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welcome back to yet another tropical
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weather outlook and discussion this is
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atmospheric Alex here on September 9th
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2024 in this update we'll be taking a
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look at tropical storm or potentially
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even hurricane
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Francine as it moves off to the north
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towards the gulf Coastline on Wednesday
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afternoon so let's take a pretty good
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look here at the National Hurricane
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Center cone of uncertainty and as you
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can see we are expecting additional
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strengthen of
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Francine as it moves off to the
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Northeast here we're seeing this thing
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potentially becoming a hurricane by
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tonight we'll just have to wait and see
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but early Trends do suggest that this
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could be happening a lot faster and some
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models have suggested this supposed to
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speed up significantly on approach to
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Louisiana here where we do in fact have
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hurricane watches and even some
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hurricane warnings here in your pinks
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and in your Reds there so we can't
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expect hurricane conditions and even
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outside of that a little bit we have
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tropical storm warnings and tropical
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storm watches here in the yellows so
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definitely quite a large system this
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will become in the next couple of days
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and I know you all looking at this map a
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little closer and are saying well are we
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going to be okay you know in the
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Mississippi Valley Ohio Valley Midwest
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yeah you'll be fine at minimum I at
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maximum I'd expect some Gusty winds and
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some rain that's about it though so you
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have nothing to worry
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about now let's take a very close look
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at Francine with our key messages here
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once again from the National Hurricane
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Center so what do we know so far with
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this system you know what what
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importance can we draw from this well
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Francine is expected to become a
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hurricane all
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right so I guess that doesn't
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work right well Francine is expected to
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become a what is happening with
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my so Francine is expected to become a
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hurricane when it reaches the Coast of
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Louisiana on Wednesday so we're talking
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probably around 1: to 4: in the
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afternoon when that happens and there is
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a danger of life threatening storm surge
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for portions of upper Texas and
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Louisiana coastlines where a storm surge
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warning is now in effect okay so please
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keep that in mind and of course they
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should follow evacuation orders given by
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local officials since this thing will
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probably be stronger than forecast to
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when it makes landfall okay now I'm
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going to highlight this part here in red
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we're talking about damaging that's the
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wrong red
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all right we're talking about damaging
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and lifethreatening hurricane force
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winds okay these are very you know
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damaging winds here expected portions of
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Southern
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Louisiana on Wednesday okay this is
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again when I do expect the sink to make
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landfall sometime on Wednesday afternoon
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and there are hurricane warnings that
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are in effect so please keep that in
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mind preparations protect life and
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property should be complete by Tuesday
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night since tropical storm conditions
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are expected to start within this area
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early Wednesday so we're talking
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Wednesday morning this thing is going to
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be moving really fast which that's the
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good news right but we are expecting to
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see long lasting
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impacts she is also expected to bring
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heavy rainfall and the risk for
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considerable flash
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flooding along the coast of Northeast
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Mexico you guys are not out of the woods
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from the system the far lower and far
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upper in Texas coast Southern Louisiana
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and Southern Mississippi this goes all
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the way into Thursday morning wow yeah
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this thing goes for a while and risk
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Flash and urban fllying exist across
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forces a mid south from Wednesday into
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Friday morning so very very important
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things we need to take from the system
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here we are talking about storm surge
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how much of it will we see well it's a
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lot look at this 5 to 10 ft of storm
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surge here across some portions near
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along the Louisiana Coastline from
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Cameron here all the way to port for
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here as well we're talking about
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significant storm search they're a
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little uncertain it could be 5T could be
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10 ft could even be more if this thing
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intensifies so please watch that very
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closely we are expecting near New
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Orleans if you were to go to the South
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we're talking about 4 to 7 fet of storm
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surge from Port foron to the mouth of
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the Mississippi River here so very
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significant storm surge there as well
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and even if you're in your yellow
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shadings watch out Lake pona train yeah
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you you people along there might need to
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watch it a little bit closely and the
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Mississippi Alabama border as well could
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be SE some impacts High Island gaveston
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Bay just a little bit so on and so forth
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picture yourself with a wall of water in
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front of your face that is upwards of 8
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to 10 ft high that is not something to
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mess around with that'll just pick you
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up and sweep you out to see in a hurry
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so just keep this in mind be very
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Vigilant and maintain your situational
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awareness if you do get caught in these
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flood waters okay so long ago with the
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storm surge Maps we just looked at we're
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going to take a look at our excessive
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rainfall Outlook and we have a very
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large moderate risk in place here for
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portions like Lake Charles New Orleans
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here even closer to Jackson so we are
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expecting a a lot of heavy rain and a
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lot of flooding from this system with
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all this tropical moisture comes a ton
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of rain all right now it's time to get a
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little crazy let's take a look at our
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ocean heat content values as if we have
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to gosh well we're talking about values
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that are extremely high nearly historic
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for this time of year where this storm
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will be going over I want you to take a
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look at these Shades here talking about
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values upwards here
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of 160 to
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175 wow that is a lot of ocean heat
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content there for this system to bathe
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in and you you're already starting to
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see signs of potentially some rapid
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organization and quick intensification
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rates right now as we speak I don't want
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to say rapid intensification but quick
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intensification for sure is underway
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mainly due to your favorite conditions
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in your hot hot hot ocean heat content
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and sea surface temperatures that go
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really far down deep into the Gulf right
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now now let's take a look at our half B
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hurricane model here for Francine and
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you can
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see very terrible initiation in fact
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gosh the beginning stage of this model I
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would actually disregard this in total
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you know I didn't even realize this till
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now let's find another model that
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actually initializes us properly if we
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can okay I think we're finally good I I
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kept pulling up the wrong model data I
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think I'm finally getting this here
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we're looking at our half's a model from
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the previous full model run we can't go
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off of a 24-hour forecast right we're
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going to look a little further out than
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that we can see its initialization not
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the best
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but I guess we're not going to find any
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mod that does this properly but this is
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the best shot we've got so far you can
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definitely see you got some heavy
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precipitation around the system right
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now to the Western Edge that is going to
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flip over the next few days and I will
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show you why so we begin to see this
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this is into
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tonight this I this could really be
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underdoing the intensity I'm not
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entirely sure but we're talking about
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still a high-end tropical storm by
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tomorrow morning I really think this
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will be a hurricane by then due to your
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convection overnight and finally Maybe
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by tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow
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evening this could finally become a
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hurricane I think it'll be a lot sooner
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but you could see kind of an
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asymmetrical look to the system you have
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an intercourse starting to form which
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already has so the models are going to
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be playing catchup over the next little
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bit but you can see consolidation begins
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you get a stronger system and by
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Wednesday morning we could be talking
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about upwards of a category 2 hurricane
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with very intense rainfall rates here
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and water spouts Galore back out to the
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east there is a very notable tornado
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risk with this system very concerning
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risk we will talk about here later you
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could see possibly upwards of a category
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2 landfall kind of getting more
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symmetrical there buried in within its
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inner core and a lot of water spouts and
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tor tornadoes occurring on Shore here
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that we really need to pay attention to
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I'm not going to stop emphasizing it the
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tornado risk might be a little
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significant here so we're seeing here
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this is for Wednesday evening like I
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said 14pm CDT is when I do expect
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landfall of this system and you can see
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some consolidation at the last second
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here at landfall and this continues to
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move on Shore tons of wi spouts and tons
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of tornadoes possibly in these bands
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here this could be a very big issue for
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portions here of alab Southern Alabama
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and Southern Mississippi as well now for
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your winds here look at this we are
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expecting this thing this is complete
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bogus tomorrow night a hurricane give me
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a break it's almost there already but
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you can see rapid intensification here
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you can really see here intensification
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up to landfall here oh and you know what
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while we're at our landfall Point here I
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just wanted to make it obvious that even
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though this isn't a major hurricane this
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still will cause significant wind damage
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yeah believe it or not that does happen
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and I think a good way to describe this
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right now is you know if you live down
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in these areas here I'd especially pay
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attention I would like you all right to
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picture your backyard really quick all
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right picture all the trees everywhere
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you know stuff like that and then let's
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picture what 100 m hour sustained winds
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would look like could you imagine how
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much tree damage there would be from
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that you would have trees falling
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everywhere branches all over the ground
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it would be Total Carnage back there so
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you know just because this isn't a major
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hurricane doesn't mean you take it any
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less seriously I know how I would feel
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if there were 100 mph winds you know in
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the backyard that would that'd be kind
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of scary wouldn't it I mean my goodness
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so just put that in your minds there
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that analogy and I think you'll be a lot
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more willing to prepare for these events
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as they do occur and we do have Category
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2 force winds on your Southwestern edge
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here talk about upwards around 95 to 100
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m an hour at landfall but you could see
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quite a large Windfield here really even
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getting New Orleans on the action here
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for tropical storm force winds so you
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need so you need to be very mindful of
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that we're talking about to we're
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talking about Wednesday afternoon for a
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landfall time frame these winds do
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persist in land as well and we could
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certainly be seeing upwards of 30 to
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almost 40 mph winds here getting into
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Memphis while really getting into you
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know portions between Arkansas Tennesse
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along the Mississippi River so what's
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the driving force behind this system why
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is it going to be moving so quickly to
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Northeast like it's being ejected out of
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a glass Cannon well let me tell you why
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we have a ton of wind shear on the way
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from a trough system well at first this
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wind shear here will not affect the
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system this will all be outflow dominant
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here as we'd say a lot of your winds
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from the system lot your outflow kind of
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spanning away from it this is causing a
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nice bubble where the system can
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intensify but you can see look it off to
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your North oh my gosh that's a lot of
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wind shear so your clouds are going to
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be ripping across the sky there your
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upper level cloud that is and you could
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see finally as we get into to looks like
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Wednesday morning your system does get
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slammed by this wind shear but okay but
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this is very important this could impact
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the system in a positive way depending
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on the tilt of this wind shear Direction
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it's coming from it could provide
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additional lift and cause rapid
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intensification as we could see here
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this becomes a category 1
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hurricane if it isn't already these
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models are really slow and I would
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actually add a little bit of
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intensification onto this set already
00:15:04
shows but you can see this is what we'd
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like to call a favorable jet interaction
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and it yeah it looks quite favorable
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here as it continues pounding into that
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wind shear look at that it does continue
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to intensify under those conditions so a
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relatively favorable environment for the
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system to grow and sustain in it does
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appear now if we just re rewind the
00:15:30
video from a long time ago remember how
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I said that the tornado potential might
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be a huge issue let me show you why this
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is our HR highresolution rapid refresh
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model here we're going to take a look at
00:15:44
Francine as it comes up north would like
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to already note got some fairly decent
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looking water spout signatures here you
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have these supercell structures that
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have a nice hook to them over the open
00:15:58
Waters of the golf but these will slowly
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move closer to the Shoreline and you
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could see especially as this part of the
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system becomes less organized and gusts
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outwards here into the warm sector let's
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think of this as a severe weather system
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let's think of a classic Southeastern
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tornado outbreak event here well let's
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think about this all right you have a
00:16:25
warm sector out here like so it's
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probably draped like that your warm
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front and it even goes a little further
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back but we do in fact have a pseudo
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cold front feature not precisely a cold
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front but it's going to act like one
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here on the system this is going to
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begin to push further off to the East
00:16:50
and this is going to cause additional
00:16:52
wind sheer out ahead of it which is
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going to cause a ton of discret
00:16:57
supercell development here and
00:17:00
semidiscrete supercell development this
00:17:03
is going to significantly uptrend your
00:17:05
water spout threat and your tornado
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threat look at some of these bands
00:17:10
moving on Shore look at these arcing
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bands of supercells here that are
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embedded here within the rain yeah these
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could become a very significant problem
00:17:21
as these move on Shore and could obtain
00:17:23
your rotational couplets that you're
00:17:25
looking for look at this goodness
00:17:28
gracious we're talking Wednesday morning
00:17:30
could be seeing a ton of tornado
00:17:32
warnings that do get issued even for the
00:17:35
New Orleans area so if you are along the
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immediate the
00:17:41
immediate Louisiana Coastline you need
00:17:45
to have your weather radios turned on or
00:17:48
your emergency alert notifications
00:17:50
turned on your phone so you could
00:17:52
receive emergency alerts as to when
00:17:55
these tornado warnings get issued and
00:17:57
when there might be a tornado tracking
00:17:59
straight through your neighborhood as we
00:18:01
continue through time going into
00:18:03
Wednesday afternoon good grief look at
00:18:08
these supercells marching their way on
00:18:10
Shore wouldn't even shock me if you do
00:18:13
see a strong tornado or two in an
00:18:15
environment like this cannot rule that
00:18:18
out especially if your system is a lot
00:18:20
weaker like the HR shows but you know at
00:18:24
this point probably won't be weaker but
00:18:25
you'll still see a decent heightened
00:18:27
tornado risk here even into the Florida
00:18:30
Panhandle could see a couple of these
00:18:32
stragglers moving up and on Shore so
00:18:35
please be very vigilent so one last
00:18:37
couple of things I want to look at is
00:18:39
our radar presentation of Francine right
00:18:42
now you can see the majority of the
00:18:44
rainfall is actually depleted as
00:18:47
vanished diminished here across your
00:18:50
Northeastern edge here you're only left
00:18:53
with some bands here we're not seeing
00:18:55
our Consolidated you know heavy rainfall
00:18:58
AC Ross the board moisture Rich system
00:19:01
and we're also starting to notice a bit
00:19:05
of a dry air moat that's getting ejected
00:19:08
into where your eyewall would be or
00:19:10
where your outer eyewall would be here
00:19:13
and if this continues to occur your
00:19:15
system might not rapidly intensify into
00:19:18
a hurricane as soon as we all think
00:19:21
which would be fantastic news for the
00:19:23
coast you know that is what we want to
00:19:26
hear less storm surge less wind less
00:19:29
rain good all across the board but you
00:19:32
shouldn't take that face value we do see
00:19:34
an eye that is beginning to develop here
00:19:36
on radar indicative as a strong tropical
00:19:39
storm potentially a low-end category one
00:19:41
hurricane as we speak and you can even
00:19:45
see some of your eyewall here that's
00:19:48
beginning to form up around the system
00:19:51
and it's becoming relatively closed off
00:19:54
with some weaker convection at the
00:19:56
moment and one more awesome thing we
00:19:58
should look at is our satellite imagery
00:20:00
of the system and I really want you all
00:20:04
to keep your composure here all right so
00:20:06
you see an eye starting to form and
00:20:09
basically anyone who is not well trained
00:20:11
in the weather Community is going to go
00:20:12
major hurricane major hurricane we got
00:20:16
an i that's a category three
00:20:19
okay pause for just a second no first of
00:20:23
all this is not a major hurricane the
00:20:26
reason why we have an eye forming is cuz
00:20:28
of your lack of convection around your
00:20:30
Center here so we had a very big blob of
00:20:33
convection that was occurring earlier
00:20:35
very anemic and not very organized so
00:20:39
we're seeing this here Big Blob of
00:20:41
basically you know nothing here just a
00:20:43
ton of convection and what happened is
00:20:46
all that waned off as we got more
00:20:48
circulation and now we see an eye coming
00:20:51
through this weak convection here and I
00:20:54
guarantee you once we get more cloud
00:20:56
cover over that area that IE will be sh
00:20:58
crowded once again so okay so okay so it
00:21:04
is likely a high-end tropical storm
00:21:06
maybe a low-end hurricane nothing more
00:21:08
than that presentation can be extremely
00:21:11
deceiving sometimes with these systems
00:21:13
here and just to be clear I wasn't
00:21:15
trying to make fun of you know any
00:21:17
unexperienced weather enthusiasts out
00:21:19
there I was just kind of playing on a
00:21:21
joke there no hard feelings at all but
00:21:24
with that being said thank you all so
00:21:26
much for tuning in to this urgent update
00:21:28
on Hurricane Fran scene if you did all
00:21:31
enjoy please be sure to smash that like
00:21:33
button leave a comment in the section
00:21:35
below this video if you have any
00:21:37
questions about what I went through if
00:21:40
there's any terminology you didn't quite
00:21:42
understand I will be sure to answer
00:21:44
those and also feel free to subscribe to
00:21:46
my little corner of the weather
00:21:48
Community get the word out on this video
00:21:50
as well and if you want to know when I
00:21:53
make future updates in any other
00:21:54
tropical systems you know us weather
00:21:57
forecasting winter weather systems
00:21:59
whatever it is sever weather well be
00:22:02
sure to hit the Bell notification icon
00:22:04
so you can get informed of when I do
00:22:07
another upload or another thing of
00:22:10
content that being said thank you all so
00:22:12
much for tuning in have a wonderful
00:22:14
evening and stay safe and weather aware
00:22:18
out there down in the Gulf Coast
