What's Really Happening at the Border | Glenn Loury & Daniel Di Martino | The Glenn Show

00:51:03
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TpPEWOmZJ8

Resumen

TLDRIn einem ausführlichen Dialog diskutieren Glenn Lowry und Daniel D. Martino über die Herausforderungen und Reformmöglichkeiten der US-amerikanischen Einwanderungspolitik. Martino, selbst Einwanderer aus Venezuela und Wirtschaftswissenschaftler, schlägt vor, dass die USA mehr in die Bearbeitung von Asylanträgen investieren und darauf abzielen sollten, hochqualifizierte Einwanderer anzulocken, um langfristige wirtschaftliche Vorteile zu erzielen. Sie sprechen über die Probleme mit illegaler Einwanderung an der Südgrenze und die politischen Auswirkungen, die sowohl unter Trump als auch unter Biden beobachtet wurden. Martino erklärt den wirtschaftlichen Nutzen hochqualifizierter Einwanderer und betont die Notwendigkeit für ein effizienteres System. Die Diskussion umfasst auch persönliche Geschichten und wirtschaftliche Analysen zur aktuellen Situation, wobei Martino betont, dass ohne zusätzliche Mittel von Kongress keine wirkliche Lösung in Sicht sei.

Para llevar

  • 🗣️ Die Debatte über Einwanderung verschärft sich aufgrund wirtschaftlicher und politischer Faktoren.
  • 💡 Eine mögliche Lösung ist die Investition in schnellere Asylverfahren.
  • 🏆 Hochqualifizierte Einwanderer könnten die US-Wirtschaft erheblich stärken.
  • 🔄 Der Unterschied zwischen den Politiken von Trump und Biden liegt oft im wahrgenommenen Ansatz.
  • 📉 Die ökonomische Stagnation Venezuelas ist ein warnendes Beispiel.
  • 🛑 Effektive Grenzsicherung erfordert mehr als präsidiale Dekrete.
  • 📊 Analysen zeigen, dass hochqualifizierte Einwanderer weitaus mehr beitragen als kosten.
  • 🎓 Systeme, die hochqualifizierten Migranten den Zugang erleichtern, könnten von großem Vorteil sein.
  • ⚖️ Ungleiche Behandlung in den Verfahren kann zu unfairen Ergebnissen führen.
  • 📚 Bildung und Wirtschaft sind Schlüsselthemen in der Einwanderungsdebatte.

Cronología

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    In diesem Gespräch wird die Notwendigkeit einer mehr fokussierten Immigrationspolitik diskutiert, die sich auf hochqualifizierte Fachkräfte konzentriert. Der Sprecher argumentiert, dass eine solche Politik zur Reduzierung der Einkommensungleichheit beitragen kann, da diese Immigranten nicht mit gering qualifizierten Arbeitsplätzen konkurrieren.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Als Venezolaner teilt Daniel D. Martino seine Erfahrungen über die katastrophale Wirtschaftslage in Venezuela unter sozialistischer Führung und zieht Parallelen zur US-Einwanderungspolitik. Er unterstreicht die negativen Folgen von Überregulierung und Enteignung durch die Regierung.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Die Diskussion dreht sich um die hohen Einwanderungszahlen an der US-Südgrenze und die Rolle der derzeitigen Verwaltung bei der Bewältigung dieser Krise. Es wird argumentiert, dass ein großer Teil der Immigration aus globalen Arbeitsmarkttrends resultiert.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Es wird erörtert, dass nicht-mexikanische Einwanderer schwerer aus den USA abgeschoben werden können, was ein zentrales Problem darstellt. Die Ineffizienz des derzeitigen Asylsystems wird hervorgehoben, insbesondere die Herausforderung, Asylanträge schnell zu bearbeiten.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Die derzeitige amerikanische Immigrationspolitik wird mit globalen Trends verglichen, und es wird die Einschränkung der Abschiebung problematischer Einwanderer thematisiert. Ein effektives Abschiebesystem wird als notwendig erachtet, um die Sicherheit zu erhöhen.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    Die Auswirkungen von politischem Druck und der öffentlichen Wahrnehmung von Einwanderungspolitiken, einschließlich des Rückgangs illegaler Grenzüberschreitungen während Trumps Amtszeit, werden diskutiert. Die Bedeutung der Wahrnehmung in der Politik wird hervorgehoben.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    In Bezug auf die Asylantragsbearbeitung wird die Notwendigkeit einer Finanzierung zur Erhöhung der Effizienz betont, um die Asylanträge innerhalb weniger Wochen oder Monate abzuschließen. Maßnahmen zur Beschleunigung der Asylverfahren werden als notwendig angesehen.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    Die Diskussion geht weiter mit den ökonomischen Auswirkungen der Immigrationspolitik auf die USA, insbesondere den positiven Beiträgen hochqualifizierter Immigranten zur Wirtschaft und zum Haushalt. Die Notwendigkeit, mehr hochqualifizierte Fachkräfte anzuziehen, wird hervorgehoben.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:45:00

    Es wird ermittelt, dass ein System, das Hochqualifizierte bevorzugt, sinnvoller wäre. Der Gesprächspartner spricht sich dafür aus, das derzeitige System zu reformieren und hochqualifizierte Einwanderer zu priorisieren, um wirtschaftliche Vorteile zu erzielen.

  • 00:45:00 - 00:51:03

    Zum Abschluss wird darüber gesprochen, wie eine ideale Einwanderungspolitik für die Zukunft aussehen könnte, die auf einer effizienten Grenzsicherung und einer selektiv ausgerichteten Immigration basiert. Die Bedeutung einer balancierten Politik, die sowohl Humanität als auch wirtschaftliche Interessen berücksichtigt, wird betont.

Ver más

Mapa mental

Mind Map

Preguntas frecuentes

  • Was ist das Problem an der US-Südgrenze?

    Das Problem an der Südgrenze besteht darin, dass jährlich Millionen von Menschen unkontrolliert einreisen, was sowohl Sicherheits- als auch wirtschaftliche Probleme verursacht.

  • Was sagt Daniel D. Martino über hochqualifizierte Einwanderer?

    Daniel D. Martino betont die Notwendigkeit, dass die USA mehr hochqualifizierte Einwanderer anziehen sollten, um wirtschaftlich zu profitieren und Einkommensungleichheiten zu verringern.

  • Wer ist Daniel D. Martino?

    Daniel D. Martino kommt aus Venezuela und lebt seit 2016 in den USA. Er ist ein Wirtschaftsstudent und ein Einwanderungsanalyst.

  • Welche Belastungen und Beiträge werden in Bezug auf Einwanderer evaluiert?

    Die Kosten umfassen öffentliche Dienstleistungen und Sozialleistungen, während die Beiträge Steuern und wirtschaftliche Vorteile umfassen.

  • Welche Lösungsvorschläge macht Daniel D. Martino für die Grenzpolitik?

    Er legt den Schwerpunkt auf mehr finanzielle Mittel für Einwanderungsrichter und infrastrukturelle Unterstützung an der Grenze.

  • Wie beeinflusste die Biden-Administration die Südgrenze?

    Biden's Politikänderungen schufen eher die Wahrnehmung, dass die Grenze offen sei, was mehr Menschen anlockte, ohne signifikante rechtliche Änderungen umzusetzen.

  • Warum wurde Hugo Chavez in Venezuela gewählt?

    Chavez wurde gewählt, weil viele Venezolaner des status quo müde waren. Seine sozialistischen Politiken wurden jedoch als Ursache für den Niedergang Venezuelas gesehen.

  • Gibt es wirtschaftliche Faktoren, die die Migration beeinflussen?

    Ja, vor allem mit der hohen Zahl offener Stellen in den USA, die die Anziehungskraft auf illegale Immigration erhöht haben.

  • Wie schwer ist es für hochqualifizierte Einwanderer aus Indien, in den USA einen Aufenthaltstitel zu bekommen?

    Ein Nobelpreisträger aus Indien wäre aufgrund von Landeskontingenten mit langen Wartezeiten konfrontiert.

  • Was ist das "Temporary Protected Status" (TPS) Programm?

    TPS bietet bestimmten Einwanderern eine legale Statusänderung, wie etwa die Haitianer in den USA, um rechtlich dort zu bleiben.

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Desplazamiento automático:
  • 00:00:00
    so what can be done about that I it's
  • 00:00:02
    not at all clear to me what a policy fix
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    would be that wouldn't involve turning
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    people away when they're apprehended at
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    the border I I do think that there is a
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    fix within the current framework that is
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    doable just with money and it will
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    require money from Congress for sure
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    that's the thing this is impossible to
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    do with presidential action I think
  • 00:00:20
    people are deluding themselves if they
  • 00:00:22
    think Trump on on the day number one
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    everything's going to change some things
  • 00:00:26
    are going to change because he has this
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    scare mongering effect on illegal
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    immigrants that there's going to be
  • 00:00:32
    fewer people coming at first but the the
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    source of the issue is not going to
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    change so imagine you had a huge influx
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    of more High skilled immigrants instead
  • 00:00:42
    of low skill we get high skill who's
  • 00:00:44
    going to be negatively affected fication
  • 00:00:46
    is not going to compete with the cook in
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    the restaurant right so the restaurant
  • 00:00:50
    wages and the low skill wages are going
  • 00:00:52
    to be unaffected if anything there is
  • 00:00:54
    more demand for their services they're
  • 00:00:56
    actually going to go up their wages
  • 00:00:58
    that's going to have them second effects
  • 00:01:00
    right and in the high school sector you
  • 00:01:02
    could say well we're going to get lower
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    wages for college professor as if that
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    wasn't already the case right like most
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    college professors are for in anyway and
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    doctors and all of that well in this is
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    why actually High schill immigration
  • 00:01:14
    reduces income inequality hello Daniel
  • 00:01:16
    how are you hey Glenn good all great how
  • 00:01:19
    are you I'm doing well doing well thank
  • 00:01:22
    you this is Glenn Lowry if you're
  • 00:01:24
    looking at this you've tuned into to the
  • 00:01:25
    Glenn show uh I'm a professor at Ground
  • 00:01:27
    University and John Paulson senior
  • 00:01:29
    fellow at the Manhattan Institute and
  • 00:01:32
    this week I'm talking with Daniel D
  • 00:01:35
    Martino uh who is a graduate fellow at
  • 00:01:38
    the Manhattan Institute we're colleagues
  • 00:01:40
    and a doctoral student PhD student in
  • 00:01:44
    economics at Columbia University writes
  • 00:01:46
    about immigration and that's why I asked
  • 00:01:49
    Daniel on the program so we could talk
  • 00:01:51
    about what he knows mind his uh uh
  • 00:01:55
    wisdom uh on the immigration question
  • 00:01:57
    and get the benefit of him dealing with
  • 00:01:59
    the and whatnot estimating the uh impact
  • 00:02:03
    on fiscal uh stability of American
  • 00:02:06
    government of immigration flows and
  • 00:02:09
    arguing passionately for the importance
  • 00:02:12
    of uh targeting immigration toward
  • 00:02:14
    high-skilled people who bring a lot of
  • 00:02:16
    value added when they come and so forth
  • 00:02:18
    and so on but anyway Daniel thanks uh
  • 00:02:20
    for doing the program thanks thanks for
  • 00:02:22
    having me very excited on first time we
  • 00:02:24
    talk to yeah yeah it's good to meet
  • 00:02:27
    you uh so where you from yeah I'm from
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    Venezuela um in South America as you
  • 00:02:35
    probably know from the news a lot of
  • 00:02:37
    things going on uh in my native country
  • 00:02:40
    so you are an immigrant yourself do you
  • 00:02:43
    uh intend to make your life here in the
  • 00:02:46
    United States yeah and um so let me tell
  • 00:02:50
    you a little bit about that story so I I
  • 00:02:52
    came in 2016 to to the US uh Venezuela
  • 00:02:56
    was already in a terrible of course mess
  • 00:02:59
    was born the same year that the current
  • 00:03:01
    socialist regime took over in 1999 I'm
  • 00:03:04
    25 years old and well I saw how my life
  • 00:03:08
    and everything around me was being
  • 00:03:10
    destroyed uh with inflation with
  • 00:03:12
    shortages crime then more people started
  • 00:03:16
    leaving uh no teachers in the schools
  • 00:03:19
    blackouts no water you know now that
  • 00:03:22
    people are talking about pets and
  • 00:03:24
    whatever and immigrants like Su the the
  • 00:03:27
    animals in the Sue being eaten because
  • 00:03:29
    there's no food in Venezuela everything
  • 00:03:31
    you can imagine happen and so it's very
  • 00:03:34
    sad because Venezuela used to be a rich
  • 00:03:36
    and free and prosperous country uh it's
  • 00:03:40
    a country that welcome my grandparents
  • 00:03:41
    who were also immigrants in Venezuela um
  • 00:03:44
    in the 50s and it's a country that
  • 00:03:46
    welcome millions of people all
  • 00:03:48
    throughout its history and so I came to
  • 00:03:50
    America I got a full right scholarship
  • 00:03:52
    in 2016 to go to
  • 00:03:55
    Indiana I graduated from Indiana worked
  • 00:03:57
    in Kentucky and getting my PhD at
  • 00:04:01
    Columbia New York City that's uh Indiana
  • 00:04:04
    University in Bloomington no in
  • 00:04:06
    Indianapolis I went to Indianapolis
  • 00:04:08
    campus uhuh the little sister the the
  • 00:04:11
    more serious campus Bloomington is the
  • 00:04:13
    party
  • 00:04:14
    campus so what happened in Venezuela
  • 00:04:18
    what what went wrong well what went
  • 00:04:20
    wrong was that for the first time I
  • 00:04:24
    would say in history country
  • 00:04:27
    democratically elects a socialist tyan
  • 00:04:29
    into
  • 00:04:30
    power and uh because think about it
  • 00:04:33
    right like when you think about all the
  • 00:04:35
    other socialist Nations throughout
  • 00:04:37
    history none of them were democratically
  • 00:04:39
    elected uh but Venezuela was in 1998
  • 00:04:43
    December Hugo Chavez won the election
  • 00:04:46
    with a very large majority of the vote
  • 00:04:48
    uh because people were tired of the
  • 00:04:50
    establishment of Corruption of you know
  • 00:04:52
    we we were in there were some problems
  • 00:04:54
    economically in the late 90s uh that
  • 00:04:57
    people were mad about rightfully the
  • 00:04:59
    problem was that Chavez was not the
  • 00:05:00
    solution Chavez began nationalizing land
  • 00:05:02
    he rewrote the
  • 00:05:04
    Constitution um he began imposing price
  • 00:05:07
    controls on everything for bidding
  • 00:05:09
    foreign exchange currency um uh from
  • 00:05:12
    from being purchased inside the country
  • 00:05:15
    um to Capital controls uh he began um
  • 00:05:20
    yeah just destroying the whole private
  • 00:05:22
    sector with regulations and and taxes
  • 00:05:24
    and and takeovers eventually what
  • 00:05:27
    happened was that obviously private
  • 00:05:28
    invested plummeted he began spending
  • 00:05:30
    massive amounts of money Venezuela has
  • 00:05:32
    the largest oil reserves in the planet
  • 00:05:34
    by the way so if a country should be
  • 00:05:36
    rich is Venezuela I joke to people and I
  • 00:05:39
    tell them that I shouldn't be here in
  • 00:05:41
    the US talking to anyone I should be in
  • 00:05:44
    a Lamborghini in Caracas in an
  • 00:05:46
    alternative history uh timeline like all
  • 00:05:49
    the Emirates Emirate emiratis in Dubai
  • 00:05:52
    right uh where 90% of the population is
  • 00:05:55
    like their foreign workers that work for
  • 00:05:57
    them and then they have all this great
  • 00:05:59
    cars and jets um because that's what
  • 00:06:02
    happens when you have oil and private
  • 00:06:04
    property right you you become incredibly
  • 00:06:07
    wealthy but Venezuela wasted all of that
  • 00:06:10
    in free food free gasoline free water
  • 00:06:13
    free electricity Free Housing and even
  • 00:06:17
    that money from oil was not enough to
  • 00:06:19
    pay for all of that so the government
  • 00:06:21
    printed money and led to hyperinflation
  • 00:06:24
    that destroyed our purchasing power I
  • 00:06:26
    became extremely poor from being middle
  • 00:06:30
    class why was Chavez so popular you say
  • 00:06:32
    voted in yes were the people uh
  • 00:06:36
    justified in the resentment that they
  • 00:06:37
    might have had toward wealthy and uh
  • 00:06:40
    corporations were they were were there
  • 00:06:43
    legitimate concerns about Venezuelan
  • 00:06:45
    wealth being somehow expropriated by uh
  • 00:06:48
    and not redounding to the benefit of the
  • 00:06:50
    people that Chavez uh
  • 00:06:54
    represented yeah I would say Venezuela's
  • 00:06:57
    problem was that he was stagnant since
  • 00:06:59
    the '90s if you see the GDP per capita
  • 00:07:03
    of Venezuela there's basically no growth
  • 00:07:05
    from the mid90s to the mid from the
  • 00:07:06
    mid-70s to the mid90s 20
  • 00:07:09
    years and the main reason I would argue
  • 00:07:12
    is because in 1976 is when oil the oil
  • 00:07:15
    sector was completely nationalized and
  • 00:07:17
    even in the Democratic period the
  • 00:07:19
    politicians began just using the oil
  • 00:07:21
    money to redistribute and in order to do
  • 00:07:24
    it and not cause hyperinflation they
  • 00:07:25
    just reduced Capital investments in the
  • 00:07:28
    oil company so oil production began
  • 00:07:31
    gradually falling since the 70s and so
  • 00:07:34
    yeah they could redistribute and it was
  • 00:07:36
    great in the beginning in the first few
  • 00:07:38
    years but as oil production fell uh and
  • 00:07:41
    the government became subject to the
  • 00:07:42
    whims of the oil markets internationally
  • 00:07:45
    because that's where the revenue came
  • 00:07:46
    from then it created a lot of volatility
  • 00:07:49
    it created a lot of um gradual decline
  • 00:07:51
    in the country and Chavis was a guy who
  • 00:07:54
    came promising that you know blame those
  • 00:07:57
    problems on the politicians which yeah
  • 00:07:58
    it was their fault his problem was the
  • 00:08:00
    solution right the solution was not more
  • 00:08:03
    socialism it was free markets and he
  • 00:08:05
    just doubled down on the
  • 00:08:07
    Socialist yeah and and yeah people were
  • 00:08:09
    resentful he he he he SED a lot of that
  • 00:08:13
    resentment uh against the rich it was
  • 00:08:16
    really a class thing for for him and and
  • 00:08:20
    it's a shame right because now what
  • 00:08:22
    people say in Venezuela it's a really uh
  • 00:08:24
    harrowing quote but it's common place is
  • 00:08:27
    that we were rich but we didn't know it
  • 00:08:32
    do you go back no no and in fact today I
  • 00:08:35
    would probably be tortured if I went
  • 00:08:37
    back me just for what I've done on TV
  • 00:08:39
    and and media against the government in
  • 00:08:41
    fact I have a friend who is in jail
  • 00:08:43
    right now and she has been there for
  • 00:08:45
    over a month Wow Let's talk about the
  • 00:08:49
    US do we have a crisis uh at the
  • 00:08:52
    southern border I would argue yeah I
  • 00:08:56
    would say yes you know when there any
  • 00:08:58
    definition I would say yes
  • 00:09:01
    why who's whose fault is it in your
  • 00:09:03
    opinion well I would say it is a problem
  • 00:09:07
    that every year there are millions of
  • 00:09:10
    people coming in un vetted and illegally
  • 00:09:13
    through the southern border number one
  • 00:09:15
    it's a security issue right many of
  • 00:09:18
    these people have ended up committing
  • 00:09:19
    crimes uh legal immigrants and
  • 00:09:21
    immigrants in general commit far less
  • 00:09:23
    crime than native born Americans even
  • 00:09:27
    than native born whites by the way
  • 00:09:30
    immigrants on average commit less crime
  • 00:09:32
    than native born whites um yet the
  • 00:09:36
    problem is if you can stop criminal
  • 00:09:39
    immigrants from coming why wouldn't you
  • 00:09:41
    want to I'm talking about gang members
  • 00:09:43
    people who that are known to be
  • 00:09:45
    dangerous you would want to stop them
  • 00:09:47
    all and uh the problem is that that's
  • 00:09:50
    not what's happening they're just
  • 00:09:52
    basically letting them in sealing them
  • 00:09:54
    giving them a notice to appear in court
  • 00:09:55
    and then they're being released and I
  • 00:09:57
    think that that is both the fault of the
  • 00:10:01
    current president the current
  • 00:10:03
    presidential Administration but it's
  • 00:10:05
    also really part of global Trends and I
  • 00:10:07
    think that's underestimated on the right
  • 00:10:09
    the labor market in the US has been
  • 00:10:11
    booming with job openings and there's a
  • 00:10:14
    very high correlation between job
  • 00:10:16
    openings in the US and illegal
  • 00:10:18
    immigration and then the other issue
  • 00:10:21
    comes from who is coming before say 20
  • 00:10:25
    years ago 90% of people crossing the
  • 00:10:27
    border were Mexican
  • 00:10:29
    today maybe two-thirds are not
  • 00:10:33
    Mexican and it's very easy to send back
  • 00:10:36
    a Mexican because you just send them
  • 00:10:37
    right across the border to their own
  • 00:10:39
    country of citizenship there's no
  • 00:10:41
    questions asked but you cannot send to
  • 00:10:44
    Mexico people from we not Mexican Mexico
  • 00:10:46
    is a sovereign country too and once
  • 00:10:48
    they're in US Territory that's not
  • 00:10:49
    Mexico's problem and Mexico doesn't want
  • 00:10:51
    them with a good reason and so uh what
  • 00:10:55
    happens now is that you can't Deport
  • 00:10:57
    somebody from Venezuela let's say you
  • 00:10:59
    can't Deport somebody from Haiti you
  • 00:11:01
    can't Deport somebody from you can't
  • 00:11:02
    Deport people even from China China is
  • 00:11:04
    not accepting deported
  • 00:11:06
    citizens because why would they right
  • 00:11:09
    they they use this as a foreign policy
  • 00:11:11
    tool to extract concessions from the
  • 00:11:13
    United States and and so immigration has
  • 00:11:17
    become a foreign policy issue
  • 00:11:19
    too just on the deportation question a
  • 00:11:22
    candidate and former president Trump
  • 00:11:24
    promises to
  • 00:11:25
    deport uh illegal immigrants on what
  • 00:11:29
    you've just said it's not clear that
  • 00:11:30
    that's a feasible thing to do yeah it's
  • 00:11:33
    I I don't think it's going to happen uh
  • 00:11:36
    I think the whole thing about mass
  • 00:11:37
    deportations is a great campaign slogan
  • 00:11:39
    but that's not going to happen I think
  • 00:11:41
    optimistically Trump will be able to
  • 00:11:42
    deport a million people in four years
  • 00:11:45
    and it won't be the million people that
  • 00:11:47
    people really want to deport it will be
  • 00:11:49
    the really terrible stories that are
  • 00:11:52
    going to cause family separation and
  • 00:11:54
    crying and political backlash because
  • 00:11:57
    what people don't understand is that
  • 00:11:59
    nobody who has a pending immigration
  • 00:12:01
    court date can be deported until their
  • 00:12:04
    case is resolved through immigration
  • 00:12:05
    courts and the people who have pending
  • 00:12:08
    dates are the recent illegal immigrants
  • 00:12:10
    who came under Biden so if Trump deports
  • 00:12:13
    somebody will be the people who came 20
  • 00:12:14
    years ago who have children here and are
  • 00:12:17
    going to have all these uh sad stories
  • 00:12:19
    on the media by the Democrats so if
  • 00:12:21
    people can somehow get themselves
  • 00:12:23
    physically on uh this side of the
  • 00:12:26
    border and uh establish a identity and a
  • 00:12:29
    presence within the judicial framework
  • 00:12:32
    that is I assume they're going for
  • 00:12:33
    Asylum and their case has to be
  • 00:12:35
    adjudicated they have a right to stay
  • 00:12:37
    until their case is adjudicated which
  • 00:12:39
    could be
  • 00:12:40
    years so de facto they could disappear
  • 00:12:43
    into the population and make their lives
  • 00:12:46
    here in the United States that's right
  • 00:12:48
    and because the salum hearing time is
  • 00:12:51
    taking over five years on average by
  • 00:12:55
    then many of those people already have
  • 00:12:57
    American kids too and then they
  • 00:13:00
    appeal and and then there's something
  • 00:13:02
    else that happens and so it's it's very
  • 00:13:05
    very difficult to to deal with it now
  • 00:13:07
    but that makes me think that the core of
  • 00:13:09
    the issue is the
  • 00:13:11
    um principle that people who can present
  • 00:13:16
    themselves have a have a kind of
  • 00:13:18
    standing or a right to make a claim and
  • 00:13:22
    it would be a
  • 00:13:24
    humanitarian uh disaster to deny them so
  • 00:13:28
    uh there's a there's a kind of moral
  • 00:13:31
    commitment uh to a kind of openness that
  • 00:13:35
    that is at at work there yeah well the
  • 00:13:38
    thing is that that's what the law says
  • 00:13:40
    because then the United States passed
  • 00:13:42
    the 1980 Refugee act that defines what a
  • 00:13:45
    refugee is and gives the right to claim
  • 00:13:48
    Asylum and if you wanted to modify that
  • 00:13:51
    you would need to pass the filibuster so
  • 00:13:53
    that's not changing anytime soon unless
  • 00:13:54
    you keep something in exchange to the
  • 00:13:57
    Democrats and that's going to require is
  • 00:13:59
    the mass amnesty so what can be done
  • 00:14:02
    about that I I it's not at all clear to
  • 00:14:04
    me what a policy fix would be that
  • 00:14:07
    wouldn't involve turning people away uh
  • 00:14:10
    when they're apprehended at the border I
  • 00:14:12
    I do think that there is a fix within
  • 00:14:14
    the current framework that is doable
  • 00:14:16
    just with
  • 00:14:18
    money and it will require money from
  • 00:14:21
    Congress for sure that's the thing this
  • 00:14:22
    is impossible to do with presidential
  • 00:14:24
    action I think people are deluding
  • 00:14:26
    themselves if they think Trump on on the
  • 00:14:29
    day number one everything's going to
  • 00:14:30
    change some things are going to change
  • 00:14:32
    because he has this scare mongering
  • 00:14:34
    effect on illegal immigrants that
  • 00:14:36
    there's going to be fewer people coming
  • 00:14:37
    at first but the the source of the issue
  • 00:14:40
    is not going to change for that um you
  • 00:14:44
    will need to say what is the incentive
  • 00:14:45
    to present yourself and make a false
  • 00:14:47
    Asylum claim is that you're going to be
  • 00:14:50
    allowed in right and we're are not going
  • 00:14:52
    to work and are going to live here for
  • 00:14:54
    several years we basically have a free
  • 00:14:56
    work visa you show up at the border
  • 00:14:58
    that's what we have and so if you want
  • 00:15:01
    to change that you want need to detain
  • 00:15:03
    people while their case is being heard
  • 00:15:06
    now you can't detain people for five
  • 00:15:08
    years that would be inhumane and
  • 00:15:11
    impossible too because of the numbers so
  • 00:15:15
    you will need to accelerate the Asylum
  • 00:15:17
    processing to just weeks or perhaps a
  • 00:15:20
    couple months now that requires money
  • 00:15:24
    because the number of immigration judges
  • 00:15:25
    that decides these cases Nationwide is
  • 00:15:27
    about 700
  • 00:15:29
    for over four million pending
  • 00:15:32
    cases so we're talking about you
  • 00:15:35
    probably need you
  • 00:15:37
    know well over an extra thousand new
  • 00:15:40
    immigration judges this is going to take
  • 00:15:42
    time you probably will need to do some
  • 00:15:45
    sort of reordering of the cases leave
  • 00:15:47
    current cases to the end perhaps even do
  • 00:15:49
    some sort of temporary amnesty for the
  • 00:15:51
    people that are already here and then
  • 00:15:52
    fix it for the people coming
  • 00:15:55
    forward I see what fraction of the cases
  • 00:15:59
    which do get eventually adjudicated are
  • 00:16:03
    rejected what what fraction are granted
  • 00:16:06
    Asylum do you know yeah so it depends on
  • 00:16:09
    the type of the people who come through
  • 00:16:11
    the Border who do defensive Asylum
  • 00:16:14
    claims it's it's less it's definitely
  • 00:16:17
    less than half but it's about a it's
  • 00:16:18
    about a quarter it really fluctuates by
  • 00:16:20
    year it's actually really interesting
  • 00:16:22
    when Trump was in office like 20 10%
  • 00:16:26
    approval and now with Biden is like 30
  • 00:16:28
    40 % approval um wow so this is
  • 00:16:32
    something people don't know that the
  • 00:16:33
    immigration court system is not article
  • 00:16:35
    thre they're not real judges they are
  • 00:16:39
    political appointees by the president by
  • 00:16:42
    the executive branch by Department of
  • 00:16:44
    Justice to terms of a fixed uh
  • 00:16:47
    period uh I I am not actually sure I
  • 00:16:50
    believe that it's like a regular judge
  • 00:16:52
    where it's until you
  • 00:16:53
    quit so the Trump judges were uh more
  • 00:16:56
    strict much more strict and some judges
  • 00:16:59
    by the way are obviously like illegally
  • 00:17:02
    strict there's a couple judges that have
  • 00:17:04
    never approved an asylum case in their
  • 00:17:06
    whole career wow and it's obvious that
  • 00:17:08
    there's something going on behind this
  • 00:17:10
    and if you see their history like they
  • 00:17:11
    work for like anti-immigration groups
  • 00:17:14
    and then the the Democrats appoint like
  • 00:17:16
    immigrant Rights group activists as
  • 00:17:18
    immigration judges themselves too and so
  • 00:17:21
    the the immigration court system is
  • 00:17:23
    really totally messed up what happens to
  • 00:17:26
    those whose cases are rejected or
  • 00:17:28
    declined right so they get put on
  • 00:17:30
    deportation proceedings the problem is
  • 00:17:33
    imagine you are from one country that
  • 00:17:36
    does not take deported citizens you will
  • 00:17:38
    be in a Perpetual deportation order
  • 00:17:41
    until somebody agrees to take you back
  • 00:17:44
    uh and until then you're allowed to stay
  • 00:17:45
    here what else are they going to
  • 00:17:48
    do and and by the way this this has
  • 00:17:51
    become a big issue with say the Afghans
  • 00:17:53
    who came here because Biden brought them
  • 00:17:55
    under the withdrawal right yeah um
  • 00:17:58
    Congress has been trying to pass What's
  • 00:18:00
    called the Afghan adjustment act which
  • 00:18:02
    would legalize all the Afghans who came
  • 00:18:05
    and because Congress has not pass it all
  • 00:18:07
    those Afghans are on the Asylum system
  • 00:18:09
    delaying further the cases from the
  • 00:18:12
    border by the way and we're talking
  • 00:18:13
    about maybe a 100,000 Afghans so they're
  • 00:18:16
    delaying the cases from the border
  • 00:18:18
    they're here if they get
  • 00:18:20
    rejected they can't be deported to
  • 00:18:22
    Afghanistan who's going to deport to
  • 00:18:24
    Afghanistan on what planes and what
  • 00:18:26
    flights it's controlled by the Taliban
  • 00:18:28
    you might will just give them amnesty
  • 00:18:30
    and approve them you don't want to keep
  • 00:18:31
    them under the shadows and delaying
  • 00:18:32
    everything else but Congress doesn't get
  • 00:18:34
    anything done so we we are stay we stay
  • 00:18:36
    with the status
  • 00:18:39
    quo so it is said that the Biden
  • 00:18:44
    Administration issued on day one changes
  • 00:18:47
    in Immigration policy that are
  • 00:18:48
    responsible in part for the crisis at
  • 00:18:50
    the border do you think that's correct
  • 00:18:53
    what did they change what's the
  • 00:18:55
    difference between as a practical matter
  • 00:18:59
    the border control policies of the
  • 00:19:01
    previous administration Trump and that
  • 00:19:03
    of the current
  • 00:19:05
    Administration yeah I I think there's a
  • 00:19:07
    lot of misconceptions about this that
  • 00:19:08
    are part of the political uh game but
  • 00:19:12
    the what Biden did do on those first
  • 00:19:15
    days was change the perception about the
  • 00:19:18
    border and that was a problem right he
  • 00:19:21
    created the perception that people would
  • 00:19:23
    be welcom and that triggered more people
  • 00:19:26
    to come just the perception actually
  • 00:19:29
    affects this when Trump was elected the
  • 00:19:32
    the number of people crossing the
  • 00:19:33
    southern border went down as soon as he
  • 00:19:35
    was sworn in and it wasn't because of
  • 00:19:37
    Any policy change that was effective on
  • 00:19:39
    number day number
  • 00:19:41
    one and and so I think it was the
  • 00:19:43
    perception um he did try to do some
  • 00:19:46
    damaging things like suspend all
  • 00:19:48
    deportations that worked for like a few
  • 00:19:50
    days and then the court said it was
  • 00:19:52
    illegal uh and so he never really
  • 00:19:54
    changed anything effectively uh the
  • 00:19:57
    people from the Trump campaign are argue
  • 00:19:59
    that Trump secure the border with the
  • 00:20:00
    remaining Mexico policy remaining Mexico
  • 00:20:03
    is this same concept I explain to you of
  • 00:20:05
    we need to detain people but they wanted
  • 00:20:07
    Mexico to retain them for the US now
  • 00:20:11
    that worked for a little bit but then
  • 00:20:13
    Mexico pulled out even before Biden came
  • 00:20:15
    into office because why would Mexico
  • 00:20:18
    detain hundreds of thousands of people
  • 00:20:20
    on behalf of the United States that's
  • 00:20:21
    not Mexico's problem now you could say
  • 00:20:24
    well Trump could threaten them with
  • 00:20:26
    tariffs or something sure you know maybe
  • 00:20:28
    some neg ation tactic we get Mexico to
  • 00:20:31
    to give us the free lunch right but but
  • 00:20:33
    I I'm I'm skeptical that at this flow
  • 00:20:36
    that's coming across the border of over
  • 00:20:39
    two million people a year Mexico is
  • 00:20:41
    going to detain two million people a
  • 00:20:43
    year on their side of the Border that's
  • 00:20:45
    an insane number to rain just on the
  • 00:20:48
    border okay you're you're a quantitative
  • 00:20:52
    Economist in the in the
  • 00:20:54
    making so causality is something that
  • 00:20:57
    you're interested in causal
  • 00:20:59
    inference how do we know as a matter of
  • 00:21:03
    causal inference that this
  • 00:21:09
    deterrent you know attraction rejection
  • 00:21:11
    theory is correct the the idea that I I
  • 00:21:14
    assume the way the model would work is
  • 00:21:16
    people are prospective uh immigrants
  • 00:21:20
    migrants making a decision about whether
  • 00:21:22
    or not to undertake the substantial cost
  • 00:21:24
    of reaching and crossing the US border
  • 00:21:27
    and are forward looking and anticipating
  • 00:21:31
    what the consequences at the net benefit
  • 00:21:33
    to them will be of course detention for
  • 00:21:36
    five years or anything like that is a is
  • 00:21:38
    a negative not a positive the chances of
  • 00:21:41
    actually succeeding in their ambition to
  • 00:21:44
    uh relocate to the United States you
  • 00:21:46
    know could be 7 it could be
  • 00:21:49
    .3 the job owning of Donald Trump or uh
  • 00:21:53
    Joseph Biden materially affects people's
  • 00:21:56
    estimate of that probability and they
  • 00:21:58
    decide to come or not come based upon
  • 00:22:00
    that
  • 00:22:01
    calculation uh I could see reasons for
  • 00:22:03
    doubting that I could see you know
  • 00:22:05
    people are desperate they come you know
  • 00:22:06
    they come regardless or they get they
  • 00:22:08
    have contacts they have Word of Mouth
  • 00:22:10
    they come they come because they know
  • 00:22:11
    someone else who
  • 00:22:12
    came uh but you know the the green eyes
  • 00:22:16
    shade calculation oh you know the
  • 00:22:17
    probability of success is only three
  • 00:22:19
    it's not worth it for me you
  • 00:22:22
    know how so how do you know how do you
  • 00:22:24
    know that that's really what's going on
  • 00:22:26
    well um I'll tell you one one thing uh
  • 00:22:29
    so it's word of mouth right and Word of
  • 00:22:32
    Mouth uh fake news and real news travel
  • 00:22:35
    really fast
  • 00:22:37
    both and when you get the news that
  • 00:22:40
    Trump is going to come I can assure you
  • 00:22:42
    things do change just because of the
  • 00:22:44
    tone in fact even regardless of
  • 00:22:46
    political candidates when Biden repealed
  • 00:22:50
    title
  • 00:22:51
    42 which was this pandemic policy that
  • 00:22:55
    meant you were automatically rejected
  • 00:22:57
    your case wasn't hurt because everybody
  • 00:22:59
    assumed you had Co that obviously wasn't
  • 00:23:01
    sustainable that was a health policy you
  • 00:23:03
    would need to assume people have Co we
  • 00:23:05
    know that's not a crisis anymore and and
  • 00:23:07
    even with title 42 we title lot other
  • 00:23:09
    issues if you are ever interested in
  • 00:23:11
    talking about it but that Sudden Change
  • 00:23:13
    in Immigration policy led to a spike in
  • 00:23:16
    border crossings right before it because
  • 00:23:18
    they announc it's going to happen um I
  • 00:23:20
    don't know September
  • 00:23:22
    30th the week before September 30th they
  • 00:23:25
    announced it like a week before that
  • 00:23:26
    week suddenly a ton of people who were
  • 00:23:28
    waiting Mexico started Crossing before
  • 00:23:30
    the policy Chang because that's the
  • 00:23:32
    thing there's a lot of people waiting in
  • 00:23:33
    Mexico who live there for a couple
  • 00:23:35
    months waiting to get to the
  • 00:23:38
    US uh they're working and they're just
  • 00:23:40
    standing by ready to cross the border
  • 00:23:42
    illegally from other countries they Liv
  • 00:23:44
    in camps in Mexico City across the
  • 00:23:46
    border and in other parts and right
  • 00:23:48
    after the changing the policy for Char
  • 00:23:50
    42 it suddenly dropped there's a huge
  • 00:23:54
    shock effect that happens it's temporary
  • 00:23:56
    I'm not saying it's a permanent shock
  • 00:23:57
    but it is a temporary shock um and and
  • 00:24:00
    the News does travel um I can tell you
  • 00:24:03
    from people that I've spoken to that
  • 00:24:04
    cross the border that are living in New
  • 00:24:07
    York City that have that have spoken at
  • 00:24:09
    the
  • 00:24:10
    shelters and they're heavily misinformed
  • 00:24:13
    I'll tell you they don't know anything
  • 00:24:16
    about the law or the legal process with
  • 00:24:18
    immigration uh many of them assume they
  • 00:24:21
    will eventually get legal automatically
  • 00:24:23
    that that's there's a process to do that
  • 00:24:25
    that they don't even need to apply for
  • 00:24:27
    Asylum
  • 00:24:28
    um and so they they believe fake news
  • 00:24:33
    really okay now I looked at some of your
  • 00:24:36
    stuff I know that you are uh involved in
  • 00:24:38
    trying to calculate what the uh burdens
  • 00:24:41
    are associated with people in terms of
  • 00:24:44
    drawing on public resources and also in
  • 00:24:48
    terms of uh contributions that people
  • 00:24:50
    are making uh who come and so on you
  • 00:24:52
    want to talk a little bit about that you
  • 00:24:54
    have a project that issued a report at
  • 00:24:56
    the Manhattan Institute on
  • 00:24:59
    targeting uh immigration toward more
  • 00:25:01
    highly skilled people you admire the
  • 00:25:03
    policies in Canada the Australia and
  • 00:25:06
    whatnot that give a premium uh in their
  • 00:25:08
    immigration policies to bringing in
  • 00:25:10
    people who can uh who have college
  • 00:25:12
    degrees and who have who have skills
  • 00:25:14
    you're worried about there not being
  • 00:25:16
    enough doctors uh around and so on uh
  • 00:25:19
    you think hb1 visas ought to be expanded
  • 00:25:22
    we're not getting enough Engineers uh
  • 00:25:24
    from and code coders from India and so
  • 00:25:27
    talk about that talk about that not
  • 00:25:28
    enough I know that's funny because you
  • 00:25:30
    people feel like there's a lot uh but
  • 00:25:33
    there really there it's really very very
  • 00:25:34
    few the flow of of Highly skilled
  • 00:25:38
    immigrants as a share of the population
  • 00:25:39
    and as a share of all immigrants coming
  • 00:25:41
    too and so uh let me give you an example
  • 00:25:44
    that really shocks people when I tell
  • 00:25:46
    them if you're a Nobel Prize winner who
  • 00:25:49
    happened to have been born in India you
  • 00:25:51
    are not allowed to get an employment
  • 00:25:53
    based green card in the United
  • 00:25:55
    States Nobel Prize winner
  • 00:25:58
    there is a category called extraordinary
  • 00:26:00
    ability that if you win the noble or an
  • 00:26:02
    Olympic medal or have other
  • 00:26:04
    extraordinary accomplishments are
  • 00:26:07
    automatically qualified for that green
  • 00:26:09
    card but there's a cap on the number of
  • 00:26:11
    people per
  • 00:26:13
    country and that cap obviously targets
  • 00:26:16
    India because India is the most
  • 00:26:17
    populated country in the world then the
  • 00:26:19
    second then is China China is also
  • 00:26:21
    binding by by that cap but there's more
  • 00:26:24
    people from India want to come here than
  • 00:26:25
    Chinese so India is much more binding
  • 00:26:28
    and waight list for the E1 right now is
  • 00:26:30
    about two decades for
  • 00:26:32
    Indians uh for the next category which
  • 00:26:35
    is people with Advanced degrees the
  • 00:26:36
    engineers the people who work at the big
  • 00:26:38
    tech companies the CEOs they are uh only
  • 00:26:42
    a 100y year weight l so they will never
  • 00:26:44
    get it they will die waiting and at the
  • 00:26:46
    same time you have a huge flow of people
  • 00:26:50
    who come here as elderly legal legal
  • 00:26:53
    immigrants for example every American
  • 00:26:55
    can sponsor their foreign born parents
  • 00:26:59
    uh you have to be 21 to sponsor them
  • 00:27:01
    usually it's people in their late 20s or
  • 00:27:03
    30s people or really people in their 40s
  • 00:27:05
    who came here through other channels
  • 00:27:07
    legally and then they sponsor their
  • 00:27:09
    Pires when they naturalize so it's
  • 00:27:10
    people in their 60s and even 70s and you
  • 00:27:13
    know how many people of those come about
  • 00:27:16
    140,000 of those come every
  • 00:27:18
    year it's 14% of the immigration flow
  • 00:27:22
    it's more than all the high skilled
  • 00:27:23
    immigrants
  • 00:27:25
    combined with their spouses and kids and
  • 00:27:28
    so you have this immigration policy that
  • 00:27:31
    basically maximizes the number of Social
  • 00:27:33
    Security recipients and minimizes the
  • 00:27:35
    number of entrepreneurs and and highly
  • 00:27:39
    paid people that come uh you know I
  • 00:27:41
    think it's it's just nonsensical there's
  • 00:27:43
    also a Visa for investors
  • 00:27:44
    multi-millionaires the ev5 program you
  • 00:27:48
    have to invest at least uh one point
  • 00:27:50
    something I think 1.8 million doar and
  • 00:27:52
    create 10 jobs in your business to do so
  • 00:27:54
    to obtain it the only 9,000 m million
  • 00:27:59
    out every year in the us because we
  • 00:28:01
    can't have too many rich people in this
  • 00:28:03
    country you
  • 00:28:04
    know that would be a terrible thing to
  • 00:28:06
    many rich people paying taxes on
  • 00:28:08
    creating jobs in
  • 00:28:10
    America well I can imagine how the
  • 00:28:12
    argument might go the allocating access
  • 00:28:15
    to membership in the American Community
  • 00:28:17
    shouldn't be based purely on a dollar
  • 00:28:20
    calculation the parents of citizens are
  • 00:28:23
    entitled to join their offspring here in
  • 00:28:26
    the country we affirm the UN of their
  • 00:28:29
    family and uh so on like that and
  • 00:28:33
    there's something mercenary about the
  • 00:28:36
    calibrating of uh of uh position in the
  • 00:28:39
    queue not everybody can come so you're
  • 00:28:42
    rationing giving priority to uh people
  • 00:28:45
    because they they have money that that
  • 00:28:48
    that's it's not for sale it shouldn't be
  • 00:28:51
    for sale this is the this is the
  • 00:28:53
    attitude yeah I I heard that argument
  • 00:28:56
    and look you know if you think that then
  • 00:28:58
    you also have to be willing to pay the
  • 00:28:59
    price for that opinion uh and the United
  • 00:29:03
    States is paying the price because when
  • 00:29:05
    you bring in your elderly family member
  • 00:29:07
    you're
  • 00:29:08
    externalizing that cost to the rest of
  • 00:29:10
    society who didn't get a choice in your
  • 00:29:12
    decision you're externalizing it in the
  • 00:29:14
    for form of Medicare and Social Security
  • 00:29:17
    and by stopping the multi-millionaire
  • 00:29:19
    investor you're also externalizing the
  • 00:29:20
    cost of your choice on on the unemployed
  • 00:29:24
    worker and on the low on on the low wage
  • 00:29:26
    person that could have otherwise in a
  • 00:29:28
    better paid job so it's all trade-offs
  • 00:29:31
    right you know I did not know that an
  • 00:29:34
    immigrant of elderly immigrant coming
  • 00:29:37
    denovo to the country having not
  • 00:29:39
    contributed to Social Security during
  • 00:29:42
    their working life with NE was never the
  • 00:29:44
    less entitled to benefits is that true
  • 00:29:46
    well not immediately not immediately
  • 00:29:48
    they have to wait until they for five
  • 00:29:50
    years um but but then you know you only
  • 00:29:54
    need to pay uh for what's called T work
  • 00:29:58
    credits and the Social Security
  • 00:29:59
    Administration also gives you credit for
  • 00:30:02
    uh if you lived in another country and
  • 00:30:03
    you paid two other social security
  • 00:30:06
    system uh George boras has a paper from
  • 00:30:08
    the 90s I think on how immigrants get
  • 00:30:11
    overpaid Social Security benefits
  • 00:30:13
    because of partly because of this um
  • 00:30:16
    immigrants also live much longer than
  • 00:30:18
    native born Americans so that
  • 00:30:20
    contributes um and and so yeah it
  • 00:30:24
    contributes to a net cost have you tried
  • 00:30:26
    to calculate in more concrete terms
  • 00:30:30
    exactly what difference it makes whether
  • 00:30:31
    or not a new immigrant to the United
  • 00:30:34
    States has or doesn't have a college
  • 00:30:36
    degree is or is not a professional and
  • 00:30:39
    so on tell us about that yeah so um
  • 00:30:44
    basically the the most positive category
  • 00:30:46
    is somebody who came to the US between
  • 00:30:48
    the ages of 18 and 24 years old and ends
  • 00:30:50
    up obtaining a graduate so Masters PhD
  • 00:30:54
    uh lawyer doctor Etc uh those people are
  • 00:30:58
    a net contributor to the uh to the
  • 00:31:02
    federal government of over $1 million
  • 00:31:05
    over $1.5 million over their lifetime in
  • 00:31:08
    Net Present Value so that is if we add
  • 00:31:10
    up all their taxes if we add up all the
  • 00:31:12
    value of the things they get from the
  • 00:31:14
    government even assuming they increase
  • 00:31:16
    military spending and everything the
  • 00:31:19
    roads absolutely everything and we
  • 00:31:22
    discount those payments to 2024 and 3%
  • 00:31:27
    discount rate over time
  • 00:31:28
    time you get $1.5 million net reduction
  • 00:31:33
    in the budget deficit from a person like
  • 00:31:36
    that if you bring in say a high school
  • 00:31:40
    dropout who arriv in his
  • 00:31:44
    50s uh you get a net increase in the
  • 00:31:47
    budget deficit over
  • 00:31:51
    $300,000 um and so the Spectrum goes
  • 00:31:53
    from there so everybody with a college
  • 00:31:56
    degree under the age of 55 is a net
  • 00:32:00
    contribut for everybody else is a net uh
  • 00:32:03
    deficit actually but the average
  • 00:32:06
    immigrant is a net contributor because
  • 00:32:08
    the people who are net contributors are
  • 00:32:09
    so positive that they pull everybody up
  • 00:32:11
    all the
  • 00:32:13
    average have you looked at all at the
  • 00:32:15
    labor market consequences of uh
  • 00:32:17
    immigration what about effects on the
  • 00:32:19
    wages of uh incumbent domestic uh
  • 00:32:22
    residents and so on and and yeah talk
  • 00:32:27
    about that
  • 00:32:28
    well I I haven't on this studies
  • 00:32:31
    specifically but you know in general the
  • 00:32:34
    most of the studies already immigration
  • 00:32:36
    and the wage effects have have dealt
  • 00:32:38
    with low School immigrants right uh so
  • 00:32:40
    like the refugee inflows from Cuba you
  • 00:32:43
    know George has very strong opinions on
  • 00:32:45
    that other people disagree I think that
  • 00:32:48
    regardless of your opinion they if you
  • 00:32:50
    see at the results they are shortterm
  • 00:32:53
    short run effects they're not long run
  • 00:32:54
    effects so it's for a few years it's not
  • 00:32:57
    even for a decade uh and there's more
  • 00:33:01
    it's a few percentage points at most for
  • 00:33:04
    the targeted group in their skill
  • 00:33:07
    level and so imagine you had a huge
  • 00:33:10
    influx of more High skilled
  • 00:33:12
    immigrants right instead of low Skool we
  • 00:33:15
    get high Skool who's going to be
  • 00:33:16
    negatively affected the physician is not
  • 00:33:18
    going to compete with the cook in the
  • 00:33:21
    restaurant right so the restaurant wages
  • 00:33:24
    and the low School wages are going to be
  • 00:33:26
    unaffected if any anything there is more
  • 00:33:29
    demand for their services they're
  • 00:33:31
    actually going to go up their wages and
  • 00:33:33
    and and really they that's going to have
  • 00:33:36
    the secondary effects right um and for
  • 00:33:40
    in the high school sector you could say
  • 00:33:41
    well we're goingon to get lower wages
  • 00:33:43
    for college professors and for uh as if
  • 00:33:47
    that wasn't already the case right like
  • 00:33:48
    most college professors are foreign
  • 00:33:50
    anyway um uh and and and doctors and all
  • 00:33:53
    of that well in this is why actually
  • 00:33:57
    skilled immigration reduces income
  • 00:34:00
    inequality because it benefits the low
  • 00:34:04
    paid Americans and you could say Well it
  • 00:34:07
    harms the high paid Americans that's a
  • 00:34:08
    bad thing not necessarily because some
  • 00:34:10
    of these immigrants are innovators much
  • 00:34:13
    more likely that low skilled so they
  • 00:34:15
    increase productivity and so perhaps the
  • 00:34:17
    effect of the high skilled maybe a wash
  • 00:34:20
    really so that's why I'm so passionate
  • 00:34:22
    about the high skilled immigration side
  • 00:34:23
    because the downsides are so much tinier
  • 00:34:26
    and the upsides are so much larg larger
  • 00:34:28
    on the low skilled end you're not going
  • 00:34:30
    to get the next you know um big
  • 00:34:33
    innovation from from a construction
  • 00:34:35
    worker a construction worker might be
  • 00:34:37
    good an agricultural worker might be a
  • 00:34:39
    good thing especially on a seasonal
  • 00:34:41
    thing right but you're not going to get
  • 00:34:43
    a new rocket from it so what's your
  • 00:34:46
    dissertation is it's on this some piece
  • 00:34:49
    of this large set of issues I suppose
  • 00:34:53
    yes it's about this and it's about some
  • 00:34:55
    other issue I don't know if you have
  • 00:34:56
    heard of the temporary protection status
  • 00:34:58
    program uh which is isn't that the one
  • 00:35:02
    which has authorized the Haitians in uh
  • 00:35:04
    Springfield Ohio yes uh though they ALS
  • 00:35:08
    they also came here on their parole um
  • 00:35:11
    by by the bid
  • 00:35:12
    Administration um but TPS basically
  • 00:35:16
    legalizes anybody who had been in the US
  • 00:35:19
    until that point that he was declar and
  • 00:35:22
    so it's a really big shock of to see
  • 00:35:25
    what happens that's what my paper looks
  • 00:35:27
    at what happens when an illegal
  • 00:35:29
    immigrant gets legal status what happens
  • 00:35:31
    to their labor market prospects you
  • 00:35:33
    would say well obviously they're better
  • 00:35:35
    off right that's that's not an
  • 00:35:37
    innovation from the research standpoint
  • 00:35:39
    everybody knows they're better off but
  • 00:35:42
    my research look at who is better off
  • 00:35:45
    turns out that is the Highly Educated
  • 00:35:48
    illegal immigrants who benefit from
  • 00:35:50
    legal status more than
  • 00:35:52
    anyone because if you are a nurse right
  • 00:35:56
    or any other occupation that say needs a
  • 00:35:59
    license or or is some you know more more
  • 00:36:03
    educated that you know apple is not
  • 00:36:05
    going to hire you if you are illegal in
  • 00:36:06
    the United States they only hire legal
  • 00:36:08
    workers right um that only a
  • 00:36:11
    construction company or a restaurant
  • 00:36:13
    will hire you illegally so those highly
  • 00:36:16
    skilled illegal immigrants are able to
  • 00:36:17
    move out of low-skilled occupations when
  • 00:36:21
    they get legal status and their wages go
  • 00:36:23
    up tremendously while the other illegal
  • 00:36:25
    immigrants don't benefit very much from
  • 00:36:27
    legalizing ation so all these
  • 00:36:29
    Congressional debates about let's
  • 00:36:32
    legalize the Farm Workers yeah maybe you
  • 00:36:34
    want to legalize the Farm Workers but
  • 00:36:36
    there's still going to be Farm Workers
  • 00:36:37
    after you legalize them but if you
  • 00:36:40
    legalize the college educated illegally
  • 00:36:43
    like say the dreamers when Obama did the
  • 00:36:45
    dream the the the dreamers executive
  • 00:36:47
    action those people all had to get go to
  • 00:36:50
    college those people actually were able
  • 00:36:52
    to become lawyers and doctors and do
  • 00:36:54
    professions that were much more uh
  • 00:36:57
    highly paid
  • 00:37:00
    in fact this is an argument in favor of
  • 00:37:02
    the whole dreamer legalization and and
  • 00:37:04
    uh Concepts like
  • 00:37:07
    that I see so you're looking not just at
  • 00:37:12
    uh selective admissions of Highly
  • 00:37:14
    skilled people but also add differential
  • 00:37:17
    uh treatment of those who are highly
  • 00:37:19
    skilled already here who may not have
  • 00:37:21
    legal status yes uh that's
  • 00:37:24
    interesting so
  • 00:37:28
    if you were writing the um platform uh
  • 00:37:32
    the program the uh project 2025 chapter
  • 00:37:37
    on
  • 00:37:38
    [Laughter]
  • 00:37:40
    immigration what would it be what would
  • 00:37:42
    a a con conservative Administration that
  • 00:37:45
    was uh uh enjoyed the support of
  • 00:37:49
    Congress and and basically challenged to
  • 00:37:51
    formulate a policy what would that look
  • 00:37:55
    like well if if I had the power of say
  • 00:37:59
    just 51 votes in the in in the Senate
  • 00:38:02
    not 60 because if we was 60 I could do a
  • 00:38:04
    lot more right um but imagine it was
  • 00:38:07
    just 51 I would do what I mentioned
  • 00:38:09
    about securing the border with funding
  • 00:38:11
    detention centers across the
  • 00:38:13
    border to detain everybody who comes
  • 00:38:15
    illegally I would hire over a thousand
  • 00:38:18
    new immigration
  • 00:38:20
    judges um I would have much more
  • 00:38:23
    stringent credible fear betting so that
  • 00:38:26
    even before you allowed to get to a
  • 00:38:28
    judge your claim is vetted um meaning
  • 00:38:32
    some of those could be rejected yes most
  • 00:38:36
    perhaps um I don't know what's going to
  • 00:38:39
    happen but most perhaps um that's
  • 00:38:41
    something Biden has tried to do but they
  • 00:38:43
    just don't have the staff to do it to
  • 00:38:45
    everyone so most people don't even get
  • 00:38:46
    interviewed for credible fear screening
  • 00:38:49
    because they don't have the number of
  • 00:38:50
    employees to to even interview them so
  • 00:38:53
    they're not entitled to a hearing before
  • 00:38:55
    a judge they they could be screened and
  • 00:38:57
    uh what's
  • 00:39:00
    right okay go on go on you hire yeah so
  • 00:39:03
    that's what I would do uh and that's why
  • 00:39:05
    I would secure the Border I would
  • 00:39:07
    obviously put pressure on other
  • 00:39:08
    countries to take their uh Deport
  • 00:39:10
    citizens you know this happened in the
  • 00:39:11
    early 2000s with the Bush Administration
  • 00:39:14
    Haiti didn't want to take people that
  • 00:39:15
    was a big problem and the Bush
  • 00:39:17
    Administration sent the Coast Guard with
  • 00:39:19
    some Haitians without authorization went
  • 00:39:22
    to the coast of Haiti and dropped them
  • 00:39:25
    off you know maybe maybe we to get tough
  • 00:39:28
    like that right uh and so that that's
  • 00:39:30
    the kind of thing that I think needs to
  • 00:39:31
    be done especially with the criminals
  • 00:39:33
    right uh because I'm talking about gang
  • 00:39:36
    members from chawa the new Venezuelan
  • 00:39:38
    gang right that is terrorizing other
  • 00:39:40
    migrants in in country uh that that's
  • 00:39:42
    the kind of thing that needs to be done
  • 00:39:44
    so the criminals there would be no
  • 00:39:46
    Sanctuary cities uh their funding would
  • 00:39:48
    be pulled out that's a big problem today
  • 00:39:51
    um because it's not a sanctuary
  • 00:39:54
    for immigrants who are here just working
  • 00:39:57
    and not committing crimes it's a
  • 00:39:59
    sanctuary in that the police the local
  • 00:40:01
    police is forbidden from calling I if
  • 00:40:05
    they arrest a criminal who is here as a
  • 00:40:10
    non-citizen and so the killer of lak and
  • 00:40:12
    Riley the the young lady who who died in
  • 00:40:14
    Georgia for example turns out that man
  • 00:40:17
    Jose bar had been arrested in New York
  • 00:40:19
    City earlier before going to Georgia he
  • 00:40:22
    was a shoplifter I believe NYPD because
  • 00:40:26
    in New York City is a sanctuary city did
  • 00:40:28
    not call eyes on Jose VAR and that's why
  • 00:40:32
    Jose VAR was able to flee in addition to
  • 00:40:35
    the no to the no calling eyes it's also
  • 00:40:37
    no no bail so he was also released uh as
  • 00:40:41
    as any American would be released uh
  • 00:40:44
    without bail and he went to Georgia and
  • 00:40:47
    then he killed this girl that was
  • 00:40:49
    totally preventable not only because he
  • 00:40:51
    shouldn't have been in the US which well
  • 00:40:53
    maybe you say well but he claimed a
  • 00:40:54
    Salomon he had a credible fear okay he
  • 00:40:57
    had
  • 00:40:57
    with but he he wouldn't even have been
  • 00:41:00
    able to go to Georgia because he would
  • 00:41:02
    have been deor as soon as he committed
  • 00:41:04
    his first crime because you don't want
  • 00:41:06
    shoplifters in the United States either
  • 00:41:08
    not just
  • 00:41:09
    Killers you don't want drun drivers you
  • 00:41:12
    don't want all you know there's so many
  • 00:41:14
    people who want to come to the US that
  • 00:41:16
    are hard workers that perhaps should be
  • 00:41:18
    able to come really I think there's a
  • 00:41:20
    lot of people that are not allowed to
  • 00:41:21
    come that should should be allowed to
  • 00:41:23
    and that's the case for any country but
  • 00:41:26
    criminals you know so that's the kind of
  • 00:41:28
    thing that I would reform and then on
  • 00:41:29
    the legal immigration side I would do
  • 00:41:32
    similar to the recommendations I made in
  • 00:41:34
    my report for the Manhattan Institute I
  • 00:41:36
    would accept anybody with a graduate
  • 00:41:38
    degree from cap so they would be allowed
  • 00:41:40
    to come me the qualifi in the current
  • 00:41:42
    procedures I would probably Institute
  • 00:41:44
    some sort of wage test so that if you
  • 00:41:45
    earn over a certain amount of money
  • 00:41:47
    you're just allowed to get a green card
  • 00:41:50
    and then uh just investment portion and
  • 00:41:53
    probably restrict the ability of
  • 00:41:55
    Americans to uh bring in their parents
  • 00:41:57
    unless they pay an amount to the
  • 00:41:59
    government to compensate for the cost or
  • 00:42:02
    or as Tom Cotton had proposed they can
  • 00:42:04
    come but not obtain a green card they
  • 00:42:07
    can work and live here but not get a
  • 00:42:09
    green card and get Social Security and
  • 00:42:11
    Medicare so I think that that's a
  • 00:42:14
    compromise I think it would be extremely
  • 00:42:15
    beneficial for the US I I would actually
  • 00:42:18
    do a a a legalization program for the
  • 00:42:21
    people already here I think it's all
  • 00:42:23
    sustainable to have people here legally
  • 00:42:25
    I think many of them it's actually
  • 00:42:27
    really unfair uh because in
  • 00:42:30
    1996 before 1996 if you had come to the
  • 00:42:33
    US illegally and you married an American
  • 00:42:35
    or you had a child in the US and the
  • 00:42:37
    child turned 21 so you have been here
  • 00:42:39
    for at least 21 years you were allowed
  • 00:42:42
    to fix your status and become
  • 00:42:45
    legal after 1996 you were not allowed
  • 00:42:49
    anymore and and so today we have over a
  • 00:42:53
    million Americans married to illegal
  • 00:42:55
    immigrants that can fix their status I
  • 00:42:58
    think that's a
  • 00:43:00
    tragedy I mean if you acknowledge that
  • 00:43:03
    you're not going to deport
  • 00:43:06
    somebody it seems to me there's a
  • 00:43:08
    compelling case to normalize their
  • 00:43:10
    status given that they're
  • 00:43:13
    here the only case I can see against
  • 00:43:15
    doing that is the forward-looking case
  • 00:43:18
    that it creates a precedent which will
  • 00:43:19
    influence the behavior of other people
  • 00:43:21
    because you have a Samaritans dilemma
  • 00:43:24
    you can't commit to actually doing
  • 00:43:26
    anything about them
  • 00:43:28
    but I don't know what do you think about
  • 00:43:30
    that I mean you know do you have any
  • 00:43:32
    idea how many people are living without
  • 00:43:34
    legal authorization in the United States
  • 00:43:36
    right now I mean 10 million 12 million
  • 00:43:38
    15 million how many I think it's
  • 00:43:40
    probably over 15 million at this point
  • 00:43:43
    uh given the current border crisis
  • 00:43:45
    because free Biden Administration was
  • 00:43:48
    thought to be about 11
  • 00:43:50
    million and we know just from the CBO
  • 00:43:53
    that it's been over five million coming
  • 00:43:56
    but you know there's also deportations
  • 00:43:57
    and people go back voluntarily and so I
  • 00:44:00
    I would say about 15 million is a
  • 00:44:02
    reasonable estimate but perhaps it's
  • 00:44:04
    more that that's what I would say the
  • 00:44:07
    difference is that before people try to
  • 00:44:09
    avoid being caught at the border and
  • 00:44:11
    they came illegally without being caught
  • 00:44:14
    now they actually want to be caught they
  • 00:44:17
    they line up to turn themselves in
  • 00:44:19
    because they know they will get a court
  • 00:44:20
    date so the the rate of evasion the G
  • 00:44:23
    ways the those people no all the
  • 00:44:26
    criminal they were actually caught they
  • 00:44:28
    weren't like sneaking in almost any of
  • 00:44:31
    them they actually passed through border
  • 00:44:33
    patrol they were still let in even
  • 00:44:35
    though they had tattoos and we're parts
  • 00:44:36
    of a gang which shows how little vetting
  • 00:44:39
    is being done right like this maybe it's
  • 00:44:42
    just that they're overwhelmed you could
  • 00:44:43
    say but but it's certainly a a problem
  • 00:44:47
    so on the forward-looking case I think
  • 00:44:50
    that's always been the debate right if
  • 00:44:52
    you legalize people then more people are
  • 00:44:54
    going to come because they will be
  • 00:44:54
    legalized again but if my proposal is
  • 00:44:57
    implemented everybody who can come but
  • 00:45:00
    they will be detained and they won't be
  • 00:45:02
    released unless they're approved right
  • 00:45:05
    and so as long as you have
  • 00:45:08
    detention there is no incentive to come
  • 00:45:10
    but you need to be willing to
  • 00:45:12
    detain and you know I think that's
  • 00:45:15
    totally fair Australia does it by the
  • 00:45:17
    way not only do they detain people they
  • 00:45:19
    send them to an island in the indic co
  • 00:45:21
    before they make the decision now you
  • 00:45:24
    said if you had 60 votes which means you
  • 00:45:26
    can get past the filibuster it would be
  • 00:45:28
    a different story can you get any of
  • 00:45:30
    this Universal detention or on the legal
  • 00:45:34
    immigration side automatic no uh
  • 00:45:38
    ceilings on people coming from countries
  • 00:45:40
    if they have college degrees or
  • 00:45:41
    something like yeah can you get that
  • 00:45:42
    through a a senate with without the 60
  • 00:45:45
    the legal immigration side no but you
  • 00:45:48
    can definitely get a coalition of people
  • 00:45:50
    in the president supported it to get on
  • 00:45:52
    the on the high school side to 60 votes
  • 00:45:55
    and you can at least get all Democrats
  • 00:45:57
    and half of the Republicans really on
  • 00:45:59
    that if you also do the part of the
  • 00:46:03
    detention but the detention doesn't meet
  • 00:46:05
    60 votes because it's just money so you
  • 00:46:07
    can do it through the budget process uh
  • 00:46:10
    and for that you just need the 50 plus
  • 00:46:12
    one right and so I would do the
  • 00:46:14
    detention first uh and that would build
  • 00:46:17
    I hope that would build the credibility
  • 00:46:19
    with the Republicans to say hey we can
  • 00:46:21
    negotiate something with the Democrats
  • 00:46:24
    let's reduce the the low skill legal
  • 00:46:27
    immigration in exchange for more High
  • 00:46:29
    skilled legal immigration for example
  • 00:46:31
    the diversity Visa Lottery the US
  • 00:46:34
    literally gives out 55,000 green cards
  • 00:46:36
    randomly to people from not all
  • 00:46:38
    countries only countries that are small
  • 00:46:41
    every year that I estimate could raise
  • 00:46:45
    amount enormous sums of money for the
  • 00:46:48
    government it would also be much fairer
  • 00:46:50
    really if those were instead given to
  • 00:46:52
    highly skilled
  • 00:46:53
    immigrants right who have a job offer
  • 00:46:56
    who who are highly paid who have a
  • 00:46:58
    higher education who know English that's
  • 00:47:00
    a huge part right I think the English
  • 00:47:02
    part is important I think the US should
  • 00:47:04
    be much tougher about requiring that
  • 00:47:06
    people learn English other countries
  • 00:47:09
    requ I mean Germany requires people
  • 00:47:11
    learn German Australia requires that
  • 00:47:13
    people learn English I think it's
  • 00:47:15
    actually a good thing for the immigrants
  • 00:47:18
    because people will make the effort to
  • 00:47:20
    learn English and that will be a good
  • 00:47:21
    thing for them and and it will be a good
  • 00:47:23
    thing for for society right so much of
  • 00:47:26
    detention for example what's happening
  • 00:47:28
    in Springfield so much of those tensions
  • 00:47:30
    of cultural differences do you think
  • 00:47:33
    this would have been a national Scandal
  • 00:47:34
    if he had been 20,000 Indian highly
  • 00:47:37
    skilled
  • 00:47:38
    immigrants instead of 20,000 Asians it
  • 00:47:42
    wouldn't have happened because they
  • 00:47:44
    spoke English because they didn't
  • 00:47:45
    receive any G of a
  • 00:47:48
    benefits and it's not like it's a very
  • 00:47:50
    similar culture okay it's a very
  • 00:47:53
    different culture the Indian culture am
  • 00:47:54
    I or am I wrong no you're right you're
  • 00:47:57
    right about that I'm just trying to
  • 00:47:58
    think about whose job would be getting
  • 00:48:00
    competed against if it was highly
  • 00:48:02
    skilled it would be a different set of
  • 00:48:04
    people by the way it already happened
  • 00:48:07
    Silicon Valley yeah Northern New Jersey
  • 00:48:10
    do you see the highly skilled Americans
  • 00:48:13
    in Mass protest because the college
  • 00:48:16
    professors protesting the native born
  • 00:48:19
    College professors against their foreign
  • 00:48:20
    B
  • 00:48:21
    colleagues they like it let me ask you
  • 00:48:25
    this is there any evidence
  • 00:48:27
    president Trump has said they're dumping
  • 00:48:30
    their jails and their uh medal
  • 00:48:32
    institutions and what is there any
  • 00:48:34
    evidence from Venezuela your
  • 00:48:37
    Venezuela that the government is uh
  • 00:48:40
    encouraging the migration of uh
  • 00:48:43
    criminals gang members mentally ill
  • 00:48:45
    people to the US
  • 00:48:47
    border uh certainly not mentally ill
  • 00:48:50
    people I mean there are no there are no
  • 00:48:52
    mental institutions in Venezuela that's
  • 00:48:55
    that's the problem
  • 00:48:57
    people don't go to prison in Venezuela
  • 00:48:59
    very much that's why Venezuela is
  • 00:49:01
    dangerous and so I never believe the
  • 00:49:03
    claim that they were being
  • 00:49:05
    sent because Venezuela was dangerous
  • 00:49:09
    because people were not in prison in the
  • 00:49:11
    first place people who are in prison are
  • 00:49:13
    there I mean the prisoners control it
  • 00:49:16
    they even have chicken farms inside they
  • 00:49:19
    have like even Banks inside their own
  • 00:49:21
    prison they run the the cartels from the
  • 00:49:25
    prison there are no government officials
  • 00:49:27
    inside allowed I think the recent
  • 00:49:30
    foundation and then Bice before when it
  • 00:49:33
    still existed they had done something
  • 00:49:34
    inside Venezuelan prisons you can watch
  • 00:49:36
    that is fascinating they get inside and
  • 00:49:40
    um it's it's a terrible mess so I don't
  • 00:49:42
    think they're being sent I think simply
  • 00:49:43
    Venezuela ran out of things to steal so
  • 00:49:46
    these G became International they went
  • 00:49:49
    first to Colombia Chile Peru Ecuador and
  • 00:49:52
    they're and they're making money and the
  • 00:49:54
    US was the next Target and then the
  • 00:49:56
    Venezuelan government has made it worse
  • 00:49:59
    by not accepting them to be sent back to
  • 00:50:01
    Venezuela so in that way the Venezuelan
  • 00:50:04
    government does want to keep them there
  • 00:50:06
    they don't want to help they don't want
  • 00:50:08
    to get them back and why would they
  • 00:50:10
    right and so I think that that's the way
  • 00:50:13
    it's happening I don't think there is
  • 00:50:15
    this conspiracy by other governments to
  • 00:50:17
    ship criminals to the United States I I
  • 00:50:20
    don't think that's what's the time frame
  • 00:50:22
    when you're finishing the dissertation
  • 00:50:24
    hopefully this m year
  • 00:50:27
    well sounds good you'll be on the job
  • 00:50:29
    market then that's right that's right
  • 00:50:32
    well Daniel I want to thank you for
  • 00:50:33
    coming on the Glenn show sharing some of
  • 00:50:35
    your wisdom with us and uh wish you all
  • 00:50:37
    the best in your uh Next Step
  • 00:50:39
    professionally uh I learned a lot from
  • 00:50:41
    talking with you tonight oh thank you so
  • 00:50:44
    much for your questions and your time L
  • 00:50:45
    I appreciate you're welcome take care
  • 00:50:54
    [Music]
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