Keynote address by Jean Tirole - 2019 Global forum on competition

00:33:12
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Rymb1TUpEE

摘要

TLDRThe speaker discusses the future of competition policy, emphasizing the current trend of reintroducing political primacy in public decision-making, which may allow for overruling competition authorities or excluding certain industries from competition policies. The speaker references the Alstom-Siemens merger, supporting the decision to block it to avoid market dominance. Concerns are raised about eroding central bank independence as part of this politicization trend. Further, the speaker highlights the value of agency independence for maintaining objectivity, stressing caution against overly politicized decision-making. Industrial policy is acknowledged for its potential to address market failures but is criticized for its challenges in information gathering and potential bias. The importance of maintaining a clear mission for agencies is stressed, avoiding the dilution of focus through political influences. Inequality should be managed through direct measures rather than interfering in each decision. The conclusion advocates for updated antitrust guidelines, caution in industrial policy, and maintaining due process, emphasizing the need for trust in competition authority expertise and independence.

心得

  • 🛡️ Emphasizing independent agency to avoid political influence in competition policy.
  • ⚖️ Ensuring fair processes and guidelines in competition and antitrust decision-making.
  • 🔍 Importance of clear mission for agencies to maintain focus and accountability.
  • 📉 Discussing the challenges and bias in implementing successful industrial policy.
  • 🏛️ The concern over politicization extending beyond competition policy including central bank independence.
  • 🌐 General acknowledgment that industrial policy can be warranted but should be carefully considered.
  • 🔄 Emphasizing the need for updated guidelines to handle new challenges like preemptive mergers.
  • 🧠 Highlighting the need for expertise and rational functions in policy-making to avoid biased decisions.
  • 🔧 Discussing the role of institutional investors and potential anti-competitive behavior in oligopolies.
  • 🌱 Advocating for inequality to be addressed separately through redistribution rather than within every public policy decision.

时间轴

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The video begins with an apology for not being present and introduces topics on competition policy's future. It suggests politics is reaffirming its role in public decision-making, effecting competition policies, especially in the industrial sector. There are proposals to grant broader missions to competition authorities, like stakeholder protection and environmental considerations, and instances like the Alstom-Siemens merger are discussed to highlight competition policy conflicts.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    The speaker reflects on the impact politics has on central banks and judiciary independence, aligning this with a broader theme of political primacy over expert institutions. The narrative discusses how politicians, influenced by the electorate's frustration over economic challenges, look for solutions that can sometimes undermine expert positions, such as with central banks after the 2008 financial crisis.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    The speaker argues for the importance of independent agencies and maintaining their sense of mission, highlighting potential conflicts if agencies are swayed by political motivations. The necessity of keeping agency missions focused and not diluted by external considerations like inequality or unemployment is emphasized, proposing these be addressed through other means such as redistribution and tax systems.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The discussion moves to industrial policy, distinguishing between non-targeted and more ambitious targeted policies. The speaker stresses challenges and successes of industrial policies, noting information and bias issues that can hinder effectiveness. The U.S. serves as a comparative model of effective industrial policies through institutions like DARPA, emphasizing independent high-level expertise and learning from both successes and failures in policy applications.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    The speaker delves into improving antitrust actions, focusing on the need for guidance rather than new laws. Instances like common ownership by institutional investors and best price guarantees are cited, arguing that existing laws, if guided properly, could address these antitrust concerns effectively. The importance of clear guidelines to prevent anti-competitive practices is highlighted.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:33:12

    The video concludes with thoughts on participative antitrust and the need for evolving guidelines and rules in collaboration with industries. Examples like patent pools illustrate how proactive policy-making can balance competitiveness with regulation. The speaker stresses the importance of competition policy independence and industrial policy's potential if due processes are respected, urging improvements in economic foundations and procedures.

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思维导图

视频问答

  • What recent changes have been suggested for competition policy?

    Recent suggestions include reaffirming the primacy of politics in decision-making and giving politicians the ability to overrule competition authorities.

  • How does the speaker view the Alstom-Siemens merger decision?

    The speaker agrees with the decision to block the merger, as it would have resulted in dominance in the signaling and high-speed rolling stock markets.

  • What is the speaker's opinion on central bank independence?

    The speaker supports central bank independence and sees its questioning as part of a broader trend towards political primacy.

  • What role do independent agencies play according to the speaker?

    Independent agencies help maintain focus and accountability, free from political lobbying and pressure.

  • Why is industrial policy making a comeback?

    Industrial policy is seen as a means to address market failures and foster targeted technological development.

  • What are the downsides of involving politics in competition policy?

    Political involvement can undermine agency independence and lead to decisions swayed by lobbying or short-term political gains.

  • How should governments handle inequality in policy-making?

    Governments should address inequality through targeted redistribution and social programs, not through each policy decision.

  • What is the speaker's view on cluster development?

    Clusters can be effective for innovation and industry growth due to shared information and local labor markets.

  • What suggestions does the speaker make for improving antitrust guidelines?

    Guidelines need to be designed that allow active investment by institutional investors without anti-competitive practices.

  • What does the speaker suggest for handling preemptive mergers?

    The burden of proof should be shifted to incumbents to justify mergers that have potential anti-competitive concerns.

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  • 00:00:02
    well good morning and first I would like
  • 00:00:04
    to apologize for not being with you
  • 00:00:06
    today but I would like to share some
  • 00:00:08
    thoughts with you about the future of
  • 00:00:10
    competition policy as you all know there
  • 00:00:14
    have been recent suggestion to reaffirm
  • 00:00:16
    the primacy of politics in public
  • 00:00:18
    decision-making so for example in the
  • 00:00:21
    industrial domain have been proposals to
  • 00:00:24
    be sure those proposals have stopped
  • 00:00:26
    short of calling for return to all style
  • 00:00:29
    ministerial decision making but they may
  • 00:00:33
    put competition authorities on a tight
  • 00:00:35
    leash by either conferring on politician
  • 00:00:39
    the ability to overrule the competition
  • 00:00:42
    authorities decisions or by excluding
  • 00:00:45
    industries of firms from the scope of
  • 00:00:48
    competition policy they may also grant
  • 00:00:51
    broader missions to competition
  • 00:00:52
    authorities like stakeholder protection
  • 00:00:56
    take care of the employment environment
  • 00:00:59
    may be to some industrial policy in
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    Europe as you know we have lived through
  • 00:01:06
    the apps aftermath of the Alstom Siemens
  • 00:01:09
    melodrama they were pros of course to
  • 00:01:14
    allow the merger the biggest company in
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    China operates in a large and logic
  • 00:01:19
    closed market and there was his worry
  • 00:01:22
    that his Chinese firm will actually
  • 00:01:25
    become dominant in Europe and by the way
  • 00:01:27
    there is this issue about using
  • 00:01:30
    competition policy or industrial policy
  • 00:01:32
    as a second best instrument I mean if
  • 00:01:35
    there is a prime with a storm and
  • 00:01:37
    Siemens access to a Chinese market you
  • 00:01:40
    will expect this to be dealt who the WTO
  • 00:01:43
    dispute resolution mechanism I grant
  • 00:01:47
    that it is very slow but you know you
  • 00:01:49
    will seeing that actually that will be
  • 00:01:51
    the right channel to actually deal with
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    this issue and there was all this talk
  • 00:01:55
    about rail bus in quotes by analogy with
  • 00:02:00
    Airbus except that it has a very
  • 00:02:01
    different rationale in the case of
  • 00:02:03
    Airbus that was many about preventing
  • 00:02:06
    Boeing from becoming a monopolist in the
  • 00:02:09
    air manufacturing
  • 00:02:11
    airplane manufacturing now the comm is
  • 00:02:15
    of course that also means Siemens at
  • 00:02:17
    least in the short run will have been
  • 00:02:20
    totally dominant in signaling system and
  • 00:02:22
    I speed rolling stocks in the open
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    market I haven't studied in detail my
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    gut feeling is that actually the
  • 00:02:32
    Commissioner was right in preventing the
  • 00:02:34
    murderer but again haven't studied that
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    in detail what I would like to emphasize
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    is my reaction to the french-german
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    proposal giving the Member State the
  • 00:02:44
    ability to overhaul the competition
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    authority in for mergers or also
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    decision and by the way the European
  • 00:02:53
    Union doesn't really block many mergers
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    actually very few and in some sort of
  • 00:02:58
    manage probably should block more now
  • 00:03:02
    let me put that into the broader context
  • 00:03:04
    which is a populations disarray and we
  • 00:03:08
    see now in every country the populist
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    using narrative to exploit very
  • 00:03:13
    effective narratives to exploit the
  • 00:03:16
    frustration of the electorate that maybe
  • 00:03:20
    about the financial crisis the eurozone
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    crisis the rise of unemployment a
  • 00:03:25
    slowdown of economic growth
  • 00:03:29
    declining social status for the middle
  • 00:03:31
    class inequality and so on
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    and of course many people fear the
  • 00:03:36
    future they are worried about climate
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    change are worried about AI and robots
  • 00:03:41
    actually taking their job and many other
  • 00:03:44
    things maybe debt in some countries and
  • 00:03:46
    unfounded pensions is a concern now
  • 00:03:51
    politicians themself in disarray because
  • 00:03:54
    they react of course to the electorate
  • 00:03:56
    so people dismiss experts they won't
  • 00:04:01
    change they look for someone was a plan
  • 00:04:04
    and of course a political market is
  • 00:04:07
    going to respond to this demand is
  • 00:04:09
    responding to this demand
  • 00:04:11
    now this revisionism as I call it you
  • 00:04:15
    know the idea of you know installing
  • 00:04:17
    back the primary primacy of politics is
  • 00:04:21
    not specific to competition policy
  • 00:04:24
    take central banks for example central
  • 00:04:27
    bank independence is called into
  • 00:04:29
    question in many countries like India
  • 00:04:31
    the u.s. turkey in Europe and to be
  • 00:04:35
    certain there is a fascinating
  • 00:04:37
    facilitating factor central banks after
  • 00:04:40
    2008 had no choice but engaging in
  • 00:04:45
    unconventional money monetary policies
  • 00:04:47
    which has a big financial impact and
  • 00:04:50
    they got closer to the political
  • 00:04:52
    decision-making in that way that's an
  • 00:04:55
    issue and of course politician
  • 00:04:57
    politicians have noticed and it's very
  • 00:04:59
    tempting for that for them to use a
  • 00:05:00
    central bank as a tool of of policy in
  • 00:05:06
    some countries even the judiciary is
  • 00:05:08
    actually its independence is actually
  • 00:05:11
    questioned so what I'm saying is that
  • 00:05:14
    the questioning of competition of
  • 00:05:17
    authority in the parents is actually
  • 00:05:18
    part of a broader movement in favor of
  • 00:05:21
    the primacy of politics the politicians
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    other responses are also problematic
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    sometimes in some countries they pass it
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    back so for example they ask cooperation
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    to substitute for government of course
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    there is nothing wrong with cooperation
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    doing socially responsible investment we
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    like that but in essence socially
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    responsible investment is really the
  • 00:05:46
    centralized approach and especially it's
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    vain Congress for governments who do not
  • 00:05:51
    dare to have any carbon price or very
  • 00:05:54
    low carbon prices to ask businesses to
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    to behave as if they were a carbon price
  • 00:06:01
    sugan issue is that governments tend to
  • 00:06:05
    pretend to act when they are not acting
  • 00:06:08
    window-dressing greenwashing we add that
  • 00:06:11
    with cop21 for example which had a lot
  • 00:06:15
    of ambition but very little in terms of
  • 00:06:17
    concrete actions vague promises and in
  • 00:06:21
    the case of a green fund actually a
  • 00:06:23
    collective promise which we know never
  • 00:06:25
    works and now we have a pride
  • 00:06:28
    counterpart to it which is a statement
  • 00:06:30
    in 2019 of the Business Roundtable
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    saying we should take into account other
  • 00:06:35
    goals and just
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    which is perfectly fine but if again if
  • 00:06:39
    you look at the number of concrete
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    actions there are very few now sometimes
  • 00:06:45
    government acts and but when they act
  • 00:06:49
    they may use an a mister approach on
  • 00:06:51
    very complex systems so that's what we
  • 00:06:55
    call in the case of the environment
  • 00:06:57
    command and control it might be in this
  • 00:07:00
    role policy in some countries
  • 00:07:03
    administrative layoff control and so on
  • 00:07:06
    and on principle there is nothing wrong
  • 00:07:08
    with that
  • 00:07:09
    except that all those policies rely on
  • 00:07:13
    the government having information or the
  • 00:07:16
    officials having information that they
  • 00:07:18
    don't have so governments must be
  • 00:07:20
    handled them as design policies which
  • 00:07:23
    fit with a kind of information that
  • 00:07:25
    officials have I think given the the
  • 00:07:30
    recent trend is very important to stress
  • 00:07:36
    rational functions independence and by
  • 00:07:39
    the way independent agencies are never
  • 00:07:42
    independent their mission the principles
  • 00:07:46
    always controlled by the politicians and
  • 00:07:48
    the Parliament can always intervene to
  • 00:07:52
    overturn that the policies and Hall not
  • 00:07:55
    in each and every instance and that's
  • 00:07:58
    actually what we don't want we don't
  • 00:07:59
    want the politicians having a lobby
  • 00:08:02
    pushing behind intervening in a specific
  • 00:08:05
    instance now politics and that's the
  • 00:08:09
    role of politics and you are not blaming
  • 00:08:11
    politicians but they are subject to
  • 00:08:13
    every lobbying they pander to the
  • 00:08:16
    electorate they want to be elected and
  • 00:08:19
    that's why after all we had entre Banky
  • 00:08:22
    independence in the first place we make
  • 00:08:24
    central bank's independent because we
  • 00:08:26
    wanted to tame inflation and later on
  • 00:08:29
    because we wanted to have a tougher
  • 00:08:31
    Prudential supervision West politicians
  • 00:08:35
    are vaguer to be related and that's
  • 00:08:37
    leads to credit booms and inflation same
  • 00:08:41
    thing with regulating telecoms or
  • 00:08:44
    electricity or railroads we have created
  • 00:08:47
    in the independencies
  • 00:08:49
    oh we have put churches in charge so in
  • 00:08:53
    the in in the u.s. there was no
  • 00:08:56
    precision because the utilities public
  • 00:08:59
    utilities actually were private started
  • 00:09:02
    in 1900 but of course it was very
  • 00:09:05
    tempted for a politician to reduce a
  • 00:09:07
    prices so as to be popular but that went
  • 00:09:11
    again to investment by those utilities
  • 00:09:13
    in infrastructure which are very big
  • 00:09:15
    investment so what was done in the US
  • 00:09:18
    was actually to have the church protect
  • 00:09:21
    investments of the utilities against the
  • 00:09:25
    pandering of politicians to the voters
  • 00:09:30
    so that's the first reason about why we
  • 00:09:33
    want to have agency independence as a
  • 00:09:35
    second reason which which is a little
  • 00:09:38
    bit more complicated but it's true that
  • 00:09:40
    agencies often with more expertise just
  • 00:09:43
    think about the number of economic PhDs
  • 00:09:46
    or other PhDs in competition authorities
  • 00:09:49
    they usually have more expertise than
  • 00:09:53
    ministries it doesn't have to be the
  • 00:09:56
    case but it's often the case now that's
  • 00:09:58
    important for another reason I'm going
  • 00:10:00
    to come to an agency a government agency
  • 00:10:03
    must have a sense of mission the
  • 00:10:06
    government is by sense the ultimate
  • 00:10:09
    stakeholder Society that's its role
  • 00:10:11
    there is nothing wrong with that but
  • 00:10:14
    that makes incentives way they are to to
  • 00:10:17
    set up because the mission is multiple
  • 00:10:19
    and possibly fuzzy
  • 00:10:22
    what is this agency trying to accomplish
  • 00:10:25
    which makes it difficult for that the
  • 00:10:28
    act or process to all officials
  • 00:10:30
    accountable for their performance they
  • 00:10:32
    of course issues with information of the
  • 00:10:35
    voters they issue with the understanding
  • 00:10:37
    by the voters but also if you have
  • 00:10:40
    multiple mission what kind of mission
  • 00:10:43
    was the government stressing it's
  • 00:10:45
    difficult now agency in contrast sicán
  • 00:10:49
    and the need to develop a sense of
  • 00:10:51
    mission in my view conglomerate agencies
  • 00:10:55
    don't do that well and actually a
  • 00:10:58
    well-managed agency may actually resist
  • 00:11:00
    being granted new tasks
  • 00:11:02
    because it's going to lose its end of
  • 00:11:04
    mission and then I come back to the idea
  • 00:11:07
    that actually you need professionals and
  • 00:11:10
    experts because those professionals was
  • 00:11:15
    narrow specialists are instrumental in
  • 00:11:17
    creating the sense of mission internally
  • 00:11:20
    and externally at achieving Interpol
  • 00:11:24
    consistency what other people who call
  • 00:11:26
    legal certainty and you know we don't
  • 00:11:30
    know that much about the missions of
  • 00:11:32
    agencies but you know the agency series
  • 00:11:35
    that exists such as that having a clear
  • 00:11:37
    mission having advocates for certain
  • 00:11:40
    causes actually creates a focus and
  • 00:11:43
    accountability which is very much
  • 00:11:46
    missing in the case of of governments
  • 00:11:48
    and again that's not their fault because
  • 00:11:50
    they are the ultimate stakeholder
  • 00:11:52
    society now those missions should not be
  • 00:11:57
    tainted by each and every consideration
  • 00:12:00
    you don't want to pull you it an
  • 00:12:02
    agency's mission through consideration
  • 00:12:05
    that can be dealt with through other
  • 00:12:07
    instruments proper instruments okay it
  • 00:12:11
    may be complex in some cases but you
  • 00:12:13
    know it's very important to realize that
  • 00:12:14
    you you want to have this sense of
  • 00:12:18
    mission and mission should not be
  • 00:12:20
    polluted by other consideration if
  • 00:12:22
    possible so for example inequality is a
  • 00:12:26
    very big issue nowadays but if you start
  • 00:12:30
    putting inequality consideration in
  • 00:12:32
    every public policy choice then you
  • 00:12:35
    completely lose the focus it's much
  • 00:12:38
    better to deal with inequality through
  • 00:12:40
    redistribution through better schools
  • 00:12:43
    who good our system but when you talk
  • 00:12:46
    about global warming sure the poor might
  • 00:12:49
    be hurt by carbon tax but then you
  • 00:12:52
    redistribute you have an energy check or
  • 00:12:54
    something like that and you compensate
  • 00:12:56
    those people so that they don't suffer
  • 00:12:58
    too much but if you don't have a carbon
  • 00:13:00
    price the planet is doomed same thing if
  • 00:13:05
    you think about tobacco taxation lots of
  • 00:13:08
    poor smoke so you might say we should
  • 00:13:11
    not have a tax on tobacco but that's the
  • 00:13:14
    wrong attitude we need a tax on
  • 00:13:16
    to evacuate to discourage smoking and
  • 00:13:19
    then we deal with inequality in other
  • 00:13:21
    ways same thing you don't want to ever
  • 00:13:25
    each and every decision to be based on
  • 00:13:28
    the consequences on unemployment okay
  • 00:13:33
    because again you don't have any sense
  • 00:13:35
    of mission you don't know what you are
  • 00:13:36
    doing anymore you'd rather take care of
  • 00:13:39
    an employment in other ways through
  • 00:13:41
    incentives have been ever advocating
  • 00:13:43
    experience rating for example work you
  • 00:13:47
    know worker protection when they fell
  • 00:13:49
    unemployed but not adding a job
  • 00:13:52
    protection mission in each and every
  • 00:13:55
    public policy and so on and so forth I
  • 00:13:58
    go could go on but you have to keep this
  • 00:14:01
    sense of mission next let me talk a
  • 00:14:04
    little bit about Industrial Policy
  • 00:14:05
    because it's clearly making a comeback
  • 00:14:07
    nowadays and just to tell you what I
  • 00:14:10
    mean by industrial policy I've used two
  • 00:14:15
    types of interventions addressing market
  • 00:14:17
    failures the first is what I will call
  • 00:14:21
    humble interventions or non targeted
  • 00:14:23
    policies so the government is not trying
  • 00:14:27
    to choose winners and losers you just
  • 00:14:31
    give incentives that's the example of a
  • 00:14:33
    carbon price that I was mentioning
  • 00:14:35
    earlier you don't presume you could
  • 00:14:38
    reduce pollution and we should not be
  • 00:14:41
    reducing pollution you just don't know
  • 00:14:43
    you don't bet on a specific technology
  • 00:14:47
    for green technologies you just give a
  • 00:14:50
    chance to every possibility and you just
  • 00:14:53
    give a carbon price incentive same thing
  • 00:14:56
    with R&D subsidies you know there are
  • 00:14:58
    big speed over sovereignty so you're
  • 00:15:00
    encourage R&D through subsidies but they
  • 00:15:02
    are kind of uniform or explains rating
  • 00:15:05
    where you tax firms that lay off the
  • 00:15:09
    workers and you don't have a churchman
  • 00:15:11
    about whether this firm should do it or
  • 00:15:13
    should not do it industrial policy by
  • 00:15:17
    contrast is more ambitious but it's also
  • 00:15:20
    more fragile those are policies that are
  • 00:15:23
    gated towards specific sectors
  • 00:15:25
    technology or even firms and that
  • 00:15:29
    requires
  • 00:15:29
    information that's going to be our
  • 00:15:31
    challenge now in this world policy has
  • 00:15:35
    good foundations that prose and are
  • 00:15:38
    strong arguments in flavor so think for
  • 00:15:42
    example about a cluster a cluster is
  • 00:15:45
    going to allow startups in a given
  • 00:15:48
    environment and universities to share
  • 00:15:50
    information if you have read Saxon Ian's
  • 00:15:54
    book for example on Silicon Valley the
  • 00:15:57
    sharing of information is very important
  • 00:15:59
    all the stories about Steve Jobs going
  • 00:16:02
    to Xerox PARC and noticing all those
  • 00:16:04
    discoveries and it's true that much of
  • 00:16:08
    what you have on your iPad on your
  • 00:16:09
    iPhone actually comes from the research
  • 00:16:12
    at Xerox PARC so you share information
  • 00:16:16
    there is some collective learning by
  • 00:16:19
    doing and very importantly something
  • 00:16:22
    that people often forget is that you
  • 00:16:24
    have a local labor market because
  • 00:16:26
    startups are meant to fail many startups
  • 00:16:30
    should fail that's part of the dynamics
  • 00:16:33
    of the industry there's a risk to be
  • 00:16:35
    taken and if it doesn't work you you
  • 00:16:37
    should down but that means also that the
  • 00:16:40
    entrepreneur and they're the
  • 00:16:41
    collaborators they lose their job and
  • 00:16:44
    it's much nicer of course if they can
  • 00:16:46
    find a job locally and of course if
  • 00:16:49
    you're a cluster that's much easier than
  • 00:16:51
    if you have only one firm in this
  • 00:16:53
    particular town doing this kind of
  • 00:16:55
    business then in terms of public R&D as
  • 00:16:58
    we have seen in the US for example you
  • 00:17:01
    have industry spillovers from public R&D
  • 00:17:04
    and of course that's good for the
  • 00:17:05
    industry as well and sometimes they also
  • 00:17:07
    are reasons I already mentioned the case
  • 00:17:09
    of Airbus where the primary reason to
  • 00:17:11
    start Airbus was actually to prevent
  • 00:17:14
    Boeing from becoming a monopolist and
  • 00:17:17
    that's a global public good now why is
  • 00:17:20
    that given that they are good reason to
  • 00:17:23
    do in the sole policy why is there so
  • 00:17:25
    little support from economists as a
  • 00:17:27
    whole on average so you can use a old
  • 00:17:31
    maxim the steak picks winners the losers
  • 00:17:35
    picks a state and in France we have had
  • 00:17:39
    lots of examples like this we have
  • 00:17:42
    plenty of example
  • 00:17:43
    of where this happened but this evidence
  • 00:17:46
    somehow is kind of in a total and you
  • 00:17:50
    know what should we conclude out of that
  • 00:17:51
    it's not very scientific and conversely
  • 00:17:54
    the people who are in favor of initial
  • 00:17:56
    policy they will they will cite one or
  • 00:17:59
    two success stories but that's not
  • 00:18:00
    scientific either now why don't they
  • 00:18:05
    work sometimes well I told you that
  • 00:18:09
    initial policy requires information if
  • 00:18:12
    you have an incumbent incompetent and
  • 00:18:14
    informed state it's going to choose the
  • 00:18:15
    wrong technology the wrong firms and
  • 00:18:20
    it's biased to so again in France we
  • 00:18:23
    have had lots of examples like that
  • 00:18:24
    where the choices in this world choices
  • 00:18:27
    which were made we're there to protect
  • 00:18:29
    incumbents as opposed to being the right
  • 00:18:32
    choices diesel for example is something
  • 00:18:35
    we are paying for now
  • 00:18:37
    and often boss so you go to - I've been
  • 00:18:42
    in those meetings where the minister has
  • 00:18:45
    said we need 34:12 industrial plans
  • 00:18:48
    priority programs tell us which ones and
  • 00:18:51
    of course all the lobbies come in
  • 00:18:54
    nobodies inform about anything except is
  • 00:18:56
    our specialty and it's just a lobbying
  • 00:19:00
    activity with absolutely no information
  • 00:19:02
    to assess what should be done but they
  • 00:19:06
    are success to success is - so an
  • 00:19:09
    interesting role model actually is the
  • 00:19:11
    u.s. you will not expect the u.s. to be
  • 00:19:13
    a role model for individual policy with
  • 00:19:16
    DARPA who is the NIH with NSF and you
  • 00:19:21
    know much of what has happened in
  • 00:19:22
    information technologies and biotech in
  • 00:19:25
    the u.s. whether their leaders actually
  • 00:19:27
    come from industrial policy so what is
  • 00:19:31
    that that it right in my book economics
  • 00:19:34
    for the common good I make eight
  • 00:19:36
    recommendation the first is kind of
  • 00:19:38
    obvious think about the market failure
  • 00:19:41
    we have to know what we are trying to do
  • 00:19:43
    and why we are intervening the second is
  • 00:19:46
    to use independent independent
  • 00:19:49
    high-level experts and you give them a
  • 00:19:52
    lot of discretion that's what DARPA has
  • 00:19:54
    done it's not easy because you have to
  • 00:19:55
    find I love our expert
  • 00:19:57
    also independent I by and large you give
  • 00:20:00
    them this question and that's also the
  • 00:20:02
    way peer reviewed panels work the third
  • 00:20:06
    recommendation is to look at both supply
  • 00:20:09
    and demand you often have a demand which
  • 00:20:12
    is legitimate
  • 00:20:13
    so municipality or region wants to have
  • 00:20:17
    a cluster in cancer in biotech or in
  • 00:20:21
    green energies but they rarely ask
  • 00:20:24
    whether they have what it takes to make
  • 00:20:27
    it happen so do I have the scientists
  • 00:20:30
    who are going to bring students we're
  • 00:20:32
    going to start startups and is it going
  • 00:20:35
    to happen it's not because you have a
  • 00:20:37
    building and and money that you'll be
  • 00:20:40
    successful that's what I call the field
  • 00:20:43
    of dream mentality the field of dream
  • 00:20:45
    mentality comes from this movie in which
  • 00:20:48
    giving Costner was playing and you know
  • 00:20:51
    voice saying that if he builds a
  • 00:20:53
    baseball field then the players will
  • 00:20:56
    come now in the middle of Iowa now in
  • 00:21:00
    the movie
  • 00:21:01
    Shoeless Joe Jackson comes of course and
  • 00:21:03
    the others come but in the real world
  • 00:21:05
    they don't so you need to have the
  • 00:21:08
    players who are going to make it happen
  • 00:21:10
    then you recommend a mesh recommendation
  • 00:21:14
    or before you adopt a competitively
  • 00:21:15
    neutral policy five you don't preach
  • 00:21:19
    Church a solution you set an objective
  • 00:21:21
    the Appa was also very good at doing
  • 00:21:24
    that you don't decide which green
  • 00:21:27
    technology is going to win six is
  • 00:21:31
    obvious but rarely done you a varied
  • 00:21:33
    programs exposed and when they don't
  • 00:21:36
    work you stop them it's very important
  • 00:21:39
    also to redistribute the money to more
  • 00:21:42
    successful on top taking so you have to
  • 00:21:45
    stop there is no shame in stopping you
  • 00:21:50
    involve the price sector in which taking
  • 00:21:52
    so as to avoid what elephant and since
  • 00:21:54
    I'm a lobby you strengthen universities
  • 00:21:56
    but I'm serious here too because if you
  • 00:21:58
    have strong universities you can also
  • 00:22:01
    have startups around those universities
  • 00:22:04
    so let me conclude with a few notes
  • 00:22:05
    about improving antitrust this is not
  • 00:22:09
    easy I'm not going to give you
  • 00:22:11
    deep inside we don't need new laws we
  • 00:22:16
    need more guidance so take an example
  • 00:22:19
    which is common ownership by
  • 00:22:21
    institutional investors as you all know
  • 00:22:24
    in the u.s. in particular Blackrock and
  • 00:22:28
    State Street and many others actually
  • 00:22:32
    are owning all the firms in an oligopoly
  • 00:22:35
    in the airline business in the banking
  • 00:22:37
    business and so on and of course there
  • 00:22:39
    is danger that because they are active
  • 00:22:42
    investors they actually intervene in
  • 00:22:44
    Garland's to prevent firms competing on
  • 00:22:48
    each other's territories or they they're
  • 00:22:50
    going to use absolute performance
  • 00:22:52
    evaluation instead of colleges balanced
  • 00:22:54
    evaluation which is conducive to more
  • 00:22:56
    competition and so on and so forth it's
  • 00:22:59
    called a cartel we already have the laws
  • 00:23:03
    starting with a harmonic starting with
  • 00:23:06
    section 7 of the Clayton Act we don't
  • 00:23:11
    need new laws what we need is guidelines
  • 00:23:13
    because Blackrock and fidelity and all
  • 00:23:17
    those institutional investors have to
  • 00:23:19
    know what they can do and cannot do they
  • 00:23:21
    want to diversify and that's why also
  • 00:23:23
    they buy shares in many firms or
  • 00:23:26
    securities in many fronts wont charlie
  • 00:23:30
    so one possibility is you tell them you
  • 00:23:33
    have to be passive that's no good
  • 00:23:35
    because precisely you count on them to
  • 00:23:39
    be active in governance and monitored
  • 00:23:42
    monitor management you can use legal
  • 00:23:45
    challenges but it's complicated because
  • 00:23:47
    whether you do guilty of being in a
  • 00:23:49
    cartel depends on what the other people
  • 00:23:51
    do as well like other investors too so
  • 00:23:54
    it's it's very hard to do
  • 00:23:56
    maybe impose some limits on
  • 00:23:58
    diversification so for example some have
  • 00:23:59
    proposed - you can invest on in one firm
  • 00:24:02
    car industry you lose a little bit in
  • 00:24:04
    terms of diversification but not that
  • 00:24:06
    much whatever what we need has an
  • 00:24:10
    economics profession is actually to
  • 00:24:12
    design better guidelines to help those
  • 00:24:14
    firms actually be active investor in the
  • 00:24:17
    industry without violating antitrust so
  • 00:24:21
    on example best price guarantee so M
  • 00:24:24
    offense
  • 00:24:24
    and most favored nation closes now we
  • 00:24:27
    all know now after a few years of
  • 00:24:29
    research that best price guarantees have
  • 00:24:33
    the potential to be anti-competitive so
  • 00:24:36
    they're love platforms to tax their
  • 00:24:38
    competitors through a single price of
  • 00:24:40
    fees pass through not only to the
  • 00:24:43
    customers of a platform but also to to
  • 00:24:47
    the customer for other platforms or
  • 00:24:49
    direct customer of of the hotels or the
  • 00:24:51
    Airlines and so on so we don't like best
  • 00:24:54
    price guarantees at the same time we
  • 00:24:57
    must recognize that they also have
  • 00:24:59
    virtues so for example there's what's
  • 00:25:03
    called showrooming you don't want me to
  • 00:25:07
    go to booking.com and find the hotel I
  • 00:25:10
    want and then because it's a little bit
  • 00:25:12
    cheaper on the hotel website then leave
  • 00:25:15
    booking.com and actually go to the hotel
  • 00:25:19
    website because then i expropriate
  • 00:25:21
    booking.com from its investment there
  • 00:25:24
    also that's when you have low search
  • 00:25:26
    across its lazy for me to switch
  • 00:25:29
    conversely if when you have a I search
  • 00:25:30
    costs most favored nation causes also
  • 00:25:34
    prevents our charging we have seen that
  • 00:25:36
    in credit cards so we need better
  • 00:25:40
    guidelines so so far what we have done
  • 00:25:42
    is structural interventions in France
  • 00:25:45
    and Germany in the UK in Sweden in
  • 00:25:48
    Europe more generally we have private in
  • 00:25:51
    narrow or broad M offense it's just a
  • 00:25:56
    rough policy in principle we would like
  • 00:25:58
    to set price gap it would be more
  • 00:26:00
    efficient but we don't have the
  • 00:26:03
    guidelines for that partly because
  • 00:26:06
    academics is lagging behind now in the
  • 00:26:09
    case of payment card in the Euro we
  • 00:26:11
    found a rule which is called a tourist
  • 00:26:13
    test which basically kept them the
  • 00:26:15
    merchants fee at the merchants
  • 00:26:19
    convenience benefit but that's only one
  • 00:26:21
    particular industry in which we are
  • 00:26:24
    found a way of dealing with a non
  • 00:26:26
    structural intervention example three
  • 00:26:29
    preemptive mergers so something we are
  • 00:26:32
    very worried about right now is
  • 00:26:36
    incumbents buying up all the
  • 00:26:38
    startups which in turn may actually lead
  • 00:26:45
    to entry for buyouts so basically the
  • 00:26:47
    startup and purchase to blackmail in
  • 00:26:49
    combat by me otherwise I will compete
  • 00:26:52
    and this is really something that
  • 00:26:55
    doesn't create social value so there's
  • 00:27:00
    been potential suppression of price
  • 00:27:02
    competition for example in the case of
  • 00:27:04
    the purchase of Instagram and whatsapp
  • 00:27:05
    by Facebook sometimes the product itself
  • 00:27:09
    may even be surprised so the that's
  • 00:27:12
    called a killer acquisition there is
  • 00:27:13
    some evidence of that in the
  • 00:27:15
    pharmaceutical industry and that
  • 00:27:19
    obviously is something that is
  • 00:27:21
    anti-competitive another cost of that is
  • 00:27:25
    that it directs innovation to what me to
  • 00:27:28
    innovation so me two innovations are
  • 00:27:31
    really can be quite profitable because
  • 00:27:35
    you are purchased by the incumbent and
  • 00:27:37
    you know you make money out of that
  • 00:27:39
    without creating social value
  • 00:27:41
    now-now-now it's impossible actually to
  • 00:27:45
    challenge such mergers because there is
  • 00:27:46
    no evidence Instagram and whatsapp had
  • 00:27:49
    already sold anything they were not
  • 00:27:51
    quite doing the same thing as Facebook
  • 00:27:53
    same thing some some of those drugs or
  • 00:27:57
    molecules actually haven't been tested
  • 00:28:00
    yet they may not have even gone through
  • 00:28:02
    the FDA approval process so any
  • 00:28:05
    competition just cannot tell whether
  • 00:28:07
    it's an anti-competitive merger so the
  • 00:28:09
    proposal which i think is really is
  • 00:28:11
    reasonable but has its own dangers is to
  • 00:28:15
    shift the burden of proof in that kind
  • 00:28:17
    of merger to incumbents so whenever you
  • 00:28:21
    have an incumbent buying someone with
  • 00:28:23
    actually doing something similar
  • 00:28:26
    early in the process so that you cannot
  • 00:28:28
    have any evidence of anti-competitive
  • 00:28:30
    behavior then it's up to the incumbent
  • 00:28:34
    actually to prove that's a good merger
  • 00:28:35
    but that requires a fair amount of trust
  • 00:28:38
    in the antitrust authorities but I don't
  • 00:28:40
    see any other way around so that will be
  • 00:28:44
    shifting the burden of proof to the main
  • 00:28:47
    firms early in the product life cycle we
  • 00:28:49
    may want to improve process
  • 00:28:52
    we all know the drawbacks of standard
  • 00:28:55
    approaches self-regulation is of course
  • 00:28:59
    self-serving competition policy is too
  • 00:29:03
    slow too late
  • 00:29:04
    utility regulation is mostly infeasible
  • 00:29:07
    for the tech industry because those
  • 00:29:11
    firms are global so they cannot be
  • 00:29:14
    regulated by a single regulator because
  • 00:29:16
    you don't follow them along the
  • 00:29:18
    lifecycle so it's completely different
  • 00:29:21
    you cannot just supply public utility
  • 00:29:22
    regulation to the big tech companies the
  • 00:29:26
    way we have done it for telecom
  • 00:29:28
    railroads or electricity companies and
  • 00:29:30
    then individual policy of course which
  • 00:29:33
    I've discussed at length so what we may
  • 00:29:36
    want to try to to achieve is some kind
  • 00:29:38
    of participative antitrust where the
  • 00:29:42
    industry and experts I should have added
  • 00:29:44
    expert here actually make proposal to
  • 00:29:46
    the competition authority and the
  • 00:29:48
    competition Authority reacts through
  • 00:29:51
    Business Review Letters evolving
  • 00:29:53
    guidelines rules but for that of course
  • 00:29:56
    the competition policy must admit that
  • 00:29:58
    it may be wrong so you know it is my gut
  • 00:30:01
    feeling is what I think at the T but at
  • 00:30:04
    the tip less then I'm an octopus wanna
  • 00:30:07
    may I make a change my mind that gives
  • 00:30:11
    more flexibility that minimizes legal
  • 00:30:13
    runs and seventy and you use industries
  • 00:30:17
    information and IDs but of course in an
  • 00:30:20
    independent way my favorite case of that
  • 00:30:23
    is pattern pools
  • 00:30:24
    I mean the work that do tree in the US
  • 00:30:26
    has done on pattern pools and then other
  • 00:30:29
    agencies as well is remarkable because
  • 00:30:32
    we know that pattern pool has a huge
  • 00:30:35
    potential actually be pro competitive
  • 00:30:37
    and reduce price but there can also be
  • 00:30:38
    anti-competitive and this competition
  • 00:30:41
    within the IP owner industry can be
  • 00:30:46
    dangerous so the idea of the DOJ which
  • 00:30:49
    which has been improved since is
  • 00:30:50
    basically say okay that's fine but you
  • 00:30:53
    do XY and Z and then that becomes
  • 00:30:56
    guidelines so that's a very good example
  • 00:30:59
    of what I think is a good policy let me
  • 00:31:02
    give you another example collective knee
  • 00:31:04
    goes
  • 00:31:05
    creation in mobile payments what had
  • 00:31:08
    providers they control the near-field
  • 00:31:11
    control so there are kind of bottleneck
  • 00:31:14
    and the card issuer in that case has
  • 00:31:18
    very little bargaining power
  • 00:31:20
    maybe the platform develops a reputation
  • 00:31:22
    for not negotiating
  • 00:31:24
    maybe this column will retry oming or
  • 00:31:27
    whatnot so the solution which has been
  • 00:31:30
    implemented in Canada or China is
  • 00:31:33
    basically collective negotiation it
  • 00:31:36
    makes sense but you I'm sure everybody
  • 00:31:38
    in the room feels uneasy about that why
  • 00:31:41
    because there is a possibility of
  • 00:31:45
    anti-competitive boycott which is of
  • 00:31:47
    course prohibited by section 1 of the
  • 00:31:50
    Sherman Act or article 101 in Europe the
  • 00:31:53
    process therefore must be approve and
  • 00:31:56
    supervise it just like for patent pools
  • 00:31:58
    it can be dangerous
  • 00:32:00
    but it can be also very useful
  • 00:32:02
    regulatory sandbox is another example
  • 00:32:05
    where we try thing we learn by doing I
  • 00:32:07
    think we have to be humble and this
  • 00:32:11
    approach I think is a better approach
  • 00:32:12
    but the of course it requires a lot of
  • 00:32:15
    trust in the expertise and the
  • 00:32:17
    independence of antitrust authorities so
  • 00:32:20
    let me conclude here and with a couple
  • 00:32:22
    of take-home points competition policy
  • 00:32:26
    independence is worth fighting for it
  • 00:32:30
    has to be earned and we have to improve
  • 00:32:33
    we the antitrust practitioners the
  • 00:32:36
    academics everyone has to try to
  • 00:32:38
    contribute to improve the economic
  • 00:32:41
    foundation and the procedures as for
  • 00:32:45
    individual policy it can be considered
  • 00:32:46
    there is nothing wrong theoretically
  • 00:32:48
    with that but if you want to do it you
  • 00:32:51
    must respect due process and this due
  • 00:32:54
    process by the way may require
  • 00:32:56
    independence thank you very much for
  • 00:32:59
    your attention I wish you a very very
  • 00:33:02
    productive conference thank you
标签
  • competition policy
  • political primacy
  • industrial policy
  • central bank independence
  • agency independence
  • antitrust
  • Alstom-Siemens merger
  • inequality policy
  • market failures
  • institutional investors