00:00:12
I want you to reimagine
how life is organized on earth.
00:00:18
Think of the planet
like a human body that we inhabit.
00:00:24
The skeleton is the transportation system
of roads and railways,
00:00:28
bridges and tunnels, air and seaports
00:00:31
that enable our mobility
across the continents.
00:00:34
The vascular system that powers the body
00:00:38
are the oil and gas pipelines
and electricity grids.
00:00:40
that distribute energy.
00:00:42
And the nervous system of communications
00:00:45
is the Internet cables,
satellites, cellular networks
00:00:49
and data centers that allow
us to share information.
00:00:53
This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix
00:00:57
already consists of 64 million
kilometers of roads,
00:01:02
four million kilometers of railways,
00:01:05
two million kilometers of pipelines
00:01:08
and one million kilometers
of Internet cables.
00:01:13
What about international borders?
00:01:16
We have less than
500,000 kilometers of borders.
00:01:21
Let's build a better map of the world.
00:01:24
And we can start by overcoming
some ancient mythology.
00:01:29
There's a saying with which
all students of history are familiar:
00:01:33
"Geography is destiny."
00:01:35
Sounds so grave, doesn't it?
00:01:38
It's such a fatalistic adage.
00:01:40
It tells us that landlocked countries
are condemned to be poor,
00:01:44
that small countries
cannot escape their larger neighbors,
00:01:47
that vast distances are insurmountable.
00:01:51
But every journey I take around the world,
00:01:55
I see an even greater force
sweeping the planet:
00:01:59
connectivity.
00:02:02
The global connectivity revolution,
in all of its forms --
00:02:05
transportation, energy
and communications --
00:02:08
has enabled such a quantum leap
in the mobility of people,
00:02:12
of goods, of resources, of knowledge,
00:02:15
such that we can no longer even think
of geography as distinct from it.
00:02:20
In fact, I view the two forces
as fusing together
00:02:24
into what I call "connectography."
00:02:28
Connectography represents a quantum leap
00:02:32
in the mobility of people,
resources and ideas,
00:02:35
but it is an evolution,
00:02:38
an evolution of the world
from political geography,
00:02:44
which is how we legally divide the world,
00:02:48
to functional geography,
00:02:50
which is how we actually use the world,
00:02:52
from nations and borders,
to infrastructure and supply chains.
00:02:57
Our global system is evolving
00:03:01
from the vertically integrated
empires of the 19th century,
00:03:04
through the horizontally interdependent
nations of the 20th century,
00:03:09
into a global network civilization
in the 21st century.
00:03:15
Connectivity, not sovereignty,
00:03:18
has become the organizing principle
of the human species.
00:03:22
(Applause)
00:03:27
We are becoming
this global network civilization
00:03:30
because we are literally building it.
00:03:33
All of the world's defense budgets
and military spending taken together
00:03:37
total just under
two trillion dollars per year.
00:03:40
Meanwhile, our global
infrastructure spending
00:03:42
is projected to rise
to nine trillion dollars per year
00:03:46
within the coming decade.
00:03:47
And, well, it should.
00:03:49
We have been living
off an infrastructure stock
00:03:52
meant for a world population
of three billion,
00:03:55
as our population has crossed
seven billion to eight billion
00:03:58
and eventually nine billion and more.
00:04:01
As a rule of thumb, we should spend
about one trillion dollars
00:04:06
on the basic infrastructure needs
of every billion people in the world.
00:04:11
Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead.
00:04:15
In 2015, China announced the creation
00:04:17
of the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank,
00:04:21
which together with a network
of other organizations
00:04:25
aims to construct a network
of iron and silk roads,
00:04:28
stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon.
00:04:31
And as all of this topographical
engineering unfolds,
00:04:35
we will likely spend more
on infrastructure in the next 40 years,
00:04:41
we will build more infrastructure
in the next 40 years,
00:04:44
than we have in the past 4,000 years.
00:04:48
Now let's stop and think
about it for a minute.
00:04:51
Spending so much more on building
the foundations of global society
00:04:56
rather than on the tools to destroy it
00:04:59
can have profound consequences.
00:05:01
Connectivity is how
we optimize the distribution
00:05:04
of people and resources around the world.
00:05:07
It is how mankind comes to be more
than just the sum of its parts.
00:05:12
I believe that is what is happening.
00:05:17
Connectivity has a twin megatrend
in the 21st century:
00:05:20
planetary urbanization.
00:05:24
Cities are the infrastructures
that most define us.
00:05:27
By 2030, more than two thirds
of the world's population
00:05:31
will live in cities.
00:05:32
And these are not
mere little dots on the map,
00:05:35
but they are vast archipelagos
stretching hundreds of kilometers.
00:05:39
Here we are in Vancouver,
00:05:40
at the head of the Cascadia Corridor
00:05:42
that stretches south
across the US border to Seattle.
00:05:46
The technology powerhouse
of Silicon Valley
00:05:48
begins north of San Francisco
down to San Jose
00:05:51
and across the bay to Oakland.
00:05:53
The sprawl of Los Angeles
now passes San Diego
00:05:56
across the Mexican border to Tijuana.
00:05:58
San Diego and Tijuana
now share an airport terminal
00:06:01
where you can exit into either country.
00:06:04
Eventually, a high-speed rail network
may connect the entire Pacific spine.
00:06:09
America's northeastern megalopolis
begins in Boston through New York
00:06:13
and Philadelphia to Washington.
00:06:15
It contains more than 50 million people
00:06:17
and also has plans
for a high-speed rail network.
00:06:20
But Asia is where we really see
the megacities coming together.
00:06:25
This continuous strip of light
from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka
00:06:29
contains more than 80 million people
00:06:31
and most of Japan's economy.
00:06:34
It is the world's largest megacity.
00:06:37
For now.
00:06:38
But in China, megacity clusters
are coming together
00:06:41
with populations
reaching 100 million people.
00:06:44
The Bohai Rim around Beijing,
00:06:46
The Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai
00:06:48
and the Pearl River Delta,
00:06:50
stretching from Hong Kong
north to Guangzhou.
00:06:52
And in the middle,
00:06:54
the Chongqing-Chengdu megacity cluster,
00:06:57
whose geographic footprint
is almost the same size
00:06:59
as the country of Austria.
00:07:03
And any number of these megacity clusters
00:07:05
has a GDP approaching
two trillion dollars --
00:07:08
that's almost the same
as all of India today.
00:07:11
So imagine if our global diplomatic
institutions, such as the G20,
00:07:17
were to base their membership
on economic size
00:07:20
rather than national representation.
00:07:23
Some Chinese megacities
may be in and have a seat at the table,
00:07:26
while entire countries,
like Argentina or Indonesia would be out.
00:07:32
Moving to India, whose population
will soon exceed that of China,
00:07:35
it too has a number of megacity clusters,
00:07:38
such as the Delhi Capital Region
00:07:40
and Mumbai.
00:07:42
In the Middle East,
00:07:43
Greater Tehran is absorbing
one third of Iran's population.
00:07:46
Most of Egypt's 80 million people
00:07:48
live in the corridor
between Cairo and Alexandria.
00:07:51
And in the gulf, a necklace
of city-states is forming,
00:07:55
from Bahrain and Qatar,
00:07:56
through the United Arab Emirates
to Muscat in Oman.
00:08:00
And then there's Lagos,
00:08:02
Africa's largest city
and Nigeria's commercial hub.
00:08:06
It has plans for a rail network
00:08:08
that will make it the anchor
of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,
00:08:13
stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana,
00:08:16
to Abidjan, the capital
of the Ivory Coast.
00:08:19
But these countries are suburbs of Lagos.
00:08:24
In a megacity world,
00:08:25
countries can be suburbs of cities.
00:08:30
By 2030, we will have as many
as 50 such megacity clusters in the world.
00:08:37
So which map tells you more?
00:08:39
Our traditional map
of 200 discrete nations
00:08:42
that hang on most of our walls,
00:08:44
or this map of the 50 megacity clusters?
00:08:48
And yet, even this is incomplete
00:08:50
because you cannot understand
any individual megacity
00:08:54
without understanding
its connections to the others.
00:08:58
People move to cities to be connected,
00:09:01
and connectivity
is why these cities thrive.
00:09:05
Any number of them,
such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow,
00:09:09
has a GDP approaching or exceeding
one third of one half
00:09:13
of their entire national GDP.
00:09:16
But equally importantly,
00:09:17
you cannot calculate
any of their individual value
00:09:20
without understanding
the role of the flows of people,
00:09:24
of finance, of technology
00:09:26
that enable them to thrive.
00:09:28
Take the Gauteng province of South Africa,
00:09:31
which contains Johannesburg
and the capital Pretoria.
00:09:34
It too represents just over
a third of South Africa's GDP.
00:09:38
But equally importantly,
it is home to the offices
00:09:41
of almost every single
multinational corporation
00:09:44
that invests directly into South Africa
00:09:47
and indeed, into the entire
African continent.
00:09:50
Cities want to be part
of global value chains.
00:09:54
They want to be part
of this global division of labor.
00:09:58
That is how cities think.
00:10:00
I've never met a mayor who said to me,
00:10:02
"I want my city to be cut off."
00:10:04
They know that their cities belong as much
00:10:07
to the global network civilization
as to their home countries.
00:10:14
Now, for many people,
urbanization causes great dismay.
00:10:18
They think cities are wrecking the planet.
00:10:21
But right now,
00:10:23
there are more than 200
intercity learning networks thriving.
00:10:27
That is as many as the number
of intergovernmental organizations
00:10:30
that we have.
00:10:32
And all of these intercity networks
are devoted to one purpose,
00:10:36
mankind's number one priority
in the 21st century:
00:10:41
sustainable urbanization.
00:10:44
Is it working?
00:10:46
Let's take climate change.
00:10:48
We know that summit after summit
in New York and Paris
00:10:51
is not going to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
00:10:54
But what we can see
is that transferring technology
00:10:57
and knowledge and policies between cities
00:11:00
is how we've actually begun to reduce
the carbon intensity of our economies.
00:11:05
Cities are learning from each other.
00:11:07
How to install zero-emissions buildings,
00:11:09
how to deploy electric
car-sharing systems.
00:11:12
In major Chinese cities,
00:11:14
they're imposing quotas
on the number of cars on the streets.
00:11:17
In many Western cities,
00:11:18
young people don't even
want to drive anymore.
00:11:21
Cities have been part of the problem,
00:11:23
now they are part of the solution.
00:11:26
Inequality is the other great challenge
to achieving sustainable urbanization.
00:11:31
When I travel through megacities
from end to end --
00:11:35
it takes hours and days --
00:11:37
I experience the tragedy
of extreme disparity
00:11:41
within the same geography.
00:11:44
And yet, our global stock
of financial assets
00:11:47
has never been larger,
00:11:48
approaching 300 trillion dollars.
00:11:52
That's almost four times
the actual GDP of the world.
00:11:56
We have taken on such enormous debts
since the financial crisis,
00:12:01
but have we invested them
in inclusive growth?
00:12:04
No, not yet.
00:12:07
Only when we build sufficient,
affordable public housing,
00:12:11
when we invest in robust
transportation networks
00:12:14
to allow people to connect to each other
both physically and digitally,
00:12:19
that's when our divided
cities and societies
00:12:21
will come to feel whole again.
00:12:23
(Applause)
00:12:27
And that is why infrastructure
has just been included
00:12:30
in the United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals,
00:12:33
because it enables all the others.
00:12:36
Our political and economic leaders
00:12:37
are learning that connectivity
is not charity,
00:12:41
it's opportunity.
00:12:43
And that's why our financial community
needs to understand
00:12:45
that connectivity is the most
important asset class of the 21st century.
00:12:52
Now, cities can make the world
more sustainable,
00:12:56
they can make the world more equitable,
00:12:58
I also believe that
connectivity between cities
00:13:01
can make the world more peaceful.
00:13:04
If we look at regions of the world
with dense relations across borders,
00:13:08
we see more trade, more investment
00:13:11
and more stability.
00:13:12
We all know the story
of Europe after World War II,
00:13:15
where industrial integration
kicked off a process
00:13:17
that gave rise to today's
peaceful European Union.
00:13:21
And you can see that Russia, by the way,
00:13:23
is the least connected of major powers
in the international system.
00:13:28
And that goes a long way
towards explaining the tensions today.
00:13:32
Countries that have
less stake in the system
00:13:34
also have less to lose in disturbing it.
00:13:38
In North America, the lines
that matter most on the map
00:13:41
are not the US-Canada border
or the US-Mexico border,
00:13:45
but the dense network of roads
and railways and pipelines
00:13:48
and electricity grids
and even water canals
00:13:51
that are forming an integrated
North American union.
00:13:55
North America does not need more walls,
it needs more connections.
00:14:00
(Applause)
00:14:07
But the real promise of connectivity
is in the postcolonial world.
00:14:12
All of those regions where borders
have historically been the most arbitrary
00:14:16
and where generations of leaders
00:14:18
have had hostile relations
with each other.
00:14:21
But now a new group of leaders
has come into power
00:14:23
and is burying the hatchet.
00:14:25
Let's take Southeast Asia,
where high-speed rail networks
00:14:28
are planned to connect
Bangkok to Singapore
00:14:31
and trade corridors
from Vietnam to Myanmar.
00:14:34
Now this region of 600 million people
coordinates its agricultural resources
00:14:39
and its industrial output.
00:14:41
It is evolving
into what I call a Pax Asiana,
00:14:46
a peace among Southeast Asian nations.
00:14:50
A similar phenomenon
is underway in East Africa,
00:14:53
where a half dozen countries
00:14:54
are investing in railways
and multimodal corridors
00:14:57
so that landlocked countries
can get their goods to market.
00:15:01
Now these countries
coordinate their utilities
00:15:03
and their investment policies.
00:15:05
They, too, are evolving
into a Pax Africana.
00:15:11
One region we know could
especially use this kind of thinking
00:15:14
is the Middle East.
00:15:16
As Arab states tragically collapse,
00:15:18
what is left behind
but the ancient cities,
00:15:21
such as Cairo, Beirut and Baghdad?
00:15:24
In fact, the nearly
400 million people of the Arab world
00:15:29
are almost entirely urbanized.
00:15:31
As societies, as cities,
00:15:33
they are either water rich or water poor,
00:15:35
energy rich or energy poor.
00:15:38
And the only way
to correct these mismatches
00:15:40
is not through more wars and more borders,
00:15:43
but through more connectivity
of pipelines and water canals.
00:15:48
Sadly, this is not yet
the map of the Middle East.
00:15:52
But it should be,
00:15:54
a connected Pax Arabia,
00:15:58
internally integrated
00:16:00
and productively connected
to its neighbors: Europe, Asia and Africa.
00:16:04
Now, it may not seem like connectivity
is what we want right now
00:16:07
towards the world's most turbulent region.
00:16:10
But we know from history
that more connectivity is the only way
00:16:14
to bring about stability in the long run.
00:16:16
Because we know
that in region after region,
00:16:19
connectivity is the new reality.
00:16:22
Cities and countries
are learning to aggregate
00:16:25
into more peaceful and prosperous wholes.
00:16:29
But the real test is going to be Asia.
00:16:33
Can connectivity overcome
the patterns of rivalry
00:16:36
among the great powers of the Far East?
00:16:38
After all, this is where World War III
is supposed to break out.
00:16:43
Since the end of the Cold War,
a quarter century ago,
00:16:47
at least six major wars
have been predicted for this region.
00:16:50
But none have broken out.
00:16:53
Take China and Taiwan.
00:16:55
In the 1990s, this was everyone's
leading World War III scenario.
00:17:00
But since that time,
00:17:01
the trade and investment volumes
across the straits have become so intense
00:17:06
that last November,
00:17:07
leaders from both sides
held a historic summit
00:17:10
to discuss eventual
peaceful reunification.
00:17:13
And even the election
of a nationalist party in Taiwan
00:17:16
that's pro-independence earlier this year
00:17:19
does not undermine
this fundamental dynamic.
00:17:23
China and Japan have
an even longer history of rivalry
00:17:26
and have been deploying
their air forces and navies
00:17:28
to show their strength in island disputes.
00:17:31
But in recent years,
00:17:32
Japan has been making
its largest foreign investments in China.
00:17:36
Japanese cars are selling
in record numbers there.
00:17:40
And guess where
the largest number of foreigners
00:17:43
residing in Japan today comes from?
00:17:46
You guessed it: China.
00:17:49
China and India have fought a major war
00:17:51
and have three outstanding
border disputes,
00:17:53
but today India is the second
largest shareholder
00:17:56
in the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank.
00:17:58
They're building a trade corridor
stretching from Northeast India
00:18:01
through Myanmar and Bangladesh
to Southern China.
00:18:06
Their trade volume has grown
from 20 billion dollars a decade ago
00:18:10
to 80 billion dollars today.
00:18:12
Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan
have fought three wars
00:18:15
and continue to dispute Kashmir,
00:18:17
but they're also negotiating
a most-favored-nation trade agreement
00:18:21
and want to complete a pipeline
00:18:23
stretching from Iran
through Pakistan to India.
00:18:27
And let's talk about Iran.
00:18:29
Wasn't it just two years ago
that war with Iran seemed inevitable?
00:18:33
Then why is every single major power
rushing to do business there today?
00:18:40
Ladies and gentlemen,
00:18:41
I cannot guarantee
that World War III will not break out.
00:18:46
But we can definitely see
why it hasn't happened yet.
00:18:50
Even though Asia is home
to the world's fastest growing militaries,
00:18:54
these same countries
are also investing billions of dollars
00:18:58
in each other's infrastructure
and supply chains.
00:19:00
They are more interested
in each other's functional geography
00:19:04
than in their political geography.
00:19:07
And that is why their leaders think twice,
step back from the brink,
00:19:12
and decide to focus on economic ties
over territorial tensions.
00:19:18
So often it seems
like the world is falling apart,
00:19:21
but building more connectivity
00:19:23
is how we put Humpty Dumpty
back together again,
00:19:27
much better than before.
00:19:29
And by wrapping the world
00:19:31
in such seamless physical
and digital connectivity,
00:19:34
we evolve towards a world
00:19:36
in which people can rise
above their geographic constraints.
00:19:40
We are the cells and vessels
00:19:44
pulsing through these global
connectivity networks.
00:19:47
Everyday, hundreds of millions
of people go online
00:19:51
and work with people they've never met.
00:19:53
More than one billion people
cross borders every year,
00:19:57
and that's expected to rise
to three billion in the coming decade.
00:20:02
We don't just build connectivity,
00:20:04
we embody it.
00:20:06
We are the global network civilization,
00:20:10
and this is our map.
00:20:13
A map of the world in which
geography is no longer destiny.
00:20:18
Instead, the future
has a new and more hopeful motto:
00:20:23
connectivity is destiny.
00:20:26
Thank you.
00:20:27
(Applause)
