Nukes are way scarier than you think
الملخص
TLDRThe video vividly illustrates the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear weapon detonation in Washington, DC, detailing the immediate destruction, long-term radiation effects, and the geopolitical implications of nuclear weapons. It explains the science behind nuclear fission and fusion, the historical context of nuclear arms development, and the current state of global nuclear politics. The concept of deterrence is emphasized as a crucial strategy in preventing nuclear war, highlighting the delicate balance of power among nuclear-armed states. The video concludes with a call for increased awareness and diplomatic efforts to manage nuclear risks.
الوجبات الجاهزة
- 🌍 Nuclear weapons can cause unprecedented destruction.
- 💥 A nuclear detonation would vaporize everything within a half-mile radius.
- ⚛️ Fission and fusion are the processes that release energy in nuclear weapons.
- 🛡️ Deterrence prevents nuclear war by ensuring mutual destruction.
- 📉 There are approximately 12,000 nuclear warheads globally.
- 🔍 The US and Russia hold the majority of these weapons.
- ⚠️ Fear plays a crucial role in nuclear deterrence strategies.
- 📜 A no-first-use policy can help reduce nuclear tensions.
- 🌐 Ongoing diplomatic efforts are essential to manage nuclear risks.
- 🔮 The future of nuclear weapons remains uncertain and complex.
الجدول الزمني
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
The video begins with a dramatic visualization of a nuclear weapon landing in Washington, DC, illustrating the catastrophic effects of such an event, including immediate destruction, a massive blast wave, and long-lasting radiation poisoning. The narrator emphasizes the potential for widespread devastation and the reality of nuclear capabilities in the world today.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
The discussion shifts to the global political landscape surrounding nuclear weapons, highlighting the ongoing threat and the reasons behind the resurgence of nuclear arms in international relations. The narrator introduces the concept of nuclear weapons as a central element in global politics, urging viewers to pay attention to this critical issue.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
The narrator explains the basic science behind nuclear weapons, focusing on atoms as the building blocks of matter and how they can be transformed into energy. The discussion includes the principles of fission and fusion, emphasizing the immense energy potential contained within atoms and the implications for nuclear weaponry.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
The video delves into the historical context of nuclear weapons, tracing their development from the 1930s in Germany to the Manhattan Project and the subsequent arms race during the Cold War. The narrator highlights the shift in global conflict dynamics brought about by the introduction of nuclear weapons.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
Modern nuclear weapons are described, including their design and delivery methods. The narrator explains the mechanics of a thermonuclear weapon, detailing how fission triggers fusion to create unprecedented destruction, and illustrates the potential impact on cities like Washington, DC.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:00
The current global nuclear arsenal is examined, revealing the existence of approximately 12,000 nuclear warheads, primarily held by the US and Russia. The narrator discusses the implications of this stockpile for global security and the ongoing threat posed by nuclear weapons.
- 00:30:00 - 00:35:00
The concept of deterrence is introduced, explaining how the fear of mutual destruction prevents direct conflict between nuclear powers. The narrator discusses the psychological and strategic elements of deterrence, including the importance of credible threats and the role of red lines in international relations.
- 00:35:00 - 00:40:00
The video applies the concept of deterrence to real-world scenarios, including the conflict in Ukraine and the dynamics between nuclear powers like the US, Russia, India, and Pakistan. The narrator illustrates how nuclear deterrence shapes geopolitical interactions and influences military strategies.
- 00:40:00 - 00:47:04
Finally, the narrator reflects on the challenges of nuclear disarmament and the complexities of international relations in a world with nuclear weapons. The video concludes with a call for strategic thinking and diplomacy to manage the risks associated with nuclear arms, emphasizing the need for ongoing dialogue and cooperation.
الخريطة الذهنية
فيديو أسئلة وأجوبة
What happens if a nuclear weapon detonates in Washington, DC?
A nuclear detonation would cause immediate destruction within a half-mile radius, with severe injuries and fatalities extending up to five miles due to heat and blast waves.
How do nuclear weapons work?
Nuclear weapons operate through fission (splitting atoms) or fusion (combining atoms), releasing massive amounts of energy.
What is deterrence in nuclear politics?
Deterrence is the strategy of preventing nuclear war by ensuring that the consequences of an attack would be catastrophic for both sides.
How many nuclear warheads exist today?
There are approximately 12,000 nuclear warheads globally, primarily held by the US and Russia.
What is the current state of nuclear arms control?
While there have been reductions in nuclear arsenals since the Cold War, tensions remain high, and new nuclear powers are emerging.
What role does fear play in nuclear deterrence?
Fear of mutual destruction prevents countries from engaging in direct conflict, as the consequences would be too severe.
What are the risks of nuclear weapons today?
The risks include accidental launches, miscalculations, and the potential for rogue states to use nuclear weapons.
What is the significance of the no-first-use policy?
A no-first-use policy indicates that a country will not use nuclear weapons unless first attacked by an adversary with nuclear weapons.
How does the US maintain its nuclear deterrent?
The US maintains a nuclear triad of land-based missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and strategic bombers to ensure a credible deterrent.
What is the future of nuclear weapons?
The future remains uncertain, with ongoing developments in nuclear arsenals and the need for renewed diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation.
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- 00:00:00(plane engine roaring)
- 00:00:03- I'm in Washington, DC right now,
- 00:00:04and I want to visualize for you what it would look like
- 00:00:07if a nuclear weapon landed on the nation's capital.
- 00:00:10So, for our scenario, there is a nuclear weapon
- 00:00:12headed towards the city right now.
- 00:00:15(dramatic music)
- 00:00:18A large nuclear weapon flying
- 00:00:20headed towards Washington, DC.
- 00:00:23The actual bomb is actually in here.
- 00:00:26This cone that's about two meters tall, six feet.
- 00:00:29It's falling back into the atmosphere.
- 00:00:31Here it comes.
- 00:00:33And then,
- 00:00:38for a moment, right here is the hottest thing
- 00:00:41in our solar system, hotter than the sun.
- 00:00:44100 million degrees Celsius as it expands out.
- 00:00:49Everything around it turns into dust.
- 00:00:51I mean, smaller than dust.
- 00:00:53Atoms are ripped apart.
- 00:00:55This fireball instantly vaporizes everything
- 00:00:57within a half a mile radius.
- 00:01:00And here comes the blast wave,
- 00:01:02a wall of high-pressure air that is moving faster
- 00:01:05than the speed of sound.
- 00:01:07It creates wind behind it that is faster
- 00:01:09than anything ever observed in nature.
- 00:01:14Everything within two and a half miles is leveled.
- 00:01:17And then there's the heat wave,
- 00:01:19which burns everything within five miles.
- 00:01:22Nearly everyone in this city is either dead
- 00:01:24or severely injured.
- 00:01:28Everything that can be on fire is now on fire
- 00:01:31as this huge mushroom cloud rises into the air,
- 00:01:34dragging with it a storm of dust, dirt, and debris.
- 00:01:38But this isn't normal dust anymore.
- 00:01:41The bomb has done something to it, to its atoms,
- 00:01:45making them fall apart in slow motion,
- 00:01:47shooting out invisible, deadly energy.
- 00:01:50This poison dust drifts all across this region.
- 00:01:53It clings to soil and plants and people,
- 00:01:56hundreds of miles away.
- 00:01:58(soft music)
- 00:02:00These poisoned atoms will keep firing off radiation
- 00:02:03for years, for decades, centuries, even thousands of years.
- 00:02:09This is a disaster that humans made.
- 00:02:11And that was just for one of these cones.
- 00:02:14A rocket fired from an American submarine
- 00:02:17can carry eight of these cones at once.
- 00:02:20If all of those hit one target,
- 00:02:22it would be a much worse situation.
- 00:02:25(soft music)
- 00:02:30A lot of global politics centers around this,
- 00:02:33making sure this does not happen.
- 00:02:36But everything I just showed you is very possible.
- 00:02:39We have the capabilities to do this right now.
- 00:02:42And in fact, a lot of countries
- 00:02:43have their finger on the trigger,
- 00:02:45able to launch one of these at a moment's notice.
- 00:02:48And I've spent a very long time trying to understand why.
- 00:02:52Why have we done this?
- 00:02:53And why these nuclear weapons,
- 00:02:55which were famous during the Cold War, are back.
- 00:02:58They're back in a new way.
- 00:02:59They're once again becoming the center of global politics.
- 00:03:02- We are entering one of the most dangerous periods
- 00:03:05in nuclear history.
- 00:03:06We're on the cusp of this third age.
- 00:03:08That nuclear is back.
- 00:03:09- That's Sam from Search Party.
- 00:03:11He also made a video about nuclear weapons,
- 00:03:13but it's different than mine.
- 00:03:15It went live yesterday.
- 00:03:16In this video, I'm gonna show you how these things work,
- 00:03:18what countries have them,
- 00:03:20and how they're used on the global stage.
- 00:03:22And then Sam's video will take you
- 00:03:23into this specific moment in time
- 00:03:26and what to look out for going forward.
- 00:03:28Help you understand why nuclear weapons
- 00:03:29are back on the world stage.
- 00:03:33We're headed into a world that is more and more informed
- 00:03:36by nuclear weapons and nuclear politics.
- 00:03:38So it's time we start paying attention.
- 00:03:40Let me show you.
- 00:03:42(gentle music)
- 00:03:45Everyone's telling me that they don't like
- 00:03:47that my screen shakes.
- 00:03:48Listen, I can't help it.
- 00:03:50This thing's big.
- 00:03:51It's unruly.
- 00:03:53Sorry.
- 00:03:54Okay, so what is this thing?
- 00:03:58Well, it's a bomb, obviously, a very destructive bomb.
- 00:04:04And it's one that messes with the very building blocks
- 00:04:07of everything, the atom.
- 00:04:09- [Narrator] Atoms are the tiny building blocks,
- 00:04:12which make up everything in the world.
- 00:04:14- So an atom, of course,
- 00:04:15is the smallest unit of matter, right?
- 00:04:18And it's made up of several subatomic particles,
- 00:04:21electrons, protons, neutrons.
- 00:04:23- I talked to Destin from the YouTube channel
- 00:04:25Smarter Every Day.
- 00:04:26He's a real scientist, engineer.
- 00:04:28He's making a bunch of videos on nuclear energy.
- 00:04:30And I talked to him because I wanted to make sure
- 00:04:31I was grounded in my understanding
- 00:04:34of the physics of a nuclear bomb.
- 00:04:35Everything is atoms.
- 00:04:37Everything that you can touch, the air,
- 00:04:40everything is atoms, different kinds of atoms.
- 00:04:42And these atoms have a little secret hiding in them.
- 00:04:47Every single atom can be turned into energy.
- 00:04:51Like actually matter, like atoms and energy
- 00:04:55are the same thing.
- 00:04:56They're just in different states.
- 00:04:57- When I was growing up,
- 00:04:58dad used to always say matter is frozen energy.
- 00:05:01- Like this could be turned into energy
- 00:05:03and actually a lot of energy that could like fuel a car
- 00:05:07or like power my house or like fly me to the moon.
- 00:05:10And it doesn't take that much mass
- 00:05:12to create a lot of energy.
- 00:05:13Let me show you this really quick.
- 00:05:18This little piece of metal
- 00:05:20is probably a little more than a gram.
- 00:05:23Not very heavy, not a lot of mass, right?
- 00:05:27If we zoom way into this little clip,
- 00:05:29you're gonna see a bunch of atoms.
- 00:05:33Now there are some powerful forces working on this atom,
- 00:05:37keeping the nucleus really tightly glued together,
- 00:05:40keeping the atoms separate from each other
- 00:05:42so they don't like blob into one another.
- 00:05:44And thank God for this
- 00:05:45because otherwise nothing would be solid.
- 00:05:47You would sit in a chair and just sort of fall through.
- 00:05:49There's a lot of forces happening down with the atoms,
- 00:05:52keeping everything stable, everything solid.
- 00:05:55We like these forces.
- 00:05:57They make it so that my little paperclip thingy
- 00:05:59doesn't explode
- 00:06:00and everything doesn't sort of spontaneously come apart.
- 00:06:03Stable, good.
- 00:06:04- Those forces, those subatomic forces
- 00:06:06are very, very strong.
- 00:06:07- Now you can break these forces holding atoms together.
- 00:06:12If you rock their world hard enough,
- 00:06:13they will kind of rearrange.
- 00:06:15They will break.
- 00:06:16And then they'll quickly like reorganize
- 00:06:18to try to form some sort of stable atom.
- 00:06:21But in the process,
- 00:06:22a little bit of matter is left with nowhere to go.
- 00:06:26It can't bond to anything.
- 00:06:27And so it spontaneously turns into energy.
- 00:06:31Every single thing around you,
- 00:06:33everything could be turned into energy,
- 00:06:36an enormous amount of energy.
- 00:06:37How much energy?
- 00:06:39I'm glad you asked
- 00:06:41because this is the moment
- 00:06:42that I've been waiting for since I was a child,
- 00:06:45where in my real adult career,
- 00:06:47I'm going to be able to invoke the famous equation
- 00:06:51of our very own Albert Einstein.
- 00:06:54Yep, I'm pulling, I'm doing this.
- 00:06:55I'm doing the chalkboard thing.
- 00:06:59For those of you who already know about E equals MC squared
- 00:07:02and exactly what it means,
- 00:07:04like skip like 45 seconds ahead
- 00:07:06because I'm about to explain it in a way
- 00:07:08that I've always wanted someone to explain it to me.
- 00:07:11And I'm gonna do that for you.
- 00:07:13(soft music)
- 00:07:18Could have guessed that was gonna happen.
- 00:07:23So what does Einstein say about how much energy
- 00:07:26is contained in my little paper clippy thing?
- 00:07:28The E is energy.
- 00:07:32The M is mass.
- 00:07:34How much mass are we turning into energy?
- 00:07:38And the C is the speed of light in meters per second.
- 00:07:43Speed.
- 00:07:48The mass of my paper clip is one gram.
- 00:07:51Because this is in kilograms, it's gonna be 0.001.
- 00:07:54I just need to times this by speed of light squared
- 00:07:59is about 299 million meters per second.
- 00:08:03But we have to times it by itself,
- 00:08:05which comes out to be 89 quadrillion,
- 00:08:09875 trillion,
- 00:08:12570 billion,
- 00:08:14873 million,
- 00:08:17681 thousand,
- 00:08:20764.
- 00:08:27Whoa.
- 00:08:28So my paper clip mass times this.
- 00:08:30Einstein says we have to multiply that big number
- 00:08:33by the mass of this paper clip
- 00:08:35to find out how much energy is inside of it.
- 00:08:38And if you do that math with my one gram,
- 00:08:40you get 89 trillion joules.
- 00:08:44That's enough energy to power 100,000 homes for two weeks
- 00:08:47or one home for 2,000 years.
- 00:08:52Just inside of this.
- 00:08:54Because of that.
- 00:08:57(soft music)
- 00:08:59Okay, giant caveat for everyone watching
- 00:09:02and those who study physics will be clamoring for this.
- 00:09:06You can't actually do that with like an iron paper clip.
- 00:09:09The amount of energy you would need
- 00:09:10to like turn this into energy
- 00:09:13would sort of be more than the energy you get out of it.
- 00:09:16To actually do this, to release the energy from matter,
- 00:09:19you need different kinds of atoms,
- 00:09:20like big unstable ones, like the ones we see in uranium.
- 00:09:24My point here is not that this is ever gonna like break
- 00:09:26and turn into energy, but that when you mess with atoms,
- 00:09:29the bonds within atoms,
- 00:09:31and you release a little bit of matter into energy,
- 00:09:34you don't need very much to create a huge amount.
- 00:09:37That's what we're about to see in real life.
- 00:09:39- So fission is a big atom splitting.
- 00:09:42Fusion, little atoms coming together.
- 00:09:45- I had a fun time watching Destin show me
- 00:09:47how fission works in his studio
- 00:09:49with his very cute looking neutrons and mouse traps.
- 00:09:53He made a whole video about it that you can check out.
- 00:09:54Now for most of time, the only place
- 00:09:57that this sort of turning matter into energy was happening
- 00:10:00was not here on earth, but in the center of stars.
- 00:10:04- And this is the kind of stuff that happens
- 00:10:06in the core of the sun, for example,
- 00:10:07- where immense heat and pressure
- 00:10:09is smashing atoms together so hard
- 00:10:12that they fuse.
- 00:10:13They rearrange a little bit,
- 00:10:14a little bit of matter that isn't fused,
- 00:10:17turns into energy and you get the literal sun.
- 00:10:20That's called fusion.
- 00:10:23But then in the 1900s,
- 00:10:26the humans on earth decided they wanted to start
- 00:10:29to do something like this themselves.
- 00:10:33As I talked about nuclear politics
- 00:10:35is ramping up in a new way.
- 00:10:37Iran is the best example of where this is clearly happening
- 00:10:39where there's just like a lot of secrecy
- 00:10:42and vague information as a negotiating tactic.
- 00:10:44And it's a really normal thing to feel like
- 00:10:46you're just left with a bunch of headlines and leaks
- 00:10:48and half answers, but no real clear picture,
- 00:10:50which is exactly why I am a giant fan
- 00:10:53and big user of Ground News,
- 00:10:55who is the sponsor of today's video.
- 00:10:57Ground News is this amazing tool
- 00:10:58that allows you to see the coverage of a topic
- 00:11:01from so many different angles all in one view.
- 00:11:05And you're not just seeing a bunch of headlines,
- 00:11:06you are getting a deep understanding
- 00:11:08of what bias that headline might have,
- 00:11:11what agenda they might have, who might be funding them,
- 00:11:13how credible or factual they are.
- 00:11:14Ground News is a longtime partner of the channel.
- 00:11:16I'm a big fan of what they do.
- 00:11:17We align very much in our mission
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- 00:11:20more clear for people.
- 00:11:22It's an app and a website that helps me go beyond
- 00:11:24the echo chamber of social media
- 00:11:25and see a story from a much deeper perspective.
- 00:11:28I mean, let's just go back to the Iran example.
- 00:11:29You can see here on Ground News in one view,
- 00:11:32a bunch of different headlines, like pull these two out.
- 00:11:34You can immediately see that this is funded
- 00:11:36by the government of Qatar.
- 00:11:37It's high factuality, but it leans left.
- 00:11:39And their headline emphasizes a framing
- 00:11:41of Iran rejecting this IAEA report
- 00:11:45and downplaying the threat and casting doubt
- 00:11:47on the international narrative.
- 00:11:48Whereas this Israeli outlet has a more mixed record.
- 00:11:50It leans right and it cuts right to the chase
- 00:11:53and says clearly and slightly misleadingly
- 00:11:56that Iran has enriched uranium for 10 nuclear bombs
- 00:11:59and is continuing production.
- 00:12:01Same story, two totally different angles.
- 00:12:04Ground News is the only platform I know of
- 00:12:06where you can see all of these headlines side by side
- 00:12:08with all of this information
- 00:12:09and quickly get a grasp of what is going on.
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- 00:12:15with its blind spot feature,
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- 00:12:19or that you are either
- 00:12:21avoiding consciously or unconsciously.
- 00:12:23Ground News helps me feel informed in a very short time
- 00:12:26and sort of ahead of the narrative.
- 00:12:27And it's not just me.
- 00:12:28Ground News was recently recognized
- 00:12:30by the literal Nobel Peace Center
- 00:12:31for its impact on media literacy.
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- 00:12:47I think it ends up being like five bucks a month all in.
- 00:12:49So small price to pay for being informed.
- 00:12:51Thank you, Ground News, for sponsoring today's video,
- 00:12:53for being a longtime partner, for doing what you do.
- 00:12:56And with that, let's keep talking about nukes.
- 00:12:59(soft music)
- 00:13:02It was the 1930s in Germany
- 00:13:04and some scientists were tinkering with atoms
- 00:13:06and they found a way to break some atoms apart
- 00:13:09and get in on this insanity of E equals MC squared.
- 00:13:12- Pretty crazy how safe nuclear power is.
- 00:13:15But nuclear weapons are scary, aren't they?
- 00:13:17- Yeah.
- 00:13:17- When uranium-235 exists in nature,
- 00:13:21it's not real happy.
- 00:13:22It's kind of unstable.
- 00:13:23If a U-235 atom ever gets hit by a neutron,
- 00:13:27which I have, I happen to have a neutron here.
- 00:13:31If U-235 ever gets hit by a neutron,
- 00:13:34then it gets really unstable and then it breaks apart.
- 00:13:39That right there breaks into two other atoms.
- 00:13:43I threw my neutron across the room.
- 00:13:45That's dangerous when you've got U-235 around.
- 00:13:47I think of U-235 like a mousetrap.
- 00:13:52So if you think about it, you've got this atom chilling out
- 00:13:55and it's got all these neutrons right there, ready to go.
- 00:14:00If it ever gets triggered, then it will fire
- 00:14:03and it will throw off these other neutrons and they go off.
- 00:14:07And so if you have a clever arrangement
- 00:14:10of more U-235 atoms around that,
- 00:14:13then you can start what's called a chain reaction.
- 00:14:16- [Narrator] Those neutrons bombard other uranium atoms,
- 00:14:19causing them to split and split still others.
- 00:14:24The result, a chain reaction.
- 00:14:27- They were doing fission,
- 00:14:28the breaking of big unstable atoms apart.
- 00:14:30And this wasn't as powerful as the fusion,
- 00:14:34the combining of atoms that's happening
- 00:14:35in the center of the sun,
- 00:14:36but it was still unlike anything the world had ever seen.
- 00:14:39- Under Hitler, the country was becoming
- 00:14:41the dominant power in Central Europe.
- 00:14:43- Germany was kind of getting ready
- 00:14:44to take over the entire world.
- 00:14:46And so they thought, what if we weaponize
- 00:14:48this new nuclear breaking thing we invented?
- 00:14:51And Einstein, the E=mc2 guy was alive at this time
- 00:14:55and watching his equations be turned into weapons.
- 00:14:58And Einstein writes this letter to the American president
- 00:15:01urging the U.S. to make the bomb before Germany does.
- 00:15:04And this is where we get into Oppenheimer,
- 00:15:06the Manhattan Project, brilliant physicists
- 00:15:09building atomic bombs in the desert,
- 00:15:11racing against time during World War II.
- 00:15:13The U.S. of course wins this race for the nuclear weapon.
- 00:15:16They dropped two of these fission bombs on Japan in 1945.
- 00:15:20The war is over and the world has changed forever.
- 00:15:24Nothing would ever be the same.
- 00:15:26It was the beginning of a new way of global conflict.
- 00:15:30A few years later, the Soviets made one of their own
- 00:15:33and thus begins a new race.
- 00:15:35Who can make the bigger bomb?
- 00:15:38And this is where the U.S. is like,
- 00:15:39let's not just do the thing where we break atoms apart,
- 00:15:42let's do what the sun is doing, fuse the atoms together.
- 00:15:46That's way more powerful.
- 00:15:47And they figure it out just a few years later
- 00:15:50and the results are insane.
- 00:15:52- [Speaker] Those are capable of megatons of power.
- 00:15:56A thousand times more powerful.
- 00:15:57Because apparently leveling a city was not powerful enough.
- 00:16:04(upbeat music)
- 00:16:09- Let me show you what today's nukes look like
- 00:16:11and how they work.
- 00:16:12This is a modern nuclear weapon,
- 00:16:14sometimes called a thermonuclear weapon, hydrogen bomb.
- 00:16:18This cone is about the same height as an American male.
- 00:16:21And the actual bomb is in here.
- 00:16:23We don't know exactly how big it is,
- 00:16:24but we know it's shaped like a peanut.
- 00:16:27This cone needs to be mounted on something
- 00:16:30to deliver it to the target.
- 00:16:32In this example, it's on a huge rocket
- 00:16:36that flies to space, can carry this nuke
- 00:16:39like over a thousand kilometers away.
- 00:16:41Eventually the rocket part falls away
- 00:16:43and the cone starts falling towards its target.
- 00:16:51And then when it hits its pre-programmed altitude,
- 00:16:54it detonates.
- 00:16:56But watch what happens, this is crazy.
- 00:16:58It's actually three bombs.
- 00:16:59It starts with just a regular old explosive bomb,
- 00:17:02no nuclear stuff yet.
- 00:17:05But this bomb inside of this very small peanut shaped space
- 00:17:09triggers a fission bomb.
- 00:17:12The first type that we invented,
- 00:17:13the one that overcomes the forces,
- 00:17:14keeping an atom stable and breaks them apart
- 00:17:16and turns a tiny bit of matter
- 00:17:17into a huge amount of energy.
- 00:17:19So there's a fission reaction happening
- 00:17:21and that shoots out a huge amount of energy
- 00:17:24at the speed of light
- 00:17:25that bounces off all these shiny beryllium walls.
- 00:17:28And then it hits this, and this is the final one.
- 00:17:31It's so hot in here, 100 million degrees Celsius,
- 00:17:34that we're basically in the core of a star.
- 00:17:37It's actually hotter than the core of our sun.
- 00:17:39Hot enough to do things that stars do.
- 00:17:42So now in this third bomb, the big one,
- 00:17:45hydrogen atoms are being smashed together into a new form.
- 00:17:49A little bit of matter is escaping into E equals MC square
- 00:17:52being multiplied by the speed of light squared.
- 00:17:56And what you get is total destruction.
- 00:18:03Yeah, I mean, we made that.
- 00:18:06We made that, that is possible.
- 00:18:08Those big ones have never been used in war
- 00:18:11and hopefully they never will.
- 00:18:12Okay, but how big are these?
- 00:18:13Let's put them on a city, my city, Washington, DC.
- 00:18:17Terrible thought, but we gotta do this exercise.
- 00:18:23If you were to drop a fission bomb,
- 00:18:25like the ones we dropped on Japan
- 00:18:26that killed hundreds of thousands,
- 00:18:28it would look like this.
- 00:18:31Upgrade that to a fusion bomb,
- 00:18:34like the ones deployed today,
- 00:18:35and it would look like this.
- 00:18:38Estimated 350,000 people dead in minutes.
- 00:18:42During the Cold War, we made these things huge.
- 00:18:44If you detonate the biggest fusion bomb ever tested,
- 00:18:47it would look like this.
- 00:18:51The city would be gone and people 40 miles away
- 00:18:55in like Baltimore would have life-threatening burns
- 00:18:57from the heat wave.
- 00:18:58300 square miles of buildings destroyed.
- 00:19:01I mean, this is a horrible possibility
- 00:19:04that we have invented, and we have a lot of them.
- 00:19:08(ominous music)
- 00:19:16Let's look at a map.
- 00:19:17I like looking at maps.
- 00:19:18We can't go too long without looking at a map.
- 00:19:24Today, there are around 12,000 nuclear warheads
- 00:19:28somewhere on Earth.
- 00:19:29That's 12,000, 12,000.
- 00:19:31That's enough firepower to level every sizable city
- 00:19:34on the planet several times over.
- 00:19:38The world used to have way more,
- 00:19:40like more than triple that during the Cold War.
- 00:19:42Almost every one of these nuclear warheads today
- 00:19:45is in the hands of two countries, the US and Russia.
- 00:19:49But in total, there are nine countries
- 00:19:51that possess these destructive bombs.
- 00:19:54And one of these countries doesn't admit
- 00:19:56that they have nuclear weapons, but they do.
- 00:19:58And America's nukes aren't just in America.
- 00:20:01They're scattered all over the world,
- 00:20:03in ally countries, on land, in air,
- 00:20:06deep in the ocean, lurking in submarines,
- 00:20:09in a configuration that the US calls its nuclear posture.
- 00:20:13It's one of the most important parts
- 00:20:15of America's military strategy today.
- 00:20:17And we're about to see how it actually works in real life
- 00:20:20because these 12,000 nukes shape our entire world.
- 00:20:24Their threat is ever-present.
- 00:20:26And so it turns the chessboard of geopolitics
- 00:20:29into a different thing than it was before.
- 00:20:36- Nuclear weapons, of course, did revolutionize warfare,
- 00:20:39so Bernard Brody in 1946 calls them the absolute weapon.
- 00:20:42He says that basically before the bomb was invented,
- 00:20:44the fundamental purpose of military establishments
- 00:20:47was to plan for, fight, and win wars,
- 00:20:49and now it would be to prevent them altogether.
- 00:20:51- So what stops countries from nuking each other?
- 00:20:55Well, uh-oh, my camera's shaking again.
- 00:20:58See you in the comments, folks.
- 00:21:00I don't have a way to stabilize this
- 00:21:01in a way that really keeps it from bouncing around.
- 00:21:05If you have suggestions on a better camera arm,
- 00:21:08I'll take it.
- 00:21:10So the central idea of all of this is pretty simple,
- 00:21:12pretty intuitive, kind of,
- 00:21:13but then it kind of messes with your brain in weird ways,
- 00:21:15and we'll see how that works.
- 00:21:18You've got these two big empires, they're rivals,
- 00:21:20they're competing with each other
- 00:21:21as big countries do and have always done,
- 00:21:23and maybe someday they won't, but they do for now.
- 00:21:25If there's no nukes in this equation,
- 00:21:28history has taught us that these two big empires
- 00:21:30will fight each other over land, over influence,
- 00:21:33over resources, over honor, over who knows.
- 00:21:35They will fight each other.
- 00:21:36That always has happened.
- 00:21:37That is the central threat of humanity,
- 00:21:39is big, powerful entities will fight each other.
- 00:21:42In recent centuries, it's gotten really destructive.
- 00:21:44Think of Europe and Asia in the 1940s.
- 00:21:47Countries are fighting because there's a chance
- 00:21:50that one of them can win.
- 00:21:51Okay, now, after 1945, put nukes on the board
- 00:21:55and watch what happens.
- 00:21:56- This new weapon that could inflict damage
- 00:21:58of the kind that we just never before imagined
- 00:22:01in human history.
- 00:22:02- Now, if these two empires get into a war with each other,
- 00:22:04they both know that it will escalate.
- 00:22:08They will keep using more and more extreme force
- 00:22:12until eventually one side will use nukes,
- 00:22:16to which the other will respond with their own nukes.
- 00:22:18And then it's game over for everyone.
- 00:22:21Nobody wins, everybody loses, the world is on fire.
- 00:22:25The concept of victory becomes irrelevant
- 00:22:27because everyone's dead.
- 00:22:29This creates a calculus of fear,
- 00:22:32an understanding that you will inflict
- 00:22:34way more consequences on yourself
- 00:22:36if you go to war with your geopolitical rival.
- 00:22:39And this threat of total destruction
- 00:22:41is stronger than the urge to fight and dominate.
- 00:22:45After World War II,
- 00:22:46after we witnessed this destructive bomb
- 00:22:49in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, something changed.
- 00:22:52We crossed a line of understanding
- 00:22:54that there really was something
- 00:22:55that could really sort of end it all.
- 00:22:57- It's about convincing the other side
- 00:22:59that attacking is just not worth it.
- 00:23:01Convincing both sides that the price is just too high.
- 00:23:03And unfortunately that means deterrence.
- 00:23:05- Deterrence, that is the word, that is the key concept.
- 00:23:09Comes from this root of like avoidance of something
- 00:23:13because of terror, fear.
- 00:23:15Terror prevents you from acting.
- 00:23:17And it weirdly, strangely, paradoxically kind of works.
- 00:23:22Though this is debated by scholars
- 00:23:23and when I was in grad school
- 00:23:24for peace and conflict resolution,
- 00:23:26there was a lot of compelling evidence
- 00:23:27that deterrence doesn't work,
- 00:23:28but I'm not getting into the literature right now.
- 00:23:30It is widely accepted that one of the major reasons
- 00:23:33great powers have not gone to war with each other directly
- 00:23:36in the last 70, 80 years is because of nuclear weapons.
- 00:23:39For those who wanna dispute that claim,
- 00:23:41I am so stoked for your good faith argument
- 00:23:44and dissent in the comments.
- 00:23:46I will read it and respond 'cause I love this stuff.
- 00:23:49Anyway, global politics today leans heavily
- 00:23:51on this grim logic, this balance of deterrence
- 00:23:55created by very destructive bombs that split atoms.
- 00:23:59But in order for deterrence to work,
- 00:24:00it can't just be the bombs.
- 00:24:02It has to have some other important ingredients.
- 00:24:05(upbeat music)
- 00:24:08First up, the threat needs to be believable.
- 00:24:10It needs to be credible.
- 00:24:11Your enemy has to believe that you will actually,
- 00:24:14credibly fire back a nuke,
- 00:24:16that you're not just making empty threats
- 00:24:18and bluffing all the time,
- 00:24:19that you actually have the ability and appetite
- 00:24:22to fire one of these things off.
- 00:24:24What that means is you gotta have these things
- 00:24:26ready to go at all times.
- 00:24:27You gotta have maps of targets to hit,
- 00:24:29thousands of targets in some cases,
- 00:24:32like here in these giant maps in a bunker command center
- 00:24:35that the U.S. had showing all the targets
- 00:24:37in the Soviet Union that they were ready to hit.
- 00:24:39The Soviets, of course, had a similar map
- 00:24:41of all the targets they were ready to hit.
- 00:24:43During the Cold War, the U.S. had a bomber plane
- 00:24:47with a nuke on it in the air 24/7 for eight years.
- 00:24:51It wasn't the same plane.
- 00:24:52They were obviously doing patrols,
- 00:24:53but there was always one in the air ready to drop a nuke.
- 00:24:56And this is why it remained a Cold War.
- 00:24:59But the Soviet Union fell and the big standoff
- 00:25:01kind of chilled out a little bit.
- 00:25:02But today, credibility is just as important
- 00:25:05to all of the nuclear powers,
- 00:25:07especially the big dogs, U.S., China, Russia.
- 00:25:09They all still have their nukes pointed
- 00:25:11at each other all the time.
- 00:25:13And all three make it really easy
- 00:25:16to make the decision to launch one.
- 00:25:18They centralize the decision-making
- 00:25:19into one person, the top leader.
- 00:25:21Like in the United States, we do this.
- 00:25:23The president is the sole authority
- 00:25:25who can authorize a nuclear strike.
- 00:25:27And legally, no one can veto his decision.
- 00:25:29He could launch a nuke within five minutes
- 00:25:32using some special authorization codes
- 00:25:34and relying on this football.
- 00:25:36I know it's not a football.
- 00:25:37It's a briefcase, but it's called the nuclear football.
- 00:25:39And inside of this, there's a phone
- 00:25:41and a scary black book that lists out
- 00:25:44all of the potential targets
- 00:25:45that the president could authorize a strike on.
- 00:25:47How many people would die?
- 00:25:49What the effect would be?
- 00:25:50It's all right there by his side all the time.
- 00:25:52And for those wondering, yes, it's that kind of football.
- 00:25:56Sorry, world.
- 00:25:57This is America.
- 00:26:00Okay, the next ingredient to deterrence
- 00:26:02is the ability to hit back.
- 00:26:04Meaning if one nuclear country
- 00:26:06is able to destroy all of your nukes in a surprise attack,
- 00:26:09then the whole thing falls apart.
- 00:26:11They now are not deterred because they can disarm you.
- 00:26:14So you gotta have more than one nuke
- 00:26:16and you kinda gotta spread them out and hide them.
- 00:26:19The US does this by spreading its nukes
- 00:26:21out all throughout the world
- 00:26:23and dividing them up by delivery methods.
- 00:26:25Some are sitting in these big underground silos
- 00:26:28that are spread all across the middle of the country.
- 00:26:31There's just rockets in here,
- 00:26:33ready to launch at a moment's notice.
- 00:26:36Others are sitting on airplanes
- 00:26:38positioned all around the globe.
- 00:26:39And as of two weeks ago,
- 00:26:41the US positioned 10 of its bombers,
- 00:26:45probably carrying nukes,
- 00:26:46here on this tiny little island in the Indian Ocean
- 00:26:49called Diego Garcia,
- 00:26:51which I've made a video about
- 00:26:52and want to make another video about 'cause it's wild.
- 00:26:54And yeah, there's just nukes on this island.
- 00:26:56North Korea, China, Russia, Iran,
- 00:26:58beware, there's nukes here, says the United States.
- 00:27:02And then of course,
- 00:27:03we've got nukes lurking in the depths of the ocean,
- 00:27:06sitting on submarines.
- 00:27:07These underwater buildings that are weapons
- 00:27:10and bases and command centers all in one.
- 00:27:13They can carry up to 20 missiles,
- 00:27:16each of them with multiple warheads.
- 00:27:19It's like the amount of destruction capability
- 00:27:21designed into these weapons is kind of unfathomable.
- 00:27:23And that's kind of the point.
- 00:27:25It has to be so bad, so easy to launch
- 00:27:27that your enemy's like not messing with that.
- 00:27:29Anyway, these different delivery systems
- 00:27:31are called the nuclear triad.
- 00:27:33Russia has something like it too.
- 00:27:34China's kind of developing their own triad.
- 00:27:36And all of this is so that we have
- 00:27:38that second ingredient of deterrence,
- 00:27:40the ability to strike back.
- 00:27:42These things are safe from a surprise attack
- 00:27:45that would take out all of our nukes.
- 00:27:48Okay, so you've got credibility in that you're ready to go.
- 00:27:51You've got a second strike capability,
- 00:27:52but where the rubber meets the road is the last ingredient.
- 00:27:55And this is where the mind games begin.
- 00:28:00Red lines.
- 00:28:01You have to signal to your enemy
- 00:28:03what they would have to do to warrant an attack.
- 00:28:06- The signal to each other
- 00:28:08on what to do and what to not do.
- 00:28:10So you can create guardrails for your competition.
- 00:28:12- The cleanest and safest way to do this
- 00:28:14is to just say, "Hey, we will not attack anyone
- 00:28:17"with our nukes unless they attack us
- 00:28:19"with their nukes first."
- 00:28:21This is called a no-first-use policy or nuclear doctrine.
- 00:28:25It's pretty straightforward,
- 00:28:26and it's much more about just protecting
- 00:28:28your national survival.
- 00:28:29And this is what China has articulated as their policy.
- 00:28:32Most countries operate with this
- 00:28:34as their kind of de facto policy.
- 00:28:36"Don't attack us with nukes or we'll nuke you back."
- 00:28:38It's a way of deterring anyone from trying to attack them.
- 00:28:42- Most other countries that has nuclear weapons
- 00:28:44fundamentally relies on them to assure
- 00:28:45the existence of their country.
- 00:28:46You have nuclear weapons and they're survivable,
- 00:28:48your country's probably not gonna be wiped off the map
- 00:28:50or be invaded.
- 00:28:52- But for the two big dogs on the stage,
- 00:28:54Russia and the United States,
- 00:28:56red lines are a way for them
- 00:28:57to kind of play mind games with each other
- 00:29:00because they believe that it would incentivize their enemy
- 00:29:02to do everything short of a nuclear attack.
- 00:29:06Chemical weapons, conventional attacks,
- 00:29:08all these other things that we also wanna deter.
- 00:29:10So both of them keep their red lines
- 00:29:13intentionally vague and fuzzy,
- 00:29:15forcing each other to constantly be questioning,
- 00:29:18where's the red line?
- 00:29:20Like, am I going too far?
- 00:29:21Am I gonna trigger a nuclear strike if I do this or that?
- 00:29:25This keeps both sides very far away
- 00:29:27from provoking each other
- 00:29:28'cause they're not sure where the red lines are.
- 00:29:30And this is the mind game
- 00:29:31at the heart of modern nuclear politics.
- 00:29:35It's a very dangerous mind game,
- 00:29:37but it's nonetheless the one we have.
- 00:29:39- If deterrence ever fails,
- 00:29:40then you just have this really terrible thing
- 00:29:42that could affect humanity's long-term survival.
- 00:29:45(ominous music)
- 00:29:49- Okay, now time for some payoff.
- 00:29:51I'm gonna apply this to the real world.
- 00:29:52We've been doing this kind of like conceptual,
- 00:29:54theoretical deterrence talk.
- 00:29:55I'm now going to show you how all of these ingredients
- 00:29:57and this deterrence plays out in the real world.
- 00:30:01(soft music)
- 00:30:05First, Ukraine.
- 00:30:07- People will say, didn't Western deterrence fail
- 00:30:10because Russia attacked it all?
- 00:30:12And I would say, absolutely not.
- 00:30:14In fact, it is a case study
- 00:30:16of how nuclear deterrence actually works.
- 00:30:18- I'm gonna make a list of all the moves and counter moves
- 00:30:21that these two nuclear powers play on each other.
- 00:30:23- The day the conflict started,
- 00:30:25Putin announced that he was putting his nuclear forces
- 00:30:27on high alert.
- 00:30:28It didn't quite have the intended effect.
- 00:30:29So like a few days later, he remade the same announcement.
- 00:30:33This time he had a photograph taken.
- 00:30:35That's a nuclear signal.
- 00:30:36But he meant that specifically for people like me
- 00:30:38who read that kind of stuff to say,
- 00:30:40oh, they're serious.
- 00:30:41I better tell Biden that this is serious.
- 00:30:43- Russia has shamelessly violated the core tenets
- 00:30:46of the United Nations Charter.
- 00:30:48- Putin was very clearly manipulating nuclear risk.
- 00:30:50He wanted all of Europe to know
- 00:30:51that Russia had nuclear weapons
- 00:30:54and they should remember that.
- 00:30:55- The West immediately responded with sanctions,
- 00:30:57punishing Russia's economy.
- 00:30:59But beyond that, there was a big debate.
- 00:31:01There was some fear, some deterrence.
- 00:31:04Should we send military troops?
- 00:31:05Should we send weapons?
- 00:31:07Maybe just send money?
- 00:31:09We don't wanna cross Putin's line.
- 00:31:11- The Russians drew a number of what they wanted us
- 00:31:14to believe were very clear red lines.
- 00:31:16If you supply them with mobile artillery,
- 00:31:18it'll be World War III.
- 00:31:19- Whoever would try to stop us
- 00:31:20and further create threats to our country,
- 00:31:23to our people, should know that Russia's response
- 00:31:26will be immediate and lead you to such consequences
- 00:31:29that you have never faced in your history.
- 00:31:32- See what he's doing here?
- 00:31:33Like, do you see how vague that language is?
- 00:31:36It's grand, it's scary, it's not specific.
- 00:31:38This is a blurry red line
- 00:31:40that forces the West to fill in the blanks for themselves,
- 00:31:44to think twice before sending troops or sending support,
- 00:31:47because what if he's serious?
- 00:31:48All right, your move, NATO.
- 00:31:49- Hundreds of thousands of NATO troops on heightened alert.
- 00:31:53- We're also taking steps to defend our NATO allies,
- 00:31:56particularly in the East.
- 00:31:57- Putin's saber-rattling did instill some fear in the West.
- 00:32:01So instead of sending troops to Ukraine,
- 00:32:04NATO deployed 40,000 of their troops to the border,
- 00:32:07just outside of Ukraine.
- 00:32:11And then the West responded
- 00:32:13by doing some signaling of their own,
- 00:32:15saying that the use of nuclear weapons would result in,
- 00:32:17quote, "catastrophic consequences for Russia."
- 00:32:21- The wind of the conflict sort of blew some sand
- 00:32:24over the red lines and they got into,
- 00:32:26turned into pink fuzzy lines
- 00:32:27that the West eventually started to test and tolerate.
- 00:32:29- And then the NATO countries do start sending weapons,
- 00:32:32but they don't send them all at once.
- 00:32:34They're worried that might cross his line.
- 00:32:36So they have to calibrate their response
- 00:32:38and they start sending weapons a little at a time.
- 00:32:40I mean, it wasn't a little, it was a lot of weapons,
- 00:32:42but they could have sent way more
- 00:32:43and it could have actually made
- 00:32:44a big difference in Ukraine,
- 00:32:45but they didn't wanna cross his red line.
- 00:32:47And they don't totally know where it is.
- 00:32:49- It's like adjusting a thermostat.
- 00:32:50Like, you don't want the temperature to get too hot.
- 00:32:51You don't want it to get too cold.
- 00:32:52Nuclear deterrence deeply frustrated not just the Russians
- 00:32:55and deeply frustrated the West
- 00:32:56and frustrated the Ukrainians.
- 00:32:57And so it's this thing we rely on for security,
- 00:33:00but it also endlessly, I think,
- 00:33:02makes the world we inhabit
- 00:33:04a lot more complicated to maneuver.
- 00:33:05- Throughout this war,
- 00:33:06Putin continues issuing nuclear threats.
- 00:33:09And then he moved some of his nukes to Belarus,
- 00:33:11another move on the chessboard.
- 00:33:13He even officially changes Russia's nuclear doctrine,
- 00:33:17which is like their public facing policy
- 00:33:18on when they'll use nukes.
- 00:33:20He changes it to have a lower threshold,
- 00:33:22like to make it easier for Russia to use nukes.
- 00:33:25The US is getting ready to send long range missiles
- 00:33:27to Ukraine so that Ukraine can strike Russia
- 00:33:30deep into the country.
- 00:33:31But Putin says that if he does this,
- 00:33:33it's gonna have big consequences
- 00:33:35and it actually gives then President Biden some pause.
- 00:33:38He's deterred for a little bit,
- 00:33:39being like, "Am I gonna cross a red line
- 00:33:41if I send these missiles to Ukraine?"
- 00:33:43Eventually the pressure mounted
- 00:33:45and he did end up sending the long range missiles.
- 00:33:47Ukraine used them.
- 00:33:48Russia was angry, but they didn't use nukes.
- 00:33:51It was once again a bluff.
- 00:33:53So ultimately, Putin did slow down the West's support,
- 00:33:56deterred them a little bit with his bluster.
- 00:33:59- They kind of worked,
- 00:34:00not as effectively as Russia would want.
- 00:34:01Putin's threats to slow American and Western support
- 00:34:05in ways that was deeply damaging to Ukraine's defense.
- 00:34:09But they did have a time limited effect
- 00:34:10that eventually the West called their bluff.
- 00:34:13- People will talk about Putin's nuclear blackmail.
- 00:34:15And like, I'm sorry, I have no love for Vladimir Putin.
- 00:34:18There is no such thing as nuclear blackmail.
- 00:34:20It is all nuclear deterrence.
- 00:34:22What he was doing was practicing nuclear deterrence.
- 00:34:24We love deterring
- 00:34:25because it makes our national objectives
- 00:34:28easier to accomplish.
- 00:34:29But when the other guy does it to us,
- 00:34:30it kind of ruins our day
- 00:34:32and we call it nuclear blackmail.
- 00:34:33- I mean, listen, Russia and the United States,
- 00:34:35they've been playing this chess game
- 00:34:36of red lines and nuclear weapons since the '50s.
- 00:34:39So it's like, they kind of know each other's red lines.
- 00:34:41And most experts I talked to were like,
- 00:34:43yeah, there was a lot of nuclear bluster,
- 00:34:44but it was a lot of show.
- 00:34:46It was not actually close to a real strike.
- 00:34:49That being said, all it takes is one dude
- 00:34:54having a bad day and getting emotional
- 00:34:56about his pride and honor to change everything.
- 00:35:00It's a really fragile, terrifying balance
- 00:35:03that relies on Vladimir Putin's brain.
- 00:35:06And during a lot of this,
- 00:35:07you saw Russian elites and journalists
- 00:35:09and even policymakers clamoring
- 00:35:12to use nuclear weapons to reset the credibility.
- 00:35:16They're like, dude, you're losing the credibility.
- 00:35:17We're gonna lose the deterrent.
- 00:35:18Use a small tactical nuke in Ukraine
- 00:35:21and your credibility will be restored.
- 00:35:23- A hawkish voice in Moscow is now advocating
- 00:35:25that Russia should launch a limited nuclear strike.
- 00:35:29- And certainly Putin considered that.
- 00:35:31But luckily, sanity prevailed and he didn't do it.
- 00:35:40So India and Pakistan both have nukes.
- 00:35:41And this is really the only place
- 00:35:43where two nuclear powers fight each other directly.
- 00:35:45India has 172 nukes and they use them
- 00:35:48not just to deter Pakistan, but also China.
- 00:35:51For a long time, India did what the big powers do
- 00:35:54and kept their red lines vague,
- 00:35:56using that ambiguity to make their neighbors think twice
- 00:35:59about trying to take any of this disputed territory
- 00:36:02up in the mountains.
- 00:36:03But in an effort to influence stability
- 00:36:06and be a responsible nuclear power,
- 00:36:07in the early 2000s, they said they were joining China
- 00:36:09to adopt a no-first-use policy,
- 00:36:12meaning they won't nuke anyone unless they get nuked first.
- 00:36:15Now, ironically, some have pointed out
- 00:36:18that this actually invites attacks up on these borders,
- 00:36:21as we've seen in recent years.
- 00:36:23So Pakistan has around 170 nukes as well,
- 00:36:26but they've opted to keep the vague red line
- 00:36:28that makes India's much more powerful military
- 00:36:30think twice before attempting to conquer
- 00:36:33any of this disputed territory.
- 00:36:42All right, nuclear deterrence is playing a huge role
- 00:36:44in Taiwan, where nuclear-armed China
- 00:36:48is constantly flexing its power
- 00:36:50as it becomes more and more powerful in the region,
- 00:36:52but is, inconveniently for them, running into this.
- 00:36:56This is America's nuclear umbrella in Asia.
- 00:36:58We call it an umbrella because it covers our allies.
- 00:37:02It's basically a promise to defend South Korea and Japan
- 00:37:06if they're ever attacked.
- 00:37:07And the red lines are pretty clear here.
- 00:37:09It's a reason why these countries feel safe
- 00:37:11and why they feel like they don't need
- 00:37:13to get a nuclear weapon for themselves
- 00:37:14because the U.S. has their back, okay?
- 00:37:17They've got a nuclear deterrent protecting them.
- 00:37:19But Taiwan is different.
- 00:37:20It is widely seen as like the top place on Earth
- 00:37:23where a miscalculation could escalate
- 00:37:26into war between two nuclear powers
- 00:37:28because China has vowed to take Taiwan.
- 00:37:31They believe that it's rightfully theirs,
- 00:37:33it always has been,
- 00:37:34and that eventually they will take it, even if by force.
- 00:37:37But deterrence is a major reason
- 00:37:39why they haven't done so yet.
- 00:37:42And it's the U.S. that's playing
- 00:37:43the fuzzy red line game here.
- 00:37:45If China invades Taiwan, will the U.S. come to its rescue?
- 00:37:49Who knows?
- 00:37:50- U.S. forces, U.S. men and women,
- 00:37:53would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
- 00:37:56- Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack.
- 00:37:59- Whoa, Biden just said they would,
- 00:38:01but then, seconds later,
- 00:38:03the White House retracted that statement and apologized.
- 00:38:06- The White House is now walking back
- 00:38:07President Biden's comments on Taiwan.
- 00:38:10- [Reporter] Officially, the U.S. will not say
- 00:38:12whether American forces would defend Taiwan.
- 00:38:15- Blurry red line.
- 00:38:17Will they protect Taiwan or will they not?
- 00:38:19Now, the U.S. might be bluffing here.
- 00:38:21They might actually not be willing
- 00:38:23to go like send their own troops in
- 00:38:25to confront China if they invade Taiwan,
- 00:38:27but they need Beijing to think that they might
- 00:38:30because that is such a horrifying potential
- 00:38:32that it will prevent China from
- 00:38:34attacking in the first place.
- 00:38:35And that's deterrence.
- 00:38:43Okay, pan up here to another nuclear chess game
- 00:38:47of high stakes and irrational minds and fuzzy red lines.
- 00:38:51- North Korea has the world's lowest realistic threshold,
- 00:38:55I think, for nuclear weapons used today.
- 00:38:57- North Korea has got 50 warheads
- 00:38:59and they actually have a very clear red line.
- 00:39:02They have stated that if the regime's survival
- 00:39:05is ever threatened, they will use their nukes.
- 00:39:08And by the regime, I mean the Kim family,
- 00:39:10the dictators who've ruled North Korea since its founding.
- 00:39:13This is a terrifying prospect
- 00:39:14and they've really made us believe
- 00:39:16that this is a credible threat.
- 00:39:17They test their nukes.
- 00:39:18They're constantly like, "Dude, we're ready to attack
- 00:39:21if you ever get close to trying to overthrow the regime."
- 00:39:24And they easily could.
- 00:39:26The capital of South Korea is like right there.
- 00:39:28And as of 2017, they've got rockets
- 00:39:32that could send a nuclear weapon
- 00:39:34to the mainland United States.
- 00:39:36So now they really have a deterrent that gives us pause
- 00:39:39before doing anything to provoke them.
- 00:39:41- When you're the president of the United States
- 00:39:42and you're deciding whether you're gonna run that risk
- 00:39:44and you're gonna go all the way to Pyongyang
- 00:39:46and remove Kim from power,
- 00:39:47knowing that he's got 10 ICBMs
- 00:39:49that could hit one of your cities,
- 00:39:51that is not a decision that you make in a cavalier manner.
- 00:39:54And so that is essentially the mechanism of deterrence.
- 00:39:57It is as Dr. Strangelove says,
- 00:39:58it is creating in the mind of your enemy
- 00:40:00the fear to attack.
- 00:40:01And that is what Kim Jong-un is trying to do.
- 00:40:04- They use their nukes to basically ensure the survival
- 00:40:06and the reign of power of the Kim family.
- 00:40:09It's like a core part of what keeps them going.
- 00:40:11And of all the nuclear powers,
- 00:40:12they weaponize irrationality.
- 00:40:14I mean, this kind of theater
- 00:40:15of being like the crazy dictator
- 00:40:17with his hand on the trigger
- 00:40:18is a really powerful deterrent.
- 00:40:20It's a major reason why the US and South Korea
- 00:40:22and anyone won't get anywhere near the red line.
- 00:40:25And it forces the United States
- 00:40:27to grapple with whether or not
- 00:40:29they would provoke a nuclear attack on their soil
- 00:40:31to protect South Korea.
- 00:40:34Deterrence has so far kept the whole thing
- 00:40:36in this sort of tense, scary balance,
- 00:40:38but that could change any minute and hopefully it doesn't.
- 00:40:43(soft music)
- 00:40:46So can we just stop the nukes, please?
- 00:40:51Can we as humanity just agree
- 00:40:53that this is completely irrational, totally insane,
- 00:40:56that we've invented these things and that we wield them?
- 00:40:58And can we all just agree
- 00:41:00that it would be better to not have them at all?
- 00:41:03Could we?
- 00:41:04Ooh, I wish, but it's a little more complicated.
- 00:41:07I mean, 73 countries have signed a treaty
- 00:41:09saying they'll never develop nukes.
- 00:41:11Could we just get everyone else to do it?
- 00:41:12Seems sensible.
- 00:41:13Unfortunately, most experts I talked to say
- 00:41:15it's not quite that simple.
- 00:41:17- Unfortunately, you can't un-invent the technology
- 00:41:20and actually, sudden disarmament
- 00:41:23would put you in a much more dangerous position
- 00:41:26where any country could suddenly leap
- 00:41:28into a position of massive power
- 00:41:30by just committing to building
- 00:41:32lots and lots of nuclear warheads.
- 00:41:33- We still live in a world
- 00:41:34where big countries are skeptical of each other.
- 00:41:37There's no central authority governing everyone.
- 00:41:40And so countries naturally compete with each other.
- 00:41:43They're constantly trying to one-up each other
- 00:41:45to protect themselves and scare their enemy.
- 00:41:48That is like a natural law of international relations.
- 00:41:51I hope it's not the case someday
- 00:41:52'cause it really, like, our world would be much better
- 00:41:54if we all just cooperated.
- 00:41:56But for now, this is how we do it.
- 00:41:58The current arrangement is that, yes, we do diplomacy
- 00:42:01and we do some international law,
- 00:42:03but a major stabilizer for the big empires
- 00:42:05is everyone having a gun pointed at each other
- 00:42:07so that no one does anything crazy.
- 00:42:09It gives way to a bunch of other types of conflict,
- 00:42:13proxy wars we've talked a lot about on this channel,
- 00:42:16but for now, it has kept the big powers
- 00:42:18from going into a full cataclysmic war.
- 00:42:20- And unfortunately, half of this community just says,
- 00:42:23"We need to get rid of all the corporates tomorrow!"
- 00:42:25(yells)
- 00:42:26And the other half says,
- 00:42:27"No, we need new corporates for everything,
- 00:42:28including stopping asteroids!" (yells)
- 00:42:32We need everyone to take a deep breath
- 00:42:34and think strategically and think in the longer term.
- 00:42:36- So how do we manage this then?
- 00:42:38During the Cold War, we saw the US and the Soviet Union
- 00:42:41figure out a way to work together while still having nukes.
- 00:42:44They could still do the deterrence thing,
- 00:42:46the credibility, the red lines, all of that,
- 00:42:49but instead of just constantly one-upping each other,
- 00:42:51they started to reduce,
- 00:42:53and that's how we went from having
- 00:42:54tens of thousands of nukes
- 00:42:56to just having 12,000 today.
- 00:42:57What's tricky about this new world we're entering into
- 00:43:00is that it's not just two powers.
- 00:43:02- Soviet Union went poof,
- 00:43:04and we had this moment of global nuclear optimism.
- 00:43:07Today, it's like all of the dynamics
- 00:43:08are heading in the wrong direction.
- 00:43:09We have competitive great power dynamics,
- 00:43:11we have new entrants like North Korea,
- 00:43:13we have India and Pakistan innovating in their own way
- 00:43:16about how they wanna fight wars under the nuclear shadow,
- 00:43:19and so all of that takes us to a place
- 00:43:21where, unfortunately, this broader toolkit
- 00:43:23that we have relied on
- 00:43:25to render this enterprise of nuclear deterrence
- 00:43:27somewhat more predictable and manageable for mankind
- 00:43:30is under great strain.
- 00:43:31- I think we'll move towards safer, smaller ones.
- 00:43:35More, I don't know.
- 00:43:36I mean, I think the US and Russia are gonna stay stable,
- 00:43:40but it depends on what China does.
- 00:43:41If China matches them,
- 00:43:43does Russia feel like they need to be bigger than China?
- 00:43:45I don't know.
- 00:43:46And if Russia races, does the US race?
- 00:43:48And then does this become a congressional thing
- 00:43:50where we say it has to be US equals Russia
- 00:43:53plus China plus one?
- 00:43:55Well, then what happens when North Korea hits 1,000?
- 00:43:57Or what happens, ah, you know what I mean?
- 00:43:59Like, if we're racing,
- 00:44:00and again, because of the asymmetries of all these races,
- 00:44:03then everybody ends up,
- 00:44:05do we end up with everybody with 10,000 in these things?
- 00:44:07I hope not.
- 00:44:08That, I really think we could have talks to get out of.
- 00:44:10- China seems to be building their nuclear arsenal
- 00:44:13very quickly,
- 00:44:14and they are not telling the world why.
- 00:44:17- Why is China doing this buildup?
- 00:44:18Like, that is still being debated.
- 00:44:20Xi Jinping has not given us a speech,
- 00:44:22like, telling us why we're seeing
- 00:44:23more nuclear weapons in China.
- 00:44:24Imaginations have run wild in Washington a little bit
- 00:44:27about what China's goals are here.
- 00:44:28- There was a moment during the Cold War
- 00:44:30where it got really bad.
- 00:44:32Cuba, the Cuban Missile Crisis,
- 00:44:33you've probably heard of it.
- 00:44:34The closest we ever got to, like,
- 00:44:36actually going full bore into a nuclear war
- 00:44:38with the Soviet Union.
- 00:44:39And that sort of woke everyone up to the insanity.
- 00:44:42It sort of, like, gave us the picture
- 00:44:44of how close we were to, like, mass annihilation.
- 00:44:47And it was that crisis that helped the two countries
- 00:44:51increase communication lines with each other,
- 00:44:54put in place some frameworks to, like,
- 00:44:57make sure that nothing crazy happens.
- 00:44:59And it really did stabilize the world
- 00:45:01and eventually led to the reduction of all of these nukes.
- 00:45:04We're going to need to do that again.
- 00:45:06Like, we're gonna have to have those conversations again.
- 00:45:08The question is,
- 00:45:09is it going to take another scary crisis
- 00:45:12and a close call to get us there?
- 00:45:15- What is it we really want?
- 00:45:16We want peace and stability.
- 00:45:18We want us all to be able
- 00:45:19to survive for another generation.
- 00:45:21How do we do that best?
- 00:45:23We need to defend ourselves
- 00:45:24and we need to redevelop the habit
- 00:45:26of thinking more strategically and diplomacy
- 00:45:29and talking to our adversaries
- 00:45:31in order to try to avoid the next conflict
- 00:45:33and get to somewhere with peace.
- 00:45:35The hard work needs to happen now.
- 00:45:37(soft music)
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- 00:46:31(soft music)
- nuclear weapons
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- Cold War
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