Palantir & Sofi Shareholders‼️ GET READY 😳

00:33:31
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3Ls-_KVISA

Resumen

TLDRI videoen diskuteres de seneste betydelige stigninger i Palantir og Sofi-aktier over en tre måneders periode. Palantir er steget 96%, mens Sofi er steget 14% over samme periode. På et ét-års grundlag er Palantir steget 226% og Sofi 126%. Videoen dykker ned i potentialet for disse aktier fremadrettet, herunder en forventet endnu en fordobling i værdi. Palantirs nylige skift fra New York Stock Exchange til Nasdaq diskuteres som en drivkraft, mens Sofi vurderes ud fra deres solide økonomiske præstationer. Videoen inkluderer også perspektiver på teknologiaktier, især vedrørende AI og semiconductors, og vurderinger af det bredere aktiemarked i lyset af globale økonomiske forhold.

Para llevar

  • 🚀 Palantir har haft en betydelig vækst på 96% over tre måneder.
  • 📈 Sofi er steget med 14% over tre måneder med en fortsat stigende tendens.
  • 🤔 Diskussioner om fremtidige investeringer og fordobling af aktiernes værdi.
  • 🏦 Palantirs flytning til NASDAQ kan øge investorinteressen.
  • 💡 Sofis stærke økonomiske rapporter bidrager til deres kursstigninger.
  • 🧠 Teknologiaktier, især AI og software, ses som potentielle vækstområder.
  • 🔄 Markedsrotation fra chips til software indikeret.
  • 📊 Mid-cap aktier opfattes som undervurderede investeringsmuligheder.
  • 🌍 Globale begivenheder påvirker markedets stabilitet og reaktioner.
  • 📉 Small-cap aktier står til potentielle gevinster med nuværende markedsforhold.

Cronología

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Sofi og Palantir aktier oplever historiske stigninger: Sofi er steget 14 %, mens Palantir er steget 96 % over 3 måneder. Over året er Palantir oppe med 226 % og Sofi 126 %. Videoen udforsker grundene til disse stigninger og diskuterer mulige scenarier og tidspunkter for potentielle yderligere stigninger i aktiekurserne.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Der nævnes overvejelser om investering i Nasdaq frem for New York Stock Exchange, hvor virksomheder som Palantir og dens evt. optagelse i Nasdaq 100 kan føre til tvunget aktiekøb og yderligere prisstigninger. Diskuterer også hvorvidt aktier i Nasdaq muliggør bedre afkast end S&P 500 set over årene.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Planer om tvungne opkøb og langsigtet vækst i Palantir forventes, og dette kan påvirke fondsinvestorer til at fokusere på Nasdaq-investeringsmuligheder som en måde at opnå bedre afkast på kort sigt. Diskussion om hvordan dette kan drive aktiekurser i den nærmeste fremtid.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Palantir kan se betydelig vækst i omsætningen, hvis nuværende trend fortsætter. Gennemgang af forskellige vækstscenarier, herunder et ultrabull case scenario med mulighed for en fordobling af aktiekursen inden for få år, hvis høj vækst opretholdes.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Diskussionen går videre til Sofi, hvor potentialet for kortsigtet vækst er knyttet til momentum i det bredere marked og kundepræference for små banker og fintechs. En stærk resultatrapport kunne føre til, at Sofis aktiekurs fordobles inden for to år.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:33:31

    Reaktioner på aktiemarkedets modstandsdygtighed på trods af verdensomspændende geopolitiske spændinger og hvordan investorer begynder at forberede sig på politiske ændringer. Opmærksomhed på potentialet i små virksomheder og teknologivirksomheder på lang sigt.

Ver más

Mapa mental

Mind Map

Vídeo de preguntas y respuestas

  • Hvor meget er Palantir-aktien steget de sidste tre måneder?

    Palantir-aktien er steget 96% de sidste tre måneder.

  • Hvilket nyligt skift har Palantir gjort, der kan øge deres aktieinteresse?

    Palantir har skiftet fra New York Stock Exchange til NASDAQ.

  • Hvordan har Sofi præsteret på et ét-års grundlag?

    Sofi er steget 126% over det seneste år.

  • Hvad er fokus for teknologiaktier i øjeblikket ifølge videoen?

    Fokus er på AI og software som vækstområder.

  • Hvilke faktorer kan påvirke småkapitalaktier positivt?

    Lavere renter, økonomisk deregulering og stigende markedsmomentum kan påvirke positivt.

  • Hvorfor vurderer videoen, at mid-cap aktier er attraktive?

    De betragtes som undervurderede og handler til historisk gennemsnitlige værdivurderinger.

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  • 00:00:00
    Palante tier and Sofi stock what a
  • 00:00:02
    historic three-month run it has been for
  • 00:00:04
    these two stocks Sofi stock up is now up
  • 00:00:08
    14% paler stock is up 96% in the past 3
  • 00:00:13
    months absolutely historic run on a
  • 00:00:15
    one-year basis pener Stock's up
  • 00:00:18
    226 Sofi stock is now up
  • 00:00:21
    126% just in the past year absolutely
  • 00:00:24
    historic run for both these stocks palen
  • 00:00:26
    tier I want to talk about some huge
  • 00:00:28
    changes that are going on palen tier a
  • 00:00:29
    lot of people are wondering like you
  • 00:00:30
    know a lot of people have been
  • 00:00:31
    predicting the stock is going to crash
  • 00:00:33
    especially in the last couple weeks I
  • 00:00:34
    noticed a lot of people predicting like
  • 00:00:36
    oh paler is going to crash like short
  • 00:00:38
    paler by puts those sorts of things
  • 00:00:39
    we're going to talk about what's going
  • 00:00:40
    to likely transpire here in paler stock
  • 00:00:42
    in the short term additionally we're
  • 00:00:44
    going to speak about in this video I
  • 00:00:45
    think it's an important subject we cover
  • 00:00:46
    when's the next 2x for paler right
  • 00:00:48
    obviously the valuation has gotten
  • 00:00:49
    raised immensely I'm going to take you
  • 00:00:51
    through several different scenarios here
  • 00:00:52
    and kind of know what I expect in
  • 00:00:54
    regards to the next double up of paler
  • 00:00:56
    and taking the stock to $120 plus okay
  • 00:00:59
    we're also going to speak about Sofi in
  • 00:01:00
    this video where this stock is headed
  • 00:01:02
    shortterm and additionally when's the
  • 00:01:04
    next 2x for Sofi stock these two stocks
  • 00:01:06
    actually set up very differently in the
  • 00:01:08
    short term and in the long term so we're
  • 00:01:10
    going to speak about that in this video
  • 00:01:12
    here today and then once we get through
  • 00:01:14
    that I want to go ahead and react to two
  • 00:01:16
    videos specific in this video here today
  • 00:01:18
    first one up here Fast Money traders
  • 00:01:20
    talk about tech uh Divergence in Tech
  • 00:01:22
    trade in the second half of the year I
  • 00:01:23
    really looking forward to reacting to
  • 00:01:25
    that one and then I want to react to
  • 00:01:26
    this one the market is saying it's
  • 00:01:28
    incrementally more confident in the
  • 00:01:30
    growth Outlook says Goldman Sachs so
  • 00:01:32
    looking forward to reacting that one
  • 00:01:34
    here today as well I appreciate
  • 00:01:35
    everybody joining me as always it's one
  • 00:01:36
    thing and one thing only I asked from
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    you guys you know what it is it's in my
  • 00:01:40
    garage I got a sign it says it right
  • 00:01:42
    there smash a like button that's all I
  • 00:01:43
    need I hope you guys appreciate me
  • 00:01:45
    recording this on a Sunday night for you
  • 00:01:47
    guys here today and all I need from
  • 00:01:48
    return is one smash of that like button
  • 00:01:50
    if you want to be subscribed to the
  • 00:01:51
    channel feel free to subscribe it's free
  • 00:01:53
    to do so additionally oh you'll be
  • 00:01:56
    flipping my flapjacks folks we're only a
  • 00:01:58
    few days away from the Black Friday sale
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    for THX stocks.com that is going to be
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    full access to everything in thx.com the
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    education portion the comparison feature
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    the charts feature the valuation metric
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    all that good stuff okay pin comment
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    down there to enter in your info for the
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    deal now I've been letting folks know
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    that day but you might want to consider
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    with Spam emails on Black Friday from
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    care about cuz guess what it's Black
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    Friday and every company you possibly
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    ever signed up for in your life it's
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    going to send you an email that day so
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    so if you want to for sure make sure you
  • 00:02:42
    get the deal you might want to have that
  • 00:02:44
    text over Okay so let's get into this
  • 00:02:47
    paler stock is set to soar after
  • 00:02:50
    November 26 guess what today is it's
  • 00:02:53
    almost November 26 now how do I feel
  • 00:02:56
    about this well we got to understand
  • 00:02:59
    very important here we got to understand
  • 00:03:01
    why so many people are predicting that
  • 00:03:03
    paler stock is going to go on another
  • 00:03:05
    epic Beast run here and the reason
  • 00:03:07
    people are now predicting that is
  • 00:03:09
    because of this palente is leaving the
  • 00:03:11
    New York Stock Exchange for the NASDAQ
  • 00:03:13
    now the NASDAQ it's really the place you
  • 00:03:15
    want to be noways it it honestly it
  • 00:03:17
    gives you in my personal opinion it
  • 00:03:19
    gives you a lot more let's call investor
  • 00:03:22
    interest out there when you're on the
  • 00:03:23
    NASDAQ you get more publicity being on
  • 00:03:25
    the NASDAQ than you do in the nysse at
  • 00:03:27
    least my opinion personally is is that
  • 00:03:29
    right like if you if I had a company
  • 00:03:30
    like I don't know THX stocks.com and I
  • 00:03:32
    was going to take it public New York
  • 00:03:34
    Stock Exchange or NASDAQ honestly
  • 00:03:36
    nowadays I would go NASDAQ you know
  • 00:03:38
    maybe 20 years ago would have been
  • 00:03:39
    different but nowadays I honestly feel
  • 00:03:41
    like NASDAQ is a better route to go
  • 00:03:42
    right so paler stock gaining Friday on
  • 00:03:45
    on plans it switch to listening uh from
  • 00:03:47
    the New York or to the NASDAQ from the
  • 00:03:48
    New York Stock Exchange investors seem
  • 00:03:50
    to be hoping the software company will
  • 00:03:52
    gain from the stock getting added to the
  • 00:03:53
    NASDAQ 100 which is a QQQ which is you
  • 00:03:57
    know very widely invested I know a lot
  • 00:03:59
    of investors that will you know will buy
  • 00:04:01
    the q's no different than a lot of folks
  • 00:04:03
    buy the S&P 500 Index Fund there's a lot
  • 00:04:05
    of investors that view the cu's as be a
  • 00:04:07
    better reward profile over the next 10
  • 00:04:10
    20 years so a lot of people that have a
  • 00:04:12
    further time Horizon let's say you're in
  • 00:04:14
    your 20s 30s 40s a lot of those folks
  • 00:04:17
    might rather just put money in the q's
  • 00:04:19
    it's called QQQ which is the NASDAQ 100
  • 00:04:22
    rather than put money in in S&P 500
  • 00:04:24
    Index Fund and they think they'll get
  • 00:04:26
    much better gains and I got to be quite
  • 00:04:28
    honest with you guys like if you know
  • 00:04:31
    obviously an individual stock picker I'd
  • 00:04:32
    much rather pick individual stocks and
  • 00:04:34
    pick the best stocks in the q's or the
  • 00:04:36
    S&P 500 or whatever to invest in right
  • 00:04:38
    but if you told me I had to invest in
  • 00:04:41
    either the QQQ right or I had to invest
  • 00:04:45
    in uh the S&P 500 to be quite Frank with
  • 00:04:49
    you guys I would invest in the q's over
  • 00:04:51
    the S&P 500 look at the 5year returns
  • 00:04:54
    for the q's versus S&P 500 you're
  • 00:04:56
    talking about 158% for the q's versus
  • 00:04:58
    97% for the S&P 500 but let's back it up
  • 00:05:01
    further let's take it back to you know
  • 00:05:03
    what don't we why don't we take it back
  • 00:05:04
    to about 10 years that would be good
  • 00:05:06
    well it looks like I don't know why
  • 00:05:07
    trading views chart oh maybe it's
  • 00:05:09
    because WTI is here maybe that's what I
  • 00:05:10
    need to get rid of oh it's WTI on it let
  • 00:05:13
    me get rid of let's go to I don't know
  • 00:05:16
    Tesla okay and we'll take it back here
  • 00:05:19
    well let's go to Apple because then we
  • 00:05:20
    can take it back way far so let's check
  • 00:05:22
    out a 10-year chart here of the q's
  • 00:05:25
    versus the S&P 500 so right out here so
  • 00:05:30
    10 year you're looking at about 280%
  • 00:05:33
    gains for the q's versus 123% for the
  • 00:05:36
    S&P 500 so the moralist story is like if
  • 00:05:39
    I had to guess what outperforms what
  • 00:05:41
    over the next 10 years and you forced me
  • 00:05:43
    to invest I said Jeremy you're not
  • 00:05:45
    allowed to buy individual stocks only
  • 00:05:47
    some sort of index or ETF or something
  • 00:05:49
    like that I would go the cues over the
  • 00:05:51
    S&P 500 any day of the week if I had a
  • 00:05:53
    long time Horizon now if I had a
  • 00:05:55
    shorttime horizon I might be more
  • 00:05:56
    inclined with S&P 500 if I was later in
  • 00:05:59
    life something like that but I'm like no
  • 00:06:01
    no I would definitely go Q's over that
  • 00:06:03
    so this is a huge moment for paler and
  • 00:06:05
    there's going to be massive forced
  • 00:06:06
    buying coming into paler stock in the
  • 00:06:08
    short term and it's just there's not a
  • 00:06:10
    debate around that to be quite Frank
  • 00:06:12
    there's no debating whether there's
  • 00:06:13
    going to be a bunch of money flooding
  • 00:06:14
    into paler it's basically just you know
  • 00:06:17
    pretty much factual at this point in
  • 00:06:18
    time there's going to be a lot of money
  • 00:06:20
    flooding into paler stock in the short
  • 00:06:22
    term right and honestly over the longer
  • 00:06:23
    term as well when it's in the cues
  • 00:06:25
    especially getting that it's going to go
  • 00:06:26
    in as likely it's going to go in
  • 00:06:28
    somewhere around the 30th biggest stock
  • 00:06:30
    in the cues which is a whole other big
  • 00:06:33
    deal right now additionally this is very
  • 00:06:35
    important this next part I show you here
  • 00:06:37
    I don't know how many of you guys watch
  • 00:06:38
    my main Channel which is called
  • 00:06:39
    Financial education I'm sure you know at
  • 00:06:41
    least 50% of you guys here on the
  • 00:06:43
    reaction Channel you know about my main
  • 00:06:44
    Channel Financial education right and I
  • 00:06:47
    did a video four days ago on the channel
  • 00:06:49
    called stock market melt Up 2.0 is
  • 00:06:50
    coming prepare now right and in that
  • 00:06:53
    video what was one of the main points I
  • 00:06:55
    made was it's you know a lot of times
  • 00:06:57
    when the Market's performing very good
  • 00:06:58
    which guess what it's a it's been a
  • 00:06:59
    great year in the market it's been a
  • 00:07:01
    great year many times fund managers run
  • 00:07:03
    into situations where they're sign
  • 00:07:05
    significantly underperforming the S&P
  • 00:07:08
    500 in the NASDAQ right and a lot of
  • 00:07:11
    these fund managers their Benchmark
  • 00:07:13
    which is the thing they kind of compare
  • 00:07:15
    themselves to and when they put out
  • 00:07:16
    their endof year investment report to
  • 00:07:18
    their investors they say here's how we
  • 00:07:20
    did versus S&P 500 if you are showing
  • 00:07:23
    you got let's say a 10% return and the
  • 00:07:26
    S&P 500 got a 25% return you're you look
  • 00:07:30
    really bad to your investors and any
  • 00:07:32
    investor that invests in your your fund
  • 00:07:34
    or whatever right let's say you got a
  • 00:07:35
    hedge fund they're going to be looking
  • 00:07:36
    at you and like hey uh why am I paying
  • 00:07:38
    you a 2 and 20 to get 10% when I could
  • 00:07:42
    have just been the S&P 500 got 25% right
  • 00:07:45
    so what happens is fund managers start
  • 00:07:47
    having to play catch- up to the market
  • 00:07:48
    now additionally when you had a really
  • 00:07:50
    good year in the market guess what
  • 00:07:51
    people don't want to do they don't
  • 00:07:53
    really want to sell stocks and why would
  • 00:07:55
    they not well because you sell stocks
  • 00:07:57
    now you go ahead and pay gains on that
  • 00:07:59
    in a few months from now versus wait
  • 00:08:02
    till the first quarter of the year of
  • 00:08:04
    next year right and then go ahead and
  • 00:08:05
    sell some stocks if you want to sell
  • 00:08:07
    some stocks right and take profits then
  • 00:08:09
    and then you can worry about your taxes
  • 00:08:10
    over a year from now so the moral of
  • 00:08:13
    story is if you're going to be a fund
  • 00:08:15
    manager and you got to play catchup to
  • 00:08:16
    the market where are you going to look
  • 00:08:18
    guess where you're going to look I just
  • 00:08:20
    showed you where you're going to look
  • 00:08:21
    you're going to look to the cues that's
  • 00:08:23
    where you're going to look if you're a
  • 00:08:23
    fund manager if you're going to look
  • 00:08:25
    individual stocks then you're probably
  • 00:08:27
    going to be looking at Nvidia here over
  • 00:08:29
    this next like if you if you told me I
  • 00:08:31
    had a play catchup to the S&P 500 I
  • 00:08:34
    would be like okay um what am I going to
  • 00:08:36
    do over the next 5 weeks I'm going to
  • 00:08:37
    probably load up on Nvidia I'm going to
  • 00:08:39
    probably load up on paler I'm going to
  • 00:08:41
    probably load up on the q's in general
  • 00:08:42
    those sorts of things right and if
  • 00:08:43
    you're loading up on the q's you're
  • 00:08:45
    going to be loading up on palen tier
  • 00:08:46
    right so that's something to kind of
  • 00:08:48
    keep in mind there you're going to be
  • 00:08:49
    loading up on the stocks that are the
  • 00:08:50
    hot ones that are likely to try to get
  • 00:08:52
    that Alpha before end of year to try to
  • 00:08:55
    look better to your investors right so
  • 00:08:57
    this is something that's very very
  • 00:08:58
    important for everybody keeping keep in
  • 00:09:00
    mind here and why paler could still be
  • 00:09:03
    you know honestly looking good into the
  • 00:09:05
    year end I think after year end you know
  • 00:09:09
    then we'll then we'll see then we'll see
  • 00:09:10
    what what happens after that but I got
  • 00:09:13
    to say the setup's decent here to year
  • 00:09:15
    end when you talk about getting in the
  • 00:09:16
    NASDAQ getting in the q's when you talk
  • 00:09:18
    about fund managers likely having to
  • 00:09:20
    play catchup when you talk about a lot
  • 00:09:21
    of investors aren't going to want to
  • 00:09:22
    take profits and also remember in paler
  • 00:09:23
    stock a lot of retail investors in that
  • 00:09:26
    right a lot of retail investors don't
  • 00:09:27
    want to take pal any profits on paler
  • 00:09:29
    cuz they believe it's going to be a $500
  • 00:09:30
    billion do market cap a trillion dollar
  • 00:09:31
    market cap and so paler being a hundred
  • 00:09:34
    something billion dollar market cap
  • 00:09:35
    they're like why would I sell now so
  • 00:09:36
    that's just more more thought there
  • 00:09:39
    right now let me run you
  • 00:09:41
    through cuz now people are kind of
  • 00:09:43
    thinking about when's the next time the
  • 00:09:44
    stock doubles and goes to 120 plus well
  • 00:09:46
    let me show you exactly when that's
  • 00:09:48
    going to be okay so what we're looking
  • 00:09:50
    at here this is a feature I have on
  • 00:09:52
    Thousand stocks.com this is my favorite
  • 00:09:54
    feature we have on Thousand X we have a
  • 00:09:56
    lot of great features on there but this
  • 00:09:57
    is my favorite and this is our ections
  • 00:09:59
    feature and so what it basically does is
  • 00:10:01
    it takes kind of what analysts are
  • 00:10:02
    expecting for the current year we're in
  • 00:10:04
    which is 2024 as far as net income
  • 00:10:05
    expectations Revenue expectations right
  • 00:10:08
    but then I can plug in my own custom
  • 00:10:10
    Revenue growth net income growth I'm
  • 00:10:12
    expecting for the company PE ratios and
  • 00:10:14
    then it'll spit me out what the stock
  • 00:10:15
    price should likely be somewhere around
  • 00:10:17
    there right so this is kind of an ultra
  • 00:10:19
    bull case for paler this is what some
  • 00:10:21
    investors believe is actually going to
  • 00:10:23
    happen and but I would call it my
  • 00:10:25
    personal opinion this is a very Ultra
  • 00:10:27
    bullish case b basically investors now
  • 00:10:30
    are thinking because paler growth rate
  • 00:10:31
    has been accelerating accelerating
  • 00:10:33
    accelerating accelerating investors a
  • 00:10:35
    lot of investors are starting to believe
  • 00:10:36
    paler is going to get to a 40% growth
  • 00:10:38
    rate 40% so let's say they get to 40%
  • 00:10:41
    and let's say they can hold that for the
  • 00:10:43
    next four years right 2025 to 2028 40% a
  • 00:10:46
    year Revenue growth if they do that then
  • 00:10:49
    I think net income growth is 60% is in
  • 00:10:52
    the bag if they were have Revenue growth
  • 00:10:54
    at 40% on average because the net income
  • 00:10:56
    is going to be far outstripping the
  • 00:10:57
    revenue growth of this company cuz so
  • 00:10:58
    much more that dollars coming in is
  • 00:11:00
    going to hit bottom line now at this
  • 00:11:02
    point in time right so if they're doing
  • 00:11:05
    40% a year Revenue growth they're doing
  • 00:11:06
    60% bottom line in my opinion right
  • 00:11:09
    which puts them at net income margin of
  • 00:11:10
    36% 2028 but this is important if you
  • 00:11:13
    got a company growing 40% Top Line on
  • 00:11:15
    average in the software space a SAS type
  • 00:11:17
    company like paler would be considered
  • 00:11:19
    more of a SAS type company right and you
  • 00:11:21
    got them growing net income 60% a year
  • 00:11:24
    you're going to command easily a 100 to
  • 00:11:27
    a 150p ratio on that company
  • 00:11:30
    now if you're talking about a 100 to
  • 00:11:32
    150p ratio on a 40 40% Top Line grower
  • 00:11:35
    and a 60% bottom line then you're
  • 00:11:37
    looking at likely 2027 being the year
  • 00:11:40
    when the stock crosses 120 plus and you
  • 00:11:43
    get the next Double on the stock so you
  • 00:11:45
    got to get through this year next year
  • 00:11:46
    and then at some point 2027 you
  • 00:11:48
    essentially hit that next Double right
  • 00:11:51
    once again I wouldn't Bank on that case
  • 00:11:53
    but it's a case some folks are starting
  • 00:11:55
    to run to this is a little tamed down
  • 00:11:58
    version of that case case there this is
  • 00:12:00
    what I would consider kind of a bull
  • 00:12:01
    case around paler this scenario is they
  • 00:12:04
    grow 30% revenue on average per year now
  • 00:12:06
    keep in mind they just hit 30% and
  • 00:12:08
    they've been showing acceleration so
  • 00:12:09
    it's potentially they hit higher than
  • 00:12:11
    30% in the short term but let's just
  • 00:12:12
    average it out to 30% a year for the
  • 00:12:14
    next four years right if they do that
  • 00:12:16
    they're probably hitting about 50% net
  • 00:12:18
    income growth right which puts them
  • 00:12:20
    around 37% net income margins in 2028 if
  • 00:12:23
    you've got a company growing at 30%
  • 00:12:25
    Topline 50% bottom line more of a SAS
  • 00:12:27
    related company an 80 to a one 20 p
  • 00:12:29
    ratio is very fair given those sorts of
  • 00:12:32
    growth rates right which means 2028 is
  • 00:12:35
    when you get your next Double for the
  • 00:12:36
    stock now let me take you through what I
  • 00:12:39
    actually expect personally for palente
  • 00:12:41
    tier as a shareholders company for the
  • 00:12:42
    last couple years now somebody's done
  • 00:12:44
    very well in talk let me show you what
  • 00:12:46
    I'm expecting this is what I'm
  • 00:12:48
    personally expecting for paler at this
  • 00:12:49
    point in time so this is my base case
  • 00:12:51
    for paler I expect the company to grow
  • 00:12:54
    37% in 2025 I think they're going to
  • 00:12:57
    continue to accelerate growth here in
  • 00:12:58
    the shortterm meaning the next year and
  • 00:13:01
    then I think at some point in time back
  • 00:13:03
    half of next year we into 2026 I think
  • 00:13:04
    that's when you start to actually have
  • 00:13:06
    some deceleration of the growth rate
  • 00:13:08
    keep in mind deceleration of the growth
  • 00:13:09
    rate for anybody that's a newer investor
  • 00:13:10
    of the market that's watching this that
  • 00:13:11
    doesn't mean that the the company goes
  • 00:13:13
    negative in regards to their revenue
  • 00:13:15
    that just means the the rate of growth
  • 00:13:17
    slows substantially right so I been
  • 00:13:19
    growing Revenue 37% in 2025 33% Revenue
  • 00:13:23
    growth in 2026 30% 2027 and 27% in
  • 00:13:27
    2028 now I would have them grow in 60%
  • 00:13:30
    bottom line in 2025 50% in 2026 45% in
  • 00:13:35
    2027 and 40% in 2028 I my scenario has
  • 00:13:39
    them getting to 34% net income margins
  • 00:13:41
    in 2028 which I don't think's crazy I
  • 00:13:43
    don't think that's crazy look at a lot
  • 00:13:44
    of you know more developed SAS companies
  • 00:13:47
    and look at their net income margins
  • 00:13:48
    You' be like hey that's actually doable
  • 00:13:49
    for paler here right now if we're
  • 00:13:52
    talking about this uh you know the p
  • 00:13:54
    ratio is going to command you know
  • 00:13:56
    basically the p ratio that paler will be
  • 00:13:58
    able to man will go down over the coming
  • 00:14:00
    years right we're probably in my guess
  • 00:14:03
    is this year and next year we're
  • 00:14:04
    probably in Peak p ratio land for paler
  • 00:14:09
    in regards to what type of PE ratio
  • 00:14:10
    paler commands Okay and I think that
  • 00:14:12
    will slowly go down over the coming
  • 00:14:13
    years so in 2028 if they're growing 27%
  • 00:14:16
    Topline 40% bottom line as more of a SAS
  • 00:14:19
    related company 80 to 100 PE is pretty
  • 00:14:21
    fair for a company that has those sorts
  • 00:14:23
    of growth rates in this space which
  • 00:14:24
    means actually in my base case here 2028
  • 00:14:27
    should be a year where the stock likely
  • 00:14:29
    hits at 120 plus level so that would be
  • 00:14:33
    a double up there so the moral of the
  • 00:14:35
    story is you know if you're talking
  • 00:14:37
    about the next Double for pound tier and
  • 00:14:38
    stock goes well over
  • 00:14:40
    120 you know at the earliest you're
  • 00:14:43
    probably looking 2027 is Right somewhere
  • 00:14:47
    around there um I think realistically
  • 00:14:50
    you're probably looking at more toward
  • 00:14:52
    2028 that's my guess now there's also
  • 00:14:54
    another scenario where you know the
  • 00:14:56
    company stock just continues to go crazy
  • 00:14:59
    even if they're not hitting these sorts
  • 00:15:00
    of growths and that's always a potential
  • 00:15:02
    but I like to think about it in terms of
  • 00:15:04
    like what would be a fair PE for the
  • 00:15:05
    stock given growth rates given the
  • 00:15:08
    sector they're in so that's kind of way
  • 00:15:10
    I think about it right I mean
  • 00:15:11
    technically pounder could be $120 today
  • 00:15:13
    it could be $11,000 today like you know
  • 00:15:16
    any stock could technically trade any
  • 00:15:17
    price but we got to be somewhat
  • 00:15:19
    realistic about this right so that's
  • 00:15:20
    kind of my thoughts here and that's why
  • 00:15:22
    the the further the stock pushes into
  • 00:15:24
    year endend the tougher the setup is for
  • 00:15:26
    major gains over the coming years right
  • 00:15:29
    so that's just you know a little food
  • 00:15:30
    for thought in regards to that in
  • 00:15:32
    regards to paler right now what about
  • 00:15:34
    Sofi so here's a deal SOI honestly could
  • 00:15:38
    keep rolling shortterm pretty easily and
  • 00:15:41
    and the reason being is if you continue
  • 00:15:42
    to have this momentum in the Russell
  • 00:15:45
    2000 right now Sofi is a a much bigger
  • 00:15:48
    market cap than like the Russell 2000
  • 00:15:49
    stocks but it kind of gets put into a
  • 00:15:51
    lot of the same category as like a small
  • 00:15:53
    cap stock because Sofi in the banking
  • 00:15:56
    space is actually a small little company
  • 00:15:58
    even in the fin Tech space they're a
  • 00:15:59
    small little company if you compare them
  • 00:16:01
    against fintech Giants if you compare
  • 00:16:03
    them against banking Giants SOI is like
  • 00:16:05
    a little you know a little newborn in
  • 00:16:07
    the game compared to those big giants in
  • 00:16:09
    regards to the number Sofi does versus
  • 00:16:11
    those companies right so if the Russell
  • 00:16:13
    keeps rolling you get the NASDAQ to keep
  • 00:16:14
    rolling you at the end of year rally you
  • 00:16:16
    get retail momentum to continue to be
  • 00:16:18
    there which it seems to be there in
  • 00:16:21
    regards to retail momentum right and you
  • 00:16:24
    just get that endof year kind of Market
  • 00:16:26
    move up Santa Claus rally so could
  • 00:16:29
    easily continue to to roll here in the
  • 00:16:31
    short term and um you know so I I'd be
  • 00:16:34
    careful trying to bank that SOI Stock's
  • 00:16:36
    going to crash anytime soon just to be
  • 00:16:38
    quite Frank with you now when's the next
  • 00:16:40
    double up of the stock when does a stock
  • 00:16:42
    go to you know $30 plus well here's what
  • 00:16:45
    I believe so sofi's last quarter it was
  • 00:16:48
    an A minus uh income statement
  • 00:16:51
    phenomenal numbers from Sofi listen if
  • 00:16:54
    this company keeps coming in with these
  • 00:16:56
    sorts of reports and a minus grade a
  • 00:16:59
    grade A+ grade something with an a in
  • 00:17:01
    front of it I think this stock is 30
  • 00:17:03
    plus within 24
  • 00:17:05
    months if they keep coming in next
  • 00:17:08
    quarter is another a grade next quarter
  • 00:17:09
    is another a grade next I mean it could
  • 00:17:11
    be within 12 months so that's something
  • 00:17:14
    to kind of keep in mind here in regards
  • 00:17:15
    to Sofi like this one's momentum could
  • 00:17:17
    continue to be ridiculous for the next
  • 00:17:19
    one to two years if they keep coming in
  • 00:17:21
    with these sorts of great reports now if
  • 00:17:24
    they falter that's going to completely
  • 00:17:26
    change the you know kind of way people
  • 00:17:28
    View Sofi like all they come in with a c
  • 00:17:31
    let's say next reports another Banger
  • 00:17:32
    and then they come in with like a c
  • 00:17:33
    grade income statement right well then
  • 00:17:35
    people's opinions will change in sour
  • 00:17:37
    very quickly in regards to Sofi but dude
  • 00:17:39
    I'm telling you if they keep coming in
  • 00:17:41
    with these a
  • 00:17:42
    grades put it to sleep like you know
  • 00:17:45
    we're going 30 plus here you know and
  • 00:17:47
    not too distant in the future so that's
  • 00:17:49
    kind of My Views in regards to that
  • 00:17:51
    subject I hope you guys enjoyed that
  • 00:17:53
    part uh My Views all around uh paler and
  • 00:17:56
    Sofi there okay let's go ahead and react
  • 00:17:57
    to some videos what do you say two
  • 00:18:00
    pillars of the tech trade software and
  • 00:18:02
    semi stocks heading in different
  • 00:18:04
    directions in this second half of the
  • 00:18:06
    year the IG
  • 00:18:09
    VF up it sounds like I give up right
  • 00:18:12
    that's what it looks like I give up it's
  • 00:18:14
    not what you do up 22% since the start
  • 00:18:17
    of July while the SMH chip ETF has
  • 00:18:21
    gotten crunched down more than 6% top
  • 00:18:24
    software names making major moves higher
  • 00:18:26
    in that time Oracle service now sales
  • 00:18:29
    for snowflake all up double digits while
  • 00:18:31
    big chip stocks continue to trade lower
  • 00:18:35
    lamb research Amat Micron Qualcomm down
  • 00:18:39
    10% or more so will the second half
  • 00:18:41
    separation in Tech continue into the
  • 00:18:43
    year end let's get to that but why don't
  • 00:18:46
    we begin with your Reflections on the
  • 00:18:48
    fact that here we go again another Dow
  • 00:18:50
    record high the S&P 5969 close to 6,000
  • 00:18:55
    then lead me to the tech no stopping it
  • 00:18:57
    there's no stopping it now if I had told
  • 00:18:58
    you if I said Tyler mat there's going to
  • 00:19:00
    be a headline this week that Russia
  • 00:19:02
    fired icbms into the Ukraine what's
  • 00:19:05
    going to happen to the market and you'd
  • 00:19:07
    be well if You' said it to me I'd be
  • 00:19:08
    like well the S&P is easily down 100
  • 00:19:10
    handles the vix is north of 25 Gold's up
  • 00:19:12
    $100 10e yields are probably
  • 00:19:15
    significantly lower under a flights of
  • 00:19:16
    quality none of that happened so I guess
  • 00:19:19
    if nothing else that just shows you the
  • 00:19:20
    resilience of the broader market and
  • 00:19:22
    passive invest listen this this battle
  • 00:19:26
    conflict whatever you want to call it's
  • 00:19:27
    been going on for several years now at
  • 00:19:28
    this point in time and people view this
  • 00:19:31
    as it doesn't affect anything really in
  • 00:19:34
    reality to the economy now at this point
  • 00:19:35
    in time when it first started it was
  • 00:19:37
    viewed as like oh it's going to cause
  • 00:19:38
    Commodities to do this now at this point
  • 00:19:40
    in time now it's going going on several
  • 00:19:41
    years people are as far as when I say
  • 00:19:43
    people I'm talking about Investors are
  • 00:19:45
    basically just treating that conflict
  • 00:19:46
    now like when stuff happens in the
  • 00:19:48
    Middle East like stuff happens in the
  • 00:19:49
    Middle East all the time and they're
  • 00:19:50
    like you know life goes on like oh
  • 00:19:53
    something happened in the Middle East
  • 00:19:54
    okay you know that's the way that that
  • 00:19:55
    conflict's being viewed now at this
  • 00:19:57
    point in time not saying that's right
  • 00:19:58
    I'm just telling what the Market's doing
  • 00:20:00
    and so um yeah to to to expect the
  • 00:20:03
    market to crash because you know Russia
  • 00:20:05
    did this like okay good luck being
  • 00:20:07
    fourth you know first and foremost in
  • 00:20:08
    everybody's mind with all that said I
  • 00:20:11
    mean you have to say at some point
  • 00:20:13
    things can get a little dicey here given
  • 00:20:15
    all the geopolitical gits out there and
  • 00:20:16
    all the other things we're going to talk
  • 00:20:17
    about later in the show yeah let's let's
  • 00:20:19
    move on then to uh and there's also a
  • 00:20:21
    view that were what less than 2 months
  • 00:20:24
    away now from Trump getting in office
  • 00:20:25
    and there's a view that a lot of
  • 00:20:27
    individuals have especially a lot of
  • 00:20:28
    investors that Trump's going to calm
  • 00:20:30
    things down in regards to that whole
  • 00:20:32
    conflict so that is something else to to
  • 00:20:34
    kind of factor in here you know the this
  • 00:20:36
    outperformance yeah the one guy didn't
  • 00:20:38
    answer you can say it Tyler no no wait a
  • 00:20:40
    second that's said listen to how we led
  • 00:20:42
    the show before we get into it what are
  • 00:20:44
    your thoughts on the market okay he's a
  • 00:20:46
    little he's a little defensive Tyler I'm
  • 00:20:47
    not and I'm happy to talk about this
  • 00:20:50
    because I think uh we're going to maybe
  • 00:20:52
    even talk about the underperformance of
  • 00:20:54
    semis although maybe this is that
  • 00:20:55
    conversation right now so it's partially
  • 00:20:58
    because I think we've priced in so much
  • 00:20:59
    good news that you had a day after the
  • 00:21:02
    day after on Nvidia in other words uh
  • 00:21:04
    stock finally did give up a little bit
  • 00:21:06
    down today right yeah I didn't yeah
  • 00:21:08
    there it is but but I I you know as we
  • 00:21:10
    argued even yesterday and I think even
  • 00:21:12
    the 3.4% move today is something that
  • 00:21:14
    you know all things considered the the
  • 00:21:16
    zoom into those numbers the fact that I
  • 00:21:18
    think they kind of downshifted
  • 00:21:19
    successfully in terms of the guide but
  • 00:21:21
    software is moving because it is really
  • 00:21:23
    seen as the next reverberation out you
  • 00:21:25
    throw a pebble in the Water Guy what
  • 00:21:27
    happens well you get rippled okay you
  • 00:21:29
    get ripple effect and that's really what
  • 00:21:31
    I think is happen no but I mean then the
  • 00:21:33
    ripples go away the ripples go away
  • 00:21:34
    eventually and I think at some point
  • 00:21:36
    what we've seen other times is software
  • 00:21:37
    have has actually followed semis and I
  • 00:21:40
    think that's happened again I think
  • 00:21:41
    software uh ton of upgrades this week
  • 00:21:43
    but we heard it from everybody from
  • 00:21:45
    Snowflake even data dog who I think you
  • 00:21:47
    know 6% of their ARR is is actually an
  • 00:21:50
    AI customer base yet that base tripled
  • 00:21:53
    in the last year that's the kind of
  • 00:21:55
    thing you do in software and none of
  • 00:21:56
    these valuations make sense and we've
  • 00:21:58
    talked about this with paler I think it
  • 00:22:00
    was 38 times forward sales which is
  • 00:22:02
    absurd but the argument here is that if
  • 00:22:05
    you're playing AI you're playing it
  • 00:22:06
    through the the enablers and software
  • 00:22:08
    platforms have different ways to do it
  • 00:22:10
    and frankly that's the way a lot of the
  • 00:22:12
    consumers are reaching out but more
  • 00:22:13
    importantly Enterprise is happening
  • 00:22:15
    right now and I think it continues bonan
  • 00:22:17
    thoughts on the broader Market hitting
  • 00:22:19
    new highs on the Dow uh the S&P within a
  • 00:22:23
    hair of 6,000 or pick up on Tim's
  • 00:22:26
    thinking on the semis versus soft so I'm
  • 00:22:29
    going to be defensive and offensive I'm
  • 00:22:30
    going to avoid the question first and
  • 00:22:32
    then answer it second ni so um in terms
  • 00:22:34
    of the broader Market listen I think
  • 00:22:36
    we're in essentially an everything rally
  • 00:22:39
    right now going into the Nvidia print I
  • 00:22:40
    think a lot of us spoke about how we
  • 00:22:42
    were a bit concerned about that we'd
  • 00:22:43
    like to see it perhaps trade a little
  • 00:22:44
    flat or perhaps just be a bit more
  • 00:22:46
    defensive in terms of posturing before
  • 00:22:48
    going into that print I think that kind
  • 00:22:50
    of explains the move that we saw post
  • 00:22:51
    earnings because it was yet another
  • 00:22:54
    blowout quarter I think questions about
  • 00:22:55
    blackw Supply and ability uh and and and
  • 00:22:58
    back ordering and pull forward of uh of
  • 00:23:00
    ordering there I think those those um
  • 00:23:02
    concerns have been assuaged and then in
  • 00:23:04
    terms of the Divergence between um what
  • 00:23:06
    we're seeing from um SMH and I give up
  • 00:23:10
    is you know a lot of those Nam let's
  • 00:23:11
    take Sal Salesforce for example the
  • 00:23:13
    question was and this is also with some
  • 00:23:15
    of the
  • 00:23:16
    hyperscalers this AI related cap capex
  • 00:23:19
    spin needs to be justified that was the
  • 00:23:21
    prevailing wisdom at the time and and
  • 00:23:23
    these companies were coming under
  • 00:23:24
    pressure because investors really didn't
  • 00:23:26
    feel like they had an accurate answer to
  • 00:23:28
    that question you saw Salesforce trade
  • 00:23:30
    off I don't know what it was 20 25% post
  • 00:23:33
    earnings and so a lot of the those names
  • 00:23:35
    had gotten beaten up coming into the
  • 00:23:37
    print and so that that explains a bit of
  • 00:23:39
    it it's essentially you have like a star
  • 00:23:41
    player like Nvidia dragging up the rest
  • 00:23:43
    of the balance and so you've kind of
  • 00:23:44
    been mired in in that drag because again
  • 00:23:47
    there's been so in regards to nvidia's
  • 00:23:49
    stock and what's going on here it's very
  • 00:23:51
    very important to everybody understands
  • 00:23:53
    this when Nvidia makes a move and it can
  • 00:23:56
    happen quick the stock could be at a
  • 00:23:58
    total different like if we get QQQ
  • 00:24:00
    momentum in the year end Nvidia stock
  • 00:24:02
    could easily go from you know 140 to 190
  • 00:24:05
    or 140 to 175 like that or 140 to 190
  • 00:24:10
    like that it can happen in a matter of
  • 00:24:12
    weeks or a month month and a half like
  • 00:24:14
    it happens quick like look at this move
  • 00:24:16
    you you know went into January beginning
  • 00:24:19
    of January nvidia's you know let me get
  • 00:24:21
    rid of the cues here and let me get rid
  • 00:24:23
    of S&P 500 so Nvidia at this particular
  • 00:24:27
    time 47 right and that's the beginning
  • 00:24:29
    of January you know by the beginning of
  • 00:24:32
    March two months later Nvidia is
  • 00:24:35
    92 so we're talking about almost a
  • 00:24:39
    double up almost a double up right in
  • 00:24:42
    two months in two months the stock
  • 00:24:44
    almost doubled there would be like this
  • 00:24:46
    stock going from 140 to like let's call
  • 00:24:49
    it you know cuz not quite a double let's
  • 00:24:51
    call it to 270 over the next two months
  • 00:24:55
    right right here stock is this is kind
  • 00:24:58
    of you know late April stocks
  • 00:25:02
    7576 and then the stock June couple
  • 00:25:05
    months later right is
  • 00:25:09
    135 I mean it's just insane almost
  • 00:25:11
    another double up so that's why I'm
  • 00:25:13
    saying like if you get some momentum in
  • 00:25:16
    Nvidia stock the stock could move you
  • 00:25:19
    know $40 $50 a share before you even got
  • 00:25:22
    a chance to to catch your breath and
  • 00:25:24
    look at it and be like what is going on
  • 00:25:26
    here so little fo or thought in regards
  • 00:25:27
    to that some Divergence between AI
  • 00:25:29
    related capex Spin and then capex spin
  • 00:25:32
    going
  • 00:25:34
    forward okay next video up here let's
  • 00:25:36
    react to this one on and leaning further
  • 00:25:38
    into Nvidia and Tesla Ben SNY Goldman
  • 00:25:41
    Sachs senior us Equity strategist joins
  • 00:25:43
    us right here on set Ben welcome be with
  • 00:25:46
    you YOLO is this a YOLO fomo frothy
  • 00:25:49
    Market to you or is this oh man he makes
  • 00:25:52
    me want to shave my head again I might
  • 00:25:53
    have to shave it again what you would
  • 00:25:55
    expect given seasonality given the fact
  • 00:25:57
    that we just got through a presid
  • 00:25:58
    presential election you got a red wave
  • 00:26:00
    and you have earnings continuing to
  • 00:26:02
    power higher I think you know before the
  • 00:26:04
    election the Outlook looked really solid
  • 00:26:06
    had good earnings growth we're
  • 00:26:07
    forecasting 11% earnings growth for next
  • 00:26:09
    year you have a Fed that is in the
  • 00:26:11
    progress of a cutting cycle that's a
  • 00:26:13
    good backdrop and the real question is
  • 00:26:15
    how much has that changed post elction
  • 00:26:17
    if I look at what the market is telling
  • 00:26:18
    us the market is telling us it's
  • 00:26:20
    incrementally more confident in the
  • 00:26:22
    growth Outlook okay so what are you
  • 00:26:24
    confident in what would you be buying in
  • 00:26:26
    this market right now well one thing
  • 00:26:27
    we've been focusing on is of course the
  • 00:26:30
    extremely elevated degree of
  • 00:26:31
    concentration in the market and
  • 00:26:33
    relatively elevated valuation multiples
  • 00:26:35
    compared to history but if you pair that
  • 00:26:38
    with a pretty good fundamental backdrop
  • 00:26:39
    as I was just discussing there should
  • 00:26:41
    still be very attractive pockets of the
  • 00:26:43
    equity market for investors to look at
  • 00:26:46
    and for us one interesting and
  • 00:26:48
    overlooked pocket is midcap equities you
  • 00:26:50
    have this big group of stocks they trade
  • 00:26:52
    with very large market caps very high
  • 00:26:55
    profitability and most investors have
  • 00:26:57
    completely overlooked them and the
  • 00:26:58
    result of that is they trade almost
  • 00:27:00
    exactly in line with their historical
  • 00:27:02
    average valuation
  • 00:27:03
    multiples so in terms of the tech trade
  • 00:27:06
    obviously we got Nvidia earnings this
  • 00:27:08
    week that was seen as kind of a a key
  • 00:27:10
    Catalyst one way or the other for the
  • 00:27:11
    broader markets didn't really play out
  • 00:27:13
    that way um because even though it was
  • 00:27:15
    it was a beaten rais quarter it wasn't
  • 00:27:17
    as strong as investors were hoping and
  • 00:27:19
    and the street was whispering and yet
  • 00:27:21
    we're PO for gains for the major
  • 00:27:23
    averages so what does that tell us about
  • 00:27:25
    the concentration you just talked about
  • 00:27:26
    and and thus the rotation we're
  • 00:27:28
    I think it's very clear that the mag 7
  • 00:27:30
    or the AI stocks whatever group you want
  • 00:27:32
    to look at the earnings growth continues
  • 00:27:35
    but it's also clear that the
  • 00:27:37
    acceleration that growth seems to be
  • 00:27:39
    slowing and likewise the beats that
  • 00:27:40
    we're seeing every quarter they're
  • 00:27:42
    getting a little bit smaller every
  • 00:27:43
    quarter and so investors are asking
  • 00:27:45
    themselves what's the next part of the
  • 00:27:47
    AI trade and we've been focused on
  • 00:27:50
    software we are calling that phase three
  • 00:27:52
    of the AI trade basically so far
  • 00:27:54
    investors have been focused first on
  • 00:27:56
    semiconductors then on the broader
  • 00:27:58
    infrastructure what we call Phase 2
  • 00:28:00
    including electrical utilities and we
  • 00:28:02
    think now it's time to start looking at
  • 00:28:04
    phase three which is mostly the software
  • 00:28:06
    companies that can use AI to generate
  • 00:28:08
    revenues for themselves although the the
  • 00:28:10
    move lately has been out of chips and
  • 00:28:12
    into software so is that story already
  • 00:28:14
    well understood by the street I think
  • 00:28:16
    it's starting to be understood you know
  • 00:28:17
    Ju Just this week we published our
  • 00:28:18
    quarterly analysis of position filings
  • 00:28:21
    in the hedge fund Universe we looked at
  • 00:28:23
    almost 800 hedge funds and of course we
  • 00:28:25
    saw something we see almost every
  • 00:28:27
    quarter which is the mag 7 are the most
  • 00:28:29
    popular long positions but what we also
  • 00:28:32
    saw is on average funds shifted a little
  • 00:28:34
    bit away from those stocks and towards
  • 00:28:36
    software and this was really the first
  • 00:28:38
    quarter where we saw that move take
  • 00:28:39
    place you think there's more to go on we
  • 00:28:41
    think it's just the beginning of this
  • 00:28:42
    trend we've been making jokes about the
  • 00:28:44
    12-month uh index projections a lot of
  • 00:28:47
    them are around 6,500 S&P is that sort
  • 00:28:50
    of a standard let's give it 10% because
  • 00:28:52
    so much of policy right now is not clear
  • 00:28:55
    what's what's on the way there's
  • 00:28:57
    certainly a lot of uncertainty uh we're
  • 00:28:59
    trying to work with what we have and
  • 00:29:00
    where we have clarity as I mentioned
  • 00:29:02
    earlier one place we have Clarity is the
  • 00:29:04
    health of the economy and the health of
  • 00:29:06
    earnings growth even before the election
  • 00:29:07
    we're forecasting about 11% earnings
  • 00:29:09
    growth for next year that corresponds
  • 00:29:11
    with about a 10 or 11% return that's how
  • 00:29:13
    we got to0 the question then is what is
  • 00:29:15
    a baseline China tariff right no one
  • 00:29:17
    really knows although some base cases
  • 00:29:19
    are taking it to 60 yeah our base case
  • 00:29:21
    is smaller than 60 we're assuming a 20%
  • 00:29:24
    tariff on the other end we're expecting
  • 00:29:26
    some modest tax cuts perhaps some d
  • 00:29:28
    regulation when we put that all together
  • 00:29:30
    we think it Nets out to not a major
  • 00:29:32
    change for earnings but of course we'll
  • 00:29:33
    be watching the headlines like everyone
  • 00:29:34
    else well midcaps and small caps have
  • 00:29:37
    benefited as a result of the belief that
  • 00:29:38
    there's going to be a lower tax rate
  • 00:29:40
    domestically right I mean can that
  • 00:29:41
    continue to play out yeah midcaps
  • 00:29:44
    benefit from as I said earlier strong
  • 00:29:46
    earnings growth as you said they're
  • 00:29:47
    relatively insulated from tariffs
  • 00:29:49
    because they tend to be more domestic
  • 00:29:50
    facing and yes they're more exposed to
  • 00:29:52
    the US economy so if there's
  • 00:29:54
    deregulation tax cuts other factors that
  • 00:29:56
    boost us growth they should continue to
  • 00:29:58
    outperform but we'll have to see what
  • 00:30:00
    policies are implemented uh in late
  • 00:30:02
    January I mean small caps are just in a
  • 00:30:03
    Sweet Spot uh for the really next I
  • 00:30:06
    would say 6 to 12 months and the reason
  • 00:30:07
    being is inflation's done so there's no
  • 00:30:09
    more fear around inflation and how
  • 00:30:11
    that's going to hurt the small caps
  • 00:30:12
    rates are likely going lower from here
  • 00:30:14
    over this next year which bodess well
  • 00:30:16
    for small caps additionally Trump coming
  • 00:30:17
    in office uh small caps did tremendous
  • 00:30:19
    under Trump you know from basically when
  • 00:30:22
    he got in office until Rona happened
  • 00:30:25
    right and so from that Viewpoint a lot
  • 00:30:27
    of people want own small caps and also
  • 00:30:29
    small caps have not done anything for
  • 00:30:31
    years I I went ahead and took a look at
  • 00:30:33
    this recently I think it was the video I
  • 00:30:35
    did on the main Channel a couple days
  • 00:30:36
    ago and what I showed is that the
  • 00:30:39
    Russell 2000 versus inflation over the
  • 00:30:42
    last few years and the Russell's real
  • 00:30:44
    return is like -33% over the past 3
  • 00:30:47
    years that's what it was the Russell's
  • 00:30:49
    real return over the past 3 years was
  • 00:30:51
    like- 13% like if you look at it it's
  • 00:30:53
    basically like Flatline but we'
  • 00:30:54
    basically had 133% of inflation in
  • 00:30:57
    general on everything right over the
  • 00:30:59
    past 3 years and so you know it honestly
  • 00:31:02
    feels like a lot more than 13% when you
  • 00:31:03
    really add up the re real numbers so the
  • 00:31:05
    real numbers like it might be a lot
  • 00:31:07
    worse than than 13% but the moral of the
  • 00:31:10
    story is Russell hasn't done anything
  • 00:31:11
    for years so there's just so many
  • 00:31:13
    Tailwinds behind this Russell 2000 for
  • 00:31:16
    the next 6 to 12 months and then a lot
  • 00:31:18
    of people are kind of also burnt out of
  • 00:31:19
    just buying the big Tech which obviously
  • 00:31:21
    we've seen recently cuz all those big
  • 00:31:23
    techs are kind of just floundering
  • 00:31:24
    around and so they're looking like what
  • 00:31:26
    else did I invest in oh small cap stocks
  • 00:31:28
    and the more momentum that will build in
  • 00:31:30
    the Russell 2000 the more momentum that
  • 00:31:32
    will build in the Russell 2000 cuz the
  • 00:31:34
    more that baby starts to roll and small
  • 00:31:36
    caps start to roll the more investors
  • 00:31:37
    going to be looking like dang that's
  • 00:31:38
    where the money's being made okay I got
  • 00:31:39
    a flood over there I got a flood over
  • 00:31:41
    there oh who cares about Nvidia stock
  • 00:31:43
    anymore I'm in this small cap that's
  • 00:31:45
    moving huge honest is a great example NS
  • 00:31:48
    hnst honest is outperforming everybody
  • 00:31:50
    they're destroying nvidia's returns
  • 00:31:52
    they're destroying paler returns they're
  • 00:31:54
    destroying everybody's returns really
  • 00:31:55
    out there right and it's just some small
  • 00:31:58
    cap company and so the more you stories
  • 00:31:59
    you start to see like honest the more
  • 00:32:01
    people are going to be like that's where
  • 00:32:02
    I need to be cuz that's where I can
  • 00:32:04
    double my money over the next year next
  • 00:32:06
    six months or next three months or
  • 00:32:07
    whatever versus these other big
  • 00:32:09
    companies that you know don't have as
  • 00:32:11
    good of growth or whatever the situation
  • 00:32:12
    is right so that's um the Russell just
  • 00:32:15
    has a lot of Tailwinds over the short
  • 00:32:16
    term see at this point isn't it I think
  • 00:32:19
    that's right yeah the other thing and
  • 00:32:21
    note from you guys in the last few weeks
  • 00:32:22
    which we talked a lot about was the
  • 00:32:24
    longer term look at maybe suppressed
  • 00:32:26
    returns over a decade relative to Prior
  • 00:32:28
    decades because of that concentration
  • 00:32:30
    and coston's talked about that has that
  • 00:32:32
    view evolved in recent weeks at all when
  • 00:32:35
    we're looking out over 10 years plus uh
  • 00:32:37
    it doesn't it shouldn't change very much
  • 00:32:38
    week to week it hasn't changed very much
  • 00:32:40
    week to week for us really we're trying
  • 00:32:42
    to think about the world in two
  • 00:32:43
    different investment Horizons right the
  • 00:32:45
    first is what does growth look like what
  • 00:32:47
    does policy look like what does that
  • 00:32:49
    mean for investors in 2025 when I look
  • 00:32:51
    out 10 years it's very hard to know what
  • 00:32:53
    the next Administration will even be so
  • 00:32:55
    we're really thinking more about where
  • 00:32:57
    evaluation today where is concentration
  • 00:32:59
    today and it's hard to argue with the
  • 00:33:01
    fact that those are very high compared
  • 00:33:02
    to history true all righty guys
  • 00:33:04
    appreciate you joining me as always once
  • 00:33:05
    again we're only a few days away what
  • 00:33:06
    are we 3 days away 4 days away something
  • 00:33:08
    like that uh 5 days away from the Black
  • 00:33:10
    Friday sale so pin comment down there
  • 00:33:13
    for access to the Black Friday sale if
  • 00:33:15
    you want access on that one day deal
  • 00:33:17
    November 29th once again you might want
  • 00:33:19
    to put in your phone number so you have
  • 00:33:20
    it text over the deal instead of just
  • 00:33:23
    via email but do whatever you want okay
  • 00:33:25
    but once again it's one day sale when
  • 00:33:26
    it's over it's
  • 00:33:28
    all over much love and have a great day
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