DANGER ZONE: THIS IS A TRUE "MAKE OR BREAK" MOMENT FOR THE STOCK MARKET. THIS IS WHY. Mannarino

00:10:15
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OjREJz9dkk

Résumé

TLDRIn this video, Manarino discusses the recent market developments following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, an action that unexpectedly pressured the market. He explains that the market, including futures, remains tense, and has not recovered, even dropping below previous lows. The focus is on the treasury yield's drop, considered a miracle boosting trades, with speculation of Federal Reserve involvement. Manarino explains various factors influencing market conditions and suggests this coming week is crucial for market direction, predicting possible gains but also potential setbacks if Federal Reserve actions aren't favorable. He advises buying solid commodities such as gold and silver over cryptocurrencies, while also mentioning the MMRI as a tool to watch. The video emphasizes caution and strategic observation in the current economic climate, inviting viewers to contribute their thoughts on potential Federal Reserve interventions.

A retenir

  • 📉 Market under pressure after rate cut
  • 🔍 Speculation on Fed's actions
  • 🪙 Advice to buy gold and silver
  • 📊 Crucial market week ahead
  • 📈 Treasury yield drops, aiding futures
  • ⚠️ Fear and Greed index in fear zone
  • 💰 Potential Federal Reserve intervention
  • 🔮 Possible market recovery signals
  • 🛑 Caution against picking market tops
  • 🏦 Central banks as last resort lenders

Chronologie

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    On January 3, 2025, the market is under pressure following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, leading to a selloff. Despite efforts, the market hasn't recovered, having dropped below previous lows. Stock futures are higher, but concerns arise as the market enters a 'Danger Zone'. Interestingly, the 10-year treasury yield drops, possibly indicating Federal Reserve intervention, affecting market futures favorably. The current market situation heavily relies on Federal Reserve actions, as indicated by the MMRI (Market Momentum Risk Indicator). If the Fed buys more debt, the market could improve; otherwise, it may decline. With the market in "fear", investors typically start buying, but if this doesn't occur, it signals potential issues. The focus should shift to the debt market's broader impact rather than just stock performance.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:15

    Looking ahead, next week could be crucial for the stock market's direction. Typically, significant gains are expected starting Monday, but if they don't materialize, it could indicate a downward trend. The central banks, as the lenders and buyers of last resort, play a crucial role. Investors are advised to remain neutral and cautious while potentially purchasing physical assets like gold and silver. The looming debt market implosion is expected to drive cash into commodities and cryptocurrencies. The Fed's next moves, possibly involving buying more debt to push the MMRI lower, are under speculation. However, the community's collective intelligence is important for navigating these uncertainties. The next significant insight will be shared during the live stream at 4:5 PM Eastern. The speaker also encourages audience interaction and feedback regarding Federal Reserve actions.

Carte mentale

Vidéo Q&R

  • What caused the selloff in the stock market?

    The selloff was caused by the Federal Reserve's cut of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.

  • How did the market react to the Federal Reserve's rate cut?

    The market has been under pressure and has not recovered since the rate cut.

  • What happened to the 10-year treasury yield this morning?

    The 10-year treasury yield dropped by more than two basis points, which boosted futures.

  • What is the MMRI mentioned in the video?

    The MMRI is an indicator that has dropped slightly, influencing market movements based on Federal Reserve actions.

  • What does the speaker predict about the stock market next week?

    The speaker believes next week will be a 'make or break' moment for the stock market, with potential for gains.

  • What is the speaker's advice on buying assets?

    The speaker suggests buying gold, silver, and commodities rather than focusing on cryptocurrencies.

  • Why might the Federal Reserve intervene in the market according to the speaker?

    The Federal Reserve may intervene to inflate the market by buying more debt and creating cash.

  • What are the speaker's thoughts on cryptocurrencies?

    The speaker advises against picking tops or bottoms and believes cash will eventually flow into cryptocurrencies.

  • Who are the potential buyers and lenders of the last resort mentioned?

    Central banks are indicated as potential buyers and lenders of last resort.

  • What is the speaker's take on the Fear and Greed index?

    The speaker notes that the market has dropped into the fear zone, which is traditionally seen as a buy signal.

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Défilement automatique:
  • 00:00:00
    okay everybody here we go it's me GRE
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    manarino Friday January 3rd
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    2025 I can't get used to saying that yet
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    but better start getting used to it all
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    right guys and girls listen we got to
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    talk let's let's start off with
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    this ever
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    since the selloff created uh by the
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    federal reserves cut of the federal
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    funds rate 25 basis points which had the
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    polar opposite effect of what it was
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    supposed to do with regard to the long
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    end of the year curve um this Market has
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    been under pressure we have not
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    recovered not only have we not recovered
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    although the market has tried we have
  • 00:00:43
    now fallen below the low of that day now
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    let's talk because there's a few issues
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    here first of all these are the numbers
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    this morning with regard to Futures in
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    other words where the market is pricing
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    stocks will open so higher across the
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    board trading doesn't start for about 32
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    minutes from the time I am during this
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    video blog here's a headline for you
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    from market watch the stock market has
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    entered the Danger Zone Danger Zone okay
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    um this isn't a a Tom Cruz movie here uh
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    this is some kind of reality now let's
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    let's talk about reality a little bit
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    here so this morning a miracle
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    happened treasury yields long end of the
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    curve specifically the 10year yield
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    dropped was a miracle this morning at
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    shortly after 7 a.m. I'm reading this um
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    the 10year treasury yield dropped by
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    more than two basis points it actually
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    is dropped further from that point and
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    what that did quite obviously is put a
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    little boost behind future so is this
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    the FAL Reserve directly taking action
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    here it could be uh more than likely is
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    trust me on this one the fed's watching
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    the Yi curve just like you and me are
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    period to freaking end now here's the
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    real story as to what's happening here's
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    the mmri from this morning it has
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    dropped a little bit from yesterday but
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    the real issue is well where we going
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    from here this is 100 % dependent on the
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    Federal Reserve what they're going to do
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    if the FED gets in here and starts
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    buying more debt well you're going to
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    see the mmri drop the stock market will
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    go up If the Fed does not intervene
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    you're going to see the mmri climb and
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    the stock market is going to take a hit
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    could be potentially very large now we
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    are at a make or break moment with
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    regard to the stock market here and I
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    want you to see what I'm talking about
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    so most of you have heard of the fear
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    and greed index I covered this yesterday
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    we've dropped further into fear
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    bordering extreme fear generally this is
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    considered a Buy Signal a big fat ugly
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    bicycle when you drop this low or to on
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    the level on the this gauge
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    here this is where the Cavalry generat
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    comes in you know bottom Fishers get in
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    here and they start buying okay um
  • 00:03:34
    that's an interesting phenomenon to pay
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    attention to because we don't see that
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    if we do not see this and this Market
  • 00:03:40
    continues to drop we got a big problem
  • 00:03:43
    here uh or maybe not depending on your
  • 00:03:45
    perspective this doesn't make sense none
  • 00:03:47
    of it makes sense any we have a market
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    so distorted so Twisted so absolutely
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    detached from reality there's going to
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    be a massive selloff but again the The
  • 00:03:57
    Real Crash stop focusing on the stock
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    market for just a nanc and look at the
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    bigger picture which is the driver the
  • 00:04:05
    debt Market period the end everything
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    has become a derivative now of debt
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    Market action I want to show you
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    something else this is a chart going
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    back to the end of June to where we are
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    now with regard to the S&P 500 and the
  • 00:04:20
    125 day moving average I want you to pay
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    attention to that this is where we are
  • 00:04:26
    right now here if you notice just look
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    back to this drop that was that big drop
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    after the Federal Reserve cut rates uh
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    and the market could not recover it
  • 00:04:35
    tried to you see the bump and we sold
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    right off I know we're below that right
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    now um so this tells me we really should
  • 00:04:46
    see some kind of buying here in the
  • 00:04:50
    market that too if we do not see this
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    now let me tell you something I want to
  • 00:04:54
    let you know on a little secret here
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    that you're not supposed to know next
  • 00:04:59
    week and we'll talk more about this on
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    Sunday for my markets to look
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    ahead ruly okay next week is going to be
  • 00:05:08
    the make or break moment for the stock
  • 00:05:12
    market
  • 00:05:13
    generally starting Monday of next week
  • 00:05:17
    this Market should be putting on
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    substantial gains especially in light of
  • 00:05:23
    this and of
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    that if it doesn't
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    that's going to give you and I a big fat
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    signal as to where this Market's going
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    to go and really honestly people I don't
  • 00:05:39
    know how to put this another way this is
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    what it's all dependent on right now
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    where this is going to go depending on
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    well who is right now the lender and
  • 00:05:51
    buyer of Last Resort what
  • 00:05:53
    institution you all know the answer but
  • 00:05:55
    I'm just going to say it anyway has
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    since day one
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    been attempting to be the lender and
  • 00:06:03
    buyer of Last Resort well it's central
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    banks collectively that's their goal to
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    own it
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    all well we'll see where we're at here
  • 00:06:11
    next week it's going to be very
  • 00:06:12
    interesting honestly uh we'll see don't
  • 00:06:14
    get overly giddy about this let's just
  • 00:06:17
    say for example uh the stock market
  • 00:06:21
    starts to put on gains that does not
  • 00:06:23
    mean it's over does not mean it's over
  • 00:06:26
    me I still remain neutral here I want to
  • 00:06:28
    see what's going to I'm not in any Rush
  • 00:06:31
    as you all know to jump back into this
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    freaking Market neither should you sit
  • 00:06:37
    back relax take a time off do you
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    realize honestly you and I have been
  • 00:06:41
    buying virtually every single dip in
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    this market for the last seven and a
  • 00:06:45
    half freaking years don't you think we
  • 00:06:47
    need a little break I can tell you the
  • 00:06:49
    truth I need a little break here you
  • 00:06:51
    pull profit you sit back and that's it
  • 00:06:55
    uh until this this this this thing plays
  • 00:06:58
    out let it play out now with regard to
  • 00:07:00
    other assets here people look man every
  • 00:07:03
    single opportunity that you get in my
  • 00:07:05
    opinion and and this is just me you're
  • 00:07:07
    entitle to your own you should be buying
  • 00:07:10
    gold more specifically silver gaining
  • 00:07:12
    exposure to Commodities if you're
  • 00:07:13
    looking to get into an exchange traded
  • 00:07:15
    fun here many ways to do this but me
  • 00:07:18
    personally I prefer to hold it in my
  • 00:07:20
    hand I want physical assets that I can
  • 00:07:22
    actually hold you understand with regard
  • 00:07:25
    regard to cryptocurrencies don't get
  • 00:07:26
    into business here don't stop look
  • 00:07:30
    I'm not in this business and neither
  • 00:07:31
    should you be in the business of picking
  • 00:07:33
    tops and or bottoms I believe and this
  • 00:07:36
    is my opinion you're entitled to your
  • 00:07:38
    own
  • 00:07:40
    people I believe eventually the debt
  • 00:07:43
    Market implosion which is going to
  • 00:07:45
    happen is going to drive cash into
  • 00:07:48
    Commodities and into cryptocurrencies
  • 00:07:51
    like you can't possibly believe here as
  • 00:07:53
    we're being bridged into the new system
  • 00:07:55
    the new system is a lock another reason
  • 00:07:59
    why Trump well the main re two reasons
  • 00:08:01
    two only two sincerely why Trump was
  • 00:08:05
    selected to be the Figure Head behind
  • 00:08:08
    the Resolute desk proponent of negative
  • 00:08:10
    rates which I believe we have a high
  • 00:08:12
    potential of seeing here two to bridge
  • 00:08:15
    the system into the new tokenize system
  • 00:08:18
    but again mainstreaming cryptos first
  • 00:08:21
    you
  • 00:08:22
    understand that's where we're at anyway
  • 00:08:25
    people look I want to hear from you on
  • 00:08:26
    this those of you that do utilize the
  • 00:08:28
    MMR as a tool and this is just honestly
  • 00:08:31
    we're all guessing here we have no idea
  • 00:08:33
    what the fed's going to do do you
  • 00:08:35
    believe the FED is going to get into the
  • 00:08:38
    market and start buying more debt I mean
  • 00:08:40
    it's it's an extreme possibility here uh
  • 00:08:43
    what does the FED want to do it wants to
  • 00:08:45
    inflate how does it do that by creating
  • 00:08:47
    cash out of nothing buying the debt and
  • 00:08:50
    that's that's a fact here so yes the FED
  • 00:08:53
    could absolutely step in and we're going
  • 00:08:54
    to see what they do next week again
  • 00:08:56
    people look man we have their playbook
  • 00:08:59
    we know what they're going to do more
  • 00:09:01
    than
  • 00:09:02
    likely we'll see all right I don't even
  • 00:09:04
    want to say it I want to hear from you
  • 00:09:06
    do you believe we're going to see the
  • 00:09:09
    FED step in here and push the mmri lower
  • 00:09:13
    in other words by buying more debt
  • 00:09:15
    dropping the 10year yield weakening the
  • 00:09:18
    Dollar on a relative strength basis
  • 00:09:20
    because that's all in the equation of
  • 00:09:21
    the mmri it's quite a little a little
  • 00:09:24
    tool we have here and it's free to you
  • 00:09:26
    again Link in the description of this
  • 00:09:28
    video I want to hear from you on this do
  • 00:09:29
    you believe the FED is going to start to
  • 00:09:32
    take Serious action and intervene in the
  • 00:09:36
    market or are they really going to let
  • 00:09:38
    this go right now so ponder that let me
  • 00:09:42
    know what you think I promise to read
  • 00:09:44
    the comments and look man I always tell
  • 00:09:47
    you we're stronger together I don't know
  • 00:09:49
    everything I don't even pretend to know
  • 00:09:50
    everything all of you out here are way
  • 00:09:51
    smarter than me this is our thing you
  • 00:09:53
    know that all right with that said
  • 00:09:55
    people look I will see all of you later
  • 00:09:57
    4:5 p.m. Eastern for the live stream I'm
  • 00:10:00
    looking forward to it my favorite part
  • 00:10:01
    of the day believe it or not is the live
  • 00:10:03
    stream these kind of things that's kind
  • 00:10:05
    of boring to me actually I love
  • 00:10:06
    interacting with all of you all right
  • 00:10:08
    I'll see you later people until we meet
  • 00:10:09
    again what am I going to say please take
  • 00:10:11
    care of yourselves and each other
Tags
  • Federal Reserve
  • stock market
  • treasury yields
  • MMRI
  • commodities
  • cryptocurrencies
  • debt market
  • Fear and Greed index
  • economic strategy