00:00:00
so the tariffs just got worse Tariffs on
00:00:03
China could get as high as 245%
00:00:07
This means that a dollar product in the
00:00:10
US will now cost
00:00:12
$345 in China Tariffs against China went
00:00:16
from 10% to 20 then to 54 then 104 then
00:00:22
145 and now we're looking at putting a
00:00:25
245% tariff against China So it feels
00:00:28
like we're just a couple steps away from
00:00:30
saying infinite tariffs Let's just stop
00:00:33
trading And China's response is calling
00:00:36
the bluff saying the tariffs are
00:00:38
meaningless at this point and it just
00:00:40
makes no difference
00:00:47
[Music]
00:00:49
But it does make a difference to
00:00:51
businesses because last year the United
00:00:54
States imported over
00:00:56
$438 billion worth of stuff from China
00:01:00
And this new 245% tariff would increase
00:01:03
the price of all this stuff by a factor
00:01:06
of about three And when stuff is three
00:01:08
times more expensive investors panic and
00:01:11
the markets start to get scared and they
00:01:13
anticipate inflation And that's why the
00:01:16
stock market is going sideways and
00:01:18
interest rates are going up in the bond
00:01:20
market But the craziest development
00:01:22
that's happening right now is that
00:01:24
President Trump wants to fire the
00:01:27
chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome
00:01:29
Powell That would have huge implications
00:01:32
on the market and the economy That's why
00:01:34
the stock market is terrified and China
00:01:37
is trying to isolate the United States
00:01:39
by pulling their money out of private
00:01:41
equity And that's why there's even
00:01:43
rumors of the United States potentially
00:01:45
issuing something called the super bond
00:01:48
A bond with a 100year payback period So
00:01:52
what started as a trade war is now
00:01:54
something a lot bigger It's turning into
00:01:57
an economic war a tech war bond market
00:02:00
panic and maybe even a central bank
00:02:03
crisis So if you're feeling like
00:02:05
everything is breaking at the same time
00:02:07
you're not crazy I want to help explain
00:02:09
the next phase of this story and what's
00:02:12
actually happening and why it's
00:02:14
happening and what I'm personally doing
00:02:16
with my money while the system resets
00:02:18
itself in real time So with that said
00:02:21
let's get into it Hi my name is Andre
00:02:23
Jick Hope you're doing well Come for the
00:02:24
finance and stay for the magic Now
00:02:26
there's a lot of confusion about what's
00:02:28
actually happening to the economy and
00:02:29
why it's happening And the truth is no
00:02:32
one knows But I want to start this video
00:02:34
by framing it through the context of a
00:02:37
very cool magic trick Now in magic
00:02:40
there's this concept called equivocay or
00:02:42
equivoc which means magician's choice
00:02:45
And let me show you what it looks like I
00:02:46
want to go ahead and pick a card Now it
00:02:49
doesn't matter what card you pick but
00:02:50
let's say you picked this one which is
00:02:52
the jack of hearts right here Now we're
00:02:55
going to put the jack on top and we're
00:02:56
going to lose him into the middle of the
00:02:58
deck And with a snap of my fingers with
00:03:00
a little bit of magic we're going to
00:03:01
take your card and turn it into the only
00:03:04
blue card in the deck And that only blue
00:03:08
card was your card which was the Jack of
00:03:12
Hearts Now I'm going to do this trick
00:03:14
one more time So pay special close
00:03:16
attention I'm going to put this one off
00:03:17
to the side and I want you to tell me
00:03:19
when to
00:03:20
stop Stop right here Go ahead and
00:03:22
memorize that card We're going to lose
00:03:24
it in the middle again And just like
00:03:26
that your card turns into the only blue
00:03:30
card in the deck except the only blue
00:03:33
card was here the whole time which was
00:03:36
your card Thank you Thank you Please no
00:03:39
autographs But you can smash the like
00:03:41
button and subscribe So this trick uses
00:03:42
a concept called equivoke magician's
00:03:44
choice right it's where I give you an
00:03:47
option that feels like a free choice but
00:03:49
in reality it's not a free choice at all
00:03:52
because I made you pick a specific card
00:03:54
for at least one half of that trick But
00:03:56
here's the really cool part Even if I
00:03:58
got the trick wrong I can also use
00:04:01
what's called multiple outs Meaning
00:04:04
because you don't know where the trick
00:04:06
is supposed to go I can have a lot of
00:04:08
different outcomes that all look equally
00:04:11
amazing So even if I get something wrong
00:04:13
I'll know but you won't And that's
00:04:16
because I could say "Well instead of the
00:04:18
card being blue your card is now in my
00:04:21
pocket." Or now the card is a different
00:04:23
color and it's over there But what I
00:04:25
just showed you was the best outcome for
00:04:28
that trick And when I look around the
00:04:30
world to see what's happening sometimes
00:04:32
it seems to me like the US government is
00:04:35
using similar principles and methods to
00:04:38
accomplish what they want And here's how
00:04:41
There's one main objective outcome
00:04:43
Meaning there's one main thing we want
00:04:45
to have happen And people debate what
00:04:47
that is But at least for me I think the
00:04:50
US really wants to have lower interest
00:04:52
rates so the US can refinance the $9
00:04:55
trillion worth of national debt that's
00:04:57
coming due this year And on a personal
00:04:59
level lower interest rates so we can all
00:05:01
start borrowing money to invest and get
00:05:03
rich again And if you're trying to build
00:05:04
wealth in this kind of market where
00:05:06
rates are high and volatility is all
00:05:08
over the place and everyone's predicting
00:05:09
something different you need a platform
00:05:11
that gives you options And that's why I
00:05:13
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00:05:15
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00:05:17
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00:05:36
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00:05:43
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00:05:50
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00:05:52
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00:05:54
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00:06:01
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Thanks again to Public for supporting
00:06:06
this part of the video And now let's get
00:06:07
back to it So the number one priority
00:06:09
right now is to lower interest rates But
00:06:11
economies are complicated because we're
00:06:13
talking about geopolitics and
00:06:15
macroeconomics So it's not as simple as
00:06:18
a magic trick So the country has to have
00:06:20
multiple outcomes which have to look
00:06:23
equally successful And here's a couple
00:06:25
of them that are in the works right now
00:06:27
The US is using tariffs to pressure
00:06:29
other countries to drop their tariffs
00:06:31
create fair trade and make more money
00:06:34
That's one outcome that's better than
00:06:36
what it was before Another outcome is
00:06:39
potentially bringing back high-skilled
00:06:41
manufacturing jobs so the US can make
00:06:43
its own stuff again and not have to rely
00:06:46
on a competing country to make it for
00:06:48
them National security for long-term
00:06:51
prosperity That's another outcome better
00:06:53
than what it was before Or the US could
00:06:56
also be using tariffs as pressure points
00:06:58
against other countries to cut China off
00:07:00
so they can't get around the tariffs and
00:07:03
the US can close the trade deficit Cool
00:07:06
That's another outcome And if all else
00:07:07
fails we can point to the collapsing
00:07:09
economy and say "Hey look inflation's
00:07:12
slowed down to below 2% and the price of
00:07:15
eggs and gas have fallen so everything
00:07:17
is more affordable now Consumers win."
00:07:20
That's another potential outcome There's
00:07:22
a lot of outcomes to this magic trick
00:07:24
but I don't think we've seen the main
00:07:27
outcome yet What we have seen is
00:07:29
something that looks like this
00:07:33
[Applause]
00:07:35
[Music]
00:07:37
That's the falling bond market and
00:07:39
interest rates going up which is the
00:07:41
opposite effect of what we want to have
00:07:43
happen So as an audience we're just
00:07:45
watching this magic trick play out and
00:07:47
we're like amateur But I don't think
00:07:48
we've seen the outcome yet And it can
00:07:50
still be an amazing magic trick It's
00:07:52
just not necessarily going the way we
00:07:55
wanted it to right away And the main
00:07:57
effect is I think to lower interest
00:08:00
rates And here's why Because if you
00:08:02
really zoom out and look at everything
00:08:03
that's happening right now the tariffs
00:08:06
the bond market chaos the Fed drama and
00:08:08
even the idea or the rumor of the super
00:08:10
bond it all points back to one thing The
00:08:14
US needing to refinance its debt or at
00:08:16
least some of it $9 trillion is coming
00:08:18
due this year And if interest rates stay
00:08:20
this high that refinancing becomes a
00:08:23
nightmare Just like most people can't
00:08:25
afford to refinance a mortgage at 8% The
00:08:28
US can't afford to roll over its
00:08:31
national debt without triggering even
00:08:33
more deficits more borrowing and
00:08:36
eventually more inflation And in the
00:08:38
long term most economists say that it's
00:08:41
an unsustainable path In the long run
00:08:44
the US is on an unsustainable fiscal
00:08:47
path The US federal government is on an
00:08:48
unsustainable fiscal path And that just
00:08:50
means that the debt is growing faster
00:08:52
than the economy So the question is how
00:08:54
do we fix that you can do whatever you
00:08:57
can to get interest rates down You
00:08:59
pressure the Fed You scare the markets
00:09:01
and you maybe even reshape the story
00:09:03
around inflation and say "Hey it's
00:09:05
already coming down now It's time to
00:09:07
cut." But when the Fed doesn't cut as
00:09:10
fast as it needs to that's where the
00:09:12
magic trick takes another turn and it
00:09:14
has to adapt And President Trump is
00:09:17
trying to replace Jerome Pal at this
00:09:18
point the man who kind of controls the
00:09:21
interest rate On April 17th President
00:09:23
Trump said "Termination of Jerome Powell
00:09:26
cannot come fast enough." And the last
00:09:29
time a Fed chair was fired was never
00:09:32
It's never happened in history And
00:09:34
that's because legally the president
00:09:36
can't just fire the Fed chair because he
00:09:38
doesn't like the interest rate He's
00:09:40
trying to bring back 0% rates And Jerome
00:09:42
Powell stands in the way of that goal
00:09:44
And the reason he's not lowering rates
00:09:46
today is because Jerome Powell believes
00:09:49
the economy is in a good place and
00:09:51
there's no reason to Despite heightened
00:09:54
uncertainty and downside risks the US
00:09:56
economy is still in a solid position Now
00:09:58
technically Drum Pal's term runs until
00:10:01
2026 and the law says he can only be
00:10:04
removed for cause which means misconduct
00:10:06
but not policy disagreements But that's
00:10:09
still not stopping President Trump from
00:10:10
looking into workarounds like
00:10:12
reassigning Jerome Pal to a different
00:10:14
role or appointing a shadowfed chair
00:10:17
which is someone who's not officially in
00:10:19
charge but publicly acts like they are
00:10:21
and that someone might be someone like
00:10:23
Scott Bessant Do you believe you have
00:10:25
the power to remove him and are you
00:10:26
trying to do that i don't think he's
00:10:28
doing the job He's uh too late Always
00:10:31
too late A little slow and I'm not happy
00:10:34
with him Uh I let him know it and uh oh
00:10:40
if I want him out he'll be out of there
00:10:41
real fast Believe me that's one of the
00:10:44
main strategies because the faster the
00:10:46
Fed can cut the rate the faster the US
00:10:49
can refinance its debt And if Jerome Pal
00:10:51
won't do it President Trump will try to
00:10:53
replace him with someone who will And
00:10:55
that brings us to the latest trick up
00:10:57
the government's sleeve which are rumors
00:10:59
of the super bond Now a super bond is
00:11:01
just a bond but with a 100-year maturity
00:11:05
That means if the government sells one
00:11:07
of these this year in 2025 they wouldn't
00:11:09
have to pay it back until the year 2125
00:11:13
So it's basically the financial
00:11:14
equivalent of saying "Don't worry about
00:11:16
it Future generations will handle it for
00:11:17
us." Except the one exception is that
00:11:19
the government would have the ability to
00:11:22
repay anytime they want whenever it's
00:11:25
favorable to do so presumably when
00:11:28
interest rates are low Because if we
00:11:30
refinance all our debt right now at 4
00:11:34
five or 6% interest the interest
00:11:36
payments would just eat the budget alive
00:11:38
So the super bond is kind of like
00:11:40
kicking the can so far down the road
00:11:42
that it sort of disappears behind the
00:11:45
curvature of the earth which might not
00:11:47
be such a bad idea I don't know But the
00:11:49
magic trick is kind of neat And if they
00:11:51
can sell it at a low enough interest
00:11:52
rate then even better because it locks
00:11:54
in that cheap debt for a century The
00:11:57
catch though is who's going to buy a
00:12:00
100-year loan to the US right now with
00:12:02
all the volatility all the inflation
00:12:05
uncertainty and the Fed drama probably
00:12:08
nobody But it is an idea the US
00:12:10
government has considered at some point
00:12:12
which kind of brings us right back to
00:12:14
the main magic trick Do whatever it
00:12:16
takes to lower interest rates fire
00:12:18
Jerome Powell blame the bond market
00:12:20
blame the economy pause rate hikes
00:12:23
Whatever the illusion is the reveal I
00:12:25
think will always be the same which is
00:12:27
cheaper debt But magic tricks and
00:12:30
illusions aside here's the reality that
00:12:32
we as an audience are watching play out
00:12:34
right now The markets are reacting in a
00:12:37
bad way The stock market's S&P 500 just
00:12:39
had one of the biggest drops in decades
00:12:42
losing trillions of dollars in value in
00:12:44
just a couple days Nvidia alone just
00:12:46
lost over a hundred billion dollars in
00:12:48
market cap The VIX which is how Wall
00:12:51
Street measures the fear and greed index
00:12:53
went up into the 40s and at one point
00:12:55
even hit the 50s That's what's called
00:12:58
panic territory And it's not just stocks
00:13:01
The bond market which is supposed to be
00:13:03
the most boring part about all of this
00:13:05
is acting like a stock Short-term rates
00:13:08
are also falling because investors think
00:13:10
the Fed will have to cut interest rates
00:13:13
But long-term yields are going up The
00:13:15
10-year Treasury yield went up above 4%
00:13:17
Because long-term investors are
00:13:20
demanding more compensation not just for
00:13:23
inflation but for uncertainty
00:13:26
Uncertainty about the Fed uncertainty
00:13:27
about President Trump replacing Jerome
00:13:29
Powell uncertainty about whether China
00:13:31
Japan and other countries are dumping
00:13:34
treasuries in retaliation So even if
00:13:37
inflation's falling the cost of
00:13:38
borrowing isn't And that's what the bond
00:13:41
market is telling us Because unless we
00:13:42
bring those rates down everything will
00:13:44
get more expensive mortgage rates credit
00:13:47
cards car loans small business debt and
00:13:50
even student loans And it's not just the
00:13:52
US The rest of the world is going
00:13:55
through the same thing In Europe
00:13:57
Germany's facing a recession and the
00:14:00
European Central Bank has already
00:14:02
started lowering interest rates to try
00:14:04
to avoid a recession And while all of
00:14:06
this is happening investors are pulling
00:14:09
their money out of risky markets and
00:14:12
into US dollars and short-term bonds
00:14:16
Even with all this chaos the whole world
00:14:18
is going through what economists call a
00:14:20
flight to safety And right now safety
00:14:23
looks like cash gold and short-term US
00:14:27
Treasury bonds So the whole world is
00:14:28
kind of dropping cards right now and
00:14:30
we're all losing faith in the performer
00:14:32
and everyone's staring at the stage
00:14:33
wondering was that supposed to happen
00:14:35
but that's not how I'm thinking about
00:14:37
this because as someone who loves
00:14:39
entertaining and economics and investing
00:14:42
I'm always reminded that the audience
00:14:44
doesn't always know where the trick and
00:14:46
where the show is going Sometimes the
00:14:48
real effect happens after the
00:14:50
misdirection So here's what I'm doing
00:14:52
with my money and I'm not doing anything
00:14:54
different I'm still dollar cost
00:14:56
averaging into VTI the ETF that
00:14:59
represents the total US stock market
00:15:01
because I believe that in the long term
00:15:03
the market will continue to go up
00:15:06
especially if we have a big drop In fact
00:15:08
I kind of hope that we see a lot more
00:15:10
drops in the future so I can buy more of
00:15:12
the market And I'm also still buying
00:15:14
Bitcoin especially when that fear is
00:15:16
high and Bitcoin drops Because if paper
00:15:19
money systems are the illusion that the
00:15:21
government created Bitcoin is the trick
00:15:23
that can't be rigged then I'm moving
00:15:26
that Bitcoin off the exchanges and into
00:15:28
cold storage And if you want to learn
00:15:29
how to do that step by step I built a
00:15:31
4hour training video that walks you
00:15:33
through everything step by step You can
00:15:35
use coupon code Andre 40 for an
00:15:37
additional 40% off But at the end of the
00:15:40
day I don't know how this trick is going
00:15:42
to end And neither does our government
00:15:44
So before anyone says our president is a
00:15:46
genius and he knows he does not know the
00:15:48
outcome But hopefully we are smart
00:15:51
enough to have set this up with multiple
00:15:54
outcomes that are equally successful I
00:15:56
don't know if the Fed cuts rates or if
00:15:58
the super bond would ever happen but I
00:16:00
do know how to be a good audience member
00:16:02
and to stay calm and keep on watching to
00:16:05
at least entertain myself But I'd love
00:16:07
to hear your thoughts If you made it
00:16:08
this far I appreciate you I hope you
00:16:10
have a wonderful rest of your day Smash
00:16:12
the like button Subscribe if you haven't
00:16:13
already I'd love to see you back here
00:16:15
next week I'll see you soon
