Murad Mahmudov - The Memecoin Supercycle - TOKEN2049 Singapore 2024

00:21:17
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nqzwdGxTGc

Resumen

TLDRThe mcoin supercycle is a phenomenon where meme coins are significantly outperforming other crypto categories. This trend is driven by both internal dynamics within the crypto market, such as token overproduction, inflated altcoin valuations, and lack of retail benefit from tech altcoins, as well as external factors like economic inequality, inflation, and societal shifts towards online communities. Meme coins capitalize on these elements by creating strong, passionate communities that function as tokenized entities, more focused on cultural and social engagement than traditional tech utility. Meme coins outshine tech tokens because they provide what retail investors look for: simplicity, excitement, and community. They eschew the need for technical utility and instead offer identity, fun, and potential financial gain, embodying decentralized spirit and challenging established market norms. This has led to meme coins becoming increasingly dominant in market performance metrics, with predictions of further growth and influence. The video outlines that meme coins are positioned as not just competitors to tech altcoins, but as better investments given their focus on community and simpler product offerings. As factors like AI threaten jobs and societal issues deepen, meme coins are expected to continue their rise as cultural and financial outlets for investors seeking more than just technological innovation. For investors, the key is to find meme coins that can build strong, cult-like communities with fair token distribution and strong participation. As the crypto space evolves, meme coins are predicted to capture a larger share of the market and even draw in traditional financial players.

Para llevar

  • πŸ“ˆ Meme coins are currently outperforming other crypto categories, marking a supercycle in their favor.
  • πŸš€ The era of all crypto assets moving up in unison is over; meme coins dominate due to strong community engagement.
  • πŸ’₯ The overproduction and high valuation of altcoins make meme coins attractive alternatives for retail investors.
  • 🌍 External pressures, such as inflation and societal changes, contribute to the rise of meme coins as new cultural and financial outlets.
  • 🧱 Meme coins challenge the notion that crypto assets must be utility-based, focusing instead on community and social value.
  • πŸ”— Meme coins are seen as better products than tech altcoins due to their simpler focus on community dynamics.
  • πŸ‘₯ The success of meme coins relies on building cult-like communities that align with cultural trends and collective engagement.
  • πŸ“Š Investment strategies should seek meme coins with fair distribution and genuine community-led growth.
  • 🎯 Meme coins offer higher volatility and excitement, making them appealing to those seeking quick market wins.
  • πŸ•ŠοΈ Meme coins act as a form of cultural rebellion, prioritizing identity and belonging over traditional monetary values.

CronologΓ­a

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The presenter discusses the current trend in the cryptocurrency market known as the 'mcoin super cycle.' Memecoins have been outperforming other crypto categories, highlighting a shift where the era of unified cryptocurrency movements has ended. The market now features selective performance, with memecoins leading the charge. The presenter argues that altcoin price appreciations are primarily confined to private rounds, leaving retail investors as exit liquidity upon public listing at inflated valuations. The intrinsic shortcomings of altcoins are discussed, indicating a lack of viable product-market fit and a dependence on speculative markets rather than genuine technological advancements.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Memecoins like Doge, Shib, and others are highlighted as having already achieved substantial market valuations. The talk emphasizes that the crypto industry is masking as a software production industry while primarily being a token production industry. An identified issue with most new token launches is the concentration of tokens in the hands of insiders, which destroys community trust. The presenter underscores the difference in focus between retail investors and the technological developments in crypto, suggesting that memecoins cater more to retail interests which center around entertainment and community, rather than technological innovations.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    The presenter argues that memecoins offer more than speculative value, providing a sense of fun, identity, and belonging, competing against technologically-based altcoins. The meme token phenomenon reflects broader socio-economic changes such as inflation and inequality, which contribute to their appeal. Retail investors are drawn to memecoins because they mirror a communal investment model, unlike the tech-centric altcoins. Memecoins are described as tokenized communities that utilize memes and narratives for market traction, contrasting with altcoins that allegedly mask as tech-driven initiatives while being similar in mimetic appeal.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:21:17

    Predictions for the growth of memecoins include reaching significant market capitalizations, with several expected to top the crypto market lists. Memecoins are characterized as simplifying investment compared to other complex crypto assets, making them more accessible and aligned with retail investor psychology. As traditional narratives surrounding altcoins falter, memecoins capture market interest by being straightforward and emotionally resonant. The market is seeing a shift towards valuing simplicity, community, and speculation over technical complexity. The presentation ends with a call to embrace belief and simplicity over trading and technical analysis.

Ver mΓ‘s

Mapa mental

VΓ­deo de preguntas y respuestas

  • What is the mcoin supercycle and why is it occurring?

    The mcoin supercycle refers to the significant outperformance of meme coins in the crypto market. It is happening due to a combination of internal and external factors, including the overproduction of new tokens, inflated altcoin valuations, and the role of meme coins as a counterattack against tech altcoins.

  • Why are meme coins outperforming other crypto categories?

    Meme coins are outperforming because they require less hype or technology, attract retail investors, and capitalize on the emotional and cultural aspects of communities. They are also fully circulating and have no unlocks, making them more appealing over tech altcoins.

  • What internal factors contribute to the mcoin supercycle?

    Internal factors include overproduction of tokens, inflated altcoin valuations, and venture capitalists’ and founders' strategies which lead to meme coins becoming a more accessible way for retail investors to engage with the crypto market.

  • How do external factors impact the mcoin supercycle?

    External factors such as rampant inflation, growing money supply, economic inequality, job insecurity due to AI, and societal issues like loneliness and lack of meaning contribute to the appeal and success of meme coins.

  • What role do meme coins play in the broader crypto ecosystem?

    Meme coins challenge the traditional crypto tech narrative, serving as tokenized communities that focus on culture, fun, and social experiences rather than technological utility. They embody the idea that crypto investment need not be founded on technology but can also be driven by memes and communities.

  • What does the future hold for meme coins according to the video?

    The future of meme coins looks strong, with predictions of reaching a trillion in market cap, having multiple coins above significant valuations, gaining dominance on crypto charts, and influencing mainstream finance as well as venture capital attention.

  • How do meme coins compare to NFTs and other crypto assets?

    Meme coins are simpler, more liquid, and safer compared to NFTs and Defi projects. They offer higher volatility, a fresher narrative, and better chances for retail investors to win, making them more attractive.

  • Why are meme coins considered better products compared to tech altcoins?

    Meme coins are seen as better products because they focus purely on community and token dynamics rather than technology, providing a simpler and more accessible entry point into the crypto market.

  • What strategies should investors look for in meme coins?

    Investors should look for meme coins that aim to build lasting cult-like communities, have fair token distribution, positive momentum, active participation, and a lack of overhang issues like unlocks.

  • What sociocultural factors are driving the popularity of meme coins?

    Sociocultural factors include a crisis of meaning, increased online presence, competitive markets, diminishing religious influence, and the desire for belonging and identity, which make meme coins appealing as cultural symbols.

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  • 00:00:06
    I'm here to talk about the mcoin super
  • 00:00:08
    cycle why it's happening and why it will
  • 00:00:11
    continue so the mcoin supercycle is not
  • 00:00:14
    just a prediction about the future it's
  • 00:00:16
    already happening if you look at the
  • 00:00:19
    year-to-date performance of all the
  • 00:00:20
    major crypto categories they are mixed
  • 00:00:23
    bag with a lot of disappointments and a
  • 00:00:25
    lot of under underperforming tokens but
  • 00:00:29
    if you look at the bottom right of the
  • 00:00:31
    screen you will see that mem coins in
  • 00:00:33
    particular are dominating uh in terms of
  • 00:00:35
    outperformance right now old memes are
  • 00:00:38
    doing well and new memes are doing
  • 00:00:40
    particularly
  • 00:00:42
    amazing the era of all crypto assets
  • 00:00:44
    moving up in unison is over um we're all
  • 00:00:48
    going to make it is dead this is a
  • 00:00:50
    natural step in the evolution of the
  • 00:00:53
    space um if you look at the first three
  • 00:00:56
    pages of coin market cap you will see
  • 00:00:58
    that only 43 tokens
  • 00:01:00
    have outperformed Bitcoin year-to date
  • 00:01:04
    and does any category stand out you will
  • 00:01:06
    see that 13 out of the top 20 are meme
  • 00:01:09
    coins so why is the mem coin cycle
  • 00:01:12
    happening there's reasons internal to
  • 00:01:14
    the space and reasons external to the
  • 00:01:16
    space so first of all there's a massive
  • 00:01:18
    overproduction of tokens right um
  • 00:01:22
    there's 600,000 new tokens being
  • 00:01:24
    launched uh in 2024 and this was just as
  • 00:01:27
    of April uh and there's over 5 half
  • 00:01:30
    th000 tokens being launched per day
  • 00:01:33
    um they extremely inflated altcoin
  • 00:01:36
    valuations at centralized exchange
  • 00:01:39
    listing time right Let's ignore the
  • 00:01:41
    software for a moment Founders get zero
  • 00:01:43
    cost basis on the token VCS and Angels
  • 00:01:46
    get to buy a large percentage of the
  • 00:01:48
    token cheaply and then centralized
  • 00:01:51
    exchanges market makers Twitter K's
  • 00:01:54
    Twitter th artists telegram callers
  • 00:01:57
    YouTubers they all get either tokens
  • 00:01:59
    Supply or dollars in order to talk about
  • 00:02:02
    the token right and ultimately retail is
  • 00:02:05
    the exit liquidity for this when you're
  • 00:02:07
    launching A10 billion valuations um
  • 00:02:10
    retail is the exit liquidity that
  • 00:02:12
    ultimately gets dumped
  • 00:02:14
    on all of the altcoin price appreciation
  • 00:02:17
    has been relegated to the private rounds
  • 00:02:19
    uh this is what you typically see in
  • 00:02:22
    tier one VCB infrastructure tokens this
  • 00:02:24
    year all of the all of the fdv grows it
  • 00:02:27
    happens in the shadows it happens in the
  • 00:02:29
    private Market
  • 00:02:30
    by the time something gets listed it
  • 00:02:32
    gets listed at 5 10 15 billion valuation
  • 00:02:35
    so retail does not get to benefit from
  • 00:02:38
    this at all um so they deliberately I
  • 00:02:41
    believe they deliberately list altcoins
  • 00:02:43
    at extremely high initial valuations so
  • 00:02:45
    that after even after the initial
  • 00:02:47
    negative 90% which is inevitable the
  • 00:02:49
    seed investors are still up 100x while
  • 00:02:51
    retail mistakenly think that it's a
  • 00:02:53
    discounted
  • 00:02:54
    bargain um all of the 2024 Launches on
  • 00:02:58
    binance are literally down only every
  • 00:03:01
    single one except two one of them is
  • 00:03:03
    whiff which is barely up since listing
  • 00:03:06
    and the other is Jupiter which is
  • 00:03:08
    obviously mcoin trading infrastructure
  • 00:03:09
    like that in and of itself should be
  • 00:03:11
    sending a signal here gamey just as a
  • 00:03:15
    sample category not looking particularly
  • 00:03:17
    great either um there's very few
  • 00:03:21
    non-speculative daps that have been hits
  • 00:03:23
    in this industry and we've had smart
  • 00:03:24
    contracts for 10 years so if you look at
  • 00:03:26
    Unis swap pump fund poly Market fantasy
  • 00:03:28
    top Jupiter Phantom dydx GMX hyper
  • 00:03:32
    liquid roll bit Shuffle blur tensor
  • 00:03:35
    salana and big parts of defi literally
  • 00:03:39
    all of this and these are probably the
  • 00:03:41
    highest pmf products in crypto history
  • 00:03:43
    right they're all either directly
  • 00:03:46
    related to or dependent on
  • 00:03:48
    speculation 99% of altcoins don't
  • 00:03:51
    justify their valuations and they often
  • 00:03:53
    say that it's regulations which is the
  • 00:03:55
    main reason why they don't Revenue share
  • 00:03:57
    but it's not in their interest to do so
  • 00:04:00
    because there are many projects that
  • 00:04:01
    literally make $500 in fees per day
  • 00:04:03
    while trading at5 to1 billion uh
  • 00:04:06
    valuations right and goes without saying
  • 00:04:08
    that these infr tokens aren't going to
  • 00:04:10
    become monetary stores of value either
  • 00:04:13
    so if these tokens make it easy for to
  • 00:04:15
    be valued in Microsoft Excel by
  • 00:04:18
    investment banker types then it will be
  • 00:04:21
    obvious to everybody that they are 100x
  • 00:04:24
    overvalued they need the narrative they
  • 00:04:26
    need the mimetic premium to support
  • 00:04:28
    their overvalued market caps
  • 00:04:31
    and the crypto token markets don't seem
  • 00:04:33
    to Value Revenue over hype either this
  • 00:04:35
    is a list of tokens that are most
  • 00:04:36
    frequently hyped as kind of like large
  • 00:04:39
    and legitimate Revenue producers which
  • 00:04:41
    they are but their respective tokens
  • 00:04:43
    they haven't been they haven't been
  • 00:04:44
    doing particularly well either this year
  • 00:04:46
    the two exceptions are banana which
  • 00:04:48
    people use to trade meme coins and AA
  • 00:04:50
    which obviously benefited from bases mem
  • 00:04:53
    coin season as well so Revenue creates a
  • 00:04:55
    floor but it also creates a ceiling um
  • 00:04:58
    and this is probably the most important
  • 00:05:01
    binance research themselves have pointed
  • 00:05:03
    that there are $155 billion worth of
  • 00:05:07
    unlocks coming in the next 5 years that
  • 00:05:09
    is a huge headwind to anything
  • 00:05:12
    technological VCS can publicly embrace
  • 00:05:14
    the mcoin thesis because it would pose
  • 00:05:17
    risk to the valuations of tech alts a
  • 00:05:19
    lot of which haven't even launched yet
  • 00:05:22
    right and so just a reminder mem coins
  • 00:05:25
    are already fully circulating and they
  • 00:05:27
    have no unlocks last but not least Doge
  • 00:05:30
    shib Pepe and whiff have already proven
  • 00:05:33
    to the market Consciousness that these
  • 00:05:35
    things can go to 550 or even a hundred
  • 00:05:38
    billion doll type valuations and so
  • 00:05:40
    people are finally waking up to the idea
  • 00:05:42
    that the token is the real product and
  • 00:05:44
    the crypto industry is a token
  • 00:05:46
    production industry that is masquerading
  • 00:05:49
    as the software production
  • 00:05:51
    industry many new launches look like
  • 00:05:53
    this 80% of the supply in the hands of
  • 00:05:55
    insiders this is completely broken um go
  • 00:05:59
    go without saying that this does not
  • 00:06:01
    build community on the other end of the
  • 00:06:03
    spectrum you have something that's much
  • 00:06:04
    more organic if you look at the most
  • 00:06:06
    organic and bottom up meme coins you
  • 00:06:09
    will see that they effectively enabled
  • 00:06:11
    poor hodlers to get rich who
  • 00:06:13
    subsequently become unpaid full-time
  • 00:06:16
    evangelists for the project and I think
  • 00:06:18
    in the next couple of years you're
  • 00:06:19
    essentially going to see this
  • 00:06:20
    ideological war uh and for for a crypto
  • 00:06:23
    industry that's so obsessed with
  • 00:06:25
    decentralization it's crazy how
  • 00:06:27
    centralized some of the out coin
  • 00:06:29
    Holdings have become so the entire token
  • 00:06:32
    Market cannot sustain itself without
  • 00:06:33
    retail inflows but the vast majority of
  • 00:06:36
    retail never cared about technology why
  • 00:06:38
    would they care about that what does
  • 00:06:40
    retail care about some blockchain being
  • 00:06:41
    slightly more private no do they care
  • 00:06:44
    about some blockchain being slightly
  • 00:06:45
    faster no do they care about ZK snarks
  • 00:06:47
    no what do they care about let's be real
  • 00:06:49
    they care about making money they care
  • 00:06:51
    about having fun and they care about
  • 00:06:53
    belonging somewhere so memecoins are not
  • 00:06:56
    a vampire attack against crypto Tech
  • 00:06:58
    mcoins are vampire attack against
  • 00:07:00
    cryptotech tokens big difference so both
  • 00:07:03
    memecoins and altcoins are actually
  • 00:07:05
    selling you the same product it's the
  • 00:07:06
    token not the software and mem coins are
  • 00:07:09
    a Counterattack of the trenches right
  • 00:07:12
    all tokens doesn't matter if it's a tech
  • 00:07:14
    token or a meme token they're tables at
  • 00:07:16
    the casino so why should we play at your
  • 00:07:18
    tables when we can create our own tables
  • 00:07:20
    right meme coins are a spiritual
  • 00:07:22
    Reincarnation of the 2017 Ico wave but
  • 00:07:25
    in a new
  • 00:07:26
    form and uh even cryptotech projects if
  • 00:07:29
    you if you look at past history that
  • 00:07:30
    managed to create cult-like communities
  • 00:07:32
    and outperformed for a couple of Cycles
  • 00:07:34
    in a row are those that either had an
  • 00:07:37
    Ico or had some other way to let retail
  • 00:07:40
    buy cheap before a major runup why does
  • 00:07:42
    this matter because when you're trading
  • 00:07:44
    attention a Relentless Community is the
  • 00:07:46
    secret sauce that you need to look for
  • 00:07:48
    and if you don't enable poor people to
  • 00:07:49
    get rich then you have no community and
  • 00:07:51
    in my opinion air drops don't build
  • 00:07:53
    community either so there's also
  • 00:07:56
    external reasons for all this even four
  • 00:07:58
    years even from four years ago the world
  • 00:07:59
    is changing the world outside of crypto
  • 00:08:01
    inflation is going rampant money supply
  • 00:08:03
    is growing fast the prices of everyday
  • 00:08:05
    goods are skyrocketing um AI is going to
  • 00:08:08
    be coming for your jobs not even stem
  • 00:08:10
    degrees or computer science degrees are
  • 00:08:12
    a safe way out anymore
  • 00:08:15
    um wealth and in income inequality are
  • 00:08:18
    as high as they've ever been and the
  • 00:08:20
    situation outside of the developed world
  • 00:08:22
    is even
  • 00:08:23
    worse um accelerating loneliness
  • 00:08:27
    accelerating sexlessness accelerating
  • 00:08:29
    mental health issues all of these are
  • 00:08:31
    going
  • 00:08:32
    up um the amount of time spent online
  • 00:08:35
    obviously growing year by year uh
  • 00:08:38
    there's competition everything is
  • 00:08:40
    becoming hyper competitive there's few
  • 00:08:41
    remaining perceived ways to make it by
  • 00:08:43
    people right especially young people um
  • 00:08:45
    there's diminishing influence of
  • 00:08:47
    religion in society this is just an
  • 00:08:48
    undebatable fact um and last but not
  • 00:08:51
    least all of this is essentially a
  • 00:08:53
    crisis of meaning and I believe that all
  • 00:08:55
    of the above is bullish crypto it's
  • 00:08:58
    especially bullish mcoins and it's
  • 00:08:59
    especially bullish cult meme coins last
  • 00:09:03
    but not least stories create Trends
  • 00:09:04
    right for Trends to emerge there need to
  • 00:09:06
    be stories that are percolating across
  • 00:09:08
    the industry and the World At Large
  • 00:09:10
    about people making large gains in a
  • 00:09:11
    particular new category without naming
  • 00:09:13
    any names we already seen four or five
  • 00:09:15
    of these with Pepe we've seen four or
  • 00:09:17
    five of these with Bonk we've seen four
  • 00:09:19
    or five of these with whiff this cycle
  • 00:09:21
    right and all of the Phantom wallet
  • 00:09:22
    screenshots that you see of people
  • 00:09:24
    finally making it they don't come from
  • 00:09:26
    utility alts they don't come from Tech
  • 00:09:27
    alts they come from memes and this is
  • 00:09:30
    why momentum is important if you study
  • 00:09:31
    past Cycles because of momentum and
  • 00:09:33
    reflexivity the things that outperform
  • 00:09:35
    in the first half of the cycle are is
  • 00:09:38
    the same thing that outperforms in the
  • 00:09:39
    second half of the cycle again mem coins
  • 00:09:41
    are the outperformance thus far we've
  • 00:09:43
    seen this with ethereum it pumped in
  • 00:09:44
    2016 it it pumped twice more in 2017
  • 00:09:47
    Verge pumped in 2016 pumped twice more
  • 00:09:50
    in 2017 uh salana pumped in 2020 pumped
  • 00:09:53
    twice more in 2021 you've even seen this
  • 00:09:55
    with nfts pumped in 2020 pumped twice
  • 00:09:58
    more in 2021 right so this momentum is
  • 00:10:00
    important and I believe that the me
  • 00:10:02
    Mania quote unquote we had in March of
  • 00:10:05
    2024 I think that was just the first of
  • 00:10:07
    the three pumps and I think there's two
  • 00:10:09
    Giant pumps coming in
  • 00:10:11
    2025 um so if you look at the top 20 new
  • 00:10:14
    memes it's only 8 billion that just all
  • 00:10:17
    of the new memes are still cheaper than
  • 00:10:19
    a single VC backed vaporware right so
  • 00:10:22
    altcoins are 800 billion unlocks are 155
  • 00:10:25
    billion memes overall are 40 billion I
  • 00:10:27
    don't think Doge and Sh matter anymore
  • 00:10:29
    the new stuff is 8 billion that is
  • 00:10:31
    unbelievably cheap and money especially
  • 00:10:33
    retail money it naturally wants to pump
  • 00:10:36
    something that is easiest to pump and
  • 00:10:38
    that is going to be the new memes every
  • 00:10:41
    cycle the crypto asset category that
  • 00:10:42
    outperforms the most is the one that is
  • 00:10:44
    new weird and misunderstood and parabas
  • 00:10:48
    are much more likely to occur in assets
  • 00:10:50
    that are difficult to Value so not
  • 00:10:52
    having a revenue is actually an
  • 00:10:53
    advantage with each cycle the main
  • 00:10:55
    altcoin narrative is becoming crazier my
  • 00:10:58
    theory is that this is is a byproduct of
  • 00:11:00
    inflationary pressures on society and
  • 00:11:02
    its Collective mental and hormonal
  • 00:11:03
    well-being so anxiety essentially pushes
  • 00:11:06
    the Swarm further down the risk curve
  • 00:11:09
    and you're seeing this with the main
  • 00:11:11
    topics that are essentially in Vogue
  • 00:11:13
    with each cycle right here's what you
  • 00:11:16
    need to understand every single altcoin
  • 00:11:18
    out there is actually working on three
  • 00:11:20
    products they're working on the software
  • 00:11:21
    they're working on the community and
  • 00:11:23
    they're working on the token mem coins
  • 00:11:25
    are working on two products the
  • 00:11:26
    community and the
  • 00:11:27
    token people do not need technology or
  • 00:11:30
    even a promise of future dividends to
  • 00:11:32
    purchase a crypto coin all they need is
  • 00:11:34
    to like it and to see people talking
  • 00:11:36
    about it any of you who are on crypto
  • 00:11:38
    Twitter I'm sure you understand which
  • 00:11:39
    topic is being discussed the most right
  • 00:11:41
    now on utility a lot of VCS and thought
  • 00:11:44
    leaders are gaslighting you into
  • 00:11:46
    believing that mem coins don't have any
  • 00:11:47
    utility at all I strongly disagree and I
  • 00:11:50
    believe that the best mem coins actually
  • 00:11:52
    have more utility than almost all Tech
  • 00:11:53
    alts what do they offer having fun
  • 00:11:56
    loneliness reduction identity hope
  • 00:11:59
    provisioning friendships being a part of
  • 00:12:02
    Cutting Edge culture sense of belonging
  • 00:12:04
    a guild in the mmor RPG that is crypto
  • 00:12:07
    experience of teamwork greater sense of
  • 00:12:09
    participation they are what Dows were
  • 00:12:12
    supposed to be relatability emotional
  • 00:12:14
    connection Mission and meaning
  • 00:12:16
    entertainment and being happy charity
  • 00:12:18
    Collective artistic expression
  • 00:12:20
    Collective imagined reality storytelling
  • 00:12:22
    and lore building and it's just
  • 00:12:24
    hilarious to think about the even the
  • 00:12:26
    possibility of getting rich off of memes
  • 00:12:28
    so it kind of becomes a reflexive
  • 00:12:30
    self-fulfilling prophecy and all of this
  • 00:12:32
    is before we discuss the token itself
  • 00:12:35
    right so we can debate how much utility
  • 00:12:37
    memes have but it's not zero and it
  • 00:12:39
    doesn't matter that there's no Revenue
  • 00:12:41
    people are paying for these services and
  • 00:12:43
    participating by simply buying the token
  • 00:12:46
    uh this doesn't all of this logic
  • 00:12:48
    doesn't just apply to memec coins the
  • 00:12:49
    same logic applies to altcoins as well
  • 00:12:51
    but memes do it better because of
  • 00:12:53
    structural toonomic and emotional
  • 00:12:55
    reasons and here's here's my
  • 00:12:58
    controversial opinion altcoins are not
  • 00:13:00
    about technology and mcoins are not
  • 00:13:01
    about memes what they actually are
  • 00:13:03
    they're tokenized communities um they're
  • 00:13:06
    tokenized communities that use different
  • 00:13:08
    narratives and techniques to recruit
  • 00:13:09
    people and get the price to go up and DJ
  • 00:13:12
    Spartan has this famous infographic
  • 00:13:14
    right whether even if even there's quote
  • 00:13:15
    unquote fundamentals it's still
  • 00:13:17
    predominantly mimetic in nature I edited
  • 00:13:19
    that to display how I see it right so
  • 00:13:22
    the actual utility of any altcoin is
  • 00:13:24
    probability times magnitude of future
  • 00:13:26
    dividends for token holders right we
  • 00:13:28
    know most of most most of the time it's
  • 00:13:29
    not going to lead to anything but 90% is
  • 00:13:31
    still mimetics and speculation for mem
  • 00:13:33
    coins it's actually similar there is
  • 00:13:35
    some nonzero emotional value but 80 90%
  • 00:13:38
    of it is still mimetic and speculative
  • 00:13:39
    and what I think is happening in the
  • 00:13:40
    industry right now and what you will see
  • 00:13:42
    in 2025 is that Meme coins are stealing
  • 00:13:45
    the mimetic and uh speculative Premia
  • 00:13:47
    away from altcoins right people are
  • 00:13:49
    realizing it was never about the tech it
  • 00:13:51
    was always about the tokens themselves
  • 00:13:53
    so the tokens are just gambling chips
  • 00:13:55
    and mem coins are a much better product
  • 00:13:57
    they are much purer product which much
  • 00:13:59
    greater product Market fit than any Tech
  • 00:14:01
    Al so here's what you need to understand
  • 00:14:03
    any crypto asset that doesn't distribute
  • 00:14:05
    cash flows to your wallet or is a store
  • 00:14:07
    of value is a mem coin period so 99.999%
  • 00:14:11
    of altcoins were mem coins all along
  • 00:14:13
    altcoins are simply meme coins with more
  • 00:14:16
    steps it doesn't matter if a token is a
  • 00:14:19
    tech token or a meme token so what does
  • 00:14:22
    actually
  • 00:14:23
    matter the these are the factors that I
  • 00:14:25
    believe actually matter to catch the
  • 00:14:27
    next outperformer
  • 00:14:29
    Community poor people getting rich
  • 00:14:32
    perceived maximum upside token
  • 00:14:34
    distribution attention fairness organic
  • 00:14:37
    prize Discovery eliminating class
  • 00:14:40
    Warfare and bitterness within the token
  • 00:14:41
    holders no unlocks no Supply overhang
  • 00:14:44
    focusing on new coins which can
  • 00:14:45
    Enterprise Discovery and avoiding old
  • 00:14:47
    coins which have back holders price
  • 00:14:49
    action obviously positive momentum
  • 00:14:51
    evangelism and Community participation
  • 00:14:53
    where can you buy it authenticity holder
  • 00:14:56
    growth rates no VCS and VCS having to
  • 00:14:58
    buy at Market no cabal and cabal having
  • 00:15:00
    to buy at Market who the whales are who
  • 00:15:03
    the K's are who's talking about this on
  • 00:15:05
    social media obviously the concept and
  • 00:15:07
    the meme itself but it's only a small
  • 00:15:08
    part of it as you can see the message
  • 00:15:10
    decentralization of all kinds cess
  • 00:15:13
    people not selling simple uh emotion a
  • 00:15:17
    good story it needs to be a good
  • 00:15:18
    narrative a freshness of the narrative
  • 00:15:21
    you want people to be want to be a part
  • 00:15:23
    of that thing that group that movement
  • 00:15:25
    right inspiration Trends and cultural
  • 00:15:27
    zist outside of crypto
  • 00:15:29
    participation stickiness and probably
  • 00:15:31
    the most important is what I call free C
  • 00:15:33
    labor and notice how not a single one of
  • 00:15:35
    these has anything to do with software
  • 00:15:36
    Revenue these are the factors that
  • 00:15:38
    actually matter you are focused on
  • 00:15:40
    technology but the crypto industry is
  • 00:15:42
    not a technology first industry it's an
  • 00:15:44
    asset first industry even the name of
  • 00:15:46
    this conference is token
  • 00:15:48
    249 instead of tech you should be
  • 00:15:50
    focused on Human Condition retail
  • 00:15:52
    motivation and asset distribution mem
  • 00:15:54
    coins are here to stay people ask me
  • 00:15:56
    there's going to be billions of them I
  • 00:15:57
    say that's totally fine
  • 00:15:59
    uh 99.999% of them are going to be in
  • 00:16:02
    the PVP category AKA hyper gambling you
  • 00:16:04
    want to look out for those that want to
  • 00:16:06
    be multicycle you want to be out you
  • 00:16:08
    want to be uh buying those that are
  • 00:16:10
    trying to be the next Doge trying to
  • 00:16:11
    build a long-lasting cult trying to be a
  • 00:16:13
    brand right and if you ignore the
  • 00:16:16
    current crop of hungry Zoomers on crypto
  • 00:16:18
    Twitter you will understand that most
  • 00:16:20
    retail doesn't actually want to gamble
  • 00:16:22
    and constantly rotate they want to buy
  • 00:16:24
    and hold something that they resonate
  • 00:16:25
    with this is why PVE memes are going to
  • 00:16:27
    succeed in the end they want to believe
  • 00:16:29
    in something and the word mcoin is a
  • 00:16:31
    misnomer it's only about 30% about the
  • 00:16:33
    meme itself and it's 70% about the
  • 00:16:36
    people again what mequin really are
  • 00:16:38
    they're tokenized communities which use
  • 00:16:40
    the meme as their symbol and their
  • 00:16:41
    banner and there's going to be different
  • 00:16:43
    flavors of them so the best PVE memes
  • 00:16:46
    are going to be Cults what is a cult
  • 00:16:48
    it's a group of people that are
  • 00:16:50
    extremely passionate about a cause if
  • 00:16:52
    you've been U kind of studying any of
  • 00:16:54
    the Silicon Valley blogs from early
  • 00:16:56
    2010s you will see many startups always
  • 00:16:59
    trying to unbundle Craigslist and at the
  • 00:17:01
    risk of being a little bit Blasphemous I
  • 00:17:03
    think what you're going to see in the
  • 00:17:04
    future is the unbundling of religion it
  • 00:17:07
    is uh essentially a Swiss army knife um
  • 00:17:10
    where which offers a bunch of products
  • 00:17:13
    it offers identity culture Escape
  • 00:17:16
    loneliness reduction Community hope and
  • 00:17:18
    a bunch of other things and I believe
  • 00:17:21
    that religion is losing influence in the
  • 00:17:22
    world and Brands experiences and
  • 00:17:25
    communities are feeling that void you
  • 00:17:26
    can already see that with uh video games
  • 00:17:29
    music festivals yoga DMT Retreats
  • 00:17:33
    CrossFit Soul cycle keto and obviously
  • 00:17:36
    Financial assets right you know how
  • 00:17:38
    culty Apple Tesla holders are how
  • 00:17:40
    extremely culty Bitcoin holders are and
  • 00:17:42
    I believe we're going to be seeing simil
  • 00:17:43
    similar phenomena with memes so mem
  • 00:17:46
    coins have shared values shared
  • 00:17:47
    Lifestyles shared principles and
  • 00:17:49
    understand that memes themselves are
  • 00:17:50
    only a part of this right and so it
  • 00:17:52
    doesn't actually matter if something is
  • 00:17:55
    a tech Al or a meme coin what actually
  • 00:17:57
    matters is whether it's a cult most
  • 00:17:59
    crypto out performance have always been
  • 00:18:00
    Cults both Tech and non-tech Bitcoin
  • 00:18:03
    ethereum uh Ripple cardano chain link
  • 00:18:05
    Dogecoin ship
  • 00:18:07
    Tow and a lot of people focus on money
  • 00:18:09
    and attention but you also need to focus
  • 00:18:11
    on time energy and labor and I don't
  • 00:18:13
    think people are going to be putting
  • 00:18:15
    their time energy and labor into VC
  • 00:18:18
    funded Tech projects that are already at
  • 00:18:19
    10 billion because if and if you don't
  • 00:18:21
    have Community your token is dead so why
  • 00:18:23
    is being a called desirable because
  • 00:18:25
    people are not going to be selling
  • 00:18:26
    people are going to have very high rates
  • 00:18:28
    of particip you're going to have an army
  • 00:18:30
    of skidos working for the coin 24/7 even
  • 00:18:32
    while you sleep and you're essentially
  • 00:18:34
    going to have holders some of which are
  • 00:18:35
    Engineers designers and influencers
  • 00:18:37
    providing labor for
  • 00:18:38
    free so I always like this uh this tweet
  • 00:18:42
    by sisifus from April 2024 he said meme
  • 00:18:45
    coins are making people realize that
  • 00:18:47
    nearly all of the tech in crypto is a
  • 00:18:49
    smokees screen designed to sell you a
  • 00:18:51
    token that does nothing marked up 100x
  • 00:18:53
    from the private round this is why VCS
  • 00:18:56
    don't like meme coins it threatens their
  • 00:18:58
    Core Business which is selling
  • 00:19:00
    Vapor uh just briefly nfts I think meme
  • 00:19:03
    coins are going to go much higher
  • 00:19:04
    because instead of having 3,000 people
  • 00:19:06
    promoting 10,000 illiquid jpegs you now
  • 00:19:08
    have 100,000 people promoting one single
  • 00:19:10
    liquid token this is how I see the mcoin
  • 00:19:13
    space evolving you want to be focused on
  • 00:19:16
    things that are going to become Cults
  • 00:19:17
    brands or movements um how to Value them
  • 00:19:20
    they're not Equity they're not debt
  • 00:19:22
    they're not currencies they're not quite
  • 00:19:24
    like take alts either the best mem coins
  • 00:19:26
    are emerging mini religions and need to
  • 00:19:27
    be analyzed as such I see them as
  • 00:19:29
    financialized vessels of faith and I see
  • 00:19:32
    them as vessels collecting the
  • 00:19:33
    satisfaction both within crypto but also
  • 00:19:36
    with the word at large so if mem coins
  • 00:19:39
    are a financialized middle finger to
  • 00:19:40
    crypto movement coins are a
  • 00:19:42
    financialized middle finger to the world
  • 00:19:44
    and mem coins are simple and Tech Al are
  • 00:19:46
    complex retail doesn't want to study
  • 00:19:48
    about staking restak or impermanent loss
  • 00:19:51
    and they're much more friendly to new
  • 00:19:52
    people so putting it all together mem
  • 00:19:54
    coins are simpler than Tech alts they're
  • 00:19:56
    more liquid than nfts they're safe than
  • 00:19:58
    defi they have no inflation no unlocks
  • 00:20:01
    they have no UND dumping on you uh you
  • 00:20:03
    have better odds than with sports
  • 00:20:05
    betting or casinos uh you have more
  • 00:20:07
    volatility AKA excitement it's a fresher
  • 00:20:09
    narrative it gives retail a chance to
  • 00:20:10
    win and the community is much more
  • 00:20:12
    passionate than in any other crypto
  • 00:20:14
    asset class and the best crypto products
  • 00:20:16
    don't require token and the best crypto
  • 00:20:18
    tokens don't require product again mcoin
  • 00:20:20
    cycle is not a prediction it's already
  • 00:20:22
    happening memes are dominating every
  • 00:20:23
    metric every single metric so these are
  • 00:20:26
    my predictions one trillion for meme
  • 00:20:28
    coins uh market cap uh you're going to
  • 00:20:30
    see two memes above 100 billion you're
  • 00:20:32
    going to see 10 memes above 10 billion a
  • 00:20:34
    quarter of the first page of coin market
  • 00:20:36
    cap is going to be memes 10% meme coin
  • 00:20:39
    dominance utility and VC backed alts
  • 00:20:41
    will continue out underperforming fat
  • 00:20:44
    protocol thesis will slowly die because
  • 00:20:45
    building store value and casino number
  • 00:20:47
    four number five is getting increasingly
  • 00:20:49
    hard VCS will be buying Blue Chip meme
  • 00:20:52
    coins Smart Ones are already beginning
  • 00:20:53
    to do so trafy will be buying meme coins
  • 00:20:56
    Smart Ones are already beginning to do
  • 00:20:57
    so and you will see hyper mecoin before
  • 00:21:00
    hyperbitcoinization and a lot of people
  • 00:21:02
    talking about economics of belief
  • 00:21:04
    tokenization of faith and financialized
  • 00:21:06
    new religions uh for more insights
  • 00:21:08
    follow me on Twitter at must mad and
  • 00:21:10
    remember stop trading and believe in
  • 00:21:12
    something thank you
Etiquetas
  • Mcoin Supercycle
  • Meme Coins
  • Crytpo Market Trends
  • Retail Investment
  • Tokenization
  • Crypto Communities
  • Economic Inequality
  • Societal Shifts
  • Token Valuations
  • Venture Capital