How To Stay Ahead Of The Market & Find New Winners | Investing With IBD Podcast

00:55:25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAgtXe9T_lA

摘要

TLDRIn this episode of the "Investing with IBD" podcast, host Justin Yelson introduces a new live format, starting September 2024, where listeners can engage with the show live every Wednesday at 2 pm Pacific. This episode features Matt Caruso from Caruso Insights who discusses the impact of market volatility, particularly in tech stocks such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Palantir. They explore how different market cycles favor certain indicators and the importance of relative strength in identifying stock potential. The discussion also covers inflation's impact on stock performance and the dynamics of large-cap versus small-cap investments. Future market themes such as AI advancements and strategic energy generation for AI infrastructure are considered as pivotal investment opportunities. The hosts delve into individual stock strategies, emphasizing caution with volatile stocks and the importance of understanding market indicators to adapt to economic shifts.

心得

  • 📊 The podcast is transitioning to a live format, airing Wednesdays at 2 pm Pacific.
  • 🧑‍💼 Matt Caruso discusses market trends and the importance of adapting strategies to current cycles.
  • 📉 Market volatility and its impact on tech stocks like Nvidia and Tesla is a focus topic.
  • 💹 Indicators like relative strength are highlighted for investment insights.
  • 💡 AI and electricity generation for AI infrastructure are noted as future investment themes.
  • 📉 Inverted yield curve briefly mentioned as part of economic context.
  • 🔄 Rotation between large-cap and small-cap stocks discussed as a market dynamic.
  • 💼 Strategic shifts due to inflation's persistent impact are examined.
  • 🔍 Stock analysis on Nvidia, Tesla, and Palantir for investment potential.
  • 🗣 Viewer engagement encouraged through the live show format.

时间轴

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The host, Justin Yelson, introduces the September 4, 2024 episode of the podcast 'Investing with IBD' and announces the new move to live broadcasts on Wednesdays. He also welcomes guest Matt Caruso, president and founder of Caruso Insights, highlighting their history on the podcast together. The discussion plans to cover current market challenges and indicators.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Justin and Matt reflect on the turbulence in the market, particularly focusing on the NASDAQ and significant events such as Nvidia's stock decline, described as one of the biggest market cap drops in history. The conversation pivots to discussing market indicators and the importance of choosing the right ones for different market environments.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Matt explains the performance disparity between market cap weight and equal weight indexes, noting the recent changes in midcaps and small caps performance. He expresses hope for midcaps and small caps to lead as inflation rates potentially come down. Mention of market conditions around July 11th CPI report disrupting earlier trends is discussed.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    They discuss the role of inflation and bond markets in recent market dynamics, comparing it to historical periods like the 1970s. Matt provides insights into how the inflation-driven disparity has influenced market cap performances, suggesting a shift back to a more typical bull market might be on the horizon, dependent on inflation trends.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Conversation shifts to bonds and interest rates with discussion of the inverted yield curve and potential Fed rate cuts. Matt talks about the implications of these economic signals, drawing contrasts with past cycles. The impact of interest rate changes on market sectors and growth stocks is also explored.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    Matt emphasizes the importance of relative strength as a tool for identifying market trends. He introduces his approach to analyzing market strength using beta-adjusted metrics, offering a nuanced analysis of Starbucks. He discusses the importance of adaptability and understanding market drivers.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    Further elaboration on Matt's methodology for identifying market trends using comparative analysis against indexes. He highlights the significance of nuanced understanding between different stocks and sectors, providing a comparative examination using BCE as an example to demonstrate market readiness.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    Utilizing tools like relative strength and industry comparisons, Matt describes how to navigate through market environments and seek new opportunities. He emphasizes the significance of catching market trends and derivative sectors, seeing utility and REIT sectors as currently favorable given economic conditions.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:45:00

    The discussion transitions to thematic investing, drawing parallels with the 1990s tech boom, and explores how infrastructure developments in AI might follow a similar evolutionary path as past tech innovations. Matt discusses the importance of anticipating future industry leaders as the sector continues to evolve rapidly.

  • 00:45:00 - 00:50:00

    Matt highlights specific stocks like Tesla and GE as part of strategic investment in anticipation of technological advances and infrastructure needs like electricity for AI. He discusses Tesla's potential role in autonomous vehicles and considers the broad market implications of these innovative technologies.

  • 00:50:00 - 00:55:25

    The session wraps up with Justin and Matt discussing Palantir's potential in AI and defense sectors. Matt advises caution in high volatility stocks but sees promise as Palantir gains market traction. Finally, they discuss the experimentation with live podcasts and welcome audience participation.

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思维导图

Mind Map

常见问题

  • What is the new format for the "Investing with IBD" podcast?

    The podcast will now be broadcast live on Wednesdays at 2 pm Pacific, 5 pm Eastern, starting September 2024.

  • Who is the guest on this episode?

    Matt Caruso from Caruso Insights is the guest on this episode.

  • What market trends are discussed in the podcast?

    The podcast discusses volatility in the market, the impact of inflation, and strategic approaches using relative strength indicators.

  • How important are indicators in investment trends according to the podcast?

    Indicators like relative strength are crucial for identifying which stocks to focus on based on current market cycles.

  • What stocks are analyzed in the episode?

    Nvidia, Tesla, and Palantir are among the stocks analyzed for their impact and potential roles in the market.

  • What sectors show promise according to this episode?

    Utilities, REITs, and sectors related to electricity generation and AI are indicated as promising.

  • How do the hosts suggest handling volatile stocks like Palantir?

    They suggest stepping lightly with small initial positions and building up as profits accrue.

  • What insights are shared about the use of relative strength?

    Relative strength helps indicate which stocks are gaining favor in current market cycles, offering insights into changing investor preferences.

  • What historical market parallels are drawn in the episode?

    The 1990s internet boom is used as a parallel to the current AI wave in terms of market cycle phases and company roles.

  • What are some investment themes discussed for the future?

    AI advancements, electricity generation for AI infrastructure, and the strategic positioning of energy companies are discussed as future themes.

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  • 00:00:02
    [Music]
  • 00:00:10
    hello and welcome everyone to another
  • 00:00:13
    episode of the investing with ibid
  • 00:00:14
    podcast it's Justin yelson here your
  • 00:00:16
    host and it is September 4th 2024 we've
  • 00:00:20
    got quite a show for you today and it's
  • 00:00:22
    worth mentioning for some of you you
  • 00:00:24
    might notice we're doing something a
  • 00:00:25
    little different here I tweeted out this
  • 00:00:27
    uh morning that we are actually going
  • 00:00:29
    live this was something something that
  • 00:00:30
    we're trying out we're going to be going
  • 00:00:32
    live on Wednesdays starting at 2 pm
  • 00:00:35
    Pacific 5:00 pm Eastern uh so if you're
  • 00:00:37
    regular listener uh you can actually get
  • 00:00:40
    your information earlier now uh so we
  • 00:00:42
    will be live on YouTube um something
  • 00:00:44
    that we're going to try we're still
  • 00:00:46
    going to be posted on all of our usual
  • 00:00:48
    channels afterwards so if that time
  • 00:00:50
    doesn't work out for you never fear uh
  • 00:00:53
    we're still going to be there uh for you
  • 00:00:55
    to watch whenever you get a chance uh as
  • 00:00:58
    as your schedule dictates but um yeah
  • 00:01:00
    this is just something where we can talk
  • 00:01:01
    kind of live and uh you know do
  • 00:01:04
    something a little bit different because
  • 00:01:05
    we're just having a lot of great success
  • 00:01:07
    with our live content so uh that's one
  • 00:01:09
    of the exciting announcements I have for
  • 00:01:11
    you another exciting announcement I have
  • 00:01:14
    is Matt Caruso is back on the show so
  • 00:01:17
    president of Caruso insights president
  • 00:01:19
    and founder I should say um of Caruso
  • 00:01:22
    insights uh Matt has a special place in
  • 00:01:25
    my heart because the very first time I
  • 00:01:27
    ever did the podcast uh as a solo host
  • 00:01:31
    uh Matt was my guest and so of course I
  • 00:01:33
    had a little bit of the nerves going and
  • 00:01:36
    everything but then after I got done
  • 00:01:38
    Matt you made everything so easy and so
  • 00:01:40
    every time I every time I have you on
  • 00:01:41
    it's like oh it reminds me of the first
  • 00:01:43
    time uh
  • 00:01:45
    so great to have you on the show again
  • 00:01:47
    Matt how are you uh thanks for having me
  • 00:01:48
    Justin and see now it's something new
  • 00:01:50
    again with the live and I'm glad to be
  • 00:01:51
    back and to get things tested with you
  • 00:01:53
    and yeah exactly and and I I was telling
  • 00:01:55
    Matt look you know I feel like he's the
  • 00:01:57
    guinea pig he you know helps helps us
  • 00:01:59
    out things out for us um but you know if
  • 00:02:02
    this doesn't work out then I'm okay
  • 00:02:05
    calling him the scapegoat no no shame
  • 00:02:07
    there so uh that's fine but uh we got a
  • 00:02:10
    lot to talk about here because this
  • 00:02:12
    Market really kind of uh threw folks for
  • 00:02:15
    a loop I mean we had the start of August
  • 00:02:18
    really kind of ugly for us uh last month
  • 00:02:21
    September man uh yesterday was no fun uh
  • 00:02:24
    on our swing Trader status update I
  • 00:02:26
    called it the Terrible Horrible No Good
  • 00:02:28
    Very Bad Day uh kind of likening it to
  • 00:02:31
    the the children's story um and it's
  • 00:02:33
    gonna be great to get your insights and
  • 00:02:35
    also one of the things that I think is
  • 00:02:37
    going to be interesting to talk to you
  • 00:02:38
    about Matt is this idea of indicators
  • 00:02:41
    you know everyone has kind of their
  • 00:02:42
    favorite indicator but you kind of
  • 00:02:43
    notice that some indicators work better
  • 00:02:45
    in certain markets than others and so
  • 00:02:47
    we'll talk about how you determine which
  • 00:02:49
    indicators to use and when but um let's
  • 00:02:52
    go ahead and uh pull up some charts and
  • 00:02:54
    start with this Market um do you want to
  • 00:02:56
    start with the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ
  • 00:02:59
    sure uh we go with the NASDAQ I think
  • 00:03:00
    it's probably the right one to take a
  • 00:03:02
    look at it's definitely a little bit
  • 00:03:06
    harsher at least yesterday was well I
  • 00:03:09
    mean I think you know Nvidia was the
  • 00:03:11
    gift that kept giving and now it's the
  • 00:03:13
    you know the uh the stock that's taking
  • 00:03:15
    a little bit and I think we're just
  • 00:03:16
    seeing that back and forth where it led
  • 00:03:18
    for so long and this concentration in
  • 00:03:20
    large caps I mean was phenomenal for
  • 00:03:22
    General indexes throughout you know
  • 00:03:23
    20123 and 2024 now that Trend I think is
  • 00:03:27
    leveling off my opinion is I think we at
  • 00:03:29
    least in the intermediate term of
  • 00:03:31
    probably the leadership phase of of
  • 00:03:32
    nvidia's passing and so as you get that
  • 00:03:35
    back and forth action it's Weighing on
  • 00:03:37
    indexes I mean I think yesterday was the
  • 00:03:39
    biggest single largest market cap drop
  • 00:03:41
    for any one stock ever in history on
  • 00:03:43
    Nvidia so was it was a big drop and it's
  • 00:03:45
    normal as you know stocks it's always
  • 00:03:47
    stairs up but it's the elevator down and
  • 00:03:48
    so we're seeing that a little bit here
  • 00:03:50
    yeah and in some ways it felt like uh
  • 00:03:52
    Not only was this an elevator down it
  • 00:03:54
    was kind of like the elevator was
  • 00:03:55
    missing and you just took a took a drop
  • 00:03:58
    you didn't even have the elevator
  • 00:03:59
    bringing you down floor to floor you
  • 00:04:01
    just kind of skipped some uh skipped
  • 00:04:02
    some floors um so in terms of when
  • 00:04:05
    you're analyzing the market you know
  • 00:04:07
    there's certainly that element of you
  • 00:04:09
    know the the bottomup approach and
  • 00:04:11
    looking at the stocks and Nvidia is such
  • 00:04:13
    a good gauge I mean for a while there it
  • 00:04:15
    seemed like as goes Nvidia so goes the
  • 00:04:17
    market for a while there it was Tesla
  • 00:04:20
    was kind of the stock that gauged where
  • 00:04:22
    the market was going um but in terms of
  • 00:04:24
    the technical action are there any
  • 00:04:26
    levels that you're you're kind of
  • 00:04:28
    looking at you know moving average lines
  • 00:04:31
    things like that that kind of really uh
  • 00:04:33
    help provide guard rails for
  • 00:04:35
    you I think instead of just looking at
  • 00:04:38
    averages what i' like to do is really
  • 00:04:40
    and this year has been specifically a
  • 00:04:42
    big outlier like the spread between
  • 00:04:43
    equal weights and the market cap weights
  • 00:04:46
    have been so huge so for the longest
  • 00:04:48
    time I mean all all year long everyone's
  • 00:04:50
    saying hey Market's doing great but that
  • 00:04:52
    was really either you were sitting in
  • 00:04:53
    the market EF or in those individual
  • 00:04:55
    stocks that were running and running and
  • 00:04:57
    running but uh most stocks were it was a
  • 00:05:00
    terrible Market but they just weren't
  • 00:05:01
    running at the same Pace or anywhere
  • 00:05:03
    close to it so I think we're starting to
  • 00:05:05
    get that that shift now where we're
  • 00:05:07
    seeing some like the QQQ equal weight
  • 00:05:09
    has been doing better even the kind of
  • 00:05:11
    midcaps mdy has been holding in a little
  • 00:05:13
    bit better which is a nice change of
  • 00:05:15
    pace we haven't broken out yet I I think
  • 00:05:17
    in terms of levels um taking a look at
  • 00:05:21
    something like the midcap
  • 00:05:23
    ETF you know we've had this pullback I
  • 00:05:25
    think it was dragged down a little bit
  • 00:05:26
    with Nvidia yesterday we've been in this
  • 00:05:28
    range you can see even the pattern wreck
  • 00:05:30
    is is showing it it's been a really up
  • 00:05:32
    and down range for the past several
  • 00:05:33
    months I think as long as we stay in
  • 00:05:35
    this range we're safe we're nowhere near
  • 00:05:37
    kind of a bar Market but really my focus
  • 00:05:39
    My Hope with rates coming down and some
  • 00:05:41
    rotations out of maybe the mega caps is
  • 00:05:43
    that you know the midcaps small caps are
  • 00:05:46
    kind of just pausing here at their highs
  • 00:05:47
    and as soon as Nvidia catches his breath
  • 00:05:49
    from falling they'll be able to push out
  • 00:05:51
    to new highs and they'll take that
  • 00:05:52
    leadership
  • 00:05:53
    torch so one of the things that I think
  • 00:05:56
    was very notable and this is something
  • 00:05:57
    that we've been talking about for a
  • 00:05:58
    while here is that um July 11th you know
  • 00:06:02
    this was a a CPI report that came out
  • 00:06:04
    and it really kind of seemed to change
  • 00:06:07
    uh the market temporarily where midcaps
  • 00:06:10
    all of a sudden uh were were all uh all
  • 00:06:14
    a flutter um iwm the Russell 2000 small
  • 00:06:18
    caps uh huge move uh there and this also
  • 00:06:22
    coincided you know back to your point on
  • 00:06:24
    Nvidia um Nvidia had actually kind of
  • 00:06:26
    topped yeah um a little bit before that
  • 00:06:28
    with this down side reversal was trying
  • 00:06:31
    to get back to New highs and then had
  • 00:06:32
    another downside reversal and the NASDAQ
  • 00:06:35
    um you know also you know had this kind
  • 00:06:38
    of ugly day right here on you know on
  • 00:06:40
    July 11th so it it really kind of seemed
  • 00:06:44
    like there was a change happening but
  • 00:06:46
    then again getting back to the small
  • 00:06:48
    caps you had this kind of come down uh
  • 00:06:52
    just as hard as everything else on those
  • 00:06:54
    three days starting August 1 through
  • 00:06:57
    August 5th um and it it it just seemed
  • 00:07:00
    like it was kind of back to the back to
  • 00:07:03
    the old guys the Old Guard um and small
  • 00:07:06
    caps seemed to lag a little bit you see
  • 00:07:08
    that with the relative strength and so
  • 00:07:10
    it almost felt like there was a rotation
  • 00:07:12
    in play then people were like no wait a
  • 00:07:15
    minute let's go back to the other ones
  • 00:07:16
    and now it seems like they're going back
  • 00:07:18
    so is this like an indecisive Market is
  • 00:07:20
    this kind of a function of Summer uh
  • 00:07:23
    what what do you kind of attribute all
  • 00:07:24
    of this rotation to I I think there's
  • 00:07:26
    two important elements that's driving
  • 00:07:28
    all of this so it you know obviously
  • 00:07:30
    inflation the past few years has
  • 00:07:32
    impacted all of us like in daily life
  • 00:07:33
    but in terms of markets we haven't
  • 00:07:35
    really seen anything to this severity
  • 00:07:37
    unless you went back to the 70s I mean I
  • 00:07:39
    I didn't live through it myself so you
  • 00:07:40
    have to go back and study all of that
  • 00:07:42
    but a lot of the relationships were
  • 00:07:44
    really different during that
  • 00:07:45
    inflationary period like it really it
  • 00:07:46
    really threw a loop like you know a lot
  • 00:07:48
    of the standard um relationships between
  • 00:07:51
    markets so you know one thing for
  • 00:07:53
    example is is uh as soon as inflation
  • 00:07:55
    kind of peaked back in the 70s started
  • 00:07:56
    to Trend lower markets bottomed and they
  • 00:07:58
    started to take off
  • 00:08:00
    this cycle here because of that
  • 00:08:01
    inflation um it really increased
  • 00:08:05
    disparity between the halves and have
  • 00:08:07
    knots in the market so you know if you
  • 00:08:08
    look at the mega cap uh tech stocks not
  • 00:08:10
    only were they kind of a place of safety
  • 00:08:12
    because they were liquid not only were
  • 00:08:13
    they a place of safety because they had
  • 00:08:15
    a big market cap they had a huge
  • 00:08:17
    customer base they also had you know uh
  • 00:08:20
    lower financing costs they could borrow
  • 00:08:22
    at at better rates so like everything
  • 00:08:24
    was working in their Direction usually
  • 00:08:26
    most
  • 00:08:27
    cycles that that's spread between large
  • 00:08:30
    and small is not as big so I I think
  • 00:08:33
    going into really at the end of last
  • 00:08:35
    year the end of 2023 we really started
  • 00:08:37
    to see that broad-based move in November
  • 00:08:40
    December and then we got kind of that
  • 00:08:42
    that sticky inflation beginning of this
  • 00:08:44
    year I don't if you remember that kind
  • 00:08:45
    of like things were picking back up
  • 00:08:46
    concerns came back so I I think it's
  • 00:08:49
    really been the story and we as stock
  • 00:08:50
    investors we tend to always look at
  • 00:08:52
    stocks first but I think it's really
  • 00:08:54
    been a bond story that's that's causing
  • 00:08:57
    all these relationships under the
  • 00:08:58
    surface that people aren't noticing and
  • 00:09:00
    with that if you sprinkle on like the
  • 00:09:02
    modern algorithms where the longest time
  • 00:09:04
    they they do it works right it was you
  • 00:09:06
    know be long large cap Tech short small
  • 00:09:08
    caps and everyone when they get two
  • 00:09:11
    positioned in one trade that you know
  • 00:09:12
    that everyone running for the door at
  • 00:09:14
    the same time caused these very fast
  • 00:09:16
    dislocations so I I think like all that
  • 00:09:18
    in and out it looks so confusing but I
  • 00:09:20
    think it's really if you look at from
  • 00:09:21
    the big picture and you kind of
  • 00:09:24
    understand what's driving it which is
  • 00:09:25
    bonds and inflation these rotations
  • 00:09:27
    sprinkle in algorithm trading and it
  • 00:09:30
    starts to make sense so I think we're
  • 00:09:32
    back at maybe a turning point like we
  • 00:09:33
    were last fall it was put on hold I
  • 00:09:35
    think because inflation uh brought you
  • 00:09:37
    know came back up but should that
  • 00:09:39
    finally you know go to rest and the
  • 00:09:41
    economy holds in there I think we get
  • 00:09:43
    back to more of a normal bull market
  • 00:09:45
    where most stocks go up and broader
  • 00:09:47
    participation yeah and that's kind of
  • 00:09:49
    what seemed like was happening for a
  • 00:09:51
    little while there yeah it seemed like
  • 00:09:52
    we were finally getting the small caps
  • 00:09:55
    going up you know again we had what we
  • 00:09:56
    call a follow through day um on August
  • 00:09:59
    13th and it just seemed like you have
  • 00:10:01
    the S&P 500 going up the NASDAQ going up
  • 00:10:03
    the Dow Jones Industrial Average going
  • 00:10:05
    up the small caps going up the midcaps
  • 00:10:07
    going up it was like everyone's
  • 00:10:09
    everyone's participating uh and then
  • 00:10:12
    again it just seemed like it uh the rug
  • 00:10:14
    kind of got swept out from under you now
  • 00:10:16
    you mentioned bonds and it it brings up
  • 00:10:18
    a few things um so I I've got kind of
  • 00:10:20
    three points that I want to throw at you
  • 00:10:22
    you can decide which order you want to
  • 00:10:23
    take them in so uh number one uh got to
  • 00:10:26
    talk a little bit about the inverted
  • 00:10:27
    yield curve it almost went uninverted
  • 00:10:30
    today at the close uh you know so we
  • 00:10:33
    have kind of the longest you you
  • 00:10:35
    mentioned the 70s and um this is from
  • 00:10:37
    Dow Jones data um some of the folks
  • 00:10:41
    there at Dow Jones were saying this is
  • 00:10:43
    uh the longest streak since 1978 to 1980
  • 00:10:47
    where the yield curve of the two-year
  • 00:10:50
    and 10e has been inverted so we're at
  • 00:10:52
    544 days right now uh started July 1st
  • 00:10:55
    2022 um almost you know almost got there
  • 00:10:58
    it's gotten there few times intraday uh
  • 00:11:01
    to uninverted but didn't didn't make it
  • 00:11:03
    at the close today um so we're at this
  • 00:11:06
    very long streak and and this data goes
  • 00:11:08
    back to 1977 I should add so the the the
  • 00:11:12
    inverted yield curve going uninverted or
  • 00:11:15
    getting close to it um that's one thing
  • 00:11:18
    um let's let's talk a little bit about
  • 00:11:20
    Bostic uh today uh the Atlanta fed
  • 00:11:24
    president who is a voting member uh
  • 00:11:27
    typically known for his hawkishness uh
  • 00:11:29
    he was saying look we don't have to wait
  • 00:11:31
    for 2% or we we can't wait until 2%
  • 00:11:35
    inflation Target is reached before we
  • 00:11:37
    make cuts um and then also just the
  • 00:11:40
    whole idea of cutting in general where
  • 00:11:44
    it almost feels like is is the market
  • 00:11:47
    going to have a temper tantrum if we
  • 00:11:48
    don't get 50 basis points uh this month
  • 00:11:52
    uh it seems like more and more
  • 00:11:54
    especially after the joltz report today
  • 00:11:57
    um you know there was there was kind of
  • 00:11:58
    a a a quick little uh jiggle as the
  • 00:12:01
    joltz report missed estimates um lower
  • 00:12:04
    than expected
  • 00:12:06
    and it seemed like the the odds of a you
  • 00:12:09
    know kind of spiked up to like 50% or
  • 00:12:12
    something of a 50 basis point cut now I
  • 00:12:15
    want to say that those fed Futures have
  • 00:12:16
    been off the mark for a while I mean
  • 00:12:19
    they've been uh you know according to
  • 00:12:21
    the FED Futures we got Cuts coming like
  • 00:12:24
    last year and they didn't materialize
  • 00:12:26
    and then it was seven Cuts this year
  • 00:12:28
    which not gonna happen um so what is
  • 00:12:31
    what is kind of your take on those uh
  • 00:12:34
    three topics take whichever one you want
  • 00:12:37
    well so you know you speak of you know
  • 00:12:39
    like the data points going back to the
  • 00:12:40
    late 70s and that's really to my point
  • 00:12:42
    it's the inflationary Playbook so I know
  • 00:12:45
    some people also kind of uh point to
  • 00:12:47
    recently as soon as the FED started
  • 00:12:48
    cutting such as 0708 it led to a big
  • 00:12:51
    crash because they were they were late
  • 00:12:52
    they were behind the curve that that was
  • 00:12:54
    really driven by um many under under the
  • 00:12:58
    surface problems maybe the FED wasn't
  • 00:12:59
    aware of they're just too late or they
  • 00:13:01
    didn't they didn't realize the intensity
  • 00:13:02
    of it all how big it would be but again
  • 00:13:05
    if you go back to like the 70s and the
  • 00:13:06
    rest when the FED started cutting rates
  • 00:13:07
    markets really lifted off um so and if
  • 00:13:10
    you take a look at what stocks are
  • 00:13:11
    leading now and how you're getting
  • 00:13:13
    better breath and you're seeing um
  • 00:13:15
    interest rate sensitive stocks lifting
  • 00:13:17
    it's interesting there's a lot of this
  • 00:13:18
    action that's in my opinion still
  • 00:13:20
    typical of early stages of a bull market
  • 00:13:22
    that that what you typically see so like
  • 00:13:24
    a lot of the stuff that you us usually
  • 00:13:25
    see early bull market hasn't
  • 00:13:27
    materialized because I think the AI
  • 00:13:29
    trade and the mega caps like just took
  • 00:13:31
    all of that flow of capital soas I think
  • 00:13:34
    some people can look at as a little bit
  • 00:13:35
    more as a a worry that all the fed's
  • 00:13:37
    going to be cutting rates in the past
  • 00:13:39
    sometimes has led to a peak I think you
  • 00:13:40
    have to always look at in context of
  • 00:13:42
    what you know what the reason is that in
  • 00:13:44
    past times that led to a decline so the
  • 00:13:47
    way I'm trying to position is I'm always
  • 00:13:49
    a growth investor first but there's some
  • 00:13:50
    trades that I'm looking at for example
  • 00:13:52
    you know if we expect both inflation to
  • 00:13:54
    come down and interest rates to come
  • 00:13:56
    down that means real interest rates so
  • 00:13:58
    you interest rates adjusted for
  • 00:13:59
    inflation should really drop off so like
  • 00:14:01
    I mean and to to what you know bosk said
  • 00:14:03
    today the fed's restrictive right now I
  • 00:14:06
    mean their their rates if you look
  • 00:14:07
    versus the two-year yield the FED is you
  • 00:14:09
    know maybe starting to become late to
  • 00:14:11
    cut here I think if they want to listen
  • 00:14:12
    to what the market thinks so there's
  • 00:14:14
    some groups and you can see like like uh
  • 00:14:16
    gold has been very strong and what's
  • 00:14:18
    interesting about gold is we're sitting
  • 00:14:19
    at highs if if you were to compare gold
  • 00:14:22
    to like
  • 00:14:24
    um interest adjusted um sorry an
  • 00:14:27
    inflation adjusted Bond you know usually
  • 00:14:29
    there's there's that very strong
  • 00:14:30
    correlation if you bring up like gtip
  • 00:14:32
    which is like the Goldman Sachs um like
  • 00:14:35
    tip Bond it's not a it's not a great
  • 00:14:38
    looking chart but uh the way in my
  • 00:14:39
    marketsmith the way it comes up but
  • 00:14:42
    typically yeah because it's not it's not
  • 00:14:43
    a very high volatile type of it's pretty
  • 00:14:45
    flat looking right you put a daily chart
  • 00:14:48
    you'll see it'll look a little bit
  • 00:14:49
    better uhuh yeah so uh it's the
  • 00:14:52
    logarithmic scale of course that does
  • 00:14:54
    that you know kind of um you know
  • 00:14:55
    flattens it out but on the arithmetic
  • 00:14:57
    scale which we do have on The Daily um
  • 00:14:59
    so typically this is very correlated
  • 00:15:01
    with gold and so it's interesting that
  • 00:15:03
    this is putting in if if the chart was
  • 00:15:04
    larger a really big head and shoulders
  • 00:15:06
    bottom which if this goes up means that
  • 00:15:08
    you know real interest interest rates
  • 00:15:09
    are falling that should really support
  • 00:15:12
    gold that should really support
  • 00:15:13
    companies that are high growth because
  • 00:15:15
    you know they're dependent on Capital
  • 00:15:17
    they they're not you know big earnings
  • 00:15:19
    uh drivers right now most of their
  • 00:15:20
    earnings are in the future so it always
  • 00:15:22
    helps when rates are falling for those
  • 00:15:23
    kind of companies so it makes sense if
  • 00:15:25
    we are at that inflection point um
  • 00:15:28
    whereas people think the bull Market's
  • 00:15:30
    over just because looking at what the
  • 00:15:31
    indexes have done yeah because the large
  • 00:15:33
    caps have led but uh I think if if like
  • 00:15:36
    gtip can break away and start to Rally
  • 00:15:38
    you're going to start to get more of
  • 00:15:39
    that classic acting bull market where
  • 00:15:41
    it's small mids high growth those kind
  • 00:15:43
    of stocks that are really lifting off
  • 00:15:45
    and leading the charge versus just the
  • 00:15:47
    mag
  • 00:15:48
    seven so I mean that that kind of gives
  • 00:15:50
    us a good sense of your expectations for
  • 00:15:52
    the market so if we can kind of switch
  • 00:15:55
    gears because to a large degree
  • 00:15:59
    feels like every Market has its kind of
  • 00:16:01
    differences right um it's like oh uh I
  • 00:16:04
    remember in 2018 uh we focus so much as
  • 00:16:07
    growth investors sometimes on the
  • 00:16:08
    earnings and it was like the market
  • 00:16:10
    doesn't care about earnings that's you
  • 00:16:12
    know oh that's so you know a decade ago
  • 00:16:15
    it it was all about the sales and the
  • 00:16:18
    the huge increases in sales and and
  • 00:16:20
    everything like that and look we saw
  • 00:16:21
    sometimes where people say oh it's the
  • 00:16:23
    new economy like you know famous last
  • 00:16:25
    words of uh you know 1999 and 2000 where
  • 00:16:28
    oh oh business uh plans don't matter you
  • 00:16:31
    just throw dotcom at your you know at
  • 00:16:33
    the end of your name and that's your
  • 00:16:34
    business plan um so there there's all
  • 00:16:37
    these indicators sometimes that people
  • 00:16:38
    can look at um and sometimes it's hard
  • 00:16:41
    to figure out you know where where do I
  • 00:16:43
    go which indicator should I use now
  • 00:16:45
    because this indicator is best for this
  • 00:16:47
    type of environment this indicator is
  • 00:16:49
    best for this type of environment so how
  • 00:16:52
    do you kind of cut through you know the
  • 00:16:55
    noise really because there's all these
  • 00:16:57
    different indicators you have available
  • 00:16:58
    to you
  • 00:16:59
    how do you figure out which ones to use
  • 00:17:01
    you know so to the discussion we had
  • 00:17:03
    before every cycle there's some kind of
  • 00:17:05
    different driver right so this time
  • 00:17:07
    around with inflation the rest earnings
  • 00:17:08
    were more important than other Cycles
  • 00:17:10
    when rates were at Z percent I mean you
  • 00:17:12
    know who cares if earnings are five
  • 00:17:13
    years from now there's no no cost for
  • 00:17:15
    you know for interest anyways we'll just
  • 00:17:16
    sit and we'll wait so that that it
  • 00:17:19
    changes based on cycle and that's what
  • 00:17:20
    can get confusing sometimes because you
  • 00:17:22
    know if you look at just the past let's
  • 00:17:24
    say you know the whole Co bull market
  • 00:17:26
    all the stocks I took off were just
  • 00:17:27
    anything that had Topline growth and it
  • 00:17:29
    was all about the new trends and so each
  • 00:17:32
    cycle um you need to adapt now there
  • 00:17:35
    there's always every cycle going to be
  • 00:17:36
    some stocks that are true to form let's
  • 00:17:38
    say you want stocks with earnings You'll
  • 00:17:40
    Always Find a couple of stocks that lead
  • 00:17:41
    but if you really want to nail a market
  • 00:17:44
    cycle it always helps to understand what
  • 00:17:46
    investors are focusing on and and and it
  • 00:17:49
    may not seem like um it makes a lot of
  • 00:17:51
    sense that that their preferences would
  • 00:17:53
    shift but again because of the economic
  • 00:17:54
    Dynamics it does cause a shift in
  • 00:17:56
    preferences so if you know that's why I
  • 00:17:59
    think relative strength as a tool is the
  • 00:18:01
    most the most important tool because it
  • 00:18:03
    really helps you to um look at all the
  • 00:18:06
    data that's coming in say okay these are
  • 00:18:08
    the the data points we know are
  • 00:18:09
    important we're always trying to figure
  • 00:18:10
    out which companies are growing
  • 00:18:12
    sustainably what investors are willing
  • 00:18:14
    to pay but at the end of the day those
  • 00:18:16
    that are leading in the market are the
  • 00:18:17
    ones that are being rewarded by
  • 00:18:18
    investors right now in this cycle yeah
  • 00:18:21
    so as you're looking at all these
  • 00:18:23
    different stocks and these potential
  • 00:18:24
    stocks again this is always shifting if
  • 00:18:26
    you can always kind of have that
  • 00:18:27
    checklist and be like okay are they at
  • 00:18:28
    least showing relative strength if yes
  • 00:18:31
    it soon starts to become apparent that
  • 00:18:32
    hey they're rewarding either large cap
  • 00:18:33
    or they're rewarding small cap or
  • 00:18:35
    they're report they're rewarding High uh
  • 00:18:38
    Topline growth or earnings growth so
  • 00:18:39
    that relative strength is really the
  • 00:18:41
    important way to kind of double check
  • 00:18:43
    what the theme is this cycle yeah and
  • 00:18:46
    what I what I like about that approach
  • 00:18:47
    because I couldn't agree more but what I
  • 00:18:49
    like about that approach is you know
  • 00:18:51
    sometimes you don't know it's not
  • 00:18:52
    obvious until after the fact right it's
  • 00:18:55
    you know so your signal is kind of like
  • 00:18:57
    okay this is telling you where the money
  • 00:18:59
    is going now you can kind of build a
  • 00:19:01
    thesis as to why but you know look at
  • 00:19:04
    what's happening first um and and react
  • 00:19:06
    to that before you start coming up with
  • 00:19:08
    the why it shouldn't or why it should or
  • 00:19:11
    you know because because again you can
  • 00:19:12
    rationalize yourself out of anything and
  • 00:19:14
    I I often use the point that look you
  • 00:19:17
    can give me some of these headlines
  • 00:19:18
    ahead of time and it wouldn't help me
  • 00:19:20
    the chart helps me but the headline
  • 00:19:22
    doesn't because I I would think it would
  • 00:19:24
    do something completely different um so
  • 00:19:27
    Matt you kind of came up with uh your
  • 00:19:29
    own little twist on on relative strength
  • 00:19:32
    so I've got the Nvidia chart up uh and
  • 00:19:34
    and this is from cuso insights um
  • 00:19:37
    explain a little bit about what we're
  • 00:19:38
    looking at I mean everyone knows kind of
  • 00:19:39
    what's happening with the price but you
  • 00:19:41
    have these blue shaded areas and and for
  • 00:19:43
    people that are maybe listening to this
  • 00:19:45
    you might want to go uh to the video and
  • 00:19:47
    kind of check this out um again for
  • 00:19:50
    those listening to the archive and you
  • 00:19:51
    can find that at ww. investors.com
  • 00:19:54
    podcast um or of course you can go to
  • 00:19:56
    the YouTube um you know check out check
  • 00:19:58
    account Matt's thing uh you can find it
  • 00:20:00
    on our Twitter handles and uh everything
  • 00:20:02
    like that but Matt C could you explain
  • 00:20:04
    what we're looking at here uh much
  • 00:20:06
    detail as you can this came back came up
  • 00:20:09
    to me when I was I was a market maker
  • 00:20:10
    early in my career and and a lot of
  • 00:20:12
    stocks I worked with were precious metal
  • 00:20:14
    stocks so gold stocks are interesting
  • 00:20:16
    because gold itself is probably one of
  • 00:20:18
    the least volatile instruments on the
  • 00:20:20
    market whereas gold stocks are probably
  • 00:20:22
    one of the most volatile in instruments
  • 00:20:24
    in the market so if you just kind of
  • 00:20:25
    looked at any Up Cycle anytime gold went
  • 00:20:27
    up on the way up gold stocks will always
  • 00:20:29
    outperform gold on a percentage basis
  • 00:20:31
    and on the way down they'll always
  • 00:20:32
    underperform so trying to run a regular
  • 00:20:33
    relative strength analysis never really
  • 00:20:35
    gave me that that good kind of
  • 00:20:37
    information so what I started to kind of
  • 00:20:39
    do every day was say okay what is the
  • 00:20:40
    typical um you know volatility for these
  • 00:20:43
    stocks that I'm tracking and I'd watched
  • 00:20:45
    them very closely and so if gold was
  • 00:20:47
    down on the day and the stock should
  • 00:20:48
    let's say fall 3% but only fell 1% I say
  • 00:20:51
    oh this is interesting it should have
  • 00:20:52
    fallen a lot more given how volatile it
  • 00:20:55
    was so by studying that sector in that
  • 00:20:57
    weird spread between the the stocks and
  • 00:20:59
    the asset gave me that interesting
  • 00:21:01
    Insight so I kind of took that a step
  • 00:21:03
    further and really it comes down to kind
  • 00:21:04
    of studying Alpha instead of just
  • 00:21:07
    relative strength so basically you take
  • 00:21:09
    the stock and you look at how it's
  • 00:21:11
    related to the index and you also adjust
  • 00:21:13
    it for how volatile it is how jumpy it
  • 00:21:15
    is and what I do is I look at a few
  • 00:21:17
    different time frames I like to look at
  • 00:21:19
    between three to six months to have a
  • 00:21:20
    more recent reading but the blue shaded
  • 00:21:22
    area is basically when there's like a
  • 00:21:24
    critical threshold is passed where based
  • 00:21:26
    on its relationship to the index and its
  • 00:21:27
    volatility is it is it outperforming
  • 00:21:30
    base for its uh based on its uh
  • 00:21:33
    temperament if that's the case have a
  • 00:21:35
    blue shaded background if not I don't so
  • 00:21:38
    if you look at Nvidia here interestingly
  • 00:21:40
    you can see in January it started to
  • 00:21:42
    turn blue background it had a great run
  • 00:21:43
    up even though we're still pretty close
  • 00:21:46
    to the highs as of now this bad break is
  • 00:21:49
    kind of telling us like hey you know
  • 00:21:51
    given nvidia's you know relationship to
  • 00:21:53
    the market and volatility this is this
  • 00:21:54
    is a bad break so it's it's kind of lost
  • 00:21:56
    that leadership role right now whereas a
  • 00:21:58
    traditional ranking tool like an RS
  • 00:22:00
    which just looks at percentage returns
  • 00:22:02
    over the past 12 months Nvidia still
  • 00:22:04
    looks great so this is kind of an
  • 00:22:05
    interesting tool where it adjusts for
  • 00:22:07
    the specific nature of the individual
  • 00:22:10
    stocks and and so you you're using kind
  • 00:22:13
    of a comparative at is what what's your
  • 00:22:15
    bogey what what is your comparison that
  • 00:22:17
    you're using because you mentioned gold
  • 00:22:19
    versus gold stocks are you getting that
  • 00:22:21
    minute or are you going broad just S&P
  • 00:22:24
    500 so by default I found interestingly
  • 00:22:26
    enough I I even found that I I said stud
  • 00:22:28
    the same gold stocks versus the S&P it's
  • 00:22:30
    really it seems to be whoever is
  • 00:22:31
    outperforming the S&P is really getting
  • 00:22:34
    like the money flow so if you want to be
  • 00:22:35
    if you're a really nich investor and you
  • 00:22:37
    say I just invest in gold stocks or in
  • 00:22:39
    oil stocks or whatever you know you can
  • 00:22:41
    change the point of reference you can
  • 00:22:43
    see I'm GNA compare just to Gold but but
  • 00:22:45
    by default I still always like to refer
  • 00:22:47
    against the S&P 500 that's the the
  • 00:22:50
    default index Everyone's Watching and
  • 00:22:51
    that really helps to show where the big
  • 00:22:53
    money is really rotating to and and why
  • 00:22:57
    why do you use um for instance because
  • 00:22:59
    there there's a lot of different
  • 00:23:00
    measures of volatility um if you want to
  • 00:23:02
    get into the options Market you can look
  • 00:23:04
    at implied volatility looking forward
  • 00:23:07
    you can look at historical volatility
  • 00:23:09
    which people usually use standard
  • 00:23:10
    deviation um you can look at uh some
  • 00:23:13
    people like to look at the ATR the
  • 00:23:14
    average true range over a certain number
  • 00:23:17
    of periods to kind of say oh this is how
  • 00:23:19
    much this stock tends to move um why why
  • 00:23:23
    beta because beta has kind of two
  • 00:23:26
    components to it it looks at both the
  • 00:23:28
    volatil of the stock but it also looks
  • 00:23:30
    at how much it's uh related to the index
  • 00:23:33
    you're comparing it to so for example
  • 00:23:35
    let's say you look at um a telecom
  • 00:23:37
    company it may have low volatility so an
  • 00:23:40
    ATR you know average true range or any
  • 00:23:42
    kind of historical volatility would also
  • 00:23:43
    kind of uh bring you to that conclusion
  • 00:23:46
    but it may not be very correlated with
  • 00:23:48
    the index so by kind of measuring versus
  • 00:23:51
    the S&P but using both those components
  • 00:23:53
    you really get interesting Insight so
  • 00:23:55
    you just brought up uh BCE which is a
  • 00:23:57
    Canadian uh Telecom company and they
  • 00:23:59
    have a really high yield I think at
  • 00:24:00
    their lows was like a 9% interest rate
  • 00:24:03
    yield dividend yield okay which it
  • 00:24:04
    sounds crazy but I mean they're they're
  • 00:24:06
    I think probably the largest Telecom in
  • 00:24:08
    the country so they're a sizable player
  • 00:24:09
    with that yield and you can see they've
  • 00:24:11
    underperformed the entire cycle and
  • 00:24:13
    before people you know start saying
  • 00:24:15
    blame Canada or you know bad things
  • 00:24:17
    about Canada Matt is you know he's in
  • 00:24:20
    Canada right now so it's you know keep
  • 00:24:23
    your comments uh very very friendly okay
  • 00:24:26
    to to our Canadian neighbor
  • 00:24:29
    so so this is a large Telecom so large
  • 00:24:31
    Telecom uh High div yield this has just
  • 00:24:33
    been completely out of favor because you
  • 00:24:36
    know with with rates going up if you can
  • 00:24:37
    get 5% with the government you know why
  • 00:24:39
    take the risk of an individual stock and
  • 00:24:41
    that's what's led to this dislocation
  • 00:24:43
    but it's interesting you can see that um
  • 00:24:45
    coming off of the bottom even in this
  • 00:24:47
    chart here if you look at last fall you
  • 00:24:49
    saw there was a rally from you know
  • 00:24:50
    October into January but the blue
  • 00:24:52
    background never came on because the S&P
  • 00:24:54
    was still pretty strong during that
  • 00:24:56
    period however if you look at right now
  • 00:24:59
    coming off the bottom we're starting to
  • 00:25:00
    get the initial signs that hey we're
  • 00:25:02
    starting to outperform here I mean a
  • 00:25:04
    traditional chartist would look at this
  • 00:25:05
    and be like whoa this is a still in a
  • 00:25:07
    strong downtrend but there are signs
  • 00:25:09
    that we're improving on a relative basis
  • 00:25:12
    for this stocks volatility versus the
  • 00:25:13
    S&P so this when going through a lot of
  • 00:25:15
    charts uh especially at turning points
  • 00:25:18
    in the market where Nvidia has been the
  • 00:25:19
    clear you know dominant king of this
  • 00:25:22
    market and you're looking at this you're
  • 00:25:23
    saying hey this is fallen out and you
  • 00:25:26
    know who's falling into relative
  • 00:25:27
    strength and it starts to kind of again
  • 00:25:29
    like we said you know figuring out for
  • 00:25:31
    the new cycle it seems like every three
  • 00:25:33
    to six months there's a new kind of
  • 00:25:34
    cycle that will take you know uh
  • 00:25:36
    investors attention you help to kind of
  • 00:25:38
    build that thesis like you said okay
  • 00:25:39
    well what's driving is is it more
  • 00:25:41
    interest rate sensitive stocks is the
  • 00:25:42
    market finally pricing in rate cuts for
  • 00:25:44
    real again you know they dialed it back
  • 00:25:46
    earlier in the year if that's the case
  • 00:25:47
    it's going to lead to new winners uh you
  • 00:25:49
    know this is a maybe a a value type of
  • 00:25:52
    play but again going to even individual
  • 00:25:54
    grow stocks you'll start to see that hey
  • 00:25:55
    wow this is really kind of uh hitting
  • 00:25:57
    new groups that weren't participating
  • 00:25:59
    before well and you know to your point
  • 00:26:01
    sometimes that can let let you know
  • 00:26:04
    growth isn't being favored value is
  • 00:26:05
    being favored you know a lot of times uh
  • 00:26:08
    on our general markets page for for
  • 00:26:09
    folks that aren't aware of this uh we
  • 00:26:11
    have our general markets indicators page
  • 00:26:13
    and two uh two Graphics that bill used
  • 00:26:16
    to really like to look at one was um
  • 00:26:19
    basically growth versus value you know
  • 00:26:21
    he used a a simple growth fund versus a
  • 00:26:24
    value fund when the line was going up
  • 00:26:26
    growth was outperforming when the line
  • 00:26:28
    was going down value was outperforming
  • 00:26:30
    um you know or you could also do that
  • 00:26:32
    with big caps versus small caps it kind
  • 00:26:34
    of gives you that sense you know because
  • 00:26:36
    again at the end of the day a relative
  • 00:26:38
    strength really is just a ratio right
  • 00:26:40
    it's just with you know this this number
  • 00:26:43
    over this number which one if it's going
  • 00:26:46
    up the top number is outperforming and
  • 00:26:48
    you know opposite the other way um talk
  • 00:26:52
    to me a little bit about like especially
  • 00:26:53
    on
  • 00:26:54
    BCE you know this seems like it had
  • 00:26:57
    these short blips you know recently a
  • 00:26:59
    short blip and then oh not not not quite
  • 00:27:02
    a short blip not quite now we're in
  • 00:27:04
    another one of these blue shaded areas
  • 00:27:06
    how do you know how how long is enough
  • 00:27:09
    time to say oh this is really catching
  • 00:27:11
    on now as opposed to oh you had one bad
  • 00:27:14
    day people kind of like were you know
  • 00:27:17
    were scared a little bit or a few bad
  • 00:27:19
    days they went defensive how do you know
  • 00:27:21
    it's a real Trend how many days I guess
  • 00:27:25
    yeah so that's why this tool looks at
  • 00:27:27
    like both kind of one- month readings as
  • 00:27:29
    well as six-month readings so it's it's
  • 00:27:31
    a blend of time frames but another like
  • 00:27:33
    way I like to use it as well to kind of
  • 00:27:35
    get again is the theme broader or is it
  • 00:27:37
    just one stock story if you bring up
  • 00:27:39
    other chart uh AMT which is an American
  • 00:27:42
    um uh you know provider of antennas and
  • 00:27:44
    all all the other kind of Telecom
  • 00:27:46
    infrastructure if you can start seeing
  • 00:27:48
    it you know that those kind of turns
  • 00:27:50
    happening in other stocks in the group
  • 00:27:52
    as well so say oh I think there's a
  • 00:27:53
    little more of a broader stock uh group
  • 00:27:55
    move here than just one individual stock
  • 00:27:58
    so that's a nice thing kind of being
  • 00:27:59
    able to compare different stocks within
  • 00:28:01
    the same group will bring also different
  • 00:28:03
    insights as well instead of just looking
  • 00:28:05
    at the stock by
  • 00:28:06
    itself and you know to your point like
  • 00:28:09
    in terms of one of these areas that does
  • 00:28:11
    seem to be favored right now REITs are
  • 00:28:14
    are a big area um you know xlre if you
  • 00:28:17
    look at the sector spider funds or uh
  • 00:28:19
    one of the things we did with David Ryan
  • 00:28:21
    today on IBD live is he was just like
  • 00:28:24
    okay look at look at the market surge
  • 00:28:26
    growth 250 and you know percent off high
  • 00:28:30
    and the stocks that were the least off
  • 00:28:32
    their highs filled with REITs filled
  • 00:28:35
    with financial specialty filled with
  • 00:28:37
    insurance um filled with utilities uh
  • 00:28:40
    electric power so those you know there's
  • 00:28:43
    just a lot of different ways to come at
  • 00:28:45
    this in terms of what's holding up best
  • 00:28:48
    um that's one way I think this is
  • 00:28:50
    another great way of doing it kind of
  • 00:28:52
    again making that adjustment uh you can
  • 00:28:54
    use Market surge charts and look at the
  • 00:28:56
    relative strength line again a very simp
  • 00:28:58
    ratio uh you can put me moving averages
  • 00:29:00
    on them um so there there's a lot of
  • 00:29:03
    different ways to come at this but at
  • 00:29:05
    the end of the day once you figure out
  • 00:29:07
    okay something's happening then what
  • 00:29:11
    what's your next step how do you how do
  • 00:29:12
    you use this information to again does
  • 00:29:15
    this kind of go to that bottomup
  • 00:29:16
    approach you say okay here are the areas
  • 00:29:18
    that I'm
  • 00:29:19
    noticing that are moving the money is
  • 00:29:21
    Flowing to them this is my list or I
  • 00:29:25
    mean if you're a growth investor and
  • 00:29:27
    growth is isn't working do you just say
  • 00:29:29
    okay I'm going to St cash for now you
  • 00:29:31
    know I think that comes down to again uh
  • 00:29:34
    Bill's methodology which is always Rings
  • 00:29:36
    true is is you have to find the leader
  • 00:29:37
    of the cycle no matter what it is so you
  • 00:29:40
    know last cycle was Nvidia this time
  • 00:29:42
    around we're seeing these different
  • 00:29:43
    stocks kind of move higher and you know
  • 00:29:45
    who's the leader of of this cycle even
  • 00:29:47
    if there is this trend taking off it's
  • 00:29:49
    interesting even looking at like all the
  • 00:29:50
    you know the REITs and the rest of the
  • 00:29:51
    stocks we're looking at like you
  • 00:29:53
    mentioned it brings out I think what is
  • 00:29:55
    like um a key principle of the market it
  • 00:29:58
    it doesn't matter what you did in the
  • 00:29:59
    past it's all about what's coming next
  • 00:30:00
    so yeah you know earnings and sales are
  • 00:30:02
    always a great tool to see it's kind of
  • 00:30:04
    like a um you know your track record
  • 00:30:06
    right a company's track record and it's
  • 00:30:07
    just a way to figure out know are you
  • 00:30:09
    gonna keep being this winner if you've
  • 00:30:11
    done it before chances are you'll do it
  • 00:30:12
    again but at turning points sometimes
  • 00:30:14
    and usually driven by bonds because
  • 00:30:15
    bonds are you know have a big impact on
  • 00:30:17
    so many stocks and and their earnings
  • 00:30:20
    sometimes you know by the time the ccal
  • 00:30:22
    by the time they have great earnings the
  • 00:30:23
    move is over because then after they're
  • 00:30:24
    back to fully they're priced fully back
  • 00:30:26
    to to normal so these turns you know
  • 00:30:28
    sometimes you're seeing these reats in
  • 00:30:29
    in different companies and you're saying
  • 00:30:31
    you can't understand they they don't
  • 00:30:32
    have great numbers yet what's going on
  • 00:30:34
    it's investors anticipating that falling
  • 00:30:36
    interest rates are GNA you know boost
  • 00:30:37
    their earnings in the future it it's
  • 00:30:39
    also going to make them more attractive
  • 00:30:40
    as their dividend yields relative to
  • 00:30:42
    interest rates are going to be higher
  • 00:30:44
    and so those are some key themes now you
  • 00:30:45
    can take it a step further and say okay
  • 00:30:48
    well I I don't want to just invest in
  • 00:30:49
    the utility I who's growing that has big
  • 00:30:52
    growth numbers that's in that theme who
  • 00:30:55
    who's exploiting that theme and also has
  • 00:30:58
    a long-term kind of secular growth Trend
  • 00:31:01
    uh that's benefiting so if you're you
  • 00:31:02
    know talking utilities those utilities
  • 00:31:04
    you know towards energy generation
  • 00:31:06
    that's gonna support AI growth that's a
  • 00:31:08
    way you can kind of tie in two themes
  • 00:31:10
    together to try and find true leaders
  • 00:31:12
    versus just a beaten up stock that's
  • 00:31:14
    bouncing off the bottom so really kind
  • 00:31:15
    of building this Mosaic picture looking
  • 00:31:17
    at different things that maybe at first
  • 00:31:20
    glance aren't related but trying to kind
  • 00:31:22
    of build that thesis with all these
  • 00:31:23
    different data points if you can catch
  • 00:31:25
    on early in the trend what's going on
  • 00:31:28
    then that really allows you to get to
  • 00:31:29
    those key leaders which is again looking
  • 00:31:31
    at Nvidia in the past year all you had
  • 00:31:33
    to do was be in Nvidia and you you had a
  • 00:31:34
    good ride right um so you know to that
  • 00:31:38
    point uh one of the things you and I
  • 00:31:39
    were talking about earlier is you know
  • 00:31:41
    again when you're kind of approaching
  • 00:31:42
    this this theme uh thematic approach um
  • 00:31:47
    you kind of were likening this back to
  • 00:31:49
    the the Heyday of the internet right the
  • 00:31:51
    1990s where you did have a lot of this
  • 00:31:54
    infrastructure starting things out um
  • 00:31:57
    you know what what what was it Ascend
  • 00:31:58
    with the switches Cisco you know with
  • 00:32:01
    the networking capabilities and then um
  • 00:32:04
    now you you know after that you got kind
  • 00:32:06
    of the consumer products like Yahoo and
  • 00:32:10
    AOL and you know and and the search
  • 00:32:12
    engines um you know at one point
  • 00:32:15
    remember we were it was all about Yahoo
  • 00:32:16
    and ask G's right I remember that yeah
  • 00:32:19
    things like that you know and again you
  • 00:32:21
    never know sometimes who is gonna be the
  • 00:32:24
    winner of of some of these um you know I
  • 00:32:26
    mean Qualcomm was the by far in a way
  • 00:32:30
    the chip leader because of what they
  • 00:32:31
    were doing in phones um you know and you
  • 00:32:34
    just you you just sometimes don't know
  • 00:32:36
    so I guess there's that um Balancing Act
  • 00:32:40
    of being early enough to kind of catch
  • 00:32:43
    the majority of the trend but not being
  • 00:32:46
    too early to where it's not apparent who
  • 00:32:50
    who's going to lead or or what's going
  • 00:32:52
    to lead sometimes it's a little bit of a
  • 00:32:55
    mismatch as people are trying to figure
  • 00:32:57
    out the theme still so how do you kind
  • 00:32:59
    of learn from that past uh that past
  • 00:33:02
    experience in the 90s and apply it to
  • 00:33:04
    something like AI today I think I think
  • 00:33:07
    we're fortunate because um if you were
  • 00:33:10
    in you know trading in the 90s there
  • 00:33:11
    there wasn't a perfect parallel like
  • 00:33:13
    like a um a growth industry that was
  • 00:33:16
    going to grow that fast so we can look
  • 00:33:18
    back at the internet and what you had
  • 00:33:20
    was the initial infrastructure wave that
  • 00:33:22
    then led to Consumer products like you
  • 00:33:23
    mentioned like the yahoos and the rest
  • 00:33:25
    and then you also had a secondary
  • 00:33:27
    infrastructure wave like Qualcomm you
  • 00:33:28
    mentioned that they only had their big
  • 00:33:29
    move like way late in the 90s yeah and
  • 00:33:31
    also you know originally you know Cisco
  • 00:33:33
    was the big winner but late on late on
  • 00:33:35
    you had like um uh Lucent Nell networks
  • 00:33:38
    where ethernet people demanded faster
  • 00:33:40
    internet so um looking at the current
  • 00:33:44
    cycle nvidia's been that initial leader
  • 00:33:45
    but if you get too fixated on the leader
  • 00:33:48
    from one part of the cycle you sometimes
  • 00:33:50
    you know the opportunity for that leader
  • 00:33:51
    gets fully priced in and then there's
  • 00:33:53
    these new upstarts that come around that
  • 00:33:54
    have these incredible advances so I
  • 00:33:57
    think we had wave one uh even with
  • 00:34:00
    Nvidia I think there was news recently
  • 00:34:01
    about the antitrust and all the rest so
  • 00:34:03
    it's kind of you get so big so fast and
  • 00:34:05
    you run into some other different issues
  • 00:34:06
    but there's always going to be someone
  • 00:34:07
    who's new who's coming to the market
  • 00:34:09
    who's going to provide a new angle to
  • 00:34:11
    make the chips even faster or what I
  • 00:34:13
    think is the next stage is we're going
  • 00:34:15
    to start to see the fruits of all this
  • 00:34:16
    massive capex so you know you're looking
  • 00:34:19
    at companies like Tesla where musk is
  • 00:34:21
    deploying these AI clusters yeah Nvidia
  • 00:34:24
    benefited now because he bought all
  • 00:34:26
    these thousands of of chips from them
  • 00:34:28
    but at the end of the day if you can't
  • 00:34:29
    turn all that into a profit you know
  • 00:34:30
    they Nvidia won't keep selling those
  • 00:34:32
    chips so you know someone's going to be
  • 00:34:34
    generating some incredible products and
  • 00:34:37
    that's going to create a whole new wave
  • 00:34:38
    of opportunity so we need to be we can't
  • 00:34:40
    just get too fixated on one leader
  • 00:34:42
    because as that theme unfolds if you
  • 00:34:44
    look at the 90s there's always you know
  • 00:34:46
    each person will build on the person
  • 00:34:48
    that came before and you know Joe fam's
  • 00:34:50
    been on the show often I always like to
  • 00:34:51
    listen to what Joe says and and he talks
  • 00:34:53
    about how nowadays investor sentiment
  • 00:34:55
    shifts faster than before I feel also
  • 00:34:58
    you know um again with AI and all the
  • 00:35:01
    rest techn technology grows or changes a
  • 00:35:04
    lot faster than it did before so maybe
  • 00:35:05
    saying that the internet was a 10 12
  • 00:35:07
    year rollout we're probably G to see a
  • 00:35:09
    lot faster rapid change going on to new
  • 00:35:12
    names than we did in the 90s as well so
  • 00:35:14
    I think it's gonna be really interesting
  • 00:35:16
    the next few years yeah and and to that
  • 00:35:18
    point I mean there were so many in 2021
  • 00:35:22
    right there were all these IPOs spaxs
  • 00:35:25
    the special purpose acquisition
  • 00:35:26
    companies and and then 2022 that spot
  • 00:35:30
    dried up it was like nothing and it did
  • 00:35:33
    remind me of you know the internet kind
  • 00:35:35
    of thing where you saw the late 90s
  • 00:35:37
    everyone was coming out with IPO and
  • 00:35:39
    again slapping doc on their name and
  • 00:35:42
    that was their business plan and then
  • 00:35:44
    nothing it was just like this desert IPO
  • 00:35:47
    desert for a while so um how how closely
  • 00:35:51
    you're are you watching that IPO Market
  • 00:35:53
    as kind of like oh you know now the now
  • 00:35:56
    the next wave is kind of starting yeah
  • 00:35:59
    I'm watching that closely and I'm also
  • 00:36:01
    watching what companies uh that are a
  • 00:36:03
    little bit larger because if if you look
  • 00:36:04
    at all the you know Nvidia and all the
  • 00:36:07
    leaders so far are the biggest market
  • 00:36:09
    caps of the market there's going to be
  • 00:36:10
    rotation to new names IPO Market's going
  • 00:36:12
    to be really interesting because it's
  • 00:36:13
    been so quiet but at the same time you
  • 00:36:16
    know the money that's going to rotate
  • 00:36:17
    out of Nvidia won't necessarily want to
  • 00:36:19
    rotate into a very small cap or micro
  • 00:36:22
    cap you know IPO type of opportunity so
  • 00:36:25
    I think trying to look at who the key
  • 00:36:26
    winners are going to be have more
  • 00:36:28
    substantial market caps I think that's
  • 00:36:30
    probably going to be the next wave
  • 00:36:32
    because you know from from a consumer
  • 00:36:34
    perspective and an investor perspective
  • 00:36:36
    there's that trust Factor people have to
  • 00:36:37
    feel like okay you know we're actually G
  • 00:36:39
    to get something for this capex you know
  • 00:36:41
    this person's actually able to come to
  • 00:36:42
    markco with a a product that's gonna be
  • 00:36:45
    a real earnings driver in the future so
  • 00:36:47
    I'm looking at you know I think Elon
  • 00:36:49
    Musk again even something like the robo
  • 00:36:52
    taxi which he's going to unveil or
  • 00:36:53
    supposed to unveil October 10th that's
  • 00:36:56
    really an AI problem
  • 00:36:58
    and and you know if there's anyone who
  • 00:36:59
    has kind of that finger on the pulse of
  • 00:37:02
    a a future Tech I mean I think musk is
  • 00:37:05
    someone who could possibly solve that
  • 00:37:07
    it's a lot of wh ifs because the
  • 00:37:09
    products are not around yet but AI is
  • 00:37:10
    moving at such a Breakneck Pace um you
  • 00:37:13
    have to kind of start to anticipate you
  • 00:37:15
    know who could really be the big Winners
  • 00:37:16
    and and I think robot tax it could be
  • 00:37:18
    one uh Uber could also benefit they
  • 00:37:21
    recently signed a deal where they're
  • 00:37:22
    going to be um with GM as one of the
  • 00:37:25
    places where people can kind of uh hire
  • 00:37:28
    these uh autonomous vehicles to pick
  • 00:37:30
    them up or whatnot uh there's there's
  • 00:37:32
    some you know some small upstarts like
  • 00:37:33
    serve SCV they have like these kind of
  • 00:37:36
    Last Mile little delivery robotic type
  • 00:37:38
    Vehicles there's a lot of different kind
  • 00:37:39
    of interesting ways these real world AI
  • 00:37:42
    is going to start to come into play H
  • 00:37:44
    but I think musk is probably going to be
  • 00:37:46
    the first one that's going to be big
  • 00:37:48
    liquid and an opportunity for scale that
  • 00:37:50
    people are gonna be looking at so I
  • 00:37:51
    think that October 10th is going to be
  • 00:37:53
    really important to see how this AI is
  • 00:37:55
    coming to fruition in the real world
  • 00:37:57
    instead of just in theory so let let's
  • 00:38:00
    let's dive a little bit more into the
  • 00:38:01
    into the stocks and I I think it's again
  • 00:38:03
    such an interesting point that you're
  • 00:38:05
    making here um because um you know I
  • 00:38:08
    mean I think back to again if we use the
  • 00:38:10
    90s as an example it was it was very
  • 00:38:13
    different uh then because you had your
  • 00:38:17
    your market cap leaders were things like
  • 00:38:20
    Exxon Mobile you know I mean it was it
  • 00:38:23
    was uh it's hard to you know it's I saw
  • 00:38:26
    this um
  • 00:38:28
    I I I don't know where I saw it but it
  • 00:38:30
    it was really interesting it was kind of
  • 00:38:31
    like your your market cap leaders uh
  • 00:38:34
    your top 10 or 15 or something like that
  • 00:38:36
    over time and I was I was stunned to see
  • 00:38:40
    how many of the market cap leaders in
  • 00:38:43
    the 9s I mean it was it was a while
  • 00:38:45
    before you had like the the IBM the
  • 00:38:47
    Intel you know uh and again like the Dow
  • 00:38:50
    Jones Industrial Average even sometimes
  • 00:38:52
    it's kind of late to the game in terms
  • 00:38:54
    of oh we'll add you on and it's like oh
  • 00:38:56
    okay well yeah after the move is done
  • 00:38:59
    yeah but um let's talk about a little
  • 00:39:02
    bit more of the stocks I mean you you
  • 00:39:04
    you mentioned Tesla already and and I I
  • 00:39:06
    gotta I gotta say like there there are
  • 00:39:08
    certainly some of the things like um
  • 00:39:11
    even with SpaceX where when when I when
  • 00:39:13
    I first saw that like Falcon 9 like land
  • 00:39:16
    I I was like I got goosebumps I was like
  • 00:39:19
    oh my gosh you know how how does this
  • 00:39:21
    change things going forward and uh I
  • 00:39:25
    think you know some people were thinking
  • 00:39:26
    that with you know AI uh the the chat
  • 00:39:29
    GPT um and and starting to think of oh
  • 00:39:32
    what kind of different things can I do
  • 00:39:34
    with this and and seeing some of the i i
  • 00:39:38
    my my daughter is going to college and
  • 00:39:41
    I'm thinking of some of the ways in
  • 00:39:42
    which she can use AI to study that are
  • 00:39:46
    so I mean she can just hit record on a
  • 00:39:49
    lecture have ai come up with a whole
  • 00:39:52
    study guide for her um flashcards you
  • 00:39:55
    know all these different things it's
  • 00:39:56
    just you know I mean sometimes I think
  • 00:39:58
    unfair you know I wish I had that but um
  • 00:40:01
    so so back to Tesla a little bit so I
  • 00:40:04
    guess part of the problem sometimes is
  • 00:40:07
    the story can be so enticing you know
  • 00:40:10
    it's sometimes I get sucked in it's like
  • 00:40:12
    oh this is amazing I mean I was a I was
  • 00:40:13
    a big sci-fi fan when I was little you
  • 00:40:16
    know I I read hline and azimov and um
  • 00:40:19
    and you're you know I loved Back to the
  • 00:40:21
    Future when they go to 2015 and it's
  • 00:40:23
    like oh my gosh look at look at how the
  • 00:40:25
    future is you know so cool and stuff um
  • 00:40:29
    how do you kind of separate the story
  • 00:40:31
    between oh it's it's really happening
  • 00:40:33
    the investors are rewarding this and
  • 00:40:36
    it's not just
  • 00:40:37
    hype well first of all I know you know
  • 00:40:41
    obviously just hype alone is a negative
  • 00:40:43
    you have to produce something but if you
  • 00:40:44
    look at every cycle the really big
  • 00:40:46
    movers are always stocks that somewhat
  • 00:40:49
    kind of capture the imagination of
  • 00:40:50
    people for good or for bad like in in
  • 00:40:52
    the let's say going back to 1970s it was
  • 00:40:54
    really worry about OPEC and you know gas
  • 00:40:56
    lines and was what was on people's minds
  • 00:40:58
    or you know the the 90s the internet I
  • 00:41:00
    mean it was computers like a computer it
  • 00:41:02
    was it was really dramatic kind of stuff
  • 00:41:04
    so I I think Ai and looking at things
  • 00:41:07
    like an auto an autonomous vehicle does
  • 00:41:09
    capture the imagination and it has
  • 00:41:11
    incredible real world applications but
  • 00:41:13
    you know you can't just fall for hype
  • 00:41:15
    it's it's important so that I think
  • 00:41:18
    relative strength plays a part of a role
  • 00:41:20
    but I think this is also where you have
  • 00:41:23
    to understand what management is you
  • 00:41:24
    have to hear what they're articulating
  • 00:41:25
    if if they can't really show path to
  • 00:41:28
    profitability it's probably a stock
  • 00:41:30
    that's going to have a quick run and
  • 00:41:31
    then drop I mean the reason Nvidia you
  • 00:41:33
    know went up so far and is retained its
  • 00:41:35
    gains to date or got you know companies
  • 00:41:37
    like Microsoft and the rest is because
  • 00:41:39
    they've delivered those earnings
  • 00:41:40
    eventually so you know that's I think
  • 00:41:42
    where you have to dis delivered but like
  • 00:41:44
    went Way Beyond like smashed
  • 00:41:48
    expectations you but if you look at in
  • 00:41:50
    apple early like 2003 with iPod it was a
  • 00:41:53
    new invention like no one knew iPhone
  • 00:41:55
    was going to come around and iPad and
  • 00:41:56
    all this kind of stuff so at first it
  • 00:41:58
    was really okay we can see how music can
  • 00:42:00
    be changed and we can instead of a CD be
  • 00:42:02
    in a you know a a hard drive device
  • 00:42:04
    basically and and then after but you
  • 00:42:06
    know Steve Jobs was able to kind of do
  • 00:42:07
    it at scale profitably so again having
  • 00:42:10
    your pulse on what key themes could be
  • 00:42:12
    sometimes the move is enough it's
  • 00:42:14
    substantial enough where hey maybe they
  • 00:42:16
    never get to you know profitability but
  • 00:42:18
    it's a still a 200% move and that's
  • 00:42:20
    that's still a good enough of a trade
  • 00:42:21
    depends your your wheelhouse but I think
  • 00:42:23
    if you're more concerned this is where
  • 00:42:25
    again you can use relative strength to
  • 00:42:26
    find different winners and I think
  • 00:42:28
    another interesting stock is gev GE
  • 00:42:31
    Renova which is an energy generation
  • 00:42:33
    company there was a recent split GE
  • 00:42:35
    recently split into three companies
  • 00:42:37
    right and um I think that they're the
  • 00:42:39
    highest growth um company of the three
  • 00:42:42
    and they're just focused on electricity
  • 00:42:44
    generation they have the oil gas um
  • 00:42:45
    segment they have Renewables and they
  • 00:42:47
    also have small modular reactors which
  • 00:42:49
    is nuclear so they really basically
  • 00:42:51
    whatever whatever segment is going to
  • 00:42:53
    win in the future they have a hand in it
  • 00:42:54
    already and they're already profitable
  • 00:42:56
    they have big earnings uh growth coming
  • 00:42:58
    down the pipe and I just love a company
  • 00:43:01
    you know this goes back to um the book
  • 00:43:03
    you could be a stock market genius too
  • 00:43:04
    by uh Joel greenblat where he talks
  • 00:43:07
    about how you know spin-offs are a great
  • 00:43:10
    sign that management cares about
  • 00:43:11
    shareholders you know most CEOs just
  • 00:43:13
    want a bigger company to manage if they
  • 00:43:14
    went out of their way to break up a
  • 00:43:16
    company and have a smaller Kingdom to
  • 00:43:18
    rule over it's because they really think
  • 00:43:20
    it's in the best interest of what the
  • 00:43:21
    stocks can do so GE splitting into three
  • 00:43:24
    gives it more Focus uh it's young stock
  • 00:43:27
    but I think a lot of flows are going to
  • 00:43:28
    come its way I think it was just was
  • 00:43:29
    upgraded today by Jeff if I'm not
  • 00:43:31
    mistaken and I think there's a great way
  • 00:43:33
    you can play AI as a theme in regards to
  • 00:43:37
    it's just going to be more and more
  • 00:43:38
    electricity generation whether it's must
  • 00:43:41
    that pulls it off whether it's Invidia
  • 00:43:43
    selling more chips or whatever it is if
  • 00:43:45
    AI is going to be what people think it
  • 00:43:46
    will turn into we're going to need more
  • 00:43:48
    electricity and so I think G ver NOA is
  • 00:43:50
    an interesting way you can focus on
  • 00:43:52
    earnings and still be in that
  • 00:43:54
    Trend um yeah it's it's interesting that
  • 00:43:57
    you say that because you know I I I feel
  • 00:43:59
    like for a while there spin-offs were
  • 00:44:00
    kind of given a uh a short shrift
  • 00:44:03
    because it was kind of like oh you're
  • 00:44:04
    you're really trying to get rid of the
  • 00:44:06
    junkie stuff and you know it's it's like
  • 00:44:09
    okay this this this is just we'll look
  • 00:44:11
    better if we get rid of some of this
  • 00:44:12
    junkie stuff but in in the case of GE it
  • 00:44:14
    really was kind of like these are such I
  • 00:44:17
    mean GE was so many things I mean it was
  • 00:44:20
    in Diversified operations because it had
  • 00:44:23
    jet jet engines um it had uh NBC it had
  • 00:44:28
    you know light bulbs it had like you
  • 00:44:30
    know all these different things and now
  • 00:44:31
    it's kind of like oh you can kind of
  • 00:44:33
    understand a little bit more like oh
  • 00:44:35
    this is what this company does instead
  • 00:44:37
    of like oh it just does a little bit of
  • 00:44:38
    everything um yeah but uh you know to
  • 00:44:41
    that end um M 3M seems like it's kind of
  • 00:44:45
    taking a uh taking a page from the the P
  • 00:44:48
    the the the the Playbook of GE and you
  • 00:44:51
    know it just recently did a a spin-off I
  • 00:44:53
    do have a position in 3M myself um and
  • 00:44:56
    uh yeah it is interesting to see how
  • 00:44:59
    this kind of plays out from oh let's
  • 00:45:02
    consolidate consolidate and get as big
  • 00:45:03
    as possible and yeah you know now there
  • 00:45:06
    is some of these concerns as you
  • 00:45:07
    mentioned with Nvidia antitrust uh
  • 00:45:10
    Google antitrust right um is there kind
  • 00:45:13
    of another wave of hey you know you guys
  • 00:45:15
    are getting too big and you know if you
  • 00:45:18
    don't break yourselves up someone else
  • 00:45:21
    will uh kind of thing I'm thinking of
  • 00:45:23
    back in Theodore Roosevelt's days with
  • 00:45:25
    the you know with with with a STI you
  • 00:45:27
    know um but well you know going back to
  • 00:45:29
    the original uh trust that was broken
  • 00:45:31
    which was Standard Oil I mean it was the
  • 00:45:32
    big initial of case and and when those
  • 00:45:34
    companies were broken up all the big
  • 00:45:35
    oils we know today were all Standard Oil
  • 00:45:37
    originally yeah once they were broken up
  • 00:45:39
    they were much more valuable if you
  • 00:45:40
    added them all up broken up than when
  • 00:45:41
    they were conom that really unlocked a
  • 00:45:43
    lot of value that was kind of one of the
  • 00:45:44
    first case studies of how that worked
  • 00:45:46
    out and um so I mean but you know
  • 00:45:49
    whether it's Nvidia whether they're
  • 00:45:50
    broken up whether it's uh not that it's
  • 00:45:52
    going to happen tomorrow or anything but
  • 00:45:53
    whether AMD comes up with a competing
  • 00:45:55
    chip or or so if the end result is more
  • 00:45:58
    electricity generation because AI is
  • 00:46:00
    really solving real world problems then
  • 00:46:03
    someone like gev has the opportunity to
  • 00:46:06
    supply that electricity and you should
  • 00:46:07
    get continued earnings growth over the
  • 00:46:09
    coming years so I think gev is an
  • 00:46:10
    interesting way to play both a move into
  • 00:46:12
    utilities and that more secular AI theme
  • 00:46:15
    yeah um one more stock uh to cover and
  • 00:46:18
    and you know what I I really appreciate
  • 00:46:20
    the folks that did join us live um there
  • 00:46:22
    there's a few names that I recognize uh
  • 00:46:24
    you know from our ibid Live Crew uh so
  • 00:46:26
    some regulars there um you know some
  • 00:46:28
    people giving comments about uh looking
  • 00:46:31
    at Dan IES uh you know saying that hey
  • 00:46:33
    the AI theme you know Dan IV saying it's
  • 00:46:36
    bottom of the first top of the second
  • 00:46:38
    inning you know that's a lot of game
  • 00:46:40
    left to play here um uh you know folks
  • 00:46:43
    mentioning your your point about the
  • 00:46:44
    monetization I mean let's think about um
  • 00:46:47
    you know meta someone brought up you
  • 00:46:49
    know Facebook and you know this this is
  • 00:46:51
    an example we've used before but you
  • 00:46:53
    know if you go back to the original IPO
  • 00:46:57
    here it was you know it was a it was an
  • 00:47:00
    ugly start you know from the IPO even
  • 00:47:03
    though they had such market share yeah
  • 00:47:04
    it didn't matter until right here oh
  • 00:47:07
    guess what we know how to monetize this
  • 00:47:10
    now right and that that kind of changed
  • 00:47:12
    everything um so kind of a a big AI name
  • 00:47:18
    um is paler uh pltr and to your earlier
  • 00:47:22
    point about volatility I mean this you
  • 00:47:25
    know paler i' played it a few times and
  • 00:47:28
    I have not done well because right the
  • 00:47:31
    volatility a lot of times Shake shakes
  • 00:47:33
    me out if if I if I buy it on a pullback
  • 00:47:36
    I do much better if I buy it on a
  • 00:47:38
    breakout I'm I'm toast it's it's not
  • 00:47:40
    gonna happen uh because the volatility
  • 00:47:42
    just shakes me out so what what is it
  • 00:47:43
    about paler that you like so to your
  • 00:47:47
    point about volatility sometimes you
  • 00:47:48
    come to Market and the valuation is just
  • 00:47:50
    so excessive kind of like a meta it just
  • 00:47:52
    takes time for that to catch up and and
  • 00:47:54
    and as new Tailwinds build if you look
  • 00:47:56
    at at what paler has been doing uh they
  • 00:47:58
    partnered with the unit UK's Health uh
  • 00:48:01
    system a lot of other hospitals the way
  • 00:48:03
    they've been able to reduce weight times
  • 00:48:04
    and increase efficiencies in hospitals
  • 00:48:06
    those are real world case studies of how
  • 00:48:08
    AI can take big data and bring really
  • 00:48:11
    meaningful results and if you're going
  • 00:48:14
    to be bringing AI to a lot of companies
  • 00:48:16
    yeah upstart there's always going to be
  • 00:48:17
    room for new upstarts but if you're
  • 00:48:19
    large organizations and you want to
  • 00:48:20
    incorporate AI it's not like the
  • 00:48:22
    internet era where it at first was just
  • 00:48:24
    a website if you're going to have
  • 00:48:25
    something with your data you want
  • 00:48:26
    someone you can trust someone who can
  • 00:48:27
    get the right insights you want someone
  • 00:48:30
    at paler scale to pull that off um so I
  • 00:48:33
    think they have a big opportunity
  • 00:48:34
    they're already showing how they're
  • 00:48:35
    extracting real value from using Ai and
  • 00:48:38
    another Tailwind which is you know it's
  • 00:48:40
    it's not always what you want to see but
  • 00:48:41
    you know going back to um you know
  • 00:48:43
    what's going on around you in the world
  • 00:48:45
    the Peter Lynch Theory see what you see
  • 00:48:46
    in front of you if you look at the kind
  • 00:48:48
    of Russian Ukrainian War so much of that
  • 00:48:51
    has become like this drone Warfare oh
  • 00:48:53
    yeah and paler has just signed some
  • 00:48:54
    recent contracts with the US defense
  • 00:48:56
    department if you listen to the CEO I
  • 00:48:58
    mean he's very cognizant about which
  • 00:49:00
    countries are even allowed to use their
  • 00:49:02
    software for defense purposes so I mean
  • 00:49:04
    if you have a software that's in such
  • 00:49:05
    demand that you can choose who your
  • 00:49:07
    customers are going to be think of you
  • 00:49:09
    know race a Ferrari uh that's a good
  • 00:49:11
    example of someone who gets to choose
  • 00:49:12
    who their customers are that that really
  • 00:49:15
    uh yeah that really signals that you
  • 00:49:17
    have a product that brings value and so
  • 00:49:20
    again looking forward I think paler has
  • 00:49:21
    its fingers on both kind of consumer
  • 00:49:23
    applications and defense applications
  • 00:49:26
    and again if you look at that war and
  • 00:49:27
    how it's become kind of like a drone War
  • 00:49:30
    um and everything that everyone's
  • 00:49:32
    developing you know AI is going to be
  • 00:49:34
    needed for defense and consumers I think
  • 00:49:36
    paler is touching multiple themes I
  • 00:49:38
    think it's caught up a little bit in
  • 00:49:40
    terms of the valuation which was a
  • 00:49:41
    little bit overhot at um at the IPO and
  • 00:49:45
    also I think just AI is starting to grow
  • 00:49:47
    in a more mature way where they can
  • 00:49:49
    finally now you know kick off on new
  • 00:49:51
    trends and Lead that space whereas maybe
  • 00:49:53
    that was still a newer concept even
  • 00:49:56
    three or four years years ago so I think
  • 00:49:57
    paler and again in terms of relative
  • 00:50:00
    strength you're seeing this is leading
  • 00:50:02
    now this is still sitting near its highs
  • 00:50:04
    whereas stocks like Nvidia have broken
  • 00:50:06
    lower off of their
  • 00:50:08
    highs yeah um and and this is this is
  • 00:50:11
    one that really kind of seemed like it
  • 00:50:13
    um got a lot of institutional following
  • 00:50:16
    very very early on um you know it was
  • 00:50:20
    just not not that this matters that much
  • 00:50:23
    but I I'll share with you that one of
  • 00:50:24
    the things for a while there um if if
  • 00:50:27
    you wanted to write an article and you
  • 00:50:28
    wanted it to get a lot of hits paler was
  • 00:50:31
    the clickbait like I mean put paler in
  • 00:50:33
    the name and it didn't matter how bad
  • 00:50:36
    the chart looked you put paler on the
  • 00:50:37
    name and it was like your article's
  • 00:50:39
    gonna do okay you know kind of thing um
  • 00:50:41
    so to the point where you almost don't
  • 00:50:43
    want to bring up the symbol but when you
  • 00:50:44
    really see like a change of character
  • 00:50:46
    you know it's not bringing up the symbol
  • 00:50:48
    just for the sake of the symbol whereas
  • 00:50:49
    you can see like other times it was
  • 00:50:50
    clearly lagging the General market this
  • 00:50:52
    is one versus NASDAQ versus AI names
  • 00:50:55
    like you know this is holding up
  • 00:50:57
    stronger now recently so it's one one to
  • 00:50:59
    watch is I I do think they have like the
  • 00:51:00
    potential here so um in that regard do
  • 00:51:04
    you again because of its higher
  • 00:51:07
    volatility um how do you how do you kind
  • 00:51:10
    of do your entry on something like that
  • 00:51:13
    and I'm asking for a
  • 00:51:15
    friend you need to step lightly and
  • 00:51:17
    there there's never really a a perfect
  • 00:51:20
    solution but the way I build into um all
  • 00:51:23
    stocks is I never put on a full position
  • 00:51:25
    all at once I'll always uh you know if I
  • 00:51:27
    think it's a proper breakout I'll start
  • 00:51:28
    with a breakout or or you know paler I
  • 00:51:30
    bought this just recently on the
  • 00:51:31
    pullback at around 30 and a qu 30 just
  • 00:51:33
    around $30 a couple of days ago um and
  • 00:51:36
    so that's kind of like the first step in
  • 00:51:38
    if it's working and your profits are
  • 00:51:40
    building if this is going to be a big
  • 00:51:41
    big winner you're gonna have a lot of
  • 00:51:42
    opportunity so because the volatility so
  • 00:51:45
    high I I wait to get some profit cushion
  • 00:51:47
    then I use that to my you know to to
  • 00:51:50
    unlock the ability to add more money to
  • 00:51:51
    the stock just kind of plunging
  • 00:51:53
    aggressively in a stock like this can
  • 00:51:55
    can be a little bit more difficult so
  • 00:51:57
    that's kind of where a gev is where you
  • 00:51:59
    can get a little more aggressive out of
  • 00:52:00
    the gate with a stock like that versus a
  • 00:52:02
    paler yeah and um uh one one of our one
  • 00:52:05
    of our listeners right now was
  • 00:52:06
    mentioning that Joe fi kind of said a
  • 00:52:08
    similar thing you mentioned Joe FY
  • 00:52:10
    earlier and it was just basically like
  • 00:52:11
    yeah if you're gonna do follow if you're
  • 00:52:12
    going to do more volatile stocks you
  • 00:52:14
    know like paler uh you got to step
  • 00:52:16
    lightly you have to you know start with
  • 00:52:18
    smaller position sizes and um a few a
  • 00:52:21
    few people were also mentioning that
  • 00:52:22
    paler is one of the few stocks that have
  • 00:52:24
    caused them to use vow language um
  • 00:52:28
    I just break keyboards I just my closet
  • 00:52:30
    have like a bunch of keyboards take one
  • 00:52:32
    out plug it back in and we're good to go
  • 00:52:34
    right okay well hey Matt I gotta say
  • 00:52:36
    it's it's been a pleasure having you on
  • 00:52:38
    I really appreciate you being the guinea
  • 00:52:40
    pig it was great having uh having the
  • 00:52:42
    the comments up here I could kind of you
  • 00:52:44
    know check where people were at and um
  • 00:52:46
    what kind of things that they were
  • 00:52:47
    looking at so I really appreciate our
  • 00:52:48
    audience that tuned in live appreciate
  • 00:52:50
    the audience that's going to be looking
  • 00:52:51
    at this at the archive version too um
  • 00:52:54
    next week we're going to do this all
  • 00:52:55
    over again with a live showing we're
  • 00:52:57
    going to try this a few times uh see how
  • 00:52:59
    this uh plays out but uh Matt really
  • 00:53:01
    appreciate you coming on um and uh
  • 00:53:04
    joining me for this uh where can folks
  • 00:53:06
    get more information uh I I know that
  • 00:53:08
    you you put some great stuff out on on X
  • 00:53:11
    uh so uh please share your Twitter
  • 00:53:13
    handle with folks yeah I'm uh Trader M
  • 00:53:17
    Caruso and there's also my website
  • 00:53:19
    Caruso insight.com we actually just
  • 00:53:21
    relaunched this week with a mobile app
  • 00:53:23
    and a whole bunch of new features Market
  • 00:53:25
    alerts and all so put a lot of work into
  • 00:53:27
    that that past few months which I'm
  • 00:53:28
    excited about so plenty of information
  • 00:53:30
    there as well in the resources section
  • 00:53:32
    free uh free articles and just general
  • 00:53:34
    thoughts and I I should mention that
  • 00:53:36
    Matt some of your some of your videos
  • 00:53:38
    that you've done your educational videos
  • 00:53:39
    are are phenomenal uh there you know you
  • 00:53:42
    were a finance Professor for a while
  • 00:53:44
    again you already made the comment about
  • 00:53:45
    how 70s I wasn't even you know around
  • 00:53:48
    for that I you know that's that's
  • 00:53:49
    history to me but you know you you have
  • 00:53:52
    a great uh great Professor uh mentality
  • 00:53:57
    in terms of how you explain things and
  • 00:53:58
    it's something I really appreciate and
  • 00:54:00
    I've gained a lot of uh information from
  • 00:54:02
    you so thanks for sharing it with our
  • 00:54:03
    listeners um I really appreciate you
  • 00:54:05
    coming on and thanks again for being my
  • 00:54:07
    guinea pig anytime Justin thank you so
  • 00:54:09
    much I appreciate it okay that's gonna
  • 00:54:11
    wrap it up for us uh this segment um
  • 00:54:13
    this this this show uh I'm used to doing
  • 00:54:15
    segments typically but uh thank you so
  • 00:54:17
    much for watching uh next week we're
  • 00:54:19
    gonna have Harold Morris one of our
  • 00:54:21
    senior market surge product coaches he's
  • 00:54:23
    going to be on we're going to be doing
  • 00:54:25
    it live again next week so make sure you
  • 00:54:27
    kind of Mark on your calendar uh 5:00
  • 00:54:29
    p.m. Eastern 2:00 Pacific uh we can do
  • 00:54:32
    this all again I'm going to be watching
  • 00:54:34
    in the comments um and uh yeah we we're
  • 00:54:37
    gonna have a good time so Harold on next
  • 00:54:39
    week um Arusha is gonna be back uh a
  • 00:54:41
    couple weeks after that so uh he's he's
  • 00:54:44
    you know few people were asking about
  • 00:54:45
    him he's going to be back in a few weeks
  • 00:54:47
    um and also don't forget to like And
  • 00:54:49
    subscribe that really helps us out and
  • 00:54:51
    kind of lets us know that we're on the
  • 00:54:52
    right uh the right tack here with these
  • 00:54:55
    uh live streams um you can also get the
  • 00:54:57
    archive version at
  • 00:55:00
    www.investors.com
  • 00:55:01
    podcast and uh you know join the like
  • 00:55:05
    And subscribe of the podcast venue that
  • 00:55:08
    you prefer so uh thanks a lot for
  • 00:55:10
    watching this time around we'll see you
  • 00:55:12
    next week take care
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