You’ve Been Lied To About Iran’s Nuclear Weapons

00:34:47
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3l5bCGjqLE

Sintesi

TLDRVideyo a dekri yon lagè lon tèm ant Izrayèl ak Iran, ki te kòmanse ak atak endirèk ak espiyonaj, men ki te vin tounen yon konfli dirèk nan 2024. Apre plizyè atak, Izrayèl te lanse yon atak masiv sou Iran nan 2025, ki te mennen nan yon repons Iran ki te vize Izrayèl. Atak sa yo te gen konsekans grav sou pwogram nikleyè Iran, men kesyon sou ki kantite domaj ki te fèt ak ki kote Iran te kache materyèl nikleyè yo rete san repons. Diskisyon sou yon nouvo akò nikleyè ant Etazini ak Iran ap kontinye, men gen anpil obstak.

Punti di forza

  • ⚔️ Lagè ant Izrayèl ak Iran te kòmanse ak atak endirèk.
  • 💣 Izrayèl te lanse yon atak masiv sou Iran nan 2025.
  • 📉 Domaj sou pwogram nikleyè Iran se toujou yon kesyon san repons.
  • 🕵️‍♂️ Espiyonaj te jwe yon wòl enpòtan nan konfli a.
  • 🤝 Negosyasyon sou yon nouvo akò nikleyè ap kontinye, men gen obstak.
  • 🚀 Iran te reponn ak atak misil sou Izrayèl.
  • 📊 Evalyasyon sou domaj ki fèt sou pwogram nikleyè Iran varye.
  • 🛡️ Iran konsidere pwogram nikleyè li kòm yon garanti sekirite.
  • 🌍 Konfli sa a gen enpak sou relasyon entènasyonal yo.
  • 🔍 Kesyon sou kote materyèl nikleyè Iran ye toujou san repons.

Linea temporale

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Depi plizyè deseni, Izrayèl ak Etazini angaje nan yon lagè lonbraj kont Iran nan Mwayen Oryan an, itilize tout rejyon an kòm yon echèk jeyopolitik pou eseye depase youn lòt. Pandan tout tan sa a, tou de bò yo te kenbe yon tabou kont atake dirèkteman teritwa youn lòt, chwazi pou frape youn lòt endirèkteman atravè pwoksis ak espyonaj. Iran te kenbe atak ak presyon sou Izrayèl atravè pwoksis tankou Hezbollah, Hamas ak Houthis, pandan ke Izrayèl te fè yon kanpay sabotaj kouvri nan Iran. Tabou sa a te kraze an 2024, lè Izrayèl te bombade konsila Iran nan Siri, sa ki te mennen Iran pou lanse atak dirèk sou teritwa Izrayèl la.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Nan avril 2024, apre atak Izrayèl la, Iran te reponn ak plis pase 150 misil balistik ak kwiz ki te frape dirèkteman teritwa Izrayèl la, sa ki te make premye fwa Iran te atake dirèkteman Izrayèl. Izrayèl te reponn ak frap lè a sou teritwa Iran, sa ki te montre ke tabou a te deja kraze. An oktòb 2024, apre asasinay lidè Hamas la sou tè Iran, Iran te lanse yon dezyèm atak dirèk pi gwo sou Izrayèl, sa ki te koze domaj minè.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Nan jen 2025, apre IAEA te deklare ke Iran te vyole angajman li yo sou pwopagasyon nikleyè, Izrayèl te lanse yon atak sipriz masiv sou teritwa Iran, ki te vize sit nikleyè, lansè misil, ak enfrastrikti enèji. Atak sa a te ko-nome Operasyon Lyon K ap Monte, ki te vize plis pase jis pwogram nikleyè Iran, men tou pou tonbe rejim teokratik la.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Iran te reponn ak 532 misil dirèkteman sou teritwa Izrayèl, ki te koze domaj nan zòn iben Izrayèl la, pandan ke atak Izrayèl yo te koze plis pase 935 lanmò nan Iran, ki gen ladan sivil. Izrayèl te etabli sipremasi lè a pandan tout konfli a, ak atak yo te vize sit rechèch nikleyè estratejik nan Iran.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Malgre atak yo, Iran te toujou gen aksè a min uranyòm, men yo te pèdi kapasite pou konvèti uranyòm an gaz ak pou anrichi li. Atak yo te vize sit enpòtan, men Iran te ka toujou kenbe yon kantite uranyòm anrichi ki te deja nan 60% pur, ki te pwoche bò 90% ki nesesè pou yon zam nikleyè.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:34:47

    Negosyasyon ant Etazini ak Iran sou pwogram nikleyè a te vin pi difisil, ak Iran ki te pèdi konfyans nan Etazini apre desizyon Trump pou retire tèt li nan akò nikleyè a an 2018. Iran te wè pwogram nikleyè li kòm sèl garanti pou sekirite li, pandan ke Izrayèl ak eta Arab yo te kontinye wè pwogram sa a kòm yon menas ekzistans.

Mostra di più

Mappa mentale

Video Domande e Risposte

  • Ki sa ki te kòz lagè ant Izrayèl ak Iran?

    Lagè a te kòmanse ak atak endirèk ak espiyonaj, men li te vin tounen yon konfli dirèk nan 2024.

  • Ki sa ki te pase nan atak Izrayèl sou Iran nan 2025?

    Izrayèl te lanse yon atak masiv sou Iran, vize sit nikleyè ak lòt enfrastrikti militè.

  • Ki kantite domaj ki te fèt sou pwogram nikleyè Iran?

    Gen anpil diskisyon sou kantite domaj ki te fèt, ak kèk evalyasyon ki di li te retade pwogram nan pou plizyè mwa.

  • Ki sa ki te repons Iran apre atak Izrayèl la?

    Iran te lanse plizyè misil sou Izrayèl, ki te koze domaj nan zòn iben.

  • Ki sa ki te pase ak pwogram nikleyè Iran apre atak yo?

    Iran te kontinye ak pwogram nikleyè li, men gen anpil kesyon sou ki kantite materyèl ki te rete ak ki kote li ye.

  • Ki sa ki te pase ak akò nikleyè a ant Etazini ak Iran?

    Diskisyon sou yon nouvo akò nikleyè ap kontinye, men gen anpil obstak ak mank de konfyans.

  • Ki sa ki te pase ak pwogram nikleyè Iran pandan administrasyon Trump la?

    Administrasyon Trump la te retire Etazini nan akò nikleyè a, sa ki te mennen Iran pou rekòmanse pwogram li.

  • Ki sa ki te pase ak pwogram nikleyè Iran apre atak yo?

    Iran te kontinye ak pwogram nikleyè li, men ak anpil domaj ki te fèt sou enfrastrikti li.

  • Ki sa ki te pase ak pwogram nikleyè Iran pandan administrasyon Biden la?

    Administrasyon Biden la te eseye negosye yon nouvo akò, men li te fè fas ak anpil difikilte.

  • Ki sa ki te pase ak pwogram nikleyè Iran nan tan lontan?

    Iran te fè fas ak anpil presyon entènasyonal sou pwogram nikleyè li, ki te mennen nan plizyè akò ak negosyasyon.

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Sottotitoli
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Scorrimento automatico:
  • 00:00:00
    For decades, Israel and the United
  • 00:00:01
    States have engaged Iran in a shadow war
  • 00:00:03
    across the Middle East, using the whole
  • 00:00:06
    region as their massive geopolitical
  • 00:00:08
    chessboard in their attempts to
  • 00:00:09
    outmaneuver each other. But throughout
  • 00:00:11
    all this time, until very recently, both
  • 00:00:13
    sides maintained a taboo against
  • 00:00:15
    attacking each other's territory
  • 00:00:16
    directly, choosing to strike each other
  • 00:00:18
    indirectly from the shadows through
  • 00:00:20
    proxies and espionage instead. Iran
  • 00:00:22
    maintained attacks and pressure on
  • 00:00:24
    Israel through their proxies like
  • 00:00:25
    Hezbollah Hamas and the Houthis while
  • 00:00:27
    Israel carried out a campaign of covert
  • 00:00:29
    sabotage within Iran using a dense
  • 00:00:31
    network of informants and spies. This
  • 00:00:34
    was the way the cold war between both
  • 00:00:36
    sides was fought for decades until the
  • 00:00:38
    long taboo on directly attacking each
  • 00:00:40
    other's territory was suddenly broken in
  • 00:00:42
    2024. In April of that year, after
  • 00:00:44
    Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in
  • 00:00:46
    Syria's capital and killed several
  • 00:00:48
    senior Iranian officials there, Iran
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    retaliated by firing over 150 ballistic
  • 00:00:53
    and cruise missiles directly at Israeli
  • 00:00:55
    territory, marking the first time that
  • 00:00:57
    Iran directly attacked Israeli territory
  • 00:00:59
    itself. Almost all of the missiles were
  • 00:01:01
    shot down and then Israel retaliated by
  • 00:01:03
    launching limited air strikes directly
  • 00:01:05
    on Iranian territory for the first time
  • 00:01:07
    as well. later in October of 2024, but
  • 00:01:09
    the taboo already broken. And following
  • 00:01:11
    Israel's assassination of Hamas's
  • 00:01:13
    political leader on Iranian soil, Iran
  • 00:01:15
    attacked Israel's territory directly for
  • 00:01:17
    a second even larger time using around
  • 00:01:19
    200 missiles, causing only minor damage.
  • 00:01:22
    Again, both of these incidents of direct
  • 00:01:24
    attacks between them were merely
  • 00:01:26
    preludes for what was coming in June of
  • 00:01:28
    2025, last month, however, when Israel
  • 00:01:30
    and Iran absolutely shattered the
  • 00:01:33
    longunning taboo on attacking each
  • 00:01:35
    other's territories directly. On the
  • 00:01:37
    12th of June, the UN's nuclear watchdog
  • 00:01:39
    agency, the International Atomic Energy
  • 00:01:41
    Agency, or the IAEA, declared for the
  • 00:01:44
    first time that Iran was in breach of
  • 00:01:46
    its nuclear non-prololiferation
  • 00:01:47
    commitments. The very next day, the
  • 00:01:49
    Israelis launched a massive surprise
  • 00:01:51
    attack directly against Iranian
  • 00:01:53
    territory, involving overwhelming air
  • 00:01:55
    strikes along with commando and MSAD
  • 00:01:57
    operatives who were hidden deep within
  • 00:01:58
    Iran itself on the ground. Around 200
  • 00:02:01
    Israeli war plananes hammered almost 100
  • 00:02:04
    targets across Iranian territory just on
  • 00:02:06
    the opening wave of the surprise attack
  • 00:02:08
    alone, targeting the country's nuclear
  • 00:02:10
    sites, missile launchers, air defenses,
  • 00:02:12
    energy infrastructure, and senior
  • 00:02:13
    commanders and leadership. Over the next
  • 00:02:15
    10 days, dozens of further Israeli air
  • 00:02:17
    strikes continued bombarding these same
  • 00:02:19
    kinds of targets all across Iran with
  • 00:02:21
    devastating results. At least 14 of
  • 00:02:24
    Iran's leading nuclear scientists and
  • 00:02:26
    experts were killed in the attacks along
  • 00:02:28
    with dozens of senior Iranian military
  • 00:02:29
    and intelligence officials, including
  • 00:02:31
    the chief of staff of the Iranian armed
  • 00:02:33
    forces and the commander-in-chief of the
  • 00:02:34
    Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
  • 00:02:36
    Arguably the two most senior military
  • 00:02:38
    commanders in the entire country, along
  • 00:02:40
    with the head of the Iranian Missile
  • 00:02:42
    Program for good measure, no doubt
  • 00:02:44
    paralyzing the Iranian military's
  • 00:02:45
    decision-making capabilities in the
  • 00:02:47
    process. Scores of Iran's air defenses
  • 00:02:50
    and outdated fighter aircraft were
  • 00:02:51
    obliterated on the ground, and as much
  • 00:02:53
    as twothirds of Iran's ballistic missile
  • 00:02:55
    launchers were wiped out during the
  • 00:02:57
    campaign as well. Israel co-named its
  • 00:02:59
    surprise attack and ensuing operations
  • 00:03:01
    against Iran as Operation Rising Lion. A
  • 00:03:04
    clear reference to the pre-revolutionary
  • 00:03:06
    symbol of Iran, the lion, suggesting
  • 00:03:09
    that Israel's ultimate objective in the
  • 00:03:11
    campaign went beyond just curbing Iran's
  • 00:03:13
    nuclear weapons program and was intended
  • 00:03:15
    to go even further and cause the
  • 00:03:16
    toppling of the country's theocratic
  • 00:03:18
    regime as well. Iran almost immediately
  • 00:03:20
    began retaliating for Israel's attacks
  • 00:03:22
    and over the coming 12 days, Iran would
  • 00:03:24
    fire a similarly unprecedented 532
  • 00:03:28
    ballistic and cruise missiles directly
  • 00:03:29
    at Israeli territory. As in the past,
  • 00:03:32
    the vast majority of them were either
  • 00:03:34
    intercepted, misfired, or struck empty
  • 00:03:36
    parts of the country. But 31 of these
  • 00:03:38
    Iranian missiles also managed to
  • 00:03:40
    directly strike major Israeli population
  • 00:03:42
    centers, causing extensive damage to
  • 00:03:45
    Israeli urban areas and killing 29
  • 00:03:47
    Israelis in the process, all of them
  • 00:03:49
    civilians. Iran's missiles failed to
  • 00:03:52
    strike any Israeli military targets like
  • 00:03:53
    air bases that could have hurt the
  • 00:03:55
    Israeli war effort. While Israeli
  • 00:03:57
    strikes devastated Iran's military with
  • 00:03:59
    significant civilian harm as well,
  • 00:04:02
    killing as many as 935 people across the
  • 00:04:04
    country, including many civilians,
  • 00:04:07
    according to Iran, Iran failed to shoot
  • 00:04:09
    down a single Israeli jet during the
  • 00:04:11
    entire campaign, and only managed to
  • 00:04:13
    down a couple of Israel's unmanned
  • 00:04:15
    drones, showing how thoroughly Israel
  • 00:04:18
    had managed to establish and maintain
  • 00:04:20
    aerial supremacy over Iran during the
  • 00:04:22
    entire conflict. Israel repeatedly
  • 00:04:24
    bombarded many of Iran's most
  • 00:04:26
    strategically important nuclear research
  • 00:04:28
    sites throughout its days of attacks.
  • 00:04:30
    But there were two facilities in
  • 00:04:31
    particular where Israel's weaponry
  • 00:04:33
    couldn't reach. Iran's two largest
  • 00:04:35
    nuclear enrichment plants at Tons and
  • 00:04:37
    For both buried deep underneath mountain
  • 00:04:40
    sides that shielded them from most forms
  • 00:04:42
    of aerial attacks. Israel's leadership
  • 00:04:44
    appealed to the United States to join
  • 00:04:46
    directly in the war with their advanced
  • 00:04:48
    30,000 lb GBU57 bunker buster bombs. The
  • 00:04:52
    only conventional ordinance known in the
  • 00:04:54
    world, theoretically capable of striking
  • 00:04:56
    the two buried Iranian nuclear
  • 00:04:58
    enrichment sites since they are rated to
  • 00:05:00
    be able to penetrate their 60 m of solid
  • 00:05:03
    concrete before detonating their massive
  • 00:05:05
    payload. The Trump administration began
  • 00:05:08
    flooding reinforcements of aircraft's
  • 00:05:10
    fleets and soldiers to the Middle East
  • 00:05:11
    theater. All the while the negotiations
  • 00:05:13
    with Iran over the country's nuclear
  • 00:05:15
    program continued. But in the end, on
  • 00:05:17
    the 22nd of June, the Trump
  • 00:05:19
    administration decided to answer the
  • 00:05:20
    Israeli call to war and joined with
  • 00:05:22
    their own unprecedented direct attack on
  • 00:05:24
    Iranian territory as well, with the goal
  • 00:05:27
    of crushing the country's nuclear
  • 00:05:28
    ambitions once and for all. Dubbed
  • 00:05:31
    Operation Midnight Hammer, the American
  • 00:05:33
    surprise attack on Iran's nuclear
  • 00:05:35
    research sites was one of the most
  • 00:05:36
    complex and technical operations ever
  • 00:05:38
    carried out in the US military's entire
  • 00:05:41
    history. America's B2 stealth bomber
  • 00:05:44
    fleet, which are capable of carrying the
  • 00:05:45
    GBU57 bunker busters are all primarily
  • 00:05:48
    stationed at Whiteitman Air Force Base
  • 00:05:50
    in the US state of Missouri. In order to
  • 00:05:52
    carefully maintain the element of
  • 00:05:53
    surprise, two groups of B2 bombers
  • 00:05:56
    sorted out from Whiteitman on the 21st
  • 00:05:58
    of June, the day before the actual
  • 00:05:59
    attack, and traveled west across the
  • 00:06:01
    Pacific in order to serve as a decoy for
  • 00:06:03
    anyone who might have been watching or
  • 00:06:05
    paying attention. The next day on the
  • 00:06:07
    22nd, the main strike package consisting
  • 00:06:09
    of seven B2 bombers loaded up with the
  • 00:06:11
    bunker busters departed from White Men
  • 00:06:14
    and traveled east, maintaining almost
  • 00:06:15
    zero communications in complete radio
  • 00:06:18
    silence for an 18-hour non-stop flight
  • 00:06:21
    toward Iran. Undergoing multiple aerial
  • 00:06:23
    refuelings across the Atlantic and
  • 00:06:25
    Mediterranean so that they would never
  • 00:06:27
    have to stop. By the time they
  • 00:06:28
    approached Iranian airspace, they were
  • 00:06:30
    joined by many dozens of fighter escorts
  • 00:06:32
    just as an American nuclear submarine
  • 00:06:34
    operating somewhere nearby fired more
  • 00:06:36
    than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles
  • 00:06:38
    aimed towards Iran's nuclear research
  • 00:06:40
    site at Isvahan. As those missiles were
  • 00:06:42
    still airborne, the B2s and their
  • 00:06:44
    fighter escorts entered into Iranian
  • 00:06:46
    airspace from the west. banned. Moments
  • 00:06:47
    later, they dropped a total of 12 of
  • 00:06:49
    their heavy bunker busters on Iran's
  • 00:06:51
    Ford enrichment site and another two of
  • 00:06:54
    their bunker busters on the Natan's
  • 00:06:55
    enrichment site. Just at about the same
  • 00:06:58
    time as the submarine fired Tomahawk
  • 00:06:59
    missiles began impacting at the Isvahan
  • 00:07:02
    site. All of the American aircraft that
  • 00:07:04
    participated in the raid, around 125 of
  • 00:07:06
    them in total were able to safely remove
  • 00:07:08
    themselves from Iranian airspace after
  • 00:07:10
    the attack without suffering a single
  • 00:07:12
    casualty. And only a couple of days
  • 00:07:14
    later, the Trump administration was able
  • 00:07:15
    to force a ceasefire between Iran and
  • 00:07:17
    Israel, ending the past 12 days of
  • 00:07:20
    relentless fighting and bombardments
  • 00:07:21
    between them. No doubt somewhat
  • 00:07:24
    disappointing the Israeli government
  • 00:07:25
    that was likely hoping for even heavier
  • 00:07:27
    American attacks that would have toppled
  • 00:07:29
    the entire Iranian government. And ever
  • 00:07:32
    since, there's been an enormous amount
  • 00:07:34
    of debate and controversy over how much
  • 00:07:37
    damage the American attacks actually did
  • 00:07:39
    to the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
  • 00:07:41
    and by extension, how quickly the
  • 00:07:44
    Iranians might be able to reconstitute
  • 00:07:46
    their program. Iran's nuclear program
  • 00:07:48
    was well distributed across several
  • 00:07:49
    different sites around the country in
  • 00:07:51
    order to make it harder for enemies to
  • 00:07:53
    disrupt and attack it. And Iran is a
  • 00:07:55
    huge country, coming in at about the
  • 00:07:58
    same size as the entire southwestern
  • 00:08:00
    corner of the US mainland. Assembling a
  • 00:08:02
    nuclear weapon is an extremely complex
  • 00:08:05
    process and requires multiple different
  • 00:08:06
    steps. Each of which have been affected
  • 00:08:08
    differently by the 12 days of Israeli
  • 00:08:10
    and American air strikes. The first step
  • 00:08:12
    is simply mining the raw uranium ore
  • 00:08:14
    that's required for a bomb. There are
  • 00:08:16
    two active uranium mines within Iran
  • 00:08:18
    with the largest being the sagand mine
  • 00:08:20
    in the central east of Iran. However,
  • 00:08:23
    harvesting raw uranium from mines is
  • 00:08:25
    usually the incorrect type to build a
  • 00:08:27
    nuclear weapon with. 99% of the uranium
  • 00:08:30
    out there in nature is known as U238.
  • 00:08:32
    238 referring to the mass of each atom.
  • 00:08:35
    In order to build a bomb, a lighter form
  • 00:08:37
    of uranium called U235 is required
  • 00:08:40
    instead. But only 0.7% of the uranium in
  • 00:08:43
    nature is actually U235.
  • 00:08:45
    Iran's uranium mines were not targeted
  • 00:08:47
    by either the Israeli or American
  • 00:08:49
    attacks this past month. So Iran's
  • 00:08:51
    ability to continue mining raw uranium
  • 00:08:53
    has not been impacted. But in order to
  • 00:08:55
    produce the lighter uranium that's
  • 00:08:57
    required for a bomb, its metal form
  • 00:08:59
    needs to be converted into a gas so that
  • 00:09:01
    it can be purified. A form called
  • 00:09:03
    uranium hexafflloride. There was only
  • 00:09:06
    one facility known in Iran that was
  • 00:09:08
    capable of converting natural metal
  • 00:09:09
    uranium into this gas estate and it was
  • 00:09:11
    in Isvahan which was repeatedly bombed
  • 00:09:14
    by Israeli jets and further attacked by
  • 00:09:16
    the American submarine fired Tomahawk
  • 00:09:18
    cruise missiles. Satellite images taken
  • 00:09:20
    of the Isvahan complex after the attacks
  • 00:09:22
    show multiple buildings and laboratories
  • 00:09:24
    above ground there that are severely
  • 00:09:26
    damaged, which has most likely crippled
  • 00:09:28
    Iran's capability to convert uranium
  • 00:09:30
    into gas for now. Establishing the first
  • 00:09:32
    of several major bottlenecks that now
  • 00:09:34
    exist in the country's nuclear weapons
  • 00:09:36
    program that will probably take years to
  • 00:09:38
    repair. After the metal has been
  • 00:09:40
    converted into gas, the next and most
  • 00:09:42
    challenging step in the weapon building
  • 00:09:43
    process is to enrich the gas, which is
  • 00:09:46
    done so by putting the gas into enormous
  • 00:09:48
    arrays of advanced high-speed
  • 00:09:50
    centrifuges that rapidly spin the
  • 00:09:53
    uranium hexaflloride gas. During this
  • 00:09:55
    step, the heavier U238 generally moves
  • 00:09:58
    to the outside of the centrifuge, making
  • 00:10:00
    the gas in the center of the centrifuge
  • 00:10:02
    steadily richer in the lighter U235.
  • 00:10:05
    Once this process is repeated in the
  • 00:10:06
    centrifuges multiple times over, the
  • 00:10:09
    concentration of U235 and the gas can be
  • 00:10:11
    raised up to as high as 90%. Which is
  • 00:10:14
    the purity threshold considered to be
  • 00:10:15
    weaponsgrade uranium. The two largest
  • 00:10:18
    known enrichment sites that are on
  • 00:10:19
    possessed renatons Sanford. Both of them
  • 00:10:22
    built deep underground beneath two
  • 00:10:24
    different mountains with vast holes of
  • 00:10:26
    centrifuges beneath them. each
  • 00:10:28
    containing more than 18,000 centrifuges
  • 00:10:30
    a piece with Ford continuing the more
  • 00:10:33
    modern and advanced series of
  • 00:10:34
    centrifuges. The fate of what exactly
  • 00:10:36
    ended up happening at these sites during
  • 00:10:38
    the attacks is some of the most
  • 00:10:39
    contentious and debated at the moment.
  • 00:10:41
    Israeli air strikes targeted and likely
  • 00:10:43
    destroyed most if not all of the
  • 00:10:45
    centrifuges and tons after they
  • 00:10:47
    eliminated the site's electrical power
  • 00:10:48
    supply while the US dropped two of their
  • 00:10:51
    heavy bunker buster bombs on the site to
  • 00:10:52
    destroy the underground infrastructure
  • 00:10:54
    just for good measure. While further
  • 00:10:56
    Israeli air strikes targeted nonranian
  • 00:10:58
    manufacturing plants that built
  • 00:11:00
    additional centrifuges, the US B2
  • 00:11:02
    bombers also dropped 12 more of the
  • 00:11:04
    bunker busters on the Ford site, which
  • 00:11:06
    was the primary target of the Americans.
  • 00:11:09
    Satellite images of the site taken
  • 00:11:10
    afterward showed two sets of three
  • 00:11:12
    impact craters where the bunker busters
  • 00:11:14
    impacted. There were only six impact
  • 00:11:16
    craters because each of the locations
  • 00:11:18
    was precisely hit by two of the bunker
  • 00:11:20
    busters one after the other in order to
  • 00:11:22
    fully penetrate all the way down to the
  • 00:11:24
    about 90 meter depth that the Ford
  • 00:11:26
    enrichment site was believed to be
  • 00:11:28
    located. The bunker busters were likely
  • 00:11:30
    targeting the Ford site sole ventilation
  • 00:11:33
    shaft and associated access tunnels.
  • 00:11:35
    While the shock waves sent from the
  • 00:11:37
    bombs likely radiated all throughout the
  • 00:11:39
    mountain and damage the centrifuges
  • 00:11:41
    within it, which are very sensitive to
  • 00:11:43
    external vibrations while they're in
  • 00:11:45
    use, and they're exceptionally difficult
  • 00:11:46
    to turn off without causing any unwanted
  • 00:11:49
    damage. Donald Trump himself has
  • 00:11:51
    repeatedly claimed that the Ford site
  • 00:11:53
    was completely obliterated by the
  • 00:11:55
    attack, while the IAEA has also said
  • 00:11:57
    that the centrifuges at Ford have
  • 00:11:59
    appeared to be no longer in operation.
  • 00:12:01
    But there's been a degree of uncertainty
  • 00:12:03
    as to exactly how much damage the bunker
  • 00:12:05
    busters caused to the Foraux enrichment
  • 00:12:07
    site. The day after the attack, a
  • 00:12:09
    preliminary classified damage assessment
  • 00:12:11
    report was leaked from the Defense
  • 00:12:13
    Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon's
  • 00:12:15
    military intelligence agency, which
  • 00:12:17
    concluded that the strikes had only set
  • 00:12:18
    Iran's nuclear program back by just a
  • 00:12:20
    few months rather than by a few years.
  • 00:12:23
    It concluded that many of Iran's
  • 00:12:25
    enrichment centrifuges had in fact
  • 00:12:27
    remained intact and that the country
  • 00:12:28
    likely retained other secret enrichment
  • 00:12:30
    facilities that still remained
  • 00:12:32
    operational. The report further
  • 00:12:34
    concluded that while the bunker busters
  • 00:12:35
    likely damaged FTO's electrical systems
  • 00:12:37
    and collapsed its entrance tunnels, the
  • 00:12:39
    main underground enrichment hall likely
  • 00:12:42
    continue to remain intact. But there's
  • 00:12:44
    also good reason to doubt the DIA's
  • 00:12:46
    initial assessment of the situation. The
  • 00:12:48
    analysts themselves who prepared the
  • 00:12:49
    report labeled it as low confidence,
  • 00:12:52
    while its sources were based entirely on
  • 00:12:54
    satellite imagery and intercepted
  • 00:12:55
    communications, which are not
  • 00:12:57
    necessarily the most reliable. David
  • 00:12:59
    Albbright, a former IAEA inspector, has
  • 00:13:02
    suggested that further evidence that
  • 00:13:04
    arrived after the DIA's report indicated
  • 00:13:06
    that Iran likely lost around 20,000 of
  • 00:13:09
    their centrifuges in the Foro and
  • 00:13:10
    Natan's bombings, severely handicapping
  • 00:13:13
    their ability to further enrich their
  • 00:13:15
    surviving uranium supplies to weapons
  • 00:13:17
    grade. Other American intelligence
  • 00:13:19
    agencies and officials like the CIA and
  • 00:13:21
    the director of national intelligence
  • 00:13:22
    Tulsi Gabbard have also stressed that
  • 00:13:24
    the damage inflicted on Foraux and other
  • 00:13:26
    sites by the attacks have indeed set the
  • 00:13:28
    Iranian nuclear program back by years
  • 00:13:31
    rather than months. While Israeli
  • 00:13:33
    agencies like their Atomic Energy
  • 00:13:34
    Commission have also claimed the same
  • 00:13:36
    thing as well. So Iran's ability to
  • 00:13:38
    enrich uranium has almost certainly been
  • 00:13:40
    degraded. But the true extent of that
  • 00:13:42
    damage right now remains unclear.
  • 00:13:45
    There's also an even bigger problem
  • 00:13:47
    because even if the US attacks truly did
  • 00:13:49
    obliterate the enrichment sites in
  • 00:13:50
    Natans and Ford as they claim, it might
  • 00:13:53
    not have been enough to have stopped
  • 00:13:54
    their development of a bomb. Nearly a
  • 00:13:56
    week before the Israelis began carrying
  • 00:13:58
    out their air strikes across Iran, IAEA
  • 00:14:01
    inspectors operating in the country
  • 00:14:02
    estimated that the Iranians had around
  • 00:14:04
    400 kg or around 900 lb worth of
  • 00:14:08
    highlyenriched uranium that was already
  • 00:14:10
    concentrated to 60% purity, just within
  • 00:14:13
    range of the 90% purity required for a
  • 00:14:16
    ball. James Actton, the co-director of
  • 00:14:18
    the nuclear policy program at the
  • 00:14:20
    Carnegie Endowment for International
  • 00:14:21
    Peace, has since written that it would
  • 00:14:23
    only take a single cascade of 174
  • 00:14:26
    centrifuges, a total time of between 10
  • 00:14:29
    and 20 days to further enrich that
  • 00:14:31
    supply of 60% enriched uranium into 90%
  • 00:14:34
    enriched weaponsgrade fuel. Had Iran
  • 00:14:36
    ever taken the decision to have done
  • 00:14:38
    that, that fuel would have been enough
  • 00:14:40
    to have powered between 9 and 10 atomic
  • 00:14:42
    bombs. Iran basically chose to pursue a
  • 00:14:45
    strategy of enriching their uranium
  • 00:14:46
    supply to just beneath the weapons grade
  • 00:14:49
    threshold in order to a maintain a form
  • 00:14:51
    of plausible deniability about what they
  • 00:14:53
    were really doing and b give themselves
  • 00:14:56
    the option of rapidly sprinting towards
  • 00:14:58
    a bomb if they felt the situation was
  • 00:15:00
    dire enough at any given time. However,
  • 00:15:02
    as recently as just a few months before
  • 00:15:04
    the IsraeliAmerican attacks in March of
  • 00:15:07
    2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the director of
  • 00:15:10
    national intelligence in the United
  • 00:15:11
    States, testified in front of Congress
  • 00:15:14
    that Iran had not yet taken the decision
  • 00:15:16
    to enrich their uranium supply any
  • 00:15:18
    further, and there were no signs at all
  • 00:15:20
    that the Iranians were actively
  • 00:15:22
    preparing to advance their nuclear
  • 00:15:23
    program any further down the supply
  • 00:15:25
    chain. Nonetheless, this supply of 400
  • 00:15:28
    kg worth of 60% enriched uranium is the
  • 00:15:31
    single most valuable asset that the
  • 00:15:32
    Iranian regime currently possesses. And
  • 00:15:35
    extremely troublingly right now, nobody
  • 00:15:37
    outside of the Iranian regime has any
  • 00:15:39
    idea of where it actually is. The
  • 00:15:41
    preliminary DIA assessment issued the
  • 00:15:43
    day after the American bombing suggests
  • 00:15:45
    that the Iranians likely moved that
  • 00:15:47
    material to an unknown secret location
  • 00:15:49
    early on in the conflict. Satellite
  • 00:15:51
    images taken over the Ford enrichment
  • 00:15:53
    facility in the days leading up to the
  • 00:15:55
    American attack show more than a dozen
  • 00:15:57
    cargo trucks stationed outside of the
  • 00:15:58
    facility's entrance, suggesting that
  • 00:16:01
    Iran may have been moving the enriched
  • 00:16:02
    uranium and some of the centrifuges from
  • 00:16:04
    the site before it was actually
  • 00:16:06
    attacked, which has been repeatedly
  • 00:16:08
    denied by the Trump administration
  • 00:16:09
    since. Other trucks were spotted by
  • 00:16:11
    satellites at the Isvahan complex
  • 00:16:13
    leading up to the American attack as
  • 00:16:14
    well, where the Iranians were known to
  • 00:16:16
    be storing a lot of that enriched
  • 00:16:18
    uranium ad. The IAEA had said just a
  • 00:16:20
    week before the start of the Israeli air
  • 00:16:22
    strikes that the Iranians were storing a
  • 00:16:24
    lot of the enriched uranium there in
  • 00:16:25
    specialized casks that were small enough
  • 00:16:27
    to fit in the trunks of only about 10
  • 00:16:29
    cars, implying that they could have
  • 00:16:31
    easily been relocated to unknown
  • 00:16:33
    locations from there and safeguarded.
  • 00:16:35
    Ultimately, the UN's IAEA, America's
  • 00:16:38
    DIA, and multiple European intelligence
  • 00:16:40
    agencies currently believe that Iran
  • 00:16:42
    relocated most, if not all, of its
  • 00:16:44
    enriched uranium supplies before the
  • 00:16:46
    attacks happened. While the Trump
  • 00:16:48
    administration has insisted that it was
  • 00:16:50
    all or mostly destroyed, but has so far
  • 00:16:52
    not offered up any convincing evidence
  • 00:16:54
    of that. If Iran ended up shielding
  • 00:16:56
    enough of their centrifuges from the
  • 00:16:57
    attacks in other discrete locations and
  • 00:16:59
    maintained additional smaller covert
  • 00:17:01
    enrichment facilities, it would be
  • 00:17:03
    theoretically possible for the regime to
  • 00:17:05
    decide on sprinting towards a bomb and
  • 00:17:07
    further enriching their surviving supply
  • 00:17:09
    towards the 90% weapons grade fuel they
  • 00:17:11
    could potentially use to power between 9
  • 00:17:13
    and 10 atomic bombs. But even if they
  • 00:17:16
    were able to do that, Iron might still
  • 00:17:18
    face another critical bottleneck in the
  • 00:17:20
    next step of the weapons building
  • 00:17:21
    process anyway, which is actually
  • 00:17:23
    converting the 90% weapons grade
  • 00:17:25
    enriched uranium gas back into its metal
  • 00:17:27
    form again. A process known as
  • 00:17:30
    metallization that is required to build
  • 00:17:32
    a bomb's explosive core. Iran's sole
  • 00:17:35
    known active metalization facility was
  • 00:17:37
    at the sprawling Isvon complex above
  • 00:17:39
    ground that was relentlessly bombarded
  • 00:17:41
    by Israeli air strikes and the American
  • 00:17:43
    Tomahawk missiles which likely destroyed
  • 00:17:46
    it enough that it'll take the Iranians
  • 00:17:48
    years to rebuild it. Without this
  • 00:17:50
    crucial capability, Iran will not be
  • 00:17:52
    able to build a bomb even if it manages
  • 00:17:54
    to rapidly enrich its surviving supplies
  • 00:17:56
    of uranium gas to weapons grade.
  • 00:17:58
    Although it has been pointed out that
  • 00:17:59
    Iran has maintained other known
  • 00:18:01
    metalization plans in the past that
  • 00:18:03
    could potentially be restarted again and
  • 00:18:05
    it might have other secret metalization
  • 00:18:06
    plans elsewhere where the work could be
  • 00:18:08
    conducted away from prying eyes. Though
  • 00:18:11
    there is no publicly known intelligence
  • 00:18:12
    that currently suggests that similarly
  • 00:18:15
    and finally even if Iran finishes the
  • 00:18:17
    metalization process, it would still
  • 00:18:19
    have to miniaturaturize further crucial
  • 00:18:21
    components like a detonator system in
  • 00:18:24
    order to properly fit it on a delivery
  • 00:18:26
    system like a warhead on a missile. Iran
  • 00:18:28
    may or may not have this capability
  • 00:18:30
    right now. It's a little unclear and
  • 00:18:32
    depends on what source you're looking
  • 00:18:33
    at, but the Israelis did bomb and
  • 00:18:35
    destroy multiple buildings at Iran's
  • 00:18:37
    Sanerian manufacturing plant, which was
  • 00:18:40
    known to produce these kinds of
  • 00:18:41
    miniaturized detonator systems, which
  • 00:18:44
    also might complicate Iran's ability to
  • 00:18:46
    finish this final step of a bomb's
  • 00:18:48
    construction as well. Although, like as
  • 00:18:50
    a potentially secret hidden metalization
  • 00:18:52
    and enrichment facilities, Iran could
  • 00:18:54
    maintain other hidden detonator system
  • 00:18:56
    plans as well. Basically, nobody really
  • 00:18:58
    knows at this point the true extent of
  • 00:19:00
    the damage that the Israeli American
  • 00:19:01
    attacks did to Iran's nuclear program.
  • 00:19:04
    Several key elements of the supply chain
  • 00:19:06
    required to build a bomb have no doubt
  • 00:19:08
    been damaged, including Iran's ability
  • 00:19:10
    to convert uranium metal into gas, their
  • 00:19:12
    ability to further enrich the uranium
  • 00:19:14
    gas, and their ability to reconvert the
  • 00:19:16
    enriched gas back into metal again. to
  • 00:19:18
    say nothing of their 14 senior nuclear
  • 00:19:20
    scientists who were killed, creating at
  • 00:19:22
    least three probable bottlenecks in
  • 00:19:25
    their production process that will take
  • 00:19:26
    an unknown amount of time for them to
  • 00:19:28
    recover from. But Iran also probably
  • 00:19:30
    still retains most of their 400 kg of
  • 00:19:33
    60% enriched uranium gas. And if they
  • 00:19:36
    can manage to covertly reconstitute
  • 00:19:38
    their centrifuge and metallization
  • 00:19:39
    processes, they could likely manage to
  • 00:19:42
    sprint towards an arsenal of 9 or 10
  • 00:19:43
    bombs within weeks of doing so. The
  • 00:19:46
    unanswered questions on everybody's mind
  • 00:19:48
    right now are thus how much of Iran's
  • 00:19:50
    supply of 60% enriched uranium gas
  • 00:19:53
    actually survived and where is it
  • 00:19:54
    currently located and how quickly can
  • 00:19:56
    Iran reconstitute their enrichment and
  • 00:19:58
    metalization processes? These questions
  • 00:20:01
    are now at the center of the
  • 00:20:02
    negotiations between the US and Iran
  • 00:20:04
    over a renewed nuclear deal. But there
  • 00:20:07
    are substantial obstacles standing in
  • 00:20:08
    the way of negotiations being
  • 00:20:10
    successful. Now, Trump continues to
  • 00:20:12
    insist that Iran agreed to completely
  • 00:20:14
    scuttle its entire enrichment processes
  • 00:20:16
    permanently or there won't be any deal
  • 00:20:18
    at all. Something that the Iranians are
  • 00:20:20
    almost certainly never going to agree to
  • 00:20:22
    now because they no doubt view their
  • 00:20:24
    eventual acquisition of a nuclear bomb
  • 00:20:26
    as their only guarantee of safety in
  • 00:20:28
    this dangerous world. Over the past
  • 00:20:30
    nearly 2 years of war across the Middle
  • 00:20:33
    East, Iran has completely lost its
  • 00:20:35
    carefully built up conventional
  • 00:20:37
    deterrence to relentless Israeli and
  • 00:20:39
    American attacks. Its proxies and
  • 00:20:41
    Hezbollah Hamas had spent tens of
  • 00:20:43
    billions of dollars in decades building
  • 00:20:45
    up have been completely crippled. Its
  • 00:20:47
    allied regime in Syria has been toppled.
  • 00:20:50
    While Israeli and American war planes
  • 00:20:52
    showed that they were capable of
  • 00:20:53
    bombarding the country and killing its
  • 00:20:55
    senior leadership with complete
  • 00:20:56
    impunity. Iran's only possible way to
  • 00:21:00
    maintain deterrent standing is
  • 00:21:01
    completing its nuclear project. And they
  • 00:21:04
    have zero trust in the Trump
  • 00:21:05
    administration or Israel that if they
  • 00:21:07
    give that up, they won't just take
  • 00:21:09
    advantage of it and try and topple their
  • 00:21:10
    even more exposed regime later. Remember
  • 00:21:13
    that prior negotiations over Iran's
  • 00:21:15
    long-running nuclear program during the
  • 00:21:17
    Obama era eventually culminated in 2015
  • 00:21:19
    with a joint comprehensive plan of
  • 00:21:21
    action or the JCPOA, sometimes also
  • 00:21:24
    called the Iran nuclear deal, which
  • 00:21:26
    accomplished several notable things at
  • 00:21:27
    the time. Iran then agreed that it would
  • 00:21:29
    eliminate its enrichment program and
  • 00:21:31
    would shut down their huge Bordeaux
  • 00:21:33
    enrichment site for 15 years until 2030.
  • 00:21:36
    and they would also submit themselves to
  • 00:21:38
    extremely intrusive weapons inspections
  • 00:21:40
    from the IAEA to routinely verify that
  • 00:21:43
    they remained in compliance. In
  • 00:21:45
    exchange, multiple US, EU, and UN
  • 00:21:48
    sanctions that had been previously
  • 00:21:49
    imposed on Iran would be lifted,
  • 00:21:51
    including on their oil exports and
  • 00:21:52
    hundred billion dollars worth of frozen
  • 00:21:54
    overseas assets that were unfrozen,
  • 00:21:57
    granting the more abundant Iranian
  • 00:21:58
    economy a much needed and welcome boost.
  • 00:22:01
    Any of those sanctions could also be
  • 00:22:03
    immediately reimposed unilaterally
  • 00:22:05
    through a snapback mechanism. If Iran
  • 00:22:07
    was ever to be found in non-compliance,
  • 00:22:09
    even if Iran pulled out of the deal, the
  • 00:22:11
    JCPOA had restricted Iran's nuclear
  • 00:22:13
    capabilities by such an extent, it was
  • 00:22:15
    seen that it would be impossible for
  • 00:22:17
    them to have developed a weapon within a
  • 00:22:18
    year of pulling out, giving the world
  • 00:22:20
    enough time to resort to military action
  • 00:22:23
    if that ever happened. Nonetheless,
  • 00:22:25
    there were several opponents to the deal
  • 00:22:26
    in the West and a lot of substantial
  • 00:22:28
    criticism. Some critics of the JCPOA
  • 00:22:31
    blasted it as only a band-aid to the
  • 00:22:33
    problem, only restricting Iran's nuclear
  • 00:22:35
    program for 15 years and only delaying
  • 00:22:37
    it until 2030 rather than decisively
  • 00:22:39
    shutting it down for good. Israel and
  • 00:22:41
    Netanyahu's government fiercely objected
  • 00:22:44
    to the deal, claiming that it
  • 00:22:45
    legitimized the Iranian nuclear program
  • 00:22:47
    and claiming that Iran would either find
  • 00:22:48
    ways to violate the agreement or it
  • 00:22:50
    would simply wait it out for 15 years
  • 00:22:52
    and just restart it again later, kicking
  • 00:22:54
    the Iranian nuclear can down the road
  • 00:22:56
    for future leaders to figure out
  • 00:22:58
    instead. The deal also didn't address or
  • 00:23:00
    put any limits on Iran's ballistic
  • 00:23:02
    missile program. And it freed up huge
  • 00:23:04
    amounts of cash for Iran to begin piling
  • 00:23:06
    into its various regional proxy forces
  • 00:23:08
    like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas,
  • 00:23:10
    which further inflamed tensions between
  • 00:23:12
    Iran and the Gulf Arab states and led to
  • 00:23:14
    countries like Saudi Arabia and the
  • 00:23:15
    United Arab Emirates opposing the deal
  • 00:23:17
    as well. While intended to last for 15
  • 00:23:20
    years, the JCPOA only ended up lasting
  • 00:23:22
    for 3 years until 2018 when the Trump
  • 00:23:25
    administration unilaterally pulled the
  • 00:23:27
    US out of the deal and reimposed
  • 00:23:29
    crushing sanctions on Iran instead.
  • 00:23:31
    Despite the fact that all evidence at
  • 00:23:33
    the time indicated that the Iranians
  • 00:23:35
    were upholding their end of the deal
  • 00:23:37
    back then, Obama predicted that Trump's
  • 00:23:39
    decision to do this was going to
  • 00:23:41
    eventually present America with what he
  • 00:23:43
    called the losing choice between a
  • 00:23:45
    nuclear armed Iran or another war in the
  • 00:23:47
    Middle East. Enraged and feeling
  • 00:23:49
    betrayed by the collapse of the deal,
  • 00:23:51
    the pragmatists in the Iranian regime
  • 00:23:53
    who had been steadily gaining momentum
  • 00:23:54
    were sidelined in favor of the
  • 00:23:56
    hardliners again. And with the crushing
  • 00:23:58
    American sanctions reimposed, Iran
  • 00:24:00
    quickly began restarting small elements
  • 00:24:03
    of their nuclear program and gradually
  • 00:24:05
    violating the original terms of the
  • 00:24:06
    JCPOA. Small-scale enrichment began
  • 00:24:09
    again, centrifuge production and use
  • 00:24:11
    increased and access to the IAEA was
  • 00:24:13
    steadily restricted again. Then in
  • 00:24:15
    January of 2020, after Trump ordered the
  • 00:24:17
    drone strike that killed one of Iran's
  • 00:24:19
    most senior generals who was in Iraq at
  • 00:24:21
    the time, Kasan Solemani, Iran declared
  • 00:24:23
    that they were no longer going to abide
  • 00:24:25
    by any of the remaining limits on their
  • 00:24:26
    nuclear enrichment program. And so their
  • 00:24:28
    stockpile of enriched uranium began
  • 00:24:30
    rapidly expanding again from almost
  • 00:24:32
    nothing to include the increasing
  • 00:24:34
    volumes of highlyenriched uranium at 60%
  • 00:24:36
    within only a stones throw away of the
  • 00:24:38
    90% weaponsgrade fuel. After Joe Biden
  • 00:24:41
    became America's next president in 2021,
  • 00:24:44
    he promised to renegotiate another
  • 00:24:45
    nuclear deal with Iran. But for years,
  • 00:24:47
    it proved to be too difficult with a
  • 00:24:49
    lack of trust since Trump ripped the US
  • 00:24:51
    out of the last deal. Throughout his
  • 00:24:53
    term in office, Biden insisted that Iran
  • 00:24:56
    needed to return back to the original
  • 00:24:57
    restrictions on their program imposed by
  • 00:24:59
    the JCPOA before he would lift the
  • 00:25:01
    re-imposed sanctions. While the Iranians
  • 00:25:04
    continued to insist the opposite and
  • 00:25:06
    demanded that the sanctions be lifted
  • 00:25:07
    first as a sign of trust, no side ever
  • 00:25:10
    proved willing or capable of budging for
  • 00:25:12
    years. And then came the Hamas attack on
  • 00:25:14
    Israel in October of 2023, which sparked
  • 00:25:17
    the series of events into motion that
  • 00:25:19
    led to Hamas and Hezbollah getting
  • 00:25:20
    catastrophically crippled and the Assad
  • 00:25:23
    regime in Syria collapsing, completely
  • 00:25:25
    undermining Iran's strategy of
  • 00:25:27
    conventional deterrence and exposing
  • 00:25:29
    them for the first time in decades to
  • 00:25:31
    direct Israeli and American attacks. As
  • 00:25:33
    Iran's nuclear enrichment continued, the
  • 00:25:36
    second Trump administration demanded
  • 00:25:37
    that any new nuclear deal would require
  • 00:25:39
    them to stop enriching completely, which
  • 00:25:42
    Iran continued refusing to do, which set
  • 00:25:44
    the stage for war. Now, Iran is faced
  • 00:25:47
    with two major sets of precedents to
  • 00:25:49
    consider with any further negotiations
  • 00:25:50
    on their program. The first are the many
  • 00:25:53
    recent historical precedents that have
  • 00:25:55
    happened to other countries who gave up
  • 00:25:56
    their nuclear weapons programs and were
  • 00:25:58
    subsequently invaded or attacked by
  • 00:25:59
    outside powers who didn't fear them any
  • 00:26:01
    longer. The Gaddafi regime in Libya
  • 00:26:04
    agreed to give up their nuclear weapons
  • 00:26:05
    program in 2003. And then only eight
  • 00:26:08
    years later, NATO led a military
  • 00:26:09
    intervention into the country that
  • 00:26:11
    toppled his regime and led directly to
  • 00:26:12
    his death. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to
  • 00:26:15
    surrender their inherited arsenal of
  • 00:26:17
    Soviet era nuclear weapons to Russia in
  • 00:26:19
    exchange for security guarantees that
  • 00:26:21
    their territorial integrity would be
  • 00:26:23
    permanently respected. And then 20 years
  • 00:26:25
    later, Russia invaded Ukraine and seized
  • 00:26:28
    Crimea and then launched a full-scale
  • 00:26:30
    invasion into the country that's still
  • 00:26:32
    ongoing. And most infamously of all for
  • 00:26:35
    this precedent is the case of Saddam
  • 00:26:36
    Hussein's Iraq, which pursued a nuclear
  • 00:26:38
    weapons program throughout the 1980s
  • 00:26:40
    that was decisively shut down after the
  • 00:26:42
    1991 Gulf War and then painstakingly
  • 00:26:45
    contained by the United States through a
  • 00:26:47
    combination of no-fly zone, sanctions,
  • 00:26:49
    espionage, and occasional bombings for
  • 00:26:52
    another decade that all proved to be a
  • 00:26:54
    long prelude to the 2003 invasion of the
  • 00:26:56
    country, which collapsed Saddam's regime
  • 00:26:59
    and led to his death. Iran fears that it
  • 00:27:01
    is now the next Iraq or Libya. They fear
  • 00:27:04
    that with our conventional deterrence
  • 00:27:05
    crippled with Hamas and Hezbollah down
  • 00:27:07
    on their knees and their ballistic
  • 00:27:09
    missiles and launchers largely
  • 00:27:10
    destroyed, if they give up their nuclear
  • 00:27:12
    program now, even after the damage it is
  • 00:27:15
    sustained through the Israeli and
  • 00:27:16
    American attacks, the US will sooner or
  • 00:27:19
    later simply treat them the same way
  • 00:27:21
    they did Libya and Iraq beforehand and
  • 00:27:23
    attempt to topple their regime without a
  • 00:27:25
    fear of major deterrence. This lack of
  • 00:27:28
    trust is not reinforced by the enormous
  • 00:27:30
    presence of the US military around them
  • 00:27:32
    in the Middle East right now and the
  • 00:27:34
    shattering of the taboo on direct
  • 00:27:36
    attacks on Iranian soil now. There is
  • 00:27:38
    also of course the North Korean
  • 00:27:40
    president. Another regime who the West
  • 00:27:42
    has been extremely hostile to. But since
  • 00:27:45
    their successful development of their
  • 00:27:46
    own nuclear weapons program back in
  • 00:27:48
    2006, North Korea has never faced so
  • 00:27:51
    much as a single attack from the outside
  • 00:27:53
    world because they possess the ultimate
  • 00:27:55
    deterrent. North Korea's strategy of
  • 00:27:58
    withdrawing from the NPT in 2003 after
  • 00:28:00
    the Iraq president and immediately
  • 00:28:02
    sprinting towards the bomb that they
  • 00:28:04
    acquired three years later has proven
  • 00:28:06
    infinitely more successful than Iran's
  • 00:28:08
    more reserved strategy of slowly keeping
  • 00:28:11
    themselves just beneath the nuclear
  • 00:28:12
    threshold in a failed attempt to prevent
  • 00:28:15
    an outside attack. The lessons that have
  • 00:28:17
    been continually reinforced since the
  • 00:28:19
    turn of the century is that acquiring
  • 00:28:21
    the bomb is the only way to guarantee
  • 00:28:23
    regime survivability and territorial
  • 00:28:25
    integrity in the world today. And this
  • 00:28:27
    is why any negotiations, even with all
  • 00:28:30
    of the damage that's already been
  • 00:28:31
    inflicted on Iran's nuclear program,
  • 00:28:33
    will be exceedingly difficult to
  • 00:28:35
    navigate through. And then there's the
  • 00:28:36
    precedent already set by the United
  • 00:28:38
    States of agreeing to a deal with Iran
  • 00:28:40
    on the program in 2015, only to then
  • 00:28:42
    reedge on the deal and unilaterally
  • 00:28:44
    withdraw from it just 3 years later.
  • 00:28:46
    From Iran's perspective, who's to say
  • 00:28:48
    that won't just happen again? I think
  • 00:28:50
    that the most likely outcome here is
  • 00:28:51
    that so long as the hardline
  • 00:28:53
    revolutionary regime remains in power in
  • 00:28:55
    Iran, the regime will continue seeing
  • 00:28:57
    the bomb as its only guarantee of
  • 00:28:59
    survival like the Kims in North Korea
  • 00:29:01
    have. Israel and the Gulf Arab states
  • 00:29:03
    will also continue seeing Iran's nuclear
  • 00:29:05
    program as an unacceptable existential
  • 00:29:07
    threat to their own survivals and they
  • 00:29:10
    will continue trying to rope in the
  • 00:29:11
    United States to try and help them
  • 00:29:13
    contain it potentially leading to a
  • 00:29:15
    similar situation going forward as the
  • 00:29:17
    US faced with Saddam's Iraq throughout
  • 00:29:19
    the 1990s where the US just keeps on
  • 00:29:21
    having to deploy occasional force to
  • 00:29:23
    continually delay and suppress the
  • 00:29:25
    program whenever they feel it's getting
  • 00:29:27
    too close to becoming successful. tying
  • 00:29:29
    up critical American military resources
  • 00:29:31
    in the Middle East while it's attempting
  • 00:29:33
    to maintain its focus on China and
  • 00:29:35
    Taiwan and locking the US in a yet
  • 00:29:37
    another version of an unpopular forever
  • 00:29:39
    war back in the sandbox. Is this outcome
  • 00:29:43
    actually better than what we already had
  • 00:29:44
    under the JCPOA before 2018, which
  • 00:29:48
    probably would have continued delaying
  • 00:29:50
    all of this from happening until at
  • 00:29:51
    least 2030, and it would have enabled
  • 00:29:53
    America to maintain more of its focus on
  • 00:29:55
    China for longer. Either way you lean on
  • 00:29:57
    that, at this point I think it's only a
  • 00:30:00
    matter of time until the next nuclear
  • 00:30:01
    crisis with Iran erupts. So long as Iran
  • 00:30:04
    sees the acquisition of a bomb as being
  • 00:30:06
    vital for their own security and Israel
  • 00:30:08
    and the Gulf Arabs view it as an
  • 00:30:10
    unacceptable threat to their own
  • 00:30:12
    security. In order to understand the
  • 00:30:14
    modern Middle East, you need to
  • 00:30:16
    understand how the many wars and
  • 00:30:18
    conflicts over the past few years here
  • 00:30:19
    have set the current conflict into
  • 00:30:21
    motion and prepared the board for both
  • 00:30:22
    Iran and Israel's moves. The long
  • 00:30:25
    history of Israel's military occupation
  • 00:30:27
    of the Palestinian territories like the
  • 00:30:29
    West Bank and Gaza paved the way for the
  • 00:30:31
    rise of Hamas and Israel's siege of
  • 00:30:33
    Gaza, followed by Hamas's October 7th
  • 00:30:35
    attack in Israel's subsequent invasion
  • 00:30:37
    and arguable genocide there. The civil
  • 00:30:39
    war that tore Lebanon apart in the 1980s
  • 00:30:42
    and Israel's military intervention into
  • 00:30:43
    it directly led to the birth of
  • 00:30:45
    Hezbollah, the conflict on Israel's
  • 00:30:47
    northern flank. The long and complicated
  • 00:30:49
    civil war in Syria that lasted for
  • 00:30:51
    longer than a decade paved the way for
  • 00:30:52
    the Assad regime's collapse that enabled
  • 00:30:55
    Israeli war plananes to consider a
  • 00:30:56
    direct attack on Iran for the first time
  • 00:30:58
    in 2025. The similarly long and
  • 00:31:01
    complicated civil war in Yemen that saw
  • 00:31:04
    massive Saudi Arabianled military
  • 00:31:06
    intervention paved the way for the
  • 00:31:07
    Iranian aligned Houthis to establish
  • 00:31:09
    their control over most of the country's
  • 00:31:11
    major population centers. While the US
  • 00:31:13
    invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the
  • 00:31:15
    preceding Saddam Hussein regime's
  • 00:31:17
    invasions of Kuwait and Iran led
  • 00:31:19
    directly to the weakening of Iraq's
  • 00:31:20
    institutions and the infiltration of
  • 00:31:22
    Iraqi society by the Iranian regime. All
  • 00:31:25
    of these conflicts across the Middle
  • 00:31:26
    East are deeply interconnected and
  • 00:31:28
    they're all part of the foundation of
  • 00:31:30
    knowledge for understanding how we got
  • 00:31:32
    to where we are today. And as with every
  • 00:31:34
    major conflict that I've covered before
  • 00:31:35
    on this channel, there's always far more
  • 00:31:38
    complexity that can never be fully
  • 00:31:39
    explored in just a single YouTube video,
  • 00:31:41
    especially when the topics are as
  • 00:31:43
    sensitive and controversial as covert
  • 00:31:45
    nuclear programs, foreign armed
  • 00:31:46
    interventions, and regional warfare. And
  • 00:31:48
    this is exactly why I created my modern
  • 00:31:51
    conflict series, which includes
  • 00:31:52
    standalone in-depth documentaries into
  • 00:31:54
    all of these preceding Middle Eastern
  • 00:31:56
    conflicts like the Israel Hamas
  • 00:31:57
    conflict, the October 7th attack, and
  • 00:31:59
    the Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen civil wars
  • 00:32:01
    that will all give you the invaluable
  • 00:32:03
    prior context that you need to
  • 00:32:05
    understand what's really happening here
  • 00:32:07
    today. Over the past four years, I've
  • 00:32:09
    created around 50 total episodes in
  • 00:32:11
    modern conflicts covering the most major
  • 00:32:13
    wars, operations, and conflicts of the
  • 00:32:15
    21st century. also including multiple
  • 00:32:17
    episodes into the ongoing Russia Ukraine
  • 00:32:19
    war, the civil wars in Sudan and
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    Myanmar, the 2012 Benghazi embassy
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    siege, the Armenia Azarbaijan wars, and
  • 00:32:26
    dozens of other episodes with new ones
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    coming out all the time exclusively on
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    Nebula. Because of the inherently
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    violent and controversial details
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    surrounding the discussion of all of
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    this, these modern conflict
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    documentaries would all become
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    demonetized and age restricted if they
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    were on YouTube, which means the
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    YouTube's algorithm, which is based
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    around showing you ads, would never be
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    incentivized to actually show the videos
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    to you or to promote them. I deal with
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    very large numbers of my more mild
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    videos on YouTube getting demonetized
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    and restricted as they are. And that's
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    why I upload all of my episodes in
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    modern conflicts exclusively to Nebula
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    and why signing up to Nebula is the
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    absolute best thing that you can do to
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    support me and my channel. And you'll
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    also get access to way more content than
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    just my exclusive Modern Conflict series
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    there as well. Because the best part
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    about Nebula is that it's jointly
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    co-owned by myself and hundreds of other
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    independent creators to make the
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    projects that we're all actually deeply
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    excited about without any fear of being
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    censored or demonetized like we are on
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    YouTube. And that's why there's tons of
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    other new unique content on Nebula
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    that's coming out all the time, too,
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    that you'll also love, like Bobby
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    Broccley's incredible new featurelength
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    Ellis, now exclusive to Nebula
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    Productions team's hilarious abolish
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    Everything series, and so many others. I
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    and you don't really want to get stuck
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    this all the way through to the end.
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    There is so much content on Nebula that
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Tag
  • Izrayèl
  • Iran
  • lagè
  • nikleyè
  • konfli
  • espiyonaj
  • ataki
  • pwogram nikleyè
  • negosyasyon
  • diplomasi