Russia's Impending Economic Implosion

00:51:44
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7dfgOh3AE4

الملخص

TLDRThe video delves into the reasons why Western sanctions against Russia, following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, have not had the anticipated effect. It highlights how Russia has managed to maintain economic stability and even grow its economy by leveraging trade relationships with non-Western countries, particularly China and India, and focusing its economic efforts on military production. The historical evolution of sanctions and their use as geopolitical tools are explored alongside the inherent weaknesses in their application against great powers like Russia. Furthermore, the video discusses the strategic gaps exploited by Russia, such as the dependence gap (creating Western dependency on Russian resources) and the globalization gap (shifting trade to countries unbothered by Western sanctions). It also touches on the geopolitical realignments resulting from the invasion, impacting global power dynamics. In essence, the video argues that sanctions are insufficient to curb Russia's ambitions, as evidenced by Putin's commitment to the war despite economic and human costs.

الوجبات الجاهزة

  • 🌍 Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered a major geopolitical realignment.
  • 📈 Western sanctions have failed to stop Russia's economic growth.
  • 💡 Russia's strategic planning involves increasing Western dependence on its energy.
  • ⛽ China's and India's trade with Russia helps offset Western sanctions.
  • 💪 Russia's economy is focused on sustaining the war through military production.
  • 🔎 Western sanctions face challenges due to unrealistic demands.
  • 🌐 The shift in global economic power complicates sanctions effectiveness.
  • 🛑 UN Security Council's veto power shields Russia from UN sanctions.
  • 🧠 Globalization has weakened Western sanctions over time.
  • 📉 Russia's economy sacrifices civilian sectors for military goals.

الجدول الزمني

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    In the 1990s, the Soviet Union had a growing economy, but it collapsed in 1991. Although highly sanctioned, Russia's economy is still growing, causing debate on the effectiveness of sanctions amidst geopolitical tensions sparked by the Ukrainian invasion.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Sanctions are applied globally to enforce political change without warfare. Historical sanctions often failed when they targeted entire populations, leading modern sanctions to focus more specifically on leadership and key economic sectors.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Despite historical roots, sanctions have had mixed results. The use of sanctions expanded as political tools post-World War II, notably during the Cold War, but their efficacy remains debatable as global powers continue to resist yielding.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    US led in Cold War sanctions, aiming against ideological threats but Europe was less committed due to dependency on Soviet economy. Sanctions' effectiveness remains tied to geopolitical realities and the relative power of involved nations.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Post-Cold War sanctions increased globally. US has since used sanctions more deeply in lieu of military force. However, growing global multipolar power makes comprehensive enforcement difficult, bringing into question their long-term effectiveness.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    Sanctions are complex and their success is mixed. Issues like unrealistic demands and the resilience of sanctioned states spotlight challenges. Multipolarity and countries like China support targeted economies indirectly, impacting sanctions' success.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    Russia prepared for sanctions with diversification, leading to the dependence gap, especially in energy, where integration with Europe complicated effective EU sanctions, highlighting economic interdependence challenges in applying pressure.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    Globalization has eroded Western economic dominance, allowing Russia to navigate around sanctions through partnerships with China and India, emphasizing shifting economic power dynamics and the limitations of unilateral Western pressure.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:45:00

    Russia's economic strategies, alliances, and authoritarian resilience have mitigated sanctions' impact. Factors like economic shifts, supportive alliances, and the determination of leadership are key in neutralizing Western economic pressures.

  • 00:45:00 - 00:51:44

    The persistence of Russian strategy, despite sanctions, raises questions about global power dynamics, highlighting limited Western influence. Russia’s adaptive economic strategies and geopolitical maneuvers continue to challenge traditional sanction efficacy.

اعرض المزيد

الخريطة الذهنية

Mind Map

الأسئلة الشائعة

  • What motivated the creation of this video?

    The creator wanted to explore why Western sanctions against Russia aren't having the expected impact.

  • How did sanctions historically work and evolve?

    Sanctions evolved from broad measures affecting entire populations to more targeted forms affecting specific entities.

  • What are the main sectors targeted by Western sanctions on Russia?

    Key industries include the energy sector and financial institutions, with sanctions also targeting high-profile individuals.

  • Why are Western sanctions struggling to impact Russia as intended?

    Russia has been able to maintain trade relationships with non-sanction-participating countries and has geared its economy towards military production.

  • What is the 'dependence gap' referred to in the video?

    It's Russia's strategic focus on making Western countries dependent on its natural resources, particularly energy, while reducing its own dependencies.

  • How has globalization influenced Russia’s ability to avoid sanctions?

    Globalization has shifted economic power towards countries like China and India, which have continued trading with Russia.

  • Why is it difficult to impose UN sanctions on Russia?

    Russia has veto power as one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, preventing the imposition of sanctions.

  • What impact has the war had on Ukraine and Russia’s economies?

    Ukraine's economy is strained, while Russia has adapted by focusing its economy on military production and redirecting trade to friendly countries.

  • Why does Vladimir Putin continue the war despite heavy costs?

    Putin is determined to reassert Russian national pride and power, even at great economic and human cost.

  • What role have countries like China and India played in Russia's economic strategy?

    Both countries have increased imports of Russian energy, aiding Russia's financial situation amid Western sanctions.

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الترجمات
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التمرير التلقائي:
  • 00:00:00
    in the
  • 00:00:00
    1990s the Soviet Union's GDP was growing
  • 00:00:05
    the economy was ranked second depending
  • 00:00:07
    on who you
  • 00:00:09
    ask but then in
  • 00:00:11
    1991 there was no Soviet Union the
  • 00:00:14
    Soviet president Mel gorbachov has been
  • 00:00:16
    removed from power now Vladimir Putin
  • 00:00:19
    thinks the Russian economy is doing
  • 00:00:21
    great this is an amazing result it seems
  • 00:00:23
    that we are being strangled and crushed
  • 00:00:25
    from all sides but we have become the
  • 00:00:27
    first country in Europe in terms of
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    economic volume so so does the
  • 00:00:30
    international monetary fund now Russia
  • 00:00:32
    is the most sanctioned country in the
  • 00:00:34
    world yet this year its economy is set
  • 00:00:36
    to grow faster than all advanced
  • 00:00:38
    economies according to the international
  • 00:00:40
    monetary fund but 22% of Russians don't
  • 00:00:43
    have indoor plumbing 67% of rural
  • 00:00:46
    Russians don't have indoor plumbing and
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    Russian casualties are expected to hit 1
  • 00:00:50
    million by the end of the year but who
  • 00:00:53
    cares right the Russian economy grew
  • 00:00:56
    3.6% in 2023 so now every pro-russian
  • 00:01:00
    expert and their mom is loudly and
  • 00:01:02
    proudly saying that sanctions are not
  • 00:01:05
    working they claim that Putin is winning
  • 00:01:07
    this war while the other side is arguing
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    that numbers are fake but in this
  • 00:01:11
    argument everyone seems to be forgetting
  • 00:01:13
    an important truth Russia's invasion of
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    Ukraine has accelerated a geopolitical
  • 00:01:19
    realignment that will Define the first
  • 00:01:21
    half of the 21st century this
  • 00:01:23
    realignment will affect everyone from
  • 00:01:26
    world leaders to average people for more
  • 00:01:29
    than 2 years Western policy makers have
  • 00:01:31
    been trying to answer two very important
  • 00:01:34
    questions why aren't Western sanctions
  • 00:01:36
    having the impact they expected and if
  • 00:01:39
    sanctions aren't the effective
  • 00:01:41
    geopolitical tool we thought they were
  • 00:01:44
    well then what I was interested in
  • 00:01:46
    exploring the same questions so I made
  • 00:01:48
    this video in part one I'll explain what
  • 00:01:50
    sanctions are and how they've been used
  • 00:01:52
    throughout history in part two I'll give
  • 00:01:54
    a quick overview of the main sanctions
  • 00:01:56
    applied since Russia invaded Ukraine and
  • 00:01:59
    finally in part three I'll talk about
  • 00:02:01
    the reasons Russia has been able to keep
  • 00:02:03
    fighting the war despite the sanctions
  • 00:02:06
    some of those reasons are because of
  • 00:02:07
    inherent problems with sanctions While
  • 00:02:10
    others are unique to Russia this is the
  • 00:02:13
    most detailed video you'll watch about
  • 00:02:14
    the impact of Western sanctions on the
  • 00:02:16
    Russian economy and it's about to start
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    right now now any criticizing Russia is
  • 00:02:23
    bombarded with dislikes from Bots from
  • 00:02:25
    Russia but this video is directly
  • 00:02:27
    calling out Putin and his lies I'm sure
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    Russian Bots are not going to be happy
  • 00:02:32
    with this so if you can please do me a
  • 00:02:34
    favor and hit the like button below it
  • 00:02:36
    helps us out a
  • 00:02:41
    lot there are three unique reasons why
  • 00:02:44
    Russia has seemingly Shrugged off
  • 00:02:46
    Western sanctions the first one is what
  • 00:02:49
    I'll call the dependence Gap the second
  • 00:02:51
    is the globalization Gap and the third
  • 00:02:53
    is the determination gap before I talk
  • 00:02:56
    about each of them in depth I'll explain
  • 00:02:58
    what sanctions are and what what they're
  • 00:03:00
    supposed to do sanctions are penalties
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    applied to sovereign states or
  • 00:03:05
    multilateral organizations like the
  • 00:03:06
    United Nations against other states
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    groups or individuals generally speaking
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    sanctions work in two ways either
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    they're supposed to apply enough
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    pressure on a targeted regime to change
  • 00:03:17
    its Behavior or they're supposed to put
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    enough pressure on the society
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    underneath to rise up and topple the
  • 00:03:24
    regime sanctions started out as very
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    broad measures that usually affected
  • 00:03:29
    entire groups today however they're
  • 00:03:31
    usually more targeted as a result
  • 00:03:34
    sanctions today come in a wide range of
  • 00:03:36
    forms including trade barriers asset
  • 00:03:39
    freezes travel banss arms embargos and
  • 00:03:42
    restrictions on financial transactions
  • 00:03:45
    they're like a geopolitical all you can
  • 00:03:47
    eat okay so those are the absolute
  • 00:03:49
    Basics the next questions how have
  • 00:03:51
    sanctions actually been used and which
  • 00:03:54
    countries have actually used them the
  • 00:03:55
    most these questions are important
  • 00:03:57
    because they'll help us understand how
  • 00:03:59
    governments and organizations have used
  • 00:04:01
    sanctions as a diplomatic and economic
  • 00:04:03
    weapon the concept of using sanctions as
  • 00:04:05
    a tool for punishing or detering
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    adversaries has been around since
  • 00:04:09
    ancient Greece however it wasn't until
  • 00:04:12
    the early 19th century during the
  • 00:04:14
    Napoleonic Wars that they were used at
  • 00:04:16
    scale Emperor Napoleon desperately
  • 00:04:19
    wanted to defeat the British who were
  • 00:04:21
    the main funders and supporters of
  • 00:04:22
    anti-french alliances but he simply
  • 00:04:25
    couldn't defeat the mighty Royal Navy so
  • 00:04:28
    he hatched another plan at the time the
  • 00:04:30
    British depended on trade with the rest
  • 00:04:32
    of Europe for its Prosperity Napoleon
  • 00:04:35
    knew that because the Royal Navy
  • 00:04:37
    controlled the Seas he couldn't enforce
  • 00:04:39
    a blockade but he also knew that if he
  • 00:04:41
    succeeded in preventing trade from ports
  • 00:04:43
    under his control that France would
  • 00:04:46
    prevent British products from Landing in
  • 00:04:47
    the first place this form of economic
  • 00:04:50
    coercion was a specific type of sanction
  • 00:04:52
    known as a blockade and although in the
  • 00:04:55
    end the Continental blockade didn't have
  • 00:04:57
    the impact that Napoleon was hoping for
  • 00:05:00
    it still ushered in a new era of
  • 00:05:02
    economic Warfare sanctions became a
  • 00:05:04
    recognized feature of international law
  • 00:05:07
    when they were enshrined in the founding
  • 00:05:08
    documents of the League of Nations when
  • 00:05:11
    US president WRA Wilson one of the
  • 00:05:13
    League's Architects and Main Advocates
  • 00:05:15
    was urging Americans to support the
  • 00:05:17
    creation of the league he explicitly
  • 00:05:19
    made the argument that he saw sanctions
  • 00:05:21
    as a substitute for war a nation
  • 00:05:24
    boycotted is a nation that is in sight
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    of surrender he said in 1919
  • 00:05:30
    apply this economic peaceful silent
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    deadly remedy and there will be no need
  • 00:05:35
    for force it is a terrible remedy for
  • 00:05:38
    four years the world watched on in
  • 00:05:40
    horror as millions of young men were cut
  • 00:05:43
    down by new weapons of war just as the
  • 00:05:46
    march of technological progress made
  • 00:05:47
    those weapons artillery poison gas
  • 00:05:50
    bombing aircraft the march of political
  • 00:05:52
    and diplomatic progress created new
  • 00:05:54
    tools of diplomacy tragically however
  • 00:05:57
    the League of Nations failed in its
  • 00:05:59
    mission
  • 00:06:00
    less than 20 years after it was created
  • 00:06:02
    Nazi Germany invaded Poland and
  • 00:06:04
    Czechoslovakia the world fell into war
  • 00:06:06
    once again Beyond its unimaginable human
  • 00:06:09
    cost World War II also created a new
  • 00:06:12
    Global Order into the power vacuum left
  • 00:06:14
    by Europe's Retreat stepped two
  • 00:06:17
    superpowers on one side representing
  • 00:06:19
    capitalism and democracy the United
  • 00:06:22
    States on the other side flying the iron
  • 00:06:24
    Banner of socialism the Soviet Union the
  • 00:06:27
    US which already had experienced us
  • 00:06:29
    trade sanctions as a means of regulating
  • 00:06:31
    World politics wasted no time in
  • 00:06:34
    imposing tough sanctions against its new
  • 00:06:36
    rival the export Control Act of 1949
  • 00:06:39
    restricted the export of strategic
  • 00:06:41
    materials and equipment to Soviet block
  • 00:06:44
    Nations originally it was intended as
  • 00:06:46
    just a temporary measure but the
  • 00:06:48
    outbreak of the Korean War in 1950 Drew
  • 00:06:50
    sharp battle lines capitalism and
  • 00:06:54
    socialism locked horns in the massive
  • 00:06:56
    ideological confrontation known as the
  • 00:06:59
    the Cold War and the US turned toward
  • 00:07:02
    sanctions there were two reasons why the
  • 00:07:04
    first was its rapidly growing economic
  • 00:07:06
    power World War II didn't have any
  • 00:07:09
    winners but the US fared better than
  • 00:07:11
    every other major power it lost a
  • 00:07:13
    relatively small share of its population
  • 00:07:15
    its cities and infrastructure remained
  • 00:07:17
    intact it massively scaled up its
  • 00:07:20
    industrial manufacturing capability and
  • 00:07:22
    after the war it welcomed millions of
  • 00:07:24
    new migrants while also gaining The
  • 00:07:26
    Leverage that came with the funding of
  • 00:07:28
    the reconstruction of Western Europe the
  • 00:07:31
    US's Newfound power meant that for the
  • 00:07:33
    first time the country supplied a
  • 00:07:35
    significant share of the world's foreign
  • 00:07:38
    aid it didn't take long to learn that
  • 00:07:40
    stopping the flow of that Aid or at
  • 00:07:42
    least threatening to was a good way to
  • 00:07:44
    apply economic pressure the second
  • 00:07:46
    factor which made the sanctions an
  • 00:07:48
    appealing substitute for military force
  • 00:07:50
    was the proliferation of nuclear weapons
  • 00:07:53
    before talking about that did you guys
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    see that Ronaldo just got 50 million
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    subscribers in a week on a brand new
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    terms of time spent on tv YouTube is the
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    new TV the new Hollywood and the new
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    Netflix in fact YouTube is growing so
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    fast that Youtube CEO publicly said they
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    don't have enough creators to fill the
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    demands of viewers that means it's the
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    easiest it has ever been for a new
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    free by clicking the link in the
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    description or scanning the QR code
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    that's on the screen all right now let's
  • 00:09:06
    get back to the topic at hand suddenly
  • 00:09:08
    Nations commanded arsenals that could
  • 00:09:10
    destroy the entire world in a matter of
  • 00:09:13
    minutes that kind of destructive
  • 00:09:15
    potential made the risks of an actual
  • 00:09:17
    shooting War incredibly dangerous blunt
  • 00:09:20
    force was off the table so instead the
  • 00:09:22
    US Tri a mix of carrots and sticks to
  • 00:09:24
    achieve its ultimate geopolitical
  • 00:09:26
    objective weakening the Soviet Union the
  • 00:09:29
    US's use of sanctions in the Cold War
  • 00:09:31
    reflected three popular use cases for
  • 00:09:33
    sanctions in general legislation like
  • 00:09:36
    the export Control Act was designed to
  • 00:09:38
    directly undermine the Soviet economy
  • 00:09:41
    sometimes like in the case of Cuba where
  • 00:09:42
    the Communist Guerilla Fidel Castro
  • 00:09:44
    overthrew the US backed regime sanctions
  • 00:09:47
    were used to destabilize Soviet allies
  • 00:09:49
    that were seen as threatening American
  • 00:09:51
    interests and other times like in the
  • 00:09:53
    case of the Eastern block countries like
  • 00:09:55
    Poland and Romania the United States
  • 00:09:57
    government imposed less stringent Aros
  • 00:09:59
    in the hopes of driving a wedge between
  • 00:10:01
    the Soviet Union and its allies at this
  • 00:10:04
    point you might be wondering why I'm
  • 00:10:05
    talking about the US here firstly when
  • 00:10:08
    it comes to sanctions the US is King no
  • 00:10:12
    other country has applied more sanctions
  • 00:10:14
    or applied them more often secondly
  • 00:10:16
    during the Cold War European nations
  • 00:10:18
    were much more reluctant to actually
  • 00:10:20
    apply sanctions on the Soviet Union
  • 00:10:22
    partially that's because Europe wasn't
  • 00:10:24
    as strongly anti-communist in terms of
  • 00:10:26
    its ideology but mostly it's because
  • 00:10:28
    Europe was was more dependent on the
  • 00:10:30
    Soviet Union economically which meant
  • 00:10:33
    that they were more vulnerable to
  • 00:10:34
    potential retribution this is an
  • 00:10:36
    important dichotomy that we will talk
  • 00:10:38
    about more later American aggression
  • 00:10:40
    European reluctance but for now let's
  • 00:10:43
    continue with the story the US imposed
  • 00:10:45
    sanctions on China North Korea and North
  • 00:10:47
    Vietnam to try and contain the spread of
  • 00:10:50
    Communism in Asia and a wide range of
  • 00:10:52
    sanctions against Latin American
  • 00:10:54
    countries to keep communism away from
  • 00:10:56
    its backyard the collapse of the Soviet
  • 00:10:58
    Union kicked off a huge debate about the
  • 00:11:00
    role played by sanctions unsurprisingly
  • 00:11:03
    former rean Administration officials
  • 00:11:05
    argued that sanctions drove the Soviet
  • 00:11:07
    Union to collapse academics on the other
  • 00:11:10
    hand they weren't so convinced today the
  • 00:11:13
    consensus is that while Western
  • 00:11:14
    sanctions did succeed in denying the
  • 00:11:16
    Soviets access to some arms and key
  • 00:11:19
    strategic Technologies the USSR
  • 00:11:22
    collapsed because its system rotted away
  • 00:11:24
    from the inside just like World War II
  • 00:11:27
    45 years earlier the end of the Cold War
  • 00:11:29
    ushered in a new era and A New Hope
  • 00:11:32
    about what sanctions could achieve with
  • 00:11:35
    the Soviet Union now a historical
  • 00:11:36
    footnote and the newly independent
  • 00:11:38
    Russian State enduring a series of
  • 00:11:40
    political and humanitarian crises no
  • 00:11:43
    country or ideology could match up to
  • 00:11:46
    the United States the US converted its
  • 00:11:48
    status as the Undisputed hegemon into a
  • 00:11:51
    massive peace dividend increased
  • 00:11:53
    economic growth and cuts to defense
  • 00:11:55
    spending allowed the US government to
  • 00:11:57
    actually pay off its debt
  • 00:11:59
    times were good it felt as though in the
  • 00:12:02
    words of the American political
  • 00:12:03
    scientist Francis fukayama the US was
  • 00:12:06
    experiencing the end of History us
  • 00:12:09
    leaders had no intention of getting
  • 00:12:10
    involved in an actual War but they could
  • 00:12:13
    also see that there were still many
  • 00:12:15
    security and humanitarian challenges
  • 00:12:17
    which required their attention leaders
  • 00:12:19
    were still committing atrocities against
  • 00:12:21
    other groups even against their own
  • 00:12:23
    people American leaders sensed an
  • 00:12:26
    opportunity to respond to those
  • 00:12:27
    situations and in the process make the
  • 00:12:30
    rest of the world look more like the US
  • 00:12:32
    Democratic developed and just as
  • 00:12:35
    importantly capitalist so despite being
  • 00:12:38
    in peacetime the United States started
  • 00:12:40
    leaning more heavily on the use of
  • 00:12:42
    sanctions as a foreign policy instrument
  • 00:12:45
    often in conjunction with multilateral
  • 00:12:47
    organizations like the United Nations
  • 00:12:48
    and the World Trade Organization us
  • 00:12:50
    leaders imposed sanctions on countries
  • 00:12:52
    that deemed Rogue states such as Iraq
  • 00:12:55
    Yugoslavia and Zimbabwe here we see
  • 00:12:58
    other players at work so I want to
  • 00:13:00
    quickly back up and talk about the role
  • 00:13:01
    of the United Nations because while the
  • 00:13:04
    US is the Undisputed leader when it
  • 00:13:06
    comes to sanctions the UN has also
  • 00:13:08
    played an important role in the story
  • 00:13:10
    and they're a key part of understanding
  • 00:13:12
    why it's been hard to nail down Russia
  • 00:13:14
    with effective sanctions since its
  • 00:13:16
    invasion of Ukraine since 1966 the UN
  • 00:13:20
    Security Council the body of the UN
  • 00:13:22
    tasked with maintaining International
  • 00:13:24
    Peace and security has established 31
  • 00:13:27
    sanction regimes against a number of
  • 00:13:29
    States and non-state actors countries
  • 00:13:32
    dictators and terrorists have all been
  • 00:13:34
    targeted but if you look through the
  • 00:13:36
    list of sanctioned targets there's one
  • 00:13:38
    country that's conspicuously absent the
  • 00:13:41
    UN Security Council never imposed
  • 00:13:43
    sanctions on the Soviet Union and it's
  • 00:13:45
    never imposed sanctions on Russia it's
  • 00:13:48
    because Russia just like the Soviet
  • 00:13:50
    Union before it is one of five permanent
  • 00:13:53
    members of the UN Security Council the
  • 00:13:56
    five permanent members of the security
  • 00:13:57
    Council were all allies in the second
  • 00:13:59
    war and they were the first five states
  • 00:14:02
    to acquire nuclear weapons each member
  • 00:14:05
    of the P5 as it's known has a veto which
  • 00:14:07
    can prevent the adoption of any
  • 00:14:08
    substantive draft Security Council
  • 00:14:11
    resolution regardless of how much
  • 00:14:12
    support it has from the other members so
  • 00:14:15
    it doesn't matter what Russia does its
  • 00:14:17
    veto power means that it will never face
  • 00:14:19
    the threat of un sanctions instead the
  • 00:14:22
    burden of responsibility has fallen to
  • 00:14:24
    individual states and other multilateral
  • 00:14:26
    entities like the European Union even
  • 00:14:29
    even though the 1990s were the Apex of
  • 00:14:31
    us power they also demonstrated some of
  • 00:14:33
    the inherent problems with sanctions
  • 00:14:36
    Iraq is a great example after Iraqi
  • 00:14:39
    dictator Saddam Hussein invaded the
  • 00:14:41
    neighboring country of Kuwait the UN
  • 00:14:43
    Security Council quickly imposed a
  • 00:14:45
    comprehensive trade embargo on Iraq the
  • 00:14:47
    sanctions totally devastated Iraq's
  • 00:14:50
    economy they cut the GDP in half but
  • 00:14:54
    they still failed to achieve their goal
  • 00:14:55
    compelling Hussein to withdraw from
  • 00:14:57
    Kuwait only the Gulf War could do that
  • 00:15:01
    after the war sanctions against Iraq
  • 00:15:03
    were eased but the humanitarian damage
  • 00:15:06
    had already been done infant mortality
  • 00:15:08
    rates skyrocketed and the country's per
  • 00:15:10
    capita income flatlined it was because
  • 00:15:13
    of sanctions like that as the 1990s
  • 00:15:15
    progressed the International Community
  • 00:15:17
    started asking questions about who
  • 00:15:19
    sanctions really affected they didn't
  • 00:15:23
    stop Saddam Hussein instead they hurt
  • 00:15:25
    the Iraqi people who didn't bear any
  • 00:15:27
    responsibility for The Invasion
  • 00:15:29
    in response policy makers began devising
  • 00:15:32
    more precisely targeted sanctions that
  • 00:15:35
    actually hit the leaders of sanctioned
  • 00:15:36
    countries where it hurt a few factors
  • 00:15:39
    made this concept feasible the main one
  • 00:15:41
    was the homogeny of the US dollar
  • 00:15:43
    because of its economic power and its
  • 00:15:45
    leading role in the construction of the
  • 00:15:47
    post World War II Financial system lots
  • 00:15:50
    of countries particularly unstable ones
  • 00:15:53
    were dependent on US dollars so
  • 00:15:56
    beginning in the late 1990s and
  • 00:15:58
    accelerating after 9/11 the US
  • 00:16:00
    government made it harder for banks and
  • 00:16:02
    other Financial transactions to supply
  • 00:16:04
    sanctioned governments organizations and
  • 00:16:07
    individuals with US Dollars those Banks
  • 00:16:10
    need US dollars to function so the mere
  • 00:16:13
    threat of being denied access to them
  • 00:16:15
    makes them highly reluctant to work with
  • 00:16:17
    sanctioned entities which effectively
  • 00:16:19
    locked those entities out of the Global
  • 00:16:21
    Financial system you might have thought
  • 00:16:24
    that the increased efficacy and potency
  • 00:16:26
    of smart sanctions would make the Us and
  • 00:16:28
    other Western Powers more reluctant to
  • 00:16:30
    use them quite the opposite in fact
  • 00:16:33
    sanctions quickly became the go-to
  • 00:16:35
    solution for almost every foreign policy
  • 00:16:38
    problem during Barack Obama's first term
  • 00:16:40
    as president the United States
  • 00:16:42
    designated an average of 500 entities
  • 00:16:44
    for sanctions per year for all sorts of
  • 00:16:47
    reasons ranging from Human Rights abuses
  • 00:16:50
    to nuclear proliferation to violations
  • 00:16:53
    of territorial sovereignty that number
  • 00:16:55
    already pretty high almost doubled over
  • 00:16:58
    the course of Donald Trump's presidency
  • 00:17:01
    in his first few months in office Joe
  • 00:17:02
    Biden imposed new sanctions on Myanmar
  • 00:17:05
    Nicaragua and Russia the later for
  • 00:17:07
    malicious cyber activities he also
  • 00:17:10
    directly sanctioned some Saudi Arabian
  • 00:17:12
    officials involved in the assassination
  • 00:17:14
    of dissident journalist Jamal cogi there
  • 00:17:17
    were some high profile wins in response
  • 00:17:20
    to a tightening of sanctions by the
  • 00:17:22
    Obama Administration Iran agreed to
  • 00:17:24
    restrict the development of its nuclear
  • 00:17:26
    program When Donald Trump threatened to
  • 00:17:28
    raise tariffs unless Mexico reduced the
  • 00:17:30
    flow of Central American migrants the
  • 00:17:33
    Mexican Government deployed the National
  • 00:17:34
    Guard to stop them but in general us
  • 00:17:37
    sanctions haven't been all that
  • 00:17:39
    successful for every success if you can
  • 00:17:42
    even call it that it felt like there
  • 00:17:44
    were at least two failures the US
  • 00:17:46
    imposed harsh sanctions for years on
  • 00:17:49
    countries like Cuba Syria Zimbabwe and
  • 00:17:51
    Belarus for very little return Donald
  • 00:17:54
    Trump's maximum pressure campaigns
  • 00:17:56
    against Iran North Korea and Venezuela
  • 00:17:58
    Vela may have paralyzed their economies
  • 00:18:02
    but they didn't yield any meaningful
  • 00:18:04
    concessions sustained sanctions against
  • 00:18:06
    other major Powers didn't change their
  • 00:18:08
    behavior and in some cases simply led to
  • 00:18:11
    escalation targets of us sanctions have
  • 00:18:14
    resisted they've adapted they've
  • 00:18:17
    retaliated but they haven't given in
  • 00:18:20
    despite that America's leaders and the
  • 00:18:22
    leaders of international organizations
  • 00:18:24
    have persisted and they've persisted
  • 00:18:27
    despite the presence of an uncomfort
  • 00:18:29
    truth one that's right at the heart of
  • 00:18:30
    the story The Reason sanctions have gone
  • 00:18:33
    from being just one of the tools at the
  • 00:18:35
    disposal of Western governments to
  • 00:18:37
    sometimes looking like they are the only
  • 00:18:39
    one is because of the relative decline
  • 00:18:41
    of Western power the International
  • 00:18:44
    System was bipolar during the Cold War
  • 00:18:47
    and unipolar in the immediate aftermath
  • 00:18:49
    of the Cold War today it's
  • 00:18:52
    multi-polar Russia China India and the
  • 00:18:56
    EU have all emerged as formidable geop
  • 00:18:58
    political actors economically
  • 00:19:01
    politically militarily the West is no
  • 00:19:04
    longer the only game in town Vladimir
  • 00:19:07
    Putin could see the tectonic plates of
  • 00:19:09
    the International System shifting he
  • 00:19:12
    knew Western leaders had no appetite for
  • 00:19:15
    actual war and that sanctions simply
  • 00:19:17
    weren't strong enough to dissuade highly
  • 00:19:19
    motivated great Powers even though the
  • 00:19:22
    International System looked relatively
  • 00:19:24
    calm a storm was coming Putin bited his
  • 00:19:28
    time prepared his economy and his
  • 00:19:31
    military and then when the time was
  • 00:19:34
    right he made his
  • 00:19:38
    [Music]
  • 00:19:40
    move Russia's invasion of Ukraine on
  • 00:19:43
    February 24th
  • 00:19:44
    20122 was a shocking moment but it
  • 00:19:47
    wasn't an unexpected one Russian and
  • 00:19:50
    Belarusian troops had been gathering at
  • 00:19:52
    Ukraine's Eastern and Northern borders
  • 00:19:54
    for weeks and the reality is that by
  • 00:19:57
    that point a war between Russia and
  • 00:19:59
    Ukraine had already been simmering for 8
  • 00:20:02
    years it all dated back to February 2014
  • 00:20:06
    and a revolution whose spark was lit
  • 00:20:09
    ironically by the threat of economic
  • 00:20:11
    pressure a miracle didn't happen and the
  • 00:20:14
    European union leaders and Ukraine have
  • 00:20:16
    as expected failed to sign an historic
  • 00:20:19
    free trade deal after a last minute
  • 00:20:20
    U-turn from keev Ukraine's president
  • 00:20:23
    Victor yanukovich still attended the
  • 00:20:25
    Eastern partnership Summit in vilnus but
  • 00:20:28
    under economic pressure from Moscow he
  • 00:20:30
    revived trade talks with Russia and
  • 00:20:33
    nothing the EU said could make him
  • 00:20:35
    change his mind Ukraine has always been
  • 00:20:38
    vital to Russian and Soviet interests it
  • 00:20:41
    contributed massive amounts of grain
  • 00:20:43
    coal and steel to the Soviet Union
  • 00:20:45
    Russian SARS spent their Summers on the
  • 00:20:47
    beaches of the Crimean Peninsula which
  • 00:20:50
    was also the location of a major Naval
  • 00:20:52
    Port even after the collapse of the
  • 00:20:54
    Soviet Union Ukraine's strategic value
  • 00:20:56
    as a country on the Black Sea would
  • 00:20:58
    which shared borders with numerous
  • 00:21:00
    future NATO members was immense one of
  • 00:21:03
    the core beliefs of Russian nationalism
  • 00:21:06
    is that Ukraine is actually a part of
  • 00:21:09
    Russia one of those Russian nationalists
  • 00:21:11
    is Vladimir Putin he believed Ukraine's
  • 00:21:15
    Independence was a massive blow to
  • 00:21:17
    Russian Prestige and power and an
  • 00:21:20
    historical error that needed to be
  • 00:21:21
    rectified before it came under Western
  • 00:21:24
    influence his opportunity came in 2010
  • 00:21:27
    with the election of Victor ovic as
  • 00:21:29
    Ukraine's president although he
  • 00:21:31
    initially tried to assure ukrainians
  • 00:21:34
    that he wanted the country to remain
  • 00:21:35
    neutral between Russia and the West
  • 00:21:38
    yanukovich quickly vowed to improve
  • 00:21:40
    relations with Russia even passing a
  • 00:21:43
    bill forbidding Ukraine's membership of
  • 00:21:45
    any military block but in 2013 Ukraine's
  • 00:21:48
    Parliament overwhelmingly approved a
  • 00:21:51
    free trade agreement with the European
  • 00:21:53
    Union it looked like closer ties with
  • 00:21:55
    the West were Within Reach but the then
  • 00:21:58
    just a week before the summit where the
  • 00:22:00
    agreement was supposed to be signed
  • 00:22:02
    Putin began dialing up the pressure by
  • 00:22:04
    restricting Ukrainian Imports the
  • 00:22:07
    pressure paid off yonov made a u-turn
  • 00:22:10
    instead of signing the agreement with
  • 00:22:12
    the EU he instead strengthened ties with
  • 00:22:15
    Russia most ukrainians were outraged
  • 00:22:18
    they realized that as long as their
  • 00:22:20
    government was taking orders from Russia
  • 00:22:22
    they could never be truly free and in
  • 00:22:24
    order to be free they needed a
  • 00:22:27
    revolution hundreds of thousands of
  • 00:22:29
    people took to the streets across
  • 00:22:31
    Ukraine keeves independence Square
  • 00:22:33
    became a massive protest site and when
  • 00:22:36
    Security Forces started firing killing
  • 00:22:38
    almost a hundred of them they didn't
  • 00:22:40
    stop and they won yanukovich fled the
  • 00:22:44
    country and soon resurfaced in Russia
  • 00:22:47
    the Ukrainian Parliament restored the
  • 00:22:49
    Constitution to its 2004 version and an
  • 00:22:52
    interim government signed the EU deal
  • 00:22:55
    the events of early 2014 became known in
  • 00:22:58
    Ukraine as the revolution of dignity but
  • 00:23:01
    even as Ukraine's future looked bright
  • 00:23:03
    storm clouds were gathering on the
  • 00:23:05
    horizon soldiers began appearing in the
  • 00:23:07
    southern Ukrainian province of Crimea
  • 00:23:10
    the soldiers had no identifying Insignia
  • 00:23:13
    they wore plain green uniforms and they
  • 00:23:15
    came to be known as The Little Green Men
  • 00:23:17
    some of them stormed crimea's Regional
  • 00:23:19
    Parliament they barricaded themselves
  • 00:23:21
    inside and they raiseed the Russian flag
  • 00:23:23
    over the building the next day more of
  • 00:23:25
    these green uniformed men seized Airport
  • 00:23:28
    in Crimea within a couple of weeks the
  • 00:23:31
    whole of Crimea was under the control of
  • 00:23:33
    these little green men for weeks Putin
  • 00:23:36
    denied the little green men were Russian
  • 00:23:39
    soldiers he claimed they were just local
  • 00:23:42
    militia but eventually even he had to
  • 00:23:44
    admit what everyone suspected that
  • 00:23:47
    operation eventually became a full
  • 00:23:49
    occupation and annexation of Crimea it
  • 00:23:52
    was the first time a European country
  • 00:23:54
    annexed territory belonging to another
  • 00:23:57
    European country in the 21st century and
  • 00:24:00
    it was just the beginning armed
  • 00:24:02
    pro-russian separatists in the province
  • 00:24:04
    of Donetsk and luhansk an area known as
  • 00:24:07
    the danbos soon declared independence
  • 00:24:09
    from Ukraine Russia was secretly
  • 00:24:12
    providing them with weapons and supplies
  • 00:24:14
    within a few months Ukraine had lost
  • 00:24:16
    control of the donos in February 2015
  • 00:24:20
    Russia and Ukraine signed a series of
  • 00:24:21
    agreements to end the conflict but they
  • 00:24:24
    were never fully implemented and instead
  • 00:24:27
    of stopping the fighting instead
  • 00:24:29
    congealed into a bloody trench war with
  • 00:24:32
    about 75,000 troops facing off along a
  • 00:24:35
    350m long Frontline it didn't take long
  • 00:24:38
    before Russia started building a major
  • 00:24:40
    military presence near its border with
  • 00:24:42
    Ukraine including within the state of
  • 00:24:45
    Belarus despite that Russian officials
  • 00:24:48
    most notably Putin himself repeatedly
  • 00:24:50
    denied any plans to attack Ukraine they
  • 00:24:54
    were lying on February 21st 2022 Russia
  • 00:24:58
    officially recognized the
  • 00:24:59
    self-proclaimed luhansk and donitz
  • 00:25:02
    people's republics one day later Putin
  • 00:25:05
    said that the mink agreements no longer
  • 00:25:08
    existed and that Ukraine was to blame
  • 00:25:11
    two days after that on the 24th he
  • 00:25:13
    announced the beginning of a special
  • 00:25:15
    military
  • 00:25:16
    operation I decided to conduct a special
  • 00:25:19
    military
  • 00:25:21
    operation its goal is the protection of
  • 00:25:23
    people who during eight years suffer
  • 00:25:25
    from abuse and genocide from the Kiev
  • 00:25:27
    regime
  • 00:25:29
    Russian soldiers spilled over the
  • 00:25:31
    Ukrainian border from three positions
  • 00:25:33
    from the north through Russia's client
  • 00:25:35
    State Belarus from the south through
  • 00:25:37
    Crimea and from the southeast through
  • 00:25:40
    the dunas that's the background to
  • 00:25:42
    Russia's invasion of Ukraine now that we
  • 00:25:45
    know that let's talk about the Western
  • 00:25:47
    response so today I'm announcing the
  • 00:25:49
    first trch of sanctions to impose cost
  • 00:25:52
    on Russia in response to their actions
  • 00:25:55
    yesterday we will present a package of
  • 00:25:57
    massive and targeted sanctions to
  • 00:25:59
    European leaders for approval with this
  • 00:26:02
    package we will Target strategic sectors
  • 00:26:05
    of the Russian economy by blocking their
  • 00:26:08
    access to Technologies and markets that
  • 00:26:11
    are key for Russia as I'm writing this
  • 00:26:14
    Russia is under more than 16,000 Western
  • 00:26:17
    sanctions targeting everything from Key
  • 00:26:20
    Industries and institutions to
  • 00:26:22
    high-profile individuals there are way
  • 00:26:25
    too many to list so here's their
  • 00:26:27
    greatest hits February 26 2022 the
  • 00:26:30
    United States banned selected Russian
  • 00:26:32
    Banks from the Swift Financial messaging
  • 00:26:34
    system and imposed restrictive measures
  • 00:26:36
    on Russia's Central Bank March 3rd 2022
  • 00:26:40
    the EU banned seven Russian Banks from
  • 00:26:42
    Swift March 28th 2022 the US banned the
  • 00:26:46
    import of Russian oil gas and other
  • 00:26:48
    Energy April 8th 2022 the EU banned the
  • 00:26:51
    import of Russian coal and other solid
  • 00:26:53
    fossil fuels as well as Banning Russian
  • 00:26:55
    vessels from EU ports March 31st 2022
  • 00:26:59
    the US imposed new sanctions targeting
  • 00:27:01
    Russia's technology sector and related
  • 00:27:04
    efforts to evade existing
  • 00:27:06
    sanctions December 3rd 2022 the EU and
  • 00:27:09
    the G7 agreed to cap the price of
  • 00:27:11
    Russian Seaborn crude oil at 60 us per
  • 00:27:15
    barrel May 19th 2023 the G7 agreed to
  • 00:27:19
    step up measures to counter the evasion
  • 00:27:21
    of price caps on Russian oil exports and
  • 00:27:23
    to prevent Russian Banks from evading
  • 00:27:25
    sanctions by using foreign subsidiaries
  • 00:27:28
    December 22nd 2023 a US executive order
  • 00:27:31
    authorized us sanctions on foreign
  • 00:27:33
    financial institutions found providing
  • 00:27:35
    services or facilitating major
  • 00:27:37
    transactions for Russia's
  • 00:27:39
    military-industrial Network there's a
  • 00:27:41
    pattern here the earlier sanctions took
  • 00:27:44
    big swings at Russia's Industries and
  • 00:27:46
    its financial sector but recently
  • 00:27:48
    they've aimed to cut down on Russia
  • 00:27:50
    sanctions evasion and punish entities
  • 00:27:53
    helping Russia evade sanctions broadly
  • 00:27:56
    speaking Western sanctions were designed
  • 00:27:57
    to isolate Russia from the Global
  • 00:27:59
    Financial system reduce the
  • 00:28:01
    profitability of its energy sector and
  • 00:28:03
    undermine its military capacity the
  • 00:28:06
    sanctions were expansive and
  • 00:28:08
    comprehensive they have had some effects
  • 00:28:11
    Russia's economy is smaller than it
  • 00:28:12
    would have been without them but
  • 00:28:14
    ultimately they have not made waging the
  • 00:28:16
    war sufficiently costly for Russia to
  • 00:28:19
    stop waging it in that sense the most
  • 00:28:22
    important sense they have failed but how
  • 00:28:25
    come
  • 00:28:26
    [Music]
  • 00:28:29
    before I explain why Russia specifically
  • 00:28:32
    has Shrugged off sanctions I want to
  • 00:28:33
    quickly discuss some of the inherent
  • 00:28:35
    flaws with sanctions Western sanctions
  • 00:28:38
    in particular you might have noticed
  • 00:28:40
    some of them when I was discussing how
  • 00:28:41
    they've been used in history but it's
  • 00:28:44
    worth listing them all the first big
  • 00:28:46
    issue with Western sanctions is that
  • 00:28:47
    they often come with unrealistic demands
  • 00:28:51
    even before Russia invaded Ukraine
  • 00:28:53
    sanctions imposed by the us or European
  • 00:28:56
    Union have often come with demands that
  • 00:28:58
    are tantamount to wholesale regime
  • 00:29:00
    change it's no surprise that
  • 00:29:02
    authoritarian leaders prefer to endure
  • 00:29:05
    the pain rather than giving up power the
  • 00:29:08
    second issue with Western sanctions is
  • 00:29:10
    that if the leaders of targeted
  • 00:29:12
    countries don't think they can ever be
  • 00:29:14
    lifted there's no incentive to change
  • 00:29:17
    Behavior what's the point of complying
  • 00:29:19
    with Western demands if there's no
  • 00:29:20
    chance of getting a reward the third
  • 00:29:23
    issue is that sanctions need to be
  • 00:29:24
    imposed by broad coalitions if they
  • 00:29:27
    aren't then the target country
  • 00:29:29
    especially if they're a great power can
  • 00:29:31
    find enough countries that are still
  • 00:29:32
    willing to do business with them the
  • 00:29:35
    final major issue with Western sanctions
  • 00:29:37
    is that they're weak against Great
  • 00:29:39
    Powers countries like China Russia and
  • 00:29:42
    India are big enough to adapt and their
  • 00:29:44
    leaders don't want to suffer the
  • 00:29:46
    prestige loss that comes with making
  • 00:29:47
    concessions to the West all right now
  • 00:29:50
    we're finally ready to look at the three
  • 00:29:52
    reasons why Russia specifically has been
  • 00:29:54
    so good at neutralizing the impact of
  • 00:29:57
    Western sanctions
  • 00:29:58
    the first reason is the dependence gap
  • 00:30:01
    for years dating back to well before the
  • 00:30:03
    special military operation Russia's
  • 00:30:06
    leaders have embarked on a two-fold
  • 00:30:08
    strategy Independence for Russia and
  • 00:30:10
    dependence for the West they've achieved
  • 00:30:13
    this by doubling down on Russia's
  • 00:30:15
    natural economic advantages while also
  • 00:30:17
    using diplomacy to sanction proof their
  • 00:30:20
    economy there's no better example of the
  • 00:30:22
    dependence Gap than energy Russia is a
  • 00:30:26
    big player in the world's energy Market
  • 00:30:28
    it's a top three crude oil producer and
  • 00:30:31
    the world's largest exporter of natural
  • 00:30:33
    gas before the invasion of Ukraine a
  • 00:30:36
    huge amount of those fuels flowed
  • 00:30:38
    through pipelines straight to the
  • 00:30:39
    European Union in 2021 the year before
  • 00:30:42
    the invasion 45% of the natural gas
  • 00:30:45
    imported by the EU the equivalent of 60
  • 00:30:48
    million olympic size swimming pools came
  • 00:30:51
    from Russia so it's no surprise that oil
  • 00:30:54
    and gas revenues made up almost half of
  • 00:30:56
    Russia's federal budget windfall energy
  • 00:30:59
    export earnings allow Russian leaders to
  • 00:31:01
    bank hundreds of billions of dollars in
  • 00:31:03
    foreign currency Reserves at the time of
  • 00:31:06
    the invasion Russia had managed to hoard
  • 00:31:09
    $643 billion about a quarter of its GDP
  • 00:31:13
    in Central Bank Reserves as far as we
  • 00:31:16
    know it about 32% of those reserves were
  • 00:31:18
    held in Euros half of that about 16% was
  • 00:31:21
    denominated in US Dollars another 13%
  • 00:31:24
    was Yuan the rest was either mostly gold
  • 00:31:27
    or government government bonds after
  • 00:31:29
    Russia invaded Ukraine European leaders
  • 00:31:32
    aimed to deprive the Kremlin of the
  • 00:31:33
    money it needed to finance the war
  • 00:31:35
    effort by severing their energy
  • 00:31:37
    relationship with Russia but at least in
  • 00:31:40
    the short term the uncertainty created
  • 00:31:42
    by Russia's Invasion and the West
  • 00:31:44
    response worked in Russia's favor by
  • 00:31:47
    pushing up the price of the exact same
  • 00:31:49
    oil and gas that they depended on
  • 00:31:52
    therefore Western leaders had to strike
  • 00:31:54
    a really delicate balance deprive Russia
  • 00:31:56
    of its energy revenues without spooking
  • 00:31:58
    Global markets the easiest way to do the
  • 00:32:01
    first thing was to Simply ban the import
  • 00:32:03
    of oil and gas from Russia but not only
  • 00:32:06
    did that risk upsetting the markets but
  • 00:32:07
    it also meant suffering political costs
  • 00:32:10
    European leaders knew that if they cut
  • 00:32:12
    off supplies of Russian energy lots of
  • 00:32:14
    their own citizens would be cold and
  • 00:32:17
    angry Europe's most powerful country
  • 00:32:19
    Germany was a big part of the problem
  • 00:32:22
    for years Germany's relations with
  • 00:32:24
    Russia were based on the principle of
  • 00:32:25
    change through trade the idea that
  • 00:32:28
    increasing economic trade with
  • 00:32:29
    authoritarian countries could improve
  • 00:32:32
    diplomatic relations and eventually
  • 00:32:34
    create domestic political change before
  • 00:32:37
    The Invasion Germany was importing 55%
  • 00:32:40
    of its natural gas from Russia mostly
  • 00:32:42
    through the nordstream pipelines that
  • 00:32:45
    strategy was eagerly encouraged by
  • 00:32:47
    Vladimir Putin who wanted European
  • 00:32:49
    countries to deepen their dependence on
  • 00:32:51
    Russia change through trade failed the
  • 00:32:55
    moment Russian soldiers invaded Ukraine
  • 00:32:57
    in truth it probably failed the moment
  • 00:32:59
    that the little green men started
  • 00:33:00
    stirring up trouble in Donas but Germany
  • 00:33:02
    wasn't the only problem one of the
  • 00:33:04
    biggest thorns in the side of European
  • 00:33:06
    leaders was hungary's long- serving
  • 00:33:08
    prime minister Victor Orban Orban is
  • 00:33:12
    Vladimir Putin's best friend in Europe
  • 00:33:15
    the two men have a lot in common
  • 00:33:16
    politically and as a result Orban has
  • 00:33:18
    always pursued close relations with
  • 00:33:20
    Moscow Hungary is massively dependent on
  • 00:33:24
    Russia it gets about 80% of its natural
  • 00:33:26
    gas from there but why does one small
  • 00:33:29
    country's close ties with Russia matter
  • 00:33:32
    they matter because in order to adopt
  • 00:33:34
    new laws or regulations the EU needs the
  • 00:33:37
    unanimous supportive members of the
  • 00:33:39
    European Council its main executive body
  • 00:33:42
    Hungary is a European council member and
  • 00:33:45
    just like every other member it has veto
  • 00:33:47
    power Vladimir Putin knew this from the
  • 00:33:49
    very beginning and that's why he took
  • 00:33:51
    every opportunity to build a friendly
  • 00:33:53
    relationship with orbon Hungary got
  • 00:33:57
    energy and Russia got a friend that it
  • 00:33:59
    could count on in difficult moments a
  • 00:34:02
    few months after the War Began the
  • 00:34:04
    European Council unveiled a plan to ban
  • 00:34:06
    all Russian oil from European markets by
  • 00:34:08
    the end of 2022 but several countries
  • 00:34:11
    including Hungary objected eventually a
  • 00:34:14
    last minute compromise meant to the EU
  • 00:34:16
    embargo excluded Russian oil which came
  • 00:34:18
    from pipelines the compromises made the
  • 00:34:21
    Embargo weaker but Western leaders
  • 00:34:24
    weren't deterred in their efforts to
  • 00:34:25
    remove Russia's major Revenue source in
  • 00:34:28
    September of 2022 the G7 group of
  • 00:34:30
    Nations along with Australia agreed to
  • 00:34:32
    introduce a price cap on Russian oil
  • 00:34:34
    exports under the price cap the sale of
  • 00:34:36
    any Russian oil which involved companies
  • 00:34:38
    based in the Coalition countries had to
  • 00:34:40
    be sold for under
  • 00:34:42
    $60 the logic was that Russian oil
  • 00:34:44
    refineries were dependent there's that
  • 00:34:47
    word again on those EU based companies
  • 00:34:49
    for things like shipping insurance
  • 00:34:51
    brokering and other Support Services as
  • 00:34:53
    a result Russia would need to accept
  • 00:34:55
    lower prices for their crude oil and
  • 00:34:56
    other petroleum product products for a
  • 00:34:59
    while the combined effect of the Embargo
  • 00:35:00
    and price cap worked Russia's economy
  • 00:35:03
    shrank by more than 2% in 2022 but it
  • 00:35:06
    didn't take long for the Kremlin to find
  • 00:35:08
    ways around the price cap such as the
  • 00:35:11
    shadow Fleet using a network of shell
  • 00:35:13
    companies in middlemen Russian energy
  • 00:35:16
    firms have bought or leased hundreds of
  • 00:35:18
    rusty old tankers bought insurance from
  • 00:35:21
    Russian companies and then set them
  • 00:35:22
    loose on the Seas at one point the
  • 00:35:25
    shadow fleet was moving as much as 20%
  • 00:35:27
    of the global oil trade and propping up
  • 00:35:30
    Russia's finances but how the answer is
  • 00:35:34
    the second major reason why Western
  • 00:35:36
    sanctions haven't stopped Russia China
  • 00:35:38
    and Russia announced a new partnership
  • 00:35:40
    with China saying it'll back Russia's
  • 00:35:42
    foreign policy aim and saying it
  • 00:35:45
    supports Russian demands that NATO halt
  • 00:35:47
    its expansion that is seen as an
  • 00:35:49
    implicit reference to the situation in
  • 00:35:51
    Ukraine we begin with two presidents who
  • 00:35:55
    want the world to know that they are on
  • 00:35:57
    the same page today the leaders of China
  • 00:36:00
    and Russia promised each other deeper
  • 00:36:02
    ties with quote No Limits globalization
  • 00:36:05
    has been an economic and humanitarian
  • 00:36:07
    miracle that enabled people to attain
  • 00:36:10
    higher standards of living but it's also
  • 00:36:12
    the same mechanism that enabled Russia
  • 00:36:14
    to sidestep Western sanctions let's
  • 00:36:16
    start with the most important fact
  • 00:36:18
    globalization has shifted the balance of
  • 00:36:20
    economic power away from the west and
  • 00:36:23
    towards the east in the year 2000 the G7
  • 00:36:26
    group of countries the US UK Japan
  • 00:36:29
    Germany Italy France and Canada made up
  • 00:36:32
    43.5% of global GDP by 2023 that share
  • 00:36:37
    had fallen to
  • 00:36:39
    29.9% over the same stretch of time
  • 00:36:42
    China's share of global GDP has gone
  • 00:36:44
    from less than 5% in 2000 to almost 20%
  • 00:36:49
    today while India's has grown to
  • 00:36:52
    comprise almost
  • 00:36:53
    10% that incredible growth has been
  • 00:36:56
    underpinned by the liberalist ation in
  • 00:36:58
    trade in goods and services and it was
  • 00:37:01
    also underpinned or so Western leaders
  • 00:37:03
    believed by a fundamental assumption
  • 00:37:06
    their assumption was that as people in
  • 00:37:08
    non-western countries experienced more
  • 00:37:10
    economic freedom they would demand and
  • 00:37:12
    obtain greater political freedoms
  • 00:37:15
    unfortunately that turned out to be
  • 00:37:16
    almost completely wrong in some respects
  • 00:37:19
    the rest of the world has become more
  • 00:37:21
    Western people wear Nikes and eat
  • 00:37:23
    McDonald's pretty much everywhere but
  • 00:37:25
    soft power hasn't translated to
  • 00:37:28
    democratic reforms China is the best
  • 00:37:31
    example instead of becoming more liberal
  • 00:37:33
    it's actually become more authoritarian
  • 00:37:36
    leaders like dong shaing use the wealth
  • 00:37:39
    generated by China's entry into the
  • 00:37:41
    global economy to reassert the country's
  • 00:37:44
    power and Prestige following the ruin of
  • 00:37:46
    the Mao years president Xi Jinping has
  • 00:37:49
    Consolidated his power and strengthened
  • 00:37:51
    the Communist party's grip on all areas
  • 00:37:54
    of society and the economy and far from
  • 00:37:57
    peacefully coexisting in the
  • 00:37:58
    International System alongside the West
  • 00:38:01
    he's been determined to displace the
  • 00:38:03
    west and the United States in particular
  • 00:38:05
    as the world's major power China and the
  • 00:38:08
    US compete across almost every sphere
  • 00:38:11
    economically militarily technologically
  • 00:38:14
    and diplomatically China uses diplomacy
  • 00:38:17
    as a way of cultivating allies punishing
  • 00:38:20
    enemies and supporting Nations that
  • 00:38:22
    fight proxy conflicts with the West so
  • 00:38:25
    when xiin ping looks at Vladimir Putin
  • 00:38:27
    he doesn't see the same person as most
  • 00:38:29
    of us do he sees a vital strategic Ally
  • 00:38:34
    the two men have built a close strategic
  • 00:38:36
    Alliance based on Mutual interests XI
  • 00:38:39
    likes Putin because he aggressively
  • 00:38:41
    tries to weaken the west by any means
  • 00:38:43
    necessary such as by annexing foreign
  • 00:38:46
    territory conducting disinformation
  • 00:38:48
    campaigns and funding populist political
  • 00:38:51
    parties Putin likes X because he openly
  • 00:38:54
    challenges Western dominance and he's
  • 00:38:56
    opened the Chinese market for Russian
  • 00:38:58
    goods and commodities which gives Russia
  • 00:39:00
    the money to maintain their
  • 00:39:02
    destabilization activities so it's no
  • 00:39:05
    surprise that when Western leaders
  • 00:39:06
    tightened restrictions on the import of
  • 00:39:08
    Russian oil and natural gas X welcomed
  • 00:39:12
    them in 20123 China imported 24% more
  • 00:39:16
    Russian crude oil than in
  • 00:39:18
    2022 enough to help Russia displace
  • 00:39:20
    Saudi Arabia as China's largest crude
  • 00:39:23
    oil supplier for the year the deepening
  • 00:39:26
    relationship between the two countries
  • 00:39:27
    goes well beyond energy Beijing has
  • 00:39:30
    stepped in to supply Moscow with
  • 00:39:32
    semiconductors and other critical
  • 00:39:34
    Technologies with military
  • 00:39:36
    applications overall trade between China
  • 00:39:38
    and Russia went up by even more 26% from
  • 00:39:42
    2022 and 90% of that trade is now
  • 00:39:45
    conducted in Russian rubles and Chinese
  • 00:39:47
    Yuan compared to just 25% before The
  • 00:39:50
    Invasion and another words xiin ping
  • 00:39:52
    isn't just funding Russia's War Machine
  • 00:39:55
    he's helping to transform Russia's
  • 00:39:57
    economy so it'll never be dependent on
  • 00:39:59
    the west ever again it's not just China
  • 00:40:02
    either India has also massively
  • 00:40:05
    increased its Imports of Russian energy
  • 00:40:08
    during the 2023 24 fiscal year India
  • 00:40:11
    imported an average of 1.64 million
  • 00:40:14
    barrels of Russian oil per day a 57%
  • 00:40:18
    increase from the previous year India
  • 00:40:20
    and China aren't doing Russia a favor
  • 00:40:23
    out of the kindness of their hearts
  • 00:40:25
    being shut out of Western markets has
  • 00:40:27
    forced Russia to sell its oil at a
  • 00:40:29
    discount but finding new buyers has
  • 00:40:32
    helped the Kremlin offset most of the
  • 00:40:34
    damage of Western sanctions while at the
  • 00:40:36
    same time strengthening ties with
  • 00:40:38
    important Partners but there's one more
  • 00:40:40
    component of the globalization Gap I
  • 00:40:42
    want to talk about a year after the
  • 00:40:44
    invasion began the UN General Assembly
  • 00:40:47
    introduced a resolution condemning
  • 00:40:49
    Russia and calling for a comprehensive
  • 00:40:52
    just and Lasting peace in
  • 00:40:55
    Ukraine 141 countries voted in favor
  • 00:40:58
    seven countries including Russia itself
  • 00:41:01
    voted against but 32 countries including
  • 00:41:04
    China and India
  • 00:41:06
    abstained in a world where the economic
  • 00:41:08
    power of the West is in Decline
  • 00:41:10
    sanctions need to be a collective
  • 00:41:12
    Endeavor to be truly effective the fact
  • 00:41:15
    that there are so many countries which
  • 00:41:17
    haven't joined the effort weakens their
  • 00:41:19
    power it goes well beyond China and
  • 00:41:21
    India middle eastern states Latin
  • 00:41:24
    American countries and African nations
  • 00:41:26
    have all Contin to trade with Russia the
  • 00:41:29
    brutal reality is that a lot of world
  • 00:41:31
    leaders just don't care much about
  • 00:41:33
    Ukraine at least not enough to endanger
  • 00:41:35
    their trading relationship with Russia
  • 00:41:38
    some want to be a thorn in the side of
  • 00:41:40
    the West major enforcement gaps remain
  • 00:41:44
    if a sanctions regime has holes
  • 00:41:46
    sufficiently motivated countries will
  • 00:41:48
    find them globalization and the economic
  • 00:41:51
    interdependence it created gave rise to
  • 00:41:53
    the world where Western sanctions were
  • 00:41:55
    powerful but over time time it has
  • 00:41:57
    critically weakened the foundation of
  • 00:41:59
    sanctions at the beginning of the war
  • 00:42:01
    the international monetary fund forecast
  • 00:42:03
    that the Russian economy would shrink
  • 00:42:06
    yet in 2023 it actually grew by
  • 00:42:09
    2.2% more than many Western Nations the
  • 00:42:13
    globalization gap which allowed Russia
  • 00:42:15
    to divert its trade to countries which
  • 00:42:17
    didn't participate in the sanctions
  • 00:42:18
    campaigns was a big reason why but there
  • 00:42:21
    was still one other reason Western
  • 00:42:23
    sanctions haven't had the desired effect
  • 00:42:25
    on Russia because of the deter mination
  • 00:42:27
    of one man Vladimir Putin earlier in the
  • 00:42:31
    video I spoke about how one of the
  • 00:42:33
    founding principles of Russian
  • 00:42:34
    nationalism is the belief that Ukraine
  • 00:42:37
    isn't a separate nation Vladimir Putin
  • 00:42:39
    believes that so strongly that he
  • 00:42:41
    published an entire essay about it in
  • 00:42:44
    2021 that essay served two purposes
  • 00:42:47
    firstly it was propaganda for a domestic
  • 00:42:49
    audience and secondly it was a warning
  • 00:42:51
    to the West this wasn't just business
  • 00:42:55
    this was personal and nothing was going
  • 00:42:58
    to stop him the determination Gap refers
  • 00:43:01
    to the fact that there's a gap between
  • 00:43:03
    the lengths Putin will go to in order to
  • 00:43:04
    achieve his goals and the lengths that
  • 00:43:07
    the West will go to to achieve theirs he
  • 00:43:09
    was incredibly committed to fighting
  • 00:43:12
    this war as I'm writing this it's
  • 00:43:14
    believed that around 150,000 Russian
  • 00:43:16
    soldiers have been killed in the war
  • 00:43:18
    with another 350,000 injured and yet
  • 00:43:21
    there are no signs of the War ending
  • 00:43:24
    let's look at the rest of the evidence
  • 00:43:26
    for the determination Gap appap exhibit
  • 00:43:28
    a is simple Russia invaded Ukraine right
  • 00:43:31
    until Vladimir Putin did it people
  • 00:43:33
    didn't think it was possible incredibly
  • 00:43:35
    us intelligence were able to obtain
  • 00:43:37
    highly detailed Invasion plans but us
  • 00:43:40
    allies including Vladimir zalinski were
  • 00:43:43
    reluctant to believe them they were
  • 00:43:45
    laboring under the assumption that
  • 00:43:46
    millions of other people were that
  • 00:43:48
    outside of the Balkans war in Europe was
  • 00:43:51
    a thing of the past exhibit B Putin
  • 00:43:54
    sanction proofed Russia's economy and
  • 00:43:56
    laid the groundwork by building
  • 00:43:58
    relationships with the countries that
  • 00:43:59
    would help offset the effects of
  • 00:44:01
    sanctions I've already talked about this
  • 00:44:03
    at length so I won't repeat myself
  • 00:44:05
    Exhibit C the Russian economy is now
  • 00:44:07
    entirely geared towards fighting the war
  • 00:44:10
    this one's really important I've already
  • 00:44:12
    spoken about Russia's response to the
  • 00:44:14
    initial sanctions which targeted its
  • 00:44:16
    financial and energy sectors and I've
  • 00:44:18
    discussed the massive diversion of trade
  • 00:44:20
    especially in vital Commodities like
  • 00:44:22
    energy to countries that aren't
  • 00:44:24
    participating in the sanctions and
  • 00:44:25
    frankly don't care about Ukraine those
  • 00:44:28
    are external but this is about what
  • 00:44:31
    happened to Russia's domestic economy
  • 00:44:34
    over the course of the war Russian
  • 00:44:35
    leaders have systematically deprived
  • 00:44:37
    civilian sectors of the economy and
  • 00:44:39
    instead funnel them into military
  • 00:44:41
    production ammunition artillery tanks
  • 00:44:45
    planes drones military pay and
  • 00:44:47
    compensation for the dead and wounded
  • 00:44:49
    soldiers they the reason that the
  • 00:44:51
    Russian economy defied expectations and
  • 00:44:54
    recorded positive GDP growth in 2023
  • 00:44:58
    spending on health and education has
  • 00:45:00
    been cut there are massive shortages of
  • 00:45:02
    factory workers private consumption has
  • 00:45:05
    decreased by more than a third relative
  • 00:45:07
    to pre-war levels infrastructure is
  • 00:45:10
    crumbling but simply the war in Ukraine
  • 00:45:12
    is now the main driver of Russia's
  • 00:45:14
    economic growth according to the
  • 00:45:16
    historian Nicholas Moulder the Russian
  • 00:45:18
    government is spending at least 4.5% of
  • 00:45:21
    its GDP on the military and if you
  • 00:45:23
    include expenditures and other parts of
  • 00:45:25
    the budget it might be as much as six or
  • 00:45:28
    even 7% That's more than almost every
  • 00:45:31
    other country in the world as a
  • 00:45:33
    comparison members of the NAT military
  • 00:45:35
    Alliance have pledged to spend at least
  • 00:45:37
    2% of their GDP on their
  • 00:45:39
    militaries thanks to the money it had
  • 00:45:41
    from oil and gas Russia had low levels
  • 00:45:44
    of governmental debt before the war
  • 00:45:46
    started but right now the government is
  • 00:45:48
    running massive deficits to fund the war
  • 00:45:50
    effort shells bullets and tanks Help win
  • 00:45:53
    a war but they don't help regular people
  • 00:45:57
    that brings me to exhibit D Russia has
  • 00:45:59
    already incurred massive costs in terms
  • 00:46:01
    of blood and treasure according to the
  • 00:46:04
    BBC more than 50,000 Russian soldiers
  • 00:46:07
    have been killed since the War Began and
  • 00:46:10
    that's probably an underestimate
  • 00:46:12
    Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate that the
  • 00:46:14
    Russian military has suffered more than
  • 00:46:16
    450,000 casualties in the war including
  • 00:46:19
    death and injuries while us intelligence
  • 00:46:22
    Services say that Russian casualties top
  • 00:46:25
    300,000 according to to most estimates
  • 00:46:28
    every day of the war in Ukraine costs
  • 00:46:30
    Russia 500 million to $1
  • 00:46:34
    billion and here's the thing Putin
  • 00:46:37
    doesn't care to him it's all collateral
  • 00:46:40
    damage in a democracy when you don't
  • 00:46:43
    like what your leaders are doing you
  • 00:46:44
    have two options you can leave or you
  • 00:46:47
    can vote them out Russians are leaving
  • 00:46:50
    but they can't vote out Vladimir Putin
  • 00:46:53
    he's not subject to normal Democratic
  • 00:46:55
    constraints like the media the court or
  • 00:46:57
    the legislature and the more
  • 00:46:59
    conscientious Russians that leave the
  • 00:47:01
    country the stronger his grip on power
  • 00:47:03
    becomes there's one more component to
  • 00:47:06
    the determination Gap exhibit e the West
  • 00:47:10
    is nervous specifically it's nervous
  • 00:47:12
    about the domestic political cost of
  • 00:47:14
    continuing to support Ukraine a clear
  • 00:47:17
    majority of both Europeans and Americans
  • 00:47:19
    still support Aid to Ukraine but those
  • 00:47:22
    majorities aren't as clear as they used
  • 00:47:24
    to be when war broke out almost 8 80% of
  • 00:47:27
    Americans supported sending economic and
  • 00:47:29
    Military Support to Ukraine 2 years
  • 00:47:32
    later those numbers have gone down to
  • 00:47:34
    58% meanwhile 55% of EU citizens still
  • 00:47:38
    support sending weapons to Ukraine but
  • 00:47:40
    that's down from where it was Western
  • 00:47:43
    political leaders suddenly have to
  • 00:47:45
    answer to voters who are asking why
  • 00:47:47
    money is going to Ukraine instead of
  • 00:47:49
    them especially during a cost of living
  • 00:47:52
    crisis that tension itself motivates
  • 00:47:54
    Putin to drag out the war because he
  • 00:47:57
    knows that Ukraine's ability to continue
  • 00:47:58
    fighting is predicated on the
  • 00:48:00
    continuation of Western support so there
  • 00:48:03
    you have it the dependence Gap the
  • 00:48:05
    globalization Gap and the determination
  • 00:48:08
    Gap the three major reasons why Russia
  • 00:48:10
    has managed to avoid the worst impacts
  • 00:48:13
    of Western
  • 00:48:18
    sanctions okay so now we know why Russia
  • 00:48:21
    has been so effective at negating the
  • 00:48:23
    impact of Western sanctions and
  • 00:48:25
    continuing the war against Ukraine
  • 00:48:27
    but what does the future have in store
  • 00:48:29
    like I said earlier Russia has slowly
  • 00:48:31
    but surely gained the upper hand in the
  • 00:48:33
    war it has diverted its trade and
  • 00:48:36
    sacrificed its civilian economy to keep
  • 00:48:38
    the war machine grinding on while at the
  • 00:48:41
    same time Ukraine's capacity to defend
  • 00:48:43
    itself and receive support from Western
  • 00:48:45
    Nations appears to be waning so there
  • 00:48:47
    are two key questions if Russia's
  • 00:48:50
    military overwhelms the Ukrainian
  • 00:48:52
    military what will Putin do and what
  • 00:48:55
    will be the long-term cost of the war to
  • 00:48:58
    Russia the answers are interrelated
  • 00:49:01
    Vladimir Putin believes that Ukraine is
  • 00:49:03
    rightfully part of Russia that would
  • 00:49:05
    logically suggest that he might push for
  • 00:49:07
    a full or at least a partial annexation
  • 00:49:10
    but ask anyone involved with the US
  • 00:49:12
    invasion of Iraq in 2003 and they'll
  • 00:49:14
    tell you defeating an army is very very
  • 00:49:17
    different to occupying a country the
  • 00:49:21
    military Victory is the easy part
  • 00:49:23
    actually pacifying a hostile local
  • 00:49:26
    population ensuring security and taking
  • 00:49:28
    over the institutions of the state
  • 00:49:31
    that's the hard part takes a lot of men
  • 00:49:33
    and a lot of money and Russia is running
  • 00:49:36
    low on both this brings me to the second
  • 00:49:39
    part of the equation right now the
  • 00:49:42
    Russian economy is only growing because
  • 00:49:44
    it's fully focused on Military
  • 00:49:45
    production but go beyond the surface and
  • 00:49:48
    there are really big problems according
  • 00:49:51
    to estimates as many as 1 million
  • 00:49:53
    Russians have left the country since the
  • 00:49:55
    war started and they're not just average
  • 00:49:57
    people either the people leaving tend to
  • 00:49:59
    be young educated professionals they
  • 00:50:02
    include more than 50,000 it Specialists
  • 00:50:05
    and software Engineers no wonder some
  • 00:50:07
    economists have called The Exodus the
  • 00:50:09
    biggest brain drain since the end of the
  • 00:50:11
    Soviet Union a decline in the labor
  • 00:50:14
    force of that magnitude along with the
  • 00:50:16
    fact that Russia's actions have made it
  • 00:50:17
    an international Pariah that has lost a
  • 00:50:20
    significant amount of economic leverage
  • 00:50:22
    will decrease the country's long-term
  • 00:50:24
    economic and therefore military
  • 00:50:27
    potential don't be surprised if Russia
  • 00:50:29
    becomes a junior partner in an unequal
  • 00:50:31
    relationship with China that's the
  • 00:50:34
    positive view from a western perspective
  • 00:50:37
    the negative view is that Putin is
  • 00:50:39
    showing other authoritarian leaders that
  • 00:50:41
    if you have a strong enough grip on
  • 00:50:43
    power you can adapt to life under
  • 00:50:45
    sanctions Ukraine is overflowing with
  • 00:50:48
    trillions of dollars worth of lithium
  • 00:50:51
    titanium iron ore coal and wheat if
  • 00:50:54
    Russia conquers it or at least annexes
  • 00:50:56
    is a significant part of its territory
  • 00:50:58
    it will be able to use those resources
  • 00:51:00
    to rebuild its economy and Ukraine also
  • 00:51:03
    offers Russian nationalist something
  • 00:51:05
    which money just can't buy Prestige and
  • 00:51:09
    pride Vladimir Putin has made it his
  • 00:51:11
    life's work to reassert Russia as a
  • 00:51:14
    great power on the world stage for
  • 00:51:16
    Russia to be a great power it needs
  • 00:51:19
    Ukraine he doesn't care what it costs
  • 00:51:21
    and he won't stop I don't know what the
  • 00:51:24
    future holds for Ukraine or for Russia
  • 00:51:27
    but one thing is certain Russia has
  • 00:51:29
    persevered for longer than almost anyone
  • 00:51:31
    in the west expected from our
  • 00:51:34
    perspective here in the west Russia
  • 00:51:36
    cannot win the war but from Russia's
  • 00:51:38
    perspective it simply
  • 00:51:41
    cannot lose
الوسوم
  • Russia
  • Ukraine
  • Sanctions
  • Globalization
  • Economy
  • Vladimir Putin
  • Geopolitical
  • Western sanctions
  • Military production
  • Energy trade