Arthur Hayes on Tariffs, Crypto Predictions, QE & Trump Pardon!

00:53:54
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5fraBLSHKw

摘要

TLDRDans cette interview, Arthur Hayes partage sa vision du marché des cryptomonnaies, prédisant que Bitcoin atteindra des sommets impressionnants d'ici 2027. Il défend l'idée qu'Ethereum, malgré les critiques, a le potentiel de prospérer en raison de son écosystème solide et de l'adoption croissante. Alors que les politiques monétaires de la Réserve fédérale et les nouveaux tarifs de Trump perturbent les marchés, Hayes exprime ses attentes pour un retournement cyclique imminent et le rôle crucial que les actifs numériques joueront dans l'économie future.

心得

  • 🚀 **Bitcoin atteindra 999 999 $ d'ici 2027.**
  • 📈 **Ethereum a une base d'utilisateurs solide et des développeurs actifs.**
  • 🌊 **La domination de Bitcoin continuera d'augmenter jusqu'à un nouveau cycle.**
  • 💰 **La Réserve fédérale agira pour soutenir le gouvernement, entraînant plus d'impression monétaire.**
  • ⚠️ **Les tarifs de Trump pourraient catalyser des mouvements dans les marchés financiers.**
  • 🔍 **Seuls les projets avec une vraie valeur et des bénéfices attireront des investisseurs à l'avenir.**
  • 🔄 **Une prochaine saison des altcoins dépendra de l'apparition de nouveaux projets probants.**
  • 🤔 **Les mouvements du marché seront influencés par les sentiments politiques et économiques globaux.**
  • 🇺🇸 **L'incertitude politique aux États-Unis affecte le sentiment du marché.**
  • 🌍 **Les pays pourraient adopter le bitcoin par le biais de l'exploitation minière plutôt que par l'achat direct.**

时间轴

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    L'interview commence avec une conversation sur une analyse de Jerome Powell et son rôle au sein des politiques monétaires américaines, mettant en avant comment la Réserve Fédérale fonctionne souvent selon les besoins du gouvernement plutôt que son indépendance proclamée. Cela se base sur des événements historiques où la Fed a fusionné avec le Trésor pour aider à financer des efforts de guerre.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    À la suite de cette analyse, l'animateur souligne le paradoxe de l'économie actuelle, où malgré une croissance du PIB et un faible taux de chômage, Powell semble hésiter à poursuivre un resserrement quantitatif, ce qui soulève des questions sur les véritables motivations derrière ses décisions.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    L'interview se concentre ensuite sur les prévisions concernant le bitcoin et ses cycles de prix, avec l'invité prédisant que le bitcoin atteindra son plus haut niveau autour de 2027, tout en apportant ses réflexions sur la performance des actions technologiques américaines qui pourraient en pâtir.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Arthur Hayes, co-fondateur de BitMEX, exprime son opinion sur les crypto-monnaies, en plaçant l'accent sur Bitcoin et Ethereum, suggérant qu'Ethereum pourrait surpasser Solana dans un futur proche, ce qui reflète un changement dans le sentiment du marché.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Concernant les actifs numériques, il précise que malgré son pessimisme sur d'autres altcoins, il reste très optimiste à propos des projets avec une véritable adoption et des fondamentaux solides, mettant l'accent sur leur capacité à attirer des investissements institutionnels.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    Les discussions se déplacent vers les politiques fiscales de Trump, où Hayes souligne que des changements dans le paysage économique mondial, notamment des tarifs, entraînent une nécessité croissante de créer plus de monnaie, ce qui pourrait indirectement stimuler le marché des cryptomonnaies.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    Une attention particulière est accordée à la Réserve Fédérale des États-Unis, en discutant des facteurs qui influencent les décisions de imprimante monétaire, ainsi que de la possibilité d'une future crise de liquidité.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    L'invité fait référence à la forte hausse possible de Bitcoin à mesure que la demande pour des actifs refuges augmente, et souligne l'impact que le comportement des autres économies pourrait avoir sur le marché des cryptomonnaies.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:45:00

    En ce qui concerne la dynamique du marché, l'importance d'acquérir des actifs sous-évalués est mentionnée, tout en soulignant que la plupart des altcoins manquent de vraies innovations ou d'applications pratiques dans le contrat, ce qui nuit à leur performance par rapport à Bitcoin.

  • 00:45:00 - 00:53:54

    Enfin, l'interview se termine avec un regard sur les événements récents concernant Hyperlquid, confirmant la nécessité pour les protocoles d'échanges de rester vigilant et de s'adapter aux défis du marché tout en étant soutenus par une communauté de développeurs actifs et engagés.

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思维导图

视频问答

  • Quel est le cycle de prix prévu pour Bitcoin selon Arthur Hayes ?

    Arthur Hayes prédit que le prix de Bitcoin atteindra 999 999 $ d'ici 2027.

  • Pourquoi Arthur Hayes croit-il qu'Ethereum surpassera Solana ?

    Hayes pense qu'Ethereum a une meilleure base d'utilisateurs, une sécurité accrue et est le leader du développement dans l'écosystème de la cryptomonnaie.

  • Quel est le sentiment d'Arthur Hayes sur la prochaine saison des altcoins ?

    Il pense que la domination de Bitcoin va continuer d'augmenter jusqu'à ce qu'il y ait des projets valables et rentables dans l'espace des altcoins.

  • Quel est l'avis d'Arthur sur la Réserve fédérale et ses politiques ?

    Hayes indique que la Réserve fédérale agira pour soutenir le gouvernement, ce qui devrait favoriser l'impression monétaire.

  • Quelles sont les attentes d'Arthur concernant l'impact des tarifs de Trump sur les marchés ?

    Il voit ces tarifs comme une force perturbatrice qui pourrait entraîner une augmentation des impressions monétaires.

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  • 00:00:00
    indeed your latest piece is titled and I
  • 00:00:02
    quote BBC and uh you use some very
  • 00:00:05
    colorful scene to depict Jerome Pal and
  • 00:00:08
    correct me if I'm wrong submitting to
  • 00:00:10
    fiscal dominance of Mr Bessant while
  • 00:00:13
    watching in his cuck chair So
  • 00:00:16
    essentially what I'm arguing and I think
  • 00:00:18
    it's backed up by historical fact is
  • 00:00:20
    that the Fed chairperson a few weeks ago
  • 00:00:22
    you had a tweet that said um you think
  • 00:00:24
    that ETH will hit 5K before soul hits
  • 00:00:27
    300 My question to you was that
  • 00:00:29
    engagement bait or do you actually
  • 00:00:31
    believe that The way I'd couch this
  • 00:00:33
    answer is if I had a fresh unit of fiat
  • 00:00:35
    and I had to decide if I'm going to buy
  • 00:00:37
    Ethereum or Salana I would buy What
  • 00:00:39
    other altcoins then are you interested
  • 00:00:41
    in that you find and you and you're also
  • 00:00:43
    allocating towards I think you know the
  • 00:00:45
    new management there is laser focused on
  • 00:00:47
    getting retail adoption bringing trading
  • 00:00:49
    flows on chain They're very energized
  • 00:00:51
    They have a fire under their ass They
  • 00:00:52
    have something to prove I like them
  • 00:00:54
    obviously I think they could be an
  • 00:00:55
    outperformer this next leg higher I'm
  • 00:00:57
    curious and feel free to pass on this
  • 00:00:59
    question but um you know you were
  • 00:01:01
    recently pardoned by the man himself Um
  • 00:01:04
    so my first question is how did that
  • 00:01:06
    feel And then secondly do you think he's
  • 00:01:07
    a fan Trump sign our pardon and you know
  • 00:01:10
    thankfully the administration did Well
  • 00:01:12
    you're saying that none of like you know
  • 00:01:14
    I I chose that pardon because you know
  • 00:01:15
    I've watched Mr a lot of Mr Hayes
  • 00:01:17
    interviews I would be flattered if he
  • 00:01:18
    did I'm not sure I'm not sure if he'd
  • 00:01:21
    ask them So some rapid fire questions on
  • 00:01:23
    predictions So I'm curious firstly
  • 00:01:25
    Bitcoin cycle top price and when do you
  • 00:01:28
    think we could see that I think Bitcoin
  • 00:01:30
    cycle top 2027 I'm going to go out there
  • 00:01:34
    top price $1 less And that's Arthur
  • 00:01:37
    Hayes cycle top 2027 prediction GM Coin
  • 00:01:40
    Bureau cryptofam and welcome to another
  • 00:01:42
    interview Now today we've got a really
  • 00:01:45
    episode because we of course joined by a
  • 00:01:47
    returning guest who I am sure needs no
  • 00:01:49
    introduction He's the co-founder of
  • 00:01:52
    BitMX and the founder of Melstrom his
  • 00:01:54
    family office I'm of course talking
  • 00:01:56
    about Mr Arthur Hayes a real crypto OG
  • 00:01:59
    So Arthur welcome back to the Coin
  • 00:02:01
    Bureau sir Thank you for having me Cool
  • 00:02:04
    man So guys before we kick off few quick
  • 00:02:06
    disclaimers Obviously nothing in this
  • 00:02:08
    interview is financial or investment
  • 00:02:10
    advice So please consult not only the
  • 00:02:12
    disclaimer in the description but of
  • 00:02:14
    course your own financial advisor Now
  • 00:02:17
    Arthur uh you have some of the most
  • 00:02:19
    engaging writing around Um thank you
  • 00:02:23
    Indeed your latest piece is titled and I
  • 00:02:25
    quote BBC and uh you use some very
  • 00:02:29
    colorful scene to depict Jerome Pal and
  • 00:02:32
    correct me if I'm wrong submitting to
  • 00:02:34
    fiscal dominance of Mr Bessant while
  • 00:02:37
    watching in his [ __ ]
  • 00:02:39
    chair
  • 00:02:40
    Yeah what imagery bro I mean it's poetic
  • 00:02:44
    so poetic But yeah the whole the the
  • 00:02:46
    whole premise of this piece was around
  • 00:02:47
    the Fed submitting to the whims of
  • 00:02:49
    fiscal spending Um so do you want to
  • 00:02:52
    give us a bit of a TLDDR of why you
  • 00:02:54
    think Pal would submit himself to this
  • 00:02:57
    cuckoldry So essentially what I'm
  • 00:03:00
    arguing and I think it's backed up by
  • 00:03:02
    historical fact is that the Fed
  • 00:03:05
    chairperson likes to put out there to
  • 00:03:07
    the market that they're the head of this
  • 00:03:09
    independent organization They're tasked
  • 00:03:11
    with stewarding the strength of the
  • 00:03:14
    dollar making sure inflation is low and
  • 00:03:16
    employ un unemployment is low in the
  • 00:03:18
    United States When in reality if you
  • 00:03:20
    look at how history has actually panned
  • 00:03:22
    out the Fed is another arm of the
  • 00:03:24
    government And when called upon to do
  • 00:03:26
    their duty and help the government fund
  • 00:03:28
    itself at affordable levels they do that
  • 00:03:31
    So we go back to uh World War II The Fed
  • 00:03:34
    essentially merged with the Treasury and
  • 00:03:36
    conducted yield curve control printed
  • 00:03:38
    money to to fix the price of US
  • 00:03:40
    government bonds at 2 and a half% on the
  • 00:03:42
    long end Uh in the bid to help the US
  • 00:03:44
    government rearm itself and and fight
  • 00:03:46
    the war and make sure it was it could do
  • 00:03:48
    so affordably In the 1970s Arthur Burns
  • 00:03:51
    wrote a famous essay called the angu of
  • 00:03:52
    central banking And he basically
  • 00:03:54
    lamented how yes at any point in time
  • 00:03:57
    the head of the Fed could squaltch
  • 00:04:00
    inflation could raise the rate of
  • 00:04:02
    interest could restrict credit and
  • 00:04:04
    contract the economy in such a way that
  • 00:04:06
    inflation was van uh vanquished However
  • 00:04:09
    the government and the politicians and
  • 00:04:11
    the electorate voted for policies that
  • 00:04:13
    embed inflation into into the economy
  • 00:04:16
    and the Fed is pressured to do its duty
  • 00:04:18
    to make sure that the government can do
  • 00:04:20
    what its people want which is spend
  • 00:04:21
    money And and I had some colorful quotes
  • 00:04:24
    from that particular essay And you know
  • 00:04:26
    Greenspan had the Greenspan put in the
  • 00:04:28
    late 80s and early 90s We had Ben Berni
  • 00:04:30
    with helicopter money after the global
  • 00:04:32
    financial crisis and Janet Yellen
  • 00:04:34
    continued quantitative easing and as the
  • 00:04:36
    head of the Treasury did her own form of
  • 00:04:39
    money printing by shifting issuance to
  • 00:04:41
    the short end of the curve to drain the
  • 00:04:43
    reverse repo from September of 2022
  • 00:04:46
    until she left in uh late 2024 So all of
  • 00:04:50
    these former Fed chair people have all
  • 00:04:52
    done the same thing When there is when
  • 00:04:54
    the government needs money cheaply in
  • 00:04:56
    large quantities they provide it And so
  • 00:04:58
    Jerome Powell is doing the same thing
  • 00:05:00
    and we saw his capitulation at the
  • 00:05:03
    recent uh March FOMC press conference So
  • 00:05:06
    you know by all respects and I know
  • 00:05:08
    stocks are down a bit on the year but
  • 00:05:10
    the S&P 500 NASDAQ they're at you know
  • 00:05:13
    all-time highs People who own financial
  • 00:05:15
    assets in the United States are the
  • 00:05:17
    wealthiest that they've ever been in
  • 00:05:18
    history You have unemployment at 4% very
  • 00:05:21
    low level You have real GDP growth
  • 00:05:23
    growing at 2 to 3% for most quarters
  • 00:05:25
    postcoid This is above trend This is a
  • 00:05:27
    great economy Yet Powell felt the need
  • 00:05:29
    to say that quantitative tightening
  • 00:05:31
    which is reducing the accommodation that
  • 00:05:33
    he provided during the COVID years would
  • 00:05:35
    slow down and basically stop by midyear
  • 00:05:38
    He would tease the the start of
  • 00:05:41
    quantitative easing money printing
  • 00:05:42
    essentially to buy treasuries And you
  • 00:05:45
    know what I thought was quite hilarious
  • 00:05:47
    was he said that the inflationary impact
  • 00:05:49
    of tariffs was transitory at best and
  • 00:05:51
    therefore his easing bias is going to
  • 00:05:54
    continue even if inflation shows up in
  • 00:05:56
    the CPI metric So you know it doesn't
  • 00:05:58
    make sense that POW is having such easy
  • 00:06:01
    monetary policy or not continuing to go
  • 00:06:03
    very very hard to crush inflation
  • 00:06:05
    Inflation is still above their 2% target
  • 00:06:07
    It's on something like 3% or whatever
  • 00:06:09
    the the PCE is at right now but it's
  • 00:06:11
    above 2% It has never gotten below 2%
  • 00:06:14
    since it crossed that level in 20122 So
  • 00:06:17
    why is he stopping Why is he not
  • 00:06:18
    continuing to raise the rate of interest
  • 00:06:20
    restrict the amount of credit and really
  • 00:06:22
    destroy inflation because the US
  • 00:06:24
    government needs to fund $36 trillion of
  • 00:06:26
    debt that grows exponentially at an
  • 00:06:28
    exponential rate of interest uh payments
  • 00:06:30
    and therefore he needs to step up to the
  • 00:06:32
    plate and print the money and he's going
  • 00:06:34
    to do it And that's what he told us in
  • 00:06:35
    March and that's what basically really
  • 00:06:37
    cemented my view of being very very
  • 00:06:39
    bullish in in the medium term on crypto
  • 00:06:42
    because I believe that crypto really
  • 00:06:44
    just trades off of how many units of
  • 00:06:45
    fiat are there in the world If we have
  • 00:06:47
    the the largest fiat emitter of the
  • 00:06:49
    United States saying they're going to
  • 00:06:50
    start trading on QE you can bet that the
  • 00:06:52
    rest will follow China Japan European
  • 00:06:54
    Union etc So that's essentially you know
  • 00:06:57
    the essay in a nutshell and my
  • 00:06:58
    interpretation of that press conference
  • 00:07:00
    a few weeks ago Okay There's a few
  • 00:07:02
    questions I want to follow on there Now
  • 00:07:04
    obviously you referenced Arthur Burns
  • 00:07:07
    and in that same essay Paul Vulkar right
  • 00:07:10
    And pal says in the back of his head in
  • 00:07:12
    his head when he's sitting in the in the
  • 00:07:13
    cockold chair that he wants to be
  • 00:07:14
    remembered as the Paul Vulkar and not
  • 00:07:16
    the Arthur Burns as it relates to
  • 00:07:18
    inflation Now Arthur Burns obviously was
  • 00:07:20
    you know historically been being seen as
  • 00:07:23
    the guy who let inflation genie out of
  • 00:07:25
    the bottle in the 70s around this fiscal
  • 00:07:27
    dominance So I guess there's two
  • 00:07:29
    questions here First of all I mean one
  • 00:07:31
    of it ties into the inflation outlook
  • 00:07:32
    right So do you think it couldn't be
  • 00:07:34
    transitory Do you think Jerome really
  • 00:07:36
    believes that this that inflation
  • 00:07:38
    especially as it relates to tariffs
  • 00:07:39
    could be transitory A And then B do you
  • 00:07:42
    think if he is going to continue
  • 00:07:44
    submitting to fiscal dominance he's
  • 00:07:45
    going to eventually decide this He
  • 00:07:47
    doesn't want to be the man that's
  • 00:07:48
    remembered as the Arthur Burns and Step
  • 00:07:50
    Away Well at the end of the day Pal's
  • 00:07:52
    term is up in May of 2026 right And so I
  • 00:07:56
    think you know if we're talking about
  • 00:07:58
    you know a return to 1970s style face
  • 00:08:00
    rippingly high inflation I doubt that'll
  • 00:08:03
    be at that level by you know next year
  • 00:08:05
    this is probably a two to five year sort
  • 00:08:08
    of story as the impact of the
  • 00:08:10
    realignment of the global monetarian
  • 00:08:12
    order is you know going a pace and
  • 00:08:14
    obviously that the recent Trump tariffs
  • 00:08:16
    have accelerated that So I think Paul is
  • 00:08:19
    going to exit stage left at the pretty
  • 00:08:20
    much the opportune time and whoever
  • 00:08:22
    accepts into that chair next is going to
  • 00:08:25
    be credited with the inflationary spike
  • 00:08:27
    of you know the 2020s essentially So I
  • 00:08:30
    think Paul's going to get off quite easy
  • 00:08:32
    um historically because he's going to
  • 00:08:34
    exit right before things go bananas So
  • 00:08:36
    you do think whoever else is going to be
  • 00:08:38
    on that rotation chair um is going to be
  • 00:08:41
    credited well is going to have to face
  • 00:08:43
    this massive inflation So you think we
  • 00:08:45
    could see but I also think that that
  • 00:08:46
    person you know I think the the whispers
  • 00:08:49
    are that it's probably going to be Kevin
  • 00:08:50
    Walsh as that's the the dark horse for
  • 00:08:53
    the next Fed chairperson But he's firmly
  • 00:08:55
    in the camp of hey the Fed is a
  • 00:08:57
    political entity We are here to print
  • 00:08:59
    the money We are here to make sure that
  • 00:09:00
    the US government is reign supreme as
  • 00:09:02
    the empire We are here to make sure that
  • 00:09:04
    you know the dollar reigns supreme and
  • 00:09:06
    we're going to do whatever is necessary
  • 00:09:08
    to assist the Treasury and the the the
  • 00:09:10
    federal politicians to enact these
  • 00:09:12
    policies And so I think the next Fed Fed
  • 00:09:15
    chairperson is going to be fully on
  • 00:09:17
    board with Trump's policies and what he
  • 00:09:19
    is trying to do with how he's trying to
  • 00:09:21
    realign the the global monetary and
  • 00:09:23
    trade order So I don't think it's going
  • 00:09:25
    to be some sort of like intellectual
  • 00:09:26
    battle inside this person's head They're
  • 00:09:27
    going to be very outright being like
  • 00:09:28
    "Look I am this is what I'm here to do
  • 00:09:30
    I'm here to print the money so let's do
  • 00:09:32
    it." Instead of Paulo it's oh it's
  • 00:09:34
    transitory It's not really inflation I'm
  • 00:09:36
    I'm still really fighting that inflation
  • 00:09:37
    thing I really conquered it in 2022
  • 00:09:40
    Don't say that I was the one who you
  • 00:09:42
    know reignited inflation No no no I did
  • 00:09:44
    it I did my job I raised rates from 2022
  • 00:09:47
    to 2023 I I did it I'm I'm the man right
  • 00:09:51
    So in his mind he did exactly what he
  • 00:09:52
    should be doing And he can pull whatever
  • 00:09:54
    [ __ ] statistics he wants and you
  • 00:09:56
    know banding them about the press
  • 00:09:57
    conference talking about transitory this
  • 00:09:58
    or that and feel good about himself in
  • 00:10:00
    his own mind That's what I think is
  • 00:10:02
    going on Okay Got it Yeah Indeed Of
  • 00:10:04
    course the the Fed is a federal
  • 00:10:05
    government government employee and they
  • 00:10:06
    will submit to what Trump Trump's whims
  • 00:10:09
    anyway right So you know they've done it
  • 00:10:11
    to every other president Republican or
  • 00:10:13
    Democrat whatever you know the political
  • 00:10:15
    party is the Fed
  • 00:10:16
    always I mean yeah Fed independence is
  • 00:10:20
    like in name only right Another thing um
  • 00:10:22
    I was curious about and it was also in
  • 00:10:24
    the in the essay around the potential
  • 00:10:26
    comes back to the questions of liquidity
  • 00:10:27
    Obviously you break down um the QT and
  • 00:10:30
    how um this could potentially lead to
  • 00:10:32
    about $240 billion of net liquidity with
  • 00:10:35
    the end of QT and then potentially rise
  • 00:10:36
    into 420 billion by the end of Q3 I'm
  • 00:10:39
    curious in terms of like you've
  • 00:10:40
    mentioned obviously the SLR exemption
  • 00:10:42
    which is of course this bank ratio
  • 00:10:43
    exemption that that descent has been
  • 00:10:44
    talking about as well and do you think
  • 00:10:47
    that this could help impact on that
  • 00:10:48
    liquidity picture especially as it
  • 00:10:50
    relates to banks being the marginal
  • 00:10:51
    buyers of treasuries I think this is the
  • 00:10:53
    SLR exemption is more important than the
  • 00:10:56
    Fed doing this like match QE by selling
  • 00:10:58
    MBS and buying treasuries If the the
  • 00:11:01
    banking system is able to take over uh
  • 00:11:04
    the the load of printing the money they
  • 00:11:07
    can do it in a political in a fashion
  • 00:11:09
    that's devoid of politics because
  • 00:11:10
    they're get they're supposedly private
  • 00:11:11
    institutions and no one can point to
  • 00:11:13
    them saying they're being political
  • 00:11:14
    favorites We're a bank If we can buy a
  • 00:11:17
    treasury at whatever yield and put up no
  • 00:11:19
    capital against it it's essentially free
  • 00:11:22
    revenue So you have the treasury is
  • 00:11:23
    handing money to the banks and if rates
  • 00:11:26
    rise and you have a loss then they do
  • 00:11:27
    what they did in 2023 Oh it's a held to
  • 00:11:30
    maturity loss It's not really a loss I'm
  • 00:11:32
    just going to put it in this bucket over
  • 00:11:33
    here Don't worry And so this is great
  • 00:11:36
    for the banks This is a profit
  • 00:11:38
    generating bonanza for them if when this
  • 00:11:40
    SLR exemption comes through So they can
  • 00:11:42
    be very profitable bank stocks in the
  • 00:11:43
    United States are going to do very very
  • 00:11:45
    well if they're allowed to be very to
  • 00:11:47
    infinitely leverage their balance sheets
  • 00:11:49
    and suffer no downside because at the
  • 00:11:50
    end of the day if they [ __ ] it up the
  • 00:11:52
    Fed just prints money and hands it to
  • 00:11:54
    them Yeah Just keeping with this uh
  • 00:11:56
    topic around Fed and and liquidity I'm
  • 00:11:58
    curious a few days ago you tweeted that
  • 00:12:00
    the Fed could be forced to bail out
  • 00:12:02
    overleveraged basis hedge funds So quote
  • 00:12:05
    QE by academic standards Can you expand
  • 00:12:07
    on that So you know if we think about
  • 00:12:09
    the marginal buyers of treasuries over
  • 00:12:12
    the last two years it wasn't the
  • 00:12:14
    traditional um sovereign wealth funds
  • 00:12:15
    and central banks like the China's Saudi
  • 00:12:18
    Arabia Japan Germany etc right they are
  • 00:12:21
    on strike for various reasons you know
  • 00:12:24
    China's getting attacked by Trump and
  • 00:12:26
    America saying hey we want you not to
  • 00:12:28
    export all this stuff and earn these
  • 00:12:29
    dollars so if they don't do that then
  • 00:12:31
    they can't buy any treasuries So the
  • 00:12:33
    exporters the foreigners they're not
  • 00:12:35
    buying treasuries because they're being
  • 00:12:37
    ushered out the door um in terms of how
  • 00:12:39
    the trade flows are generated You have
  • 00:12:41
    the Fed which is doing quantitative
  • 00:12:42
    tightening So they're just allowing
  • 00:12:44
    bonds to mature on their balance sheet
  • 00:12:45
    They're not actively buying The banks
  • 00:12:48
    their balance sheets are full They can't
  • 00:12:49
    buy any more treasuries This is why they
  • 00:12:51
    need that SLR exemption And so the
  • 00:12:53
    marginal buyer of treasuries when you
  • 00:12:55
    look through the data in terms of who's
  • 00:12:57
    buying all this stuff it comes down to
  • 00:12:59
    usually Cayman Islands Luxembourg and
  • 00:13:01
    the United Kingdom which are basically
  • 00:13:03
    entities where hedge funds base
  • 00:13:05
    themselves for tax advantage reasons And
  • 00:13:08
    this is where the growth of supply or
  • 00:13:10
    ownership of treasuries is And so what
  • 00:13:12
    the trade is is a hedge fund says okay
  • 00:13:14
    there's a difference between the yield
  • 00:13:16
    on a treasury futures contract and the
  • 00:13:18
    underlying cash bond I buy the the cash
  • 00:13:21
    bond and I hedge it by selling the
  • 00:13:23
    futures contract Now this is a very very
  • 00:13:25
    slight differential in yield So the only
  • 00:13:27
    way they're going to make money that
  • 00:13:28
    moves the needle is by using leverage
  • 00:13:30
    And so what they do is they go to a bank
  • 00:13:32
    and they say "Hey I owe money to the
  • 00:13:34
    United States Treasury for this bond
  • 00:13:36
    that I that I bought in the auction Can
  • 00:13:39
    as soon as can I repo this bond to you
  • 00:13:41
    and get the cash in an atomic
  • 00:13:43
    transaction?" And the bank says "Sure."
  • 00:13:44
    And there's a charge for that There's
  • 00:13:46
    some sort of charge So as long as all
  • 00:13:47
    that nets out and they make money they
  • 00:13:49
    do this trade And this is the the basis
  • 00:13:51
    trade Now the problem is that risk
  • 00:13:53
    managers at the bank are going to say
  • 00:13:54
    "Okay I will give you a certain amount
  • 00:13:56
    of leverage based on a certain amount of
  • 00:13:58
    market volatility." If the market
  • 00:14:00
    volatility increases I want to ask for
  • 00:14:02
    more collateral from you I'm going to
  • 00:14:04
    charge you more for that collateral And
  • 00:14:05
    so at a certain point if the market
  • 00:14:07
    volatility increases and that could be
  • 00:14:08
    due to stock movements or bond movements
  • 00:14:10
    or currency movements or what have you
  • 00:14:12
    then this trade becomes uneconomical the
  • 00:14:14
    the risk management department now the
  • 00:14:16
    bank says please put up more collateral
  • 00:14:17
    The hedge fund doesn't have it and so
  • 00:14:19
    then the trade closes and now you've
  • 00:14:21
    turned this buyer of treasury just has
  • 00:14:23
    been supporting the treasury market and
  • 00:14:24
    the auctions to a seller of treasuries
  • 00:14:26
    in an illquid market that's extremely
  • 00:14:28
    volatile which is not good for how the
  • 00:14:30
    market should function And so what
  • 00:14:32
    academics uh are saying is that the Fed
  • 00:14:35
    should step in and take this trade off
  • 00:14:38
    these these hedge funds and essentially
  • 00:14:40
    do this basis trade using their balance
  • 00:14:42
    sheet which is infinite because they can
  • 00:14:43
    print as much money as they like And so
  • 00:14:46
    this is another form of stealth QE
  • 00:14:47
    because without these relative value
  • 00:14:49
    hedge funds there wouldn't be a 4%
  • 00:14:51
    treasury yield It'd be much higher
  • 00:14:53
    because where where is the where's the
  • 00:14:55
    buyer of of debt this massive amount of
  • 00:14:57
    debt at this very very low at this very
  • 00:14:59
    high price So I think this is another
  • 00:15:01
    form of stealth QE Yes technically it's
  • 00:15:03
    not quantitative easing by the textbook
  • 00:15:05
    standard which is what they'll tell you
  • 00:15:06
    in the mainstream media but this is the
  • 00:15:08
    Fed using its infinite capacity to
  • 00:15:10
    warehouse risk to take risk from an
  • 00:15:12
    entity that can that has a capacity that
  • 00:15:15
    has constrained by the banking system
  • 00:15:17
    and saying "Okay I'll I'll print enough
  • 00:15:18
    money to weather the volatility and the
  • 00:15:20
    marktom market Give me that trade." So
  • 00:15:22
    now I can continue to fund the treasury
  • 00:15:24
    Yeah interesting Never thought about it
  • 00:15:26
    like that Okay so now quickly moving on
  • 00:15:28
    Obviously um the talk and the big news
  • 00:15:31
    of the day is tariffs um and it has led
  • 00:15:34
    to massive uphill hevil in the markets
  • 00:15:38
    and uh you brought out the fact that you
  • 00:15:40
    love tariffs in a recent tweet and that
  • 00:15:42
    Trump is laser focused on those trade
  • 00:15:44
    imbalances which indeed he is given the
  • 00:15:46
    fact how they even calculated the uh
  • 00:15:48
    tariff rates and namely in that tweet
  • 00:15:51
    thread you mentioned that there will be
  • 00:15:52
    money printing and you also linked to a
  • 00:15:54
    chart that's in your most recent um
  • 00:15:56
    essay So can you expand on on that
  • 00:15:58
    thought So the global monetary order
  • 00:16:01
    doesn't work for China and the United
  • 00:16:03
    States in its current situation right
  • 00:16:05
    And so we've started and it started
  • 00:16:07
    breaking down in 2008 in the global
  • 00:16:08
    financial crisis when instead of
  • 00:16:10
    allowing the credit to extinguish the US
  • 00:16:12
    said we're just going to print a [ __ ]
  • 00:16:13
    ton of money Right That was the start of
  • 00:16:15
    the breakdown of this of this war And
  • 00:16:17
    now Trump is just accelerating it He
  • 00:16:20
    didn't cause it He didn't come up with
  • 00:16:21
    this idea out of his own mind This is
  • 00:16:23
    something that was already going to
  • 00:16:23
    happen it just might have taken a little
  • 00:16:25
    bit longer if he wasn't in office you
  • 00:16:27
    know pushing buttons And so as somebody
  • 00:16:30
    who has a portfolio of gold and a lot of
  • 00:16:33
    [ __ ] crypto what do I want I want
  • 00:16:34
    more fiat money printed That's what I'm
  • 00:16:36
    that's what my portfolio is geared And
  • 00:16:38
    so the faster that we can get to this
  • 00:16:39
    endgame and stop [ __ ] around and
  • 00:16:41
    playing with this oh no we're not going
  • 00:16:42
    to print any more money nonsense that
  • 00:16:44
    people are saying in you know various
  • 00:16:46
    central banks the faster I make more
  • 00:16:47
    money So these tariffs are great right
  • 00:16:49
    It's just forcing that was something
  • 00:16:51
    that's already going to happen and take
  • 00:16:52
    longer to happen quicker and we're
  • 00:16:54
    forcing countries to do the changes they
  • 00:16:55
    would have done anyways faster and now
  • 00:16:57
    we're seeing all this volatility in the
  • 00:16:59
    market up and down and you know which
  • 00:17:01
    ways and that's why I'm you know very
  • 00:17:03
    happy that these tariffs are happening I
  • 00:17:05
    don't have an opinion on whether they're
  • 00:17:06
    good or bad for America or China or you
  • 00:17:08
    know the world economy or whatever It
  • 00:17:10
    doesn't really matter That's not really
  • 00:17:11
    the lens that I'm looking at this
  • 00:17:13
    through It's these are super disruptive
  • 00:17:15
    It's accelerating a change that was
  • 00:17:16
    going to happen anyways And we know
  • 00:17:19
    philosophically and ideologically that
  • 00:17:21
    all major politicians in the major four
  • 00:17:24
    economic blocks United States China
  • 00:17:25
    European Union and Japan do not want to
  • 00:17:28
    do austerity cuz austerity loses US
  • 00:17:30
    elections Austerity leads to revolutions
  • 00:17:32
    Austerity means hey we spent a bunch of
  • 00:17:34
    money We didn't have it So we're going
  • 00:17:36
    to let a bunch of people go bankrupt
  • 00:17:37
    There's going to be some pain that we're
  • 00:17:39
    going to take That is not a palable
  • 00:17:40
    political strategy I know Argentina is
  • 00:17:42
    doing it right now but they had 60 years
  • 00:17:45
    of peronist money printing before they
  • 00:17:47
    got to this point where they said "Okay
  • 00:17:48
    we've tried this enough Let's try the
  • 00:17:50
    other thing austerity." The rest of the
  • 00:17:51
    world is not on that playbook The rest
  • 00:17:53
    of the world says "We're going to
  • 00:17:55
    accommodate fiscally monetarily print
  • 00:17:57
    the money and it's all going to be all
  • 00:17:59
    right." Even Trump yes he says he wants
  • 00:18:01
    to reduce waste and fraud and cut the
  • 00:18:03
    deficit but he didn't say he wants to go
  • 00:18:05
    to a surplus He wants to go from a 7%
  • 00:18:07
    deficit to a 3% deficit It's still a
  • 00:18:09
    deficit the $36 trillion of debt will
  • 00:18:12
    still expand exponentially So no one
  • 00:18:14
    globally in major economic blocks is
  • 00:18:17
    talking about doing anything other than
  • 00:18:19
    printing money and they call it
  • 00:18:20
    different names They're not talking
  • 00:18:21
    about austerity So when you have a
  • 00:18:23
    global upheaval of these tariffs which
  • 00:18:25
    is we're going to reverse the imbalances
  • 00:18:27
    that the United States and China
  • 00:18:29
    essentially have built up over the last
  • 00:18:30
    30 years what is the response The
  • 00:18:33
    response is oh there is pain to be had
  • 00:18:35
    We the government will make sure that
  • 00:18:36
    you don't experience a lot of pain
  • 00:18:38
    populace Therefore we will print some
  • 00:18:41
    money in some way shape or form And so
  • 00:18:43
    that's what I'm betting on So coming
  • 00:18:44
    back to the point you raised there
  • 00:18:45
    around uh Trump trying to target 3%
  • 00:18:48
    budget deficit and this is obviously
  • 00:18:50
    relates back to the the dominatrix in
  • 00:18:53
    your story Mr Bessent Now I'm curious to
  • 00:18:56
    get your view on because this is driving
  • 00:18:58
    it seems to be driving a lot of the
  • 00:18:59
    economic thinking around what the US is
  • 00:19:01
    trying to achieve at least in the short
  • 00:19:03
    to medium term and that's his 333 goal
  • 00:19:06
    right So are you familiar with the 333
  • 00:19:09
    strategy for best Yeah So I'm curious Do
  • 00:19:11
    you think he will be able to achieve
  • 00:19:13
    this goal or do you think it's a bit pie
  • 00:19:15
    in the sky I think it's achievable I
  • 00:19:17
    think that people are drawing the wrong
  • 00:19:19
    conclusions if they're successful I
  • 00:19:21
    think there's still going to be a lot of
  • 00:19:22
    money printed at the end of the day I
  • 00:19:23
    don't know how stocks are going to
  • 00:19:24
    perform I'm not really you know FX
  • 00:19:27
    strategist and and those sorts of things
  • 00:19:28
    I only care about will there be more
  • 00:19:30
    units of fiat in the world Yes He's
  • 00:19:32
    telling you already that it's 3% deficit
  • 00:19:34
    The deficit is still growing He did 30
  • 00:19:36
    already 36 trillion It's growing
  • 00:19:37
    exponentially The math is math right So
  • 00:19:40
    that's what he's saying he's going to do
  • 00:19:41
    If he's not successful it's worse It's
  • 00:19:43
    this is going to be worse So I mean I
  • 00:19:45
    think we already know the answer to
  • 00:19:46
    what's going to happen Okay Yeah As a
  • 00:19:48
    related traders all that matters is the
  • 00:19:49
    flow of the liquidity right How do you
  • 00:19:51
    think so Because obviously now this the
  • 00:19:54
    first sell though has been fired Um and
  • 00:19:56
    I think right now the markets are
  • 00:19:57
    falling because of the uncertainty
  • 00:19:59
    around whether countries will negotiate
  • 00:20:01
    or whether they'll retaliate and
  • 00:20:03
    obviously been the biggest one in the
  • 00:20:04
    firing line in China I'm curious to get
  • 00:20:06
    your take and you've lived lot lot of
  • 00:20:09
    your life out in Asia as well and you
  • 00:20:11
    probably know a lot more about how you
  • 00:20:12
    know the policy makers in Beijing think
  • 00:20:14
    Do you think that they would respond I
  • 00:20:16
    think that Xiinping whether he
  • 00:20:18
    personally wants to or not um a lot of
  • 00:20:21
    the very wealthy people in China want to
  • 00:20:23
    find a way to do a deal I think Trump
  • 00:20:25
    wants to find a way to do a deal with
  • 00:20:29
    China However I think that the facts on
  • 00:20:31
    the ground there cannot be a deal from a
  • 00:20:34
    fundamental perspective because what
  • 00:20:35
    does America want America wants China to
  • 00:20:38
    do the not to not do the thing that
  • 00:20:40
    raised 400 million Chinese people out of
  • 00:20:42
    poverty which is we're going to
  • 00:20:44
    massively invest in infrastructure and
  • 00:20:46
    then we're going to take that excess
  • 00:20:47
    supply and build cheap and send cheap
  • 00:20:50
    goods all over the world and take those
  • 00:20:52
    earnings and then buy financial assets
  • 00:20:53
    with them That's that was their strategy
  • 00:20:55
    That's how they lifted all these people
  • 00:20:56
    out of poverty over the last 30 to 40
  • 00:20:58
    years This is what the communist party's
  • 00:21:00
    deal is with the people We own your life
  • 00:21:03
    You have no you know freedom as it were
  • 00:21:05
    as it were in the in the western sense
  • 00:21:07
    However you have a job We will make sure
  • 00:21:09
    that you know society is well
  • 00:21:10
    functioning There will be social harmony
  • 00:21:12
    These sorts of things and the Chinese
  • 00:21:14
    people by and large are okay with that
  • 00:21:16
    sort of deal If Xiinping comes back and
  • 00:21:18
    says actually we're going to a new
  • 00:21:20
    system and you know there could there's
  • 00:21:23
    going to be a lot of job losses there's
  • 00:21:25
    going to be a lot of firms that no
  • 00:21:26
    longer exist because we're unable to run
  • 00:21:28
    this economic policy That is an
  • 00:21:30
    existential risk for the Chinese
  • 00:21:31
    Communist Party I do not see how
  • 00:21:33
    Xiinping can agree to the things that
  • 00:21:35
    Donald Trump needs him to agree on to
  • 00:21:37
    rectify this imbalance And therefore
  • 00:21:39
    ultimately I think there is no deal
  • 00:21:41
    between the United States and China on a
  • 00:21:43
    on a trade basis And Xiinping will let
  • 00:21:46
    the yuan depreciate run an independent
  • 00:21:48
    monetary policy and reflate his economy
  • 00:21:51
    That's I think what's going to happen
  • 00:21:52
    Now I don't think we're there yet I
  • 00:21:53
    think both sides are going to try to
  • 00:21:54
    find a deal and but we'll know when the
  • 00:21:57
    deal breaks down by looking at the uh
  • 00:21:59
    yuan dollar exchange rate Right now it's
  • 00:22:01
    about like 7.24 or whatever it is But
  • 00:22:04
    you know really I think we're going to
  • 00:22:06
    8910 on dollar yuan once gives the the
  • 00:22:10
    green light to let the currency
  • 00:22:12
    depreciate and he can reflate his
  • 00:22:14
    domestic economy and do what he needs to
  • 00:22:16
    do to make good on the promises that the
  • 00:22:17
    Chinese Communist Party made with the
  • 00:22:19
    people That's interesting as well
  • 00:22:20
    because that ties into my next question
  • 00:22:22
    more specifically around exchange rates
  • 00:22:24
    and the impact that's had on global
  • 00:22:26
    trade uh and specifically the imbalance
  • 00:22:28
    potentially around the US trade um with
  • 00:22:31
    China and them accusing China of being
  • 00:22:33
    currency manipulators and things like
  • 00:22:34
    that You familiar with the Mara Lago
  • 00:22:37
    accords where um the senior economic
  • 00:22:39
    adviser wants to this plan to
  • 00:22:40
    potentially bring down the value of the
  • 00:22:42
    US dollar by forcing other countries to
  • 00:22:45
    you know accept things like century
  • 00:22:47
    bonds and security guarantees and things
  • 00:22:50
    like that That's obviously the long-term
  • 00:22:51
    goal um around the strategy that's being
  • 00:22:54
    employed right now I'm curious do you
  • 00:22:56
    think that especially as it relates to
  • 00:22:58
    potentially money printing and devaluing
  • 00:23:00
    the US dollar do you think that's the
  • 00:23:01
    ultimate end goal Do you think they'll
  • 00:23:02
    achieve that I think it's un it would be
  • 00:23:05
    very difficult to achieve a lot of those
  • 00:23:07
    things because they're bilateral
  • 00:23:08
    agreements right Yeah You have to tell
  • 00:23:10
    us other politician go back to your
  • 00:23:12
    domestic people and say I'm going to
  • 00:23:14
    take a 90% haircut on these bonds that I
  • 00:23:17
    bought with your savings and then
  • 00:23:18
    they've got to get reelected or not face
  • 00:23:20
    a revolution So I think it's a very very
  • 00:23:22
    tall order for a lot of these things
  • 00:23:24
    that Moran and some other strategists
  • 00:23:27
    have proposed as to how to rebalance
  • 00:23:30
    this order But at the end of the day
  • 00:23:32
    they'll try something But and there's a
  • 00:23:34
    menu of options that different
  • 00:23:36
    strategists have put forward on how to
  • 00:23:37
    rectify these balances But if you if you
  • 00:23:39
    notice the the central theme is dollar
  • 00:23:41
    must weaken money must be printed So I
  • 00:23:44
    don't know what it's going to be how
  • 00:23:45
    it's going to to change in the details
  • 00:23:49
    but I do know that the dollar will
  • 00:23:50
    weaken and money will be printed Uh and
  • 00:23:52
    that will be the end goal How it happens
  • 00:23:54
    is you know that's that's up to you know
  • 00:23:56
    diplomats and politicians and finance
  • 00:23:58
    ministers and all that kind of stuff
  • 00:24:00
    Yeah And of course money printing is
  • 00:24:02
    good for risk assets and uh you know uh
  • 00:24:05
    so this comes back to of course other
  • 00:24:07
    projections as it relates more
  • 00:24:09
    specifically to Bitcoin And last year
  • 00:24:11
    you said that Trump's inauguration was
  • 00:24:14
    going to be a big sell the news event
  • 00:24:15
    which it seemed like it was exactly that
  • 00:24:18
    and that's exactly what happened But in
  • 00:24:20
    your most recent uh PBC piece you said
  • 00:24:22
    that if you were to place a bet on
  • 00:24:24
    whether Bitcoin would hit 76,500 or
  • 00:24:27
    110,000 first you'd put a bet on the
  • 00:24:31
    latter So you think obviously right now
  • 00:24:33
    what we know happened yesterday Do you
  • 00:24:35
    think that's still the case Going ahead
  • 00:24:37
    I think it still is the case I think
  • 00:24:39
    that Bitcoin is start is going to start
  • 00:24:41
    to look through all this tariff noise
  • 00:24:43
    and you know focus on the certainty We
  • 00:24:46
    know that money will be printed We know
  • 00:24:48
    that the Fed is on board with providing
  • 00:24:50
    the accommodation needed to make this
  • 00:24:52
    transition as palatable as possible for
  • 00:24:54
    the United States We know that China
  • 00:24:57
    eventually will let their currency
  • 00:24:58
    depreciate and flood the world and its
  • 00:25:01
    domestic economy with yuan and increase
  • 00:25:03
    the money supply growth We know that
  • 00:25:05
    Japan might retaliate by letting the BOJ
  • 00:25:08
    ramp up money printing and let the yen
  • 00:25:09
    go to 160 180 200 whatever whatever some
  • 00:25:13
    value We know that the European Union
  • 00:25:15
    especially Germany wants to build their
  • 00:25:17
    own army because you know they don't
  • 00:25:19
    have the US support like they thought
  • 00:25:20
    they did and they have this you know
  • 00:25:22
    irrational fear of a Russian invasion
  • 00:25:25
    And so they're going to justify printing
  • 00:25:26
    trillions of euros to build bombs right
  • 00:25:28
    And so all the major economic blocks are
  • 00:25:31
    going to respond to this change in their
  • 00:25:33
    own domestic way by printing money And I
  • 00:25:36
    think slowly Bitcoin is going to start
  • 00:25:38
    decoupling from the NASDAQ 100 and S&P
  • 00:25:41
    500 which has been pretty tied to you
  • 00:25:43
    know in the recent you know few quarters
  • 00:25:45
    or years And it's going to focus more on
  • 00:25:48
    what's coming out of these finance
  • 00:25:49
    ministers mouths and these politicians
  • 00:25:50
    mouths about their plans for how they're
  • 00:25:53
    going to create money growth and reflate
  • 00:25:55
    their economies in nominal terms So I
  • 00:25:58
    think that the NASDAQ is you know a
  • 00:26:00
    secular cell just because US
  • 00:26:03
    exceptionalism especially in the tech
  • 00:26:04
    basis is going to decline and foreigners
  • 00:26:06
    are going to be repatriating selling
  • 00:26:08
    what they can to fund the programs
  • 00:26:10
    domestically that they need to fund and
  • 00:26:11
    so I mean I don't think stocks are going
  • 00:26:13
    to do very well on in the US sense I
  • 00:26:16
    think Bitcoin decouples from this you
  • 00:26:18
    know it's just a proxy for the NASDAQ
  • 00:26:20
    100 with higher beta narrative very very
  • 00:26:22
    quickly which is why I think 76500 is is
  • 00:26:25
    going to hold or might not even be
  • 00:26:27
    retested And shortly as the market says
  • 00:26:29
    "Oh okay What happens when the world
  • 00:26:31
    order changes?" The politicians print
  • 00:26:33
    the money And so therefore Bitcoin
  • 00:26:35
    starts to outperform starts to look more
  • 00:26:37
    like gold um which is you know trading
  • 00:26:40
    very well into this global monetary
  • 00:26:43
    order change phenomenon Yeah it's quite
  • 00:26:45
    fascinating because right now Bitcoin's
  • 00:26:47
    at about 84,400 the moment we record
  • 00:26:49
    this interview And in the traditional
  • 00:26:51
    financial markets you know we had the
  • 00:26:53
    biggest fall on Wall Street yesterday
  • 00:26:55
    since 2020 If I recall the NIK A was
  • 00:26:58
    down by 3% today Futures are down as
  • 00:27:00
    well So it's Do you think that this is
  • 00:27:02
    potentially we're already starting to
  • 00:27:03
    see a bit of this decoupling right now
  • 00:27:06
    at least in this very short period of
  • 00:27:07
    time I don't know about that I I still
  • 00:27:10
    think there's some more pain to be had
  • 00:27:12
    So right we've had the initial reaction
  • 00:27:14
    Now we get the hope oh there's going to
  • 00:27:15
    be negotiations right you know if I look
  • 00:27:17
    on my Bloomberg you know top go sort of
  • 00:27:20
    it's like oh XYZ country is open to
  • 00:27:22
    negotiating Trump says yeah if you give
  • 00:27:24
    me a great offer I'm willing to
  • 00:27:25
    negotiate So we're going to have these
  • 00:27:27
    headlines probably over the next few
  • 00:27:29
    weeks of people trying to make a deal
  • 00:27:31
    Right And then slowly it's going to
  • 00:27:32
    realize that people are like Trump ain't
  • 00:27:34
    playing He really is about fixing that
  • 00:27:37
    imbalance in that chart And you
  • 00:27:39
    domestically as a politician to do the
  • 00:27:41
    things Trump wants you to do you will
  • 00:27:42
    not be in office in the next 2 to 5
  • 00:27:44
    years people will vote you out or
  • 00:27:45
    there'll be a revolution And so you
  • 00:27:47
    can't agree to the things he needs you
  • 00:27:48
    to agree to because it's just not
  • 00:27:50
    politically palatable And so I think
  • 00:27:52
    it's going to take a little bit of time
  • 00:27:53
    for that to that message to get through
  • 00:27:56
    It's also going to take a little bit of
  • 00:27:57
    time for people to rerate their
  • 00:27:59
    valuation multiples on US stocks right
  • 00:28:02
    So I think we're going to get a great
  • 00:28:03
    relief rally as people hope that
  • 00:28:05
    something uh other than what has been
  • 00:28:07
    advertised will happen And then as
  • 00:28:09
    people start to realize okay well if
  • 00:28:10
    there's not foreigners buying all these
  • 00:28:12
    stocks why am I paying you know 40 times
  • 00:28:14
    PE for these companies if you know
  • 00:28:17
    Chinese tech has surmounted the
  • 00:28:19
    semiconductor ban has built you know
  • 00:28:22
    cutting edge AI models Deep Seek um
  • 00:28:26
    there's some other agentic AI uh really
  • 00:28:28
    cool things that are coming out of China
  • 00:28:29
    as well Do I really want to pay like for
  • 00:28:32
    this capex buildout of Microsoft and
  • 00:28:35
    Google and all these companies I don't
  • 00:28:37
    know They're still great companies They
  • 00:28:39
    still make money but I don't know if I
  • 00:28:40
    really want to pay 30 40 50 times uh
  • 00:28:43
    12-month forward earnings for these
  • 00:28:45
    things And so I think that's going to
  • 00:28:46
    take time as well And I still don't
  • 00:28:48
    think that we've broken this narrative
  • 00:28:49
    that Bitcoin's just high beta NASDAQ And
  • 00:28:52
    and so it's going to trade pretty in
  • 00:28:54
    line with the stock market for a bit And
  • 00:28:56
    fully as people start to realize and
  • 00:28:57
    start to see what the central bankers
  • 00:28:59
    and the finance companies are actually
  • 00:29:00
    doing preparing for this change then we
  • 00:29:03
    start to to decouple So I don't think
  • 00:29:05
    that we're out of the woods yet in terms
  • 00:29:06
    of you know Bitcoin just following the
  • 00:29:08
    the stock market Um I I do think we're
  • 00:29:11
    going to you know go back to close to
  • 00:29:13
    80,000 Maybe we break it down to the the
  • 00:29:15
    70,000s again but yeah we're not out of
  • 00:29:17
    the woods yet Okay Short term Well I
  • 00:29:19
    mean indeed we're going into a weekend
  • 00:29:20
    and you know Bitcoin is one of the few
  • 00:29:22
    risk assets that you can trade on a
  • 00:29:23
    weekend Exactly So imagine all the
  • 00:29:25
    headlines are going to come out by ex
  • 00:29:27
    you know oh I saw so and so going to
  • 00:29:28
    Mara Lago on their private plane It must
  • 00:29:30
    mean they're going to make a deal Yeah
  • 00:29:31
    Exactly
  • 00:29:34
    Yeah it's the only way that they can
  • 00:29:36
    take a proxy bet on the on the risk
  • 00:29:37
    assets over the weekend and then Trump
  • 00:29:40
    comes out and tweets something on Sunday
  • 00:29:41
    evening that completely Exactly And
  • 00:29:44
    another thing coming back to I don't
  • 00:29:45
    know if it was in the most recent piece
  • 00:29:46
    or one of your pre pieces prior to that
  • 00:29:48
    but you said that if we break through
  • 00:29:50
    the 110K level uh then we could easily
  • 00:29:52
    go to 250k uh this year So based on the
  • 00:29:56
    current backdrop is that still on the
  • 00:29:58
    cards Absolutely Conditionally Yeah I I
  • 00:30:00
    think the liquidity is going to be there
  • 00:30:02
    especially by the end of the year If you
  • 00:30:03
    think about the United States you know
  • 00:30:05
    the Republic Republicans have an
  • 00:30:06
    election to win in 2026 to keep their
  • 00:30:08
    majorities in the House and the Senate
  • 00:30:10
    We know that Trump is already concerned
  • 00:30:12
    about his thin majorities in the two
  • 00:30:14
    houses um I forgot the name of the
  • 00:30:16
    person but there there's an appointment
  • 00:30:17
    to some cabinet level position of a
  • 00:30:19
    sitting congress person and Trump
  • 00:30:21
    rescended that that nomination because
  • 00:30:24
    he wants that person to stay in their
  • 00:30:25
    seat because there these seats are being
  • 00:30:27
    hotly contested in these special
  • 00:30:29
    elections going on in the United States
  • 00:30:31
    and he want to make he wants to make
  • 00:30:32
    sure that he has the majority he needs
  • 00:30:34
    to push through his policies So there is
  • 00:30:36
    push back already politically in the
  • 00:30:38
    United States and the Republicans are
  • 00:30:40
    going to face a stiff challenge in 2026
  • 00:30:43
    So yes Trump's frontloading the pain now
  • 00:30:46
    I think by the end of the year it's
  • 00:30:47
    going to be a completely different tone
  • 00:30:49
    It's going to be look at all these
  • 00:30:50
    factories that have you know pledged to
  • 00:30:52
    do this that and the other thing over
  • 00:30:54
    the next you know 2 to 5 years Look at
  • 00:30:56
    the the the rebound in inward foreign
  • 00:30:59
    direct investment into United States
  • 00:31:01
    Look at the rebound in the stock market
  • 00:31:03
    Now it could be that the S&P is trading
  • 00:31:05
    on a four handle but and it goes uh you
  • 00:31:07
    know 4,200 and it's up you know and over
  • 00:31:09
    that little time period But the the the
  • 00:31:12
    narrative is going to shift to look at
  • 00:31:14
    how we're rebuilding the American
  • 00:31:16
    economy for you the average American
  • 00:31:18
    voter not look at how we're attacking
  • 00:31:21
    all these foreigners who've taken
  • 00:31:22
    advantage of us over the last 30 years
  • 00:31:24
    And so when that narrative shifts it's
  • 00:31:26
    going to shift with money being printed
  • 00:31:28
    behind it And I think that's what's
  • 00:31:29
    really going to reflate the world And
  • 00:31:31
    obviously you have other countries
  • 00:31:32
    around the world as well who are going
  • 00:31:34
    to follow the United States in reflating
  • 00:31:35
    their own domestic economies Just
  • 00:31:37
    keeping with Bitcoin and Trump um a bit
  • 00:31:40
    more uh when it comes to I'm keen to get
  • 00:31:42
    your thoughts on the Bitcoin reserve
  • 00:31:44
    Right So it seems that market
  • 00:31:46
    expectations got ran away with
  • 00:31:48
    themselves a bit hotly before the actual
  • 00:31:50
    announcement thinking that they was
  • 00:31:52
    going to go out there and um potentially
  • 00:31:54
    buy all this Bitcoin whereas it's been
  • 00:31:56
    now just simply going to be we're going
  • 00:31:58
    to hold the Bitcoin we have So I'm
  • 00:32:00
    curious is to and you've mentioned this
  • 00:32:02
    I think in your most recent piece as
  • 00:32:03
    well the Llama proposal um to
  • 00:32:05
    potentially revalue gold um and then use
  • 00:32:08
    this to as a budget neutral method to
  • 00:32:11
    potentially uh purchase more Bitcoin Uh
  • 00:32:13
    do do you think that's realistic I am
  • 00:32:15
    still skeptical that I think they will
  • 00:32:18
    revalue gold Like I think that's that
  • 00:32:20
    that's going to happen I have a high
  • 00:32:21
    high likelihood Questionable whether
  • 00:32:23
    they take some of that money and they go
  • 00:32:24
    and they buy Bitcoin I only say that
  • 00:32:26
    because this is the political optics of
  • 00:32:28
    it aren't the best Trump is supposedly
  • 00:32:31
    the every man and woman president the
  • 00:32:34
    person who doesn't own a lot of
  • 00:32:35
    financial assets Yes he has a very you
  • 00:32:37
    know vocal and wealthy crypto cohort
  • 00:32:39
    that has supported him in the last
  • 00:32:41
    election but if you think about his true
  • 00:32:42
    base it's people without a university
  • 00:32:44
    education who make less than $100,000 a
  • 00:32:46
    year who've gotten harmed by the
  • 00:32:48
    globalization and offshoring of the
  • 00:32:50
    manufacturing base over the last 30 to
  • 00:32:51
    50 years Is the message do you want to
  • 00:32:53
    send that you're going to print money or
  • 00:32:56
    create money by devaluing the dollar
  • 00:32:58
    versus gold and handing it to Bitcoin
  • 00:32:59
    Bros I'm not sure that that's the most
  • 00:33:01
    palatable political message That's just
  • 00:33:03
    me If I was a politician running for
  • 00:33:05
    election I'm not sure that would be my
  • 00:33:08
    my strategy Now I just read a report
  • 00:33:11
    from a strategist that this um the Lumis
  • 00:33:14
    bill the revaluation of gold and buying
  • 00:33:16
    some Bitcoin with it seems to be gaining
  • 00:33:18
    traction amongst people it needs to gain
  • 00:33:20
    traction with in uh in the House of
  • 00:33:22
    Representatives I mean I can't really
  • 00:33:24
    handicap whether that's you know just
  • 00:33:25
    rumor or not but again it's on the table
  • 00:33:28
    I am of the opinion that they won't be
  • 00:33:30
    buying Bitcoin with that revalued those
  • 00:33:32
    dollars they create by revaluing gold
  • 00:33:34
    But I do see other people saying that
  • 00:33:37
    this is gaining steam in the circles
  • 00:33:39
    that it needs needs to gain um
  • 00:33:41
    credibility in Yeah Do you think any
  • 00:33:43
    other countries because this is also one
  • 00:33:44
    of the theories going into Trump's
  • 00:33:46
    announcement of the strategic reserve
  • 00:33:48
    and this geopolitical brinkmanship or
  • 00:33:50
    rush 21st century gold rush for Bitcoin
  • 00:33:53
    by nation states Do you think any other
  • 00:33:55
    countries could follow in this in the
  • 00:33:56
    footsteps of the US in terms of any sort
  • 00:33:59
    of reserve of any description for
  • 00:34:00
    Bitcoin So I think people are missing
  • 00:34:02
    the obvious one which is mining right So
  • 00:34:05
    China local governments mine Bitcoin
  • 00:34:07
    They have been mining Bitcoin for a very
  • 00:34:08
    very long time They probably have
  • 00:34:10
    hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin You
  • 00:34:12
    know they're not going to tell you about
  • 00:34:13
    it but we know that they about 20% of
  • 00:34:15
    the hash rate in China and supposedly
  • 00:34:17
    Bitcoin mining is banned So we can
  • 00:34:18
    assume the local governments in China
  • 00:34:20
    are mining Bitcoin and that is probably
  • 00:34:22
    part of their national stockpile We know
  • 00:34:24
    that some of the large Middle Eastern
  • 00:34:26
    oil exporters are using some of the
  • 00:34:28
    excess energy and starting up mining
  • 00:34:30
    operations to mine Bitcoin So I don't
  • 00:34:33
    think that countries are going to print
  • 00:34:35
    money and buy Bitcoin Do I think that
  • 00:34:37
    countries who have energy surpluses are
  • 00:34:39
    going to use some of that and save it in
  • 00:34:41
    the form of Bitcoin Absolutely And we've
  • 00:34:43
    already seen that seen that happening So
  • 00:34:45
    I think we just have to adjust our
  • 00:34:46
    expectations about what we mean by a
  • 00:34:48
    Bitcoin strategic reserve and how it's
  • 00:34:49
    funded I just don't think it's
  • 00:34:51
    politically palatable to outright print
  • 00:34:53
    money and buy Bitcoin Yes you can save
  • 00:34:55
    it save it using energy surpluses or you
  • 00:34:58
    have a state sponsored mining capacity
  • 00:35:01
    because you have very very cheap
  • 00:35:02
    electricity and that's already happening
  • 00:35:04
    and will continue to happen So I think
  • 00:35:06
    it comes through the mining aspect not
  • 00:35:08
    through the money printing aspect Got it
  • 00:35:10
    Okay So that's Bitcoin Um and I think
  • 00:35:13
    that for the most of us who've held
  • 00:35:14
    Bitcoin we've held up quite a bit over
  • 00:35:16
    the past few months Um and indeed unfort
  • 00:35:19
    but unfortunately for those who have
  • 00:35:21
    been an altcoin heavy
  • 00:35:24
    portfolio that's what's been driving a
  • 00:35:26
    lot of the sentiments I'm sure you've
  • 00:35:28
    seen a lot of the negative sentiment
  • 00:35:29
    around well in crypto crypto Twitter in
  • 00:35:31
    general because of the altcoin being
  • 00:35:34
    decimated especially as it relates to
  • 00:35:36
    Bitcoin versus Bitcoin So um my question
  • 00:35:39
    is what's your view on alt right now Is
  • 00:35:43
    alt season dead So I mean if I look
  • 00:35:46
    looking at my charts right now uh you
  • 00:35:47
    know Bitcoin dominance continues to rise
  • 00:35:49
    It's something like 60 62% or something
  • 00:35:52
    like that I think it continues maybe go
  • 00:35:54
    touches 70% something like that
  • 00:35:56
    Ultimately I think there just not a lot
  • 00:35:58
    of exciting projects out there So what
  • 00:36:00
    really what did well in this last cycle
  • 00:36:03
    2022 to 2024 We had Athena obviously
  • 00:36:07
    this breakout synthetic dollar uh stable
  • 00:36:09
    coin product We had liquid restaking in
  • 00:36:11
    the ETH e um ecosystem Etherfien layer
  • 00:36:15
    those sorts of projects and but we
  • 00:36:17
    haven't really seen a lot of other like
  • 00:36:20
    new things in the cycle and then we had
  • 00:36:21
    memecoins right so we had this sort of
  • 00:36:24
    aversion to these highly priced projects
  • 00:36:27
    emanating out of these you know VC
  • 00:36:29
    funded things and we went to memecoins
  • 00:36:31
    because people felt that they didn't
  • 00:36:32
    have a chance to actually generate any
  • 00:36:34
    real wealth obviously as it was
  • 00:36:36
    advertised in the tin 99.99% of meme
  • 00:36:39
    coins never made it above something like
  • 00:36:41
    hund00 million market cap they're
  • 00:36:42
    completely worthless And you know we're
  • 00:36:44
    seeing trading volumes drop off a cliff
  • 00:36:46
    and pump fund And that is to be expected
  • 00:36:48
    Everybody knew this was going to happen
  • 00:36:50
    But at the end of the day there's a lot
  • 00:36:51
    of capital that's just been essentially
  • 00:36:53
    handed over to trading firms and you
  • 00:36:56
    know pump fund type operations and
  • 00:36:58
    didn't go into the the altcoin space And
  • 00:37:00
    so I think that that is why we have had
  • 00:37:03
    such a tepid you know alt season if you
  • 00:37:05
    want to want to call it that And I'm not
  • 00:37:07
    seeing that change in the near future I
  • 00:37:10
    think what's going to happen is Bitcoin
  • 00:37:11
    dominance will continue to rise At some
  • 00:37:13
    point let's say Bitcoin over 110,000
  • 00:37:15
    people get the itch to buy altcoins and
  • 00:37:17
    they're going to look for project with
  • 00:37:19
    revenues with users And that's very very
  • 00:37:22
    few projects You probably could you know
  • 00:37:23
    probably less than 100 or 50 projects
  • 00:37:26
    have those sorts of number real numbers
  • 00:37:29
    in size to justify you buying these
  • 00:37:31
    things But they're going to be very very
  • 00:37:33
    cheap because they've been so unloved
  • 00:37:34
    for so long So I think you know when I
  • 00:37:37
    put on my Maelstrom CIO hat for the
  • 00:37:39
    liquid part of our portfolio that's what
  • 00:37:41
    we're really going to be focusing on
  • 00:37:42
    because you know founders are still
  • 00:37:44
    pricing their preede rounds too
  • 00:37:46
    expensive for us We're not going to
  • 00:37:48
    participate in those things However
  • 00:37:50
    quality things that have you know proven
  • 00:37:53
    that they have Lindy that they have they
  • 00:37:55
    can withstand market turmoil that they
  • 00:37:57
    can they have monthly active users they
  • 00:37:59
    have revenue positive profitability at
  • 00:38:02
    the protocol level However their token
  • 00:38:04
    prices have gotten completely decimated
  • 00:38:06
    I want to be in that because I think
  • 00:38:07
    that is the the segment of the market
  • 00:38:10
    that will attract both institutional and
  • 00:38:12
    retail capital when we get the the next
  • 00:38:15
    alt season and that's what we're we're
  • 00:38:17
    going to fall in love with again as
  • 00:38:20
    crypto investors Okay just a few things
  • 00:38:21
    to follow on there I think my first
  • 00:38:23
    question is okay as it relates to alt
  • 00:38:25
    season in general Um obviously alt
  • 00:38:27
    season is generally understood to be the
  • 00:38:28
    when Bitcoin dominance falls and alts in
  • 00:38:30
    general as a collective rise In relation
  • 00:38:32
    to that um and the the most recent one
  • 00:38:35
    obviously is the 2021 alt season where
  • 00:38:37
    you know you had this all amounts of
  • 00:38:39
    altcoins just rallying potentially out
  • 00:38:42
    of out of liquidity that came from the
  • 00:38:44
    stem checks in um around the pandemic So
  • 00:38:47
    do you think then that we could go to a
  • 00:38:49
    stage let's say when this liquidity
  • 00:38:50
    comes Do you think that obviously you
  • 00:38:52
    mentioned that quality projects are they
  • 00:38:54
    have to be quality projects and they
  • 00:38:56
    have to be well priced and that's true
  • 00:38:58
    So do you think then if we do get this
  • 00:38:59
    liquidity and if let's say Bitcoin does
  • 00:39:01
    break 110K and there is this rotation
  • 00:39:03
    into alts that we could see Bitcoin
  • 00:39:06
    dominance start to fall or is it just
  • 00:39:08
    going to be a few select alts like you
  • 00:39:10
    mentioned that have value that are going
  • 00:39:11
    to you know send while the rest of the
  • 00:39:13
    altcoin sector which is still highly uh
  • 00:39:16
    still doesn't have product market fit
  • 00:39:18
    and are overvalued is just going to
  • 00:39:19
    languish So what sort of altcoin season
  • 00:39:21
    of any or indeed an alcoin season more
  • 00:39:23
    broadly in terms of Bitcoin dominance do
  • 00:39:25
    you think we're going to see if we do
  • 00:39:27
    get the break of 110K and if we do start
  • 00:39:29
    seeing liquidity coming back into the
  • 00:39:31
    crypto space Yes If it's already a coin
  • 00:39:32
    that's listed I think already listed
  • 00:39:34
    coins are going to have to have product
  • 00:39:36
    market fit clients and protocol
  • 00:39:38
    profitability Those will be the things
  • 00:39:40
    that people buy There will be a new new
  • 00:39:42
    thing I don't know what that's going to
  • 00:39:43
    be uh this next this next go around And
  • 00:39:46
    of course people will be selling Bitcoin
  • 00:39:48
    to buy the new new thing the new new
  • 00:39:49
    unproven shiny toy that all the traders
  • 00:39:52
    want to trade Whatever that narrative is
  • 00:39:54
    I don't know what it's going to be We'll
  • 00:39:55
    have one There'll be unprofitable hype
  • 00:39:58
    you know smoking mirrors dreams all that
  • 00:40:01
    kind of stuff right We'll do it all
  • 00:40:02
    again in a different narrative again I
  • 00:40:04
    don't know what it's going to be And
  • 00:40:05
    Bitcoin dominance will fall But if you
  • 00:40:07
    have a token that's already listed and
  • 00:40:09
    you haven't been able to get any clients
  • 00:40:10
    and you have no profitability and you
  • 00:40:12
    have no revenue I think you're in
  • 00:40:13
    serious trouble So that's that's a lot
  • 00:40:15
    of projects right now man Yeah there's a
  • 00:40:17
    lot of layer ones and a lot of projects
  • 00:40:19
    out there are probably in the same
  • 00:40:20
    bucket So that's interesting Coming to
  • 00:40:22
    um one of your comments around potential
  • 00:40:24
    projects that there's not really strong
  • 00:40:26
    product market fit now and I'm curious
  • 00:40:27
    because you obviously have thoughts on
  • 00:40:29
    this as well and you've been tweeting
  • 00:40:30
    about it last week and that's um one of
  • 00:40:33
    the breakouts in the past few months has
  • 00:40:34
    been hyperlquid of course and they've
  • 00:40:36
    had pretty good product market fit right
  • 00:40:38
    in terms of absolutely traders who
  • 00:40:40
    wanted to trade on it and all of that So
  • 00:40:42
    obviously firstly I'm keen to get your
  • 00:40:43
    thoughts on Hyperlquid more broadly and
  • 00:40:45
    then more specifically as it relates to
  • 00:40:47
    the recent fiasco with the jelly jelly
  • 00:40:50
    mark manipulation whatever I mean don't
  • 00:40:54
    know the reference then please go and
  • 00:40:56
    they can dy I mean yeah I'm super
  • 00:40:59
    bullish on hyperlquid I think what what
  • 00:41:01
    is crypto it's rampid speculation and
  • 00:41:03
    like some stable coin [ __ ] right I'm
  • 00:41:05
    cribbing some other people who uh this
  • 00:41:08
    barbell of crypto alt alt projects So
  • 00:41:11
    obviously I made all my money in the
  • 00:41:13
    exchange space That's no secret You know
  • 00:41:15
    the richest person in crypto CZ is an
  • 00:41:18
    exchange owner You think about any all
  • 00:41:20
    the large family offices or private
  • 00:41:22
    crypto money all comes essentially
  • 00:41:23
    either exchanges or miners at the end of
  • 00:41:25
    the day And so if you have uh a new
  • 00:41:28
    exchange model I it's not a new model
  • 00:41:30
    but a very wellexecuted supposedly
  • 00:41:32
    decentralized exchange You can co about
  • 00:41:34
    whether that's whether that's true or
  • 00:41:36
    not but doesn't matter The narrative is
  • 00:41:37
    it's a DEX It's been able to go from
  • 00:41:39
    zero to like 10 to 20% of Binance's
  • 00:41:42
    volume on futures contracts and and per
  • 00:41:44
    in the span of 12 to 18 months Very very
  • 00:41:46
    impressive right And people are using uh
  • 00:41:49
    using Hyperlquid The Hype token didn't
  • 00:41:52
    have any VC backing They used the token
  • 00:41:54
    very intelligently to incentivize
  • 00:41:56
    traders to come on board The people who
  • 00:41:58
    held the hype token have made a lot of
  • 00:42:00
    money um from the I think TGE to like
  • 00:42:03
    six or seven months ago at $3 Now it's
  • 00:42:05
    at 12 or 13 whatever it is went up to 30
  • 00:42:07
    So I think it's it's going to do very
  • 00:42:10
    very well in in this next cycle and
  • 00:42:12
    especially if it continues to eat the
  • 00:42:14
    lunch of you know Binance and the other
  • 00:42:16
    large centralized exchanges which leads
  • 00:42:18
    obviously to the the jelly fiasco which
  • 00:42:21
    in my mind is you know all us
  • 00:42:23
    centralized exchange owners who've built
  • 00:42:25
    these futures and derivatives platforms
  • 00:42:26
    have encountered all the same issues
  • 00:42:28
    that Hyperlid is facing today My message
  • 00:42:30
    to the developers is just read the
  • 00:42:32
    manuals on all the exchanges Everything
  • 00:42:33
    that you need to do is right there We've
  • 00:42:35
    all we've we've dealt with all these
  • 00:42:36
    problems on on our platforms We've
  • 00:42:38
    documented how to do it and we have
  • 00:42:40
    policies in place to mitigate these
  • 00:42:41
    things So they need to read the [ __ ]
  • 00:42:43
    manual and fix their [ __ ] at the end of
  • 00:42:45
    the day That's fair I guess the heart of
  • 00:42:48
    the issue here as and in terms of what
  • 00:42:50
    they did in order to rectify it What's
  • 00:42:52
    caused a lot of the fiasco was the fact
  • 00:42:54
    that they potentially chose an oracle
  • 00:42:56
    price a settlement price that was below
  • 00:42:57
    the entry price and as a result HLP
  • 00:43:00
    actually ended up in a profit So I mean
  • 00:43:02
    obviously yes they made they made
  • 00:43:03
    changes in terms of limits and the
  • 00:43:05
    things that would prevent this kind of
  • 00:43:06
    thing happening again but do you think
  • 00:43:08
    their decision to roll back the trade to
  • 00:43:11
    prior oracle price that wasn't the
  • 00:43:12
    actual market price is a precedent a
  • 00:43:15
    dangerous precedent that was set or do
  • 00:43:16
    you think it was a matter of um they
  • 00:43:19
    were faced with the situation they had
  • 00:43:20
    at hand they didn't want the HLP vault
  • 00:43:23
    contributors to lose funds I mean do you
  • 00:43:25
    think that I don't know I I don't know
  • 00:43:27
    the financials of hyperlquid so I think
  • 00:43:30
    the as I the little bit that I read
  • 00:43:32
    about it the loss is something like I
  • 00:43:33
    don't know 15 million US something
  • 00:43:35
    around there to the HLP if they had kept
  • 00:43:37
    the the real market price of of jelly So
  • 00:43:39
    then the decision matrix is okay well if
  • 00:43:42
    I do this centralized kind of fugazy
  • 00:43:45
    operation you know I could erode trust
  • 00:43:48
    in this core tenant of I'm I'm a
  • 00:43:50
    decentralized exchange okay but on the
  • 00:43:52
    other side is can I afford a
  • 00:43:54
    centralization is there $15 million
  • 00:43:56
    where I can make HL HLP whole or would
  • 00:43:59
    this be a you know extinction level
  • 00:44:01
    event for my business or my protocol if
  • 00:44:04
    I allowed the free market to operate
  • 00:44:06
    again I don't know what that how those
  • 00:44:08
    numbers looked internally But if you're
  • 00:44:11
    saying this is an extinction level event
  • 00:44:12
    [ __ ] it You do what they did and then
  • 00:44:14
    you suffer the consequences later But at
  • 00:44:15
    least HLP holders know that they have a
  • 00:44:18
    heads I win tails I lose situation
  • 00:44:20
    They're going to continue to fund into
  • 00:44:21
    the HLP and stake their capital and
  • 00:44:24
    increase liquidity on the platform users
  • 00:44:26
    know that the protocol is going to
  • 00:44:28
    operate in the interests of honest
  • 00:44:30
    traders um that they that they believe
  • 00:44:33
    are honest traders and are going to
  • 00:44:35
    operate not in the interest of people
  • 00:44:36
    they believe are adversarial right And
  • 00:44:39
    so I think at the end of the day traders
  • 00:44:41
    don't give a [ __ ] about decentralization
  • 00:44:42
    They care about making money And so if
  • 00:44:44
    you said "I'm going to make sure you
  • 00:44:45
    make money or you're safe." Okay I'm
  • 00:44:46
    going to trade on your protocol All
  • 00:44:48
    these philosophical you know moral
  • 00:44:50
    hazard adverse election stuff doesn't
  • 00:44:53
    [ __ ] matter As long as I make money I
  • 00:44:55
    can wax philosophical when I'm rich as
  • 00:44:57
    [ __ ] I think that's how traders that's
  • 00:44:59
    how traders do it Wax philosophical when
  • 00:45:00
    you're rich as [ __ ] mate That's uh you
  • 00:45:04
    got a lot of time to think about it You
  • 00:45:05
    don't have to worry about making money
  • 00:45:06
    You got the money You can just sit there
  • 00:45:07
    and ponder about the philos the
  • 00:45:08
    philosophy of um decentralization It's
  • 00:45:11
    actually interesting because um you know
  • 00:45:13
    the thoughts around they potentially um
  • 00:45:16
    if they had potentially not bailed
  • 00:45:18
    themselves and not chosen this Oracle
  • 00:45:19
    place would have created also a
  • 00:45:21
    precedent in the sense that they would
  • 00:45:22
    see many people who would consider
  • 00:45:24
    exploiting the protocol itself may think
  • 00:45:26
    oh okay well the hyperlquid team wasn't
  • 00:45:29
    going to go and step in and they would
  • 00:45:30
    they're going to accept uh even if it
  • 00:45:32
    was an adverse trade for them and it's a
  • 00:45:34
    good opportunity to exploit it to go
  • 00:45:35
    again and again So potentially they've
  • 00:45:36
    also set the precedence put their foot
  • 00:45:38
    down saying if you misuse the protocol
  • 00:45:41
    well we're going to adjust the price as
  • 00:45:42
    we see fit you know So it's interesting
  • 00:45:45
    So going back to other two really big um
  • 00:45:46
    altcoins in the space right now Um a few
  • 00:45:50
    weeks ago you had a tweet that said um
  • 00:45:52
    you think that ETH will hit 5K before
  • 00:45:55
    Soul hits 300 Now my my question to you
  • 00:45:58
    was that engagement bait or do you
  • 00:46:00
    actually believe that If I so like the
  • 00:46:03
    way I'd couch this answer is if I had a
  • 00:46:05
    fresh unit of fiat and I had to decide
  • 00:46:07
    if I'm gonna buy Ethereum or Salana I
  • 00:46:10
    would buy ETH Why Because when the cycle
  • 00:46:13
    turns I want to own the most hated thing
  • 00:46:15
    I don't want to own the most loved thing
  • 00:46:16
    of the previous cycle That's what
  • 00:46:18
    outperforms And so all I care about is
  • 00:46:20
    outperformance People hate ETH Oh it's
  • 00:46:23
    this that and the other thing But at the
  • 00:46:24
    end of the day ETH is the most secure
  • 00:46:26
    layer 1 blockchain by value staked It
  • 00:46:29
    has the largest developer ecosystem
  • 00:46:32
    Every single major D5 primitive started
  • 00:46:35
    on ETH As an investor and I you know we
  • 00:46:37
    see lots of projects the most exciting
  • 00:46:39
    things and the most innovative people
  • 00:46:40
    are still building on Ethereum Yes
  • 00:46:43
    there's a lot of Salana developers and
  • 00:46:45
    obviously Aptos and other ecosystems but
  • 00:46:47
    if you want to talk about the OG it's
  • 00:46:49
    Ethereum But people are hating on it for
  • 00:46:51
    the tokconomics and all the the layer 2
  • 00:46:53
    vampires and all the all the things You
  • 00:46:55
    know there's some valid concerns there
  • 00:46:56
    But again if I'm talking about a cycle
  • 00:46:58
    turning I have a fresh unit of fiat I
  • 00:47:01
    want to own what has hated in the past
  • 00:47:02
    cycle not what was loved So that's why I
  • 00:47:05
    think you know ETH can retake its
  • 00:47:07
    all-time high before Solana can in this
  • 00:47:09
    next runup And all it takes is you know
  • 00:47:12
    some green candles on ETH and all of a
  • 00:47:14
    sudden all those concerns that people
  • 00:47:15
    waxed philosophical about on uh on
  • 00:47:17
    crypto Twitter go away and they're all
  • 00:47:20
    of a sudden they're ETH bulls Oh my god
  • 00:47:21
    Ethos Ethereum is the most And they're
  • 00:47:22
    just going to they're going to p Oh no
  • 00:47:24
    they have the most developers Oh there's
  • 00:47:26
    the biggest you know they're the most
  • 00:47:27
    secure block the most decentralized east
  • 00:47:30
    will come back on on the Twitter and
  • 00:47:31
    account again You know the east will
  • 00:47:33
    come back They'll come back They'll feel
  • 00:47:34
    proud to be eat again No more of the
  • 00:47:36
    memes I mean yeah Price drives narrative
  • 00:47:38
    right That's true In terms of you or
  • 00:47:40
    your fund are you pos still hold a lot
  • 00:47:42
    of ETH versus soul Like how is the your
  • 00:47:44
    position on that Own any Salana We own a
  • 00:47:46
    lot of ETH Um okay We're not allocating
  • 00:47:48
    to to either with any fresh units of of
  • 00:47:51
    capital right now It's mostly Bitcoin is
  • 00:47:53
    what we're buying And you know when we
  • 00:47:55
    believe alt season is going to turn we
  • 00:47:56
    you know we have some projects that
  • 00:47:58
    we're very interested in that are
  • 00:47:59
    showing some very good product market
  • 00:48:00
    fit very good cash flows very good
  • 00:48:02
    profitability at the protocol level and
  • 00:48:03
    that's what we believe are is really
  • 00:48:05
    going to outperform in this next runup
  • 00:48:07
    Keeping with that so these projects
  • 00:48:08
    you've been talking about the product
  • 00:48:09
    market the revenues what other altcoins
  • 00:48:12
    then are you interested in that you find
  • 00:48:13
    and you and you're also allocating
  • 00:48:15
    towards if I recall last time we chatted
  • 00:48:17
    you were bullish on Eptos Um is that
  • 00:48:19
    still the case and what other projects
  • 00:48:20
    are you looking at right now that you
  • 00:48:22
    excited about Yeah So I mean obviously
  • 00:48:23
    we're we're an adviser at Aptos I we
  • 00:48:26
    just had a conversation with the team I
  • 00:48:28
    think you know the new management there
  • 00:48:29
    is laser focused on getting retail
  • 00:48:31
    adoption bringing trading flows on chain
  • 00:48:34
    You know they're very energized They
  • 00:48:36
    have a fire under their ass They have
  • 00:48:38
    something to prove So you know I like
  • 00:48:40
    them Obviously a hated project not hated
  • 00:48:42
    but something that hasn't really
  • 00:48:44
    performed that well over the last little
  • 00:48:45
    mini cycle I think they could be an
  • 00:48:48
    outperformer in in this next this next
  • 00:48:50
    leg Obviously we have a big bag of
  • 00:48:52
    Athena you know the converge they're
  • 00:48:55
    bringing of Tradfi assets and and
  • 00:48:57
    collateral onto this basis trade and
  • 00:49:00
    allowing them to access this I think
  • 00:49:02
    this is a a great thing It's going to
  • 00:49:04
    drive a lot of TVL on on their platform
  • 00:49:07
    and obviously the token price will uh
  • 00:49:09
    will appreciate that And another thing
  • 00:49:12
    I'm very excited about you know just got
  • 00:49:13
    off the call with the you know the
  • 00:49:14
    founders of Etherfi and I think that I'm
  • 00:49:18
    not going to spoil their upcoming
  • 00:49:19
    announcements but I think they're
  • 00:49:20
    building something that I've wanted for
  • 00:49:22
    a very very long time and a lot of
  • 00:49:24
    people have tried and failed and finally
  • 00:49:27
    uh we're going to get this thing I'm not
  • 00:49:28
    going to say what it is I'll leave that
  • 00:49:29
    to them But I think that uh EtherFi is
  • 00:49:32
    going to be a sleeping giant and really
  • 00:49:34
    explode higher uh as we you know get
  • 00:49:36
    this liquidity injection from in the
  • 00:49:38
    fiat space Come on Do you still hold any
  • 00:49:40
    memes Dog of hat or any of the other
  • 00:49:42
    stuff you I got a bit of
  • 00:49:44
    Trump smoking
  • 00:49:47
    I got all of those I think we I think I
  • 00:49:49
    had you know hold some hell of cheeky
  • 00:49:51
    Trump punt you know this there some
  • 00:49:54
    sentiment changes Have some fun Yeah
  • 00:49:56
    that's cool man So just quickly uh
  • 00:49:59
    switching gears here I'm curious and um
  • 00:50:02
    feel free to pass on this question but
  • 00:50:04
    um you know you were recently pardoned
  • 00:50:06
    by the man himself Um so my first
  • 00:50:09
    question is how did that feel And then
  • 00:50:10
    secondly do you think he's a fan Uh I
  • 00:50:13
    mean I obviously I didn't speak with
  • 00:50:14
    Trump directly
  • 00:50:16
    You know we went we went through the the
  • 00:50:18
    same process that everyone else goes
  • 00:50:20
    through to you know send a petition into
  • 00:50:21
    the White House The relevant people
  • 00:50:23
    evaluated it thought that we deserved
  • 00:50:25
    one and then recommended that uh Trump
  • 00:50:27
    sign our pardon and you know thankfully
  • 00:50:30
    the administration did I I think he's
  • 00:50:32
    probably busier thinking about tariffs
  • 00:50:34
    than you know random crypto bros
  • 00:50:37
    you're saying that none of like you know
  • 00:50:39
    I I chose that pardon because you know
  • 00:50:40
    I've watched Mr a lot of Mr Haye's
  • 00:50:42
    interviews and I I like the way he
  • 00:50:44
    thinks I would be flattered if he
  • 00:50:47
    I'm not sure if he has though So I think
  • 00:50:50
    it would just be just to finish off with
  • 00:50:51
    I think it'd be great to like maybe this
  • 00:50:53
    is of course crypto YouTube good to fire
  • 00:50:55
    a few predict predictions Um so um you
  • 00:50:58
    know and we've obviously covered a few
  • 00:50:59
    of these again but just get them out in
  • 00:51:00
    raw numbers Um so some rapid fire
  • 00:51:02
    questions on predictions Um so I'm
  • 00:51:05
    curious uh firstly Bitcoin cycle top
  • 00:51:08
    price and when do you think we could see
  • 00:51:10
    that Uh I think Bitcoin cycle top 2027
  • 00:51:14
    I'm going to go out there Top price uh
  • 00:51:18
    $1 less than $1 million So
  • 00:51:22
    999999 I think 699
  • 00:51:26
    There we go Okay got it There we go
  • 00:51:29
    9999,999 That's Arthur Haye's cycle top
  • 00:51:31
    2027 prediction next altcoin ETF
  • 00:51:34
    Obviously there's been a lot of buzz
  • 00:51:35
    around altcoin ETFs Uh do do you think
  • 00:51:38
    we'll which will then be the next one
  • 00:51:40
    first of all Solana I think it's the
  • 00:51:42
    obvious choice Okay got it Will um this
  • 00:51:45
    is also an ambitious one Will the ETH
  • 00:51:47
    BTC pair uh slide Will that stop anytime
  • 00:51:51
    soon And when do you think it could
  • 00:51:52
    happen I think that stops in the fourth
  • 00:51:54
    quarter when we you know get a cycle
  • 00:51:56
    turn and we really get this explosion of
  • 00:51:58
    fiat liquidity globally this rotation
  • 00:52:01
    Yeah Yeah Will keeping with ETH will
  • 00:52:04
    anything any coin ever flip ETH's market
  • 00:52:07
    cap
  • 00:52:09
    I'm any L1 you mean or you saying any
  • 00:52:12
    coin flip number two Any I mean okay in
  • 00:52:14
    the capsule of time I mean in the next 5
  • 00:52:16
    years any yeah any coin of any any other
  • 00:52:19
    altcoin obviously that will flip year Do
  • 00:52:21
    you think do you consider tether an
  • 00:52:23
    altcoin That's that is true Okay let's
  • 00:52:25
    exclude tether from that equation then
  • 00:52:27
    any stable coins cuz obviously that's a
  • 00:52:28
    that's obviously we know stable coin
  • 00:52:30
    growth is going parabolic for sure I I
  • 00:52:32
    don't think that any other coin will
  • 00:52:33
    eclipse Ethereum's market cap Not even
  • 00:52:35
    XRP
  • 00:52:38
    The XRP army bro With the XRP army I
  • 00:52:40
    mean they they I'm the XRP army No
  • 00:52:42
    [ __ ] chance Those guys are they
  • 00:52:45
    they're hardcore man They can push the
  • 00:52:47
    price and the supply is very tight Um
  • 00:52:49
    well at least circulating But um Okay
  • 00:52:51
    And then one more So what's the biggest
  • 00:52:54
    crypto news story over the past month
  • 00:52:56
    that no one is speaking about that I
  • 00:52:59
    have no idea I can't I don't have any
  • 00:53:01
    anything that people are not not
  • 00:53:03
    appreciating Yeah Okay cool Well I mean
  • 00:53:06
    that's a great way to finish off Arthur
  • 00:53:07
    Thank you very much It's been a great
  • 00:53:09
    discussion Um of course uh we'll leave a
  • 00:53:11
    link to your Twitter as well as your
  • 00:53:13
    substack in the description I also do
  • 00:53:15
    believe you Melrom is going to be having
  • 00:53:17
    one of your infamous parties around
  • 00:53:18
    token 249 Is that correct and May 1st
  • 00:53:21
    and Thursday doesn't rave It's going to
  • 00:53:23
    be lit It's going to be lit man It's
  • 00:53:24
    Dubai No it's like Do you think it'll be
  • 00:53:26
    as crazy as the one in Singapore 2023 if
  • 00:53:29
    I recall Which No there's not going to
  • 00:53:31
    be people climbing over the walls We
  • 00:53:33
    have a proper venue and all those So if
  • 00:53:35
    enough people sign up you know then you
  • 00:53:36
    never know man And if it gets that crazy
  • 00:53:40
    True True in Arthur Hayes Melstrom
  • 00:53:42
    fashion Um but yeah we'll leave a link
  • 00:53:44
    to that down below as well Um and yeah
  • 00:53:46
    thanks again for coming on Holler Great
  • 00:53:48
    discussion and hopefully we can do it
  • 00:53:49
    again soon Absolutely Thank you for
  • 00:53:51
    having me Come on man
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