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US officials have confirmed Pakistan
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used Chinese J10 jets to launch missiles
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against Indian fighter jets. What are
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some of the geopolitical impacts?
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I think there there are books that going
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to be written about it and I think
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there's a lot of interest going on
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around in the in the defense circles and
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the air circles on this. uh Pakistan and
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India is a very interesting case because
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these two countries can you know uh
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escalate the situation under the nuclear
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umbrella and it says for the very first
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time that the Chinese equipment and
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Chinese air power has been you know been
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tested on ground and the results are
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phenomenal uh from Britay now how it
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plays out into you know the defense
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contracting industry is something that
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is going to be very interesting the
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Loheed Martin martins the raons and
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others will be looking at very closely
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they will be talking to the US
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government over here to open their
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checkbooks And there's going to be also
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a lot of interest in the in the Indian
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side to have that sort of recognition
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that they perhaps need to diversify uh
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their equipment as well. So so there's
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going to be a lot of you know the this
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this event alone is going to open up a
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lot of more different conversations
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which which we're going to be seeing in
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the next few months. If I can come in
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there on what Hussein just said, I
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completely agree with him and this has
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consequences which go far beyond India.
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The fact that the that this is the first
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time that Chinese military equipment has
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brought down or d or or shot western
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platforms absolutely modern western
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platforms has huge implications huge
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consequences for a place like Taiwan and
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the Indoacific. Uh this is something
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which is going to play out in a big
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manner. A situation like this has never
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emerged earlier. There have been lot of
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question mark questions about the
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quality and the uh uh and the
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effectiveness of Chinese military
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equipment. But so far what we have seen
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over the last 48 to 72 hours uh the
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equipment has actually performed well
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against western platforms and this is
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going to have massive geopolitical
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consequences and we're going to see this
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play out in a in a in a very very big
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manner uh in in the in the coming weeks
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and months. It's been described as the
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country's worst confrontation in more
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than two decades. But how have recent
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events been different to previous
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escalations? Hussein, if we could start
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with you. They're very different in many
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ways, but they are also very similar and
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scripted in many other ways. And I guess
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it goes down to two key issues over
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here. One is the nature of the two
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states that has evolved over the years.
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In the past 70 years, Pakistan has uh
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come to become a a very hardcore
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military regime where there is a
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military rule. uh lot of problems
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related to human rights and domestic
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issues and India has become more of a
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sort of a the largest democracy in the
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world yet sliding towards
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authoritarianism and the second point is
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the related to the shift in the balance
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of power in the past couple of decades
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we have noticed Pakistan's economy to be
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literally on the brink of crisis uh
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having lot of trouble domestically and
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the political crisis economic crisis and
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the India is on the cusp of a a very
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different kind of a trajectory in terms
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of economic growth so I think these
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these B the differences in the nature of
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the state and the balance of power is a
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recurring pattern of why the they're
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constantly having these you know
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inflection points and standoffs over
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Kashmir and over the lojasthan and
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Sashan would you broadly agree with that
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what does each country stand to lose or
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gain if the if the situation were to be
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escalated?
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No, absolutely. I completely agree with
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him. The nature of the two states and
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particularly the the the transformation
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of the Indian state or the sudden change
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in the Indian state not only to
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authoritarianism but to a a very strong
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strident kind of Hindu nationalism under
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under m under under Mr. Modi has altered
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the nature of altered the nature of the
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Indian state and the and the way in
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which it responds to to Pakistan. But to
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come to your question proper as such you
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know one of the the most difficult and
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dangerous things this time is that there
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is no talk about deescalation as such
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you know we both the countries seem to
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be climbing up the escalation ladder
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very quickly. So whether you look at
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2016 2019 you know 2008 2001 at all
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points in time there was a desire for
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both sides to deescalate very quickly
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you know to find an offramp and get onto
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it. This time unfortunately for what we
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have seen in the last three or four days
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there seems to be a race to the bottom
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almost you know people may call it a
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ladder but actually it's a race to the
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bottom where where both sides are trying
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to target each other and hit hit at each
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other and now we have the US vice
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president's statement saying that they
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are not that he's not interested the
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United States is not interested if if
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two countries are fighting a fighting a
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war United States has been the most
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honest broker which has even if not an
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honest broker it has been an
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interlocutor which has tried to bring
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the bring peace between the two
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countries or reduce tensions between the
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two countries. And if the United States
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says that then then I'm really worried
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about the situation. It really is a
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tense time at the moment and a lot of
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our audience is probably wondering how
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prepared are the two countries armies uh
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if an outright war were to break out. So
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the the uh the armies of the two
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countries are reasonably prepared. I
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wouldn't say that they are fully
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prepared or they are the they are at the
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top of their game professionally. you
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know uh in Indian India's military has
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not really had the kind of resources
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that it needs for modernization under
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Mr. Modi which is a big surprise because
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he's a nationalist leader and that would
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have meant that he would have devoted a
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large amount of resources for building
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up the military. There's also short
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shortage of soldiers there. There is a
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there's a large amount of you know large
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quantum of Indian soldiers who are
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committed on the China border because of
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the ongoing border crisis with China
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which has essentially not been resolved
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for the for for the for the for the past
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5 years. Pakistan you know as we just
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heard has had its own share of economic
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and political problems. Pakistani army
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feels besieged in a certain manner
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because of the political situation
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inside the country and there's a lot of
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pressure on the Pakistani military to to
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prove its credibility. But let's be
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clear rather than looking at the overall
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numbers between India and Pakistan we
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should look at the local balance of
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power and the local balance or the
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regional balance of power on the border
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itself is more even more evenly
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balanced. The two armies the two
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militaries are more evenly balanced.
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India does not have the kind of sway
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which it would look like if you were
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look at the overall or gross numbers
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because those those numbers are a part
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of those numbers is also dedicated
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towards the China border. Hussein what
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are your views on that?
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So the way I'm going to try to you know
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uh capture what Shashad just said is
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essentially India will have to
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comprehensively defeat Pakistan while
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Pakistan basically basically does it you
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know has to make sure that it doesn't
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really lose. So there is that uh there's
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that feeling that u you know India
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doesn't have the level of resources and
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modernization that it needs to you know
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uh uh really comprehensively defeat
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Pakistan and Pakistan isn't despite the
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fact that it doesn't have the economic
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base or the political struggle but it
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does have some level of uh military
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infrastructure institutions and as we
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have seen the air power to defend
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itself. Now the issue over here is also
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related to you know the domestic
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consequences and much of what we see
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right now I believe is being driven by
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the domestic pressures. Uh Prime
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Minister Modi has a huge compulsion uh
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because of the recent downing of the
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airplanes and uh the terrorist attack in
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Kashmir that he had to respond. On the
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Pakistani side as well we have a
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military regime a very uh strong
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dictatorship over there which uh
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naturally is losing ground domestically.
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So it becomes very convenient as well to
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launch an external war to mobilize
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domestic support uh against former prime
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minister Imran Khan and be able to have
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that sort of command and control inside
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the country. So it's a lot driven driven
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by the domestic uh politics as well and
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taking control of the narrative has
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historically been integral when tensions
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have flared like this between India and
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Pakistan. Tell us more about the
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information war that's also being waged.
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Susant
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yeah it's a funny little thing you know
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truth is the first casualty in war and
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even in times when there was no social
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media no digital platforms no no digital
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technologies you know coverage of war
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was always very difficult and getting
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the actual news was very very difficult
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but what we have now both on the Indian
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side and the Pakistani side but
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particularly on the Indian side is very
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very tight control of information
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supported by an ecosystem of absolutely
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you know lunatic uh social media handles
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and these these digital platforms which
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have which have gone bonkers. You know
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both the countries, both the
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governments, both the establishment have
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such a tight control over their o over
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their media. It is highly possible that
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both sides can declare victory or the
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people of the both sides can believe
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that they have won and this may allow
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the situation to
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deescalate rather you know rather rather
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happily without without an escalation
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because both sides can believe
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simultaneously that they have won
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irrespective of what the situation is on
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the ground. Uh just to talk about the
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example you said about the Indian the
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few Indian fighter jets being being shot
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down reportedly as has been reported by
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CNN, New York Times and others. What we
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what we have on the Indian side is not a
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single newspaper has even spoken about
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this fact. There's not even a single
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line of reportage on the claims even
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alleging that that an Indian fighter jet
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has been shot down or a few Indian
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fighter jets have been shot down. So the
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Indian population continues to believe
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that nothing of that sort has happened.
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Meanwhile in Pakistan there is there
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there is news which is going on that
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that more than five Indian fighter jets
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have been shot down by the by the
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Pakistani air force. So you know
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essentially Pakistanis can believe that
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they have succeeded Indians can believe
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that they have succeeded and both can
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hopefully even though they cannot live
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happily ever after but still somehow
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find a way in which they can be happy
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about the outcome of the of the war
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irrespective of the reality. I I agree
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with Susant on some of the points and in
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fact I think between the India and
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Pakistan standoff disinformation is
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winning on both sides and that kind of
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is a you know a good ramp ramp up for
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both of these countries because they're
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going to be really essentially targeting
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to their audiences. my best uh you
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know outcome from this could be and I
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believe that we have to address the root
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cause on this and that is that the the
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this the shift in the palace of power
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but more importantly the nature of the
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two states are too off at the moment and
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you have these authoritarian regime in
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India which is emerging in the largest
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democracy but in Pakistan we have a very
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hardcore full-scale military uh military
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regime which is backed by you know the
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American IMF money and all of that so I
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do believe that if the the long-term
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democratic and development interest of
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Pakistan are preferred over the
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short-term security interests of the
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United States then we could possibly
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have a sort of return of democracy and
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you know the the country on a on on a
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pathway where it has credible leadership
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that can negotiate and bargain or
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perhaps a sort of peace dialogue with
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India which could be you know uh more
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sustainable that that's what my thought
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would be really interesting to get both
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your views Hussein Nadim and Susant
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Singh thank you so much.
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Thank you. Thank you.
