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Tom Lee one of the best analysts in the
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business just did something insane
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number one he went on CNBC and called
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bottom for the stock market this week he
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then went ahead and published this
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article on his website saying the best
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10 days are probably coming this week a
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lot of bullishness coming out out of Tom
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Lee we got to talk about it a lot to
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cover first of all let's start with the
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CNBC interview I'm going to play with
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the clip talk about it and then we'll
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talk about the insane article he posted
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about the stock market which is giving a
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lot of people a lot of hope we'll see
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how real and legit that is first of all
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the clip with all the bad news that
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we're hearing about these policies
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everybody's thinks the Market's headed
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lower yes but instead we could be
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bottoming maybe this week now as you
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know this channel I don't hold you
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hostage so don't click nothing don't
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smash nothing don't buy nothing let's go
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through what Tom Le said just the bottom
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line just the highlights number one he
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is calling bottom probably this week now
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he didn't commit to it but he's saying
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if the stars line we have a chance of
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getting a bottom this week now he talks
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about the fact that he doesn't believe
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Donald Trump is going to get the economy
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to stall speed and he's about to roll
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back some of this tariff talk he's also
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talking about the FED getting off the
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hockey stance and more to a d stance
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actually accelerating the interest rate
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cuts a lot faster than people think and
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he's also talking about the indicators
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as far as crowd psychology he's seeing
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from the market seeing a day like Friday
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where you had bad news but the market
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was going up and a day like yesterday
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where the market went up for no reason
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then do for no reason this insanity is
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basically a signal for him for a bottom
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now I'll also show you this article on
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the screen right now this article was
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posted on FS Insight a best 10 days
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probably coming this week now Tomley
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went ahead and published this article on
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his own website and I'm also going to
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give you the highlights from that he's
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basically talking about the fact that
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probably this week we're going to see
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turn around the market going against the
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narrative against grain most people are
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seeing a lot more bearishness from this
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Market a lot of experts are saying we're
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headed downstairs for a lot lower Tomy
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saying hey this is the reversal now
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whether he's right or wrong I want you
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to listen to his theory in this article
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he's also talking about the fact that it
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is really a bad idea and an unrewarding
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exercise to try and get out during a
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pullback because some of the best days
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of the stock market historically came
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during a bad time when you had a lot of
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bad days sometimes one or two days in
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between could be one of the greatest
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days of the year they don't always come
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during a bull market and he also showed
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in this specific article something I've
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been saying for months if not for years
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which is if you miss the best 10 days
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you're going to diminish your returns
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insanely now I always talk about the
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fact that over the past 20 years if you
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miss the top 10 days well that means you
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diminish your returns by 50% Tom le as
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he usually does went ahead deeper into
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data and went all the way back to
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1928 and he basically said from 1928
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until now if you missed the top 10 days
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you have diminished your annual average
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returns from Plus 8 to minus33 that is
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insane now he also went ahead and tested
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2015 to now which is a 10year period
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lowering your returns from + 12 to minus
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10 so he's basically saying look folks
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even if you want to time the market even
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if you think you can if you happen to
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make a little mistake and you'll miss
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the top 10 days you're going to kill the
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entire upside of staying in the market
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he basically says that the market moves
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mostly on those 10 days those Peak 10
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days are the ones that actually moving
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the market not the rest of the time now
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if you look at the past two years it's
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also a data point he tested and said
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look over the past two years we had an
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incredibly bullish Market with did 60%
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30 % in 2023 30% in 2024 but if you miss
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the top 10 days in these two years your
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turns are going to be 4% per year
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instead of 30% per year again this is
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insane data he's basically saying hey do
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not time the market it is a futile thing
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to do even if you think it's coming down
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lower even if you think it's going to go
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up and it's going to reverse it doesn't
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matter timing the market is a bad idea
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it's not me saying it it's not Tom Lee
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saying it it literally is the data
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saying it and he actually explains in
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this article why he thinks the reversal
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is a lot closer than people think think
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about it this way whenever we had a big
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crash in the stock market right nobody
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has ever expected it whenever we have a
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reversal nobody expected it as well in
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2023 nobody thought the market is going
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to go crazy in 2022 nobody thought the
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market is going to crash and correct
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these things happened out of the blue
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they by definition happen against the
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general consensus against the general
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narrative so when somebody expects
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something in the stock market usually
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doesn't play like this now he's saying
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look if I look across the board and I'm
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seeing extreme fear on the fear and
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greed index I'm seeing Panic hitting
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Peak levels and we have a lot of the
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worst probably behind us because by the
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time everybody's panicking it usually
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means that the bad times have ran their
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course he also talks about the fact that
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Trump is eventually starting to roll
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back some of that tariff talk he uses
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that as a flamboyant way to get a
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attention he's an agent of chaos he
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likes to throw his weight around but
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does he want to bring the economy to
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stall speed Tomley says that he doesn't
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think so and I've said it before in my
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videos a lot of these analysts they're
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saying look folks Trump you may like him
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you may dislike him it's not a political
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question and a lot of these analysts
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they believe he's going to bend and bend
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and bend but he's not going to break
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because it is irrational and illogical
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and they believe that despite his flaws
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and issues they may have with Donald
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Trump right his Iraq rational player and
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a rational player is not going to break
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the stock market and the economy just to
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throw his weight around now whether he's
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right or wrong only Donald Trump knows
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and we're about to find out he also says
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that if this continues we'll probably
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have a weaker jobs report a weaker macro
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data that means that the FED will have
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to accelerate the rate cuts that they
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plan to later this year and that's going
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to push the stock market a lot higher
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now this is an interesting thesis now if
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Tomley is right about this good we just
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keep keep on DCA keep on chugging along
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into the Afterlife no problem nothing
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changes but Tom what if this guy is
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wrong what if Tom Lee is absolutely
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wrong about this and we're headed to a
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major major correction what if this
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isn't the bottom well that's great news
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Tom have you lost your mind no let me
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explain that is great news because as
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I've been explaining to you for years
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and years and years waiting for this
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moment I told you the real money in the
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stock market is not made in Bull markets
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it is made in bare markets it is made in
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Corrections it is made in crashes the
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millions the real generational money is
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made when the market corrects just like
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we've done in 2022 yeah the last few
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years they were great but if you haven't
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been buying penter at six and at 10 and
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at 12 and at 15 you've only started
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buying at 70 well you're up 10% 15%
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we're up all the way from $66
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the same thing is happening again we've
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been praying for this we've been saying
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we need a dip we need a correction we
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need the weak hands to leave the traders
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to leave so we can get some discounts
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the real money is made when the market
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crashes and guess what what most people
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don't understand because of their
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Goldfish Memory is that these crashes
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are a lot shorter than it feels like if
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you're sitting with a nice girl and you
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having a nice chat and a girl that you
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particularly like well 5 hours can feel
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like 10 minutes but if you're in the
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dentist half an hour can feel like 5
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hours think about it whenever we are
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waiting in line it feels like eternity
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even though it might be objectively 10
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15 minutes but it feels like forever
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because that's relative the same thing
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with the stock market when the bare
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Market hits people feel like it's a lot
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longer than it really is and if you look
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at the data look at the data the average
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bare Market in America last 10 months
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they rarely go beyond two and a half
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three years while the bull markets last
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on average five years years and they
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usually go from 5 to 10 years so if
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we're playing the odds game if we
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understand that one is average 10 months
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the other one is average five years and
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if this is a roulette table where would
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you put your money on something that
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lasts 10 months on something that lasts
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five years you have to play the odds a
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bull market is a lot more common and
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even if you look at the past 25 years we
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had four major Corrections in the stock
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market for 2020 2022 2008 2000 not that
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particular order but they were
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significant and yet the stock market in
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that time gave you
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500% look it's very very simple you have
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to be in the market in order not to miss
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the best 10 days look at what happened
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in the covid crash the co crash happened
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a lot of people panicked the stock
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market drops all the way to 2300 the S&P
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500 drops to
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2,300 5 years later we're up 200% with
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it 40% a year on average if you left
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because you panck during the co Insanity
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freak out you've missed on one of the
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greatest bull runs in history and yes
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the markets are a little bit shaky right
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now but that's because the markets hate
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uncertainty hate risk whenever Trump
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starts talking about tariffs nobody
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really cares what the end result is
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going to be like nobody cares that Trump
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is most likely not going to pull the
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trigger that the final result is not
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going to be as bad nobody cares the end
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result is not relevant what's relevant
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is the risk and the potential of really
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really bad things that has to be priced
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in into the market and that's what we
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have right now A knee-jerk reaction to
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stuff Donald Trump said nothing concrete
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yet no policies have been truly
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established as longterm nobody really
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knows what's going to happen and that
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uncertainty leads to a lot of pricing
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pressure and I understand that people
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freak out I understand a lot of you have
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joined the stock market recently but
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those of you who are new you have to
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understand this isn't something that's
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new To Us by the way February March two
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of the weakest months in the stock
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market seasonally so this is nothing
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special we've also seen the market pull
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back and correct all the time if you
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zoom out you're going to see a lot of
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Corrections even though the line keeps
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going up we have 5% Corrections three
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times a year this is nothing when we
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have a crash that is driven by nothing
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that has to do with the companies you
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invested in it's not like if you bought
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Nvidia stock Nvidia is no longer a good
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company it's not like if you bought
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Tesla stock Tesla somehow have lost its
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dominance in the Eevee Market it's not
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that penter just lost its government
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contracts like if something happens that
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is company specific that crashes the
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stock of a company regardless of the
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market that's a whole different inada my
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friends but that's not the case here
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when you have a macro driven correction
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or a macro driven stock market crash
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where all stocks in t them are falling
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because of something that has nothing to
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do with the companies it's some sort of
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an overall macroeconomic reason right
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when that happens history teaches us one
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important lesson that is long-term a
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buying opport
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as long as you do it slow a lot of
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people misunderstand what I'm saying and
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they going to lump some into the stock
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market thinking oh my God yeah Tom said
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it's a buying opportunity we don't know
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where the floor is Tomley says this week
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it might be next year who knows you
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don't know where the floor is so what
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you do is you slowly dollar cust average
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down you don't go lumpsum and betting on
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this is being the bottom right you
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slowly dollar across average as it drops
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and that way you get to not time the
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Market even once now if you do it slow
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you understand one thing you're going to
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be writing the market cycle the market
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cycle repeats itself like clockwork this
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is literally like a time machine the
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market cycle is undefeated it's always
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the same doubt then hype then crash then
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doubt then hype and the crash it will
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repeat itself endless amounts of time
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like Neo in the matrix it's been going
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on forever if you know this you
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understand this principle all you have
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to do is buy it all time and double down
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on the way down and that way eventually
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you get to buy paler at 6 at 10 at 15 at
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20 and let the market do its thing and
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it crashes again but's say 60 70 50
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whatever it's going to land at you do it
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all over again but the bottom point is
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always going to be higher and higher and
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higher as long as the company is
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actually a solid company which in the
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case of paler and Tesla and Nvidia and
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all these great companies that are being
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sold at a discount right now is indeed
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the case so all you got to do is relax
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understand that DCA is the right way
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dollar cost average is the right way
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understand that the biggest challenge of
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investing especially in volatile
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turbulent times is the psychology what
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beats investors is this not the
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mathematics not the models not nothing
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this and this is where you lose if you
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get emotional if you panic if you start
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doubting yourself if you haven't done
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the research if you don't understand why
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you bought certain stocks if you don't
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know why you invested in paler and Tesla
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then it's very easy to panic but if you
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you've done the work you've done the
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research yourself and you have a strong
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conviction and you understand the
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quality of the businesses you invested
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in and you understand the patterns of
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the S&P 500 this is a very good time for
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you you're enjoying this you're saying
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oh my God this is beautiful we're going
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to get to replay 2022 again maybe it
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takes a year maybe two years maybe 10
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months maybe it's five months I don't
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know but we're going to get a lot of
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discounts and then over the next 5 years
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we're just going to write it up well all
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of these other yahoos are going to be
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bailing the ship that's fine the Traders
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are going to be leaving that's fine
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we're going to make that generational
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Gap it's not as easy as it sounds a lot
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of people struggle with that psychology
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and I get it but here's the thing a lot
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of people ask me at this point well Tom
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where do you even have money to
00:14:11
continuously dollar cross average I mean
00:14:13
at this point we're already fully
00:14:14
deployed that's because you're not
00:14:15
dollar cross averaging I've explained
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this in my Academy in fact lecture
00:14:19
number one in my Academy DCA 101
00:14:22
literally explains this there is a way
00:14:24
to dollar cost average so that you
00:14:27
always have extra money to deploy at all
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times whether you're making 20,000 a
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year 200,000 a year or 2 million a year
00:14:35
there is a way to always have money to
00:14:37
deploy and dollar cost average if you do
00:14:39
it correctly that is why I keep telling
00:14:41
you join the academy
00:14:43
painting.com Nash and you're going to
00:14:44
learn these principles you're going to
00:14:45
learn how to DCA you're going to learn
00:14:47
how to build conviction you're going to
00:14:49
surround yourself with people who are
00:14:50
smart and educated and experienced and
00:14:53
hardened which will prevent you from
00:14:55
making emotional decisions would love to
00:14:57
see you there I'll see you next one
00:14:58
peace
