00:00:00
I think this is interesting because this
00:00:01
goes along with your expectation too a
00:00:03
top in 2026 or maybe the end of 2026 to
00:00:06
then last all the way as we can see
00:00:08
there at the bottom is the 2032 early
00:00:11
early 2030s do you have any thoughts on
00:00:12
this a lot of people are predicting S&P
00:00:15
6000 which it may happen I said we're
00:00:17
predicting Dow
00:00:19
6,000 okay so yes we're really really
00:00:22
bearish so I think this being the
00:00:25
biggest one of all the down downdraft
00:00:28
could be stunning ly Swift like a year a
00:00:32
year or two I I think they're right I
00:00:34
I've been okay I've been too bearish no
00:00:37
question about
00:00:39
[Music]
00:00:46
it this is really fascinating uh to me
00:00:50
Bob and I I think a lot of our uh
00:00:52
viewers and subscribers uh to our
00:00:54
YouTube channel have seen this before
00:00:55
I've made a video on this this chart
00:00:58
actually supports your overall bearish
00:01:00
case now from the this a banner cycle as
00:01:03
I'm sure you know about Samuel Banner
00:01:05
devised this cycle back in the late uh
00:01:07
19th century and a lot of his calls
00:01:10
actually back in over a 100 years ago
00:01:12
were correct he called the 1929 uh sorry
00:01:15
the 1930s Great Depression just he got
00:01:18
it wrong by about a year or two uh but
00:01:20
essentially he was right as you can see
00:01:21
1927 uh the market crashed top occurred
00:01:24
1929 1945 1965 these are all correct the
00:01:28
the biggest one to me that's interesting
00:01:29
is the the crash he was absolutely
00:01:31
correct about uh by the way these years
00:01:34
Samuel Benner said these um mean the
00:01:36
completion of the years not the
00:01:37
beginning so when you when we see these
00:01:39
years I just want to make sure our
00:01:40
YouTube viewers know this the years do
00:01:42
not mean the beginning of those years
00:01:44
means the end so for example he called
00:01:47
the the end of 1999 being the top very
00:01:50
close to the doc bubble crash which
00:01:53
lasted all the way uh to the 2000s early
00:01:56
2000s and the 2007 yeah there it is
00:01:59
right there the 2007 top which then
00:02:02
dropped and crashed that was of course
00:02:04
the great uh recession as we know and
00:02:07
the the end of 2019 that would be the
00:02:09
covid one uh but but you can see here
00:02:11
according to his cycle 2026 the end of
00:02:14
2026 is his view well was his cycle top
00:02:19
uh for the stock market by the way there
00:02:20
could be it could be a year or two off
00:02:22
but this I think this is interesting
00:02:23
because this goes along with your
00:02:24
expectation too a top in 2026 or maybe
00:02:27
the end of 2026 to then last all the way
00:02:30
as we can see there the bottom is the
00:02:32
2032 early early 2030s do you have any
00:02:35
thoughts on this I just find this
00:02:36
amusing I I mean it's okay if you don't
00:02:38
have anything to say about it but I just
00:02:39
want I just wonder if you have any any
00:02:40
thoughts on it sure in in the um back in
00:02:43
1978 AJ Frost uh did a version of this
00:02:47
very chart really he called it the
00:02:49
Benner Fibonacci chart because he F okay
00:02:52
offset it slightly to fit certain
00:02:55
Fibonacci periods yeah um now you can
00:02:59
also look at this chart and look at the
00:03:01
major bottom in 1985 that was off by
00:03:03
three years it was yeah at the same time
00:03:06
in September 85 I remember like like it
00:03:09
was yesterday I was the only um bullish
00:03:13
adviser in September 85 um in the market
00:03:17
vean tally I thought it was a series of
00:03:20
ones and twos on the upside and
00:03:23
everybody else was saying oh it looks
00:03:24
toppy you know it's blah blah blah I
00:03:26
said no man this is getting ready to go
00:03:27
vertical on the upside like said all the
00:03:30
advisors were extremely bearish at that
00:03:32
time so better kind of had it right in a
00:03:35
way people were still really really
00:03:37
negative in September of 1985 and then
00:03:40
the market absolutely took off on the
00:03:42
upside so he's and if you look at the
00:03:44
2012 lad that that was off by three
00:03:46
years as well because it was to 09 but
00:03:49
as I I mentioned in our earlier
00:03:50
discussion that was um also the low in
00:03:54
real estate was in 2012 2011 2012 the
00:03:57
low in Dow gold was in 2011 as well and
00:04:00
kind of stayed around that area until
00:04:02
late 2012 you know that's when gold
00:04:04
topped out and we said at the time last
00:04:06
chance to sell your gold so everything
00:04:08
is counterintuitive yeah I think I think
00:04:10
this this Banner thing is pretty
00:04:12
interesting but I would uh not bet all
00:04:16
my money
00:04:17
sure you know 26 maybe we top in 2024
00:04:20
and we do a one down and a two up for
00:04:23
wave a 2026 and that's when The Real
00:04:25
Crash happens I me there all kinds of
00:04:27
possibilities when you when you studi
00:04:28
the Benner chart and and what happened
00:04:30
in reality I still say all my toys are
00:04:33
in the front yard you can play with them
00:04:34
I'm not g to play
00:04:37
I'm I couldn't be less interested in
00:04:39
owning a single share of stock and and
00:04:41
in fact I think if if you're bold you
00:04:43
know you you should every now and then
00:04:46
be betting on the downside when things
00:04:47
are extreme on a short-term basis you
00:04:49
know on a five-day basis or something
00:04:51
like that so even though you've got you
00:04:53
know numbers up at 20 you know two years
00:04:55
from now as I likely top I'm just going
00:04:58
to stick with saying you know we're were
00:04:59
bearish right now you know tops in
00:05:02
October are not very common but uh
00:05:04
there's one that that I remember quite
00:05:06
well which was October
00:05:08
1973 yeah the Dow got back very close to
00:05:11
its all-time high from January and
00:05:13
people were calling for new highs um and
00:05:17
you can kind of liken that to the um
00:05:19
NASDAQ 100 which topped in July still
00:05:22
has so uh you don't get it very often
00:05:25
but I tell you what when the one time it
00:05:27
did happen in October top the decline
00:05:30
was very Swift in November December of
00:05:33
that year and of course led to the the
00:05:35
big bottom of December
00:05:37
1974 um 14 months later so I you know
00:05:42
all these things are kind of little yeah
00:05:43
they're interesting they're interesting
00:05:45
you know is it seasonal this we're in an
00:05:48
election year does that matter um you
00:05:50
know Benner cycle four-year cycle um but
00:05:53
they're really just talking points and I
00:05:56
think the extremity of of optimism and
00:05:58
the strug strugling recently of the of
00:06:01
the market to make new highs you know
00:06:02
from October 14th through uh
00:06:05
yesterday uh you've had different
00:06:07
indexes make rally highs you know like
00:06:10
100 I think was on the 14th and as that
00:06:12
composite was yesterday and then we had
00:06:14
the the Dow in the in the middle of that
00:06:16
on October 17th if I recall and the S&P
00:06:19
you know um a couple days later so
00:06:22
they're all kind of hitting highs and
00:06:24
they're spreading it out a little bit
00:06:25
and um I mean they might overcome it but
00:06:27
to me that's an exhaustion kind of
00:06:29
signal
00:06:30
is it correct that once this bull market
00:06:31
tops which I think you are correct I
00:06:34
think a lot of people who criticize you
00:06:36
they don't understand they're very
00:06:37
impatient because oh well you said this
00:06:39
last year they don't they don't really
00:06:40
get the whole thing they don't
00:06:42
understand the big look I I think
00:06:44
they're right I I've been okay I've been
00:06:46
too bearish no question about it uh but
00:06:50
I think it's been a practical and
00:06:52
reasonable bearishness given the en uh
00:06:56
not only the structure but also the
00:06:57
background of everything that we've
00:07:00
we've talked about but essentially just
00:07:01
to finish with this point with this
00:07:03
question is it correct I have this
00:07:05
correct that uh your view is that when
00:07:07
eventually we fall into a bare Market
00:07:09
sometime in this decade probably uh and
00:07:12
when this crash eventually begins in the
00:07:15
next several years of this decade again
00:07:17
not now probably but sometime probably
00:07:19
could begin in the next few years and
00:07:21
eventually this big major crash people
00:07:23
are probably wondering okay but how far
00:07:25
how low can we fall how much of a drop
00:07:28
are we expecting am I correct that
00:07:29
you're expecting the Dow to drop below
00:07:32
2,000 to about a th000 on this chart uh
00:07:35
so it's going to be a heavy drop I mean
00:07:37
we're just over 40,000 we're approaching
00:07:39
45k approximately but is am I correct in
00:07:41
saying that your expectation is that for
00:07:43
a longer term reversal downtrend bare
00:07:46
Market to fall below 2,000 on the Dow am
00:07:49
I right your chart here you see where
00:07:51
you have your blue for yeah that was Dow
00:07:55
6,000 so what I've said in recent issues
00:07:57
is a lot of people are predicting S&P
00:07:59
6,000 which it may happen I said we're
00:08:02
predicting Dow
00:08:03
6,000 okay so yes we're really really
00:08:07
beish and and um yeah it's hard to say
00:08:11
because we're as I said earlier we are
00:08:13
dealing with a a measuring unit that's
00:08:17
completely elastic and if they screw up
00:08:20
the measuring unit it may never see
00:08:22
those low levels now in real terms it's
00:08:25
going to get there it's already there um
00:08:27
the Dow is at 300
00:08:30
in terms of gold I mean think about that
00:08:33
it's not you know 4,000 it's not at
00:08:36
3,000 it's a 300 so if we' kept if we
00:08:40
stayed on the gold standard uh the Dow
00:08:42
would be currently 300 and everybody
00:08:44
would know we' never had a bull market
00:08:45
or we certainly since 1999 when the Dow
00:08:48
gold R ratio topped out so you know when
00:08:51
you say you know could it go to these
00:08:53
numbers well yeah but unfortunately
00:08:56
we've got human beings with their hand
00:08:58
on a throttle that can say well let's
00:08:59
let's make a few more trillion of these
00:09:01
things let's make a quadrillion of them
00:09:03
we don't care and then of course they'd
00:09:05
say well I never got to 6,000 um I'd say
00:09:08
yeah well it really did you just
00:09:09
couldn't see it so um there are nuances
00:09:12
that we're not going to try to get too
00:09:13
too fancy with but I do believe that
00:09:17
when I don't think it's an if I think
00:09:18
it's when we get our debt implosion and
00:09:21
junk bonds go you know go to zero and
00:09:23
and many corporations are going to go
00:09:25
out business a lot of stocks are going
00:09:26
to go to zero um we're going to have a
00:09:28
debt implosion at that time and I think
00:09:30
even in dollar terms we will have a
00:09:35
significant history making fall in stock
00:09:38
prices I want to talk about this now so
00:09:41
uh this is from 2009 this is just
00:09:43
standard hypothetical model for uh the
00:09:46
eled waves of the stock market uh so I
00:09:49
have it there at 2025 doesn't really
00:09:50
matter but sometime sometime in the next
00:09:52
couple of years from 2009 and this is
00:09:54
the and this is from the 1800s so I put
00:09:57
my red arrow there again just a bit bit
00:10:00
of fun uh I think people might find this
00:10:03
interesting um so I put my potential as
00:10:06
to where we are now where are we in the
00:10:08
big picture from 1800s there is a 1929
00:10:12
uh crash and then 1932 low and there we
00:10:14
are my view is that we could potentially
00:10:17
top if not this year the next year or
00:10:19
2026 but you're more exped I think I
00:10:21
think your view is that we're we're
00:10:22
already in the very final stages right
00:10:24
there in the the final weave five right
00:10:26
there so yeah right or wrong and and
00:10:28
we've well for a while we think we're
00:10:30
right at the top and one final question
00:10:32
about the stock market before we go on
00:10:33
the next one which is how long could the
00:10:36
next major bare market last I mean I'm
00:10:40
assuming it's going to be some kind of
00:10:41
ratio of the bull market so some kind of
00:10:43
a Fibonacci ratio of the previous bull
00:10:45
market so I'm assuming at least it could
00:10:47
last a decade right I mean 10 years well
00:10:50
you see where your bottom is on the
00:10:51
lower left of your chart that was
00:10:54
1784 uh the peak prior to that was 1720
00:10:57
so the right right supercycle Wave 2
00:11:00
lasted 64 years that's a long time uh as
00:11:03
you said earlier and we we discussed
00:11:05
second waves versus fourth waves and
00:11:07
that second wave was a zigzag so this
00:11:09
fourth wave is probably going to be a
00:11:11
triangle or a flat or or a double three
00:11:13
which means it's going to last longer
00:11:14
than 64 years I think it's going to last
00:11:17
about a hundred years of time when
00:11:19
people are like how could we ever
00:11:21
believed so much in the stock market
00:11:23
yeah back then um and it'll be you know
00:11:25
people go back to work and they'll do
00:11:27
things that are practical and valuable
00:11:28
to do for their fellow man instead of
00:11:30
moving money around uh so I think it's
00:11:32
going to be very very long however
00:11:34
there's an interesting phenomenon which
00:11:35
I pointed out um when the stock market
00:11:38
got uh made a top in 1835 it went down
00:11:41
to 1842 that was a seven-year drop yeah
00:11:45
when the stock market got even more uh
00:11:48
hyped up in 1929 it crashed into 1932
00:11:51
that was three years less than three
00:11:53
years yeah shorter amount of time even
00:11:55
though it was a higher uh a greater
00:11:58
overvaluation in 1720 it was a south sea
00:12:01
bubble they called it the market crashed
00:12:03
from 1720 to 1722 that's only two years
00:12:06
and that was a grand supercycle top now
00:12:07
that was only wave a but it was still an
00:12:09
amazing drop yeah yeah so I think this
00:12:12
being the biggest one of all the down
00:12:15
downdraft could be stunningly Swift like
00:12:19
a year a year or two uh for for the
00:12:22
a-wave for the a wve right and that's
00:12:24
one reason why you know the central
00:12:26
bankers and all the Wise Guys and who
00:12:28
passed laws in Congress so that they
00:12:30
government can lend and and guarantee
00:12:32
more more loans um will be caught so
00:12:35
flat-footed they won't know what to do
00:12:36
and they'll be like a deer in headlights
00:12:38
and and we'll just get the whole thing
00:12:39
over in a very fast situation so I think
00:12:42
those are what history is telling us the
00:12:45
future is a whole other matter we don't
00:12:46
know what the future is going to bring
00:12:48
but studying all the previous collapses
00:12:50
I can tell you that this one is set up
00:12:52
to be very very
00:12:53
Swift I I think that's a very good point
00:12:55
uh about a big a-wave down like could
00:12:58
happened in the 1929 Wall Street Crash
00:13:00
October 1929 big move down in the a-wave
00:13:04
then a fake rally in a b-wave a b-wave
00:13:07
fake rally which gets everyone bullish
00:13:09
again and then boom seawave very deep
00:13:12
very devastating and painful seawave
00:13:15
taking a significantly lower about right
00:13:18
right so it's it's something like that
00:13:19
well yeah I mean I my guess it is it'll
00:13:21
be a triangle I'm kind of mapped it out
00:13:23
as a okay interesting that's really
00:13:25
interesting waves is of very very Swift
00:13:28
and in Flats is the c-wave that's Swift
00:13:30
so I think the AWA is more Swift and
00:13:32
that tells me it's more likely to be a
00:13:33
triangle all right guys make sure you go
00:13:35
ahead and join Bob's newsletter B
00:13:37
practice newsletter that's his financial
00:13:39
forecast service which includes his elwe
00:13:41
theorist and the financial forecast and
00:13:43
the short-term update by the way you get
00:13:44
access to all of this for only $7 for
00:13:46
one month trial go ahead and check it
00:13:48
out I'll put the link for you guys in
00:13:50
the description again that's Elliot
00:13:51
wave.com alesio I'll repeat it again El
00:13:54
wave.com for/ alesio get access to
00:13:57
everything thank thank you very much
00:13:58
indeed for again agreeing to do this
00:14:00
webinar and thank you so much for being
00:14:01
a sport and staying longer than uh we
00:14:03
agreed I really want to thank you one
00:14:05
more time appreciate my pleasure my
00:14:07
pleasure have a have a great uh rest of
00:14:09
fall cheers thank you very much Bob I
00:14:11
appreciate it
00:14:14
[Music]
00:14:20
[Music]
