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Good day. Today is Wednesday, 4th June,
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2025. And this is going to be an
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especially short vid video. It is made
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late at night tonight because I have had
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a very, very full day here in Georgia,
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meeting my hosts, attending a
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conference, being provided with a tour
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um around the city, getting an overall
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sense of the situation here in Georgia.
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I will be doing a fuller discussion of
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my impressions of Georgia and of the
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situation here in another program. But
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what I will say for the moment is this.
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Georgia has been through a significant
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political crisis over the last few
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months. There was an attempt by the
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opposition which was defeated in the
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parliamentary elections to contest the
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outcome. Western governments supported
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the opposition.
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in these protests as did Georgia's
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president, a former French diplomat who
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for a certain period of time refused to
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accept the expiry of her term.
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Nonetheless, and notwithstanding and
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despite many claims that I've read and
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heard in the media in the west about the
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situation in Georgia and in particular
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in the capital Tili being unstable.
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My quick
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impression after being here for a few
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days is that on the contrary the
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situation is is overall stable. That the
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government has secure control that
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protests have diminished in scale to the
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extent that they're taking place at all
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and that the economy continues to grow.
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So those are my overall impressions. The
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color revolution so far as I can see has
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failed and I get the strong impression
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that there is little support for the
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opposition even here in Bilisi which I
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was told is the opposition's main
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stronghold. That is all I'm going to say
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about the situation in Georgia today. I
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will be discussing it as I said further
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in future programs. I want to turn now
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back to the situation in Ukraine and I'm
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going to say a few things which have
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happened over the last 24 hours because
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the key leaders in this conflict now
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President Putin of Russia and President
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Trump of the United States have each
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made extremely important and very
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interesting statements. Now I am going
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to start with President Putin. President
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Putin called together a meeting of
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government members. This was not a
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meeting of Russia's security council.
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It was a meeting of government members
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and it primarily discussed the attacks
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on the railway trains which have taken
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place in Briansk and Kusk regions and
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which have s resulted in the destruction
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of railway bridges, damage to civilian
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trains and injuries and I believe deaths
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amongst some Russian citizens As I have
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discussed in recent programs, the
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Russian authorities are treating these
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attacks as acts of terrorism. They are
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not treating the attacks on the Russian
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air bases which have attracted so much
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attention in the west as acts of
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terrorism. They appear to acknowledge
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that these were legitimate military
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targets. Now having said that the
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comments that were made over the course
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of this meeting which Putin headed were
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extraordinary. Now at the outset of the
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meeting Putin heard a report from
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Vladimir
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Medinski the head of the Russian
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delegation to the Istanbul talks. He was
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also briefed by the Russian foreign
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minister Sergey
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Lavough. Both Medinski and
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Lavough appeared to tell Putin that no
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though no actual significant progress
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indeed no actual progress at all had
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been made over the course of the
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discussions the negotiations.
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Nonetheless, keeping the format, the
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Istanbul format going, permitting
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thereby contacts to continue between
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Russia and Ukraine in and of itself
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served a useful purpose. Now, Putin
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appears to have listened to all of this
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in stony silence and clearly a very
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angry Putin indeed. then went on to make
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certain very harsh statements which um
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are now reported on the Kremlin's
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website and which I will now um read
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out. He said the recent blowing up of
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railway tracks in the Brians and Kosk
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region is of course a terrorist acts act
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and decisions to commit such crimes were
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of course made in Ukraine at the
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political level. In other words, they
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were made by Zalinski and his officials.
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What I would like to note in this
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regard, of course, everywhere and always
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during armed conflicts to our great
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regret, civilians suffer. But what
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happened in Brians in the Briansk region
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was a targeted attack on civilians and
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according to all international norms,
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such actions are called terrorism. I
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should say quickly and in parenthesis
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that as I discussed in my previous
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video, Putin is actually correct about
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this. Putin then went on to say the
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following. All the crimes that were
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committed against civilians, including
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women and children, on the eve of the
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peace talks we proposed in Istanbul, was
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certainly aimed at disrupting the
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negotiation process. The civilian
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population was deliberately targeted.
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This only confirms our fears that the
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already illegitimate regime in Kiev,
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which once seized power, is gradually
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deter
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degenerating into a terrorist
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organization and its
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sponsors. By sponsors he means the
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western powers perhaps at this time
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principally France and Britain but also
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perhaps Germany also and its sponsors
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are becoming accompllices of terrorists
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terrorists. Let us recall just recently
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the Ukrainian authorities and their
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allies dreamed of a strategic defeat of
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Russia on the battlefield. Today,
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against the backdrop of huge losses,
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retreating along the entire line of
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contact trying to intimidate cut Russia,
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the Kiev leadership has moved on to
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organizing terrorist acts. And at the
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same time, they are asking to suspend
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military actions for 30 or even 60 days
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asking for a meeting at the highest
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level. This is relates to Zalinsk's
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request for a summit meeting between um
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himself and Putin. How can such meetings
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be held in these conditions? What should
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we talk about? Who negotiates with those
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who rely on terror with terrorists? And
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why should they be encouraged by
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providing a restbite in military
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operations that will be used to pump the
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regime with western weapons to continue
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the force mobilization and preparation
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of other terrorist acts similar to those
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that were carried out in Briansk and
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Kusk regions. And then he goes on to say
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that um he will then have a further
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briefing with Lavro and possibly with
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Medinski. But then he goes on to say
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what kind of authorities can the leaders
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of a thoroughly rotten and completely
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corrupt regime have? The whole world is
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talking about this. What kind of
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competence can those be proud of? By
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whose will the Ukrainian armed forces,
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for example, in the Kusk region,
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suffered absolutely senseless, huge
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losses and today suffer one defeat after
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another on the battlefield. We are
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dealing with people who not only do not
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possess any significant competence in
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anything but also elementary political
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culture. if they allow themselves to
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make certain statements and even direct
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insults to those with whom they're
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trying to negotiate about something. As
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for the latest refusal to agree to a
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ceasefire to two for two or three days
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for you humanitarian reasons, this is
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not the first time. It does not surprise
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us, but only convinces us that today's
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regime in Kiev does not need peace at
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all. Peace for it most likely means the
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loss of power and power for the regime
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apparently is more important than peace
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and then the lives of people who they
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apparently do not consider their own. So
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that was Putin. Now those are I think
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the harshest words he has ever used to
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describe the government in Kiev. He said
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very harsh things about them in the
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past, but I think this goes further than
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anything else he has ever said
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previously at any time. And I have to
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say, reading those statements, it seems
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to me that Putin is now questioning the
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purpose and point of any
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negotiations with the authorities in
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Kiev at all. Um, he says, "How can such
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meetings be held in these conditions?
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What should we talk about? Who
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negotiates with those who rely on terror
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with terrorists? And why should they be
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encouraged by providing a resppite in
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military operations that will be used to
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pump the regime with western weapons to
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continue the force mobilization and
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preparation of other terrorist acts
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similar to those that were carried out
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in Brians and Ksk region. Now, to me, as
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I said, that looks like Putin at this
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particular and specific moment calling
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into question the entire purpose of
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negotiations with the Ukrainian
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authorities at all. But in some respects
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there was something else he said which I
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thought at least equally important and
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that was the way in which he described
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what he called the regime in Kiev and
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again I quote him. This only confirms
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our fears that the already illegitimate
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regime in Kiev, which once seized power,
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is gradually degenerating into a
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terrorist organization and its sponsors
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are becoming accompllices of terrorists.
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Now, up to this time, the Russian
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military operation in
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Ukraine has been conducted as a special
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military operation.
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I have floated in the possibility the
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possibility in the past that the
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Russians might choose at some point to
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upgrade this special military operation
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into an anti-terrorist
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organization which would change the
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entire character of the war. It would,
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for example, were that to happen, mean
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that the Russian authorities would
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authorize themselves to go
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chasing and seeking the death or capture
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of prominent Ukrainian officials,
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including conceivably President Zalinski
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himself. After all, over the course of
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these words, Putin has himself said that
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the attacks in Brians and Kusk were
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authorized by Ukraine at a political
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level.
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Now recently in his speech in his
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comments to the media on 11th May 2025,
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the comments over the course of which
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Putin proposed direct negotiations with
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the Ukrainians in Istanbul on the 15th
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of May, resulting in the meeting between
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the Russians and the Ukrainians which
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took place in Istanbul on the 16th of
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May over the course of that discussion,
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those comments to the media, Putin used
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for the first time, and I have verified
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this, for the first time the words war
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to describe the conflict which is taking
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place in Ukraine today.
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And whilst anti-terrorist operation, if
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that is what this conflict is now
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upgraded to, would still fall short in
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Russian legal and military terminology
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of an allout war. It is clearly heading
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in that direction. Of course, going back
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to what I said
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previously, if the Russians have
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decided, if Putin himself has decided
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that the moment has come to end the
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negotiations, to treat the authorities
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in Kiev as terrorists, to treat the
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entire government in Kiev, what he
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refers to as the il illegitimate regime
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in Kiev. And note that he is s he is
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basically saying that it beca that it is
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illegitimate not because Zalinski has
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outstayed his term but because of the
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way in which it gained power through an
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illegal coup which took place in
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February 2014. Well, in the event that
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all of this is the case, then obviously
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negotiations with that regime cannot
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take place because Russian law and
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Russian policy is that Russia does not
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negotiate with terrorist organizations.
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Now reading these comments, it's
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important to say that no final decision
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has been made. And both Medinski and
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Lavough over the course of this meeting
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went out of their way to tell Putin that
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despite all of the provocations and
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Lavough said that these were from the
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Ukrainian side provocations.
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despite all of the
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provocations, Russia should nonetheless
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continue the negotiation process. So
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there is going to be a discussion about
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this at the highest level of the Russian
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government. Putin, as I have discussed
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in many programs, is not contrary to
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what many people in the west believe the
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sole decision maker. He always seeks
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advice from senior officials and is
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careful before he makes a final decision
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to solicit and obtain that advice.
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But all I will say is that we are closer
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to the point where the Russians decide
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that negotiations with the authorities
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in Kiev are pointless and that the
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moment has therefore come for the
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negotiations to be ended, for the
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special military operation to be
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upgraded perhaps to an anti-terrorist
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operation, and for the Russians to act
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upon what that means.
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Now, all of this is taking place even as
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the Russian army continues its advances
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on the various battle fronts. But
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perhaps even more importantly, as rumors
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had been circulating inside
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Russia that the Russians are preparing
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to deploy their arric missiles, their
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archnic missiles um on a mass scale um
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perhaps in retaliation for these attacks
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that the Ukrainians conducted over the
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last 24 36 hours. So anyway, those are
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the comments that Putin has made. Now,
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the other official who has been speaking
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is of course, President Donald Trump,
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and he hasn't been speaking exactly.
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He's published another message on Truth
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Social. And I'm not going to read it in
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detail, but he said that he's spoken on
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the phone to Putin for over an hour. He
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said that this was a good call. He said
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that nonetheless u Putin is in no mood
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at the moment to contemplate ceasefires
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or to uh move forward towards some kind
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of quick peace settlement. And um Trump
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also says that Putin is preparing a
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major retaliation for uh the various
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attacks that have taken place against
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Russia over the last 24 hours. Now in
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the meeting in Moscow, no mention was
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made of the attacks on the air bases. In
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Trump's truth social
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post, he made it appear that in fact
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Putin's retaliation, Russia's
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retaliation will be principally in
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connection with the attacks on the air
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bases. Um the
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reality I am believe is that the
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Russians have brushed off the attacks on
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the air bases. We now have satellite
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data from the air bases and I think we
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can say with confidence that the
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Ukrainians hugely exaggerated the damage
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that they did. They did not destroy 40
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Russian aircraft. They did not destroy
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17 Russian aircraft. They appear to have
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destroyed three old Tupel 95 bombers and
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caused damage to three more aircraft.
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one more Tupal
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F95 and two Tupel F22 M3s, but these
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apparently can be repaired. In some of
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the air bases, no damage was done at
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all. I think the Russians would accept
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this as acceptable war losses, war
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damage. But terrorist attacks they're
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treating differently if only because
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they have impacted on Russian civilians
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in the way that Putin has said. Now of
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course the attack on the air bases and
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the attack on the railway trains railway
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system were not the only attacks that
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the Ukrainians have carried out over the
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last 24 hours. Earlier today, uh earlier
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yesterday, sorry, reports were
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circulating about further Ukrainian
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attacks on the Crimean Bridge and the
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Ukrainians released footage of an
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explosion, a small explosion near one of
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the peers of the bridge and were saying
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that damage had in fact been done to the
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bridge. It seems that in fact no damage
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was done to the bridge at all. That an
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attack was carried out by the Ukrainians
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using drones uh water drones. The great
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majority of these water drones were
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intercepted and destroyed by the Russian
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military. One managed to penetrate the
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initial defensive barriers, but
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apparently hit some further barrier
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close to one of the peers and exploded
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without doing any major damage to the
00:22:02
bridge. For certain periods over the
00:22:05
course of yesterday, the bridge was
00:22:07
closed to road traffic, but it
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subsequently reopened and as far as I
00:22:15
can tell, no actual damage to the bridge
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itself was done. That attack at least
00:22:21
was a failure. However, we come back to
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this question that Putin has brought up
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of terrorism.
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Now, it seems that the Crimean Bridge no
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longer serves any military function. As
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I discussed in a recent program, the
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Ukrainians themselves have released
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footage of a Russian ammunition train um
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in I believe Zaporosia region heading
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perhaps towards Crimea using one of the
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new railway lines that the Russians have
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created. It seems that these railway
00:23:05
lines are indeed operating and it seems
00:23:08
that military supplies and probably
00:23:10
civilian supplies are sent to Crimea by
00:23:14
rail over land. They are no longer sent
00:23:18
to Crimea across the Crimean Bridge. The
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people who use the Crimean Bridge are
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civilians. This is civilian traffic.
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people traveling from Krasnadar in
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Russia to Crimea and from Crimea to
00:23:35
Krasnadar. So you could argue again that
00:23:39
this is a civilian facility given that
00:23:41
the bridge is in continuous operation.
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An attack on it could arguably be
00:23:47
treated as a further attempted attack on
00:23:51
civilians and therefore according to
00:23:54
Putin's formulations an act of
00:23:57
terrorism. Now, Putin did not bring up
00:24:00
the question of the Crimean bridge
00:24:02
attack over the course of the Moscow
00:24:04
meeting,
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probably because no damage was done and
00:24:10
no civilians were injured or killed. But
00:24:14
we go back to his comments about a
00:24:17
terrorist attack and the fact that the
00:24:22
Kiev regime, as he calls it, is
00:24:25
degenerating, according to him, into a
00:24:28
terrorist organization.
00:24:31
And I'm going to suggest yet again that
00:24:34
the attack on the Crimean
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Bridge was extremely
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illjudged and was
00:24:43
clearly intended like the attacks on the
00:24:47
railways to either put pressure on the
00:24:50
Russians or to disrupt the Istanbul
00:24:53
negotiations.
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In any event, they were clearly these
00:24:58
incidents were clearly coordinated and
00:25:01
they were probably coordinated with a
00:25:04
larger operation to attack the air
00:25:06
bases. In fact, as Simplicius the
00:25:10
thinker has correctly said, one can see
00:25:14
how over the course of the last 48 96
00:25:20
hours, Ukraine has attempted to carry
00:25:24
out a sequence of attacks on Russia,
00:25:29
which presumably the Ukrainians were
00:25:31
expecting or anticipating would provoke
00:25:36
a strong reaction. inside Russia perhaps
00:25:39
a political crisis or something like
00:25:41
that. So you had the attacks on the air
00:25:44
bases, the attacks on the railway lines
00:25:47
in Brians and Kusk region, the attack on
00:25:50
the Crimean bridge and I think it's true
00:25:53
to say that overall the effect of the
00:25:57
attacks was significantly less than the
00:26:02
Ukrainians probably hoped. The bridge
00:26:05
was
00:26:06
undamaged. The air bases did
00:26:11
uh uh did
00:26:13
receive a certain amount of damage, but
00:26:16
obviously significantly less than the
00:26:19
Ukrainians hoped. And well, the railway
00:26:22
line attacks were successful, but
00:26:24
successful in terms of targeting
00:26:27
civilians. The railway lines for the in
00:26:30
for just to say contrary perhaps again
00:26:35
to Ukrainian
00:26:37
expectations have been repaired by the
00:26:40
Russians. They were repaired within a
00:26:42
period of about 24 hours and are back in
00:26:47
full operation. I said in my program
00:26:52
after the attacks took place that the
00:26:54
Russians have specialized military units
00:26:58
whose task it is to repair railway lines
00:27:01
quickly and that is exactly what
00:27:04
happened. I think the Ukrainians were
00:27:06
expecting that the railway lines would
00:27:09
be closed for perhaps a week or even
00:27:12
longer. Instead, they were only closed
00:27:15
for a brief period of about 24 hours.
00:27:20
Anyway, Trump saw all of this, was
00:27:24
clearly alarmed by the
00:27:26
implications, telephoned Putin, tried to
00:27:30
find out what Putin was intending to do.
00:27:33
And Putin told him that indeed and in
00:27:36
fact, Russia does intend to retaliate.
00:27:40
And judging by the rumors, there's no
00:27:43
official word from the Russian
00:27:45
authorities or from the Kremlin, some
00:27:48
kind of a retaliation using the Arashnik
00:27:51
might be um might be being un be in the
00:27:56
process of preparation. Anyway, for the
00:28:00
rest, the interesting thing was that
00:28:03
Trump then in his true social post
00:28:08
entirely changed the subject and he
00:28:13
discussed
00:28:14
Iran and he said that he'd had a lengthy
00:28:18
conversation with Putin about
00:28:21
Iran and that Putin had agreed with him
00:28:26
that Iran should not acqu acquire
00:28:28
nuclear weapons and was prepared to work
00:28:31
with the United States to that objective
00:28:35
and that Putin and Trump were prepared
00:28:39
to not only work together but that Putin
00:28:41
would undertake contacts with the
00:28:44
Iranian leadership to facilitate this
00:28:47
process. Now here I'm going to say it
00:28:51
straightforwardly. It was exactly
00:28:55
what I predicted and what we
00:28:59
discussed on the Duran back in January.
00:29:04
Over the course of this truth social
00:29:08
post, Donald Trump has gone further than
00:29:12
at any point previously to confirm that
00:29:16
the Russians and the Americans are in
00:29:19
discussion with each other about finding
00:29:21
some kind of a solution to the nuclear
00:29:24
crisis with Iran. Why did Donald Trump
00:29:29
bring up this topic at all in this truth
00:29:33
social post? Well, I am going to suggest
00:29:36
that he did it for one very specific
00:29:39
reason. Over the next over the following
00:29:42
week, Senator Lindsey Graham and Senator
00:29:47
Blumenal are apparently planning to
00:29:51
propose their bone crunching sanctions
00:29:54
to move forward with their bone
00:29:56
crunching sanctions bill in the Senate.
00:30:00
Now there's been quite a lot of articles
00:30:03
and discussions about this and there's
00:30:06
been a very interesting interview given
00:30:09
by Lindsey Graham himself. Over the
00:30:12
course of that interview, Lindsey Graham
00:30:15
made it perfectly clear that the country
00:30:18
that he's actually targeting is China.
00:30:21
He came up with an extraordinary theory
00:30:23
that the war in Ukraine would only end
00:30:27
if China was pressured to end
00:30:31
it. Completely unable to understand that
00:30:35
given that China is not a party to the
00:30:37
war. But let's put aside
00:30:41
these gymnastics of logic which Lindsey
00:30:45
Graham um commits himself to. But
00:30:49
anyway, Lindsey Graham was making it
00:30:51
perfectly clear that the 500% sanctions
00:30:55
are targeting
00:30:56
China, not actually Russia directly at
00:31:02
all. Now, it's clear to me that Donald
00:31:06
Trump does not want to see these
00:31:10
sanctions brought into effect.
00:31:14
There's been various articles, including
00:31:17
a long one in the Guardian, which said
00:31:20
that if Trump were to oppose these
00:31:24
sanctions and were to make that fact
00:31:26
clear to the Senate, it's likely that
00:31:29
support for the sanctions amongst
00:31:32
Republican senators would um
00:31:36
diminish and that Speaker Johnson, the
00:31:40
Speaker of the House of Representatives,
00:31:42
was extremely ly unlikely to put the
00:31:45
sanctions package to the house if Trump
00:31:49
made it clear that he did not want that
00:31:52
to happen. The Guardian article also
00:31:56
said that even if the sanctions bill was
00:31:59
passed and voted into law, it would be
00:32:03
up to Trump to enforce it and he might
00:32:06
choose not to do so.
00:32:11
So, could it be that Trump, who perhaps
00:32:16
understands that 500% sanctions tariffs
00:32:20
on China, which is what Lindsey Graham
00:32:23
is talking about, would hurtle the
00:32:28
United States back into an economic war
00:32:33
with China of a kind that it was being
00:32:36
waged in April and early May an economic
00:32:41
war which almost caused a crisis in the
00:32:46
US
00:32:47
economy that Trump does not want those
00:32:51
tariffs put in place precisely for that
00:32:55
reason and that he's now given himself
00:32:57
an excuse for not supporting these
00:33:01
tariffs, these so-called secondary bone
00:33:04
crunching sanctions that Lindsey Graham
00:33:07
is now proposing.
00:33:09
by saying that he needs Russia's help,
00:33:12
Putin's help to sort out the problem
00:33:15
with
00:33:16
Iran. It's an
00:33:19
interesting
00:33:22
possibility. I wonder how it will play
00:33:25
out. I get the sense that Lindsey Graham
00:33:29
is very keen to move forward with his
00:33:33
sanctions stroke tariffs plan. He
00:33:37
probably has uh support from a majority
00:33:41
of senators. I suspect he will be very
00:33:44
angry with his true social post. Um he's
00:33:48
said all kinds of frankly not very
00:33:51
complimentary things about Trump that
00:33:53
Trump relies too much on charm and that
00:33:55
the time has come to use harder measures
00:33:59
to achieve what Lindsey Graham calls a
00:34:02
just peace in Ukraine. In other words,
00:34:04
Russia's defeat. Well, anyway, I get the
00:34:07
sense that Trump is not keen on these
00:34:10
this tariff, sanctions, whatever it is
00:34:12
you want to call it, idea, and this
00:34:15
truth social post might is been his way
00:34:19
of bringing it, at least for the moment,
00:34:23
taking it off the table. As I say, we
00:34:27
will see whether this succeeds. We will
00:34:29
see whether Lindsey Graham does decide
00:34:32
to risk a split with Trump by moving
00:34:35
forward with this package. Um there were
00:34:38
reports in the American media
00:34:42
that US senators are have been piling on
00:34:47
the pressure on
00:34:48
Trump to again resume support for
00:34:53
Ukraine. something which Trump
00:34:56
absolutely does not want to do and that
00:35:00
um Trump has been getting increasingly
00:35:04
um bothered by this pressure. Anyway, we
00:35:10
will see how this plays out. The
00:35:12
negotiation process between Russia and
00:35:15
Ukraine hangs by a thread. Putin, as I
00:35:20
said, is very, very angry and appears to
00:35:23
be thinking of calling the whole thing
00:35:25
off. Lavough and Medinski are going to
00:35:29
have their work cut out, I suspect,
00:35:32
trying to persuade him not to do that.
00:35:35
It's possible that sometime next week we
00:35:39
will see the entire military operation,
00:35:42
the Russian military operation in
00:35:43
Ukraine, upgraded to an anti-terrorist
00:35:46
operation. Putin's words clearly point
00:35:51
in that direction. In the meantime,
00:35:55
Donald Trump has to contend with
00:35:58
pressure from Congress, from the Senate
00:36:01
to impose sanctions on Russia, tariffs
00:36:05
on China that he really doesn't want to
00:36:08
impose. And he's therefore seeking
00:36:10
Russian help with Iran to avoid that
00:36:14
happening. We are looking at an
00:36:16
extremely complicated situation but I
00:36:19
think we are close to breaking point. I
00:36:22
am not going to discuss the military
00:36:24
situation in this program further either
00:36:28
but it seems to me that we are close to
00:36:31
breaking point on that too. Well, this
00:36:34
is where I end today's programs. I am
00:36:37
sorry about the late hour of this video.
00:36:40
This has been a very very full day.
00:36:42
tomorrow will be less so I believe and
00:36:46
for that reason you should be getting my
00:36:48
program at a more reasonable hour
00:36:51
tomorrow. That's me for today. Let me
00:36:53
remind you again you can find all our
00:36:55
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00:37:00
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00:37:07
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00:37:16
from me soon. Have a very good day.
