00:00:00
There is a high probability that the
00:00:02
small battery in your smartphone
00:00:04
contains lithium from Chilean deposits,
00:00:08
Indonesian nickel as well as cobalt
00:00:11
mined in Congalles mines controlled by
00:00:14
the Chinese and employing local
00:00:16
children. Critical minerals and rare
00:00:19
earth metals have today become the
00:00:21
central point of geopolitical rivalry
00:00:24
between powers because whoever controls
00:00:27
critical minerals controls the future.
00:00:30
You can't produce clean energy without
00:00:33
dirty extractive industry. These words
00:00:36
from the director of advanced magnet lab
00:00:39
perfectly capture the paradox of our
00:00:41
times. On one hand we talk about
00:00:43
decarbonization and green
00:00:45
transformation. On the other, we need
00:00:47
unprecedented exploitation of natural
00:00:50
resources to achieve this. One electric
00:00:53
car requires six times more minerals
00:00:56
than a combustion engine vehicle, and a
00:00:59
wind farm requires 9 times more than a
00:01:02
gas power plant. In just two years,
00:01:04
between 2021 and 2023, the prices of
00:01:08
lithium carbonate, a key element for the
00:01:11
electric revolution, increased by over
00:01:14
400%, only to then fall by
00:01:17
80%. This dramatic change not only shook
00:01:20
the automotive market, but also signaled
00:01:23
the beginning of a new era of
00:01:24
geopolitical competition for resources.
00:01:28
New points of leverage appeared on the
00:01:30
world map. the lithium triangle in South
00:01:33
America, cobalt mines in the heart of
00:01:35
Africa, or Indonesian nickel deposits.
00:01:39
Without these raw minerals, there are no
00:01:42
modern smartphones or electric cars. We
00:01:45
are witnessing a fundamental change. It
00:01:47
is no longer just oil and gas. But
00:01:50
metals are also becoming the fuel of the
00:01:53
21st century. Control over the
00:01:56
extraction, processing and distribution
00:01:58
of critical minerals is now drawing new
00:02:01
front lines in the global competition
00:02:03
for dominance. And in this battle, there
00:02:06
is one clear leader, China, which today
00:02:09
controls 70% of global rare earth metal
00:02:13
production and more than half of the
00:02:15
processing capacity for lithium, nickel,
00:02:18
and cobalt. How did the communist giant
00:02:21
come to monopolize the market for the
00:02:23
resources of the future? How is the west
00:02:26
trying to reverse this situation? And
00:02:28
what does all this mean for the green
00:02:30
transformation that Europe has committed
00:02:33
to? Welcome to the 20s
00:02:36
[Music]
00:02:45
report. After a series of revisions, the
00:02:48
US and Ukraine have reached an agreement
00:02:50
on rare earth metals. Lithium, cobalt,
00:02:54
and titanium are just some of the
00:02:56
reaches that could change the balance of
00:02:58
power in the global economy. At a time
00:03:00
when the commodities market is becoming
00:03:02
a new arena for international
00:03:04
competition, it is worth considering
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You support the development of our
00:03:56
channel. Critical minerals and rare
00:03:58
earth metals are terms that have
00:04:01
dominated headlines in recent years.
00:04:03
Today no one doubts how important these
00:04:06
raw materials are as element in the
00:04:08
global competition for influence. But
00:04:11
what exactly are we talking about? Why
00:04:13
are critical minerals and rare earth
00:04:15
metals so important? Let's start with
00:04:18
definitions. According to the US Energy
00:04:21
Act of 2020, critical minerals are
00:04:24
resources of key importance to the
00:04:26
economy and national security of the
00:04:28
United States. For a mineral to be
00:04:30
considered critical, it must meet three
00:04:33
key conditions. First, it must be
00:04:36
essential for the economic and national
00:04:38
security of the United States. Second,
00:04:41
it must serve an essential function in
00:04:44
the manufacturing of a product, the
00:04:46
absence of which would have significant
00:04:48
consequences for US economic or national
00:04:51
security. And third, the supply chain
00:04:54
for such a mineral is vulnerable to
00:04:56
disruption. For this reason, critical
00:04:58
minerals include lithium, cobalt,
00:05:01
platinum, graphite, titanium, and rare
00:05:04
earth metals among others. Importantly,
00:05:07
fossil fuels and uranium do not belong
00:05:10
to this group. The United States
00:05:12
Geological Survey maintains a list of
00:05:15
these key minerals, which currently
00:05:17
includes 50 items and is updated every 3
00:05:20
years. Each time, their importance in
00:05:23
various sectors of the economy is taken
00:05:25
into account. The last such list was
00:05:27
published in
00:05:29
2022. Already in the 20th century,
00:05:32
Americans recognized the growing
00:05:33
importance of mineral resources in a
00:05:35
globalizing world. The outbreak of World
00:05:38
War II and the associated problems with
00:05:40
raw material supplies prompted Congress
00:05:43
to enact the strategic and critical
00:05:45
minerals stockpiling act. This act aimed
00:05:48
to secure critical minerals necessary
00:05:51
for national defense. Nevertheless, the
00:05:54
development of technology and changing
00:05:56
industry needs, especially in the
00:05:58
defense, advanced consumer technology
00:06:00
and energy sectors have led to a revival
00:06:03
of interest in minerals without which
00:06:06
participation in the great power game
00:06:08
would not be possible. As mentioned
00:06:10
before, rare earth elements are included
00:06:13
among critical minerals, another group
00:06:16
of resources that have gained prominence
00:06:18
in recent years. This is a group of 17
00:06:21
metals comprising two scandium group
00:06:24
elements scandium and etherium as well
00:06:27
as all lantides for example lantinum
00:06:30
neodymium or herbium. In essence, these
00:06:34
are metals that coexist in minerals and
00:06:36
have similar chemical properties and
00:06:39
these properties are unique which makes
00:06:42
these elements applicable in the
00:06:44
production of magnets, displays,
00:06:46
batteries and catalysts among other
00:06:49
things. The name rare earths has its
00:06:51
roots in the 18th century when chemists
00:06:54
called difficult to dissolve and melt
00:06:57
oxides. In reality, these were metal
00:07:00
oxides that we know now as rare earth
00:07:03
elements. In those times, however, these
00:07:06
metals were unknown, hence the term
00:07:08
earths, meaning solid, heavy, and
00:07:11
resistant to processing. The name,
00:07:14
although enigmatic for most, has
00:07:16
survived to this day. Interestingly,
00:07:18
many of these elements are not so rare
00:07:21
in terms of their occurrence in the
00:07:23
Earth's crust. The average concentration
00:07:26
is 150 to 200 ppm which is higher than
00:07:30
the concentration of copper or zinc. The
00:07:33
problem is that they are very dispersed
00:07:35
and it is not easy to find a
00:07:37
concentration large enough to make
00:07:39
extraction economically justified. But
00:07:42
it is precisely this dispersion that
00:07:44
makes us perceive them as rare. World RE
00:07:48
resources are estimated at
00:07:51
about 120 million tons with the largest
00:07:54
deposits amounting to 44 million tons
00:07:58
located in China. The extraction of rare
00:08:01
earth metals is associated with serious
00:08:04
ecological problems. Mining processes
00:08:07
release harmful radionuclides such as
00:08:10
thorium and uranium which pose a threat
00:08:13
to human health and the environment.
00:08:16
Mines emit dust and heavy metals that
00:08:18
pollute the air and soil. Solid waste
00:08:21
dumps are also created which constitute
00:08:24
a long-term source of pollution. The
00:08:26
extraction and processing of rees are
00:08:29
very energyintensive which contributes
00:08:32
to global warming. Moreover, opening new
00:08:35
mines usually open pit leads to the
00:08:39
degradation of natural ecosystems and
00:08:41
the extinction of species. Thus, the
00:08:44
benefits derived from obtaining rare
00:08:46
earth metals come at significant
00:08:49
environmental costs. As emphasized by
00:08:51
Mark Santi, CEO of Advanced Magnet Lab
00:08:55
Incorporated, a company producing
00:08:57
magnets. You can't produce clean energy
00:08:59
without the extractive industry. That's
00:09:02
just the reality. The industry, which as
00:09:05
we see is very dirty. This refreshing
00:09:09
thesis is of course a paradox in the
00:09:11
context of a global pursuit of a clean
00:09:13
and green future. Despite these
00:09:16
problems, it is clear that the demand
00:09:18
for critical minerals will only grow.
00:09:21
The transformation of energy systems
00:09:24
toward clean technologies significantly
00:09:26
increases the demand for critical
00:09:28
minerals. Compared to traditional
00:09:31
hydrocarbon-based systems, technologies
00:09:33
such as photovoltaic power plants, wind
00:09:36
farms, and electric vehicles require
00:09:38
much larger quantities of mineral
00:09:41
resources. The World Bank in its report,
00:09:44
minerals for climate action estimates
00:09:47
that the production of minerals such as
00:09:49
graphite, lithium, and cobalt may
00:09:51
increase by up to 500% by 2050 to meet
00:09:56
the needs of clean energy technologies.
00:09:59
In total, more than three billion tons
00:10:01
of minerals and metals will be needed to
00:10:04
implement wind, solar, and geothermal
00:10:07
energy, as well as energy storage
00:10:09
technologies necessary to achieve
00:10:11
climate goals. Let's translate these
00:10:14
abstract numbers into concrete examples.
00:10:16
The production of one electric car
00:10:18
consumes six times more minerals than a
00:10:22
combustion engine car. And an onshore
00:10:24
wind power plant needs nine times more
00:10:27
minerals than a gas power plant.
00:10:30
Exactly. Are used to produce an electric
00:10:32
car? In the case of the Mustang Mache E,
00:10:35
the following is needed. 66 kg of
00:10:39
graphite, 53 kg of copper, almost 40 kg
00:10:43
of nickel, 24 1/2 kg of manganese, over
00:10:48
13 kg of cobalt, almost 9 kg of lithium,
00:10:52
and smaller amounts of rare earth
00:10:54
metals, zinc, and other raw materials.
00:10:57
As the energy transformation progresses,
00:10:59
the energy related sector is becoming
00:11:02
the main driver of demand for critical
00:11:04
minerals. Between 2010 and 2019, the
00:11:08
average mineral demand for new power
00:11:10
generation units increased by 50%. Which
00:11:14
was related to the development of
00:11:16
renewable energy sources. According to
00:11:18
the forecast of the International Energy
00:11:21
Agency, by 2040 the share of clean
00:11:24
energy technologies in the total demand
00:11:27
for minerals will increase to over 40%
00:11:30
for copper and rare earth elements, 60
00:11:34
to 70% for nickel and cobalt and almost
00:11:38
90% for lithium. Therefore, the green
00:11:41
energy transformation so
00:11:43
enthusiastically promoted worldwide
00:11:46
contains a fascinating paradox. On one
00:11:48
hand, there is a drive to decarbonize
00:11:51
economies and move away from fossil
00:11:53
fuels. On the other hand, this same
00:11:56
transformation requires an unprecedented
00:11:59
intensification of mineral and metal
00:12:01
extraction. Therefore, when we have
00:12:04
minerals that are essential for the
00:12:06
development of a new branch of the
00:12:07
economy for which demand is expected to
00:12:10
rise sharply in the coming years, while
00:12:13
their supply is limited for many
00:12:15
reasons, it becomes clear that we have a
00:12:17
resource that all the major geopolitical
00:12:20
players want to control. A new
00:12:22
battlefield is being created. Control
00:12:25
over critical minerals and re supply
00:12:28
chains takes on strategic importance and
00:12:31
states strive to secure their interests
00:12:33
in the face of growing competition. In
00:12:36
the 20th century, the front lines of
00:12:38
international rivalry run through the
00:12:40
oil fields of the Middle East, Siberia's
00:12:43
gas deposits, and the extraction
00:12:45
platforms of the Gulf of Mexico. Because
00:12:47
it was oil and natural gas that shaped
00:12:50
the global balance of power. Today we
00:12:53
are witnessing a fundamental change. It
00:12:55
is no longer only hydrocarbons but also
00:12:58
metals that are becoming the key element
00:13:01
of the geopolitical puzzle. Lithium,
00:13:03
cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite,
00:13:07
copper and rare earth metals. These are
00:13:10
the new fuel of the digital age and
00:13:12
green transformation. So what does the
00:13:15
new map of critical minerals look like?
00:13:18
Let's start with South America. Here
00:13:20
beats the heart of the lithium triangle.
00:13:22
Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia. More than
00:13:26
55% of the world's lithium resources
00:13:29
come from here. Chile, thanks to the
00:13:31
salt deserts like Salard de Atakama, is
00:13:34
one of the largest exporters of lithium.
00:13:37
Bolivia, on the other hand, is estimated
00:13:39
to possess the world's largest resources
00:13:42
of this metal, over 21 million tons,
00:13:45
although it is still developing its
00:13:47
extraction capabilities. This is a
00:13:49
region with enormous potential but also
00:13:52
political instability that affects the
00:13:54
pace of investment. Africa is virtually
00:13:57
a resource elorado and an arena for
00:14:00
strategic power games. For example, the
00:14:03
Democratic Republic of Congo accounts
00:14:05
for as much as 74% of global cobalt
00:14:08
extraction which has largely been taken
00:14:11
over by the Chinese who have invested
00:14:14
billions of dollars there. Meanwhile,
00:14:16
Namibia, South Africa, and Madagascar
00:14:19
are becoming important suppliers of
00:14:21
graphite, manganesees, and rare earth
00:14:24
elements. Africa has resources, but it
00:14:27
is not Africa that decides what happens
00:14:30
to them. Southeast Asia, especially
00:14:32
Indonesia and the Philippines, are today
00:14:34
the biggest players in the nickel
00:14:36
market. Indonesia produced as much as
00:14:39
2.2 million tons in 2024. That's more
00:14:42
than half of the global supply. Thanks
00:14:45
to the ban on ore exports and the
00:14:47
requirement for local processing, the
00:14:50
country has gained an advantage not only
00:14:52
in raw materials but also in industry.
00:14:55
This is example of a wise though
00:14:57
protectionist resource policy. Finally
00:15:00
we come to China which is a veritable
00:15:03
hedgeimon of this sector. This country
00:15:06
currently controls almost 75% of global
00:15:10
rare earth metal production and over 50%
00:15:13
of global lithium, cobalt and nickel
00:15:16
refining capacity. On this foundation,
00:15:18
the Chinese have achieved an advantage
00:15:20
in processing technology. Therefore, in
00:15:23
December 2023, Beijing introduced a ban
00:15:26
on the export of knowhow regarding the
00:15:29
separation and refining of rare earth
00:15:32
metals, securing its monopoly. It was a
00:15:35
wellthoughtout strategic move. North
00:15:38
America and Europe are trying to catch
00:15:40
up. The USA has resumed re extraction in
00:15:44
California mountain pass. Canada is
00:15:47
investing in lithium projects in Quebec.
00:15:50
And Norway and Finland are looking for
00:15:52
their own sources of cobalt and nickel.
00:15:55
But this is still a drop in the ocean
00:15:57
dominated by the Chinese. The new
00:16:00
resource map of the world does not
00:16:02
resemble the old one, the oil map.
00:16:05
Today, instead of the Middle East, we
00:16:08
have the Andes, Central Africa or the
00:16:10
Malai Archipelago. While laboratories in
00:16:14
China are gaining strategic importance.
00:16:16
One might ask where in all this is the
00:16:19
European Union. Europe in its pursuit of
00:16:22
green transformation has found itself
00:16:25
trapped in dependence on China and the
00:16:28
elements essential for the production of
00:16:30
wind turbines and magnets have become a
00:16:32
new form of geopolitical leverage. For
00:16:35
years the union has lagged behind but
00:16:38
recently it has been trying to catch up
00:16:40
in the competition for critical raw
00:16:42
materials. When the global market
00:16:44
shifted from the era of hydrocarbons to
00:16:47
the era of minerals essential for green
00:16:49
transformation, European decision-makers
00:16:52
understood that decisive action was
00:16:54
needed. That is why in response to
00:16:56
growing geopolitical and economic
00:16:58
pressure, the European Commission in May
00:17:01
2024 introduced a new instrument, the
00:17:04
Critical Raw Materials Act, which aims
00:17:07
to diversify sources of critical raw
00:17:09
materials, strengthen the European
00:17:12
supply chain, and increase investment in
00:17:14
recycling and processing technologies.
00:17:17
Thanks to this, the EU wants to reduce
00:17:19
its dependence primarily on Beijing. But
00:17:23
the EU's actions are not limited to
00:17:25
legislation. In March 2025, the European
00:17:29
Commission published a list of 47
00:17:31
strategic projects which we see on this
00:17:34
map. It is a kind of recovery plan aimed
00:17:37
at strengthening European extraction,
00:17:39
processing, and recycling potential. One
00:17:42
of the largest investments is a battery
00:17:44
metal refining plant, POV, in Zavier,
00:17:48
Poland. The $800 million investment by
00:17:51
Elemental Group aims to recover lithium,
00:17:54
nickel, cobalt, and copper among others
00:17:57
from electronic waste. A particular
00:18:00
concentration of extraction and
00:18:02
processing projects can be seen on the
00:18:05
Iberian Peninsula in France, Belgium,
00:18:07
and Germany as well as in the north of
00:18:10
the continent. So the EU is not
00:18:13
remaining passive through the
00:18:15
introduction of critical raw materials
00:18:17
act and the implementation of strategic
00:18:19
projects. The European Union is trying
00:18:22
to redefine its place on the new
00:18:24
resource map. This is further evidence
00:18:27
that resource geopolitics is a field
00:18:30
where what counts is not only access to
00:18:32
deposits but above all the ability to
00:18:34
process and manage the entire supply
00:18:37
chain. This still ongoing war in Ukraine
00:18:40
played also a significant role in this
00:18:42
European surge which not only disrupt
00:18:45
global supply chains but also became a
00:18:48
catalyst for rapid reforms in the
00:18:50
critical mineral sector. In this
00:18:52
context, it is worth mentioning that
00:18:54
Ukraine itself has re deposits which
00:18:58
even became the subject of peace
00:19:00
negotiations. Although as it later
00:19:02
turned out, their scale may have been
00:19:05
drastically overestimated. Nevertheless,
00:19:08
on February 3rd, 2025, Donald Trump
00:19:11
stated that he wants to gain access to
00:19:13
Ukrainian rare earth mineral resources
00:19:16
in exchange for military and financial
00:19:18
support, which he initially valued at
00:19:21
$500 billion. The figure is far from
00:19:25
accurate, but ultimately both sides
00:19:27
reached an agreement. New mining
00:19:30
projects, including those involving
00:19:31
critical minerals, will be implemented
00:19:34
in Ukraine with American
00:19:37
participation. The Americans are also
00:19:39
attempting to get their way via the
00:19:42
Democratic Republic of Congo. This
00:19:44
Central African country is full of
00:19:46
contradictions. Poverty, instability,
00:19:48
and conflict on the one hand, and
00:19:50
absolute dominance when it comes to
00:19:53
cobalt on the other. Over 70% of the
00:19:57
world's production of this key resource
00:19:59
comes from here. However, the biggest
00:20:02
external player in the DRC is of course
00:20:05
China. Already in the first decade of
00:20:08
the 21st century, Beijing began an
00:20:10
offensive buying shares in key mines.
00:20:14
State giants like China Malib Denim
00:20:16
operated there which today control over
00:20:19
60% of cobalt mining in Democratic
00:20:22
Republic of Congo. In exchange for
00:20:24
concessions, Congo received Chinese
00:20:27
investments in infrastructure, roads,
00:20:30
hospitals, energy. This was the minerals
00:20:33
for development model, a model paid for
00:20:36
by the backbreaking work of locals. This
00:20:39
is how Vince Biser writes about work
00:20:41
conditions in Congalles mines in the
00:20:44
book Power Metal, the race for the
00:20:46
resources that will shape the future.
00:20:49
The worst mines in the DRC are as if
00:20:52
taken straight from a nightmare. The
00:20:54
giant corporations selling products
00:20:56
containing Congalles cobalt are worth
00:20:59
trillions. And yet the people who
00:21:01
extract cobalt from the ground barely
00:21:04
make ends meet living in extreme poverty
00:21:07
and immense suffering. Rice researcher
00:21:10
Sidara Ka. They exist on the edge of
00:21:13
human life in an environment that is
00:21:15
treated as a toxic dump by foreign
00:21:18
mining companies. The most shocking
00:21:20
conditions prevail in relatively small
00:21:23
unauthorized mines called artisal. It is
00:21:26
estimated that about 200,000 people work
00:21:30
in such places providing approximately
00:21:33
15 to 20% of the total national cobalt
00:21:36
production. Men dressed only in shirts,
00:21:38
t-shirts, and flip-flops with
00:21:41
flashlights attached to their heads
00:21:43
spent entire days in deep, crumped
00:21:46
underground tunnels, extracting cobalt
00:21:49
using hand tools. Helmets or protective
00:21:52
glasses are rarely seen accessories. The
00:21:55
dangerous dust they inhale is the least
00:21:59
of their worries. This is a sobering
00:22:02
background for the great power
00:22:03
competition taking place in the
00:22:05
foreground. Washington is also not
00:22:07
indifferent. In recent years, the
00:22:09
American administration as well as
00:22:11
companies such as Tesla and Ford have
00:22:14
begun to intensively search for
00:22:15
alternatives both in terms of sources of
00:22:18
raw materials and ways to secure them.
00:22:21
The Biden administration launched a fund
00:22:23
supporting investments in Africa, also
00:22:26
to regain influence lost to China.
00:22:29
Washington also tried to indirectly
00:22:31
interfere in Congalles contracts,
00:22:34
pressing for renegotiations of Chinese
00:22:36
agreements as well as an audit of the
00:22:39
prominent Sino Congalles agreement
00:22:41
concluded in 2008 between the DRC
00:22:45
government and China. In essence, this
00:22:47
agreement concerned the exchange of
00:22:49
natural resources for infrastructure
00:22:52
expenditures. As a result, Chinese
00:22:54
companies became owners of 15 of the 19
00:22:58
best cobalt and copper deposits in the
00:23:02
country. And let's remember that cobalt
00:23:04
is essential for the production of
00:23:06
batteries for electric cars,
00:23:07
smartphones, or energy storage systems.
00:23:10
No wonder there is a global banner for
00:23:12
control over its source. And so no one
00:23:16
in the industry has any illusions that
00:23:18
China is the undisputed leader in the
00:23:21
critical minerals market. This position
00:23:23
results from a combination of abundant
00:23:26
natural resources, advanced technology,
00:23:29
and less rigorous environmental and
00:23:31
labor regulations which allows for more
00:23:34
efficient and cheaper production.
00:23:36
However, it should be noted that
00:23:37
Beijing's current success is also the
00:23:40
effect of cold calculation, long-term
00:23:42
planning, and investments counted in
00:23:45
tens of billions of dollars. Today,
00:23:47
Beijing controls almost 70% of global
00:23:50
rare earth metal production. In the case
00:23:52
of graphite, it's already over
00:23:55
78%. And when it comes to the refining
00:23:58
of lithium, nickel, or cobalt, China has
00:24:01
more than half of the world's processing
00:24:03
capacity under control. This is not an
00:24:05
advantage. This is full dominance. How
00:24:09
it is possible that China has surpassed
00:24:11
the West by decades in this strategic
00:24:14
race. In February 2025, Beijing once
00:24:17
again reminded the world of its
00:24:19
significance by introducing export
00:24:22
restrictions on five key medals,
00:24:25
including tungsten, which is extremely
00:24:27
important for the American defense
00:24:29
industry. In April, China implemented
00:24:32
stringent export controls on an
00:24:35
additional seven critical rees. This was
00:24:38
a powerful reaction to Trump's tariffs.
00:24:41
Undoubtedly, it was a show of strength.
00:24:44
China is also the world's leader in
00:24:46
battery production, especially lithium
00:24:49
ion batteries. Currently, they produce
00:24:52
more than 3/4 of batteries sold
00:24:54
worldwide. The largest producers are
00:24:57
giants such as CL and BYD. Moreover,
00:25:01
Beijing accounts for almost 90% of
00:25:04
global installed production capacity for
00:25:06
cathode minerals and over 97% of
00:25:10
production capacity for anode minerals,
00:25:13
the key battery components that enable
00:25:15
energy flow. In the book, The War Below:
00:25:18
Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle
00:25:21
to Power Our Lives, author Ernest Shider
00:25:24
describes China's advantage in lithium
00:25:26
ion battery production as follows. In
00:25:29
2021, China built or was building 148 of
00:25:33
the world's 200 existing gigafactories
00:25:37
producing lithium ion batteries. Of
00:25:39
these, 21 are in Europe and 11 in North
00:25:43
America. By 2049, China wants to launch
00:25:47
another 101 such facilities on its
00:25:50
territory out of 136 planned. But China
00:25:54
is not only operating domestically. The
00:25:57
famous belt and road initiative, a huge
00:25:59
infrastructure and economic program
00:26:01
initiated by Xi Jinping has become a
00:26:04
vehicle for expansion in resource sector
00:26:06
as well. In 2024, Chinese investments in
00:26:10
the metals and mining sector under this
00:26:12
initiative reached a record 21.4
00:26:16
billion. That's more than ever before.
00:26:19
Most of these funds go to Latin America,
00:26:22
Indonesia, and above all to Africa. In
00:26:25
Africa alone, investments increased by
00:26:28
more than 30% in 2024, reaching almost
00:26:32
$30 billion US. In these areas, Chinese
00:26:36
companies not only extract cobalt,
00:26:38
lithium, and copper. They also build
00:26:41
roads, railways, power plants, thus
00:26:43
entire ecosystems that tie local
00:26:46
economies to Beijing. It is worth adding
00:26:48
that they not only invest but also
00:26:50
restrict access to knowhow. In December
00:26:53
2023, China introduced a ban on the
00:26:56
export of rare earth metal processing
00:26:59
technology. This was a clear signal. We
00:27:02
control the supply chain from the mine
00:27:04
to the finished component. In the face
00:27:06
of Chinese dominance in critical raw
00:27:09
materials, therefore an industry that
00:27:11
shapes the future of the world, the
00:27:13
United States is taking a series of
00:27:15
actions to level the playing field. The
00:27:17
turning point was the Joe Biden
00:27:19
administration's decision to prioritize
00:27:21
domestic production of raw materials
00:27:24
crucial for energy transformation and
00:27:26
national security. The first step was
00:27:28
the inflation reduction act of 2022
00:27:31
which in addition to enormous
00:27:32
investments in green energy mandated
00:27:35
that components of electric vehicles and
00:27:37
batteries come from the USA or partner
00:27:40
countries. This means one thing. America
00:27:43
must produce its own critical minerals
00:27:46
and should do it quickly. Almost
00:27:48
simultaneously, Biden activated that
00:27:51
Defense Production Act, a Cold War era
00:27:54
law that allows the government to
00:27:56
directly invest in key sectors. Thanks
00:27:58
to it, the Department of Defense began
00:28:01
financing the development of domestic
00:28:03
extraction of lithium, cobalt, or
00:28:05
neodymium. Finally, the Chips and
00:28:08
Science Act enacted the same year,
00:28:11
although mainly known for investments in
00:28:13
semiconductors also includes billions of
00:28:16
dollars for research on new materials
00:28:19
and alternatives to difficult to access
00:28:21
raw materials. Specific investments also
00:28:24
followed the new regulations. In 2022,
00:28:27
the Biden administration provided $35
00:28:30
million in funding to MP materials
00:28:33
project for processing heavy rare earth
00:28:36
metals in Mountain Pass, California,
00:28:38
which is the first such installation in
00:28:40
the USA. China controls most of the
00:28:43
global market for these minerals. We
00:28:46
cannot build a future that is made in
00:28:48
America if we ourselves are dependent on
00:28:51
China for the minerals that power
00:28:53
products of today and tomorrow, said Joe
00:28:56
Biden in February 2022. But the United
00:29:00
States doesn't want to act alone. In
00:29:02
Texas, a RE processing plant funded by
00:29:05
the Department of Defense is being
00:29:07
built, which run by the Australian
00:29:10
company Linus Rare Earths will be the
00:29:13
first such facility outside China with a
00:29:16
full production cycle. In parallel, in
00:29:19
Arkansas, the Canadian company Standard
00:29:22
Lithium is developing a project to
00:29:23
extract lithium from natural brines, an
00:29:27
alternative to traditional mining, much
00:29:29
less invasive for the environment. In
00:29:32
January 2025, the project received as
00:29:34
much as $225 million in support from the
00:29:39
Department of Energy. Washington knows
00:29:42
that it is impossible to completely cut
00:29:44
off from the world. Therefore, the
00:29:46
United States established the minerals
00:29:48
security partnership, an international
00:29:51
alliance with countries possessing
00:29:53
resources and knowhow. Under the MSP,
00:29:56
the USA cooperates with Australia,
00:29:59
Canada, Japan, the EU, and South Korea
00:30:02
to build common supply chains free from
00:30:05
Beijing's influence. An interesting
00:30:07
example here is Canada, which in the
00:30:09
fall of 2024 announced an ambitious plan
00:30:12
to become the first commercial source of
00:30:15
rare earth elements in North America. At
00:30:17
that time, the already existing
00:30:19
Saskatchewan research council re
00:30:22
processing and production facility began
00:30:25
commercial scale production. The plan is
00:30:27
for this unit to produce 400 tons of
00:30:30
neodymium praiodmium annually. This is a
00:30:34
quantity sufficient to produce 500,000
00:30:36
electric vehicles. It is worth adding
00:30:39
that the facility also intends to
00:30:41
process Samarium essential for the
00:30:43
production of F-35 fighters in an amount
00:30:46
covering 25% of North America's needs.
00:30:50
In addition to building mines and
00:30:52
processing plants, the United States is
00:30:54
also investing in future technologies.
00:30:56
The Department of Energy created the
00:30:59
Critical Minerals Innovation Hub, a
00:31:01
research center that deals with
00:31:03
recycling used batteries and searching
00:31:05
for substitutes for the most difficult
00:31:08
to access raw materials. It is also
00:31:11
worth mentioning that work is underway
00:31:13
on alternative methods of obtaining RE
00:31:16
compared to traditional extraction. One
00:31:19
promising concept is recovering these
00:31:21
elements from coal ash. This method
00:31:24
allows for the use of existing waste,
00:31:26
reducing the need to open new mines.
00:31:29
Research conducted by the University of
00:31:31
Texas at Austin has shown that coal ash,
00:31:34
which is a residue from coal combustion,
00:31:37
contains significant amounts of rare
00:31:39
earth elements. In the United States,
00:31:42
about 1,800 million tons of coal ash
00:31:46
have been accumulated over decades, of
00:31:49
which about 70% is potentially
00:31:51
recoverable. It is estimated that this
00:31:54
ash contains about 11 million tons of re
00:31:58
which is almost 8 times the current US
00:32:01
domestic reserves. The value of these
00:32:04
elements is estimated at 8.4 billion US.
00:32:09
Another way to obtain RE is also
00:32:11
recycling electronic waste which
00:32:13
constitutes a valuable secondary source
00:32:16
of rare elf elements. Research is also
00:32:19
being conducted in this area. Today, no
00:32:22
one in the USA has any doubts. Control
00:32:24
over strategic raw materials is a matter
00:32:27
of national security. Will America
00:32:29
manage to defront China? This is far
00:32:32
from happening. But the fact is that the
00:32:34
USA has returned to the game. Now, let's
00:32:37
investigate lithium for a moment. In
00:32:40
recent years, the market related to this
00:32:42
raw material has experienced a real
00:32:44
roller coaster. In the years 2021 2023,
00:32:48
lithium carbonate prices increased by
00:32:50
over
00:32:51
400%, reaching record levels in November
00:32:55
2022 when more than $80,000 was paid per
00:32:59
ton. This sharp increase resulted from
00:33:02
the growing demand for electric cars and
00:33:04
energy storage systems. Battery
00:33:07
producers fearing shortages began to
00:33:09
massively accumulate stocks, which
00:33:12
further drove prices up. But already in
00:33:15
2023, there was a collapse. Prices fell
00:33:18
by as much as 80% within a few months.
00:33:21
Why? First, the market became saturated
00:33:24
with inventory. Second, demand in China,
00:33:27
which is the main consumer of lithium,
00:33:29
began to slow down due to economic
00:33:32
deceleration and a decline in EV sales.
00:33:35
This was compounded by a global increase
00:33:37
in supply. Australia, Chile, and China
00:33:40
increased extraction and new mining
00:33:43
projects began to enter the market. This
00:33:46
shows how unstable and susceptible to
00:33:48
speculation the lithium market is. A raw
00:33:51
material that will be one of the pillars
00:33:53
of energy transformation in the coming
00:33:55
decades. Projections indicate that by
00:33:58
2030, lithium demand will increase 3 and
00:34:01
1/2 fold and by 2034 nearly by
00:34:05
sevenfold. There is a risk that the
00:34:08
supply of lithium will not meet the
00:34:10
growing demand. Already by 2029, a
00:34:13
deficit may occur that will hinder
00:34:16
energy transformation. For comparison,
00:34:18
in a single year up to 2029, more
00:34:21
lithium will be needed than was
00:34:23
extracted in the years 2015 to
00:34:27
2022. Currently, lithium production is
00:34:30
dominated by four countries, Australia,
00:34:33
Chile, China, and Argentina. Australia
00:34:36
is the leader in lithium ore extraction,
00:34:38
but China controls a significant part of
00:34:41
the supply chain, processing the raw
00:34:43
material. Lithium extraction takes place
00:34:45
mainly from ores, 66% and brine, 34%.
00:34:50
Australia specializes in ores, while
00:34:53
South America specializes in brine. The
00:34:56
United States, once an important lithium
00:34:59
producer, currently accounts for more
00:35:01
than 1% of global production. However,
00:35:04
it aims to increase domestic extraction
00:35:06
to reduce dependence on imports. The
00:35:09
growing demand for lithium requires
00:35:11
sustainable methods of extraction and
00:35:14
recycling to ensure the stability of
00:35:16
supply of this strategic raw material.
00:35:19
As electric vehicles and battery storage
00:35:21
systems become dominant forces in the
00:35:23
energy transition, they are rapidly
00:35:26
emerging as the primary consumers of
00:35:28
lithium and other critical minerals. In
00:35:31
the global push to reduce emissions,
00:35:33
ensuring the resilience and security of
00:35:35
energy systems is no longer just a
00:35:37
technical challenge. It is a strategic
00:35:40
imperative. Policymakers must now
00:35:42
grapple with a new category of risks.
00:35:45
Those tied to the rising geopolitical
00:35:47
significance of minerals that underpin
00:35:49
an electrified energy infrastructure.
00:35:53
And so what lies ahead? Several
00:35:56
plausible futures are taking shape. The
00:35:58
first is an escalation of geopolitical
00:36:01
competition. As demand for lithium,
00:36:03
cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements
00:36:05
grows, so too will the race to secure
00:36:08
access to deposits. This could ignite
00:36:11
new tensions in resourcerich regions,
00:36:14
exacerbating instability and drawing
00:36:17
major powers into conflicts over supply
00:36:19
chains and control. A second possibility
00:36:22
is technological disruption.
00:36:25
Breakthroughs in battery chemistry or
00:36:27
alternative storage technologies could
00:36:29
eventually reduce reliance on the most
00:36:31
problematic minerals. But such
00:36:34
developments typically take a decade or
00:36:36
more to mature and scale. Hardly a quick
00:36:39
fix for the pressures facing global
00:36:42
markets today. A third scenario
00:36:44
envisions the rise of a circular economy
00:36:47
driven by a large-scale investments in
00:36:50
recycling and reuse infrastructure. This
00:36:53
approach could alleviate some of the
00:36:55
demand pressure by reclaiming materials
00:36:58
from used devices and spent batteries.
00:37:01
However, it requires massive upfront
00:37:04
capital, innovation, and long-term
00:37:06
planning. None of which can be taken for
00:37:08
granted. Regardless of which path
00:37:10
dominates, one thing is clear. Control
00:37:13
over strategic materials is rapidly
00:37:15
becoming a core element of national
00:37:18
security. Access to these resources will
00:37:21
shape not only a country's energy
00:37:23
transition, but its place in the
00:37:25
emerging global order. States that fail
00:37:28
to secure reliable supply chains risk
00:37:31
falling behind economically,
00:37:34
technologically, and geopolitically.
00:37:36
The coming years will bring a sharper,
00:37:38
more visible contest for critical
00:37:41
minerals. This competition will shape
00:37:43
foreign policy agendas and influence
00:37:46
everyday life. From the price of
00:37:48
electric vehicles to the availability of
00:37:50
smartphones to the stability of national
00:37:53
power grids. Just as the 20th century
00:37:56
was defined by oil, the 21st century is
00:38:00
being defined by strategic metals. And
00:38:03
in this new age, those who control the
00:38:05
minerals will control the future.
