How the U.S. population size is expected to change

00:06:47
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEVyLfOMzpA

الملخص

TLDRThe video discusses the changing demographics of the U.S. population, particularly focusing on the influence of immigration. The Census Bureau's estimates suggest that without significant immigration, the population may peak at 346 million by 2043 and decline to 319 million by 2100. In contrast, with higher immigration, the population could rise to 435 million. The video also highlights the aging population, where by 2029, older individuals will surpass children under 18, leading to economic implications, including a decreased proportion of workers to retirees. It explores the potential need for policy changes and better education to prepare future workers to support an older population, drawing comparisons to trends observed in Europe and potential societal changes in response to these demographic shifts.

الوجبات الجاهزة

  • 📊 U.S. population around 335 million.
  • ✈️ Immigration is key for future growth.
  • 📉 Without immigration, population could drop to 319 million by 2100.
  • 👵🏼 Aging population leads to fewer workers per retiree.
  • 📅 By 2029, elder population surpasses under-18s.
  • 💰 Economic impacts from declining working-age ratio.
  • 📚 Stronger education needed for future productivity.
  • ⚖️ Similar demographic challenges faced by Europe.
  • 🗳️ Possible shifts in retirement age discussions in U.S.
  • 🔮 Expectation of working longer into old age.

الجدول الزمني

  • 00:00:00 - 00:06:47

    The current U.S. population is approximately 335 million, with its growth largely dependent on immigration. Future estimates indicate that if immigration remains high, the population could reach 435 million by 2100. Conversely, if immigration declines, projections show a peak at 346 million by 2043, before dropping to 319 million by the century's end. The Census Bureau highlights immigration as the pivotal factor for U.S. population trends, as native-born citizens decline due to natural decrease and aging. By 2029, the elderly population is projected to surpass that of children under 18, leading to a reduced working-age percentage and economic implications. Europe faces similar demographic shifts, prompting challenges like retirement age debates in countries such as France.

الخريطة الذهنية

فيديو أسئلة وأجوبة

  • What is the current U.S. population estimate?

    About 335 million people.

  • What is the primary factor influencing U.S. population growth?

    Immigration is the single most influential factor.

  • How will the population change by 2100 if immigration levels change?

    Without immigration, the population could decline to 319 million by 2100.

  • What is natural decrease?

    Natural decrease refers to more deaths than births among native-born citizens.

  • What percentage of the U.S. population will be of working age in the future?

    An estimated 60% will be of working age, down from current levels.

  • What are some challenges posed by an aging population?

    Fewer working-age individuals to support the retired population and potential tax income deficits.

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الترجمات
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التمرير التلقائي:
  • 00:00:00
    DECADES AS PART OF CHANGING
  • 00:00:05
    DEMOGRAPHICS.
  • 00:00:05
    WE DIG INTO THE REASONS WHY.
  • 00:00:07
    >> THIS IS FASCINATING.
  • 00:00:08
    YOU ARE LIKELY ON THIS BOARD.
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    ONE OF THESE PEOPLE.
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    THIS IS THE U.S. POPULATION AT
  • 00:00:13
    THIS MOMENT.
  • 00:00:15
    ABOUT 335 MILLION PEOPLE.
  • 00:00:21
    WHETHER THE POPULATION GROWS OR
  • 00:00:22
    SHRINKS DEPENDS ON ONE THING.
  • 00:00:23
    IT MAY SURPRISE YOU.
  • 00:00:27
    IMMIGRATION.
  • 00:00:27
    THE CENSUS BUREAU'S MOST RECENT
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    ESTIMATE THE POPULATON WILL
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    CONTINUE TO GROW ROUGHLY 20/80.
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    AND REACH 370 MILLION.
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    IT EXPECTS A DECLINE TO 366
  • 00:00:39
    MILLION BY 2100.
  • 00:00:40
    IF THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
  • 00:00:42
    IMMIGRATION OVER THE NEXT
  • 00:00:44
    SEVERAL DECADES, THE POPULATION
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    WOULD CONTINUE INCREASING
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    WITHOUT ANY DECLINE THROUGH
  • 00:00:49
    2100 UP TO 435 MILLION.
  • 00:00:55
    WHAT IF IMMIGRATION DIPS ?
  • 00:00:59
    THERE WOULD BE A NOTICEABLE
  • 00:01:00
    CONTRACTION TO THE U.S.
  • 00:01:01
    POPULATION.
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    IT WOULD PEAK AT 346 MILLION BY
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    2043 AND THAT'S 34 YEARS
  • 00:01:08
    EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
  • 00:01:09
    SCENARIO.
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    IT DROPS TO 319 MILLION BY
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    2100.
  • 00:01:17
    WHAT DOES THIS MEAN ? THE
  • 00:01:18
    CENSUS BUREAU FINDS IMMIGRATION
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    IS THE SINGLE MOST INFLUENTIAL
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    FACTOR IN SHAPING THE FUTURE OF
  • 00:01:24
    THE U.S. POPULATION.
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    FOREIGN BORN INDIVIDUALS HAVE
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    BECOME A LARGE PERCENT OF THE
  • 00:01:31
    POPULATION AND HELPED TO KEEP
  • 00:01:33
    OVERALL GROWTH RATES STEADY.
  • 00:01:34
    THAT'S BECAUSE THE NUMBER OF
  • 00:01:37
    NATIVEBORN U.S. CITIZENS IS
  • 00:01:38
    SLOWLY DECREASING.
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    THERE ARE MORE U.S.-BORN
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    AMERICANS DYING AND BEING BORN.
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    THAT'S A PHENOMENON KNOWN AS
  • 00:01:48
    NATURAL DECREASE.
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    AS THE U.S. POPULATION AGES,
  • 00:01:51
    FOLKS ARE HAVING FEWER
  • 00:01:52
    CHILDREN.
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    THE CENSUS BUREAU'S ESTIMATES
  • 00:02:00
    ALL THE FOLKS WILL SURPASS KIDS
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    UNDER 18 BY 2029.
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    THAT'S AROUND THE CORNER.
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    THIS IS A KEY NUMBER.
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    THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAVE 60 %
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    OF THE POPULATION AT WORKING
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    AGE.
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    THAT'S 5 % LESS THAT THE
  • 00:02:13
    CURRENT WORKING AGE THAT WILL
  • 00:02:14
    HAVE IMPACTS ON TAX INCOME AND
  • 00:02:20
    THE HEALTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY.
  • 00:02:21
    THE U.S. HAS NOT GONE THROUGH
  • 00:02:23
    THIS CHANGE ALONE.
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    EUROPE ALSO SEEING A
  • 00:02:24
    SIGNIFICANT AGENT OF ITS
  • 00:02:25
    POPULATION PARTIALLY WHAT
  • 00:02:26
    MOTIVATED THE FRENCH PRESIDENT
  • 00:02:29
    TO ATTEMPT TO RAISE THE
  • 00:02:33
    RETIREMENT AGE WHICH WAS A
  • 00:02:34
    CONTROVERSIAL ISSUE.
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    JOINING US NOW THE PROFESSOR OF
  • 00:02:41
    POLICY PLANNING AND DEMOGRAPHY
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    AT THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN
  • 00:02:42
    CALIFORNIA.
  • 00:02:43
    IT'S GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US.
  • 00:02:48
    WHAT EFFECTS WOULD A SHIFTING
  • 00:02:49
    POPULATION HAVE ON THE UNITED
  • 00:02:50
    STATES OVERALL ?
  • 00:02:53
    >> OVERALL MAYBE FEWER CARS ON
  • 00:02:54
    THE ROAD.
  • 00:02:55
    THAT WOULD BE A POSITIVE
  • 00:02:56
    BENEFIT.
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    THE REAL ISSUE IS THE RATIOS
  • 00:02:58
    BETWEEN THE OLDER AND YOUNGER
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    AGE GROUPS.
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    THE BABY BOOMERS ARE GETTING
  • 00:03:04
    OLDER.
  • 00:03:04
    THEY ARE RETIRING AND HAVE A
  • 00:03:06
    RIGHT TO RETIRE.
  • 00:03:08
    WE ARE BECOMING TOP-HEAVY IN
  • 00:03:09
    THE POPULATION.
  • 00:03:09
    WE NEED TO HAVE ENOUGH WORKING
  • 00:03:13
    AGED PEOPLE UNDERNEATH THE
  • 00:03:14
    RETIREES TO SUPPORT THEM.
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    IT USED TO BE WE HAD IT
  • 00:03:18
    POPULATION.
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    AMID WITH YOU PEOPLE AT THE TOP
  • 00:03:21
    AND A WIDE RACE AT THE BOTTOM.
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    THE LATEST NUMBERS SHOW THE
  • 00:03:25
    BOTTOM IS SHRINKING SO WE ARE
  • 00:03:29
    BECOMING TOP-HEAVY.
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    THAT IS NOT WELL.
  • 00:03:35
    WE ARE USED TO HAVING A BASE OF
  • 00:03:36
    WORKERS WHO CAN PAY SOCIAL
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    SECURITY AND OTHER TAX FUNDS TO
  • 00:03:42
    SUPPORT THE OLDER POPULATION.
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    THE REAL ISSUE IS WE HAVE TWICE
  • 00:03:46
    AS MANY OLDER PEOPLE AND NO
  • 00:03:51
    GROSS IN THE WORKING AGE.
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    THAT'S MAKING IT LOPSIDED.
  • 00:03:56
    >> I WANT TO DIG IN ABOUT THIS
  • 00:03:57
    QUESTION OF IMMIGRATION.
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    IT'S A DIVISIVE ISSUE AMONG
  • 00:03:59
    LAWMAKERS BUT ALSO HIGHLIGHTING
  • 00:04:00
    THE REASONS WHY GIVEN THE
  • 00:04:01
    CURRENT TREND IN U.S.
  • 00:04:04
    POPULATION THAT THEY ARE
  • 00:04:05
    ESSENTIAL TO BROADENING OUT THE
  • 00:04:07
    TAX BASE.
  • 00:04:09
    IF LAWMAKERS DECIDED TO CURTAIL
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    IMMIGRATION IN A BIG WAY, WOULD
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    THERE BE ANY ALTERNATIVES TO
  • 00:04:16
    INCREASING THE POPULATION AND
  • 00:04:19
    COVERING THOSE TAXES FOR THE
  • 00:04:20
    OLDER AMERICANS ?
  • 00:04:23
    >> WE SHRINK THE IMMIGRATION
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    WHIC WOULD BE A HIT ON OUR
  • 00:04:27
    DOCTORS AND SURGEONS AND ALSO
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    OUR HEALTHCARE WORKERS.
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    WE HAVE A PRACTICAL PROBLEM.
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    WHAT WE COULD DO -- YOU HAVE TO
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    HAVE EVERY WORKING AGE ADULT
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    WILL HAVE TO SUPPORT A HEAVIER
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    LOAD OF OLDER PEOPLE.
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    THE ONLY WAY THAT WORKS IN MY
  • 00:04:53
    VIEW IS IF WE FORTIFY THEM WITH
  • 00:04:54
    STRONGER EDUCATION TODAY.
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    THEY WILL BE MORE PRODUCTIVE
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    LIVE AS THEY BECOME WORKERS.
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    THEY CAN CARRY THE HEAVIER
  • 00:05:06
    LOAD.
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    THAT'S THE ONLY PRACTICAL WAY.
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    YOU CAN'T STOP AGING.
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    OLDER PEOPLE WILL RETIRE AND
  • 00:05:09
    THE KIDS WILL GROW UP AND
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    BECOME WORKING AGE.
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    WE WANT TO FORTIFY THEM TO BE
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    THE BEST WORKERS THEY CAN BE.
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    THEN THEY CAN LIVE A MORE
  • 00:05:21
    LUXURIOUS LIFESTYLE AS
  • 00:05:24
    CONSUMERS HAVING BETTER INCOMES
  • 00:05:26
    BECAUSE OF THEIR BETTER JOBS
  • 00:05:28
    AND EDUCATION THAT WE SET THEM
  • 00:05:29
    UP FOR TODAY.
  • 00:05:34
    PLANNING AHEAD, WE HAVE TO
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    FORTIFY THE CHILDREN OF TODAY
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    TO CARRY THE LOAD OF TOMORROW.
  • 00:05:38
    >> THESE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ARE
  • 00:05:38
    FASCINATING.
  • 00:05:39
    AS WE WATCHED UNFOLD IN FRANCE,
  • 00:05:42
    THE PRESIDENTS EFFORT TO RAISE
  • 00:05:43
    THE RETIREMENT AGE WERE
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    EXTREMELY CONTROVERSIAL.
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    IT LED TO MONTHS OF STREET
  • 00:05:50
    PROTESTS.
  • 00:05:50
    DO YOU IMAGINE WE COULD SEE
  • 00:05:51
    SIMILAR MOVES IN THE U.S. SO IT
  • 00:05:53
    CAN ADAPT TO AN OLDER
  • 00:06:00
    POPULATION.
  • 00:06:01
    >> IT'S ALREADY HAPPENING.
  • 00:06:03
    PEOPLE ARE RETIRING MORE
  • 00:06:03
    SLOWLY.
  • 00:06:04
    THE EARLIEST RETIREMENT AGE
  • 00:06:08
    OCCURRED IN 1984.
  • 00:06:08
    EVER SINCE THEN, PEOPLE HAVE
  • 00:06:09
    BEEN WORKING LONGER.
  • 00:06:14
    THAT WILL CONTINUE.
  • 00:06:14
    AS WE SHIFT TO THE ECONOMY,
  • 00:06:20
    THESE JUDGES AND LAWYERS AND
  • 00:06:22
    PROFESSORS WORK UNTIL THEY ARE
  • 00:06:25
    80.
  • 00:06:25
    THAT WILL BE HAPPENING MORE
  • 00:06:29
    NATURALLY WITHOUT REQUIRING
  • 00:06:30
    PEOPLE TO WORK LONGER.
  • 00:06:35
    WE SHOULD EXPECT THAT WILL BE
  • 00:06:36
    THE NORM GOING FORWARD.
  • 00:06:38
    >> THE YOUNG SOCIAL MEDIA
  • 00:06:41
    INFLUENCES FROM TODAY WILL BE
  • 00:06:42
    WORKING INTO THEIR 80s AND 90s.
  • 00:06:45
    WHAT A FASCINATING FUTURE.
الوسوم
  • Immigration
  • Population Growth
  • Demographics
  • Census Bureau
  • Natural Decrease
  • Aging Population
  • Working Age
  • Economic Impact
  • Retirement
  • Tax Income