How the French Army Compares to the British Army
摘要
TLDRThe video provides a comprehensive comparison of the British and French armies, focusing on their differences and similarities, particularly in terms of modern warfare readiness. Presenter Michael Shuren shares his expertise and highlights that while the French army is larger and has seen success in modernization, both armies face significant challenges in terms of capability and resources. The analysis stresses the implications of the Ukraine conflict for NATO armies and concludes that despite their training and professionalism, neither army is prepared for sustained combat against a major adversary. Adaptation, resilience, and strategic investments are key themes discussed throughout the video.
心得
- 👤 Presenter: Michael Shuren, military expert.
- 🇬🇧 British Army size: ~73,000 regular troops.
- 🇫🇷 French Army size: ~130,000 regular troops.
- 🔧 French modernization efforts are more successful.
- ⚖️ Both armies lack adequate resources for large-scale war.
- 🛡️ Training and professionalism of soldiers are high.
- 🚀 Need for advanced technologies and capabilities.
- ⚔️ Both armies face challenges from the Ukraine conflict.
- 💰 Stability of budget affects modernization success.
- 🌍 Future readiness requires adaptability and resilience.
时间轴
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
In this video, Michael Shuren discusses the comparative analysis of the British and French armies, stemming from viewer feedback on his previous video. He highlights the similarities in their challenges, particularly regarding their capacity for major land warfare against a peer competitor like Russia. The video is structured into four parts: credentials, differences, similarities, and conclusions on both armies' future paths.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
Shuren establishes his credentials, detailing his experience with the British military through institutions like the Rand Corporation and the United Services Institute. He notes his deeper expertise in the French military, citing his publications and contributions to understanding French military strategies and modernization efforts.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
The key differences between the British and French armies are outlined, primarily focusing on their sizes: the French army is nearly twice as large as the British army. Shuren emphasizes that, while the French army is larger, it also is in better shape due to more successful modernization programs compared to the British army's troubled projects such as the Future Rapid Effects System (FRES).
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
In discussing modernization efforts, Shuren contrasts the French military's effective implementation of networked warfare technologies and modernization programs, such as Scorpion, with the British approach, which has struggled with delays and setbacks in modernization efforts, leading to gaps in capabilities on the battlefield.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
Both armies share significant similarities, particularly in their insufficient capabilities for modern warfare. Key areas of concern include inadequate air defense, weapon systems, and logistical capabilities. Despite having advanced technology, both armies lack the mass required for prolonged engagements, leading to a reliance on quality over quantity, reminiscent of challenges faced during the Cold War.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:03
Finally, Shuren concludes by reflecting on whether the inability to sustain large-scale conventional warfare truly matters in a modern context where nuclear threats exist. He cites Jean Dominique Merchet, advocating for resilience and adaptability rather than purely increasing military spending as a path forward for both the British and French armies.
思维导图
视频问答
What are the main differences between the British and French armies?
The French army is nearly twice the size of the British army, has better modernization progress, and a more stable budget.
How are the British and French armies similar?
Both armies face similar shortcomings in their capacities for modern warfare, including inadequate numbers of advanced weaponry and logistical challenges.
What challenges do both armies face in terms of modernization?
Both armies struggle with outdated systems and insufficient production capacities for munitions and military hardware.
What are the implications of the Ukraine conflict for Western armies?
The conflict has exposed capability gaps that both the British and French armies need to address urgently.
Can the British or French armies effectively conduct a large ground war?
Neither is capable of sustaining a large war for long due to lack of numbers and sufficient resources.
What does the presenter recommend for the British and French armies?
He emphasizes the need for resilience and adaptability rather than merely increased funding.
What is the significance of the Scorpion program?
It represents a comprehensive modernization effort in the French army focusing on networked warfare technologies.
Why is the size of the armies important?
Size impacts their capability to engage in lengthy or large-scale conflicts effectively.
What role did past military strategies play in current army readiness?
The lack of focus on preparing for large-scale conflicts post-Cold War has left both armies under-equipped.
What is the overall conclusion regarding the armies' readiness?
Both armies are high-quality forces but lack the necessary numbers and materials for sustained conflict against a major adversary.
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- 00:00:00hi last week I posted a video about the
- 00:00:02British Army and the well the video was
- 00:00:05fairly successful and in the comments
- 00:00:07both on YouTube and also on Twitter
- 00:00:08people said hey this video was really
- 00:00:10great but could you do a comparison of
- 00:00:12the British army with the French army
- 00:00:14well that's what this video is now the
- 00:00:16easiest way of putting it is that the
- 00:00:17British and the French armies are
- 00:00:19different in some ways and similar in
- 00:00:22others and honestly I think that the
- 00:00:23ways in which they are similar is more
- 00:00:26interesting and more important than the
- 00:00:28ways in which they are different why
- 00:00:31more important because the ways in which
- 00:00:33they are similar is bad news for both
- 00:00:35armies with respect to their ability to
- 00:00:37do the one thing that's on everybody's
- 00:00:40mind these days which is their ability
- 00:00:42to fight a major land war and
- 00:00:45conventional highend conventional
- 00:00:47Warfare against a peer or near peer
- 00:00:51competitor such as Russia so I'm going
- 00:00:54to divide this video into four parts
- 00:00:55first part I'm going to talk very
- 00:00:57briefly about my credentials basically
- 00:00:59why should you be listening to me second
- 00:01:00part I'm going to talk about why or how
- 00:01:02these two armies are different the third
- 00:01:04part I'm going to talk about how these
- 00:01:06armies are similar and the fourth part
- 00:01:08I'm going to try to wrap it up with some
- 00:01:09conclusions about where we are and
- 00:01:11whether or not the different differences
- 00:01:12in similarties actually even matter and
- 00:01:15the how best both armies should should
- 00:01:18really move forward my name is Michael
- 00:01:21shuren and welcome to my YouTube channel
- 00:01:23Pax Americana a conversation about world
- 00:01:25affairs global conflict military
- 00:01:27strategy and anything else that happens
- 00:01:30be on my mind so let's get into it so
- 00:01:33first part credentials with regard to
- 00:01:36the British military I've been following
- 00:01:37the British military now for many many
- 00:01:39years I worked on them both at the Rand
- 00:01:40Corporation and I also wrote some stuff
- 00:01:42on my own so I've got some Publications
- 00:01:44at Rand and also written for things like
- 00:01:46the wavel room about British military
- 00:01:48the British military policy Etc I also
- 00:01:51happen to be an associate fellow of the
- 00:01:53world United Services Institute which is
- 00:01:55the preeminent UK defense Think Tank and
- 00:01:59I parti participated this summer at
- 00:02:01their annual land Warfare conference in
- 00:02:03in London uh which means to say that I I
- 00:02:06am participating in albeit from a
- 00:02:08distance in the current discussions
- 00:02:10about the state of the British Army and
- 00:02:12the future of the British army Etc as
- 00:02:15for the French army I I confess I know a
- 00:02:17great deal more about the French
- 00:02:18military and army than I do about the
- 00:02:20British simply because I focused much
- 00:02:22more intensively on the French uh at
- 00:02:24this point I think it's fair to say that
- 00:02:26I'm one of the if not the leading
- 00:02:28American expert in the French military
- 00:02:30and I've written several studies for
- 00:02:33Rand Corporation as well as for uh
- 00:02:36Publications such as waren the rocks and
- 00:02:38the Texas National Security view all
- 00:02:40about the the British milit uh the
- 00:02:42French military uh these include for
- 00:02:45Rand I led a study of French networked
- 00:02:47or French approaches to networked
- 00:02:49Warfare I wrote a history of French coin
- 00:02:52Doctrine the most important of these by
- 00:02:54far is a study that I co-authored at
- 00:02:56Rand with the Magnificent Stephanie
- 00:02:57pizard under the title strong Ally
- 00:02:59stretch thin which is a study of the
- 00:03:01strengths and weaknesses of the French
- 00:03:03military that was commissioned by the
- 00:03:04United States Department of Defense this
- 00:03:07study uh which by the way you can find
- 00:03:08on the ran website and I put links in
- 00:03:10the description to to that study as well
- 00:03:12as everything else including the the uh
- 00:03:14study on French approaches to network
- 00:03:16Warfare but the the sh alyar them was
- 00:03:19very well received by the highest
- 00:03:20echelons of the French military General
- 00:03:22Burkhart uh who is the chair of the
- 00:03:25joint staff told me in person that he
- 00:03:27thought very highly of the study and he
- 00:03:29AG agreed with the conclusions the
- 00:03:32French think so hardly of my work on
- 00:03:34them and my work on the French military
- 00:03:37and my efforts to basically be the the
- 00:03:39explainer of the French military to an
- 00:03:41American audience they actually made be
- 00:03:43a uh a knight of the order of Merit
- 00:03:47National order of Merit um which means
- 00:03:50that from hence forth you should refer
- 00:03:52to me as Sir Michael or if you are a
- 00:03:55Monty Python fan uh Brave Sir Michael
- 00:03:58I'm joking of course
- 00:04:00so let's talk now let's talk now about
- 00:04:03the differences between the two
- 00:04:04militaries the first obvious difference
- 00:04:07is size at this point the French army is
- 00:04:09roughly almost twice as large as the
- 00:04:11British army the British army has about
- 00:04:1373,000 regular soldiers plus about
- 00:04:1524,000 reservas the French army has
- 00:04:18about 130 or 120 depending on what you
- 00:04:21read thousand regular soldiers plus
- 00:04:24about 25,000 reservists of those regular
- 00:04:28Soldiers the French can consider the
- 00:04:30size of its Deployable force to be about
- 00:04:3477,000 I've read no comparative number
- 00:04:37comparable number and any British Army
- 00:04:39documents I've read in terms of what
- 00:04:40they consider their Deployable Force I'm
- 00:04:42not entirely sure what the french even
- 00:04:43mean by that the point simply being that
- 00:04:46the French army is significantly larger
- 00:04:48than the British army it's also fair to
- 00:04:51say that the French army is in better
- 00:04:54shape than the British army I I I insist
- 00:04:56it's not better that's not my argument
- 00:04:58but rather it's just in better shape and
- 00:05:01I think a a classic example of that is
- 00:05:04the the relative success of French army
- 00:05:06modernization programs compared to
- 00:05:08British Army modernization programs in
- 00:05:10the previous video about the British
- 00:05:12army I talked about the future rapid
- 00:05:14effects system or fres which was this
- 00:05:17major program in the 2000s which was
- 00:05:20designed to to replace obsolete British
- 00:05:23armored vehicles with upto-date modern
- 00:05:26armored vehicles all of which were
- 00:05:28supposed to be stuffed to the guilds
- 00:05:29with all the highest technology fres
- 00:05:32failed and the only bit of fres as far
- 00:05:34as I know that survives is the Ajax
- 00:05:37infantry Fighting Vehicle which is
- 00:05:39expected to enter service soon I'm sure
- 00:05:41the Ajax is going to be a phenomenal
- 00:05:43vehicle but the the whole story The Saga
- 00:05:46of its development and production was
- 00:05:48just Frau with all of problems and
- 00:05:49delays Etc it's very problematic now
- 00:05:52some people have also said for instance
- 00:05:54some of the comments on to my video said
- 00:05:56that the boxer which is a German design
- 00:05:59vehicle that the British are also
- 00:06:01building and and and now is coming into
- 00:06:03service with the British army that boxer
- 00:06:05also is is a legacy of fres uh I don't
- 00:06:09know if that's true I your s of boxer as
- 00:06:11being basically something that they
- 00:06:13resorted to to replace a capability Gap
- 00:06:16that's left by the failure FES but
- 00:06:18either way I just want to know that
- 00:06:19boxer exists and and and there is
- 00:06:22apparently some British DNA and the the
- 00:06:24whole program which arguably dates to to
- 00:06:28to fit I don't know you should ask uh
- 00:06:30Nicholas Drummond who is the boxer
- 00:06:32expert in the UK now the French in
- 00:06:35general have done much much better with
- 00:06:37their modernization efforts so for
- 00:06:40instance France leads the way when it
- 00:06:41comes to digi
- 00:06:43digitization and the implementation of
- 00:06:46information networks and uh Network
- 00:06:48Warfare Technologies and the development
- 00:06:50of a whole family of armored vehicles
- 00:06:53I'm thinking of the vbci which uh
- 00:06:55entered into service I believe in 2006
- 00:06:58the Jaguar the Griffin
- 00:07:00next is going to come something called
- 00:07:01surval and then in the meantime they're
- 00:07:03working on modernizing the liaran battle
- 00:07:05tank they're going to modernize uh
- 00:07:07they're intending to modernize 200 of
- 00:07:09the deair I I mention that just in
- 00:07:11contrast because I believe that the
- 00:07:12British plans to modernize the
- 00:07:14Challenger to they're only going to
- 00:07:16modernize something like 140 149 of them
- 00:07:19so they're going to end up with a uh
- 00:07:21hopefully they're going to keep the rest
- 00:07:22but we're talking roughly the same
- 00:07:25numbers the uh I also if if I'm going to
- 00:07:27talk about modernization I also have to
- 00:07:29to talk about something called the
- 00:07:30Scorpion program uh which dates to 2014
- 00:07:34uh I mean French army networked or their
- 00:07:37implementation of network Warfare te
- 00:07:39technologies predates that by a lot I
- 00:07:41wrote about it in my studies if you want
- 00:07:43to learn more about the history of this
- 00:07:45please go go read that I think it's very
- 00:07:47interesting um but uh scorpion
- 00:07:51represents sort of like a scaling up of
- 00:07:53of these efforts and and sort of
- 00:07:55development of a much more comprehensive
- 00:07:56all of force kind of effort scorpion
- 00:08:00technically is an acronym it refers to
- 00:08:02the Synergy the Synergy the
- 00:08:09contact
- 00:08:11whatever is completely untranslatable
- 00:08:13into English um but I'm willing to bet
- 00:08:15that there not a single French officer
- 00:08:17actually knows that that's what scorpion
- 00:08:19stands for because they kind of invent
- 00:08:21pick the word and then invented a way to
- 00:08:25say that s going them either way it
- 00:08:27doesn't really matter um just think of
- 00:08:29it a scorpion they've got a cool logo
- 00:08:31complete with a scorpion on it's pretty
- 00:08:32cool anyways scorpion is a very large
- 00:08:34program at the heart of scorpion is a
- 00:08:36digital information architecture uh
- 00:08:39complete with new radios and new battle
- 00:08:41Battlefield management software as well
- 00:08:44as newly designed vehicles that are
- 00:08:46basically built around scorpion
- 00:08:48vbci predates scorpion and and
- 00:08:52implements the pre- Scorpion technology
- 00:08:54but of course they're they've adapted
- 00:08:56everything and brought it online so you
- 00:08:58should think of vbci as being part of
- 00:08:59the Scorpion program even though
- 00:09:01technically it predates that same is
- 00:09:03true with theair which has been they've
- 00:09:05modified it already so that it's got all
- 00:09:07the the latest tech on it so theair is
- 00:09:10also very much it's not excluded from
- 00:09:13scorpion even though it's technically
- 00:09:14not not part of it lastly scorpion is an
- 00:09:17effort to rethink for structure and
- 00:09:19tactics in order to optimize the use of
- 00:09:21the new technology so they're really
- 00:09:23thinking about like how do you redesign
- 00:09:26and how do you uh a tank company
- 00:09:29how do you fight the T company Etc
- 00:09:32scorpion by all measures is successful
- 00:09:34and I think it's fair to say that the
- 00:09:36French army is really ahead of all of
- 00:09:39the other NATO armies including possibly
- 00:09:41the United States when it comes to the
- 00:09:43development and implementation at a
- 00:09:45comprehensive level of a comprehensive
- 00:09:47modernization program in terms of
- 00:09:49Information Technology networked Warfare
- 00:09:52Etc I I think it's true based on what I
- 00:09:54read that they are really second only to
- 00:09:56the Israelis in terms of the
- 00:09:58implementation of the stuff now scorpion
- 00:10:02I want to address this scorpion uh in
- 00:10:04the associate technology can do several
- 00:10:06neat things it's got some cool tricks to
- 00:10:07it one is something called vetronics and
- 00:10:09the idea is that the the network
- 00:10:11monitors the systems on French army
- 00:10:13vehicles so that it it it's it's these
- 00:10:16vehicles send data to the network
- 00:10:19regarding the systems on the vehicle uh
- 00:10:22things that it's going to run out of
- 00:10:23things that are going to break Etc this
- 00:10:25is supposed to help the logistical
- 00:10:27effort because this enable ables the
- 00:10:29Army to have a precise understanding of
- 00:10:32what vehicle is going to need what kind
- 00:10:33of parts and when so that they could get
- 00:10:37precisely those parts to the right place
- 00:10:39at the right time so this means that
- 00:10:41they can send fewer parts right because
- 00:10:43it can be much more precise so this is
- 00:10:45supposed to help the whole logistical
- 00:10:47effort I think that the real star of the
- 00:10:49show though is the network and the
- 00:10:50battlefield management software which of
- 00:10:52course features Blue Force tracker and
- 00:10:54slw toq Technology slw to Q is the
- 00:10:57ability of the the ideas that
- 00:11:00your tanker vehicle or whatever your
- 00:11:02maybe your Caesar how it's are you get
- 00:11:04the firing data from the network right
- 00:11:06the network tells you the target is
- 00:11:08there and the cannon on your on your
- 00:11:11vehicle will automatically slew and
- 00:11:14position itself to aim precisely at that
- 00:11:17Target uh uh it will not fire
- 00:11:20automatically the French is a matter of
- 00:11:22policy do insist that they they have
- 00:11:25what's called a man in the loop the idea
- 00:11:26that somewhere in this chain there's
- 00:11:29going to be somebody who has to press a
- 00:11:31button or pull the trigger such that uh
- 00:11:34you know it's not firing automatically
- 00:11:36although I did ask a French General who
- 00:11:37was in charge of Scorpion for a while
- 00:11:39whether or not there was maybe like
- 00:11:41maybe on the back of the box in the tank
- 00:11:42you can flip a switch and the whole
- 00:11:44thing will go fully automatic he
- 00:11:46actually did not answer that question
- 00:11:47but he did say that he thought that
- 00:11:49fully automated Warfare was completely
- 00:11:51inevitable simply because fully
- 00:11:52automatic Warfare fully automating the
- 00:11:55system would save a lot of time and in
- 00:11:58some context like kind of Time Savings
- 00:12:00like squeezing out seconds out of your
- 00:12:02reaction time could be critical anyways
- 00:12:05be that as it may all of this is
- 00:12:08supposed to enable something called
- 00:12:09collaborative Warfare which is I think
- 00:12:12you can describe it as the holy Grill of
- 00:12:13all the Western militaries the idea
- 00:12:15behind collaborative Warfare is that uh
- 00:12:18you know you're out in the battlefield
- 00:12:19and you've got all these different
- 00:12:20elements because of course everything is
- 00:12:21combined arms these days so you've got
- 00:12:23the howitzers and infantry fighting
- 00:12:24vehicles and you got the tanks you got
- 00:12:26drones and fighter jets and all this
- 00:12:27kind of stuff and infantry got eyes and
- 00:12:30and the idea is that all of them are
- 00:12:31networked right all of them are sharing
- 00:12:33information and so if there's
- 00:12:34information about let's say a threat
- 00:12:36pops up maybe send me tank or maybe just
- 00:12:38some guy on a roof the with a anti-tank
- 00:12:40guided missile who's prepared to take a
- 00:12:42shot at something uh he's he's seen he's
- 00:12:46located the information is shared on the
- 00:12:48network the in the network basically
- 00:12:50delivers to uh helps decide very quickly
- 00:12:54what is the best weapons platform or
- 00:12:56weapons system that can take a shot at
- 00:12:58that threat and neutralize the threat
- 00:13:00and then you know again with sud then
- 00:13:03you know somebody's turret is going to
- 00:13:04automatically move over to take a
- 00:13:06precise shot collaborative Warfare is
- 00:13:08something that all militaries are
- 00:13:10working on uh I I believe that with the
- 00:13:13implementation of Scorpion the French is
- 00:13:15now simply ahead of the game with
- 00:13:17everybody else the British are also
- 00:13:18implementing Etc but the French is
- 00:13:20simply ahead at a at a comprehensive
- 00:13:22level now why has France been more
- 00:13:25successful I I think that there are two
- 00:13:27major reasons the first reason seon has
- 00:13:29to do with the the the predictability
- 00:13:31and stability of French military budgets
- 00:13:33and it has to do with also how the
- 00:13:35French manage their their their their
- 00:13:37budgets and their spending so that even
- 00:13:39when the French military was going
- 00:13:41through severe budget cuts which was the
- 00:13:43case up until about I think 2014 2015
- 00:13:46when around then when the French stopped
- 00:13:49cutting and it started to turn reverse
- 00:13:50the curves and started to spend more
- 00:13:52money on defense uh because of the
- 00:13:545-year military programming laws Etc I
- 00:13:57think that all the people involved in we
- 00:13:59weapons development and weapons
- 00:14:01procurement had just better visibility
- 00:14:04with regard to how much money they had
- 00:14:06and how much money they were going to
- 00:14:07have I believe that this is a key
- 00:14:09ingredient to successful modernization
- 00:14:11program the other major reason why the
- 00:14:13French have been successful where the
- 00:14:15British have failed at least with fres
- 00:14:17is that the French have done a much
- 00:14:19better job of making decisions about
- 00:14:21their requirements and then sticking to
- 00:14:23those decisions right whereas the
- 00:14:25British have had a hard time making
- 00:14:26decisions and then often after they make
- 00:14:28a decision they've changed the mind and
- 00:14:30and changed the requirements midc course
- 00:14:32which is very problematic now this does
- 00:14:35not mean and I want to stress this this
- 00:14:36does not mean that the French made the
- 00:14:38right decisions these decisions are
- 00:14:41based on your understanding of not just
- 00:14:43your current requirements but your
- 00:14:45future requirements they are calculated
- 00:14:47bets that you're making as far as I'm
- 00:14:50aware the decisions that the French army
- 00:14:52made that I'm I'm speaking about here
- 00:14:54decisions that they made if not prior to
- 00:14:562014 then at least prior to to uh 2022
- 00:15:00in other words before the French army
- 00:15:03shifted its focus to to focus
- 00:15:05single-mindedly on high-end conventional
- 00:15:08Warfare and potentially fighting the
- 00:15:11Russians the
- 00:15:14requirements of the day what they were
- 00:15:16thinking when they made the decisions
- 00:15:18which you can now see reflected in their
- 00:15:20new vehicle Fleet had to do with the
- 00:15:22French calculus of uh where a happy
- 00:15:25medium was in terms of risk and
- 00:15:28requirements they wanted to they didn't
- 00:15:30want to tell her their force to be able
- 00:15:32to be to fight to they didn't want to
- 00:15:35optimize it for the lower end of the
- 00:15:37conflict Spectrum or the higher end of
- 00:15:39the conflict spectrum they aimed instead
- 00:15:40for what they call the middle segment or
- 00:15:42the
- 00:15:43Sego so the result is a fleet of
- 00:15:46vehicles that they intended to be light
- 00:15:50enough to be deployed to let's say
- 00:15:54Africa not just deployed to Africa but
- 00:15:56also sustained in Africa particularly
- 00:15:59thech military's relatively poor
- 00:16:00logistical
- 00:16:02capabilities but heavy enough to survive
- 00:16:05on a on a battlefield and conventional
- 00:16:07Warfare now the word enough I think is
- 00:16:09very very important the US military does
- 00:16:12not like to buy things that are good
- 00:16:15enough they want Optimal Solutions and
- 00:16:19they can often afford to have Optimal
- 00:16:21Solutions so they can afford to look for
- 00:16:23optimal solutions for things the French
- 00:16:26uh have I think much more modest
- 00:16:27Ambitions because they have much more
- 00:16:29limited means and so as a result they're
- 00:16:31satisfied with enough of course whether
- 00:16:33or not something is good enough for a
- 00:16:36certain context is a risk it's it's it's
- 00:16:39a risk they're betting but that's what
- 00:16:41they're thinking of uh as a result I
- 00:16:43mean the most obvious way you can see
- 00:16:45this in the new vehicle Fleet is the
- 00:16:46fact that uh there all wheel the vbci is
- 00:16:48Wheels the Jaguar the Griffin the sural
- 00:16:50they all have wheels the only things now
- 00:16:53in the French army inventory that still
- 00:16:55have caterpillar tracks so they the
- 00:16:57Clare main battle tank and I believe
- 00:16:59that they still have some of their old
- 00:17:01au1 self-re howitzers from the 1980s I
- 00:17:05think they still have some of them in
- 00:17:06their inventory some of them in their
- 00:17:07atolia units but those I believe are
- 00:17:09slated to be phased out by the Caesar
- 00:17:11Howitzer a s self-propelled Howitzer
- 00:17:14which is on a truck chassis with with
- 00:17:16wheels wheels are optimal for deploying
- 00:17:19to places like Africa they are not
- 00:17:22optimal for slugging out for the
- 00:17:23Russians in Ukraine and we've seen this
- 00:17:25in the Ukraine war that the wheel
- 00:17:26vehicles have suffered have not done as
- 00:17:28well
- 00:17:29as the track vehicles given the snow
- 00:17:31given the mud the very difficult
- 00:17:33conditions but that's what you see and
- 00:17:35and so when the French now they're
- 00:17:37thinking about restoring their cap cap
- 00:17:39capability to do high in conventional
- 00:17:42Warfare they're trying to do it with a
- 00:17:44force that ultimately is designed for
- 00:17:47something else it's designed for the
- 00:17:48middle segment rather than the force
- 00:17:50that perhaps they would have designed if
- 00:17:52they had been focus on conventional
- 00:17:54Warfare 20 30 years ago when they're
- 00:17:57making decisions that uh are now
- 00:17:59reflected in their their vehicle
- 00:18:01Fleet okay so let's talk now about how
- 00:18:03the British and the French armies are
- 00:18:05similar in the previous video about the
- 00:18:08French army I talked about the British
- 00:18:09army I talked about how the Ukraine war
- 00:18:12has revealed certain capabilities to be
- 00:18:16essential on the modern Battlefield and
- 00:18:18these are capabilities that Western
- 00:18:20armies including the British including
- 00:18:22the French either do not really have
- 00:18:25because they're new or have
- 00:18:29but are really more legacies from the
- 00:18:31cold war and are capabilities that
- 00:18:33they've disinvested from meaning they
- 00:18:35don't have a lot of it or what they have
- 00:18:37just as simply inadequate or too few Etc
- 00:18:40and so the idea is that all Western
- 00:18:41militaries are in the same kind of boat
- 00:18:44and they need to boost these
- 00:18:45capabilities and they do do it either
- 00:18:47fill the capability gaps or enhance the
- 00:18:49capabilities that they have and they
- 00:18:51need do do it really quickly so what am
- 00:18:53I talking about I'm talking about air
- 00:18:54defense capabilities I'm talking about
- 00:18:56drones counter drone capabilities I'm
- 00:18:58talking about ISR counter ISR long range
- 00:19:02fires I'm thinking tube and and Rocket
- 00:19:04artillery electronic warfare and I think
- 00:19:07also certain engineering capabilities
- 00:19:08like breaching capabilities and bridging
- 00:19:11capabilities these things are equally
- 00:19:14true of both the British and the French
- 00:19:16army so both of them really are
- 00:19:18inadequate in this regard both for
- 00:19:20example have uh Howers and self Howers
- 00:19:24but really very few both of them have
- 00:19:26multiple launch rocket systems but very
- 00:19:28few I think actually the British have
- 00:19:29more than the French both of them only
- 00:19:31have a few main battle tanks roughly
- 00:19:33about 200 both of them by the way
- 00:19:35neither is capable of building new main
- 00:19:37battle tanks because the assembly lines
- 00:19:38closed a long time ago both armies also
- 00:19:42have too little uh they don't have
- 00:19:46enough ammunition they don't have enough
- 00:19:47missiles the result being that neither
- 00:19:49would last very long in any kind of war
- 00:19:51and both now I think are struggling both
- 00:19:53to restore their own stocks while also
- 00:19:55trying to keep ammunition in the
- 00:19:57pipeline for the ukrainians to use I
- 00:19:59believe that the French defense industry
- 00:20:01is healthier than the British defense
- 00:20:02industry simply as a result of
- 00:20:04long-standing French industrial policy
- 00:20:07that being said neither defense industry
- 00:20:09has much in the way of industrial
- 00:20:11capacity they they're making things but
- 00:20:13they can't really crank them out in very
- 00:20:15large numbers which would be necessary
- 00:20:16in the invent of a major war to give you
- 00:20:19an example uh the Caesar howitz or sthal
- 00:20:22Howitzer right now after a lot of effort
- 00:20:25trying to ramp up the capacity the
- 00:20:28manufacturer of the Caesar which is
- 00:20:30nexter can make 70 of them a year but
- 00:20:33that's only now right just a few years
- 00:20:35ago they could make much fewer than that
- 00:20:37I don't remember the numbers but 70 is
- 00:20:39not really a lot now what about 155 mm
- 00:20:43Howitzer shells which we have all
- 00:20:46learned in because the Ukraine war are
- 00:20:48absolutely essential This Is Like Oxygen
- 00:20:51for for an army engaged in a
- 00:20:53conventional fight uh my source on the
- 00:20:56the the French uh and their ability to
- 00:20:59manufacture these shells is Jean Dominic
- 00:21:02M uh this man here uh for those of you
- 00:21:06who are not French and probably are not
- 00:21:07familiar with him Jean Dominique m is
- 00:21:10one of France's leading uh journalists
- 00:21:13analysts and commentators on
- 00:21:15international relations National
- 00:21:16Security and and the defense defense
- 00:21:19establishment French military he's
- 00:21:21really really very good this is a
- 00:21:24book are we ready for war which came out
- 00:21:27in January of 2024 M says that he does
- 00:21:31not know how many howzer shells the
- 00:21:33French can manufacture a year because
- 00:21:35the number is classified he does say
- 00:21:37that nexter which makes these shells for
- 00:21:39the French army recently has stated that
- 00:21:43they intend to double the rate of shell
- 00:21:46production to 100,000 per year by
- 00:21:492025 which suggests that right now that
- 00:21:53100,000 is the doubled amount that means
- 00:21:55that they are now making 50,000 per year
- 00:21:58he also reports that the French army
- 00:22:00itself says that they can sustain a rate
- 00:22:03of Howard
- 00:22:05fire uh of at most 9,000 Howards or
- 00:22:09shells per year given the current rate
- 00:22:12of production which he notes is roughly
- 00:22:15the same number of poer shells that the
- 00:22:17Ukrainian Army fires each and every day
- 00:22:21meaning that France isn't producing
- 00:22:22nearly enough hoarder shells what about
- 00:22:25the British again I I don't know how
- 00:22:27many hoarder shells the British are are
- 00:22:29capable of producing uh that number
- 00:22:31probably is classified I do know that
- 00:22:33the ministry of Defense has thrown a lot
- 00:22:35of money recently at the Bae which is
- 00:22:37the company that makes them for the
- 00:22:38British Army in order to uh scale up the
- 00:22:41production of shells what are the
- 00:22:42numbers I don't know I suspect they're
- 00:22:44not really high enough another big
- 00:22:47similarity with the two armies is that
- 00:22:49neither really has the means to fight a
- 00:22:51large War because they just simply lack
- 00:22:53in Mass they just don't have numbers
- 00:22:55they have too few stuff right too few
- 00:22:58things
- 00:22:59uh in the last video I described the
- 00:23:00British army as a bonsai tree the French
- 00:23:02army is itself a bonsai tree it's a
- 00:23:05better tended bonsai tree I would argue
- 00:23:07it's a little bit larger but it's still
- 00:23:08a bonsai tree so could Britain fight a
- 00:23:11major ground war I don't really think so
- 00:23:13could France fight a major ground
- 00:23:15war yeah um uh M says that the French
- 00:23:19army could manage a front of 80
- 00:23:21kilometers which sounds a lot but really
- 00:23:23isn't uh and it's certainly a far cry
- 00:23:26from what the French army was capable of
- 00:23:28during the cold war or you know during
- 00:23:30or prior to World War II would these
- 00:23:33armies be of any use I think that they
- 00:23:35would be but but not necessarily for
- 00:23:37long I mean both armies are really
- 00:23:38counting on quality over quantity
- 00:23:40they're they're betting over that
- 00:23:42throwing money at technology or uh a
- 00:23:46training right which is going to give
- 00:23:48them like they've got all these really
- 00:23:49great things and these very wellt
- 00:23:50trained soldiers that that's going to
- 00:23:53get them somewhere and that's really
- 00:23:54going to to help them uh and and I
- 00:23:57there's some truth truth to that right
- 00:23:59you know like a caesar howitz or an as90
- 00:24:01or one of these new boxer howitzers that
- 00:24:03the British army you're getting uh
- 00:24:05they're clearly better than a certain
- 00:24:07number of inferior housers but what
- 00:24:09exactly is the ratio and isn't enough to
- 00:24:12make up to vastly Superior numbers that
- 00:24:13the enemy might be able to throw at them
- 00:24:15and is it a better invest of the money
- 00:24:17it's really very hard to know perhaps
- 00:24:19after the Ukraine war we can analyze the
- 00:24:21data and we could say you know because
- 00:24:23the the the the ukrainians have maybe a
- 00:24:25dozen Caesar plus they've got some
- 00:24:27German uh self forb Howard shows that
- 00:24:29are supposed to be excellent you know
- 00:24:31maybe you can see that okay each one of
- 00:24:33these things is worth X number of
- 00:24:35inferior things and then you could kind
- 00:24:37of do the math and figure out which is
- 00:24:39the better buy it's really hard to know
- 00:24:41but I don't think we know at the moment
- 00:24:43I do strongly believe that
- 00:24:45pound-for-pound both armies are very
- 00:24:49good and both armies would cut the
- 00:24:50Russians to Pieces uh I will bet money
- 00:24:53on any British or French infantry squad
- 00:24:56or company or Tank Company over nearly
- 00:24:59any conceivable adversary just because
- 00:25:01of their training their skills they're
- 00:25:03really really very good both of them uh
- 00:25:06I think the training in professionalism
- 00:25:07really counts for a lot we saw this in
- 00:25:09the fauland war where in the fauland war
- 00:25:12you had a relatively small number of
- 00:25:14highly trained British professionals go
- 00:25:16up against Argentine conscript it was
- 00:25:19hardly a fair fight which is exactly
- 00:25:21what you want you don't want a fair
- 00:25:22fight in combat um and and I I also
- 00:25:26think that the French with their
- 00:25:27emphasis on maneuver and speed and and
- 00:25:29having uh uh lower ranking officers take
- 00:25:33the initiative I think they they would
- 00:25:34dance around the Russians and just
- 00:25:36slotter them but then they'd run out of
- 00:25:37ammunition and they might run out out of
- 00:25:39ammunition really very quickly and then
- 00:25:42at some point the Russians could just
- 00:25:44drown them in Mass just overwhelm them
- 00:25:46with with the sheer numbers we like to
- 00:25:48laugh at the images of these these the
- 00:25:50Russians sending t-62s into battle on
- 00:25:52Ukraine t62 is of course being these
- 00:25:54ancient Cold War vintage things that are
- 00:25:57cre easily wildly obsolete on the modern
- 00:26:00battlefield but it's not funny anymore
- 00:26:02if youve got nothing left in your
- 00:26:03inventory to stop the t62 other than
- 00:26:06maybe be throwing rocks at them so at
- 00:26:08that point the t62 actually becomes a
- 00:26:10significant threat to to your own side
- 00:26:13the reality is that both armies reflect
- 00:26:15the fact that between the end of the
- 00:26:16Cold War and relatively recently neither
- 00:26:18country took seriously the possibility
- 00:26:20of ending up in a large war and
- 00:26:23certainly not one in Europe they as a
- 00:26:26result they're really just not equipped
- 00:26:27to do that
- 00:26:28so let's agree that neither Army can
- 00:26:31handle a big war at least for any length
- 00:26:33of time although I would argue that the
- 00:26:34French because of the larger size would
- 00:26:36do a little bit better but so what so
- 00:26:39now we get to part part four does it
- 00:26:41really matter in the end do they really
- 00:26:44need to be able to do this nuclear
- 00:26:46weapons still exists the Russians still
- 00:26:48have nuclear weapons during the Cold War
- 00:26:50the French calculated that that they
- 00:26:52even though they had a gigantic Army at
- 00:26:54the time that that a war with the
- 00:26:57Soviets sooner rather than later was
- 00:26:58going to end up going Nuclear So they
- 00:27:00didn't need an army that could actually
- 00:27:02fight the Soviets for the duration
- 00:27:04because there would be no duration there
- 00:27:05would be nuclear war or hopefully there
- 00:27:08would be some sort of offramp that both
- 00:27:09sides would would would find before the
- 00:27:13thing went nuclear and the and the and
- 00:27:14the world ended if the British and
- 00:27:16French are not fighting the Russians
- 00:27:18then who are they actually fighting like
- 00:27:20who what plausible scenario is there
- 00:27:22actually that either country would find
- 00:27:24themselves in a major land war against
- 00:27:26whom and where and when and also neither
- 00:27:29country is likely for the foreseeable
- 00:27:31future to do what it takes to fix this
- 00:27:34situation which is to spend a lot of
- 00:27:37money many many billions of dollars to
- 00:27:41turn their armies into things that are
- 00:27:43actually capable of getting into and
- 00:27:46sustaining and fighting large Ground
- 00:27:48Wars in in Europe against somebody like
- 00:27:50the Russians or I don't know who it's
- 00:27:52just not going to happen so I want to
- 00:27:54leave you I want to leave you with some
- 00:27:56concluding remarks from Jean Dominique m
- 00:27:58uh and he's of course talking about
- 00:27:59France and the French army but I believe
- 00:28:01that what John M M says is equally
- 00:28:05applicable to the United Kingdom and the
- 00:28:07British army mé calls for not spending
- 00:28:12more money but for greater
- 00:28:14resilience and he talks about the French
- 00:28:17in the in 1914 and he talks about how
- 00:28:20France just barely hung on at the first
- 00:28:23battle of the mar and then afterwards
- 00:28:25was able to to sort of absorb the
- 00:28:27horrible losses of 1914 and then to
- 00:28:30adapt he says that it it adapted it
- 00:28:32built up the the quote kind of force and
- 00:28:34quality and quantity that it needed and
- 00:28:37he says that France's industry and its
- 00:28:39people also responded beautiful
- 00:28:41beautifully and with a remarkable sense
- 00:28:43of unity and purpose now France today he
- 00:28:46says I'm quoting we must therefore
- 00:28:49cultivate our faculty for resilience but
- 00:28:52above all for adaptation flexibility and
- 00:28:54elasticity first of all intellectually
- 00:28:57to do that M writes we have permanently
- 00:29:00to encourage strategic debate and to
- 00:29:02listen to those who think outside the
- 00:29:04box that comfortable box that ensures
- 00:29:07good careers and the financing and
- 00:29:09research contracts further M concludes
- 00:29:12it's not for war that we must be ready
- 00:29:14because that is impossible rather what
- 00:29:16one must be ready for is quote the the
- 00:29:19possibility of having to adapt quickly
- 00:29:21and well to a radically new situation
- 00:29:24this he adds might be War but it also
- 00:29:27goes for other major threats such as
- 00:29:28pandemics natural or Technic
- 00:29:30technological catastrophes or economic
- 00:29:33crashes if you like this video thank you
- 00:29:35very much please like And subscribe you
- 00:29:37know the drill also please check out in
- 00:29:39the description I put links to uh
- 00:29:41various articles I've written about the
- 00:29:43British and the French armies as well as
- 00:29:45my LinkedIn my Twitter to my website
- 00:29:47Michael shen.com and my substack and if
- 00:29:50you have any recommendations if there's
- 00:29:52something that you'd like me to talk
- 00:29:53about in the future uh add them to your
- 00:29:55comments uh I've had a lot of good
- 00:29:57recommendations so I've got a lot of
- 00:29:59stuff in the pipeline as a result thank
- 00:30:01you very much
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