France shows how Europe can survive Trump

00:25:38
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_VJmoibRhI

摘要

TLDRThe video analyzes the differing reactions of European leaders to the aggressive policies of the new American government, particularly under Trump. While leaders from the UK, Ukraine, and Poland opted for appeasement, French President Macron took a bold stance, highlighting France's strategic autonomy. The discussion emphasizes the need for Europe to pursue autonomy in military, energy, and technology sectors, learning from France's example. It advocates for a European command structure, reduced reliance on American military support, and a shift towards renewable energy sources. Additionally, the video stresses the importance of developing independent IT infrastructures to protect data from American tech giants, ultimately aiming for a more self-reliant and competitive Europe.

心得

  • 🇫🇷 Macron's assertive stance contrasts with appeasement from other leaders.
  • 🛡️ Europe needs a European command structure for military autonomy.
  • ⚡ France's reliance on nuclear power enhances its energy independence.
  • 💻 Developing independent IT infrastructures is crucial for data sovereignty.
  • 📈 Supporting Ukraine buys Europe time to strengthen defenses.
  • 🌍 Transitioning to renewable energy can reduce geopolitical risks.
  • 🔒 The US Cloud Act poses risks to European data security.
  • 🏭 Europe has the potential to develop competitive tech giants.
  • 💡 Strategic autonomy can lead to long-term economic benefits.
  • 🤝 Collaboration among European nations is essential for achieving autonomy.

时间轴

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The video discusses the contrasting reactions of European politicians to the aggressive policies of the new American government, highlighting how leaders from the UK, Ukraine, and Poland resorted to appeasement, while French President Emmanuel Macron took a more assertive stance, showcasing France's strategic autonomy and independence from the US.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    The concept of Atlanticism is explored, emphasizing how Eastern and Central European countries have relied heavily on the US for security against Russian aggression, leading to a significant increase in arms imports from America, particularly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with Poland exemplifying this trend.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    France's military independence is examined, detailing how the country has developed its own weapons industry and nuclear arsenal, allowing it to maintain a level of autonomy that other European nations have not achieved, despite their reliance on American military support.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The video highlights the critical reliance of Europe on the US military, discussing the need for a European-wide command structure and the importance of rearming independently to deter potential threats, particularly from Russia, while acknowledging the challenges of achieving this autonomy.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:38

    The discussion shifts to energy independence, with France's focus on nuclear power as a means to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, contrasting this with the EU's ongoing dependence on gas imports, and emphasizing the need for a transition to renewable energy sources to achieve strategic autonomy.

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思维导图

视频问答

  • How did European politicians react to the new American government's policies?

    European politicians had varied responses; leaders from the UK, Ukraine, and Poland resorted to appeasement, while French President Macron took a more assertive stance.

  • What is strategic autonomy?

    Strategic autonomy refers to a country's ability to operate independently in military, energy, and technology sectors without excessive reliance on external powers.

  • What steps can Europe take to achieve military autonomy?

    Europe can build a European-wide command structure, hire new troops, and rearm itself to reduce dependence on American military support.

  • How does France achieve energy autonomy?

    France relies heavily on nuclear power, which provides a significant portion of its energy needs, reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports.

  • What challenges does Europe face in achieving technology autonomy?

    Europe faces challenges in developing its own tech giants and reducing reliance on American software and IT infrastructure.

  • What role does supporting Ukraine play in European autonomy?

    Supporting Ukraine helps buy time for Europe to strengthen its defenses and reduces Russian military capabilities.

  • What is the significance of the US Cloud Act?

    The US Cloud Act allows US law enforcement to access data stored by American tech companies, even if it's stored in foreign countries.

  • How can Europe improve its IT infrastructure?

    Europe can develop sovereign IT systems that comply with European laws and standards, reducing reliance on American tech companies.

  • What are the benefits of transitioning to renewable energy?

    Transitioning to renewable energy can enhance energy independence, reduce costs, and mitigate the impact of geopolitical tensions.

  • What is the potential impact of European autonomy on global competitiveness?

    Achieving autonomy could lead to the emergence of competitive European champions in defense, green tech, and software, fostering long-term prosperity.

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  • 00:00:00
    [Music]
  • 00:00:01
    have you noticed how different European
  • 00:00:02
    politicians reacted very differently to
  • 00:00:04
    the new American government's combative
  • 00:00:06
    moves leaders from the UK Ukraine and
  • 00:00:08
    Poland all had to resort to appeasement
  • 00:00:11
    After Trump and his team slapped tariffs
  • 00:00:12
    on UK's exports yelled at Zilinsky and
  • 00:00:14
    the White House and told Poland's
  • 00:00:16
    foreign minister to quote "Be quiet
  • 00:00:18
    small man." Each three ended up
  • 00:00:19
    basically saying that "We're sorry We're
  • 00:00:21
    very thankful for the US Please be nice
  • 00:00:23
    to us." In fact the Polish opposition
  • 00:00:25
    even went on to suggest that someone
  • 00:00:26
    should take away the foreign minister's
  • 00:00:28
    Twitter for daring to upset the
  • 00:00:30
    Americans Now contrast that to French
  • 00:00:32
    President Emanuel Macron who factch
  • 00:00:34
    checked Trump at basically told him he
  • 00:00:36
    was lying in his own White House and
  • 00:00:38
    then a few weeks later had a French
  • 00:00:39
    nuclear submarine sent to Canada
  • 00:00:41
    implying that the Canadians might want
  • 00:00:43
    to consider buying these instead of the
  • 00:00:44
    US subs they were probably planning on
  • 00:00:46
    while shortly after he also convinced
  • 00:00:48
    Canada's prime minister to visit him in
  • 00:00:50
    Paris as his first foreign trip where
  • 00:00:52
    the two called each other reliable
  • 00:00:53
    allies unlike well you know who that is
  • 00:00:56
    decidedly not what appeasement looks
  • 00:00:58
    like and it's a set of moves that really
  • 00:01:00
    only France could have afforded to make
  • 00:01:02
    because as it turns out they have
  • 00:01:03
    something that no other American ally
  • 00:01:05
    has strategic autonomy and also a
  • 00:01:07
    business model they'd very much like to
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    sell us from military to energy and even
  • 00:01:11
    to some extent technology France has
  • 00:01:13
    managed to become uniquely independent
  • 00:01:14
    while the rest of us allowed us to
  • 00:01:16
    become existentially reliant on the US
  • 00:01:18
    So with the current shift in politics
  • 00:01:20
    let's see how the rest of Europe could
  • 00:01:21
    move towards autonomy in these three
  • 00:01:23
    areas as well What we could learn from
  • 00:01:24
    the French and also what we might want
  • 00:01:26
    to do differently from them as
  • 00:01:28
    [Music]
  • 00:01:32
    well This video was sponsored by
  • 00:01:35
    Incogn Most of Europe and especially the
  • 00:01:38
    eastern and central ones that were close
  • 00:01:39
    to Russia viewed it as their number one
  • 00:01:41
    priority in the last couple of decades
  • 00:01:43
    to convince the US to extend their
  • 00:01:45
    security umbrella over them and to
  • 00:01:47
    thereby deter Russian aggression These
  • 00:01:49
    people called themselves Atlanticists
  • 00:01:51
    and the belief was that the more they
  • 00:01:52
    bought from America the more the US
  • 00:01:54
    would be inclined to stick with them
  • 00:01:55
    This became especially prominent since
  • 00:01:57
    the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the
  • 00:01:59
    point where now twothirds of Europe's
  • 00:02:01
    weapons imports are coming from the US
  • 00:02:02
    and European NATO capitals have almost
  • 00:02:05
    500 combat aircraft and many other
  • 00:02:07
    weapons on order from the US The poster
  • 00:02:09
    child of Atlanticism is probably Poland
  • 00:02:11
    where until recently American approval
  • 00:02:13
    rates were at an insane 93% meaning that
  • 00:02:16
    polls probably thought of America more
  • 00:02:18
    highly than the Americans themselves and
  • 00:02:20
    where the country not only spent a
  • 00:02:21
    pretty bonkers 4.7% of their GDP on
  • 00:02:24
    rearmament last year but also explicitly
  • 00:02:26
    chose to buy American gear like
  • 00:02:28
    Abraham's tanks Apache helicopters high
  • 00:02:30
    mars and Patriot systems and so on even
  • 00:02:32
    when for many of those weapons
  • 00:02:33
    categories European alternatives were
  • 00:02:35
    very much available Atlanticism also
  • 00:02:37
    extended to allowing American tech firms
  • 00:02:39
    to dominate the vast majority of
  • 00:02:41
    Europe's IT infrastructure without much
  • 00:02:43
    of a push back with the European
  • 00:02:44
    Commission for example not only becoming
  • 00:02:46
    one of the first government entities to
  • 00:02:47
    move all of their infrastructure to
  • 00:02:49
    Microsoft 365 but then even suing its
  • 00:02:51
    own data protection board when they
  • 00:02:53
    ruled that move illegal All of this was
  • 00:02:55
    based on pretty much the same assumption
  • 00:02:57
    as Europe's former reliance on Russian
  • 00:02:59
    gas too A hope that if we just kept
  • 00:03:01
    buying enough stuff from our trading
  • 00:03:02
    partners surely they wouldn't turn
  • 00:03:04
    against us In retrospect that is
  • 00:03:06
    obviously not how things turned out on
  • 00:03:08
    either side And now with Musk straight
  • 00:03:10
    up saying that America should leave NATO
  • 00:03:12
    with Trump explicitly claiming that
  • 00:03:13
    America should only export weapons with
  • 00:03:15
    downgraded capabilities to allies
  • 00:03:17
    because those might someday stop being
  • 00:03:19
    America's allies and with the
  • 00:03:20
    administration repeatedly saying that it
  • 00:03:22
    wants to take land from at least three
  • 00:03:24
    sovereign countries it's clear that the
  • 00:03:26
    race for European autonomy has to be on
  • 00:03:28
    So let's see how France achieved
  • 00:03:30
    autonomy unlike the rest of us and what
  • 00:03:31
    it would take for us to catch up
  • 00:03:33
    Starting with the topic on probably
  • 00:03:34
    everyone's minds the
  • 00:03:37
    military Charl the former president and
  • 00:03:40
    general of France famously viewed
  • 00:03:41
    military independence from the United
  • 00:03:43
    States as one of France's key objectives
  • 00:03:46
    saying that they wanted to be allies to
  • 00:03:48
    the rest of NATO not dependent on them
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    He pursued a largely independent weapons
  • 00:03:52
    industry including France developing its
  • 00:03:54
    own nuclear arsenal by 1960 And 6 years
  • 00:03:57
    after that he asked all foreign NATO
  • 00:03:59
    military personnel to leave France's
  • 00:04:01
    territories France also made everything
  • 00:04:02
    from its own fighter jets its own
  • 00:04:04
    aircraft carriers its own submarines its
  • 00:04:06
    own tanks and infantry fighting vehicles
  • 00:04:08
    and pretty much every critical equipment
  • 00:04:09
    for its own military France is even the
  • 00:04:12
    largest contributor to Europe's space
  • 00:04:13
    programs like Aran which just a few
  • 00:04:15
    weeks ago launched Europe's first
  • 00:04:17
    commercially successful rocket in years
  • 00:04:19
    carrying none other than a French
  • 00:04:20
    military satellite used for
  • 00:04:22
    highdefinition imaging Now the country
  • 00:04:24
    is not 100% independent Many of its
  • 00:04:27
    programs like the aforementioned
  • 00:04:28
    satellite are made in collaboration with
  • 00:04:29
    other countries like Germany In this
  • 00:04:31
    case it also for example uses so-called
  • 00:04:33
    AWAX airplanes from America which are
  • 00:04:35
    like gigantic ultraexpensive flying
  • 00:04:37
    radars And it has even used US
  • 00:04:39
    components in some of its weapons like
  • 00:04:40
    the Storm Shadow or Scalp cruise missile
  • 00:04:43
    This reliance then allowed America to
  • 00:04:45
    block the sale of said missile to
  • 00:04:47
    countries like Egypt And it also allowed
  • 00:04:48
    the US to place limits on its use by
  • 00:04:51
    Ukraine But as you might expect
  • 00:04:52
    limitations like those only further
  • 00:04:54
    convinced the French to pursue more
  • 00:04:56
    independence going forward And the fact
  • 00:04:57
    that France was able to achieve as much
  • 00:04:59
    autonomy as it did on its own just as
  • 00:05:01
    one country and also while only spending
  • 00:05:03
    about 2 to 3% of its GDP on its military
  • 00:05:06
    in the last 40 years or so is clear
  • 00:05:08
    proof that Europe as a continent could
  • 00:05:10
    have become a lot more independent if it
  • 00:05:12
    had spent more in the past and also
  • 00:05:14
    hadn't consistently chosen to prioritize
  • 00:05:16
    integration into an American-led
  • 00:05:18
    alliance By today Europe has become
  • 00:05:20
    critically reliant on the US military in
  • 00:05:22
    three key ways First America is actually
  • 00:05:25
    in charge of commanding and coordinating
  • 00:05:27
    various NATO armies even in Europe So
  • 00:05:29
    they could act as one force instead of
  • 00:05:31
    say 27 national armies just in the EU
  • 00:05:34
    Second tens of thousands of American
  • 00:05:36
    troops are physically located in
  • 00:05:38
    European bases who would act as a
  • 00:05:39
    credible trip wire so that the US could
  • 00:05:41
    credibly claim that at least an attack
  • 00:05:43
    on a NATO base was an attack against
  • 00:05:45
    itself too Third America provided many
  • 00:05:47
    of the so-called enablers in NATO These
  • 00:05:50
    are the ultra expensive ultra complex
  • 00:05:52
    things like those Awax airplanes that we
  • 00:05:54
    talked about with France but also most
  • 00:05:56
    of the tankers for mid-air refueling
  • 00:05:58
    nuclear weapons of all sizes and shapes
  • 00:06:00
    and also ultra advanced systems like the
  • 00:06:01
    F-35 fighter jets for example These are
  • 00:06:04
    all so expensive to develop and maintain
  • 00:06:06
    that it historically made more sense for
  • 00:06:07
    one program to span all of NATO instead
  • 00:06:10
    of multiple competing ones And the US
  • 00:06:12
    was more than happy to be the superpower
  • 00:06:13
    to be in charge of all of these In fact
  • 00:06:16
    they got very angry when the French made
  • 00:06:18
    their own nukes for example But with a
  • 00:06:20
    team of Trump now explicitly saying that
  • 00:06:21
    they want to stop supporting Europe
  • 00:06:23
    going forward we have to find credible
  • 00:06:25
    alternatives for all of these going
  • 00:06:26
    forward This means building a
  • 00:06:28
    Europeanwide command structure that
  • 00:06:30
    works even if Americans choose to not
  • 00:06:32
    coordinate It also means hiring new
  • 00:06:34
    troops to make up for the potential
  • 00:06:35
    withdrawal of the Americans And we'll
  • 00:06:37
    also have to rearm ourselves in a way
  • 00:06:38
    that we don't have to ask for American
  • 00:06:40
    help or permission to defend ourselves
  • 00:06:42
    And here I've got some good and some bad
  • 00:06:44
    news And I'll start with the good Europe
  • 00:06:46
    will simply not need to replicate every
  • 00:06:48
    one of America's high-end capabilities
  • 00:06:50
    at least on the short to medium term
  • 00:06:52
    While America's military ambitions are
  • 00:06:54
    to be an unchallenged global hedgeimon
  • 00:06:56
    including the ability to challenge China
  • 00:06:58
    an actual superpower across the world's
  • 00:07:00
    largest ocean Europe's primary objective
  • 00:07:02
    at least in the next 10 years will
  • 00:07:03
    pretty much just be to deter Russia a
  • 00:07:06
    country that in more than 3 years has
  • 00:07:08
    not been able to overrun its own
  • 00:07:10
    neighbor a minor military power who
  • 00:07:12
    started the war without the modern air
  • 00:07:13
    force or a navy While Ukraine has been
  • 00:07:15
    given access to critical Western weapon
  • 00:07:17
    supplies the quantities were always
  • 00:07:19
    severely limited and didn't involve any
  • 00:07:21
    high-end equipment like the F-35s And
  • 00:07:23
    yet they still managed to hold on In
  • 00:07:25
    fact they neutralized Russia's Black Sea
  • 00:07:26
    fleet They largely pushed Russian
  • 00:07:28
    airplanes out of Ukrainian airspace And
  • 00:07:30
    they forced the invasion of Russia to
  • 00:07:31
    slow down so much that after the first
  • 00:07:33
    few days of panic you can now barely see
  • 00:07:35
    the changes on a map Russia should very
  • 00:07:37
    much be taken seriously and American
  • 00:07:39
    help is extremely valuable especially
  • 00:07:41
    with things like satellite imaging But
  • 00:07:42
    at the same time it's also true that
  • 00:07:44
    European arms from the French Rafal jets
  • 00:07:46
    to the Finnish Patria AMV for the
  • 00:07:48
    Swedish CV90 to the German Puner
  • 00:07:50
    Hobbiter 2000 and so on are often
  • 00:07:52
    already worldclass and easily good
  • 00:07:53
    enough for this task It's just that we
  • 00:07:55
    haven't chosen to buy enough of them in
  • 00:07:57
    the past But this of course is in our
  • 00:07:59
    power to change Meanwhile we also have
  • 00:08:01
    the luxury that Ukrainians have already
  • 00:08:02
    chewed through the majority of Russia's
  • 00:08:04
    insanely large Soviet era stockpiles of
  • 00:08:07
    tens of thousands of tanks artillery
  • 00:08:09
    pieces and more While also having built
  • 00:08:10
    up a worldclass drone industry and more
  • 00:08:13
    that will all be able to benefit from
  • 00:08:14
    too Europe has already become the
  • 00:08:16
    largest importer of arms since the war
  • 00:08:18
    in Ukraine started and has also
  • 00:08:19
    announced record-breaking spending plans
  • 00:08:21
    on top of that since Plus countries like
  • 00:08:23
    Canada Australia Japan and so on are all
  • 00:08:25
    becoming very nervous about their
  • 00:08:27
    extreme reliance on American weapons as
  • 00:08:28
    well So there seems to be a very large
  • 00:08:30
    addressable market for our arms
  • 00:08:32
    manufacturers to finally safely ramp up
  • 00:08:34
    production So the good news is that
  • 00:08:35
    longterm I'm very confident that this
  • 00:08:37
    can work But the bad news of course is
  • 00:08:39
    that we're not necessarily dealing only
  • 00:08:40
    with long-term timelines The withdrawal
  • 00:08:43
    of Trump might happen very rapidly and
  • 00:08:44
    in fact we've already seen that he's
  • 00:08:46
    willing to turn off already existing
  • 00:08:48
    capabilities for Ukraine during an
  • 00:08:49
    active war to force them to accept a
  • 00:08:51
    favorable outcome for the US Beside many
  • 00:08:54
    military experts now think that Russia
  • 00:08:56
    has a big incentive to poke a NATO state
  • 00:08:58
    like Estonia for example with a limited
  • 00:09:00
    scale attack before we have time to
  • 00:09:02
    comfortably rearm to see if we would
  • 00:09:03
    truly respond with overwhelming force
  • 00:09:05
    with or without the Americans and
  • 00:09:07
    thereby risk going to a nuclear war If
  • 00:09:09
    we do that's scary If we don't that puts
  • 00:09:11
    the whole existence of NATO into
  • 00:09:13
    question Ramping up our own factories
  • 00:09:15
    takes time so short-term we have no
  • 00:09:16
    chance but to rely on American weapons
  • 00:09:18
    and maybe even to buy more of them which
  • 00:09:20
    is obviously a terrible dilemma Now
  • 00:09:22
    thankfully Europe does have kind of a
  • 00:09:23
    solution and that is to give
  • 00:09:24
    overwhelming support to Ukraine to
  • 00:09:26
    defend itself because each day that they
  • 00:09:28
    do so buys us more time to strengthen
  • 00:09:30
    our domestic defenses and leaves Russia
  • 00:09:32
    more exhausted Supporting Ukraine is a
  • 00:09:34
    European imperative even from just a
  • 00:09:37
    very selfish perspective But if we get
  • 00:09:39
    through the next couple of years
  • 00:09:40
    unscathed then our weapons industries
  • 00:09:41
    should have time to scale up and then we
  • 00:09:43
    should be able of autonomous defense
  • 00:09:45
    which brings us to our next topic energy
  • 00:09:50
    Now to avoid making this video like 13
  • 00:09:52
    hours long or something I'll only be
  • 00:09:53
    talking about energy in the perspective
  • 00:09:55
    of strategic autonomy There are other
  • 00:09:57
    aspects to it for sure and those are
  • 00:09:59
    important too But in this video I'll
  • 00:10:00
    focus on autonomy France realized right
  • 00:10:02
    after the Second World War that
  • 00:10:04
    strategic autonomy could only be
  • 00:10:05
    achieved if the country also reduced its
  • 00:10:07
    reliance on import dependent fossil
  • 00:10:09
    fuels So they famously build the
  • 00:10:10
    majority of their electrical grid around
  • 00:10:12
    nuclear power which is supplied by 57
  • 00:10:14
    operable reactors spread across the
  • 00:10:16
    country that are also run by a
  • 00:10:17
    stateowned firm called EDF And while
  • 00:10:20
    France also has to import most of its
  • 00:10:21
    uranium suppliers span Kazakhstan
  • 00:10:23
    Usbekistan Niger Australia Namibia
  • 00:10:26
    Canada and more which allows for great
  • 00:10:27
    diversification and nuclear fuel is so
  • 00:10:30
    compact that it can be stored in
  • 00:10:31
    strategic reserves So the whole system
  • 00:10:32
    is fairly resilient If you look at all
  • 00:10:35
    energy use not just electricity France
  • 00:10:37
    managed to cover 50% of its demand with
  • 00:10:40
    nuclear renewables and other sources
  • 00:10:41
    that it can domestically produce which
  • 00:10:43
    is far higher than the EU average The
  • 00:10:45
    country does import fossil fuels but
  • 00:10:47
    mostly oil and coal which are much less
  • 00:10:49
    problematic for autonomy than gas as
  • 00:10:51
    they don't need fixed pipelines and can
  • 00:10:53
    also be stockpiled long-term All of
  • 00:10:55
    which is to say that while they're not
  • 00:10:56
    completely isolated France is once again
  • 00:10:58
    remarkably autonomous Meanwhile in 2022
  • 00:11:01
    the year in which Russia's invasion was
  • 00:11:02
    already underway for 10 whole months the
  • 00:11:05
    EU still got 70% of its energy from
  • 00:11:07
    fossil fuels and over 20% from gas which
  • 00:11:10
    immediately led to pain Russian gas
  • 00:11:12
    imports collapsed due to sanctions And
  • 00:11:14
    while Norwegian pipeline gas was able to
  • 00:11:16
    offset some of that there was an even
  • 00:11:18
    bigger jump in liqufied natural gas to
  • 00:11:20
    fill the void This is gas that is
  • 00:11:22
    compressed and typically shipped in via
  • 00:11:23
    massive specialized ships rather than
  • 00:11:25
    pipelines And looking at this chart you
  • 00:11:27
    can see that the United States is by far
  • 00:11:29
    the biggest supplier of the stuff to
  • 00:11:30
    Europe The problem is that the new
  • 00:11:32
    American administration is of course
  • 00:11:34
    expected to use our newfound reliance on
  • 00:11:36
    their energy imports as leverage against
  • 00:11:38
    us too And also that LG is just
  • 00:11:40
    inherently way more expensive than
  • 00:11:42
    pipeline gas Together with sanctions on
  • 00:11:44
    Russia this led to not only massive
  • 00:11:46
    price jumps for gas but also for
  • 00:11:48
    electricity in Europe since prices here
  • 00:11:50
    are always based on the most expensive
  • 00:11:52
    producers which is now almost always the
  • 00:11:54
    extremely expensive natural gas Now the
  • 00:11:56
    good news is that overall gas imports
  • 00:11:58
    and consumption have started coming down
  • 00:12:00
    and they're now at an 11-year low while
  • 00:12:02
    fossil fuel consumption in Europe in
  • 00:12:03
    general is decreasing too Accelerating
  • 00:12:06
    this transition aggressively has to be a
  • 00:12:08
    top priority for the continent's
  • 00:12:09
    autonomy And there are two things that
  • 00:12:11
    have to happen First consuming less
  • 00:12:13
    energy by electrifying everything
  • 00:12:15
    insulating buildings enabling better
  • 00:12:17
    alternatives to driving and flying
  • 00:12:18
    switching to heat pumps etc The less
  • 00:12:20
    energy we consume the easier the
  • 00:12:22
    transition becomes And second a massive
  • 00:12:24
    buildout of nuclear and renewable
  • 00:12:26
    electricity generation Each country will
  • 00:12:28
    have to figure out which split makes
  • 00:12:29
    sense for their particular case but
  • 00:12:31
    nuclear has some clear downsides in the
  • 00:12:33
    specific situation Europe is in While
  • 00:12:35
    nuclear power plants do produce
  • 00:12:36
    relatively cheap electricity once
  • 00:12:38
    they're built actually building them is
  • 00:12:40
    incredibly expensive and takes ages
  • 00:12:42
    France's latest power plant took 17
  • 00:12:45
    years to build by the end of which it
  • 00:12:46
    was 12 years late and four times over
  • 00:12:49
    budget at 13.2 billion Meanwhile
  • 00:12:52
    Finland's most recent plan took 18 years
  • 00:12:54
    to build where it was 13 years late and
  • 00:12:56
    three times over budget at 11 billion
  • 00:12:59
    And still in construction is Great
  • 00:13:01
    Britain's Hinckley Point C which is now
  • 00:13:03
    estimated for a 2030ish finish date
  • 00:13:06
    meaning a 20-year construction period if
  • 00:13:08
    they actually make it on time And the
  • 00:13:10
    project is of course already twice over
  • 00:13:12
    budget and is costing a mind-bending 41
  • 00:13:14
    to 48 billion The timelines of needing
  • 00:13:18
    20ish years for a single plant from the
  • 00:13:20
    point when a decision has already been
  • 00:13:22
    made is just really difficult to square
  • 00:13:24
    with the urgency of the problem that we
  • 00:13:25
    have And the massive upfront investment
  • 00:13:27
    costs are a real burden too As the head
  • 00:13:30
    of the German energy giant Elon put it
  • 00:13:32
    recently "No private investor will ever
  • 00:13:34
    invest in nuclear again in Germany since
  • 00:13:36
    costs have ballooned to pretty much
  • 00:13:38
    untenable levels." This means that
  • 00:13:40
    governments would pretty much have to
  • 00:13:41
    foot the bill on their own as they
  • 00:13:42
    largely did in France the UK and Finland
  • 00:13:45
    which means hundreds of billions in
  • 00:13:46
    upfront investments Doing this while
  • 00:13:48
    also having to massively ramp up
  • 00:13:50
    military spending in parallel is simply
  • 00:13:52
    not going to happen And so while some
  • 00:13:54
    plants will be built and will also be
  • 00:13:56
    helpful long term they won't account for
  • 00:13:58
    the majority of the change in the short
  • 00:14:00
    to medium term for sure Thankfully
  • 00:14:03
    despite all the naysayers the buildout
  • 00:14:04
    of renewables is actually booming in
  • 00:14:06
    many countries already with Germany for
  • 00:14:08
    example having gone from roughly 40 to
  • 00:14:10
    60% of its electricity production coming
  • 00:14:12
    from renewables in just the last 3 years
  • 00:14:14
    And this growth is increasingly driven
  • 00:14:16
    by private investments rather than
  • 00:14:18
    governments having to full to all the
  • 00:14:19
    upfront costs themselves as the cost of
  • 00:14:21
    solar wind and batteries all keep coming
  • 00:14:24
    down In terms of autonomy it's also
  • 00:14:25
    important to point out that Europe has
  • 00:14:27
    highly capable firms in both nuclear
  • 00:14:29
    technologies but also renewables like
  • 00:14:31
    wind power where some of the clear
  • 00:14:33
    market leaders are from the continent
  • 00:14:34
    Plus we also have strong industries for
  • 00:14:36
    trains public transports bikes heat
  • 00:14:38
    pumps and many others Meaning that we
  • 00:14:40
    can largely be self-reliant in this
  • 00:14:41
    transition if we need to be While we are
  • 00:14:43
    behind China with batteries and electric
  • 00:14:45
    vehicles Trump's axing of Joe Biden's
  • 00:14:47
    massive subsidies in green tech areas
  • 00:14:49
    like these is a historic chance for us
  • 00:14:51
    to lure these companies scientists and
  • 00:14:52
    factories over here from America and to
  • 00:14:55
    ramp up in this area After all Trump
  • 00:14:57
    explicitly said that these are a green
  • 00:14:59
    new scam So he clearly doesn't want them
  • 00:15:01
    And while China has a strangle hold on
  • 00:15:02
    solar that is thankfully much less of a
  • 00:15:04
    problem than fossil fuels since the
  • 00:15:06
    panels kind of just sit and produce
  • 00:15:08
    electricity for years after they're
  • 00:15:09
    installed regardless of what their maker
  • 00:15:11
    actually thinks about us Of course we
  • 00:15:13
    have to learn from our reliance on
  • 00:15:14
    America and mandate that the solar
  • 00:15:16
    installations that we do have to be
  • 00:15:18
    controllable by entities in Europe once
  • 00:15:20
    they are bought Once that is done China
  • 00:15:23
    flooding our market with affordable
  • 00:15:24
    panels is mostly a net positive for our
  • 00:15:26
    transition Again for autonomy you don't
  • 00:15:28
    need to be 100% cut off from the entire
  • 00:15:30
    world You just need to have enough
  • 00:15:32
    control over things that are critical to
  • 00:15:33
    you so that a bully can't come and bring
  • 00:15:36
    you to your knees easily With Norway as
  • 00:15:38
    a reliable supplier of gas shortterm and
  • 00:15:40
    the buildout in renewables and nuclear
  • 00:15:42
    long term we're already moving into the
  • 00:15:44
    right direction but we need to
  • 00:15:45
    accelerate these trends massively While
  • 00:15:47
    the American caricature of a patriot
  • 00:15:49
    might be one driving a gasg guzzling
  • 00:15:51
    pickup truck and insisting on drill baby
  • 00:15:53
    drill we need a widespread understanding
  • 00:15:55
    that in Europe a continent that imports
  • 00:15:57
    almost all of its fossil fuels our
  • 00:15:59
    patriots are the ones who proudly take
  • 00:16:01
    the train insulate their homes and
  • 00:16:03
    switch to driving electric Which finally
  • 00:16:05
    takes us to our last topic technology
  • 00:16:10
    I'll be honest technology autonomy is
  • 00:16:12
    probably the hardest part of the puzzle
  • 00:16:13
    because of technologies tendency to
  • 00:16:15
    create global champions and monopolies I
  • 00:16:18
    don't see a European champion unseating
  • 00:16:20
    American chip giants at the high end I
  • 00:16:22
    have low hopes for switching from
  • 00:16:23
    YouTube myself and Europe is so far
  • 00:16:25
    behind in so many areas that full
  • 00:16:27
    independence is simply not realistic
  • 00:16:30
    That said there is one area of
  • 00:16:31
    technology where sovereignity is not
  • 00:16:33
    only possible but also really crucial
  • 00:16:35
    I'm talking about the IT infrastructures
  • 00:16:37
    that most of our large companies and
  • 00:16:39
    even government agencies are running on
  • 00:16:41
    which more often than not is basically
  • 00:16:42
    some version of Microsoft 365 and Azure
  • 00:16:45
    As we've discussed with the example of
  • 00:16:46
    the European Commission already our
  • 00:16:48
    entire continent has largely outsourced
  • 00:16:50
    the storing and managing of all of their
  • 00:16:52
    data communications and documents to
  • 00:16:55
    American software giants like Microsoft
  • 00:16:56
    Google and Amazon Those of course keep
  • 00:16:58
    Pinky promising that we're totally still
  • 00:17:00
    in control because they now have servers
  • 00:17:02
    in Europe or whatever but we really
  • 00:17:03
    shouldn't be betting on this The US
  • 00:17:05
    Cloud Act was explicitly created to
  • 00:17:07
    allow federal law enforcement to compel
  • 00:17:10
    US-based technology companies to provide
  • 00:17:12
    requested data stored on servers
  • 00:17:14
    regardless of whether the data are
  • 00:17:16
    stored in the US or on foreign soil So a
  • 00:17:19
    European government emailing itself via
  • 00:17:22
    Microsoft for example is something that
  • 00:17:24
    the US government can theoretically read
  • 00:17:26
    and block if they want to That is insane
  • 00:17:29
    and also something that we've actually
  • 00:17:30
    seen in action being used as leverage
  • 00:17:32
    already Amsterdam Trade Bank which was a
  • 00:17:34
    Dutch bank owned by Russians got hit by
  • 00:17:37
    US sanctions which resulted in Microsoft
  • 00:17:38
    yanking the companies and staff's access
  • 00:17:40
    to their email accounts along with
  • 00:17:42
    Amazon shutting off their cloud services
  • 00:17:44
    too Soon after the bank simply went
  • 00:17:47
    bankrupt due to not being able to
  • 00:17:49
    function The Dutch bankruptcy courts
  • 00:17:50
    tried to unroll the bankruptcy but
  • 00:17:52
    Microsoft said no sorry the US sanctions
  • 00:17:55
    still apply and so the Dutch had to
  • 00:17:56
    actually sue them to release the data
  • 00:17:59
    Similarly Trump also sanctioned the
  • 00:18:00
    international criminal court in the H
  • 00:18:02
    for a judgment on Israel that he didn't
  • 00:18:04
    like and he flirted with the idea of
  • 00:18:06
    fully cutting off their access to their
  • 00:18:08
    IT systems like Azure where quote we
  • 00:18:10
    essentially store all of our evidence in
  • 00:18:12
    the cloud That did not happen in the end
  • 00:18:15
    from what I can tell but the ICC got
  • 00:18:17
    spooked enough to decide to review their
  • 00:18:19
    suppliers and have taken steps to end
  • 00:18:20
    some commercial relationships to reduce
  • 00:18:22
    exposure to potential sanctions In short
  • 00:18:25
    the US has already proven that they
  • 00:18:26
    control these systems that our
  • 00:18:28
    governments and our biggest corporations
  • 00:18:29
    rely on and fixing this should be our
  • 00:18:31
    biggest priority And while fixing this
  • 00:18:33
    will require a lot of work this is the
  • 00:18:35
    one area where I'm actually the most
  • 00:18:37
    hopeful Russia has developed Astra Linux
  • 00:18:39
    which is their own government managed
  • 00:18:40
    Linux-based operating system that is
  • 00:18:42
    paired with their own cloud and widely
  • 00:18:44
    used in government circles and even
  • 00:18:46
    state adjacent enterprises like Rossatom
  • 00:18:48
    Gasprom and the Russian railways China
  • 00:18:50
    maintains a similar ecosystem for their
  • 00:18:52
    sensitive workloads around what they
  • 00:18:54
    call Kylin which is based on YUbuntu and
  • 00:18:56
    the French Jem Marie built in 2008 which
  • 00:18:59
    is their own Linux based operating
  • 00:19:00
    system that they claim they've rolled
  • 00:19:02
    out to 97% of their over 100,000
  • 00:19:05
    workstations since This is of course on
  • 00:19:07
    top of other open source tools such as
  • 00:19:08
    Open Office Thunderbird Firefox and also
  • 00:19:11
    domestic cloud solutions The French
  • 00:19:12
    government even started developing a
  • 00:19:14
    full suite of open-source software tools
  • 00:19:16
    to replace Microsoft Office Teams Notion
  • 00:19:19
    etc And while this is still in beta I
  • 00:19:21
    tried it and dare I say it actually
  • 00:19:22
    looks really nice Like I bet many
  • 00:19:24
    employees might prefer using these over
  • 00:19:26
    the abominations that are Microsoft
  • 00:19:28
    Teams and Outlook Also just recently the
  • 00:19:30
    Dutch government started to call for the
  • 00:19:32
    same to happen in their agencies And one
  • 00:19:34
    of the latest adopters is the German
  • 00:19:35
    state of Schlles Horstein who recently
  • 00:19:37
    started switching to open- source tools
  • 00:19:39
    as well I actually asked them to see how
  • 00:19:41
    it's going and they gave me a super nice
  • 00:19:42
    and detailed response which I've linked
  • 00:19:43
    to down in the description if you want
  • 00:19:45
    to read it But here are my highlights
  • 00:19:47
    They have about 30,000 seats which they
  • 00:19:48
    want to migrate Step one is migration
  • 00:19:50
    from Office SharePoint Outlook and
  • 00:19:52
    Exchange So basically the document and
  • 00:19:54
    email management first Then step two is
  • 00:19:56
    ditching Windows Microsoft Active
  • 00:19:58
    Directory and their Telefony tools They
  • 00:20:00
    expect all of this to give them control
  • 00:20:02
    over their own data Plus they also
  • 00:20:03
    calculated savings of €6.5 million e in
  • 00:20:07
    licensing costs and the like in the next
  • 00:20:09
    10 years And of course for the shift of
  • 00:20:10
    their spending going from Microsoft to
  • 00:20:12
    local IT specialists Overall they
  • 00:20:14
    claimed that the transition is going
  • 00:20:16
    very well especially for regular office
  • 00:20:18
    work But they've also found that for
  • 00:20:19
    specialized software or for
  • 00:20:21
    collaborating with other government
  • 00:20:22
    agencies the transition is harder Hence
  • 00:20:24
    why they initially only target a 70%
  • 00:20:27
    roll out by October I think it is
  • 00:20:29
    inspiring that a single agency can do so
  • 00:20:31
    much on their own but their limitations
  • 00:20:33
    also highlight that I think perhaps a
  • 00:20:35
    different approach is needed Instead of
  • 00:20:37
    each government entity individually
  • 00:20:38
    needing to find test integrate and
  • 00:20:40
    manage a dozen different pieces of
  • 00:20:42
    software itself which then might or
  • 00:20:44
    might not be compatible with the rest of
  • 00:20:46
    government or third party software
  • 00:20:47
    vendors we really need a Europewide
  • 00:20:49
    system Now while in China or Russia this
  • 00:20:51
    was achieved by the state literally
  • 00:20:53
    building a centralized system for itself
  • 00:20:56
    I think in Europe where we don't have
  • 00:20:57
    such a strong centralized authority we
  • 00:20:59
    should pursue a different more market
  • 00:21:01
    oriented approach and actually came up
  • 00:21:03
    with a suggestion that goes like this
  • 00:21:05
    first the European Union needs to put it
  • 00:21:06
    into law that its own IT systems as well
  • 00:21:09
    as those of their member state
  • 00:21:10
    governments are critical infrastructure
  • 00:21:12
    and that these need to be sovereign This
  • 00:21:14
    sovereignity shall be defined as only
  • 00:21:16
    using software made by system vendors
  • 00:21:18
    who only fall under European
  • 00:21:20
    surveillance laws and whose code the
  • 00:21:22
    government can actually audit Those are
  • 00:21:24
    completely reasonable requirements
  • 00:21:25
    long-term and they would naturally
  • 00:21:27
    include American giants like Microsoft A
  • 00:21:29
    clear deadline should be laid out for
  • 00:21:31
    when to achieve all of this including
  • 00:21:32
    maybe a staggered roll out So perhaps
  • 00:21:34
    your word processor has to be compliant
  • 00:21:36
    by year three then spreadsheets and
  • 00:21:39
    video calling by year four email by year
  • 00:21:41
    five etc until all the critical areas
  • 00:21:44
    are covered And instead of the EU
  • 00:21:45
    developing stuff themselves or
  • 00:21:47
    specifically dictating which program has
  • 00:21:49
    to be used they should define clear
  • 00:21:50
    standards for compatibility like some
  • 00:21:52
    governments have already done by
  • 00:21:54
    enforcing open document formats for
  • 00:21:56
    their agencies for example This kind of
  • 00:21:58
    a rule ensures that the agencies both
  • 00:22:00
    remain compatible across one another
  • 00:22:02
    while also having the freedom to choose
  • 00:22:03
    from multiple vendors Better yet this
  • 00:22:05
    would also encourage private companies
  • 00:22:07
    to actually compete for this massive new
  • 00:22:09
    market which has clear timelines and
  • 00:22:10
    clear technical requirements After all
  • 00:22:12
    governments are the biggest purchasers
  • 00:22:14
    of IT services in the EU And so serving
  • 00:22:16
    this market would be a huge opportunity
  • 00:22:18
    that private investors would jump on
  • 00:22:20
    readily If this was implemented
  • 00:22:22
    correctly then the continent might end
  • 00:22:24
    up with its own tech giants which would
  • 00:22:25
    potentially also compete against one
  • 00:22:27
    another bringing costs down instead of
  • 00:22:28
    the monopolists that we have right now
  • 00:22:30
    And all of this would be done without
  • 00:22:32
    the government having to build its own
  • 00:22:36
    software Overall I think strategic
  • 00:22:38
    autonomy is at least theoretically
  • 00:22:40
    possible in all the three areas
  • 00:22:42
    mentioned above Core technology energy
  • 00:22:44
    and military as well But I'm of course
  • 00:22:46
    also aware that none of this is
  • 00:22:48
    guaranteed at all Europe is already
  • 00:22:50
    politically divided Loads of lobbyists
  • 00:22:52
    will try to prevent any real change A
  • 00:22:54
    Russian ceasefire might cause all of us
  • 00:22:56
    to let our guards down again Politicians
  • 00:22:58
    might raise mountains of money but then
  • 00:22:59
    choose to spend those on stupid vanity
  • 00:23:01
    projects instead of actually fixing our
  • 00:23:03
    issues And European citizens of course
  • 00:23:05
    might just vote for politicians who
  • 00:23:06
    promise them that they won't actually
  • 00:23:08
    have to pay for any of this in the first
  • 00:23:10
    place After all the cost of autonomy is
  • 00:23:12
    very much real It'd be much cheaper to
  • 00:23:15
    just pay SpaceX for a Starlink
  • 00:23:16
    connection right now than it would be to
  • 00:23:18
    design your own rocket launch your own
  • 00:23:20
    satellite and maybe have a connection
  • 00:23:22
    multiple years from now That said if
  • 00:23:24
    we're smart I think we also realize that
  • 00:23:25
    these strategies actually have long-term
  • 00:23:27
    strategic economic benefits On top of
  • 00:23:30
    our autonomy we might also gain
  • 00:23:31
    internationally competitive champions in
  • 00:23:33
    defense green tech and software which
  • 00:23:35
    would create the basis for prosperity
  • 00:23:37
    long term Okay And if you're thinking
  • 00:23:39
    that your government having its data
  • 00:23:40
    stored by companies that might screw
  • 00:23:42
    them is a problem then you might want to
  • 00:23:44
    do something about the same being true
  • 00:23:45
    for your data as well Check this out
  • 00:23:47
    This is an official data breach record
  • 00:23:49
    of a company called California Cryo Bank
  • 00:23:51
    that they submitted to the US government
  • 00:23:53
    just a few days ago Now that is one of
  • 00:23:55
    the world's largest sperm banks and
  • 00:23:56
    they've just lost the names social
  • 00:23:58
    security numbers driver's license
  • 00:24:00
    numbers financial account numbers and
  • 00:24:02
    health insurance information of their
  • 00:24:03
    customers to hackers Oops Or how about a
  • 00:24:06
    company called National Public Data who
  • 00:24:08
    not long ago lost 2.9 billion records of
  • 00:24:11
    private people including their detailed
  • 00:24:13
    profiles Your sensitive data is a hot
  • 00:24:15
    commodity that is being collected and
  • 00:24:17
    then bought and sold by so-called data
  • 00:24:19
    brokers online They sell it to scammers
  • 00:24:21
    who use it to personalize fishing emails
  • 00:24:22
    at you for example or even to your
  • 00:24:24
    government which has admitted to buying
  • 00:24:26
    data on its own citizens instead of
  • 00:24:28
    bothering to do all the spying itself
  • 00:24:30
    But thankfully my sponsor Incogn was
  • 00:24:31
    built specifically to combat these data
  • 00:24:33
    brokers Because as it turns out in these
  • 00:24:36
    countries at least data brokers are
  • 00:24:37
    legally required to delete your data if
  • 00:24:39
    you ask them to You can see that in my
  • 00:24:41
    case they found over 160 databases that
  • 00:24:44
    I was in and they have successfully
  • 00:24:45
    removed me from most of them already
  • 00:24:47
    That is an insane figure Now of course
  • 00:24:49
    you could do all of this yourself but it
  • 00:24:51
    would require you finding all of those
  • 00:24:52
    data brokers yourself dealing with
  • 00:24:54
    objections and also periodically
  • 00:24:55
    checking in with them to see if they
  • 00:24:57
    haven't just added you back again after
  • 00:24:58
    deleting you That is just not practical
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    [Music]
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