The Great Interest Rate SuperCycle.

00:05:04
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9U2bJcPlns0

摘要

TLDR裁量交易员Fred Krueger讨论了利率政策变化对金融市场的重大影响，尤其是将利率从5.38%削减至低于3%的可能性。根据市场预测，这种变化可能会导致对风险资产的投资激增，从而推动股票、房地产、债券、比特币和黄金的价格上涨。他对比特币持乐观态度，预计到2025年底价格可能达到20万美元。然而，Krueger建议不要使用杠杆来进行投资。

心得

  • 📉 利率政策的变化对金融市场至关重要。
  • 🔍 预计未来一年利率将从5.38%降至低于3%。
  • 📈 低利率可能导致风险资产价格上涨，如股票和房地产。
  • 🪙 比特币可能在2025年达到200,000美元。
  • 💼 投资比特币时，建议不使用杠杆。
  • 📊 黄金价格已超过每盎司2,600美元，显示强劲需求。

时间轴

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:04

    L'oratore, ex trader di obbligazioni, discute l'importanza cruciale della politica dei tassi d'interesse e del prossimo ciclo di tassi, definendo il periodo come il 'super ciclo dei tassi d'interesse'. Attualmente i tassi d'interesse sono al 5,38%, con previsioni di un taglio tra 25 e 50 punti base. Si nota una previsione del mercato che indica un calo dei tassi sotto il 3% entro il 2025. Questo slancio potrebbe spingere verso asset a rischio come azioni, immobili e criptovalute, compreso Bitcoin, che potrebbe raggiungere valutazioni notevoli entro la fine del 2025.

思维导图

Mind Map

常见问题

  • Why is this video called 'the great interest rate super cycle'?

    The video is discussing the significant changes anticipated in interest rates, which could drastically affect financial markets.

  • What is the importance of interest rate policy according to the speaker?

    Interest rate policy is crucial as it affects various financial markets, including equities, bonds, real estate, and cryptocurrencies.

  • What is the expected interest rate change mentioned in the video?

    The video mentions a potential interest rate cut from the current 5.38% to below 3% over the next year.

  • How will lowering interest rates affect money market funds and risk assets?

    Lowering interest rates will likely lead to a movement towards risk assets, causing rises in equities, real estate, bonds, Bitcoin, and gold.

  • What is the significance of gold trading above $2,600 per ounce?

    It indicates a potential increase in value due to rising demand, as seen with increasing purchases by countries like China.

  • What are the speaker's predictions for Bitcoin by the end of 2025?

    The speaker predicts Bitcoin could reach $200,000, potentially three to four times higher than its current value.

  • Does the speaker recommend using leverage for investing in Bitcoin?

    The speaker advises against using leverage, suggesting a heavy allocation to Bitcoin without leverage for better risk management.

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  • 00:00:00
    hey guys it is Friday September 13th
  • 00:00:03
    bitcoin's at 40
  • 00:00:07
    59,4 and uh this episode is uh going to
  • 00:00:10
    be called the great um the great
  • 00:00:13
    interest rate super cycle now as you
  • 00:00:16
    guys know I used to be a bond Trader and
  • 00:00:20
    uh that meant I watched interest rates
  • 00:00:23
    like crazy um and one of my one of my
  • 00:00:27
    nicknames was Fred Krueger the MC
  • 00:00:29
    because I traded a ton of us uh uh
  • 00:00:34
    interest rate Futures uh in particular
  • 00:00:36
    liore Futures on the uh Chicago mertile
  • 00:00:40
    Exchange and they would always be
  • 00:00:41
    calling Fred Krueger the mer pickup to
  • 00:00:44
    close my trades at the end of the day
  • 00:00:46
    and so I'd have to be come in I'd be
  • 00:00:48
    like okay did was that one yours was
  • 00:00:50
    that one yours that one yours that one
  • 00:00:51
    yours because I would be buying and
  • 00:00:54
    selling so many euro dollar Futures so
  • 00:00:56
    the Euro dollars is is something that I
  • 00:00:59
    trade did a lot of I was very very
  • 00:01:02
    involved in you know interest rates and
  • 00:01:06
    I got to tell you this is the most
  • 00:01:09
    important thing in the world is what is
  • 00:01:12
    interest rate policy and is uh Marty Z
  • 00:01:16
    who uh was sort of a icon in the stock
  • 00:01:19
    market for a long time and you can check
  • 00:01:21
    out his old books winning on Wall Street
  • 00:01:23
    was one of his books Marty always said
  • 00:01:25
    don't fight the fed and uh I think you
  • 00:01:30
    cannot underestimate how
  • 00:01:32
    important this next cycle is going to be
  • 00:01:35
    we are at 5 and 38 right now in interest
  • 00:01:39
    rates and uh we are going to have
  • 00:01:42
    somewhere between a 25 and a 50 basis
  • 00:01:44
    point rate cut um next Wednesday and uh
  • 00:01:50
    and we're going to be having some
  • 00:01:51
    discussion as to the Future Path of
  • 00:01:53
    interest rates but I think the most
  • 00:01:56
    important thing is if you look at where
  • 00:01:58
    fed fund Futures are trading and I was
  • 00:02:01
    just opened that up today and I was just
  • 00:02:04
    oh my God interest rates are 5 and 38
  • 00:02:08
    the Futures on interest rates on in
  • 00:02:11
    December of
  • 00:02:13
    2025 are at
  • 00:02:16
    um 97 19 which says that the interest
  • 00:02:22
    rate that people are betting on the
  • 00:02:24
    prediction market for interest rates is
  • 00:02:26
    effectively 280 280 so we are the
  • 00:02:30
    Market's telling us we're going
  • 00:02:32
    from 55% interest rates to something
  • 00:02:36
    below 3% in a year that that is a
  • 00:02:39
    massive massive move okay and uh when
  • 00:02:44
    you have $4 trillion in Money Market
  • 00:02:47
    funds they're just sitting there when
  • 00:02:50
    you have $200 bill trillion dollar worth
  • 00:02:53
    of bonds out there and you lower
  • 00:02:56
    interest rates from 5 and 38 to
  • 00:03:00
    below 3% which is what is going to
  • 00:03:03
    happen you're going to have a flight to
  • 00:03:06
    risk assets what does that mean that
  • 00:03:08
    means equities go up that means real
  • 00:03:12
    estate goes up okay that means
  • 00:03:16
    um bonds go
  • 00:03:18
    up and that means Bitcoin goes up and I
  • 00:03:24
    and and and it also means gold goes up
  • 00:03:26
    and we're starting to see that gold
  • 00:03:28
    today for the first time ever first time
  • 00:03:31
    ever trading above $2,600 per ounce um
  • 00:03:36
    and that really should tell you because
  • 00:03:38
    there's no Mount gaau of gold there's
  • 00:03:40
    nobody there's no Germany selling uh
  • 00:03:43
    their gold reserves in fact it's the
  • 00:03:45
    exact oppos it China is buying tons of
  • 00:03:47
    gold and I think this is going to happen
  • 00:03:50
    to bitcoin but even even more right so
  • 00:03:54
    we are in a potentially absolutely
  • 00:03:57
    explosive um scenario for
  • 00:04:00
    2025 uh really starting really starting
  • 00:04:03
    after this election but for the next the
  • 00:04:06
    next 12 months could be just absolutely
  • 00:04:09
    explosive on the upside for
  • 00:04:12
    Bitcoin um you know I I definitely think
  • 00:04:16
    something like 200,000 is is definitely
  • 00:04:19
    in the cards for end of 2025 we could be
  • 00:04:22
    at something like three to four times
  • 00:04:24
    higher than where we are now I think
  • 00:04:27
    it's going to be an absolutely amazing
  • 00:04:30
    using uh risk return I would not play it
  • 00:04:35
    with too much leverage um if you want to
  • 00:04:38
    have any leverage at all I prefer no
  • 00:04:40
    leverage I always prefer no leverage uh
  • 00:04:43
    but I I think you should be heavily
  • 00:04:46
    allocated to bitcoin I think it's going
  • 00:04:48
    to do extremely well so that's my little
  • 00:04:51
    uh video for today if you follow me on
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    YouTube please hit the Subscribe button
  • 00:04:56
    it helps my reach on YouTube and again
  • 00:04:59
    thanks for following me and uh I'll
  • 00:05:02
    catch you soon
标签
  • interest rates
  • bitcoin
  • financial markets
  • investment
  • gold
  • risk assets
  • equities
  • real estate