00:00:13
So, we have uh Michael Berman with us.
00:00:16
And Michael, uh I apologize. I I forgot
00:00:19
that we've already talked once before.
00:00:22
Uh, and you you're recommended uh Peter
00:00:25
Brandt uh gives you a thumbs up uh as
00:00:28
one of the few guys that he would refer
00:00:31
people to uh in the market. So, how have
00:00:34
you been? It's been a while. Yeah, it's
00:00:37
been about I think it's been about six,
00:00:40
seven months since we spoke last. And
00:00:42
firstly, happy birthday. Oh, thank you.
00:00:44
And and secondly, thank you for the the
00:00:47
invite because you may recall I actually
00:00:50
missed there was an interim uh where I
00:00:53
was to present and for some reason I
00:00:56
think um times got got the better of us.
00:00:59
But anyway, it was actually very nice to
00:01:01
hear so much Aussie talk there. You
00:01:04
talking about the Aussie dollar. Um do
00:01:06
you have a view on it?
00:01:08
Um not really. Um okay. It it it's
00:01:15
um Yeah, I'm going I'm going to I'm
00:01:17
going to reserve. I've got dollar Aussie
00:01:20
dollar exposure already. So I I All
00:01:24
right. All right. Well, write down 6250.
00:01:26
I'm think look at thinking 62 would be a
00:01:29
good entry if we pulled back there. Uh
00:01:31
so what's on the docket for today?
00:01:33
Michael, what do you want to talk about?
00:01:36
So I was just thinking, do you mind if I
00:01:38
share my screen? Not at all. Go ahead.
00:01:40
And then I thought a couple of things
00:01:43
like popped into mind. Okay. Um just
00:01:47
give me a second to get organized
00:01:51
here.
00:01:52
Okay. I think you you probably should
00:01:55
see a screen where it says signal to
00:01:58
noise global macro and newsletter. Is
00:01:59
that right? We've got it. You got it.
00:02:02
Okay. So, two things that came to mind
00:02:05
were um around biases that I I thought,
00:02:11
wow, m maybe I should just um tell you a
00:02:14
little bit about two biases that came to
00:02:17
mind and just let me know as well. Can
00:02:21
you see a PowerPoint presentation that
00:02:23
I've just pulled up? Yeah, got it. Going
00:02:25
pro, the brutal truth about becoming a
00:02:27
full-time trader. Does it have does it
00:02:30
have anything to do with uh this that uh
00:02:35
people to try and sell you the secret to
00:02:38
trading? Uh there is no secret. It's
00:02:41
hard work and living through adversity
00:02:43
and if that scares you, find something
00:02:46
else to do.
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Absolutely. So, while you guys were
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talking um because I I I'll have to
00:02:53
admit I don't trade um like intraday at
00:02:58
the moment like like I did in the past
00:03:00
and but I thought of this I gave this
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talk two weeks ago and I thought there
00:03:05
was one or two slides that might be
00:03:07
interesting for some of you guys here.
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So the the one I wanted to actually talk
00:03:11
about
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was we live in this
00:03:15
hyper this hyped up media world where we
00:03:18
see the stars. The stars get a lot of
00:03:22
air time and and things like that. And I
00:03:24
just wanted to just show you you your
00:03:27
audience um how we tend to extrapolate
00:03:32
from what we see. So just to give you an
00:03:34
idea, the average NBA salary is $10
00:03:37
million per year. Approximately 500
00:03:40
players make it into the NBA. 610
00:03:43
million people play basketball globally.
00:03:45
So the odds are are negligible. But you
00:03:48
know, of course, we see it on TV and you
00:03:50
think if you're half decent as a
00:03:53
basketball player, you're going to make
00:03:54
the big leagues. And it kind of goes
00:03:57
onto tennis and
00:04:01
and I I also show it here as in um the
00:04:06
you know the the traders the top 100
00:04:09
hedge fund managers earned an average of
00:04:11
1.2 two billion and then we see movies
00:04:14
about billions and Wolf of Wall Street
00:04:17
and and one tends to think that it's
00:04:21
easier to achieve this kind of success
00:04:23
than than it really is. So I I just want
00:04:27
people to to not fall for the you know
00:04:31
for the the heavy selling the where they
00:04:34
over glamorize and but you know do you
00:04:38
you follow what I'm saying here that
00:04:41
um we only seen the people who are
00:04:43
successful and we tend to extrapolate
00:04:45
that out to thinking a lot more people
00:04:48
are successful. Now I'm by no means
00:04:50
telling that's because people people
00:04:52
only talk about their successes not
00:04:54
their failures. Exactly. Exactly. So I
00:04:58
mean so there's a survivorship bias.
00:05:00
There's a self-reporting bias as you say
00:05:03
self-report reporting bias would be
00:05:06
where you only talk about your winners.
00:05:08
Um, no one no one reports about or puts
00:05:11
on a leaderboard or on on Twitter or
00:05:15
whatever public forum you're on about
00:05:17
your losers. Well, they tend not to.
00:05:20
They, you know, you there's that
00:05:21
inherent bias. But anyway, I I write a
00:05:25
daily global macro newsletter. It's
00:05:27
free, so anyone can is welcome to to to
00:05:32
subscribe. But I wrote today about a
00:05:34
bias that came to mind and I thought it
00:05:36
would be actually quite apt for your for
00:05:40
your audience. So um I wanted to show
00:05:43
you how easy it is to avoid curve
00:05:45
fitting a trading strategy back test but
00:05:48
still curve fitted. So let me let me
00:05:50
just walk you all walk you through this.
00:05:53
It won't be very technical but uh I'm
00:05:56
sure you guys will follow follow the
00:05:57
idea. So, let's just take a a classic
00:06:01
200 day moving average. And if if the
00:06:05
price is above the 200 day moving
00:06:07
average, you go long. If it's below, you
00:06:09
go short. And we won't go into the
00:06:11
details of of of how you exit and all
00:06:14
that, but basically, that's the
00:06:15
strategy. And I ran it on 12 global
00:06:19
stock indexes going back to 1990. And
00:06:24
um sorry, this is right here. And
00:06:28
oopsie this this is this is the equity
00:06:31
curve that came out. So it's it's a long
00:06:33
this is a long track record. This is 35
00:06:36
years of back testing. And while it's
00:06:39
positive it's it's pretty dismal. I mean
00:06:41
there's it's
00:06:43
1.2% annual return. So nothing too
00:06:46
fancy. But this is something that I
00:06:48
noticed so many people. Now, I don't
00:06:50
know how many people in your audience
00:06:52
are are, let's say, um, systematic
00:06:56
traders, but let's assume there's a fair
00:06:58
amount. Um, what people tend to do is
00:07:02
they will go through the list. Here's
00:07:04
the 12 and they see all the different
00:07:06
results. So, you can see S&P 500, the
00:07:09
NASDAQ, those were those were winners.
00:07:12
The DAX was a winner and so was the this
00:07:15
was the Swiss index. Okay?
00:07:18
and the natural inclin what what people
00:07:21
tend to do is that they say okay well
00:07:25
I'm going to trade these four the green
00:07:28
ones those are the ones that I'm going
00:07:30
to um trade what you do there is you are
00:07:34
you are applying a bias it's a hindsight
00:07:37
bias and that's not the way to go about
00:07:41
a systematic back testing strategy so
00:07:46
yeah here you see Uh yeah, you you
00:07:49
fooling yourself. And I see it over and
00:07:51
over again. People tend to do spend
00:07:54
their whole day back testing and then
00:07:55
they look for the ones that produce good
00:07:58
results and they say, "Okay, that's my
00:08:00
strategy." Now, um you need a more
00:08:02
robust approach to that than than just
00:08:05
that. That I'm not going to go into the
00:08:07
whole ins and outs of that because that
00:08:09
that's a big subject and I guess could
00:08:12
could take a bit of time. But I thought
00:08:14
what I could also I'd like to show you
00:08:17
uh I've
00:08:18
got it's um called research.signal to
00:08:23
noise.news news and basically it's also
00:08:25
free this
00:08:28
and everything that I'm thinking and and
00:08:31
researching and doing I put on this um
00:08:36
I'm in the process of migrating a lot of
00:08:38
stuff a lot of my research that that um
00:08:42
I've built ma mainly quantitative and I
00:08:46
I put it on here I'll just walk you
00:08:47
through a few of these slides um but
00:08:50
basically you you've got over here
00:08:52
different watch lists
00:08:54
and they colorcoded based on a zed
00:08:57
score.
00:08:58
Basically, if they are behaving abnormal
00:09:02
to the way they've typically behaved in
00:09:04
the past, it's a nice huristic way of of
00:09:08
bringing your attention to something
00:09:10
that is is moving a lot relative to its
00:09:14
past. So, for instance, like Bitcoin
00:09:16
might move 2% every day. So, it's like
00:09:19
here one here it is 1%. So it's it's not
00:09:23
even colored
00:09:25
because it's of um it's it's well within
00:09:28
a normal move. Whereas if you've got
00:09:31
something I don't know like a forex
00:09:34
item, Forex would
00:09:37
0.41 is is enough to trigger a um a
00:09:42
color because of of that zed score. So
00:09:45
there's a whole bunch of stuff here I'm
00:09:47
not going to go into. You can play
00:09:49
around. you can look at different things
00:09:52
here um and kind of does some of the
00:09:56
homework for you. Um current draw down
00:10:00
uh of gold is
00:10:04
2.57%. Um but just to talk about some of
00:10:07
the the charts you guys were talking
00:10:10
about earlier. So I I like to I like to
00:10:14
look at things very differently maybe to
00:10:15
some of you guys where you like lots of
00:10:18
um lines and colors. I like everything
00:10:20
clean and neat and nothing on them like
00:10:23
bare bones and naked. Naked. You said
00:10:27
it. All right. All right. Love it.
00:10:29
Naked. Keep your uh keep your shades
00:10:33
drawn. I'll
00:10:35
Okay. So So I mean this is a long chart.
00:10:38
I I tend to look at long charts. Um, I
00:10:41
mean, you
00:10:42
could I do have one year and five year,
00:10:46
but but I typically That was a hell of a
00:10:49
hell of a parabola right there. Yes. So,
00:10:53
it's exactly right. And so, we've had an
00:10:56
incredible run. I I'm I've been saying
00:10:59
for some time now that I I expect 2025,
00:11:03
the S&P to to produce a negative year.
00:11:07
Um, I' I'd love it to be very negative,
00:11:11
but and you know, obviously with this
00:11:14
recent sell off uh from Liberation Day,
00:11:16
I thought we were on our way, but who
00:11:19
knows? We could we could still make one
00:11:21
more high. Um, in uh, you know, I'll
00:11:26
just talk a couple of themes here. I'm
00:11:29
I'm very bearish bonds, so I'm expecting
00:11:32
yields to go higher. this is a 10-year
00:11:34
yield and um for a whole host of
00:11:39
reasons. Blake touched on that earlier
00:11:42
talking about the debt in the US
00:11:45
and how much how many bonds are needed
00:11:48
to be refinanced um over the next 18
00:11:52
months is pretty significant. But um I I
00:11:57
I also thought I'd share some of I'll
00:11:58
just show you a couple of screens here
00:12:00
that that might be of interest to some
00:12:02
of you people who don't want to
00:12:04
necessarily or you don't know where to
00:12:05
find a yield curve. So for instance, you
00:12:08
got the US yield curve. By the way, uh
00:12:10
this everything updates daily. So it's
00:12:13
it's not intraday. It's but I I've
00:12:16
automated it that it it updates daily.
00:12:18
So you can you can see different UK
00:12:21
yield curve, Japan, China, a few things
00:12:24
like that. One of the trades that I've
00:12:26
been pushing for some time and I've been
00:12:29
on the right side of this one is is a
00:12:31
yielding.
00:12:33
So I I've I've been very from way back
00:12:38
in in the inverse part I've been calling
00:12:41
for a a steepening trade. I was at
00:12:44
around over here. I was unsure if we
00:12:47
were still, you know, we might have
00:12:49
still stuck around. I wasn't sure
00:12:51
exactly where we were going. Um, but I I
00:12:54
was very convinced that we were going to
00:12:56
steepen. So, you know, that's that's
00:12:58
proved right. And and if you if you go
00:13:00
even further out, it's even steeper if
00:13:02
you look at the 30-year over the two
00:13:04
years. So, the these this is one
00:13:06
particular trade that I've I've been
00:13:08
very interested in. Um would you call
00:13:10
this move would you call this move uh
00:13:13
almost uh embryionic just starting first
00:13:17
inning second inning? Yeah. So I we we
00:13:20
sitting currently at 54 basis points up
00:13:23
here. I I see us probably there's
00:13:26
there's scope to go I I would say 100
00:13:30
basis points. So we could go uh
00:13:33
somewhere up here. I mean we could go
00:13:34
all the way up there. I I I wouldn't be
00:13:37
so bold right now to say we're going all
00:13:39
the way up there, but but yeah, we we
00:13:42
I'd say we we are around halfway of
00:13:45
where where I would expect um where I'd
00:13:48
expect things to go. The one
00:13:51
thing we've been hearing a lot of noise
00:13:54
about Japanese bonds the 10 yield yeah
00:13:58
can't really see it that that closely
00:14:00
but we had yields that we haven't you
00:14:02
know this was prior to the JFC the GFC
00:14:05
so um you know I think and and one must
00:14:10
remember that the Japanese debt to GDP
00:14:13
ratio is double what it's more than
00:14:15
double what the US is so a higher
00:14:19
um yield on their bonds is going to be
00:14:21
pretty devastating to the economy. Um is
00:14:25
that uh the canary in the coal mine for
00:14:27
a bare market what's happening in Japan?
00:14:30
I think I think yeah I think I think
00:14:34
what's happening is you know we've all
00:14:37
heard about kicking the can further down
00:14:40
the road. Yeah. There there is a limit
00:14:42
to how far you can kick this can. And
00:14:45
you know if you're a student of economic
00:14:47
history there was a great
00:14:49
book here somewhere th this time is
00:14:53
different or or this time's not
00:14:55
different I can't remember the way it's
00:14:56
worded again but but basically saying
00:14:58
that if you look at hundreds of years of
00:15:01
economic history when you've got a GDP
00:15:03
ratio above a 100 debt to GDP ratio over
00:15:08
100% it's normally spelt the end so you
00:15:12
know it doesn't mean it's going to roll
00:15:14
over tomorrow or or a year from now. But
00:15:17
it's it's and we've passed that and
00:15:19
Japan's passed 200%. So the these these
00:15:22
are the chickens coming home to roost.
00:15:25
So I think one's got to be aware of
00:15:26
that. What what can you can you tell me
00:15:29
why junk bonds
00:15:32
um have recovered so much better uh
00:15:36
HYG even the corporates than the
00:15:38
treasuries?
00:15:40
Yeah. So to me, junk is is another
00:15:45
equity. The way the way the junk trades
00:15:48
is and just like we got this big bounce
00:15:52
um in
00:15:54
equities, we've seen it, we've seen it
00:15:56
with junk, but but my if I if I actually
00:15:59
go back here, if we look at corporate
00:16:04
um it's almost like the fake equality
00:16:07
has shifted from sovereigns to Yeah.
00:16:10
John. Yeah. Yeah. It's it's ridiculous.
00:16:13
It
00:16:14
it's, you know, once again, very hard to
00:16:17
time these these things, but if you're a
00:16:20
value player or if you just think a
00:16:23
little bit longer term, it's
00:16:24
unsustainable where you got such
00:16:27
tiny spread premiums and you just need a
00:16:31
few bankruptcies and and these things
00:16:34
are going to kind of take off. In fact,
00:16:37
I just wanted to show you this. we see
00:16:39
we've seen some big movement in term so
00:16:43
the triple C the rail junk is is
00:16:46
actually trading
00:16:48
um at a significant premium to the other
00:16:52
let's say less quality corporate debt
00:16:54
but but it's still if you look at it
00:16:56
overall um
00:16:58
the it's it's still way too low so this
00:17:02
if you look at this chart I've inverted
00:17:04
the the spreads the the the corporate
00:17:07
spreads are It's a blue line. It's
00:17:10
inverted. We we were very
00:17:13
um close to alltime well not alltime
00:17:16
lows but very in a very very low spread
00:17:19
environment. But you can see there's a
00:17:21
very strong correlation with the S&P
00:17:23
500. So um yeah if if S&P if either one
00:17:29
of these roll over the other one will
00:17:31
follow is likely to follow suit. Um I
00:17:35
wanted to everything's about the April
00:17:38
lows holding isn't it?
00:17:40
The whole ball game is that the lows we
00:17:44
had in April in a lot of things.
00:17:47
Absolutely. So um I wanted to show you
00:17:51
over here um some random charts I wanted
00:17:54
to show you. So here here's a couple of
00:17:57
things that you know that I I swear by.
00:18:01
Um the 2-year is a better Fed chairman
00:18:05
than Jerome Pal, Bernanki,
00:18:09
Greenspan. Basically, the the Fed funds
00:18:12
rate follows the 2-year. So, you can you
00:18:16
can see how strong this correlation is.
00:18:18
And um I've got it here that the Fed's
00:18:22
slightly behind the curve in terms of
00:18:24
where the bond market is, the 2-year
00:18:26
bond market. doesn't mean I I think that
00:18:29
the Fed should be cutting any further.
00:18:31
It it just imply this is what it implies
00:18:34
that the Fed is likely to cut further. I
00:18:36
mean, if I I would think they should do
00:18:39
the opposite because I have a view on
00:18:41
inflation that is um I I believe tariffs
00:18:46
and um the current inflation is is not
00:18:51
going away. It's probably going to get
00:18:52
worse. And I've got this analog that um
00:18:55
I thought was I'm not normally I'm not
00:18:59
normally the guy who who is into these
00:19:02
analoges. But this is to me this is the
00:19:05
way I'm seeing it. So the the green line
00:19:08
is back from 1966 to 1982 where we saw
00:19:12
that massive inflation and you you can
00:19:15
see like there was there was a there was
00:19:17
a peak another peak and then the big
00:19:20
peak and I I suspect we are over here
00:19:24
and we've got another big peak to come
00:19:27
and I mean that would be pretty
00:19:28
devastating. We can all feel the cost of
00:19:31
living pinch at the moment. So, um, if
00:19:34
this holds up, that'll be a pretty
00:19:36
devastating. What What gets us to the
00:19:39
peak? It's got to be uh uh uh either
00:19:42
Paul uh giving up uh focusing on
00:19:46
economic weakness rather than
00:19:48
employment.
00:19:50
I mean, rather than inflation.
00:19:53
Yeah. So, I I think the printing press
00:19:56
is going to come out in full swing um to
00:19:59
to mop up any of the debt that's the new
00:20:04
debt that's rolling over and going to be
00:20:06
issued. We'll see quantitative easing
00:20:08
again. Um which is going to be
00:20:10
inflationary. We've got these trade wars
00:20:13
that are going on. Um the fact that the
00:20:16
market initially rallied because of a
00:20:19
delayed because of Europe delaying sorry
00:20:23
that Trump delayed. Yeah.
00:20:26
We still got to I I don't think that's
00:20:29
going away. There will be a deal and and
00:20:32
there will be inflation from that from
00:20:34
that high tariff. Yeah. Do you believe
00:20:37
there were there were problems uh with
00:20:40
uh the economy and market structure
00:20:44
prior to tariffs and that if we even if
00:20:49
tariff deals even if trade deals are
00:20:51
done it doesn't uh address the problems
00:20:56
we had prior and what do you think those
00:20:59
what do you think those problems were
00:21:00
prior?
00:21:02
So look, I I I'm I'm very anti the
00:21:05
tariffs for the simple reason. Um it was
00:21:09
it was working. Yes, there were trade
00:21:11
there was some trade imbalances, but at
00:21:13
the end of the day, there was a there's
00:21:15
an economy, let's say, in China that's
00:21:18
able to produce stuff a lot cheaper than
00:21:20
the US is able to do it. And the US was
00:21:24
a beneficiary and so is China. and um
00:21:28
and to suddenly overnight expect all
00:21:32
that um
00:21:35
expertise to be able to be done in the
00:21:38
US is is it's impossible to to to
00:21:42
replicate overnight what China has been
00:21:46
I saw Yeah. I saw to make an Apple
00:21:48
phone, which isn't even possible here in
00:21:50
the US. Yeah. That if they were able to
00:21:53
do it, the phone would cost almost four
00:21:55
grand. Yeah, I saw that. I
00:21:58
mean, crazy. Crazy. So funny. My
00:22:01
brother-in-law called me and when he saw
00:22:04
my about six, seven months ago, I put
00:22:07
out a trade I Okay, so this was my trade
00:22:10
idea was to go long China short the US.
00:22:14
This is about six months ago. Oh, that
00:22:16
was huge. Yeah, it was. It was. So, if
00:22:20
you look at this black line here, the
00:22:21
ratio, it was it was around here, but I
00:22:24
was too nervous to put the trade on by
00:22:26
going long Shanghai. So, I went long the
00:22:29
Hang Singh. And so, I put it out here.
00:22:34
My brother-in-law said, "You're crazy."
00:22:36
Like, and he gave me a whole list of
00:22:38
good reasons why China's got problems.
00:22:41
But, and I don't disagree. China's got
00:22:44
massive problems. But I felt the gap had
00:22:46
widened too far in terms of where the US
00:22:49
had gone relative to China. And China
00:22:51
plays the long game and is able to, you
00:22:56
know, juice the economy and do things
00:22:59
that a a democratic country is unable to
00:23:02
do in the short term. So that that was
00:23:05
my view. And then I I had a stop loss
00:23:07
over here and I thought, "Oh my gosh,
00:23:09
we're going to get tested. I'm going to
00:23:10
get stopped out." And it's it's actually
00:23:14
the trade's gone my way almost. It's
00:23:17
been a great trade. Yeah. So, and and
00:23:19
and I'm holding it because I'm not I'm
00:23:22
not I don't think we there yet. Um there
00:23:26
was I wanted to share I I do have a
00:23:29
question from uh one of our community
00:23:32
members
00:23:33
RJP. Um he's thinking ahead. What are
00:23:36
the chances that AI increases
00:23:39
productivity and causes
00:23:43
deflation? Is that too far ahead? No.
00:23:46
Great question.
00:23:48
Um,
00:23:51
so the the
00:23:55
to support the the market where we are
00:23:58
right now, where where are we here? In
00:24:02
fact, here's a maybe a good a great
00:24:03
segue into this particular chart. So in
00:24:06
terms of economics, what what needs to
00:24:09
happen is productivity needs to in
00:24:14
increase um to enable more economic
00:24:18
growth and there's no question that AI
00:24:21
is a huge productivity enhancer. It's
00:24:26
also the the the flip side of that is
00:24:29
that it's going to probably lead to a
00:24:32
lot of unemployment, right? and and and
00:24:37
so obviously with unemployment there
00:24:40
will be less demand and and there's a
00:24:43
good chance that we'll get some
00:24:45
deflation. So So yeah, short answer is I
00:24:50
think deflation's definitely potential.
00:24:53
We're not there yet
00:24:55
and and there's still too many um other
00:24:59
factors. So that's about a few years out
00:25:02
before we really start thinking about
00:25:04
it. It's really interesting and and
00:25:07
without going too far down this
00:25:09
particular tangent, you know, Kanes
00:25:11
spoke in in the 40s about he saw a world
00:25:17
where we would only work I think 20
00:25:20
hours a week maximum. No, was it less
00:25:22
than that? I'm trying to um maybe even
00:25:25
less about 15 hours a week. and because
00:25:29
of the productivity that things would
00:25:30
enhance and the cost the standard of
00:25:32
living would grow so well was that we'd
00:25:35
have so much more leisure time. The
00:25:37
opposite has happened. I I think we all
00:25:39
work a lot a lot more. Um so I'm I'm not
00:25:44
sure what you know it's a deep question
00:25:46
that what happens with unemployment or
00:25:50
we able to does is there so much
00:25:52
productivity that Yeah. All right. Let
00:25:54
me get a little more short term. Let me
00:25:57
get a little more short term and we'll
00:25:58
wrap it. anything any georisk uh keep
00:26:02
you up at night as uh you know kind of a
00:26:05
exogenous event that could throw your
00:26:07
trades into uh you know
00:26:12
big I I would say that we we've never
00:26:16
been this I mean
00:26:19
geopolitically I mean the tensions are
00:26:22
there are a number of major wars taking
00:26:25
place as we speak and I'm talking
00:26:27
physical wars and then you got the big
00:26:29
trade wars and um when two superpowers
00:26:34
like China and the US are facing off
00:26:36
like they have been uh
00:26:40
anything yeah the market is priced to
00:26:44
perfection. I think there's every
00:26:45
possibility that things could escalate
00:26:49
further. Iran's a threat. There's
00:26:51
there's a lot of things that are are are
00:26:54
boiling over. I also think um
00:26:57
socioeconomically you know the halves
00:26:58
and the have nots h there could be more
00:27:01
instability. So I think one's got to
00:27:03
keep your wits about you. I think a
00:27:05
market price to perfection is dangerous
00:27:08
and yeah keep then be very shortterm and
00:27:12
also be very long-term at the same so
00:27:15
small risks for the short term and and
00:27:18
give yourself a a wide birth on the long
00:27:22
term return of capital rather return on
00:27:26
capital in this environment. Huh. A and
00:27:28
if you if people are on this call still
00:27:32
on this call if there's one like if
00:27:34
there's one message I like to give out
00:27:35
to people who are new and and even if
00:27:39
you're not so new in the game is that
00:27:41
keep your keep your expectations
00:27:45
realistic. Um I I ran founded a I
00:27:50
co-founded a a fintech company. We were
00:27:52
analytics company. We had 100,000
00:27:55
trading accounts connected to our
00:27:57
platform. So, I've seen a lot of trading
00:28:00
accounts, a lot of performance. I I've
00:28:03
incubated over 200 traders. And
00:28:07
everyone's got these big expectations.
00:28:09
And the minute you play for that big
00:28:11
stuff, you're likely to blow up. And if
00:28:14
you can stay in the game, you got a
00:28:16
chance. And rather lower expectations
00:28:19
and stay in the game. Be a grinder.
00:28:23
Yeah. grind it out. That's what all the
00:28:25
big guys do. They grind it out. You'll
00:28:27
never know how good you are. You'll
00:28:28
never know how good you are if you blow
00:28:30
up and you give it up and
00:28:32
you That's a regret. Yeah. Michael
00:28:37
Burman. Uh great to talk to you again.
00:28:40
How do people keep in touch with you,
00:28:41
Michael? Uh go to your website. Uh the
00:28:45
best the best would be to go to the
00:28:48
website signal to noise.news news and
00:28:51
I'll respond to um you know you can also
00:28:54
go on on the Twitter the X account is
00:28:59
I'm not that active on on on X but yeah
00:29:03
feel free to reach out I'll email you
00:29:05
back no problem all right uh uh it looks
00:29:09
like you're really getting in shape on
00:29:10
that bottom picture down there you're
00:29:13
really ripped you see it still sharing
00:29:16
the screen I wish that was
00:29:21
Anyway, anyway, there it is. There's
00:29:24
There's Michael after the close. So, uh,
00:29:27
all right, man. So, great uh talking to
00:29:30
you, Michael. Well, let's get back
00:29:31
together in the summer. See how things
00:29:33
are going. Enjoy your birthday. All
00:29:36
right. Thank Thank you. Remember,
00:29:39
everyone, don't just count your testing,
00:29:41
your back testing, count your blessings.
00:29:44
Uh, appreciate the happy birthday
00:29:47
wishes. Uh, it's all bonus time now,
00:29:51
bro. So, thank you everyone. See it for
00:29:54
turn Well, today was turnaround Tuesday.
00:29:56
Uh, anyway, I'll figure out what day of
00:29:59
the week it is later. And have a great
00:30:02
day trading. Adios. See you,
00:30:06
Glenn. Michael is great. Nuno, thank
00:30:09
you. Adios, everyone.
00:30:12
Hey traders, this is Blake Marorrow with
00:30:14
Forex Analytics. Thanks for stopping by
00:30:16
our YouTube channel. Don't forget to
00:30:17
like these videos, share them, and
00:30:20
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00:30:21
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00:30:26
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00:30:29
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