Nukes are way scarier than you think

00:47:04
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U51yx3FwAY

الملخص

TLDRThe video vividly illustrates the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear weapon detonation in Washington, DC, detailing the immediate destruction, long-term radiation effects, and the geopolitical implications of nuclear weapons. It explains the science behind nuclear fission and fusion, the historical context of nuclear arms development, and the current state of global nuclear politics. The concept of deterrence is emphasized as a crucial strategy in preventing nuclear war, highlighting the delicate balance of power among nuclear-armed states. The video concludes with a call for increased awareness and diplomatic efforts to manage nuclear risks.

الوجبات الجاهزة

  • 🌍 Nuclear weapons can cause unprecedented destruction.
  • 💥 A nuclear detonation would vaporize everything within a half-mile radius.
  • ⚛️ Fission and fusion are the processes that release energy in nuclear weapons.
  • 🛡️ Deterrence prevents nuclear war by ensuring mutual destruction.
  • 📉 There are approximately 12,000 nuclear warheads globally.
  • 🔍 The US and Russia hold the majority of these weapons.
  • ⚠️ Fear plays a crucial role in nuclear deterrence strategies.
  • 📜 A no-first-use policy can help reduce nuclear tensions.
  • 🌐 Ongoing diplomatic efforts are essential to manage nuclear risks.
  • 🔮 The future of nuclear weapons remains uncertain and complex.

الجدول الزمني

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The video begins with a dramatic visualization of a nuclear weapon landing in Washington, DC, illustrating the catastrophic effects of such an event, including immediate destruction, a massive blast wave, and long-lasting radiation poisoning. The narrator emphasizes the potential for widespread devastation and the reality of nuclear capabilities in the world today.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    The discussion shifts to the global political landscape surrounding nuclear weapons, highlighting the ongoing threat and the reasons behind the resurgence of nuclear arms in international relations. The narrator introduces the concept of nuclear weapons as a central element in global politics, urging viewers to pay attention to this critical issue.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    The narrator explains the basic science behind nuclear weapons, focusing on atoms as the building blocks of matter and how they can be transformed into energy. The discussion includes the principles of fission and fusion, emphasizing the immense energy potential contained within atoms and the implications for nuclear weaponry.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The video delves into the historical context of nuclear weapons, tracing their development from the 1930s in Germany to the Manhattan Project and the subsequent arms race during the Cold War. The narrator highlights the shift in global conflict dynamics brought about by the introduction of nuclear weapons.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Modern nuclear weapons are described, including their design and delivery methods. The narrator explains the mechanics of a thermonuclear weapon, detailing how fission triggers fusion to create unprecedented destruction, and illustrates the potential impact on cities like Washington, DC.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    The current global nuclear arsenal is examined, revealing the existence of approximately 12,000 nuclear warheads, primarily held by the US and Russia. The narrator discusses the implications of this stockpile for global security and the ongoing threat posed by nuclear weapons.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    The concept of deterrence is introduced, explaining how the fear of mutual destruction prevents direct conflict between nuclear powers. The narrator discusses the psychological and strategic elements of deterrence, including the importance of credible threats and the role of red lines in international relations.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    The video applies the concept of deterrence to real-world scenarios, including the conflict in Ukraine and the dynamics between nuclear powers like the US, Russia, India, and Pakistan. The narrator illustrates how nuclear deterrence shapes geopolitical interactions and influences military strategies.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:47:04

    Finally, the narrator reflects on the challenges of nuclear disarmament and the complexities of international relations in a world with nuclear weapons. The video concludes with a call for strategic thinking and diplomacy to manage the risks associated with nuclear arms, emphasizing the need for ongoing dialogue and cooperation.

اعرض المزيد

الخريطة الذهنية

فيديو أسئلة وأجوبة

  • What happens if a nuclear weapon detonates in Washington, DC?

    A nuclear detonation would cause immediate destruction within a half-mile radius, with severe injuries and fatalities extending up to five miles due to heat and blast waves.

  • How do nuclear weapons work?

    Nuclear weapons operate through fission (splitting atoms) or fusion (combining atoms), releasing massive amounts of energy.

  • What is deterrence in nuclear politics?

    Deterrence is the strategy of preventing nuclear war by ensuring that the consequences of an attack would be catastrophic for both sides.

  • How many nuclear warheads exist today?

    There are approximately 12,000 nuclear warheads globally, primarily held by the US and Russia.

  • What is the current state of nuclear arms control?

    While there have been reductions in nuclear arsenals since the Cold War, tensions remain high, and new nuclear powers are emerging.

  • What role does fear play in nuclear deterrence?

    Fear of mutual destruction prevents countries from engaging in direct conflict, as the consequences would be too severe.

  • What are the risks of nuclear weapons today?

    The risks include accidental launches, miscalculations, and the potential for rogue states to use nuclear weapons.

  • What is the significance of the no-first-use policy?

    A no-first-use policy indicates that a country will not use nuclear weapons unless first attacked by an adversary with nuclear weapons.

  • How does the US maintain its nuclear deterrent?

    The US maintains a nuclear triad of land-based missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and strategic bombers to ensure a credible deterrent.

  • What is the future of nuclear weapons?

    The future remains uncertain, with ongoing developments in nuclear arsenals and the need for renewed diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation.

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الترجمات
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التمرير التلقائي:
  • 00:00:00
    (plane engine roaring)
  • 00:00:03
    - I'm in Washington, DC right now,
  • 00:00:04
    and I want to visualize for you what it would look like
  • 00:00:07
    if a nuclear weapon landed on the nation's capital.
  • 00:00:10
    So, for our scenario, there is a nuclear weapon
  • 00:00:12
    headed towards the city right now.
  • 00:00:15
    (dramatic music)
  • 00:00:18
    A large nuclear weapon flying
  • 00:00:20
    headed towards Washington, DC.
  • 00:00:23
    The actual bomb is actually in here.
  • 00:00:26
    This cone that's about two meters tall, six feet.
  • 00:00:29
    It's falling back into the atmosphere.
  • 00:00:31
    Here it comes.
  • 00:00:33
    And then,
  • 00:00:38
    for a moment, right here is the hottest thing
  • 00:00:41
    in our solar system, hotter than the sun.
  • 00:00:44
    100 million degrees Celsius as it expands out.
  • 00:00:49
    Everything around it turns into dust.
  • 00:00:51
    I mean, smaller than dust.
  • 00:00:53
    Atoms are ripped apart.
  • 00:00:55
    This fireball instantly vaporizes everything
  • 00:00:57
    within a half a mile radius.
  • 00:01:00
    And here comes the blast wave,
  • 00:01:02
    a wall of high-pressure air that is moving faster
  • 00:01:05
    than the speed of sound.
  • 00:01:07
    It creates wind behind it that is faster
  • 00:01:09
    than anything ever observed in nature.
  • 00:01:14
    Everything within two and a half miles is leveled.
  • 00:01:17
    And then there's the heat wave,
  • 00:01:19
    which burns everything within five miles.
  • 00:01:22
    Nearly everyone in this city is either dead
  • 00:01:24
    or severely injured.
  • 00:01:28
    Everything that can be on fire is now on fire
  • 00:01:31
    as this huge mushroom cloud rises into the air,
  • 00:01:34
    dragging with it a storm of dust, dirt, and debris.
  • 00:01:38
    But this isn't normal dust anymore.
  • 00:01:41
    The bomb has done something to it, to its atoms,
  • 00:01:45
    making them fall apart in slow motion,
  • 00:01:47
    shooting out invisible, deadly energy.
  • 00:01:50
    This poison dust drifts all across this region.
  • 00:01:53
    It clings to soil and plants and people,
  • 00:01:56
    hundreds of miles away.
  • 00:01:58
    (soft music)
  • 00:02:00
    These poisoned atoms will keep firing off radiation
  • 00:02:03
    for years, for decades, centuries, even thousands of years.
  • 00:02:09
    This is a disaster that humans made.
  • 00:02:11
    And that was just for one of these cones.
  • 00:02:14
    A rocket fired from an American submarine
  • 00:02:17
    can carry eight of these cones at once.
  • 00:02:20
    If all of those hit one target,
  • 00:02:22
    it would be a much worse situation.
  • 00:02:25
    (soft music)
  • 00:02:30
    A lot of global politics centers around this,
  • 00:02:33
    making sure this does not happen.
  • 00:02:36
    But everything I just showed you is very possible.
  • 00:02:39
    We have the capabilities to do this right now.
  • 00:02:42
    And in fact, a lot of countries
  • 00:02:43
    have their finger on the trigger,
  • 00:02:45
    able to launch one of these at a moment's notice.
  • 00:02:48
    And I've spent a very long time trying to understand why.
  • 00:02:52
    Why have we done this?
  • 00:02:53
    And why these nuclear weapons,
  • 00:02:55
    which were famous during the Cold War, are back.
  • 00:02:58
    They're back in a new way.
  • 00:02:59
    They're once again becoming the center of global politics.
  • 00:03:02
    - We are entering one of the most dangerous periods
  • 00:03:05
    in nuclear history.
  • 00:03:06
    We're on the cusp of this third age.
  • 00:03:08
    That nuclear is back.
  • 00:03:09
    - That's Sam from Search Party.
  • 00:03:11
    He also made a video about nuclear weapons,
  • 00:03:13
    but it's different than mine.
  • 00:03:15
    It went live yesterday.
  • 00:03:16
    In this video, I'm gonna show you how these things work,
  • 00:03:18
    what countries have them,
  • 00:03:20
    and how they're used on the global stage.
  • 00:03:22
    And then Sam's video will take you
  • 00:03:23
    into this specific moment in time
  • 00:03:26
    and what to look out for going forward.
  • 00:03:28
    Help you understand why nuclear weapons
  • 00:03:29
    are back on the world stage.
  • 00:03:33
    We're headed into a world that is more and more informed
  • 00:03:36
    by nuclear weapons and nuclear politics.
  • 00:03:38
    So it's time we start paying attention.
  • 00:03:40
    Let me show you.
  • 00:03:42
    (gentle music)
  • 00:03:45
    Everyone's telling me that they don't like
  • 00:03:47
    that my screen shakes.
  • 00:03:48
    Listen, I can't help it.
  • 00:03:50
    This thing's big.
  • 00:03:51
    It's unruly.
  • 00:03:53
    Sorry.
  • 00:03:54
    Okay, so what is this thing?
  • 00:03:58
    Well, it's a bomb, obviously, a very destructive bomb.
  • 00:04:04
    And it's one that messes with the very building blocks
  • 00:04:07
    of everything, the atom.
  • 00:04:09
    - [Narrator] Atoms are the tiny building blocks,
  • 00:04:12
    which make up everything in the world.
  • 00:04:14
    - So an atom, of course,
  • 00:04:15
    is the smallest unit of matter, right?
  • 00:04:18
    And it's made up of several subatomic particles,
  • 00:04:21
    electrons, protons, neutrons.
  • 00:04:23
    - I talked to Destin from the YouTube channel
  • 00:04:25
    Smarter Every Day.
  • 00:04:26
    He's a real scientist, engineer.
  • 00:04:28
    He's making a bunch of videos on nuclear energy.
  • 00:04:30
    And I talked to him because I wanted to make sure
  • 00:04:31
    I was grounded in my understanding
  • 00:04:34
    of the physics of a nuclear bomb.
  • 00:04:35
    Everything is atoms.
  • 00:04:37
    Everything that you can touch, the air,
  • 00:04:40
    everything is atoms, different kinds of atoms.
  • 00:04:42
    And these atoms have a little secret hiding in them.
  • 00:04:47
    Every single atom can be turned into energy.
  • 00:04:51
    Like actually matter, like atoms and energy
  • 00:04:55
    are the same thing.
  • 00:04:56
    They're just in different states.
  • 00:04:57
    - When I was growing up,
  • 00:04:58
    dad used to always say matter is frozen energy.
  • 00:05:01
    - Like this could be turned into energy
  • 00:05:03
    and actually a lot of energy that could like fuel a car
  • 00:05:07
    or like power my house or like fly me to the moon.
  • 00:05:10
    And it doesn't take that much mass
  • 00:05:12
    to create a lot of energy.
  • 00:05:13
    Let me show you this really quick.
  • 00:05:18
    This little piece of metal
  • 00:05:20
    is probably a little more than a gram.
  • 00:05:23
    Not very heavy, not a lot of mass, right?
  • 00:05:27
    If we zoom way into this little clip,
  • 00:05:29
    you're gonna see a bunch of atoms.
  • 00:05:33
    Now there are some powerful forces working on this atom,
  • 00:05:37
    keeping the nucleus really tightly glued together,
  • 00:05:40
    keeping the atoms separate from each other
  • 00:05:42
    so they don't like blob into one another.
  • 00:05:44
    And thank God for this
  • 00:05:45
    because otherwise nothing would be solid.
  • 00:05:47
    You would sit in a chair and just sort of fall through.
  • 00:05:49
    There's a lot of forces happening down with the atoms,
  • 00:05:52
    keeping everything stable, everything solid.
  • 00:05:55
    We like these forces.
  • 00:05:57
    They make it so that my little paperclip thingy
  • 00:05:59
    doesn't explode
  • 00:06:00
    and everything doesn't sort of spontaneously come apart.
  • 00:06:03
    Stable, good.
  • 00:06:04
    - Those forces, those subatomic forces
  • 00:06:06
    are very, very strong.
  • 00:06:07
    - Now you can break these forces holding atoms together.
  • 00:06:12
    If you rock their world hard enough,
  • 00:06:13
    they will kind of rearrange.
  • 00:06:15
    They will break.
  • 00:06:16
    And then they'll quickly like reorganize
  • 00:06:18
    to try to form some sort of stable atom.
  • 00:06:21
    But in the process,
  • 00:06:22
    a little bit of matter is left with nowhere to go.
  • 00:06:26
    It can't bond to anything.
  • 00:06:27
    And so it spontaneously turns into energy.
  • 00:06:31
    Every single thing around you,
  • 00:06:33
    everything could be turned into energy,
  • 00:06:36
    an enormous amount of energy.
  • 00:06:37
    How much energy?
  • 00:06:39
    I'm glad you asked
  • 00:06:41
    because this is the moment
  • 00:06:42
    that I've been waiting for since I was a child,
  • 00:06:45
    where in my real adult career,
  • 00:06:47
    I'm going to be able to invoke the famous equation
  • 00:06:51
    of our very own Albert Einstein.
  • 00:06:54
    Yep, I'm pulling, I'm doing this.
  • 00:06:55
    I'm doing the chalkboard thing.
  • 00:06:59
    For those of you who already know about E equals MC squared
  • 00:07:02
    and exactly what it means,
  • 00:07:04
    like skip like 45 seconds ahead
  • 00:07:06
    because I'm about to explain it in a way
  • 00:07:08
    that I've always wanted someone to explain it to me.
  • 00:07:11
    And I'm gonna do that for you.
  • 00:07:13
    (soft music)
  • 00:07:18
    Could have guessed that was gonna happen.
  • 00:07:23
    So what does Einstein say about how much energy
  • 00:07:26
    is contained in my little paper clippy thing?
  • 00:07:28
    The E is energy.
  • 00:07:32
    The M is mass.
  • 00:07:34
    How much mass are we turning into energy?
  • 00:07:38
    And the C is the speed of light in meters per second.
  • 00:07:43
    Speed.
  • 00:07:48
    The mass of my paper clip is one gram.
  • 00:07:51
    Because this is in kilograms, it's gonna be 0.001.
  • 00:07:54
    I just need to times this by speed of light squared
  • 00:07:59
    is about 299 million meters per second.
  • 00:08:03
    But we have to times it by itself,
  • 00:08:05
    which comes out to be 89 quadrillion,
  • 00:08:09
    875 trillion,
  • 00:08:12
    570 billion,
  • 00:08:14
    873 million,
  • 00:08:17
    681 thousand,
  • 00:08:20
    764.
  • 00:08:27
    Whoa.
  • 00:08:28
    So my paper clip mass times this.
  • 00:08:30
    Einstein says we have to multiply that big number
  • 00:08:33
    by the mass of this paper clip
  • 00:08:35
    to find out how much energy is inside of it.
  • 00:08:38
    And if you do that math with my one gram,
  • 00:08:40
    you get 89 trillion joules.
  • 00:08:44
    That's enough energy to power 100,000 homes for two weeks
  • 00:08:47
    or one home for 2,000 years.
  • 00:08:52
    Just inside of this.
  • 00:08:54
    Because of that.
  • 00:08:57
    (soft music)
  • 00:08:59
    Okay, giant caveat for everyone watching
  • 00:09:02
    and those who study physics will be clamoring for this.
  • 00:09:06
    You can't actually do that with like an iron paper clip.
  • 00:09:09
    The amount of energy you would need
  • 00:09:10
    to like turn this into energy
  • 00:09:13
    would sort of be more than the energy you get out of it.
  • 00:09:16
    To actually do this, to release the energy from matter,
  • 00:09:19
    you need different kinds of atoms,
  • 00:09:20
    like big unstable ones, like the ones we see in uranium.
  • 00:09:24
    My point here is not that this is ever gonna like break
  • 00:09:26
    and turn into energy, but that when you mess with atoms,
  • 00:09:29
    the bonds within atoms,
  • 00:09:31
    and you release a little bit of matter into energy,
  • 00:09:34
    you don't need very much to create a huge amount.
  • 00:09:37
    That's what we're about to see in real life.
  • 00:09:39
    - So fission is a big atom splitting.
  • 00:09:42
    Fusion, little atoms coming together.
  • 00:09:45
    - I had a fun time watching Destin show me
  • 00:09:47
    how fission works in his studio
  • 00:09:49
    with his very cute looking neutrons and mouse traps.
  • 00:09:53
    He made a whole video about it that you can check out.
  • 00:09:54
    Now for most of time, the only place
  • 00:09:57
    that this sort of turning matter into energy was happening
  • 00:10:00
    was not here on earth, but in the center of stars.
  • 00:10:04
    - And this is the kind of stuff that happens
  • 00:10:06
    in the core of the sun, for example,
  • 00:10:07
    - where immense heat and pressure
  • 00:10:09
    is smashing atoms together so hard
  • 00:10:12
    that they fuse.
  • 00:10:13
    They rearrange a little bit,
  • 00:10:14
    a little bit of matter that isn't fused,
  • 00:10:17
    turns into energy and you get the literal sun.
  • 00:10:20
    That's called fusion.
  • 00:10:23
    But then in the 1900s,
  • 00:10:26
    the humans on earth decided they wanted to start
  • 00:10:29
    to do something like this themselves.
  • 00:10:33
    As I talked about nuclear politics
  • 00:10:35
    is ramping up in a new way.
  • 00:10:37
    Iran is the best example of where this is clearly happening
  • 00:10:39
    where there's just like a lot of secrecy
  • 00:10:42
    and vague information as a negotiating tactic.
  • 00:10:44
    And it's a really normal thing to feel like
  • 00:10:46
    you're just left with a bunch of headlines and leaks
  • 00:10:48
    and half answers, but no real clear picture,
  • 00:10:50
    which is exactly why I am a giant fan
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    who is the sponsor of today's video.
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    I mean, let's just go back to the Iran example.
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    You can see here on Ground News in one view,
  • 00:11:32
    a bunch of different headlines, like pull these two out.
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    And their headline emphasizes a framing
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    Whereas this Israeli outlet has a more mixed record.
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    and says clearly and slightly misleadingly
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    that Iran has enriched uranium for 10 nuclear bombs
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    and is continuing production.
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    Same story, two totally different angles.
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    Ground News is the only platform I know of
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    where you can see all of these headlines side by side
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    avoiding consciously or unconsciously.
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    So small price to pay for being informed.
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    Thank you, Ground News, for sponsoring today's video,
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    for being a longtime partner, for doing what you do.
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    And with that, let's keep talking about nukes.
  • 00:12:59
    (soft music)
  • 00:13:02
    It was the 1930s in Germany
  • 00:13:04
    and some scientists were tinkering with atoms
  • 00:13:06
    and they found a way to break some atoms apart
  • 00:13:09
    and get in on this insanity of E equals MC squared.
  • 00:13:12
    - Pretty crazy how safe nuclear power is.
  • 00:13:15
    But nuclear weapons are scary, aren't they?
  • 00:13:17
    - Yeah.
  • 00:13:17
    - When uranium-235 exists in nature,
  • 00:13:21
    it's not real happy.
  • 00:13:22
    It's kind of unstable.
  • 00:13:23
    If a U-235 atom ever gets hit by a neutron,
  • 00:13:27
    which I have, I happen to have a neutron here.
  • 00:13:31
    If U-235 ever gets hit by a neutron,
  • 00:13:34
    then it gets really unstable and then it breaks apart.
  • 00:13:39
    That right there breaks into two other atoms.
  • 00:13:43
    I threw my neutron across the room.
  • 00:13:45
    That's dangerous when you've got U-235 around.
  • 00:13:47
    I think of U-235 like a mousetrap.
  • 00:13:52
    So if you think about it, you've got this atom chilling out
  • 00:13:55
    and it's got all these neutrons right there, ready to go.
  • 00:14:00
    If it ever gets triggered, then it will fire
  • 00:14:03
    and it will throw off these other neutrons and they go off.
  • 00:14:07
    And so if you have a clever arrangement
  • 00:14:10
    of more U-235 atoms around that,
  • 00:14:13
    then you can start what's called a chain reaction.
  • 00:14:16
    - [Narrator] Those neutrons bombard other uranium atoms,
  • 00:14:19
    causing them to split and split still others.
  • 00:14:24
    The result, a chain reaction.
  • 00:14:27
    - They were doing fission,
  • 00:14:28
    the breaking of big unstable atoms apart.
  • 00:14:30
    And this wasn't as powerful as the fusion,
  • 00:14:34
    the combining of atoms that's happening
  • 00:14:35
    in the center of the sun,
  • 00:14:36
    but it was still unlike anything the world had ever seen.
  • 00:14:39
    - Under Hitler, the country was becoming
  • 00:14:41
    the dominant power in Central Europe.
  • 00:14:43
    - Germany was kind of getting ready
  • 00:14:44
    to take over the entire world.
  • 00:14:46
    And so they thought, what if we weaponize
  • 00:14:48
    this new nuclear breaking thing we invented?
  • 00:14:51
    And Einstein, the E=mc2 guy was alive at this time
  • 00:14:55
    and watching his equations be turned into weapons.
  • 00:14:58
    And Einstein writes this letter to the American president
  • 00:15:01
    urging the U.S. to make the bomb before Germany does.
  • 00:15:04
    And this is where we get into Oppenheimer,
  • 00:15:06
    the Manhattan Project, brilliant physicists
  • 00:15:09
    building atomic bombs in the desert,
  • 00:15:11
    racing against time during World War II.
  • 00:15:13
    The U.S. of course wins this race for the nuclear weapon.
  • 00:15:16
    They dropped two of these fission bombs on Japan in 1945.
  • 00:15:20
    The war is over and the world has changed forever.
  • 00:15:24
    Nothing would ever be the same.
  • 00:15:26
    It was the beginning of a new way of global conflict.
  • 00:15:30
    A few years later, the Soviets made one of their own
  • 00:15:33
    and thus begins a new race.
  • 00:15:35
    Who can make the bigger bomb?
  • 00:15:38
    And this is where the U.S. is like,
  • 00:15:39
    let's not just do the thing where we break atoms apart,
  • 00:15:42
    let's do what the sun is doing, fuse the atoms together.
  • 00:15:46
    That's way more powerful.
  • 00:15:47
    And they figure it out just a few years later
  • 00:15:50
    and the results are insane.
  • 00:15:52
    - [Speaker] Those are capable of megatons of power.
  • 00:15:56
    A thousand times more powerful.
  • 00:15:57
    Because apparently leveling a city was not powerful enough.
  • 00:16:04
    (upbeat music)
  • 00:16:09
    - Let me show you what today's nukes look like
  • 00:16:11
    and how they work.
  • 00:16:12
    This is a modern nuclear weapon,
  • 00:16:14
    sometimes called a thermonuclear weapon, hydrogen bomb.
  • 00:16:18
    This cone is about the same height as an American male.
  • 00:16:21
    And the actual bomb is in here.
  • 00:16:23
    We don't know exactly how big it is,
  • 00:16:24
    but we know it's shaped like a peanut.
  • 00:16:27
    This cone needs to be mounted on something
  • 00:16:30
    to deliver it to the target.
  • 00:16:32
    In this example, it's on a huge rocket
  • 00:16:36
    that flies to space, can carry this nuke
  • 00:16:39
    like over a thousand kilometers away.
  • 00:16:41
    Eventually the rocket part falls away
  • 00:16:43
    and the cone starts falling towards its target.
  • 00:16:51
    And then when it hits its pre-programmed altitude,
  • 00:16:54
    it detonates.
  • 00:16:56
    But watch what happens, this is crazy.
  • 00:16:58
    It's actually three bombs.
  • 00:16:59
    It starts with just a regular old explosive bomb,
  • 00:17:02
    no nuclear stuff yet.
  • 00:17:05
    But this bomb inside of this very small peanut shaped space
  • 00:17:09
    triggers a fission bomb.
  • 00:17:12
    The first type that we invented,
  • 00:17:13
    the one that overcomes the forces,
  • 00:17:14
    keeping an atom stable and breaks them apart
  • 00:17:16
    and turns a tiny bit of matter
  • 00:17:17
    into a huge amount of energy.
  • 00:17:19
    So there's a fission reaction happening
  • 00:17:21
    and that shoots out a huge amount of energy
  • 00:17:24
    at the speed of light
  • 00:17:25
    that bounces off all these shiny beryllium walls.
  • 00:17:28
    And then it hits this, and this is the final one.
  • 00:17:31
    It's so hot in here, 100 million degrees Celsius,
  • 00:17:34
    that we're basically in the core of a star.
  • 00:17:37
    It's actually hotter than the core of our sun.
  • 00:17:39
    Hot enough to do things that stars do.
  • 00:17:42
    So now in this third bomb, the big one,
  • 00:17:45
    hydrogen atoms are being smashed together into a new form.
  • 00:17:49
    A little bit of matter is escaping into E equals MC square
  • 00:17:52
    being multiplied by the speed of light squared.
  • 00:17:56
    And what you get is total destruction.
  • 00:18:03
    Yeah, I mean, we made that.
  • 00:18:06
    We made that, that is possible.
  • 00:18:08
    Those big ones have never been used in war
  • 00:18:11
    and hopefully they never will.
  • 00:18:12
    Okay, but how big are these?
  • 00:18:13
    Let's put them on a city, my city, Washington, DC.
  • 00:18:17
    Terrible thought, but we gotta do this exercise.
  • 00:18:23
    If you were to drop a fission bomb,
  • 00:18:25
    like the ones we dropped on Japan
  • 00:18:26
    that killed hundreds of thousands,
  • 00:18:28
    it would look like this.
  • 00:18:31
    Upgrade that to a fusion bomb,
  • 00:18:34
    like the ones deployed today,
  • 00:18:35
    and it would look like this.
  • 00:18:38
    Estimated 350,000 people dead in minutes.
  • 00:18:42
    During the Cold War, we made these things huge.
  • 00:18:44
    If you detonate the biggest fusion bomb ever tested,
  • 00:18:47
    it would look like this.
  • 00:18:51
    The city would be gone and people 40 miles away
  • 00:18:55
    in like Baltimore would have life-threatening burns
  • 00:18:57
    from the heat wave.
  • 00:18:58
    300 square miles of buildings destroyed.
  • 00:19:01
    I mean, this is a horrible possibility
  • 00:19:04
    that we have invented, and we have a lot of them.
  • 00:19:08
    (ominous music)
  • 00:19:16
    Let's look at a map.
  • 00:19:17
    I like looking at maps.
  • 00:19:18
    We can't go too long without looking at a map.
  • 00:19:24
    Today, there are around 12,000 nuclear warheads
  • 00:19:28
    somewhere on Earth.
  • 00:19:29
    That's 12,000, 12,000.
  • 00:19:31
    That's enough firepower to level every sizable city
  • 00:19:34
    on the planet several times over.
  • 00:19:38
    The world used to have way more,
  • 00:19:40
    like more than triple that during the Cold War.
  • 00:19:42
    Almost every one of these nuclear warheads today
  • 00:19:45
    is in the hands of two countries, the US and Russia.
  • 00:19:49
    But in total, there are nine countries
  • 00:19:51
    that possess these destructive bombs.
  • 00:19:54
    And one of these countries doesn't admit
  • 00:19:56
    that they have nuclear weapons, but they do.
  • 00:19:58
    And America's nukes aren't just in America.
  • 00:20:01
    They're scattered all over the world,
  • 00:20:03
    in ally countries, on land, in air,
  • 00:20:06
    deep in the ocean, lurking in submarines,
  • 00:20:09
    in a configuration that the US calls its nuclear posture.
  • 00:20:13
    It's one of the most important parts
  • 00:20:15
    of America's military strategy today.
  • 00:20:17
    And we're about to see how it actually works in real life
  • 00:20:20
    because these 12,000 nukes shape our entire world.
  • 00:20:24
    Their threat is ever-present.
  • 00:20:26
    And so it turns the chessboard of geopolitics
  • 00:20:29
    into a different thing than it was before.
  • 00:20:36
    - Nuclear weapons, of course, did revolutionize warfare,
  • 00:20:39
    so Bernard Brody in 1946 calls them the absolute weapon.
  • 00:20:42
    He says that basically before the bomb was invented,
  • 00:20:44
    the fundamental purpose of military establishments
  • 00:20:47
    was to plan for, fight, and win wars,
  • 00:20:49
    and now it would be to prevent them altogether.
  • 00:20:51
    - So what stops countries from nuking each other?
  • 00:20:55
    Well, uh-oh, my camera's shaking again.
  • 00:20:58
    See you in the comments, folks.
  • 00:21:00
    I don't have a way to stabilize this
  • 00:21:01
    in a way that really keeps it from bouncing around.
  • 00:21:05
    If you have suggestions on a better camera arm,
  • 00:21:08
    I'll take it.
  • 00:21:10
    So the central idea of all of this is pretty simple,
  • 00:21:12
    pretty intuitive, kind of,
  • 00:21:13
    but then it kind of messes with your brain in weird ways,
  • 00:21:15
    and we'll see how that works.
  • 00:21:18
    You've got these two big empires, they're rivals,
  • 00:21:20
    they're competing with each other
  • 00:21:21
    as big countries do and have always done,
  • 00:21:23
    and maybe someday they won't, but they do for now.
  • 00:21:25
    If there's no nukes in this equation,
  • 00:21:28
    history has taught us that these two big empires
  • 00:21:30
    will fight each other over land, over influence,
  • 00:21:33
    over resources, over honor, over who knows.
  • 00:21:35
    They will fight each other.
  • 00:21:36
    That always has happened.
  • 00:21:37
    That is the central threat of humanity,
  • 00:21:39
    is big, powerful entities will fight each other.
  • 00:21:42
    In recent centuries, it's gotten really destructive.
  • 00:21:44
    Think of Europe and Asia in the 1940s.
  • 00:21:47
    Countries are fighting because there's a chance
  • 00:21:50
    that one of them can win.
  • 00:21:51
    Okay, now, after 1945, put nukes on the board
  • 00:21:55
    and watch what happens.
  • 00:21:56
    - This new weapon that could inflict damage
  • 00:21:58
    of the kind that we just never before imagined
  • 00:22:01
    in human history.
  • 00:22:02
    - Now, if these two empires get into a war with each other,
  • 00:22:04
    they both know that it will escalate.
  • 00:22:08
    They will keep using more and more extreme force
  • 00:22:12
    until eventually one side will use nukes,
  • 00:22:16
    to which the other will respond with their own nukes.
  • 00:22:18
    And then it's game over for everyone.
  • 00:22:21
    Nobody wins, everybody loses, the world is on fire.
  • 00:22:25
    The concept of victory becomes irrelevant
  • 00:22:27
    because everyone's dead.
  • 00:22:29
    This creates a calculus of fear,
  • 00:22:32
    an understanding that you will inflict
  • 00:22:34
    way more consequences on yourself
  • 00:22:36
    if you go to war with your geopolitical rival.
  • 00:22:39
    And this threat of total destruction
  • 00:22:41
    is stronger than the urge to fight and dominate.
  • 00:22:45
    After World War II,
  • 00:22:46
    after we witnessed this destructive bomb
  • 00:22:49
    in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, something changed.
  • 00:22:52
    We crossed a line of understanding
  • 00:22:54
    that there really was something
  • 00:22:55
    that could really sort of end it all.
  • 00:22:57
    - It's about convincing the other side
  • 00:22:59
    that attacking is just not worth it.
  • 00:23:01
    Convincing both sides that the price is just too high.
  • 00:23:03
    And unfortunately that means deterrence.
  • 00:23:05
    - Deterrence, that is the word, that is the key concept.
  • 00:23:09
    Comes from this root of like avoidance of something
  • 00:23:13
    because of terror, fear.
  • 00:23:15
    Terror prevents you from acting.
  • 00:23:17
    And it weirdly, strangely, paradoxically kind of works.
  • 00:23:22
    Though this is debated by scholars
  • 00:23:23
    and when I was in grad school
  • 00:23:24
    for peace and conflict resolution,
  • 00:23:26
    there was a lot of compelling evidence
  • 00:23:27
    that deterrence doesn't work,
  • 00:23:28
    but I'm not getting into the literature right now.
  • 00:23:30
    It is widely accepted that one of the major reasons
  • 00:23:33
    great powers have not gone to war with each other directly
  • 00:23:36
    in the last 70, 80 years is because of nuclear weapons.
  • 00:23:39
    For those who wanna dispute that claim,
  • 00:23:41
    I am so stoked for your good faith argument
  • 00:23:44
    and dissent in the comments.
  • 00:23:46
    I will read it and respond 'cause I love this stuff.
  • 00:23:49
    Anyway, global politics today leans heavily
  • 00:23:51
    on this grim logic, this balance of deterrence
  • 00:23:55
    created by very destructive bombs that split atoms.
  • 00:23:59
    But in order for deterrence to work,
  • 00:24:00
    it can't just be the bombs.
  • 00:24:02
    It has to have some other important ingredients.
  • 00:24:05
    (upbeat music)
  • 00:24:08
    First up, the threat needs to be believable.
  • 00:24:10
    It needs to be credible.
  • 00:24:11
    Your enemy has to believe that you will actually,
  • 00:24:14
    credibly fire back a nuke,
  • 00:24:16
    that you're not just making empty threats
  • 00:24:18
    and bluffing all the time,
  • 00:24:19
    that you actually have the ability and appetite
  • 00:24:22
    to fire one of these things off.
  • 00:24:24
    What that means is you gotta have these things
  • 00:24:26
    ready to go at all times.
  • 00:24:27
    You gotta have maps of targets to hit,
  • 00:24:29
    thousands of targets in some cases,
  • 00:24:32
    like here in these giant maps in a bunker command center
  • 00:24:35
    that the U.S. had showing all the targets
  • 00:24:37
    in the Soviet Union that they were ready to hit.
  • 00:24:39
    The Soviets, of course, had a similar map
  • 00:24:41
    of all the targets they were ready to hit.
  • 00:24:43
    During the Cold War, the U.S. had a bomber plane
  • 00:24:47
    with a nuke on it in the air 24/7 for eight years.
  • 00:24:51
    It wasn't the same plane.
  • 00:24:52
    They were obviously doing patrols,
  • 00:24:53
    but there was always one in the air ready to drop a nuke.
  • 00:24:56
    And this is why it remained a Cold War.
  • 00:24:59
    But the Soviet Union fell and the big standoff
  • 00:25:01
    kind of chilled out a little bit.
  • 00:25:02
    But today, credibility is just as important
  • 00:25:05
    to all of the nuclear powers,
  • 00:25:07
    especially the big dogs, U.S., China, Russia.
  • 00:25:09
    They all still have their nukes pointed
  • 00:25:11
    at each other all the time.
  • 00:25:13
    And all three make it really easy
  • 00:25:16
    to make the decision to launch one.
  • 00:25:18
    They centralize the decision-making
  • 00:25:19
    into one person, the top leader.
  • 00:25:21
    Like in the United States, we do this.
  • 00:25:23
    The president is the sole authority
  • 00:25:25
    who can authorize a nuclear strike.
  • 00:25:27
    And legally, no one can veto his decision.
  • 00:25:29
    He could launch a nuke within five minutes
  • 00:25:32
    using some special authorization codes
  • 00:25:34
    and relying on this football.
  • 00:25:36
    I know it's not a football.
  • 00:25:37
    It's a briefcase, but it's called the nuclear football.
  • 00:25:39
    And inside of this, there's a phone
  • 00:25:41
    and a scary black book that lists out
  • 00:25:44
    all of the potential targets
  • 00:25:45
    that the president could authorize a strike on.
  • 00:25:47
    How many people would die?
  • 00:25:49
    What the effect would be?
  • 00:25:50
    It's all right there by his side all the time.
  • 00:25:52
    And for those wondering, yes, it's that kind of football.
  • 00:25:56
    Sorry, world.
  • 00:25:57
    This is America.
  • 00:26:00
    Okay, the next ingredient to deterrence
  • 00:26:02
    is the ability to hit back.
  • 00:26:04
    Meaning if one nuclear country
  • 00:26:06
    is able to destroy all of your nukes in a surprise attack,
  • 00:26:09
    then the whole thing falls apart.
  • 00:26:11
    They now are not deterred because they can disarm you.
  • 00:26:14
    So you gotta have more than one nuke
  • 00:26:16
    and you kinda gotta spread them out and hide them.
  • 00:26:19
    The US does this by spreading its nukes
  • 00:26:21
    out all throughout the world
  • 00:26:23
    and dividing them up by delivery methods.
  • 00:26:25
    Some are sitting in these big underground silos
  • 00:26:28
    that are spread all across the middle of the country.
  • 00:26:31
    There's just rockets in here,
  • 00:26:33
    ready to launch at a moment's notice.
  • 00:26:36
    Others are sitting on airplanes
  • 00:26:38
    positioned all around the globe.
  • 00:26:39
    And as of two weeks ago,
  • 00:26:41
    the US positioned 10 of its bombers,
  • 00:26:45
    probably carrying nukes,
  • 00:26:46
    here on this tiny little island in the Indian Ocean
  • 00:26:49
    called Diego Garcia,
  • 00:26:51
    which I've made a video about
  • 00:26:52
    and want to make another video about 'cause it's wild.
  • 00:26:54
    And yeah, there's just nukes on this island.
  • 00:26:56
    North Korea, China, Russia, Iran,
  • 00:26:58
    beware, there's nukes here, says the United States.
  • 00:27:02
    And then of course,
  • 00:27:03
    we've got nukes lurking in the depths of the ocean,
  • 00:27:06
    sitting on submarines.
  • 00:27:07
    These underwater buildings that are weapons
  • 00:27:10
    and bases and command centers all in one.
  • 00:27:13
    They can carry up to 20 missiles,
  • 00:27:16
    each of them with multiple warheads.
  • 00:27:19
    It's like the amount of destruction capability
  • 00:27:21
    designed into these weapons is kind of unfathomable.
  • 00:27:23
    And that's kind of the point.
  • 00:27:25
    It has to be so bad, so easy to launch
  • 00:27:27
    that your enemy's like not messing with that.
  • 00:27:29
    Anyway, these different delivery systems
  • 00:27:31
    are called the nuclear triad.
  • 00:27:33
    Russia has something like it too.
  • 00:27:34
    China's kind of developing their own triad.
  • 00:27:36
    And all of this is so that we have
  • 00:27:38
    that second ingredient of deterrence,
  • 00:27:40
    the ability to strike back.
  • 00:27:42
    These things are safe from a surprise attack
  • 00:27:45
    that would take out all of our nukes.
  • 00:27:48
    Okay, so you've got credibility in that you're ready to go.
  • 00:27:51
    You've got a second strike capability,
  • 00:27:52
    but where the rubber meets the road is the last ingredient.
  • 00:27:55
    And this is where the mind games begin.
  • 00:28:00
    Red lines.
  • 00:28:01
    You have to signal to your enemy
  • 00:28:03
    what they would have to do to warrant an attack.
  • 00:28:06
    - The signal to each other
  • 00:28:08
    on what to do and what to not do.
  • 00:28:10
    So you can create guardrails for your competition.
  • 00:28:12
    - The cleanest and safest way to do this
  • 00:28:14
    is to just say, "Hey, we will not attack anyone
  • 00:28:17
    "with our nukes unless they attack us
  • 00:28:19
    "with their nukes first."
  • 00:28:21
    This is called a no-first-use policy or nuclear doctrine.
  • 00:28:25
    It's pretty straightforward,
  • 00:28:26
    and it's much more about just protecting
  • 00:28:28
    your national survival.
  • 00:28:29
    And this is what China has articulated as their policy.
  • 00:28:32
    Most countries operate with this
  • 00:28:34
    as their kind of de facto policy.
  • 00:28:36
    "Don't attack us with nukes or we'll nuke you back."
  • 00:28:38
    It's a way of deterring anyone from trying to attack them.
  • 00:28:42
    - Most other countries that has nuclear weapons
  • 00:28:44
    fundamentally relies on them to assure
  • 00:28:45
    the existence of their country.
  • 00:28:46
    You have nuclear weapons and they're survivable,
  • 00:28:48
    your country's probably not gonna be wiped off the map
  • 00:28:50
    or be invaded.
  • 00:28:52
    - But for the two big dogs on the stage,
  • 00:28:54
    Russia and the United States,
  • 00:28:56
    red lines are a way for them
  • 00:28:57
    to kind of play mind games with each other
  • 00:29:00
    because they believe that it would incentivize their enemy
  • 00:29:02
    to do everything short of a nuclear attack.
  • 00:29:06
    Chemical weapons, conventional attacks,
  • 00:29:08
    all these other things that we also wanna deter.
  • 00:29:10
    So both of them keep their red lines
  • 00:29:13
    intentionally vague and fuzzy,
  • 00:29:15
    forcing each other to constantly be questioning,
  • 00:29:18
    where's the red line?
  • 00:29:20
    Like, am I going too far?
  • 00:29:21
    Am I gonna trigger a nuclear strike if I do this or that?
  • 00:29:25
    This keeps both sides very far away
  • 00:29:27
    from provoking each other
  • 00:29:28
    'cause they're not sure where the red lines are.
  • 00:29:30
    And this is the mind game
  • 00:29:31
    at the heart of modern nuclear politics.
  • 00:29:35
    It's a very dangerous mind game,
  • 00:29:37
    but it's nonetheless the one we have.
  • 00:29:39
    - If deterrence ever fails,
  • 00:29:40
    then you just have this really terrible thing
  • 00:29:42
    that could affect humanity's long-term survival.
  • 00:29:45
    (ominous music)
  • 00:29:49
    - Okay, now time for some payoff.
  • 00:29:51
    I'm gonna apply this to the real world.
  • 00:29:52
    We've been doing this kind of like conceptual,
  • 00:29:54
    theoretical deterrence talk.
  • 00:29:55
    I'm now going to show you how all of these ingredients
  • 00:29:57
    and this deterrence plays out in the real world.
  • 00:30:01
    (soft music)
  • 00:30:05
    First, Ukraine.
  • 00:30:07
    - People will say, didn't Western deterrence fail
  • 00:30:10
    because Russia attacked it all?
  • 00:30:12
    And I would say, absolutely not.
  • 00:30:14
    In fact, it is a case study
  • 00:30:16
    of how nuclear deterrence actually works.
  • 00:30:18
    - I'm gonna make a list of all the moves and counter moves
  • 00:30:21
    that these two nuclear powers play on each other.
  • 00:30:23
    - The day the conflict started,
  • 00:30:25
    Putin announced that he was putting his nuclear forces
  • 00:30:27
    on high alert.
  • 00:30:28
    It didn't quite have the intended effect.
  • 00:30:29
    So like a few days later, he remade the same announcement.
  • 00:30:33
    This time he had a photograph taken.
  • 00:30:35
    That's a nuclear signal.
  • 00:30:36
    But he meant that specifically for people like me
  • 00:30:38
    who read that kind of stuff to say,
  • 00:30:40
    oh, they're serious.
  • 00:30:41
    I better tell Biden that this is serious.
  • 00:30:43
    - Russia has shamelessly violated the core tenets
  • 00:30:46
    of the United Nations Charter.
  • 00:30:48
    - Putin was very clearly manipulating nuclear risk.
  • 00:30:50
    He wanted all of Europe to know
  • 00:30:51
    that Russia had nuclear weapons
  • 00:30:54
    and they should remember that.
  • 00:30:55
    - The West immediately responded with sanctions,
  • 00:30:57
    punishing Russia's economy.
  • 00:30:59
    But beyond that, there was a big debate.
  • 00:31:01
    There was some fear, some deterrence.
  • 00:31:04
    Should we send military troops?
  • 00:31:05
    Should we send weapons?
  • 00:31:07
    Maybe just send money?
  • 00:31:09
    We don't wanna cross Putin's line.
  • 00:31:11
    - The Russians drew a number of what they wanted us
  • 00:31:14
    to believe were very clear red lines.
  • 00:31:16
    If you supply them with mobile artillery,
  • 00:31:18
    it'll be World War III.
  • 00:31:19
    - Whoever would try to stop us
  • 00:31:20
    and further create threats to our country,
  • 00:31:23
    to our people, should know that Russia's response
  • 00:31:26
    will be immediate and lead you to such consequences
  • 00:31:29
    that you have never faced in your history.
  • 00:31:32
    - See what he's doing here?
  • 00:31:33
    Like, do you see how vague that language is?
  • 00:31:36
    It's grand, it's scary, it's not specific.
  • 00:31:38
    This is a blurry red line
  • 00:31:40
    that forces the West to fill in the blanks for themselves,
  • 00:31:44
    to think twice before sending troops or sending support,
  • 00:31:47
    because what if he's serious?
  • 00:31:48
    All right, your move, NATO.
  • 00:31:49
    - Hundreds of thousands of NATO troops on heightened alert.
  • 00:31:53
    - We're also taking steps to defend our NATO allies,
  • 00:31:56
    particularly in the East.
  • 00:31:57
    - Putin's saber-rattling did instill some fear in the West.
  • 00:32:01
    So instead of sending troops to Ukraine,
  • 00:32:04
    NATO deployed 40,000 of their troops to the border,
  • 00:32:07
    just outside of Ukraine.
  • 00:32:11
    And then the West responded
  • 00:32:13
    by doing some signaling of their own,
  • 00:32:15
    saying that the use of nuclear weapons would result in,
  • 00:32:17
    quote, "catastrophic consequences for Russia."
  • 00:32:21
    - The wind of the conflict sort of blew some sand
  • 00:32:24
    over the red lines and they got into,
  • 00:32:26
    turned into pink fuzzy lines
  • 00:32:27
    that the West eventually started to test and tolerate.
  • 00:32:29
    - And then the NATO countries do start sending weapons,
  • 00:32:32
    but they don't send them all at once.
  • 00:32:34
    They're worried that might cross his line.
  • 00:32:36
    So they have to calibrate their response
  • 00:32:38
    and they start sending weapons a little at a time.
  • 00:32:40
    I mean, it wasn't a little, it was a lot of weapons,
  • 00:32:42
    but they could have sent way more
  • 00:32:43
    and it could have actually made
  • 00:32:44
    a big difference in Ukraine,
  • 00:32:45
    but they didn't wanna cross his red line.
  • 00:32:47
    And they don't totally know where it is.
  • 00:32:49
    - It's like adjusting a thermostat.
  • 00:32:50
    Like, you don't want the temperature to get too hot.
  • 00:32:51
    You don't want it to get too cold.
  • 00:32:52
    Nuclear deterrence deeply frustrated not just the Russians
  • 00:32:55
    and deeply frustrated the West
  • 00:32:56
    and frustrated the Ukrainians.
  • 00:32:57
    And so it's this thing we rely on for security,
  • 00:33:00
    but it also endlessly, I think,
  • 00:33:02
    makes the world we inhabit
  • 00:33:04
    a lot more complicated to maneuver.
  • 00:33:05
    - Throughout this war,
  • 00:33:06
    Putin continues issuing nuclear threats.
  • 00:33:09
    And then he moved some of his nukes to Belarus,
  • 00:33:11
    another move on the chessboard.
  • 00:33:13
    He even officially changes Russia's nuclear doctrine,
  • 00:33:17
    which is like their public facing policy
  • 00:33:18
    on when they'll use nukes.
  • 00:33:20
    He changes it to have a lower threshold,
  • 00:33:22
    like to make it easier for Russia to use nukes.
  • 00:33:25
    The US is getting ready to send long range missiles
  • 00:33:27
    to Ukraine so that Ukraine can strike Russia
  • 00:33:30
    deep into the country.
  • 00:33:31
    But Putin says that if he does this,
  • 00:33:33
    it's gonna have big consequences
  • 00:33:35
    and it actually gives then President Biden some pause.
  • 00:33:38
    He's deterred for a little bit,
  • 00:33:39
    being like, "Am I gonna cross a red line
  • 00:33:41
    if I send these missiles to Ukraine?"
  • 00:33:43
    Eventually the pressure mounted
  • 00:33:45
    and he did end up sending the long range missiles.
  • 00:33:47
    Ukraine used them.
  • 00:33:48
    Russia was angry, but they didn't use nukes.
  • 00:33:51
    It was once again a bluff.
  • 00:33:53
    So ultimately, Putin did slow down the West's support,
  • 00:33:56
    deterred them a little bit with his bluster.
  • 00:33:59
    - They kind of worked,
  • 00:34:00
    not as effectively as Russia would want.
  • 00:34:01
    Putin's threats to slow American and Western support
  • 00:34:05
    in ways that was deeply damaging to Ukraine's defense.
  • 00:34:09
    But they did have a time limited effect
  • 00:34:10
    that eventually the West called their bluff.
  • 00:34:13
    - People will talk about Putin's nuclear blackmail.
  • 00:34:15
    And like, I'm sorry, I have no love for Vladimir Putin.
  • 00:34:18
    There is no such thing as nuclear blackmail.
  • 00:34:20
    It is all nuclear deterrence.
  • 00:34:22
    What he was doing was practicing nuclear deterrence.
  • 00:34:24
    We love deterring
  • 00:34:25
    because it makes our national objectives
  • 00:34:28
    easier to accomplish.
  • 00:34:29
    But when the other guy does it to us,
  • 00:34:30
    it kind of ruins our day
  • 00:34:32
    and we call it nuclear blackmail.
  • 00:34:33
    - I mean, listen, Russia and the United States,
  • 00:34:35
    they've been playing this chess game
  • 00:34:36
    of red lines and nuclear weapons since the '50s.
  • 00:34:39
    So it's like, they kind of know each other's red lines.
  • 00:34:41
    And most experts I talked to were like,
  • 00:34:43
    yeah, there was a lot of nuclear bluster,
  • 00:34:44
    but it was a lot of show.
  • 00:34:46
    It was not actually close to a real strike.
  • 00:34:49
    That being said, all it takes is one dude
  • 00:34:54
    having a bad day and getting emotional
  • 00:34:56
    about his pride and honor to change everything.
  • 00:35:00
    It's a really fragile, terrifying balance
  • 00:35:03
    that relies on Vladimir Putin's brain.
  • 00:35:06
    And during a lot of this,
  • 00:35:07
    you saw Russian elites and journalists
  • 00:35:09
    and even policymakers clamoring
  • 00:35:12
    to use nuclear weapons to reset the credibility.
  • 00:35:16
    They're like, dude, you're losing the credibility.
  • 00:35:17
    We're gonna lose the deterrent.
  • 00:35:18
    Use a small tactical nuke in Ukraine
  • 00:35:21
    and your credibility will be restored.
  • 00:35:23
    - A hawkish voice in Moscow is now advocating
  • 00:35:25
    that Russia should launch a limited nuclear strike.
  • 00:35:29
    - And certainly Putin considered that.
  • 00:35:31
    But luckily, sanity prevailed and he didn't do it.
  • 00:35:40
    So India and Pakistan both have nukes.
  • 00:35:41
    And this is really the only place
  • 00:35:43
    where two nuclear powers fight each other directly.
  • 00:35:45
    India has 172 nukes and they use them
  • 00:35:48
    not just to deter Pakistan, but also China.
  • 00:35:51
    For a long time, India did what the big powers do
  • 00:35:54
    and kept their red lines vague,
  • 00:35:56
    using that ambiguity to make their neighbors think twice
  • 00:35:59
    about trying to take any of this disputed territory
  • 00:36:02
    up in the mountains.
  • 00:36:03
    But in an effort to influence stability
  • 00:36:06
    and be a responsible nuclear power,
  • 00:36:07
    in the early 2000s, they said they were joining China
  • 00:36:09
    to adopt a no-first-use policy,
  • 00:36:12
    meaning they won't nuke anyone unless they get nuked first.
  • 00:36:15
    Now, ironically, some have pointed out
  • 00:36:18
    that this actually invites attacks up on these borders,
  • 00:36:21
    as we've seen in recent years.
  • 00:36:23
    So Pakistan has around 170 nukes as well,
  • 00:36:26
    but they've opted to keep the vague red line
  • 00:36:28
    that makes India's much more powerful military
  • 00:36:30
    think twice before attempting to conquer
  • 00:36:33
    any of this disputed territory.
  • 00:36:42
    All right, nuclear deterrence is playing a huge role
  • 00:36:44
    in Taiwan, where nuclear-armed China
  • 00:36:48
    is constantly flexing its power
  • 00:36:50
    as it becomes more and more powerful in the region,
  • 00:36:52
    but is, inconveniently for them, running into this.
  • 00:36:56
    This is America's nuclear umbrella in Asia.
  • 00:36:58
    We call it an umbrella because it covers our allies.
  • 00:37:02
    It's basically a promise to defend South Korea and Japan
  • 00:37:06
    if they're ever attacked.
  • 00:37:07
    And the red lines are pretty clear here.
  • 00:37:09
    It's a reason why these countries feel safe
  • 00:37:11
    and why they feel like they don't need
  • 00:37:13
    to get a nuclear weapon for themselves
  • 00:37:14
    because the U.S. has their back, okay?
  • 00:37:17
    They've got a nuclear deterrent protecting them.
  • 00:37:19
    But Taiwan is different.
  • 00:37:20
    It is widely seen as like the top place on Earth
  • 00:37:23
    where a miscalculation could escalate
  • 00:37:26
    into war between two nuclear powers
  • 00:37:28
    because China has vowed to take Taiwan.
  • 00:37:31
    They believe that it's rightfully theirs,
  • 00:37:33
    it always has been,
  • 00:37:34
    and that eventually they will take it, even if by force.
  • 00:37:37
    But deterrence is a major reason
  • 00:37:39
    why they haven't done so yet.
  • 00:37:42
    And it's the U.S. that's playing
  • 00:37:43
    the fuzzy red line game here.
  • 00:37:45
    If China invades Taiwan, will the U.S. come to its rescue?
  • 00:37:49
    Who knows?
  • 00:37:50
    - U.S. forces, U.S. men and women,
  • 00:37:53
    would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
  • 00:37:56
    - Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack.
  • 00:37:59
    - Whoa, Biden just said they would,
  • 00:38:01
    but then, seconds later,
  • 00:38:03
    the White House retracted that statement and apologized.
  • 00:38:06
    - The White House is now walking back
  • 00:38:07
    President Biden's comments on Taiwan.
  • 00:38:10
    - [Reporter] Officially, the U.S. will not say
  • 00:38:12
    whether American forces would defend Taiwan.
  • 00:38:15
    - Blurry red line.
  • 00:38:17
    Will they protect Taiwan or will they not?
  • 00:38:19
    Now, the U.S. might be bluffing here.
  • 00:38:21
    They might actually not be willing
  • 00:38:23
    to go like send their own troops in
  • 00:38:25
    to confront China if they invade Taiwan,
  • 00:38:27
    but they need Beijing to think that they might
  • 00:38:30
    because that is such a horrifying potential
  • 00:38:32
    that it will prevent China from
  • 00:38:34
    attacking in the first place.
  • 00:38:35
    And that's deterrence.
  • 00:38:43
    Okay, pan up here to another nuclear chess game
  • 00:38:47
    of high stakes and irrational minds and fuzzy red lines.
  • 00:38:51
    - North Korea has the world's lowest realistic threshold,
  • 00:38:55
    I think, for nuclear weapons used today.
  • 00:38:57
    - North Korea has got 50 warheads
  • 00:38:59
    and they actually have a very clear red line.
  • 00:39:02
    They have stated that if the regime's survival
  • 00:39:05
    is ever threatened, they will use their nukes.
  • 00:39:08
    And by the regime, I mean the Kim family,
  • 00:39:10
    the dictators who've ruled North Korea since its founding.
  • 00:39:13
    This is a terrifying prospect
  • 00:39:14
    and they've really made us believe
  • 00:39:16
    that this is a credible threat.
  • 00:39:17
    They test their nukes.
  • 00:39:18
    They're constantly like, "Dude, we're ready to attack
  • 00:39:21
    if you ever get close to trying to overthrow the regime."
  • 00:39:24
    And they easily could.
  • 00:39:26
    The capital of South Korea is like right there.
  • 00:39:28
    And as of 2017, they've got rockets
  • 00:39:32
    that could send a nuclear weapon
  • 00:39:34
    to the mainland United States.
  • 00:39:36
    So now they really have a deterrent that gives us pause
  • 00:39:39
    before doing anything to provoke them.
  • 00:39:41
    - When you're the president of the United States
  • 00:39:42
    and you're deciding whether you're gonna run that risk
  • 00:39:44
    and you're gonna go all the way to Pyongyang
  • 00:39:46
    and remove Kim from power,
  • 00:39:47
    knowing that he's got 10 ICBMs
  • 00:39:49
    that could hit one of your cities,
  • 00:39:51
    that is not a decision that you make in a cavalier manner.
  • 00:39:54
    And so that is essentially the mechanism of deterrence.
  • 00:39:57
    It is as Dr. Strangelove says,
  • 00:39:58
    it is creating in the mind of your enemy
  • 00:40:00
    the fear to attack.
  • 00:40:01
    And that is what Kim Jong-un is trying to do.
  • 00:40:04
    - They use their nukes to basically ensure the survival
  • 00:40:06
    and the reign of power of the Kim family.
  • 00:40:09
    It's like a core part of what keeps them going.
  • 00:40:11
    And of all the nuclear powers,
  • 00:40:12
    they weaponize irrationality.
  • 00:40:14
    I mean, this kind of theater
  • 00:40:15
    of being like the crazy dictator
  • 00:40:17
    with his hand on the trigger
  • 00:40:18
    is a really powerful deterrent.
  • 00:40:20
    It's a major reason why the US and South Korea
  • 00:40:22
    and anyone won't get anywhere near the red line.
  • 00:40:25
    And it forces the United States
  • 00:40:27
    to grapple with whether or not
  • 00:40:29
    they would provoke a nuclear attack on their soil
  • 00:40:31
    to protect South Korea.
  • 00:40:34
    Deterrence has so far kept the whole thing
  • 00:40:36
    in this sort of tense, scary balance,
  • 00:40:38
    but that could change any minute and hopefully it doesn't.
  • 00:40:43
    (soft music)
  • 00:40:46
    So can we just stop the nukes, please?
  • 00:40:51
    Can we as humanity just agree
  • 00:40:53
    that this is completely irrational, totally insane,
  • 00:40:56
    that we've invented these things and that we wield them?
  • 00:40:58
    And can we all just agree
  • 00:41:00
    that it would be better to not have them at all?
  • 00:41:03
    Could we?
  • 00:41:04
    Ooh, I wish, but it's a little more complicated.
  • 00:41:07
    I mean, 73 countries have signed a treaty
  • 00:41:09
    saying they'll never develop nukes.
  • 00:41:11
    Could we just get everyone else to do it?
  • 00:41:12
    Seems sensible.
  • 00:41:13
    Unfortunately, most experts I talked to say
  • 00:41:15
    it's not quite that simple.
  • 00:41:17
    - Unfortunately, you can't un-invent the technology
  • 00:41:20
    and actually, sudden disarmament
  • 00:41:23
    would put you in a much more dangerous position
  • 00:41:26
    where any country could suddenly leap
  • 00:41:28
    into a position of massive power
  • 00:41:30
    by just committing to building
  • 00:41:32
    lots and lots of nuclear warheads.
  • 00:41:33
    - We still live in a world
  • 00:41:34
    where big countries are skeptical of each other.
  • 00:41:37
    There's no central authority governing everyone.
  • 00:41:40
    And so countries naturally compete with each other.
  • 00:41:43
    They're constantly trying to one-up each other
  • 00:41:45
    to protect themselves and scare their enemy.
  • 00:41:48
    That is like a natural law of international relations.
  • 00:41:51
    I hope it's not the case someday
  • 00:41:52
    'cause it really, like, our world would be much better
  • 00:41:54
    if we all just cooperated.
  • 00:41:56
    But for now, this is how we do it.
  • 00:41:58
    The current arrangement is that, yes, we do diplomacy
  • 00:42:01
    and we do some international law,
  • 00:42:03
    but a major stabilizer for the big empires
  • 00:42:05
    is everyone having a gun pointed at each other
  • 00:42:07
    so that no one does anything crazy.
  • 00:42:09
    It gives way to a bunch of other types of conflict,
  • 00:42:13
    proxy wars we've talked a lot about on this channel,
  • 00:42:16
    but for now, it has kept the big powers
  • 00:42:18
    from going into a full cataclysmic war.
  • 00:42:20
    - And unfortunately, half of this community just says,
  • 00:42:23
    "We need to get rid of all the corporates tomorrow!"
  • 00:42:25
    (yells)
  • 00:42:26
    And the other half says,
  • 00:42:27
    "No, we need new corporates for everything,
  • 00:42:28
    including stopping asteroids!" (yells)
  • 00:42:32
    We need everyone to take a deep breath
  • 00:42:34
    and think strategically and think in the longer term.
  • 00:42:36
    - So how do we manage this then?
  • 00:42:38
    During the Cold War, we saw the US and the Soviet Union
  • 00:42:41
    figure out a way to work together while still having nukes.
  • 00:42:44
    They could still do the deterrence thing,
  • 00:42:46
    the credibility, the red lines, all of that,
  • 00:42:49
    but instead of just constantly one-upping each other,
  • 00:42:51
    they started to reduce,
  • 00:42:53
    and that's how we went from having
  • 00:42:54
    tens of thousands of nukes
  • 00:42:56
    to just having 12,000 today.
  • 00:42:57
    What's tricky about this new world we're entering into
  • 00:43:00
    is that it's not just two powers.
  • 00:43:02
    - Soviet Union went poof,
  • 00:43:04
    and we had this moment of global nuclear optimism.
  • 00:43:07
    Today, it's like all of the dynamics
  • 00:43:08
    are heading in the wrong direction.
  • 00:43:09
    We have competitive great power dynamics,
  • 00:43:11
    we have new entrants like North Korea,
  • 00:43:13
    we have India and Pakistan innovating in their own way
  • 00:43:16
    about how they wanna fight wars under the nuclear shadow,
  • 00:43:19
    and so all of that takes us to a place
  • 00:43:21
    where, unfortunately, this broader toolkit
  • 00:43:23
    that we have relied on
  • 00:43:25
    to render this enterprise of nuclear deterrence
  • 00:43:27
    somewhat more predictable and manageable for mankind
  • 00:43:30
    is under great strain.
  • 00:43:31
    - I think we'll move towards safer, smaller ones.
  • 00:43:35
    More, I don't know.
  • 00:43:36
    I mean, I think the US and Russia are gonna stay stable,
  • 00:43:40
    but it depends on what China does.
  • 00:43:41
    If China matches them,
  • 00:43:43
    does Russia feel like they need to be bigger than China?
  • 00:43:45
    I don't know.
  • 00:43:46
    And if Russia races, does the US race?
  • 00:43:48
    And then does this become a congressional thing
  • 00:43:50
    where we say it has to be US equals Russia
  • 00:43:53
    plus China plus one?
  • 00:43:55
    Well, then what happens when North Korea hits 1,000?
  • 00:43:57
    Or what happens, ah, you know what I mean?
  • 00:43:59
    Like, if we're racing,
  • 00:44:00
    and again, because of the asymmetries of all these races,
  • 00:44:03
    then everybody ends up,
  • 00:44:05
    do we end up with everybody with 10,000 in these things?
  • 00:44:07
    I hope not.
  • 00:44:08
    That, I really think we could have talks to get out of.
  • 00:44:10
    - China seems to be building their nuclear arsenal
  • 00:44:13
    very quickly,
  • 00:44:14
    and they are not telling the world why.
  • 00:44:17
    - Why is China doing this buildup?
  • 00:44:18
    Like, that is still being debated.
  • 00:44:20
    Xi Jinping has not given us a speech,
  • 00:44:22
    like, telling us why we're seeing
  • 00:44:23
    more nuclear weapons in China.
  • 00:44:24
    Imaginations have run wild in Washington a little bit
  • 00:44:27
    about what China's goals are here.
  • 00:44:28
    - There was a moment during the Cold War
  • 00:44:30
    where it got really bad.
  • 00:44:32
    Cuba, the Cuban Missile Crisis,
  • 00:44:33
    you've probably heard of it.
  • 00:44:34
    The closest we ever got to, like,
  • 00:44:36
    actually going full bore into a nuclear war
  • 00:44:38
    with the Soviet Union.
  • 00:44:39
    And that sort of woke everyone up to the insanity.
  • 00:44:42
    It sort of, like, gave us the picture
  • 00:44:44
    of how close we were to, like, mass annihilation.
  • 00:44:47
    And it was that crisis that helped the two countries
  • 00:44:51
    increase communication lines with each other,
  • 00:44:54
    put in place some frameworks to, like,
  • 00:44:57
    make sure that nothing crazy happens.
  • 00:44:59
    And it really did stabilize the world
  • 00:45:01
    and eventually led to the reduction of all of these nukes.
  • 00:45:04
    We're going to need to do that again.
  • 00:45:06
    Like, we're gonna have to have those conversations again.
  • 00:45:08
    The question is,
  • 00:45:09
    is it going to take another scary crisis
  • 00:45:12
    and a close call to get us there?
  • 00:45:15
    - What is it we really want?
  • 00:45:16
    We want peace and stability.
  • 00:45:18
    We want us all to be able
  • 00:45:19
    to survive for another generation.
  • 00:45:21
    How do we do that best?
  • 00:45:23
    We need to defend ourselves
  • 00:45:24
    and we need to redevelop the habit
  • 00:45:26
    of thinking more strategically and diplomacy
  • 00:45:29
    and talking to our adversaries
  • 00:45:31
    in order to try to avoid the next conflict
  • 00:45:33
    and get to somewhere with peace.
  • 00:45:35
    The hard work needs to happen now.
  • 00:45:37
    (soft music)
  • 00:45:42
    - Hey, everyone, thanks for watching.
  • 00:45:44
    Did you know we have two other channels that we launched?
  • 00:45:46
    They're in their early stages
  • 00:45:47
    and we're creating what they are now
  • 00:45:50
    and you can inform that.
  • 00:45:51
    Search Party, I think, just crossed 700,000 subs.
  • 00:45:54
    It is growing.
  • 00:45:55
    It's geopolitics and sports.
  • 00:45:57
    Tunnel Vision is a deep dive into internet mysteries.
  • 00:46:00
    We also license our music.
  • 00:46:01
    All of the music in all of our videos
  • 00:46:03
    is custom made by the wonderful Tom Fox,
  • 00:46:06
    who sits right there and makes amazing music.
  • 00:46:12
    And if you make videos or commercials or whatever
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    and you wanna license that music, the catalog,
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    you wanna like have access to all of our songs,
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    you can do that.
  • 00:46:20
    So yeah, all the links are in the description, I hope.
  • 00:46:25
    Thanks for being here
  • 00:46:26
    and tell me what you want to learn about next.
  • 00:46:30
    See ya.
  • 00:46:31
    (soft music)
الوسوم
  • nuclear weapons
  • deterrence
  • fission
  • fusion
  • geopolitics
  • nuclear politics
  • radiation
  • Cold War
  • nuclear arms control
  • global security