MASSIVE Port Strike Could BLOW UP Economy

00:07:55
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivkpy6AqOfI

摘要

TLDRThe video details a labor dispute between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the conglomerate running U.S. ports on the East Coast and Gulf. A strike looms as the union and port operators have not reached a contract agreement, threatening a shutdown if unresolved by October 1st. This potential disruption has prompted shippers to redirect cargo to the West Coast and pushed merchants to prepare early for the holiday season in case of delays. The White House has opted not to force labor back to work, unlike previous intervention with rail workers. Political stakes are high since any disruption could tarnish the administration's reputation before elections, placing pressure on government negotiator Pete Buttigieg. Furthermore, there's concern that such a shutdown could lead to product shortages and inflation spikes, echoing economic hardships typical of a pandemic-era crisis. Trade coverage highlights these concerns, stressing the significant economic impact of potential port closures amidst crucial holiday preparations.

心得

  • ⚠️ Potential port shutdowns could occur if no agreement is reached by October 1st.
  • 📦 Shippers move cargo to the West Coast to avoid disruptions.
  • 🏢 The White House is reluctant to force workers back to work before elections.
  • 📉 Possible economic impact includes product shortages and inflation spikes.
  • 📅 Early holiday shopping preparations by merchants to ensure stocked shelves.
  • 💼 Government negotiator Pete Buttigieg faces political challenges.
  • 🎄 Port closure could disrupt holiday season preparations.
  • 📰 Issue is primarily covered by trade publications, not mainstream media.
  • 📈 A strike could affect transportation and critical economic sectors.
  • 📍 Situation echoes previous railroad worker contract disputes.

时间轴

  • 00:00:00 - 00:07:55

    A labor strike might occur if the International Longshoremen's Association doesn't reach a contract agreement by October 1st, causing potential shutdowns across East Coast and Gulf ports. Traders are already diverting shipments to the West Coast and rushing holiday stock. Despite potential economic disruption, the White House seems unlikely to intervene using federal powers as it did previously with railroad workers, due to political implications. The situation mirrors a recent political maneuver to prevent a government shutdown over the SAVE Act by a Republican establishment seeking to avoid electoral backlash. Despite the potential political crisis, port workers seem determined to avoid being forced into an unfavorable contract.

思维导图

Mind Map

常见问题

  • What is the main issue discussed in the video?

    The video discusses a contract dispute between the International Longshoremen’s Association and port operators, which could lead to a port shutdown if unresolved.

  • Why is there little mainstream media coverage on this topic?

    The issue is primarily being covered by trade publications, and there seems to be a lack of mainstream media attention.

  • What could happen if an agreement is not reached by October 1st?

    Ports along the East Coast and the Gulf could shut down, leading to significant economic disruptions.

  • How are shippers responding to the potential strike?

    Many shippers are moving their shipments to the West Coast to avoid potential disruptions.

  • What is the government's role in this situation?

    The White House has stated it will not use its federal power to force workers back to work, as it did in a similar situation with railroad workers.

  • Why are the unions demanding better deals?

    The unions feel that the wages being offered are unsatisfactory and the public portrayal of the offers is misleading.

  • Could the government intervene as it did with the rail workers?

    Yes, the government could intervene based on the Taft-Hartley Act, though it is politically risky before an election.

  • What are the potential consequences of a port shutdown?

    A shutdown could lead to product shortages, increased costs, and backlogs in shipping, affecting the holiday shopping season.

  • Who is responsible for handling negotiations on behalf of the government?

    Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg is responsible for facilitating government negotiations.

  • Why might political leaders hesitate to let the strike happen?

    A port shutdown could lead to negative political ramifications similar to a government shutdown before an election.

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  • 00:00:00
    let's move on to the support strike Ryan
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    um speaking of prices speaking of prices
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    um we can put this first element up on
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    the screen this is from the load star
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    usmx in Ila and claims blame game as
  • 00:00:12
    strike deadline looms can you break this
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    one down for us Ryan we're coming a lot
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    of Ryan Grim topics today which is great
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    because it's always educational and
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    enlightening what's happening with this
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    contract first of all credit to this
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    shipping trade publication for claims
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    blame game that's that's funny it's it's
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    it is New York Post worthy it is is and
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    you don't see that from trade pubs very
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    often um the reason we're using a trade
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    publication article here is because
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    there's been very little mainstream
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    coverage of what's going on here uh if
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    the international long shoreman Union
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    and this conglomerate of basically D
  • 00:00:49
    dudes that run ports don't come to a new
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    contract by October first the ports are
  • 00:00:55
    going to shut down all along the east
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    coast in the Gulf so as a result of that
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    all already um lots of shippers are
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    moving uh their shipments over to the
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    West Coast uh and as the trade press
  • 00:01:08
    talks about a lot of uh kind of holiday
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    Merchants moved their orders way up like
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    they're already getting in their
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    Christmas tree they artificial Christmas
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    trees and all the other uh junk that
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    we're going to buy for buy for each
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    other in the holiday season so that the
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    shelves will be stocked um
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    because the uh the business side here is
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    according to the the union offering
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    utterly poultry wages and then uh and
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    then lying publicly about the way that
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    they're kind of doing the math and
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    saying oh look at this huge increase
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    they giving and so they haven't met in
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    in months and we're at an October 1st
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    deadline uh the the White House has said
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    it will not use its Federal power to
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    kind of force these workers back to work
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    if you remember that's the same law that
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    they use to force the railroad
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    basically force a contract on the rail
  • 00:02:02
    workers a couple years ago they could do
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    that again when it comes to this one and
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    it seems like uh the bosses here are
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    banking on the fact that the White House
  • 00:02:12
    will do that they're saying we don't
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    need to negotiate with you
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    because an October 1st Port shutdown
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    would be such an absolute political
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    crisis they're probably right that the
  • 00:02:23
    White House will actually does Pete
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    Buddha judge because it's it's Buddha
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    judge who's basically responsible for
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    kind of being the the secretary who is
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    in between this and trying to get to a
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    deal does Buddha judge want this to be
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    his thing so the unions meanwhile are
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    like just give us a decent deal and
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    we'll come back to work lots of Leverage
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    now one thing they could possibly do is
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    kind of force them back to work until
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    after the election which is sort of what
  • 00:02:51
    they did with the rail workers if you
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    remember um and then and what you can do
  • 00:02:56
    is you can force them into
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    mediation so I tend tend to think
  • 00:03:01
    that they're not going to let a strike
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    happen October
  • 00:03:06
    1st but according to their current
  • 00:03:08
    statements they are now well I don't
  • 00:03:11
    know what kind of brinksmanship that is
  • 00:03:12
    or not um but the the workers are do not
  • 00:03:17
    seem like they're in a position to get
  • 00:03:18
    rolled over here and what can
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    so actual question here what Biden's
  • 00:03:24
    power hypothetically would be in these
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    negotiations it probably look similar to
  • 00:03:28
    what we saw to the rail it's pretty
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    serious power um because it involves the
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    transportation and the and the
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    Cornerstone economic interests there as
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    the Taft heartley act yeah yeah that
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    allows um you know significant
  • 00:03:43
    intervention from the US not just allows
  • 00:03:45
    but sort of incentivizes for the federal
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    government in case of sh and and the and
  • 00:03:51
    the bosses have relied on that for you
  • 00:03:53
    know since the 40s or whatever to say
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    you know we don't you can't go on strike
  • 00:03:57
    because the government's going to come
  • 00:03:58
    in and stop you um
  • 00:04:00
    but I think they took they took a lot of
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    heat for that um for for for you know
  • 00:04:05
    forcing that contract on rail workers
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    and they certainly would rather not have
  • 00:04:10
    the political Optics of being
  • 00:04:13
    anti-un right in October before the
  • 00:04:16
    election yeah well and you know it's
  • 00:04:18
    funny because this is sort of a parallel
  • 00:04:20
    situation to what Mike Johnson was
  • 00:04:22
    facing this week with a government
  • 00:04:23
    shutdown on the eve of the election that
  • 00:04:25
    he knew Republicans were going to be
  • 00:04:26
    blamed for which is why he and sort of
  • 00:04:29
    Republican establishment ended up siding
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    with uh the siding with Democrats and
  • 00:04:34
    brokering a deal on the save act and
  • 00:04:36
    doing this three-month stop Gap that
  • 00:04:38
    would end in December which is certainly
  • 00:04:40
    going to Res result as Freedom caucus
  • 00:04:42
    types are saying in a big spending
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    package right before Christmas nice
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    little Christmas present because nobody
  • 00:04:47
    wants a shut down over Christmas um
  • 00:04:50
    we've seen it before of course but
  • 00:04:51
    nobody really wants it and Mike
  • 00:04:53
    Johnson's logic explicitly was that we
  • 00:04:55
    are not risking a shutdown shutting down
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    the government As Trump wanted over the
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    save act which is basically creates
  • 00:05:02
    protections so that you can't have
  • 00:05:04
    non-citizen voting in federal elections
  • 00:05:06
    shutting down the government over that
  • 00:05:07
    would not be politically viable
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    politically worth it so basically The
  • 00:05:12
    Leverage was with the people who were
  • 00:05:14
    saying like Freedom caucus had no
  • 00:05:16
    leverage in this situation and the
  • 00:05:19
    billionaires that are being called out
  • 00:05:20
    by these union leaders don't really have
  • 00:05:22
    leverage in this situation because all
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    the money in the world that they can
  • 00:05:26
    give to Joe Biden isn't going to offset
  • 00:05:28
    uh how ious the threat to the election
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    would be if we remember back to the
  • 00:05:34
    rail uh the rail
  • 00:05:37
    Uprising after what happened in East
  • 00:05:40
    Palestine this was the the level of
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    political crisis for Biden and Buddha
  • 00:05:44
    judge was incredibly high and to have
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    that literally weeks before a
  • 00:05:49
    presidential election I mean they have a
  • 00:05:51
    pretty good case going to the Biden
  • 00:05:53
    Administration here it's an interesting
  • 00:05:55
    test for mayor Pete uh secretary Pete
  • 00:05:58
    see if to see if he can get a get a deal
  • 00:06:00
    here one reason I wanted to cover this
  • 00:06:01
    even though nobody else is is that
  • 00:06:04
    there's no they don't pay any price uh
  • 00:06:06
    by forcing workers back to work uh if
  • 00:06:10
    nobody knows it's happening in the first
  • 00:06:12
    place like if if nobody if nobody's
  • 00:06:14
    talking about it then the White House
  • 00:06:16
    can actually much more easily just uh
  • 00:06:20
    Jam them and say you know what nobody
  • 00:06:22
    nobody's looking just go back to work
  • 00:06:24
    well so Steve Lamar the president and
  • 00:06:26
    CEO of the American Association of
  • 00:06:28
    Footwear and apparel makes a very very
  • 00:06:29
    very very good case to Biden he says our
  • 00:06:32
    members if they can get their product to
  • 00:06:33
    Market at all during the critical
  • 00:06:35
    holiday shopping season will only be
  • 00:06:36
    able to do so with massive delays at an
  • 00:06:38
    exorbitant cost exporters particularly
  • 00:06:41
    agricultural exporters will literally
  • 00:06:42
    see their product rot on the docks or in
  • 00:06:45
    the Rail Yards and just when inflation
  • 00:06:47
    has started to come under control
  • 00:06:48
    American families will face a surge in
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    prices and product shortages not seen
  • 00:06:52
    since the pandemic it would be a
  • 00:06:54
    disaster yeah absolute disaster no doubt
  • 00:06:56
    about it and uh they say that for every
  • 00:06:58
    day
  • 00:07:00
    that the ports are shut down it takes
  • 00:07:03
    about five days to clear that
  • 00:07:05
    backlog so even if there was only a
  • 00:07:08
    10day strike you know then you're
  • 00:07:11
    talking about a two-month backlog and
  • 00:07:14
    exactly just as the Federal Reserve is
  • 00:07:16
    cut it's already a problem yeah oh by
  • 00:07:18
    the way I was gone so I didn't get to do
  • 00:07:20
    my Victory lap I was correct on the half
  • 00:07:22
    point cut I know I saw that right away I
  • 00:07:24
    was like this is perfect it's why I
  • 00:07:27
    didn't guess but you know it was trading
  • 00:07:30
    in the market a great call yeah you
  • 00:07:31
    could have um I'm sure that there were
  • 00:07:33
    predicted bets on that well the whole
  • 00:07:35
    Market is a predicted bet that's true at
  • 00:07:36
    this point again it's all Vegas it's all
  • 00:07:39
    Vegas all the time hey if you liked that
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标签
  • Labor dispute
  • Port shutdown
  • Longshoremen union
  • East Coast ports
  • Government intervention
  • Strike
  • Holiday shipping
  • Economic impact
  • Pete Buttigieg
  • Inflation