be
00:01:38
positive growth so bear that in mind and
00:01:40
if we look to the next full accounting
00:01:42
period based on the earnings per share
00:01:43
the forward P would sit at just below 30
00:01:46
so no surprises why we do get an F for
00:01:48
the valuation score because it is
00:01:50
significantly above the sector median of
00:01:52
18 meaning you are paying a
00:01:55
103% premium if you do buy this company
00:01:58
now but interestingly it isn't too
00:01:59
follow off their 5year average and if we
00:02:01
do look no matter which valuation metric
00:02:04
you do use for Starbucks Corporation
00:02:06
they are trading at massive premiums to
00:02:08
the overall sector now that's not
00:02:10
typically an issue if their growth does
00:02:11
look to be promising but we can see
00:02:13
their grading does come in at a c minus
00:02:16
year onye Revenue has been negative 1.5%
00:02:19
that is lower than the sector which
00:02:21
actually comes in at low single digit of
00:02:23
2.5% but significantly lower than their
00:02:25
5year average of 7.6 forward looking
00:02:28
they anticipate 3 point 63 whilst that
00:02:31
is marginally above the sector median
00:02:33
still quite some way away from their
00:02:34
5year average of 9% but one thing that
00:02:37
is pretty disappointing to see is the
00:02:39
earnings per share which we did briefly
00:02:40
show they anticipate just under 10%
00:02:43
growth over the next 3 to five that is
00:02:45
lower than bothy comparative for the
00:02:47
sector at 10.5 as well as their
00:02:49
historical numbers of 15% now it doesn't
00:02:52
stop there as we do want to cover a few
00:02:54
different valuations the first one is
00:02:56
basing it on their 5-year average P
00:02:58
where we do get the overvalue valuation
00:03:00
signal now bear in mind the blue tunnel
00:03:02
does show us the expected fair price two
00:03:04
things I do want you to note first one
00:03:06
can you see the intrinsic value has been
00:03:08
decreasing over the last year not
00:03:10
typically a good sign to note and the
00:03:12
second thing we can see is that right
00:03:14
now the stock price does sit above even
00:03:17
the upper end of the fair price giving
00:03:19
us our first severe overvaluation signal
00:03:22
and then we can also look here at the
00:03:24
forward P 34.5 which is above their
00:03:27
5year average another what we would
00:03:29
consider consider to be an overvaluation
00:03:31
signal and when we do run it through our
00:03:33
own valuation process we get to an
00:03:35
intrinsic value of
00:03:37
$93 now remember when we do our deep
00:03:39
Dives on the company we do talk about
00:03:41
the inputs and outputs running through
00:03:43
each one of these models however today
00:03:45
we're running through quite a numerous
00:03:46
number of stocks so we just want to
00:03:48
highlight here that given the price is
00:03:50
$17 we see this company trading at quite
00:03:53
a large premium to the intrinsic value
00:03:56
something we just showed you on another
00:03:58
model comparative as well for those that
00:04:00
do want to see at a 10% margin of safety
00:04:02
you would need to consider buying at $84
00:04:05
at 15% 79 and at 20% 74 so right now we
00:04:09
would definitely say this is not a
00:04:11
company that we would consider to be a
00:04:12
buy and perhaps if you are someone that
00:04:14
is looking at other opportunities
00:04:16
Starbucks could well be on the sale list
00:04:18
but again give us your thoughts as we go
00:04:20
along today Wall Street as we said they
00:04:22
were pretty much on the fence between a
00:04:24
buy and a hold and we can see right now
00:04:27
they see this company at $19 by the end
00:04:30
of 2025 this indicates only 2% upside
00:04:34
again give us your thoughts below we
00:04:35
also want to let you know we do release
00:04:37
a free weekly article every single
00:04:39
Monday morning where we cover severely
00:04:41
undervalued stocks as well as what's
00:04:43
going on the market over the last few
00:04:45
days so if you click below you can sign
00:04:47
up read straight away where you'll be
00:04:49
able to gain access to a copy that has
00:04:51
been released today of 45 undervalued
00:04:54
stocks for the month of February lots of
00:04:56
information for each one the upside That
00:04:58
Wall Street themselves see over the next
00:05:00
year and on top of that you can grab a
00:05:02
copy of 43 stocks that Wall Street
00:05:05
themselves believe have the most upside
00:05:07
in the S SMP right now so click below
00:05:09
sign up and you can read straight away
00:05:12
the next stock to sell we have here
00:05:14
Apple which is up around 28% over the
00:05:16
last year over the last 10 years they
00:05:18
have massively out formed the S&P up
00:05:21
77% right now trading at the upper end
00:05:24
of the 52e range with again only Wall
00:05:27
Street consider this company a Buy and
00:05:29
they do pay dividend although on the
00:05:30
lowest Spectrum at 42% in terms of their
00:05:34
earnings well green right across the
00:05:35
board which is nice not something we did
00:05:37
see with Starbucks they've outperformed
00:05:39
over the last four quarters 100% track
00:05:42
record and do anticipate growth over the
00:05:44
next four and with September 2026 being
00:05:47
their next full accounting period they
00:05:49
do anticipate the forward PE to lower to
00:05:51
28.5 now if you were to look at the
00:05:53
evaluation probably again no surprises
00:05:56
they do get an F we can see right now if
00:05:58
you are buying this company in
00:06:00
comparison to the sector you are paying
00:06:02
a 25% premium but also in comparison to
00:06:05
the average over the last 5 years they
00:06:07
do trade above the 28.2 again something
00:06:10
that is very reflective no matter which
00:06:12
valuation metric you do take a look at
00:06:14
today for the company and in terms of
00:06:16
the growth again they get a d so not
00:06:18
really warranted You could argue to
00:06:20
trade at a premium year on-ear 2.6%
00:06:23
below both the sector comparative and
00:06:25
their 5-year average and the same to be
00:06:28
said forward looking very minimal growth
00:06:30
for a company that does trade at quite a
00:06:32
premium valuation and the one thing that
00:06:34
is most disappointing again we saw this
00:06:36
with Starbucks EPS over the next 3 to 5
00:06:39
years below both comparatives 9.6 versus
00:06:43
15.1 versus 11.2 in terms of the
00:06:46
valuation again we do get another
00:06:48
overvaluation signal but unlike
00:06:50
Starbucks we do see the expected price
00:06:52
increase it is just that right now it
00:06:54
does sit even above the higher end and
00:06:57
something that is also reflective when
00:06:58
we look at their forward P 31 above 27.5
00:07:02
we also noticed dividend yield theory
00:07:04
for those that are interested telling us
00:07:06
a company's overv valued when the
00:07:08
current yield sits below so for this
00:07:10
company no real surprises here a lot of
00:07:12
indications that it is trading in the
00:07:14
overvaluation zone and in terms of our
00:07:16
intrinsic value remember as well you can
00:07:18
grab a copy of this model by clicking on
00:07:20
the pin comment below running through
00:07:22
your own numbers whether it's for apple
00:07:23
or any others but we see a very similar
00:07:25
scenario that we saw for the previous
00:07:27
stock intrinsically 215 currently
00:07:30
trading above that so it does look like
00:07:32
it is valued at a premium 10% margin of
00:07:34
safety by at 194 at 15% 183 and at 20%
00:07:39
172 W Street themselves they did have a
00:07:41
buy rating but they only see 8% upside
00:07:44
over the next year their price Target
00:07:47
$252 by the end of the year we then move
00:07:49
on to Walmart which is up 78% over the
00:07:52
last year over the last 10 years out
00:07:54
forming the S&P up 238 trading right now
00:07:58
pretty much at a new and its 52 we high
00:08:01
with only a buy rating from Wall Street
00:08:03
but actually this isn't far off the 4.5
00:08:05
for their strong buy and it does pay
00:08:07
yield although below the 1% point if we
00:08:10
look at their earnings again very
00:08:11
impressive green across the board we do
00:08:13
like that it doesn't necessarily mean we
00:08:15
shouldn't sell or consider just holding
00:08:17
it given it does look positive we also
00:08:19
want to understand the valuation and
00:08:21
right now based on January 2026 their
00:08:24
forward P does sit at 36 again if we
00:08:27
compare it they do get an F sitting sign
00:08:29
significantly above the sector
00:08:30
comparative in fact a 143% premium but
00:08:34
also significantly above their own
00:08:36
5-year average something reflected again
00:08:39
pretty much in every single valuation
00:08:41
metric their growth does come in at a c
00:08:43
minus however year on year it is 5.5
00:08:46
above both the sector median and
00:08:47
marginally above their historical
00:08:49
averages and moving forwards the same to
00:08:51
be said although we do notice here the
00:08:53
growth isn't a lot and maybe you would
00:08:55
be expecting a little bit more for a
00:08:57
company that does trade at a very high
00:08:59
forward PE especially in relation to
00:09:01
both sector and their average in terms
00:09:03
of earnings per share well that does
00:09:05
look a little bit more promising under
00:09:06
10% with both two comparatives coming in
00:09:09
the 7 to 8% region in terms of the
00:09:11
valuation well we get another
00:09:13
overvaluation signal here and not only
00:09:15
is it overvalued but notice the gap
00:09:18
between the upper end as well has only
00:09:19
been increasing over the last few months
00:09:22
definitely something to consider and we
00:09:24
can also show you in fact a double
00:09:25
overvaluation signal yield well below
00:09:28
the 5year average and the same to be
00:09:30
said for the forward P well above the
00:09:32
5year again double signal here that this
00:09:35
company is overvalued in terms of our
00:09:37
intrinsic value again we are getting the
00:09:39
same considerations here significantly
00:09:41
below the current price if you wanted a
00:09:43
10% MOS you'd need to wait for 74% at 15
00:09:47
around 70 and at 20 around 66 Wall
00:09:51
Street again even though they have a
00:09:52
near strong bu rating they only see this
00:09:54
at
00:09:55
$11 over the next 12 months which
00:09:58
translates to a measly 3% upside moving
00:10:01
on we have 3M Company up 61% over the
00:10:04
last year over the last 10 years 8% not
00:10:07
looking great but they are trading near
00:10:09
their 52 we High we do get a double buy
00:10:11
rating from Wall Street and Quant and
00:10:13
the yield is on the higher end today at
00:10:16
1.84% if we were to look at their
00:10:18
earnings well out of the next four
00:10:19
quarters three of them they are
00:10:21
expecting growth and nice to see a 100%
00:10:23
track record with their current forward
00:10:25
Peak sitting at just below 20 in
00:10:28
relation to how that Compares well they
00:10:30
get a D+ we do notice it is marginally
00:10:32
lower than the sector so you are getting
00:10:34
a 5% discount but actually it is trading
00:10:37
quite a way above their 5year average
00:10:40
25.5% to be exact and the majority of
00:10:43
valuation here does show it is trading
00:10:45
at a bit of a premium in terms of
00:10:47
looking at their growth well whilst they
00:10:48
do get a B minus we can see over the
00:10:51
last year negative - 25% over the next
00:10:54
12 months netive 9% which is
00:10:56
significantly worse than the sector
00:10:58
median sign signicantly worse than their
00:11:00
5year averages and on top of that very
00:11:03
important to note that over the next 3
00:11:05
to 5 years they are expecting negative
00:11:07
6% growth to in fact their EPS that is
00:11:10
lower than the 11.5 and 4% of the two
00:11:13
comparatives when we get to the
00:11:15
valuation itself we do see a very
00:11:17
similar theme not only above the upper
00:11:19
end but also the Gap is only widening
00:11:22
and we can see when looking at the
00:11:23
forward P 19.5 above the 5year average
00:11:26
which we did just show moments ago we
00:11:28
can't really discussed dividend yield
00:11:30
theory for this company given they did
00:11:32
have a recent dividend cut in terms of
00:11:34
the valuation again although for this
00:11:36
company we do see pretty much trading
00:11:38
right now at its fair value no margin of
00:11:41
safety but 10% 133 at 15% 126 and at 20%
00:11:46
119 terms of Wall Street again we do get
00:11:49
very minimal upside only 3% their price
00:11:51
target for the year
00:11:53
$156 and do give us your thoughts as we
00:11:56
go along today now we do move on to
00:11:58
Caterpillar and I just want to say for
00:12:00
warning that this is probably one that I
00:12:01
would say is more of a 50/50 than the
00:12:04
others in terms of a sell it is over the
00:12:06
last year up 24% over the last 10 years
00:12:09
massively out forming the S&P up
00:12:12
346 currently trading in the mid end of
00:12:15
the 52e range all three analysts
00:12:17
consider this company a hold and we can
00:12:19
see the yield currently sitting at
00:12:22
1.52% over the next four quarters taking
00:12:25
into account it is a cycal industry they
00:12:27
expect negative growth to the EPs and
00:12:30
over the last four they have out formed
00:12:32
on three of them 75% track record
00:12:34
current forward P based on the EPS
00:12:36
sitting at just below 18 valuation they
00:12:39
do get a c minus we can see trading add
00:12:41
a bit of a discount actually to the
00:12:43
sector 13.3% and also a marginal
00:12:46
discount to their 5year average by
00:12:48
around 5.63 although depending on what
00:12:50
valuation metric you look at you can
00:12:52
come to a slightly different conclusion
00:12:55
in terms of growth they do get a D minus
00:12:57
now not looking good but again locality
00:13:00
-3% sector actually better with positive
00:13:02
4% 5e average positive 5% and we can see
00:13:06
very minimal growth expected over the
00:13:08
next 12 months in terms of earnings per
00:13:10
share as well don't expect too much over
00:13:12
the next 3 to 5 years 7.2% below both
00:13:15
the 11.5 and 14.10 of the two
00:13:18
comparatives when we get to the
00:13:20
valuation we actually get a reasonable
00:13:22
signal we do want to highlight it is
00:13:23
towards the Upp end and we can also note
00:13:26
on forward P bases it isn't too far off
00:13:28
however on dividend yield Theory the
00:13:30
overvaluation signal does come through
00:13:32
with the yield 1.52 below the 5year of
00:13:35
2.09 in terms of our valuation actually
00:13:38
for this one maybe the only one we get a
00:13:40
bit of a margin of safety somewhere
00:13:42
between 5 to 10% if you were looking at
00:13:44
this you could in fact argue around the
00:13:46
price a 10% margin of safety the only
00:13:48
issue is according to Wall Street they
00:13:50
do see very minimal upside hence the
00:13:52
hold rating 393 with upside of 6% over
00:13:56
the 12mth period we then move on to
00:13:58
Cisco Systems up 21% over the last year
00:14:01
over the last 10 years underperforming
00:14:02
the S&P up 124 in terms of the 52e range
00:14:06
at the upper end with just a buy rating
00:14:08
from Wall Street and a fairly
00:14:10
respectable 2.64% starting yield when we
00:14:13
look at the earnings we're always great
00:14:15
to see green across the board and based
00:14:17
on their next full accounting period the
00:14:18
forward P does sit at 15.4 if we look at
00:14:22
the grading well they get a see but we
00:14:24
do notice trading at a 36% discount
00:14:26
although it is sitting 16.5% above their
00:14:29
5e average again with this company
00:14:31
depending on which valuation metric use
00:14:33
you could get to a different conclusion
00:14:35
you'll only get to one conclusion though
00:14:37
on the growth not looking good at a d
00:14:39
over the last year negative 9% worse off
00:14:42
than both to two comparatives in terms
00:14:44
of forward looking again both worse off
00:14:46
only looking at 1% over the next 12
00:14:48
months and when we get to the earnings
00:14:50
per share a very measly 4.2%
00:14:53
significantly lower than the sector as
00:14:55
well as the 5year 5.3 if we look at the
00:14:58
valuation again the overvaluations
00:15:00
continue to show in fact it is only
00:15:03
increasing over the last few months in
00:15:04
terms of the gap which does make us
00:15:06
believe we could be entering severe
00:15:08
overvaluation territory we do also
00:15:10
notice both on the yield as well as the
00:15:12
forward P those two sides that do
00:15:14
reconfirm our conclusions and when we
00:15:16
look at the actual valuation we see this
00:15:18
company right now pretty much trading in
00:15:20
line with the fair price if you wanted a
00:15:22
margin of safety of 10% buy at $54 15% a
00:15:26
buy at 51 and at 20% a buy at 4 8 terms
00:15:29
of Wall Street though they only see 5%
00:15:31
upside their price Target $64 we then
00:15:34
move on to Costco maybe no surprises
00:15:36
here but this is up 41% over the last
00:15:38
year over the last 10 years massive
00:15:40
outperformance of the S&P up
00:15:43
559 trading at the upper end of the 52e
00:15:46
range with only Wall Street considering
00:15:47
this a buy and in terms of the divon it
00:15:49
does start at 47% terms of earnings no
00:15:52
one's probably surprised here looking
00:15:54
very good right across the board and
00:15:56
then next full accounting period does
00:15:57
mean the forward piece sit somewhere
00:15:59
around the 4950 region how does that
00:16:02
compare well probably again no surprises
00:16:04
significantly lower sector median
00:16:06
meaning you are paying a
00:16:07
233% premium but also maybe a shocker
00:16:10
here we can see the 5year average is
00:16:13
significantly low it's trading right now
00:16:15
35% higher and you can see the poor
00:16:17
ratings no matter which valuation metric
00:16:20
you look at today in terms of the growth
00:16:21
they do get an F what we really want to
00:16:23
highlight here is for both year- on-year
00:16:25
and forward looking they do sit below
00:16:27
the 5year average so bear this in mind
00:16:29
you've got a company Costco that is
00:16:31
trading at a valuation higher than the
00:16:33
5year average but their revenue figures
00:16:35
are actually lower than their 5year
00:16:37
numbers and when we do compare this to
00:16:39
the earnings per share again conclusion
00:16:41
very similar 9.4 versus 10.1 in terms of
00:16:45
looking at this model again we are
00:16:47
thinking here there will be no surprises
00:16:48
but we can see the Gap only increase
00:16:51
over time this is well into severe
00:16:53
overvaluation territory and this is
00:16:55
again confirmed on these two valuation
00:16:58
models as well in terms of the actual
00:17:00
process that we run through well we see
00:17:01
this significantly lower in terms of an
00:17:04
intrinsic price in relation to the price
00:17:06
right now and if you wanted to see the
00:17:07
MOs a buy 780 with 10% at 15% 736 and at
00:17:13
20% 693 now you can argue we may never
00:17:16
see that but it's always about buying
00:17:18
companies with a sufficient margin of
00:17:19
safety that will satisfy you and your
00:17:22
investment thesis and even though Wall
00:17:24
Street may consider this a buy they only
00:17:26
see this with 9% upside a 1, $59 price
00:17:30
Target at the end of 2025 as always do
00:17:32
give us your thoughts in the comments
00:17:34
below don't forget to sign up to the
00:17:35
free Weekly News Eda grab those
00:17:37
spreadsheets come and join us in patreon
00:17:38
where we do cover our weekly buys and
00:17:40
sells and in fact we did make some
00:17:42
purchases and selles just over the last
00:17:44
few days as always have a great day
00:17:46
we'll see you all on the next one
![Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart - All Bosses [No Damage, Max Difficulty]](https://ruhnrawpgxrzdrgaohnf.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/images/video/UPAzVve49g8/thumbnail.jpg)
