How The Cellphone Market Is Transforming | CNBC Marathon
الملخص
TLDRThe video explores the evolution of smartphone manufacturing, highlighting the shift from U.S. dominance to reliance on China, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. It discusses the decline of BlackBerry, which transitioned from hardware to software, focusing on cybersecurity and IoT. The rise of 'dumb phones' among younger generations, driven by mental health concerns, is also examined. The video emphasizes the challenges of reviving U.S. manufacturing, including high labor costs and a lack of skilled labor, while noting recent government initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act aimed at boosting domestic production.
الوجبات الجاهزة
- 📉 BlackBerry's decline due to failure to adapt to touchscreen technology.
- 🏭 U.S. manufacturing has shifted to China, raising concerns about supply chains.
- 📱 The rise of dumb phones as a response to mental health issues.
- 💡 Purism's Librem 5 U.S.A. is the only smartphone made in the U.S.
- 📊 The CHIPS and Science Act aims to revitalize American manufacturing.
- 🌍 Smartphone usage is growing in developing countries despite the prevalence of feature phones.
- 🧠 Younger generations are increasingly concerned about smartphone addiction.
- 🔧 High labor costs and lack of skilled labor hinder U.S. manufacturing revival.
- 🔒 BlackBerry has pivoted to cybersecurity and IoT software after exiting hardware.
- 📈 The automotive IoT sector presents growth opportunities for BlackBerry.
الجدول الزمني
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
The consumer electronics industry is shifting focus towards revitalizing American manufacturing, especially after the supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. BlackBerry's stock has drastically fallen from its peak, reflecting the changing landscape of smartphone usage in America, where 85% of the population now owns a smartphone. Despite this, there is a growing interest in 'dumb phones' as some consumers seek alternatives to smartphones.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
China has dominated the manufacturing market, surpassing the U.S. in output since 2010. The U.S. is now looking to bring manufacturing back home, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and batteries. However, tech giants like Apple and Alphabet continue to rely on overseas production, raising questions about the feasibility of manufacturing smartphones in the U.S.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
The history of U.S. manufacturing technology shows a decline since the 1960s, with many companies outsourcing production to countries like China. The current supply chain for smartphone manufacturing is heavily reliant on foreign labor, with companies sending engineers abroad to oversee production. This reliance complicates the push for domestic manufacturing.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
Instrumental, a startup founded to improve manufacturing oversight, highlights the challenges of moving production back to the U.S. Despite some companies like Apple shifting some production to India, the lack of skilled labor and local supply chains in the U.S. remains a significant barrier to domestic smartphone manufacturing.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
Labor costs in the U.S. are higher than in China, where wages are significantly lower. While some workers in China have seen wage increases, the overall cost of labor remains a concern for U.S. manufacturing. Apple claims to manufacture some components in the U.S., but the majority of production still occurs overseas, complicating the narrative of American manufacturing revival.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:00
Google's attempt to manufacture smartphones in the U.S. with Motorola ended in failure due to high operating costs and low consumer demand. Experts suggest that the lack of skilled labor and the high cost of production in the U.S. make it difficult for companies to manufacture smartphones domestically.
- 00:30:00 - 00:35:00
Purism is one American company successfully manufacturing a smartphone in the U.S., the Librem 5 U.S.A., which is significantly more expensive than its Chinese counterpart. The company emphasizes the importance of domestic manufacturing for security and data protection, but faces challenges in scaling production and competing with cheaper alternatives.
- 00:35:00 - 00:40:00
The U.S. government is taking steps to support domestic manufacturing through initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act, which aims to incentivize semiconductor production. However, rebuilding the manufacturing ecosystem in the U.S. will take time and investment, and challenges remain in creating a competitive environment for complex electronics like smartphones.
- 00:40:00 - 00:50:07
The trend of 'dumb phones' is gaining traction, particularly among younger generations concerned about mental health and social media's impact. While the market for dumb phones has remained stable, the smartphone market continues to grow, especially in developing countries. The future of dumb phones may hinge on changing consumer attitudes towards technology and mental health.
الخريطة الذهنية
فيديو أسئلة وأجوبة
What caused the decline of BlackBerry?
BlackBerry's decline was due to its failure to adapt to the touchscreen smartphone market, leading to a significant drop in sales and market share.
Why are companies hesitant to manufacture smartphones in the U.S.?
Companies cite high labor costs, lack of skilled labor, and a non-existent supply chain for smartphone components in the U.S. as reasons for not manufacturing there.
What is the trend regarding dumb phones?
Dumb phones are gaining popularity among younger generations as a response to mental health concerns associated with smartphone use.
What is Purism?
Purism is an American company that manufactures the Librem 5 U.S.A. phone, the only smartphone made in the U.S., focusing on privacy and security.
What is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on manufacturing?
The pandemic highlighted vulnerabilities in global supply chains, prompting discussions about bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.
How has the smartphone market changed in developing countries?
While feature phones are still prevalent, smartphone usage is growing rapidly in developing countries, driven by affordability and functionality.
What are the main reasons for the rise of dumb phones?
Concerns over mental health, social media addiction, and a desire for a simpler lifestyle are driving the trend towards dumb phones.
What is the significance of the CHIPS and Science Act?
The CHIPS and Science Act aims to boost U.S. semiconductor manufacturing and support the revival of American manufacturing.
How does BlackBerry's current business model differ from its past?
BlackBerry has shifted from manufacturing smartphones to focusing on cybersecurity and IoT software, particularly in the automotive sector.
What challenges does BlackBerry face in the cybersecurity market?
BlackBerry faces intense competition from tech giants and primarily caters to regulated industries, limiting its market share.
عرض المزيد من ملخصات الفيديو
- 00:00:00The consumer electronics world was really never here.
- 00:00:04And so it's not a matter of bringing it back.
- 00:00:05It's a matter of starting it here.
- 00:00:08In light of supply chain issues highlighted by the
- 00:00:10Covid-19 pandemic, a push to bring manufacturing home
- 00:00:14to America returned.
- 00:00:15BlackBerry stock peaked at nearly $150 in 2008.
- 00:00:19Now it's sitting pretty at around five bucks.
- 00:00:21January 2022 marked the end of an era.
- 00:00:2485% of Americans have a smart phone, and that
- 00:00:27percentage has grown every year since their inception.
- 00:00:29But some think the dumb phone industry will grow as
- 00:00:32well.
- 00:00:32I'm never going back to a smart phone.
- 00:00:40Made in China.
- 00:00:41It's a common phrase we see on everything.
- 00:00:43From clothes to electronics, China controls the market.
- 00:00:47And while that's today's reality, it has not always
- 00:00:49been the case. The United States used to be a global
- 00:00:52leader in manufacturing, but in 2010, China passed
- 00:00:55the U.S. in manufacturing output and has seen massive
- 00:00:58growth ever since, going from 3.5% in 1990 to 30.5%
- 00:01:04in 2021.
- 00:01:06With the U.S. now ranking behind China at 16.8% of
- 00:01:10global manufacturing output.
- 00:01:12However, in light of supply chain issues highlighted by
- 00:01:15the Covid 19 pandemic, a push to bring manufacturing
- 00:01:18home to America returned.
- 00:01:20Stamping products "Made in America." Made in America.
- 00:01:23Made in the U.S.A. The revitalization of American
- 00:01:25manufacturing.
- 00:01:26While some industries like the semiconductor industry
- 00:01:29and the battery market are scrambling to build new
- 00:01:31factories across the U.S., tech giants are not making
- 00:01:34the same effort to do that.
- 00:01:36CNBC wanted to find out why tech giants aren't making
- 00:01:39smart phones in America.
- 00:01:40We visited one company, which is manufacturing a
- 00:01:43phone in the U.S.
- 00:01:44to explore what it would take for more phones to be
- 00:01:46made in the States.
- 00:01:55The history of manufacturing technology in
- 00:01:58the U.S. dates back decades, way before smart
- 00:02:01phones even existed.
- 00:02:02The whole concept of manufacturing in the U.S.
- 00:02:05was very strong. Through about the mid 1960s, we
- 00:02:08fundamentally gave manufacturing away in the
- 00:02:11'60s and '70s, and in that timeframe Japan expanded,
- 00:02:16China expanded, a lot of the other Asian countries
- 00:02:19expanded.
- 00:02:19Today, the supply chain for smart phone manufacturing
- 00:02:22lives outside of the U.S.
- 00:02:24and big tech companies are heavily involved.
- 00:02:26Apple and Alphabet hire and send thousands of employees
- 00:02:29abroad to oversee manufacturing.
- 00:02:31Prior to Covid, it was very common to send engineers
- 00:02:34like myself, maybe 10, 20, 40 engineers at a time to
- 00:02:38the factory to support prototyping builds, to do
- 00:02:41that learning and finding and fixing of issues and be
- 00:02:44in the right place at the right time.
- 00:02:46In fact, in 2019, Apple was United Airlines' biggest
- 00:02:49customer, buying 50 business class seats from
- 00:02:52San Francisco to Shanghai daily, accounting for $150
- 00:02:57million in annual revenue for United.
- 00:02:59This is one reason Anna-Katrina Shedletsky
- 00:03:01founded Instrumental.
- 00:03:03The startup aims to reduce waste in the manufacturing
- 00:03:05process by making it easier to oversee production
- 00:03:08remotely.
- 00:03:09I started instrumental with my co-founder Sam because we
- 00:03:12felt like data provided an opportunity to be leveraged
- 00:03:17to solve these problems much faster.
- 00:03:19And maybe I wouldn't have to, as an engineer, go to
- 00:03:22China every several weeks for many weeks at a time to
- 00:03:25find these issues and try to be in the right place at
- 00:03:27the right time.
- 00:03:27As new technologies like Instrumental emerge to make
- 00:03:30it easier to manufacture abroad, there isn't much
- 00:03:33incentive for companies to move factories to America.
- 00:03:36Apple has moved some iPhone production to India amidst
- 00:03:39Covid lockdowns in China and rising tensions between
- 00:03:42Washington and Beijing.
- 00:03:44One estimate predicts one out of four iPhones will be
- 00:03:47made in India by 2025.
- 00:03:49So why not move some production to the U.S.
- 00:03:52as well? Back in 2012, Apple CEO Tim Cook made this
- 00:03:55point.
- 00:03:56The consumer electronics world was really never here.
- 00:03:59And so it's not a matter of bringing it back.
- 00:04:00It's a matter of starting it here.
- 00:04:02Then in 2017, he followed up telling Fortune it's an
- 00:04:05issue of highly skilled labor.
- 00:04:07There's a confusion about China that, and let me at
- 00:04:12least give you my opinion.
- 00:04:14The popular conception is that companies come to China
- 00:04:19because of low labor cost.
- 00:04:22I'm not sure what part of China they go to, but the
- 00:04:27truth is China stopped being the low labor cost
- 00:04:29country many years ago, and that is not the reason to
- 00:04:34come to China from a supply point of view.
- 00:04:38The reason is because of the skill and the quantity
- 00:04:43of skill in one location and the type of skill it is.
- 00:04:47With a population of 1.4 billion, China does have the
- 00:04:50most undergrads getting science and engineering
- 00:04:52degrees globally, but in reality there is still a
- 00:04:55difference in the cost of labor. The U.S.
- 00:04:57federal minimum wage is $7.25.
- 00:05:01And while China has no set national minimum wage and
- 00:05:04the city of Zhengzhou, where Foxconn's largest
- 00:05:07iPhone plant is located, the hourly minimum wage is
- 00:05:1019.6 Yuan or less than $3.
- 00:05:13We don't know exactly how much the factory workers are
- 00:05:17making, but in the early days, they had a wage that
- 00:05:20was much better than they were making out in the
- 00:05:23fields. Now, as the demand for their products and their
- 00:05:28talent has, because they've gotten more experience,
- 00:05:32their wages have gone up even more.
- 00:05:34And many of the workers who are in the factories are
- 00:05:38moving into what we would call their version of what
- 00:05:41we would call middle class now.
- 00:05:43Foxconn did not respond to a request for a comment, and
- 00:05:46Apple did not provide a comment on iPhone worker
- 00:05:48wages either.
- 00:05:49I would say that there is still a cost of labor
- 00:05:51concern for building here in the U.S.
- 00:05:53But I do agree with what Tim Cook is saying, that
- 00:05:56there is also an expertise that makes China very
- 00:05:59attractive. There is a lot of skill and a lot of local
- 00:06:02supply chain for where all the parts are going to come
- 00:06:04from, to build such a complex product, that makes
- 00:06:08it a very appealing place to build.
- 00:06:10Apple said in a statement to CNBC that "All of our
- 00:06:13products are designed and engineered here, and they
- 00:06:16all include components manufactured in America.
- 00:06:19For example, iPhone glass is made in Kentucky, and
- 00:06:22lasers that enable Face ID are built in the U.S.
- 00:06:25too." It also said, "Just last year we announced $430
- 00:06:30billion in new investments across the country,
- 00:06:32including our work with more than 9,000 suppliers
- 00:06:35across all 50 states." In 2012, Google
- 00:06:44purchased Motorola for $12.5 billion.
- 00:06:47A year later, it opened the U.S.'s only smart phone
- 00:06:49manufacturing plant in Fort Worth, Texas, with plans to
- 00:06:53make the Moto X.
- 00:06:54The factory was part of Motorola's plan to build an
- 00:06:56American-made low cost smart phone.
- 00:06:59But about a year after it opened, the plant shut down,
- 00:07:02citing high domestic operating costs and low
- 00:07:04consumer demand.
- 00:07:05Google sold Motorola to Lenovo for a
- 00:07:08multibillion-dollar loss.
- 00:07:09Some experts say, Motorola's U.S.
- 00:07:12failure shows that the cost of labor and the lack of
- 00:07:14skill in the U.S.
- 00:07:15is why manufacturing in the country is not
- 00:07:18cost-effective. Alan Yeung, a former Foxconn executive
- 00:07:21and author of the book, Flying Eagle, brought up
- 00:07:23this point during a visit to the White House in 2017
- 00:07:26with then chairman of Foxconn, Terry Gou.
- 00:07:29Foxconn is Apple's largest supplier and the world's
- 00:07:32largest electronic manufacturer.
- 00:07:34Chairman Gou, Terry made it very clear.
- 00:07:37The core skills and the capabilities of making
- 00:07:42phones, manufacturing electronics have moved to
- 00:07:46Asia. And for it to come back to U.S, it would be
- 00:07:52difficult, though not impossible, but it would
- 00:07:56take a while. It won't be easy.
- 00:07:59That's the reality.
- 00:08:01However, Purism is one American company that has
- 00:08:04been able to do what many are calling the impossible.
- 00:08:07So this is actually where we're going to do a
- 00:08:09manufacturing for the Librem 5 U.S.A.
- 00:08:12We're going to do the printed circuit board to
- 00:08:14printed circuit board assembly. We started the
- 00:08:16company in 2014 doing manufacturing in the United
- 00:08:20States of America. Purism is hardware manufacturer as
- 00:08:23well as software.
- 00:08:24So we do laptops, mini PCs and also a phone that run
- 00:08:28the same operating system that we authored.
- 00:08:30Purism offers a range of consumer electronics,
- 00:08:33including the Librem 5 U.S.A phone, which costs
- 00:08:36$2,000. It's the only smart phone in the world
- 00:08:39with the Made in U.S.A stamp.
- 00:08:41The FTC actually has a very strict definition of what
- 00:08:44Made in U.S.A is or Assembled in the U.S.A.
- 00:08:46The Librem 5 U.S.A.
- 00:08:47is manufactured in the United States of America.
- 00:08:50We actually have a label and a sticker we put on
- 00:08:51there Made in U.S.A Electronics so that we're
- 00:08:54actually showcasing that we are indeed qualified by the
- 00:08:57FTC definition of Made in U.S.A.
- 00:09:00for a full phone.
- 00:09:01The phone is assembled here and its Carlsbad,
- 00:09:03California factory.
- 00:09:04Purism sources all components of the Librem 5
- 00:09:07U.S.A. phone domestically, with the exception of the
- 00:09:09chassis and the Wi-Fi card.
- 00:09:11Overall, what we're looking at is all the electronics
- 00:09:14are manufactured at our facility, the chassis, the
- 00:09:18specific components are called integrated circuits.
- 00:09:21Those can come from outside of the country.
- 00:09:22As one example, our NXP CPU is manufactured in South
- 00:09:27Korea and then we import that specific chip and then
- 00:09:31we use it on our board that we do all the manufacturing.
- 00:09:34But the company also sells the Librem 5 phone, which is
- 00:09:37mass produced in China.
- 00:09:38For $1,300, it's $700 cheaper than the
- 00:09:41American-made model.
- 00:09:42Weaver says he hopes to expand the line of products
- 00:09:45the company makes in the U.S.
- 00:09:47For us, obviously the U.S.
- 00:09:48is the one we're expanding most and it's going to even
- 00:09:51spill over to doing other products in the United
- 00:09:53States as well, like our laptop and mini PCs and
- 00:09:56potentially even servers.
- 00:09:58There is also a potential for us to even get into chip
- 00:10:00manufacturing.
- 00:10:01Weaver said the company is profitable, but we asked how
- 00:10:04this is possible with the higher labor cost for the
- 00:10:06U.S. made model.
- 00:10:07Actual physical labor costs are clearly more than in
- 00:10:10China. We're able to sell at a price point where we
- 00:10:12don't have to cram our costs so far down.
- 00:10:14So that allows us to pay people really well and take
- 00:10:17care of the employees and have secure supply chain and
- 00:10:19everything else.
- 00:10:20Purism initially started through a crowdfunding
- 00:10:22initiative. Now the company says it's sold tens of
- 00:10:25thousands of phones.
- 00:10:26Overall, we're a multimillion-dollar company.
- 00:10:28We've seen growth, triple digits year over year since
- 00:10:30we started. Our margins are healthy, which allows us to
- 00:10:33continue to pay people really well and also allows
- 00:10:36us to scale up the business.
- 00:10:38Purism said almost one third of its revenue comes from
- 00:10:41the American made Librem 5 U.S.A model.
- 00:10:44But Weaver said labor hasn't been an issue for the
- 00:10:46company.
- 00:10:47The key piece that you're looking at is there's
- 00:10:48actually not a lot of physical labor that goes
- 00:10:51into producing a phone.
- 00:10:53It's more mechanical labor, the actual machines.
- 00:10:55And so machine versus machine, it's equal to do us
- 00:10:59manufacturing on the same machine in the U.S.
- 00:11:02versus a machine in China.
- 00:11:04So in the end, you're looking at a number of U.S.
- 00:11:08jobs that can be that assembly line operator final
- 00:11:11fulfillment, but machine versus machine, it's still
- 00:11:13equal.
- 00:11:14But do Americans want these jobs?
- 00:11:16Any time we post a job at all, we get 100 applicants.
- 00:11:20So from line operators to assembly workers, right?
- 00:11:23We're talking well over $10 over minimum wage for a lot
- 00:11:26of those positions.
- 00:11:27However, not everyone agrees this business model will be
- 00:11:30successful in the States.
- 00:11:31Baizhu Chen, a professor at the USC Marshall School of
- 00:11:34Business, says these jobs are not coming back.
- 00:11:37I don't see in the U.S.
- 00:11:39there's rows and rows of workers sitting in front of
- 00:11:43the desk, assemble the small phones.
- 00:11:45I don't see that happening.
- 00:11:47These type of jobs are not coming back to the U.S.
- 00:11:50I'm talking about the labor-intensive
- 00:11:53manufacturing job.
- 00:11:55There's actually lots of manufacturing jobs that are
- 00:11:57being made here in the U.S., they're just not
- 00:12:01assembly jobs. They are data analysis jobs,
- 00:12:04engineering jobs.
- 00:12:05I definitely think there are compelling cases where
- 00:12:07you can build highly complex products, here in
- 00:12:09the U.S., it's usually at much lower volumes.
- 00:12:12It's not a million a day.
- 00:12:13Smaller companies are often deciding to build locally.
- 00:12:19So what will it take to bring phone manufacturing to
- 00:12:22the U.S.?
- 00:12:24Not only you will need to rebuild the human
- 00:12:26infrastructure, you also need the components to be
- 00:12:29made nearby.
- 00:12:31Somewhere in the ecosystem, needs to be there.
- 00:12:34America doesn't have this ecosystem here because we
- 00:12:38have not been manufacturing phones for years, and so the
- 00:12:44supply chain doesn't exist here in the U.S.
- 00:12:47They are in Asia, in China, in Vietnam and other
- 00:12:51countries. So to rebuild those things will take time
- 00:12:54and take cost.
- 00:12:55Very expensive.
- 00:12:56It doesn't make any sense.
- 00:12:59But in light of recent support from the U.S.
- 00:13:01government to transform the American manufacturing
- 00:13:04ecosystem, the U.S.
- 00:13:05is taking steps to restore some manufacturing jobs.
- 00:13:08In August 2022, President Biden signed the CHIPS and
- 00:13:11Science Act. The bipartisan bill includes $52 billion to
- 00:13:14U.S. based companies to produce semiconductors, with
- 00:13:17$39 billion in manufacturing incentives.
- 00:13:20America finally is making policy at the federal, state
- 00:13:25and local level to level the playing field.
- 00:13:28Beforehand, it was just difficult because
- 00:13:30regulations and red tape were plenty.
- 00:13:33Taxes were high and cost is very high.
- 00:13:36I would say it would be very challenging to build a
- 00:13:38complex electronic device like a phone here in the
- 00:13:41U.S. It absolutely can be profitable to build products
- 00:13:44here in the U.S., but it's got to be the right product
- 00:13:47and have the right technology support around
- 00:13:49that product.
- 00:13:50In 2017, the White House announced Foxconn's plan to
- 00:13:53open a massive LCD screen manufacturing facility in
- 00:13:56Wisconsin.
- 00:13:57I led the project Flying Eagle, which was slated to
- 00:14:02invest up to $10 billion and creating 13,000 jobs in
- 00:14:07the state of Wisconsin.
- 00:14:08But Foxconn has massively scaled back on that
- 00:14:11promise. In 2021, the company anticipated creating
- 00:14:14less than 1,500 of the initial 13,000 jobs promised
- 00:14:18and cut its investments to $672 million.
- 00:14:22Foxconn bit off more than it could chew at that
- 00:14:25particular stage of their history dealing with
- 00:14:28everything from the regulatory side, the
- 00:14:30environmental side, the actual building of the
- 00:14:35facilities, and then even possibly getting the right
- 00:14:38kind of people needed to do it.
- 00:14:40That was just not reality, in the short time frame they
- 00:14:43promised.
- 00:14:44Two key elements that actually affect the project
- 00:14:47were the market condition and also the investment
- 00:14:50climate. In our case, for LCD manufacturing, the
- 00:14:55prices drop and got cut by half.
- 00:14:57And if you ask manufacturers, would they
- 00:15:00still build the project or build a factory if the end
- 00:15:03product now sold 50% off, I think they have to pause
- 00:15:08and really take a long, hard look strategically to
- 00:15:11do that.
- 00:15:11But if the world's largest electronic manufacturer
- 00:15:14couldn't succeed in Wisconsin with LCD screens,
- 00:15:17and if Motorola failed at making phones in the country
- 00:15:20after only a year, it seems highly unlikely that we will
- 00:15:23see any other attempts to make smart phones in the
- 00:15:25U.S. any time soon.
- 00:15:27I can't comment on whether Apple asked Foxconn to
- 00:15:30manufacture iPhone in the United States, but I'm sure
- 00:15:34when the clients of Foxconn ask the company to consider
- 00:15:39manufacturing a particular product in the United
- 00:15:41States, the company will be ready.
- 00:15:43As to why it's necessary to build phones in the U.S.,
- 00:15:46Purism's president Kyle Rankin says it's largely due
- 00:15:49to security concerns and data protection.
- 00:15:52At Purism, we think data is uranium, so we treat it like
- 00:15:57a radioactive substance where we collect as little
- 00:16:00of it as humanly possible.
- 00:16:02Manufacturing things in the U.S.A.
- 00:16:03avoids risks from some other government or overseas or
- 00:16:06something tampering with it. Every extra link you add
- 00:16:08to the supply chain is an extra opportunity for
- 00:16:11someone to inject themselves in that supply
- 00:16:13chain and tamper with things.
- 00:16:15If China continues to be a security threat, more and
- 00:16:19more of the U.S.
- 00:16:20companies and the international companies are
- 00:16:22going to move manufacturing outside of China and we're
- 00:16:25already seeing that happen.
- 00:16:27But Professor Chen says it's really not necessary.
- 00:16:30We eat strawberry, we eat tomatoes, but we don't grow
- 00:16:33tomatoes, we don't grow strawberry.
- 00:16:35It's the same thing.
- 00:16:37We can consume iPhone or any smart phone without
- 00:16:41manufacturing the smart phone.
- 00:16:43These phones can be manufactured in Vietnam, in
- 00:16:47China, in different other countries.
- 00:16:49Regardless of where it happens, the need for
- 00:16:51manufacturing phones is only going to grow.
- 00:16:54Other companies, they continue to fall back on,
- 00:16:57"It's just too hard to do in the United States," as
- 00:16:59almost a talking point as opposed to actually looking
- 00:17:02into how it would be able to get done.
- 00:17:03It can clearly get done, and there's a huge market
- 00:17:05opportunity and it's just cheaper for those companies
- 00:17:08to offshore those jobs and continue to import from
- 00:17:11other countries.
- 00:17:12There is a reason why those companies manufacturing
- 00:17:15product in China.
- 00:17:17By combining the labor cost and the supply chain and
- 00:17:20productivity, China is still the most efficient
- 00:17:23place to produce.
- 00:17:24Whether a phone or TV or computer should be made in
- 00:17:28the U.S., it's going to be up to the companies, meaning
- 00:17:32the supply chain, including Foxconn and the clients, to
- 00:17:35decide. But ultimately it's the end user customers who
- 00:17:39is going to decide.
- 00:17:40And the customer is going to decide when go to the shop
- 00:17:44or go online and make the purchase and make the
- 00:17:46decision with their credit cards.
- 00:17:58So while yes, you can find an OG flip phone, some of
- 00:18:01the relics on eBay, we're seeing companies develop new
- 00:18:03models to—
- 00:18:05Flip phones are hot right now.
- 00:18:07Flip phone!
- 00:18:10While it might seem like dumb phones are a product of
- 00:18:12the past, they've actually remained prevalent around
- 00:18:14the world and still make up about a quarter of phones
- 00:18:16actively being used.
- 00:18:18And yes, this is in large part due to their
- 00:18:20affordability in developing countries, but it's also
- 00:18:23becoming a movement among younger generations.
- 00:18:25So it's been an official week on this guy.
- 00:18:28The crappy dumb phone.
- 00:18:31And I'm never going back to a smart phone.
- 00:18:34We're going to be talking about my dumb phone.
- 00:18:37Today, we're going to talk about the Light Phone II.
- 00:18:40It's been three years since I've had this device.
- 00:18:42I had been thinking about getting a dumb phone or a
- 00:18:45flip phone for a while, but then I kind of involuntarily
- 00:18:49adopted one. My iPhone broke and I loved it so
- 00:18:53much, I just, I decided to keep it.
- 00:18:56Despite this, smart phones are still king.
- 00:18:59Even in developing nations where flip phones are still
- 00:19:01widely used, smart phone usage is growing.
- 00:19:04Developing countries are definitely some of the
- 00:19:07places where Nokia has not just as a brand but also
- 00:19:11with both feature phones and also smart phones, has a
- 00:19:13very, very strong presence.
- 00:19:16Worldwide, the feature phone market is expected to
- 00:19:18decrease by about 10% over the next five or so years,
- 00:19:21largely attributed to developing countries making
- 00:19:24the switch to smart phones. And older
- 00:19:26generations refusing to use smart phones could be
- 00:19:28phasing out as there is a 48% increase in smart phone
- 00:19:31ownership among those 65 and up from 2012 to 2021.
- 00:19:35But the amount of dumb phones being used by young
- 00:19:37people in Western countries is growing.
- 00:19:39CNBC wanted to explore what the dumb phone trend is all
- 00:19:42about and see if it can compete with the massive
- 00:19:43smart phone industry.
- 00:19:52Within the dumb phone market, there are
- 00:19:53essentially two avenues most consumers take.
- 00:19:56One being a classic flip or slide phone, similar to what
- 00:19:59was commonly used in the early and mid-aughts, like a
- 00:20:01Motorola or Nokia.
- 00:20:03Two being a modern minimalist phone from brands
- 00:20:05like Light or Punkt.
- 00:20:07whose phones are in a way purposefully dumb.
- 00:20:09And these brands are also labeling their phones as
- 00:20:11feature phones, which is like a flip phone with some
- 00:20:14additions, like a hotspot or a GPS.
- 00:20:16How do you feel about the term dumb phone?
- 00:20:19Well, we're trying to do with the Light Phone isn't
- 00:20:22to create a dumb phone, but to create a more intentional
- 00:20:25phone, a premium, minimal phone, which, you know,
- 00:20:30isn't inherently anti-technology, but it's
- 00:20:33about consciously choosing how and when to use which
- 00:20:36aspects of technology add to my quality of life versus
- 00:20:40tempting me with all sorts of vulnerabilities of the
- 00:20:43smart phone.
- 00:20:44In Europe, for instance, you have a culture.
- 00:20:46Here in Switzerland and Germany, they don't call it
- 00:20:50a dumb phone or a digital minimalist phone, they call
- 00:20:53it the weekend phone.
- 00:20:55One of the biggest reasons some Gen Zers are reverting
- 00:20:58to a dumb or minimalist phone is the concern with
- 00:21:00smart phones effects on mental health.
- 00:21:03We all know that what people convey through social media,
- 00:21:08they only convey the best of their life, which makes
- 00:21:12others falsely believe they live a lesser life by social
- 00:21:17comparison, which in turn negatively affects their
- 00:21:21self esteem and well-being.
- 00:21:24The U.S. Surgeon General even recently stated that 13
- 00:21:27is too young to be on social media, so some are
- 00:21:29taking the initiative and switching to a dumb or
- 00:21:31feature phone incapable of browser and social media
- 00:21:34use.
- 00:21:35It's definitely a trend that we've noticed that people
- 00:21:38have been very occupied with digital social media
- 00:21:41for a while, and a lot of people want to take a step
- 00:21:44back and get a bit more detached from that part of
- 00:21:48their life.
- 00:21:49I take my smart phone with me absolutely everywhere.
- 00:21:51So I decided to jump on the dumb phone bandwagon and
- 00:21:54test out a couple different devices.
- 00:21:56This is the Punkt.
- 00:21:57NP02 phone. It's my first dumb phone ever, sent over
- 00:22:04from Switzerland in this mysterious box.
- 00:22:10It has a T9 layout which I've never actually used
- 00:22:16before for typing. So we'll see how that goes.
- 00:22:22A study found that Americans in their 20s are
- 00:22:24on their phones for about 29 hours a week, equaling
- 00:22:28about four hours a day.
- 00:22:30That was in 2021.
- 00:22:31Just for reference, my own screen time trends about at
- 00:22:36two and a half to three hours, which is a little bit
- 00:22:41less than average.
- 00:22:42The vast majority of my time is spent on messages.
- 00:22:45Now I'm going to swap out the SIM from my iPhone to
- 00:22:49the Punkt. phone. The Punkt .
- 00:22:53phone retails for about $380 or $400 if you want it in
- 00:22:56light blue.
- 00:22:57You can call, you can SMS.
- 00:22:59You can call and message through signal and you can
- 00:23:04make it use as a hotspot for connectivity.
- 00:23:08There are other purposefully dumb phones, like the Light
- 00:23:12Phone, which allows for a little bit more leeway, I
- 00:23:16guess, on what you can do.
- 00:23:18Retailing for about $300, the light phone has a few
- 00:23:21more built in tools.
- 00:23:22We kind of set these guidelines of let's create
- 00:23:25things that have a real utility purpose.
- 00:23:28So something like an alarm or directions or a
- 00:23:31calculator or even, you know, a voice memo and notes
- 00:23:34tool. These things have like a really clear use
- 00:23:37case.
- 00:23:37There's nothing about Punkt .
- 00:23:39that is against technology.
- 00:23:40It's about intentional technology.
- 00:23:43Right now I'm actually waiting on a call from
- 00:23:45somebody who I've been dating for about a month and
- 00:23:48we've never actually called before, but we're trying to
- 00:23:50set up our plans for tomorrow, and texting is
- 00:23:53just so inefficient on a phone like this, so we're
- 00:23:56going the old fashioned way, doing a little call.
- 00:24:01Hello. Hi.
- 00:24:04So far, I actually haven't run into too many issues.
- 00:24:07It's actually kind of nice to be able to just sit with
- 00:24:09the uncertainty of things instead of looking them up.
- 00:24:13And I'm still able to text just, like, kind of poorly.
- 00:24:16I'm a little bit more reliant on calling, but I'm
- 00:24:22about to have about an hour and a half commute up to our
- 00:24:24office in Englewood Cliffs because I live in Brooklyn,
- 00:24:27so I'm not going to be able to use music or podcasts,
- 00:24:32which I usually do the entire time.
- 00:24:35Instead, I'll have to, doing some reading, but
- 00:24:38maybe that's for the best, you know?
- 00:24:40Sit with my thoughts a little bit more.
- 00:24:41One sort of weird issue that I'm running into is
- 00:24:44directions. The phone does not have any sort of map or
- 00:24:48directional indicator on it, so I'm having to look up
- 00:24:50directions before I go for certain places.
- 00:24:53It's no problem, like, getting to work just because
- 00:24:54I have that memorized. But for places that I'm not as
- 00:24:56used to going, I have to check before I leave and
- 00:24:59then just try to remember everything, which can be a
- 00:25:01little bit of a challenge.
- 00:25:02Okay, so I did have to briefly cheat.
- 00:25:04I was trying to meet my friend at a coffee shop and
- 00:25:06couldn't find it. Got a little lost, so I just
- 00:25:08swapped my SIM just to pull up the map.
- 00:25:10Now I've got my hands on the light phone, so I'm
- 00:25:12going to swap my SIM and see how this one goes.
- 00:25:15So the Light Phone has an actual keyboard on it, which
- 00:25:18makes it a little bit easier to use for me, but
- 00:25:21everything on it is a little bit delayed because
- 00:25:25of the type of screen it is. So I'm still struggling
- 00:25:28a lot. One of the tools that they added to the
- 00:25:30Light Phone II, which I think is actually really
- 00:25:32nice, is voice-to-text and it works pretty well.
- 00:25:37You have to go a little slow for it, but overall,
- 00:25:39very convenient.
- 00:25:41This is the home screen and you actually have to go on
- 00:25:43your computer to their online dashboard to add any
- 00:25:45additional tools past the alarm.
- 00:25:47So I went in and added directions, hotspot, music,
- 00:25:51notes, podcasting.
- 00:25:53The directional tool actually works really well.
- 00:25:55I expected to have to put in the actual address, but you
- 00:25:57can actually just type in the name of something or
- 00:26:00most of something and it'll figure out the rest from
- 00:26:03there. The Light Phone music tool only allows you
- 00:26:09to upload basically MP3's.
- 00:26:11You're using it as an MP3 player, so you have to
- 00:26:13download music, you can't actually stream it.
- 00:26:15So I'm actually going to buy an album for the first
- 00:26:18time and I want to say like 10 years.
- 00:26:21So I mean, it is working.
- 00:26:24It's not like the best listening experience, but I
- 00:26:26am listening to music, so it counts for something.
- 00:26:30While I don't really use my phone that much to begin
- 00:26:32with, compared to most people my age, I decided
- 00:26:34that a dumb phone really isn't for me.
- 00:26:35And honestly, one of the biggest negatives for me was
- 00:26:37not being able to listen to music and get around super
- 00:26:40easily using something like Google Maps.
- 00:26:47On average, over half of kids in the U.S.
- 00:26:48received their first smart phone by age 11, and that
- 00:26:51percentage has continued to grow, making Gen Z the first
- 00:26:53generation to entirely grow up with social media and
- 00:26:56smart phones. And about half of teens in the U.S.
- 00:26:58said they feel addicted to their mobile devices, which
- 00:27:00can have adverse effects on mental health.
- 00:27:03This is why parents should be encouraging healthy
- 00:27:08device habits.
- 00:27:10It's not about prohibiting or banning totally devices
- 00:27:15from being used, maybe like encouraging their children
- 00:27:21to take some regular breaks.
- 00:27:24A recent study found that decreasing teen smart
- 00:27:27phone-based social media use by 50% improves issues with
- 00:27:30emotional distress.
- 00:27:32But I think you can see it with certain Gen Z
- 00:27:35populations. They're tired of the screens.
- 00:27:38They don't know what is going on with mental health
- 00:27:40and they're trying to make cutbacks.
- 00:27:42And from 2019 to 2022, over a billion feature phones
- 00:27:46were sold globally.
- 00:27:47I think this trend, starting in the United States, could
- 00:27:53very easily move, I would say first, to Western Europe
- 00:27:57and Australia, and then after that, places like
- 00:28:02Eastern Europe and even places like China.
- 00:28:05This trend is largely a result of mental health
- 00:28:07concerns and in part why companies like Light and
- 00:28:09Punkt. said its devices are popular among younger
- 00:28:12audiences, despite having simple and intuitive
- 00:28:14designs. A study connecting mental health and the rise
- 00:28:17of social media from 2008 to 2018 found that 18 to 23
- 00:28:21year olds who reported experiencing a depressive
- 00:28:23episode increased by 83%.
- 00:28:26So I wanted to change my lifestyle, you know, kind of
- 00:28:29like get into a slower lifestyle instead of like
- 00:28:31the fast pace of the internet.
- 00:28:34We kind of had this hypothesis that taking a
- 00:28:38break from smart phones and the internet at large from
- 00:28:41time to time would yield a really refreshing and
- 00:28:45positive experience for users.
- 00:28:48And brands like Light and Punkt.
- 00:28:49that are geared toward younger audiences have found
- 00:28:51success and increasing device sales.
- 00:28:53From 2021, for example, to the last year of 2022, we
- 00:28:57did grow 50% year over year.
- 00:29:00You know, we have five fold compared to 2018.
- 00:29:04As for this way, so, but you know, we are not in the
- 00:29:06millions, we are in the hundreds thousands.
- 00:29:09But I think this Light Phone, Punkt.
- 00:29:13and brands that are new, I think could make a much
- 00:29:17bigger impact, particularly in the Western world,
- 00:29:21because it's not apologizing for being not a
- 00:29:25smart phone.
- 00:29:26In 2021, just 61% of Americans 65 and up were
- 00:29:30using smart phones, while 29% were using a dumb or
- 00:29:33feature phone.
- 00:29:34The biggest question that I wanted to figure out is will
- 00:29:39they age out or will they move to something different?
- 00:29:44And as with most technology, older generations were slow
- 00:29:46to adopt smart phones.
- 00:29:47In 2012, when smart phones had picked up some serious
- 00:29:50steam, only 13% of those 65 and up had a smart phone,
- 00:29:53compared to 66% of 18 to 29 year olds.
- 00:29:56What's assumed is that older generations are still
- 00:29:59using feature phones because it's what they're
- 00:30:00used to and have no need for the updated tech.
- 00:30:03And just 45% of them said they ever use social media.
- 00:30:06I do believe we'll see higher adoption of dumb
- 00:30:10phones even when folks like I age out.
- 00:30:13If nothing else, the dexterity that it takes to
- 00:30:18touch the screen of a smart phone when you get
- 00:30:21older is tough.
- 00:30:24Your eyes go and directly you cannot operate a smart
- 00:30:29phone without having some reasonable eyesight.
- 00:30:34Older generations are sticking with Nokia phones
- 00:30:37and still doing that.
- 00:30:39But I think that's also where we really try to bring
- 00:30:42on top of that innovation.
- 00:30:43So they can still function in a modern society.
- 00:30:47Older generations are clearly shifting away from
- 00:30:49dumb phones. And despite the growing movement among
- 00:30:52younger generations, 85% of Americans have a smart
- 00:30:54phone. And that percentage has grown every year since
- 00:30:57their inception. But some think the dumb phone
- 00:30:59industry will grow as well.
- 00:31:01In North America, the market for dumb phones has pretty
- 00:31:04much flatlined over the past four or five years, but
- 00:31:09I could see it getting up to 5% increase in the next
- 00:31:16five years, if nothing else, based on the more
- 00:31:18public health concerns that are out there.
- 00:31:24The problem is that humanity is not yet ready for this
- 00:31:29fast evolving software.
- 00:31:32Children are not yet ready because they are going
- 00:31:36through a very important developmental age, so they
- 00:31:41are not yet prepared to face all the challenges that
- 00:31:46are currently available on the internet, video games or
- 00:31:53even the social media platforms.
- 00:31:55I think in the next five years we will have major CDC
- 00:32:00warnings about the dangers of smart phones and
- 00:32:06collectively that the smart phone industry wasn't
- 00:32:11able to manage on its own, and I could see there being
- 00:32:16some restrictions.
- 00:32:17And that alone, I think, will bring out likely
- 00:32:22parents not giving kids smart phones, but more dumb
- 00:32:27phones into the future.
- 00:32:31There's a reason why there is 15,000 subredditors on
- 00:32:36the dumb phone subreddit.
- 00:32:38Like, that's not a small, I mean it's small when you
- 00:32:41compare it to like Android subreddit or Google or
- 00:32:44iPhone, but it's a trend that is catching on and a
- 00:32:47lot of people are really interested in for sure.
- 00:32:50This is actually one of the best things I've ever done
- 00:32:52for my mental health because I've decreased the
- 00:32:56stimulation, I've created more space to feel my own
- 00:33:00ideas and to touch in with my emotions and just to kind
- 00:33:04of feel like what's going on with me without all of
- 00:33:07the noise.
- 00:33:13The smart phone market in emerging or developing
- 00:33:15countries has grown rapidly. The global smart
- 00:33:18phone market was valued at about $485 billion in 2022
- 00:33:22and is expected to reach nearly 800 billion by 2029.
- 00:33:25And the Middle East, Africa and India made up about 80%
- 00:33:28of feature phone sales in 2022.
- 00:33:30But these countries are also becoming concerned
- 00:33:32about the mental health impacts of increasing smart
- 00:33:34phone usage. A survey conducted in 11 developing
- 00:33:38countries found that 63% of adults were concerned that
- 00:33:41mobile phones were having a bad influence on children.
- 00:33:43But despite this, mental health isn't really the
- 00:33:45reason people in developing countries are opting for
- 00:33:48dumb phones — price is.
- 00:33:51That has very little to do with capability and parents
- 00:33:54watching their kids.
- 00:33:55It has everything to do with the the price point and
- 00:33:59the reliability.
- 00:34:00In that same 11-country survey, 70% of respondents
- 00:34:04said that mobile phones have been overall good for
- 00:34:06society.
- 00:34:08A lot of folks in areas like India, they'll run their
- 00:34:10entire business on a smart phone.
- 00:34:13And therefore, I do see the numbers going up for a
- 00:34:18country like India.
- 00:34:21And the makers of Nokia phones said they're still
- 00:34:23selling millions of feature phones globally every month.
- 00:34:25However, the U.S. is one of few markets where they
- 00:34:28noticed growth in feature phone sales last year.
- 00:34:31While feature phones do make up most of the
- 00:34:33cellphones actively being used in India, new phone
- 00:34:36sales are heavily in favor of smart phones.
- 00:34:38Of the roughly 200 million mobile phones shipped in
- 00:34:41India in 2022, only about 57 million were feature
- 00:34:44phones. And while feature phones are decreasing in
- 00:34:46developing nations, the industry does have a steady
- 00:34:48following elsewhere in certain niche markets and
- 00:34:51could see some growth as mental health concerns
- 00:34:53associated with social media and smart phones rise.
- 00:34:56While my experience wasn't terrible and I really don't
- 00:34:58use my phone that much to begin with, it's definitely
- 00:35:00something that I decided isn't really for me, and it
- 00:35:03remains to be seen whether it'll be more than just a
- 00:35:05trend in the
- 00:35:05U.S.
- 00:35:18For much of the mid to late-2000s, Research in
- 00:35:20Motion's BlackBerry was the most popular smart phone
- 00:35:23brand in the U.S., and it wasn't close, making up
- 00:35:26about 43% of smart phone users at its peak.
- 00:35:29Even after touchscreen phones from Apple and Google
- 00:35:32became mainstream, BlackBerry still maintained
- 00:35:34a strong user base for several years.
- 00:35:37RIM is now worth about $66 billion.
- 00:35:42That's with a B.
- 00:35:43Some couldn't imagine using a phone without a keyboard.
- 00:35:46Others wanted the advanced cybersecurity that
- 00:35:48BlackBerry phones offered.
- 00:35:49Something that BlackBerry is known for is not getting
- 00:35:53hacked and having security and privacy, something that
- 00:35:56is near and dear to our DNA.
- 00:35:58And the company's stock peaked at nearly $150 in
- 00:36:012008. Now it's sitting pretty at around five bucks.
- 00:36:06January 2022 marked the end of an era.
- 00:36:10A moment of silence for dear departed BlackBerry.
- 00:36:13Starting today, the BlackBerry classic device
- 00:36:16once a go-to for millions, including then-President
- 00:36:19Barack Obama, will no longer work.
- 00:36:22After over two decades of servicing mobile
- 00:36:25communication devices, it established software and
- 00:36:27cybersecurity as its sole business.
- 00:36:30Because they are trying to stage what would be a
- 00:36:34tremendous turnaround for a company that once used to
- 00:36:37make smart phones. So they are playing it cautious, but
- 00:36:40playing it cautious, on the other hand, is limiting
- 00:36:43their growth potential as well.
- 00:36:45But the margin is going up and one of these days the
- 00:36:47switch will flip. So we are hiring and growing and
- 00:36:52spending.
- 00:36:53Overall, it was a tough transition and I'm proud of
- 00:36:57the way we're pivoting.
- 00:37:00So what made this iconic brand have such a meteoric
- 00:37:03rise and catastrophic fall and what is it up to
- 00:37:05now?
- 00:37:13BlackBerry was founded in 1984 as RIM, short for
- 00:37:16Research in Motion.
- 00:37:17Its first product was Budgie, which allowed
- 00:37:19information to be displayed on a screen wirelessly.
- 00:37:22While Budgie did have some initial success and was even
- 00:37:25used by General Motors, it didn't last.
- 00:37:28It made several other products, including
- 00:37:30DigiSync, a device used in film post-production, which
- 00:37:33won an Academy Award for technical achievement.
- 00:37:36But it wasn't until it developed the RIM 900, one
- 00:37:38of the first wireless devices that could send and
- 00:37:40receive data, when Research in Motion really started to
- 00:37:43pick up steam, it used an early wireless data network
- 00:37:47to send and receive messages, and it set the
- 00:37:49groundwork for what would eventually become a
- 00:37:51BlackBerry. The earliest iteration of the BlackBerry
- 00:37:54phones we all know began in 2002 with a 5810.
- 00:37:58It could send and receive messages and also allowed
- 00:38:00for use of a simplified browser.
- 00:38:03It was really interesting to go from small volumes of
- 00:38:08these interactive pagers to huge volumes of smart phone
- 00:38:13handsets.
- 00:38:18BlackBerry's popularity peaked in the late-aughts.
- 00:38:20At the time, the brand and its products were quite
- 00:38:23simply a cultural phenomenon, coined the
- 00:38:25CrackBerry by many.
- 00:38:26The phones were seen as addictive. One of the first
- 00:38:29glimpses of how smart phones would eventually take
- 00:38:31over our lives.
- 00:38:33It was a really exciting time.
- 00:38:35I mean, we as a company had a really strong product.
- 00:38:41That's Sarah Tatsis, who joined BlackBerry when it
- 00:38:43was still known as Research in Motion in 2001.
- 00:38:46President Obama was the first high-tech president
- 00:38:49and was adamant about keeping his BlackBerry while
- 00:38:51in office.
- 00:38:53But I'm still clinging to my BlackBerry.
- 00:38:54They're going to pry it out of my hands.
- 00:38:57In 2007, it was the most valuable company in Canada,
- 00:39:00surpassing Royal Bank, which held that spot for
- 00:39:03about two years.
- 00:39:04In 2010, it acquired an operating system called
- 00:39:07QNX. While BlackBerry was still largely focused on
- 00:39:10smart phones at the time, this move has since proven
- 00:39:13to be a massively important acquisition for the company.
- 00:39:16I was very excited to be part of the charter to help
- 00:39:22BlackBerry in the next generation initiative and
- 00:39:25also as QNX was now on a world scale platform.
- 00:39:30Charles Eagan joined BlackBerry in 2011, largely
- 00:39:33because of its acquisition of his former workplace,
- 00:39:35QNX. BlackBerry's fiscal peak was in 2011 when it did
- 00:39:39nearly $20 billion in revenue, with over 80% of
- 00:39:42that being from hardware.
- 00:39:44Even Kim Kardashian was an unofficial brand ambassador,
- 00:39:47using the phones until 2016 when her last BlackBerry
- 00:39:50devastatingly died.
- 00:39:51BlackBerry. It's my heart and soul like I love it.
- 00:39:54I'll never get rid of it.
- 00:39:56And she wasn't alone with her devotion to the brand.
- 00:39:58Well past its prime era, many people held out from
- 00:40:01switching over to a completely touchscreen
- 00:40:03smart phone, seeing keyboardless phones as
- 00:40:05undesirable. But in 2007, everything changed.
- 00:40:10And we are calling it iPhone.
- 00:40:15Today, today, Apple is going to reinvent the phone.
- 00:40:22BlackBerry began making efforts to change up its
- 00:40:24tech in 2008.
- 00:40:25Its first fully touchscreen phone was the Storm, which
- 00:40:28had major hardware issues.
- 00:40:30It quickly returned to its former button-filled glory
- 00:40:33before again trying out a touchscreen device called
- 00:40:35the Z10 in 2013.
- 00:40:38See, at this point it was trying desperately to keep
- 00:40:41up with touchscreen smart phones like the iPhone that
- 00:40:43were becoming more and more popular.
- 00:40:45But device sales were plummeting.
- 00:40:47In 2011, it sold 50 million phones.
- 00:40:50But just two years later, after the release of the
- 00:40:52Z10, that number plunged to fewer than 30 million
- 00:40:55phones. And in the years following, sales continued
- 00:40:58to fall rapidly and its stock had a meteoric
- 00:41:00descent.
- 00:41:02I think we saw as we were getting closer to our
- 00:41:06BlackBerry 10 launch and seeing the headway that
- 00:41:09Apple and Android were making in this space, so I
- 00:41:13would say around that timeframe is when I think
- 00:41:16the the company realized that, yeah, we would need to
- 00:41:19make some significant changes.
- 00:41:21BlackBerry desperately tried to stay afloat by flooding
- 00:41:23the market with products.
- 00:41:25In the same time period it took Apple to release four
- 00:41:27iPhones, BlackBerry released over 30 unique
- 00:41:30devices. It made an effort to keep up with competition
- 00:41:33by switching to a QNX operating system, which it
- 00:41:36acquired the year prior, but to no avail.
- 00:41:40In 2012.
- 00:41:41Longtime co-CEO and founder Mike Lazaridis, along with
- 00:41:44co-CEO Jim Balsillie, parted ways with BlackBerry.
- 00:41:47By 2013, 4,500 jobs were cut and John Chen took over
- 00:41:51a CEO with a desire to turn BlackBerry's trajectory
- 00:41:54around.
- 00:41:55When I came in we're losing market share, we're writing
- 00:41:59off a lot of stuff, and we were losing money like
- 00:42:01crazy. We're talking billions of dollars every
- 00:42:04quarter. And so I have to put a stop to that.
- 00:42:07And that was kind of the state of it, just really
- 00:42:09more of a survival state at that time.
- 00:42:13You know, the fact that John Chen recognized early the
- 00:42:15pivot to software.
- 00:42:17I remember the day he appeared in Ottawa and spoke
- 00:42:20and I thought, okay, here's a leader with a plan.
- 00:42:23John Chen brings strong credentials to BlackBerry,
- 00:42:27as someone who has already successfully done
- 00:42:31turnarounds historically.
- 00:42:32Initially, Chen hoped to keep the iconic phones,
- 00:42:35turning them into a stable source of revenue.
- 00:42:38But after a few years, we realized that we would never
- 00:42:41get the volume up; it's a volume game.
- 00:42:43The moment had came and gone, so to speak.
- 00:42:46And so we made that pivotal shift to a software only
- 00:42:50company and focused on security and cyber and
- 00:42:53things of that sort.
- 00:42:54See, this pivotal shift Chen is referencing was largely
- 00:42:57dependent on a few key acquisitions that BlackBerry
- 00:43:00had made, one of which being QNX in 2010.
- 00:43:03The operating system that was later integrated into
- 00:43:05BlackBerry devices.
- 00:43:06And this was viewed as one of the silver bullets that
- 00:43:11BlackBerry needed for its portfolio moving forward.
- 00:43:14One thing we did was we took out security software, which
- 00:43:17used to be designed for the operating system or the new
- 00:43:21phones and moved that back into the auto.
- 00:43:25The others being the $1.4 billion acquisition of
- 00:43:28Cylance, an antivirus software firm and the $425
- 00:43:31million acquisition of good technology, a device
- 00:43:34management software company. These moves helped
- 00:43:37BlackBerry more swiftly alter its focus from
- 00:43:39hardware to software.
- 00:43:41QNX had previously been fairly well established as a
- 00:43:43software company dedicated to the automotive industry.
- 00:43:47And the fact we supported our devices for many years
- 00:43:50after we announced the exit of us manufacturing and
- 00:43:54designing our own smart phones.
- 00:43:55And now over the last number of years have fully
- 00:43:58transitioned into the enterprise and the
- 00:44:01foundational IoT software space.
- 00:44:03So once BlackBerry decided phones were not the future
- 00:44:06of the company in 2016, these acquisitions quickly
- 00:44:09became central to its business model.
- 00:44:12Currently, BlackBerry has two main business units: a
- 00:44:14cybersecurity business unit and an IoT business unit.
- 00:44:18These are two fast growing markets.
- 00:44:20I would like to think of BlackBerry as a company that
- 00:44:23can actually grow if they play their cards right.
- 00:44:27The main focus within the IoT business unit is
- 00:44:31automotive, and the BlackBerry IoT business unit
- 00:44:34features the QNX operating system, which is iconic and
- 00:44:38the de facto standard in automotive.
- 00:44:41So the QNX technology that we have in this vehicle
- 00:44:44before we even outfit it with any of our additional
- 00:44:47sensors, this is running a Ford Sync.
- 00:44:49So the infotainment is being used in the vehicle
- 00:44:53and this is prevalent in quite a few of the Ford
- 00:44:56vehicles.
- 00:44:57We now have the lion's share of embedded software in most
- 00:45:02of the cars. So this is really, is an offshoot of
- 00:45:06the result of the strategy shift in 2016, which is
- 00:45:10where we went from phone to non-phone.
- 00:45:13Now BlackBerry software is in 215 million cars.
- 00:45:16It could be powering your car's infotainment system or
- 00:45:19securing its connected and driver assist features.
- 00:45:22So what we have here is the MKZ concept vehicle.
- 00:45:26We use this for autonomous drive demonstrations.
- 00:45:29We have integrated a lot of varying hardware and
- 00:45:32equipment and sensors from various manufacturers.
- 00:45:36A lot of these embedded boards would be the size of
- 00:45:38a deck of cards. They'd be very inconspicuous in the
- 00:45:42vehicle.
- 00:45:43BlackBerry works with numerous automotive
- 00:45:45companies and all but one manufacturer.
- 00:45:48We work with all major automotive automotive OEM's,
- 00:45:52Audi, BMW, Ford, GM, Toyota, Volkswagen, Volvo,
- 00:45:58just to name a few that you may recognize.
- 00:46:01In the automotive IoT industry, BlackBerry says
- 00:46:03its QNX software is the market leader.
- 00:46:06The demand is actually strong for these advanced
- 00:46:10security and infotainment solutions because of a few
- 00:46:13reasons. Now, for example, there is an increasing
- 00:46:16demand for advanced driver systems and for advanced
- 00:46:19camera systems and also for advanced safety features.
- 00:46:24If we look at the industry opportunity itself, it's our
- 00:46:28expectation that the auto software industry is going
- 00:46:31to roughly triple in size from 2020 through 2030.
- 00:46:36And its cybersecurity unit is securing the back end of
- 00:46:39things like mobile banking apps and patient portals.
- 00:46:42So there's quite a rich cyber portfolio within
- 00:46:45BlackBerry, and that's securing banks and
- 00:46:49governments and large organizations and small and
- 00:46:52medium businesses.
- 00:46:54While the cybersecurity industry is lucrative with a
- 00:46:56market size of over $200 billion, it's also
- 00:46:59competitive. It's taking on tech giants like Microsoft,
- 00:47:02Snowflake and CrowdStrike.
- 00:47:04And in 2021, BlackBerry was only able to get a thin
- 00:47:07slice of that pie.
- 00:47:08Just under $500 million worth.
- 00:47:11The competition is very intense with the likes of
- 00:47:14Microsoft spending billions of dollars a year for
- 00:47:19product innovation.
- 00:47:20And BlackBerry so far has not been able to build any
- 00:47:24competitive advantages because of one major
- 00:47:27reason: they primarily cater to regulated
- 00:47:31industries such as government entities,
- 00:47:33financial services companies and the health
- 00:47:36care sector. But in my opinion, if BlackBerry were
- 00:47:40to become a well-recognized,
- 00:47:43fast-growing cybersecurity company, they have to focus
- 00:47:48more on their go-to market approach to come out of
- 00:47:51these regulated industries and to capture market share
- 00:47:55in the broad market, the mass market opportunity.
- 00:47:58BlackBerry has recently received more revenue from
- 00:48:00the cybersecurity side of its business, but analysts
- 00:48:03are more confident in the growth potential of the
- 00:48:05automotive IoT sector.
- 00:48:07I think that the company can reach a likely a lower peak
- 00:48:13than we've seen in the past, but a more sustainable
- 00:48:18growth trajectory and potentially more profitable
- 00:48:22future as well.
- 00:48:23The margin percentage basis.
- 00:48:26While it was a major shift to go from manufacturing
- 00:48:29cellphones to cybersecurity and software, it was also a
- 00:48:31shift that made sense for BlackBerry.
- 00:48:33Even when they used to be a smart phone manufacturer,
- 00:48:36they always, the BlackBerry had a good name, a good
- 00:48:40recognition among consumers for a company that
- 00:48:44prioritized security features.
- 00:48:46So BlackBerry is not new to offering high grade, high
- 00:48:50quality security features.
- 00:48:53Its reputation for being secure was easily
- 00:48:55transferable to part of its new enterprise in the
- 00:48:58automotive industry.
- 00:48:59Keeping the internet of things and cars safe from
- 00:49:01cyber attacks is increasingly important as
- 00:49:03cars become more autonomous.
- 00:49:05Security researchers have hacked into vehicles and
- 00:49:09proven that they could take over control of the vehicle.
- 00:49:13And I do think that there's the potential for payment
- 00:49:17systems to be compromised or personal information to
- 00:49:20be taken. And when you think of a car, it's more
- 00:49:25like ten plus computers than one computer.
- 00:49:29I do not necessarily think that you're going to see the
- 00:49:34likes of returns that BlackBerry enjoyed at their
- 00:49:37peak, when they were a smart phone manufacturer, at
- 00:49:40least for the next decade.
- 00:49:42But then again, if BlackBerry plays their cards
- 00:49:44right, they might be able to turn profitable.
- 00:49:47So while there's a chance BlackBerry hasn't been on
- 00:49:49anyone's mind in nearly a decade, it's possible that
- 00:49:52you interact with something it helped develop almost
- 00:49:54every day.
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