CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Thursday 3/13/25

The video opens with host Dave Keller welcoming viewers and providing a weather update from Redmond, Washington, including a mention of a potential lunar eclipse. Keller relates the atmospheric conditions to current market conditions, highlighting a sense of decline reminiscent of winter. He discusses a recent podcast episode he recorded regarding the 'kitchen cycle' that tracks market performance and introduces potential market patterns observed over decades.

Keller reviews market conditions stating that today's performances were disappointing, with the S&P 500 closing down 1.4%. He notes a concerning trend where late rallies are followed by sell-offs, emphasizing that significant institutional trading occurs in the final trading hour. Keller points out that the market has been declining and neared a downside target of 5,500, which he had previously identified.

The session continues with Keller detailing performance metrics from various market indices, stating that the Nasdaq Composite was down 2%, with volatility indicators showing market instability. He observes that bonds are strengthening while stocks are underperforming, a reversal of the previous month's trends, indicating a potential pullback in the market.

The host analyzes commodities, specifically noting increases in precious metals like gold and silver, contrastingly mentioning declines in crude oil. He observes cryptocurrencies mirroring movements in equities, emphasizing their speculative nature and the volatility seen within this asset class. He describes the general downtrend across all S&P sectors with slight exceptions.

Keller discusses market breadth, noting a significant number of stocks declining compared to those rising. He also touches on major tech stocks, providing insights into their performance, with particular emphasis on the 'Magnificent Seven.' He expresses concern regarding the overall market structure, suggesting that most stocks are performing poorly, contrasting claims of a 'narrow decline.'

Keller highlights the performance of the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors, pointing out significant declines in major stocks like Amazon and Meta. He expands on negative breadth conditions and contrasts that with earlier market behavior when select stocks still performed well despite market downturns.

In his analysis of the broader market environment, Keller examines charts indicating bearish trends, noting concerning breakouts and potential points of further decline. His insights incorporate Fibonacci retracement analysis and clarify the possibility of a bounce at key support levels while maintaining a cautiously bearish outlook overall.

The discussion shifts to notable outperformers, including Intel and defense stocks, which bucked the overall downward trend. Keller continues to emphasize the importance of identifying areas of strength, particularly in relation to prevailing weaknesses across the market, and suggests keeping an eye on valuable sectors.