00:00:00
insid of buying is a bullish signal
00:00:02
because management Buy on the basis they
00:00:04
see the share price rising and today we
00:00:07
are looking at some of these stocks
00:00:08
where they have been notable buys now as
00:00:11
you can see here transaction buy with at
00:00:13
least 100,000 over the last month we're
00:00:16
going to jump straight into the first
00:00:17
one where we can in fact see the
00:00:18
director of Nike did buy on the 27th of
00:00:22
December around
00:00:23
$200,000 worth of shares now we're going
00:00:25
to jump into each one very quickly look
00:00:28
at them and their valuation we you can
00:00:30
see they are down around 26% over the
00:00:33
last year and over the last 10 years
00:00:35
they're up only 55% massively
00:00:38
underperforming the S&P in fact their
00:00:40
all-time highs you'd have to go back to
00:00:42
November 2021 over 3 years ago at
00:00:47
$178 right now trading towards the lower
00:00:49
end of the 52e range with just one buy
00:00:52
rating from Wall Street and they do pay
00:00:54
a dividend currently sitting at
00:00:56
2.3% we also notice in their earnings
00:00:59
estimation
00:01:00
over the next four quarters every single
00:01:02
one of them they're expecting a drop to
00:01:04
the EPS year on-ear but we do like the
00:01:07
fact that over the last four quarters
00:01:08
they have a 100% track record four out
00:01:11
of four beats and if we look to May 2026
00:01:14
on the basis they'll hit their $248 EPS
00:01:17
estimate the forward P will come down to
00:01:20
around
00:01:21
29.6 if we were to look at the valuation
00:01:23
aspect of the company they do get a D
00:01:26
minus now essentially they appear on a
00:01:28
non gap of 35 if is significantly higher
00:01:31
than the sector comparative at 17.6
00:01:34
meaning if you're buying this company
00:01:35
right now you are paying a 100% premium
00:01:38
but in comparison it does sit pretty
00:01:40
much in line with their 5year average we
00:01:43
also just want to show you this in terms
00:01:45
of dividend yield Theory which does tell
00:01:47
us a company is undervalued when the
00:01:49
current yield sits above the 5e that
00:01:51
this right now does give us that signal
00:01:53
although when we do look at the forward
00:01:54
PE on this basis it does sit above so
00:01:57
two different signals both in fact
00:01:59
contradict each other but that is why we
00:02:01
always ultimately like to run it through
00:02:03
our valuation process where today we get
00:02:05
to $91 the average of these three models
00:02:08
now remember on this show we do our
00:02:10
deeper Dives running through every
00:02:12
single one today we're getting straight
00:02:14
to it and at $91 with the current price
00:02:16
around 74 we do apply a margin of safety
00:02:20
starting off at 10% executing on that if
00:02:22
it meets the three golden criteria wide
00:02:25
Mo strong financial metrics good
00:02:27
forward-looking data if you believe that
00:02:29
a buy up $82 and as we keep going to see
00:02:32
where it sits right now for this company
00:02:34
you're getting at least a 20% MOS around
00:02:37
the $73 Mark with Wall Street by the end
00:02:40
of this year 2025 they see the price at
00:02:43
$86 translating to 16% upside and do
00:02:46
give us your thoughts below remember you
00:02:48
can grab a copy of this model by
00:02:50
clicking on the pin comment below
00:02:51
running through your own numbers whether
00:02:53
it's for n or any others we then move on
00:02:55
to Constellation Brands where the
00:02:57
director on the 17th of January did buy
00:02:59
just under 200,000 worth of shares and
00:03:02
we can also see that this company is
00:03:04
trading right there at its 52e low in
00:03:07
fact similar to the previous company
00:03:09
down significantly nearly 30% over the
00:03:12
last year and over the last 10 years
00:03:14
whil it is positive up 63% it has
00:03:17
underperformed the SNP we do know a
00:03:20
double buy from both seeking Alfred's
00:03:22
Wall Street and we can see the current
00:03:24
yield on offer sits at
00:03:26
2.2% in terms of their earnings unlike
00:03:28
Knight they do anticipate growth to the
00:03:30
EPS over the next four quarters and they
00:03:33
have missed their most recent by 6 cents
00:03:35
nonetheless they get a 75% track record
00:03:38
and if we look to next February with the
00:03:40
EPS estimate the forward P does sit
00:03:43
around 12.5 in comparison to the sector
00:03:46
which sits at 16.2 you are getting a 16%
00:03:50
discount and we also notice historically
00:03:52
this company's 5e average does sit
00:03:55
higher thereby meaning you are also
00:03:56
getting a 35% discount to the 5 years if
00:04:00
we were to look at dividend yield Theory
00:04:02
again a massive undervaluation signal
00:04:04
the yield sits considerably above the
00:04:06
5year but also the forward piece sitting
00:04:08
considerably below the 5year 20.3
00:04:11
meaning this company solely based on
00:04:13
those two models do give us an
00:04:15
undervaluation signal something we also
00:04:17
noticed when running it through our
00:04:19
calculations as we do keep going to the
00:04:21
MOs in fact at this price point you are
00:04:23
getting a 20% MOS with Wall Street very
00:04:26
bullish their price Target
00:04:28
$244 trans relating to 36% upside and
00:04:31
let us know whether or not maybe this
00:04:33
one is on your watch list or one you
00:04:35
have been buying over the recent period
00:04:37
we also want to let you know we have
00:04:38
just released our latest free weekly
00:04:40
article we drop one every single Monday
00:04:42
morning covering severely undervalued
00:04:45
stocks for your attention as well as
00:04:47
what's going in the market over the last
00:04:48
few days so click below you can sign up
00:04:51
read straight away where you'll be able
00:04:53
to gain access to 46 undervalued stocks
00:04:55
for the month of January the upside That
00:04:58
Wall Street see over the next year and
00:05:00
on top of that you can grab a recently
00:05:02
released copy of 43 stocks that Wall
00:05:05
Street believe right now have the most
00:05:07
upside in the S&P 500 so click below you
00:05:10
can sign up and start reading straight
00:05:12
away we then move on to FedEx where we
00:05:14
can see the EVP and the Chief Financial
00:05:17
Officer on the 7th of January bought
00:05:18
around $300,000 worth of shares when we
00:05:21
get to the company itself over the last
00:05:23
year up around 9% over the last 10 years
00:05:26
up only 62% bit of a roller coaster as
00:05:29
we can see here over the 10-year period
00:05:31
and right now trading in the mid to
00:05:33
lower end of the 52e range with a double
00:05:35
buy from both Wall Street as well as
00:05:37
Quant and a yield that pretty much sits
00:05:39
firmly at the 2% point when we look at
00:05:42
the earnings well we do love the fact
00:05:43
that over the next four quarters FedEx
00:05:46
are anticipating double digit growth to
00:05:48
the EPS year onye 75% track record and
00:05:51
when we look at May 2026 if they do hit
00:05:54
that $23 EPS the forward P will come
00:05:57
down to around 12.1 right now Al though
00:05:59
in terms of evaluation the sector does
00:06:01
sit considerably higher at 21.2 meaning
00:06:05
you are getting a 33% discount when you
00:06:07
do compare it however it isn't that far
00:06:09
off in fact from their 5year average and
00:06:12
we also notice in terms of dividend
00:06:14
yield Theory pretty much in line 1.9
00:06:16
versus 2.02 and the same to be said for
00:06:19
the forward P indicating here a double
00:06:21
reasonable signal our intrinsic value
00:06:23
today at
00:06:25
$338 as we keep going in terms of the
00:06:27
margin of safety you are pretty much
00:06:29
looking at around 20% around
00:06:31
$270 with Wall Street fairly bullish you
00:06:34
got the Buy Signal 335 by the end of
00:06:37
2025 translating to 23% upside and as we
00:06:40
said earlier you are getting yeld around
00:06:42
the 2% point we then move on to CME
00:06:44
Group where they Direct on the 16th of
00:06:47
January bought around
00:06:48
326,000 shares when we look at this
00:06:50
company's performance they're trading in
00:06:52
the mid to uper end of the 52 Week up
00:06:54
14% over the last year over the last 10
00:06:57
years they've actually been
00:06:58
outperforming the S&P although
00:07:00
marginally up
00:07:01
172 and they do PIR yield on the higher
00:07:04
Spectrum today at 4.5% with a buy from
00:07:07
quam and a buy from Seeking Alpha yet it
00:07:10
does have a hold from Wall Street when
00:07:12
we look at their earnings well over the
00:07:13
next four quarters they're expecting
00:07:15
three of them to be growth with a 100%
00:07:17
track record and by the end of this year
00:07:19
based on the EPS of 1040 the forward P
00:07:22
will come down to
00:07:24
22.4 if you were to look at the
00:07:26
evaluation however they do get a d
00:07:28
because the sector median does sit
00:07:30
significantly low at 12.5 meaning you
00:07:32
are paying an 82% premium but one thing
00:07:35
we do like is the fact that it does sit
00:07:37
below the 5year average in fact around
00:07:39
10% if we look at dividend yield Theory
00:07:41
though both the yield and the forward PE
00:07:43
aren't too far off the 5year rolling so
00:07:45
you could argue another reasonable
00:07:47
signal here when we do look at it from a
00:07:48
valuation perspective this is one where
00:07:50
we actually see the intrinsic value
00:07:52
lower than the current price meaning it
00:07:54
is trading at a premium for example if
00:07:56
you wanted a 10% MOS we would see this
00:07:58
acceptable buy at 172 at 15% around 163
00:08:03
and at 20% at 153 however no MOS right
00:08:06
now and W Street themselves with their
00:08:08
hold rating see limited upside
00:08:11
$247 price Target translating to 7%
00:08:14
upside now whilst not at the 52e low we
00:08:16
would talk about here a buy where we see
00:08:18
Burkshire haway Warren Buffett buying a
00:08:21
significant amount of Vera sign in fact
00:08:23
we see around $28 million on the first
00:08:25
purchase 24th of 2024 we can see the
00:08:29
continuation here on the 30th as well as
00:08:31
on the 3rd of January and in total this
00:08:34
is quite a large amount $4 million
00:08:37
million and a Tran here at $28 million
00:08:39
now we are just very briefly going to
00:08:41
touch upon it as we can see over the
00:08:43
last year it is up only around 2% and
00:08:45
over the last 10 years though it has out
00:08:47
formed the S&P up
00:08:49
266 trading at the upper end of the 52e
00:08:52
range with a double buy from both
00:08:54
Seeking Alpha as well as Wall Street and
00:08:56
this is one that doesn't currently pay a
00:08:58
dividend if we were to look at at their
00:08:59
earnings over the next four quarters
00:09:01
three of them to be positive however the
00:09:03
upcoming double digigit negative decline
00:09:06
anticipated last four quarters 100%
00:09:08
track record and based on the EPS this
00:09:11
is anticipated for 2025 to sit at
00:09:14
24.2 in terms of the valuation they do
00:09:17
get a D+ but we do notice pretty much in
00:09:19
line with the sector Medan but
00:09:21
significantly lower in fact around 16%
00:09:24
than the 5year average and when we do
00:09:25
run it into the valuation process a very
00:09:28
similar conclusion to the C M group
00:09:29
where we see it intrinsically lower than
00:09:31
the current price meaning it is trading
00:09:33
at a marginal premium but again we will
00:09:35
show you 10% buy 182 at 15% around 172
00:09:40
and at 20% 162 so right now no margin of
00:09:43
safety Wall Street however they have G
00:09:45
an upside of 17% they see this at
00:09:48
$244 at the end of 2025 but as always do
00:09:52
give us your thoughts below and don't
00:09:53
forget to sign up to the free weekly
00:09:55
newsl we are dropping another copy
00:09:57
Monday morning grab those spreadsheets
00:09:59
come join us in the patreon where we do
00:10:00
cover our weekly buys and sells and as
00:10:02
always have a great day we'll see you
00:10:04
all on the next one
