US markets slump again as China trade war deepens

00:23:28
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mz5FMxbZE1E

Résumé

TLDRThe video delves into the tumultuous impact of the US-China trade war on financial markets, following a striking hike in tariffs by the US. Notably, President Trump's administration celebrates what it claims to be historic achievements while grappling with the fallout from its aggressive trade policies, which have led to instability in bond and stock markets. Analysts highlight the severe uncertainty creating a stasis in corporate investment decisions, alongside fierce responses from China emphasizing their resilience. The dialogue presents conflicting views on the efficacy of Trump's tariffs, public sentiment towards his administration, and the potential implications for global economic health, culminating in concerns over a possible recession.

A retenir

  • 📉 Markets are reacting negatively to rising tariffs amidst trade uncertainty.
  • 🤝 The US recently increased tariffs on China to 145%.
  • 🌍 Concerns arise over potential global recession due to trade wars.
  • 💼 Companies are delaying investments and hiring due to uncertainty.
  • 🇨🇳 China vows to respond to US tariffs, asserting its market resilience.
  • 🗣️ Analysts express skepticism about the longevity of Trump's trade policies.
  • 📊 Consumer prices may rise as tariffs affect goods, impacting daily life.
  • 📈 A significant portion of American voters still support Trump's approach despite economic concerns.
  • ⚖️ Trade policies are causing trust issues in US institutions among global partners.
  • ✍️ Public opinion shows a strong loyalty to Trump, complicating economic critique.

Chronologie

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    昨天是我们国家历史上最大的日子，市场表现非常好，而特朗普总统则邀请媒体进入内阁会议。随着中国贸易战的持续，市场不安，再加上对新关税的担忧，投资决策受到影响，经济学家们对此难以预测。国会山上的共和党通过了一项预算案，但贸易政策仍然缺乏明确性。

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    中国对于美方的关税加征强硬回应，称其不会屈服于美国的压力，甚至准备寻找其他市场来弥补美国的损失。中国强调自己的经济长期以来已经生存繁荣，并表示对美国的威胁置之不理。

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    美国与中国的贸易战导致双方都深陷不利境地，全球经济也受到影响。虽然美国GDP远超中国，但中国正在快速增长，双方在技术和稀土矿物等领域的竞争加剧，从而引发的不确定性令全球市场动荡。

  • 00:15:00 - 00:23:28

    随着市场的波动，美国国内对特朗普政策的支持和反对声交错，民众对经济的未来感到迷茫。同时，舆论认为美国的外交政策信任度正在下降，这可能对特朗普在2024年大选中的表现产生深远影响。

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Carte mentale

Vidéo Q&R

  • What caused the recent market instability?

    The recent instability was caused by significant increases in tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods, leading to heightened uncertainty in financial markets.

  • How high were the tariffs against China?

    The tariffs were hiked to 145% on Chinese imports.

  • What impact are the tariffs having on companies?

    Companies are pausing investment and hiring decisions due to the uncertainty surrounding trade policies.

  • What is the general sentiment towards US trade policy?

    There is a lack of trust in US trade policy, with many governments unsure of future negotiations.

  • What are the economic comparisons between the US and China?

    The US GDP is approximately $25.5 trillion, while China's is $18 trillion, but the US has a higher wealth per capita.

  • What is the reaction from China regarding the tariffs?

    China has vowed to respond in kind and is prepared to endure the consequences of the trade war.

  • How are Americans perceiving President Trump's actions?

    Many Americans express loyalty to Trump, feeling that he is addressing long-standing trade issues, despite mixed feelings about his economic policies.

  • What do analysts say about the future of the trade war?

    Analysts predict potential recession if the trade war escalates further, impacting global economies.

  • What lessons do various commentators draw from the current situation?

    Commentators suggest that trust in US institutions is waning and emphasize the need for clear and stable trade policies.

  • What are the effects of the tariffs on ordinary consumers?

    Ordinary consumers are likely to bear the brunt of increased prices due to tariffs, leading to financial strain.

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Sous-titres
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Défilement automatique:
  • 00:00:00
    We had a big day yesterday. There'll
  • 00:00:01
    always be
  • 00:00:03
    transition difficulty, but we had a in
  • 00:00:07
    history, it was the biggest day in
  • 00:00:09
    history, the markets. So, we're very
  • 00:00:12
    very happy with the way the country is
  • 00:00:14
    running. The president made a big show
  • 00:00:16
    of inviting cameras into the cabinet
  • 00:00:18
    meeting while the secretaries couped
  • 00:00:21
    about how well things were going. We're
  • 00:00:23
    getting the respect we deserve now. And
  • 00:00:25
    I think you're going to see historic
  • 00:00:26
    deals one after the other. I think it's
  • 00:00:29
    going to work out really very well.
  • 00:00:32
    But while Trump's pause had qualled the
  • 00:00:34
    markets yesterday, today he upped the
  • 00:00:37
    ante on his trade war with China and
  • 00:00:39
    shares and bonds slid heavily back into
  • 00:00:42
    the red. Wall Street is opening now with
  • 00:00:46
    um a negative sign. Uh the uncertainty
  • 00:00:49
    is extremely high, extremely high.
  • 00:00:52
    Tariffs against China, which have been
  • 00:00:54
    stepped up from 20% to 54% to 104%, were
  • 00:01:00
    today hiked again to 145%.
  • 00:01:06
    If they insist on pursuing a tariff war,
  • 00:01:08
    China will respond in kind and fight
  • 00:01:10
    till the end. Pressure, threats, or
  • 00:01:13
    blackmail are not the right way to deal
  • 00:01:15
    with China.
  • 00:01:18
    Nobody knows where this is going to end
  • 00:01:20
    up. And anyone that tells you they know
  • 00:01:22
    where it's going to end up is being
  • 00:01:23
    disingenuous. A lot of this has to do
  • 00:01:25
    with the whims of one person. It just so
  • 00:01:27
    happens that that person is the most
  • 00:01:29
    powerful person in the world and resides
  • 00:01:31
    in the White House. In the city,
  • 00:01:33
    anxieties were still high as bond prices
  • 00:01:36
    surged and share prices tumbled. The
  • 00:01:39
    impact of uncertainty is potentially
  • 00:01:41
    enormous. It's the type of thing that
  • 00:01:44
    economists don't really have the tools
  • 00:01:45
    to deal with. We don't have the models
  • 00:01:47
    to to to to deal with this element of
  • 00:01:49
    human behavior. But if you think about
  • 00:01:51
    the multitude of companies that are
  • 00:01:53
    pausing investment decisions, they're
  • 00:01:55
    pausing hiring decisions. All of that
  • 00:01:58
    fees the sense of uncertainty and then
  • 00:02:00
    stasis. On Capitol Hill, House
  • 00:02:02
    Republicans passed a budget bill they
  • 00:02:04
    claim will usher in massive tax and
  • 00:02:07
    spending cuts with the speaker telling
  • 00:02:09
    journalists Trump was right to pause the
  • 00:02:11
    unilateral tariffs. We know that markets
  • 00:02:14
    have been a little unstable. They want
  • 00:02:16
    to know that Congress is on the job, and
  • 00:02:17
    I'm here to tell you that we are. While
  • 00:02:20
    the EU suspended its steel and aluminium
  • 00:02:22
    retaliation against the US for 90 days,
  • 00:02:25
    there was still a lack of clarity about
  • 00:02:27
    how these trade fears would be
  • 00:02:29
    deescalated. I think no one trusts any
  • 00:02:32
    more US trade policy if we want to limit
  • 00:02:35
    to the trade policy. So, I I think
  • 00:02:38
    governments will still go there and and
  • 00:02:40
    trying to negotiate. Um I'm not sure
  • 00:02:42
    they will get big deals and even if the
  • 00:02:46
    deal is uh is reached. Uh it's unclear
  • 00:02:49
    for how long it can last. Nobody wins in
  • 00:02:52
    a trade war. Between them, the US and
  • 00:02:54
    China account for over onethird of
  • 00:02:56
    global GDP, but we still have the
  • 00:02:58
    world's two major economic superpowers
  • 00:03:02
    going at each other over trade. And that
  • 00:03:04
    will have repercussions for everyone.
  • 00:03:07
    Here's how the superpowers measure up.
  • 00:03:09
    US GDP is $25.5 trillion against China's
  • 00:03:14
    $18 trillion. But when you focus on
  • 00:03:16
    wealth per head, the US is way in front.
  • 00:03:20
    In China, it's under
  • 00:03:22
    $125,000. In the US, it's more than six
  • 00:03:25
    times that amount at under
  • 00:03:28
    $83,000. But look at how fast these
  • 00:03:30
    economies are growing. And you can see
  • 00:03:32
    why the US feels nervous. Not to mention
  • 00:03:35
    China's control of rare earth minerals,
  • 00:03:38
    its tech advances, as well as its
  • 00:03:41
    weapons
  • 00:03:42
    stockpiling. The US dollar is falling,
  • 00:03:45
    debt is climbing, and shares in all
  • 00:03:47
    American companies like Knight, Goldman
  • 00:03:49
    Sachs, and Chevron are all in sell-off
  • 00:03:52
    territory again. If this is certainty,
  • 00:03:57
    it's not yet being felt in financial
  • 00:04:00
    markets.
  • 00:04:03
    Haley Abraimi. Well, in a moment I'll be
  • 00:04:05
    speaking to a former Obama
  • 00:04:06
    administration official and a Republican
  • 00:04:09
    strategist. But first, Kathy spoke to
  • 00:04:11
    Victor Gao earlier from the Center for
  • 00:04:13
    China and Globalization in Beijing and
  • 00:04:15
    the former translator for the Chinese
  • 00:04:16
    leader Dung Xiaoping. She asked him
  • 00:04:19
    first if he thought the US had
  • 00:04:21
    successfully managed to isolate China. I
  • 00:04:24
    think the United States in launching
  • 00:04:26
    such a global trade war or tariff war is
  • 00:04:29
    doing the wrong thing. It has not only
  • 00:04:32
    significantly eroded the living
  • 00:04:34
    standards and the quality of life of the
  • 00:04:36
    American people, it has caused the
  • 00:04:38
    disruption in the stock market, in the
  • 00:04:41
    bond market, and the complete disregard
  • 00:04:44
    for the sovereignty and territorial
  • 00:04:46
    integrity of so many countries in the
  • 00:04:48
    world. The problem is though that the
  • 00:04:49
    rest of the world is now scrambling to
  • 00:04:51
    do deals with the US. Some of those are
  • 00:04:53
    quite close to being signed according to
  • 00:04:55
    America. So where does that leave China?
  • 00:04:58
    Well, if you hold a gun at the head of
  • 00:05:00
    anyone, uh most people will panic and
  • 00:05:03
    will be desperate and probably will do
  • 00:05:06
    what you command or dictate for them to
  • 00:05:09
    do. But whether they are willing to do
  • 00:05:12
    that, whether they really respect your
  • 00:05:14
    authority or uh control, that's another
  • 00:05:18
    thing. But the problem is that in this
  • 00:05:19
    scenario, use your metaphor, the US has
  • 00:05:22
    the bigger gun. And so China ends up
  • 00:05:24
    having more to lose from this trade war,
  • 00:05:27
    doesn't it? you know it can't sustain
  • 00:05:29
    the loss of 15% of its export market
  • 00:05:31
    i.e. what you export to the US. Not at
  • 00:05:34
    all. China is fully prepared to fight to
  • 00:05:36
    the very end because the world is big
  • 00:05:38
    enough that the United States is not the
  • 00:05:41
    totality of a market in the world. So if
  • 00:05:44
    the United States wants to go in that
  • 00:05:46
    direction of completely shutting itself
  • 00:05:48
    out of the China market, be my guest.
  • 00:05:51
    Yeah. And China will lose the US market,
  • 00:05:53
    which as I've said is 15%.
  • 00:05:56
    We don't we don't care. China has been
  • 00:05:59
    here for 5,000 years. Most of the time
  • 00:06:02
    there was no United States and we
  • 00:06:04
    survived. And if the United States wants
  • 00:06:06
    to bully China, we will deal with the
  • 00:06:09
    situation without the United States. And
  • 00:06:11
    we expect to survive for another 5,000
  • 00:06:14
    years. I I mean, I wonder how aggressive
  • 00:06:16
    China might be in trying to peel away
  • 00:06:19
    the EU, the UK, Australia, peel these
  • 00:06:22
    countries away from their deals with the
  • 00:06:24
    US. We do not want to uh separate other
  • 00:06:28
    countries from each other. But it is
  • 00:06:29
    true that EU is talking to China. The
  • 00:06:32
    voices I picked up here in Beijing is
  • 00:06:34
    that EU leaders and Chinese leaders are
  • 00:06:37
    having phone calls, exchange of
  • 00:06:39
    delegations. We're talking about the
  • 00:06:41
    possibility of signing up the
  • 00:06:42
    comprehensive agreement of investment or
  • 00:06:45
    even leading towards um a free trade
  • 00:06:49
    agreement between China and EU
  • 00:06:51
    eventually. When you hear Donald Trump
  • 00:06:53
    say China wants a deal, it just doesn't
  • 00:06:55
    know how to go about it. They're proud
  • 00:06:57
    people. JD Vance to talks about Chinese
  • 00:07:00
    peasants. What do you make of their
  • 00:07:02
    conduct in this respect? If JD Vance
  • 00:07:05
    thinks that he's dealing with the
  • 00:07:07
    peasants in China, and I'm proud to be a
  • 00:07:10
    descendant of the peasants, most of us
  • 00:07:12
    are descendants of the peasants anyway.
  • 00:07:14
    That's our tradition. We are farmers
  • 00:07:16
    before but now we are one of the leading
  • 00:07:20
    industrialized economies in the world.
  • 00:07:23
    So I'm sorry JD Vance doesn't know what
  • 00:07:25
    he's talking about and therefore I don't
  • 00:07:28
    think there will be China US dialogue
  • 00:07:30
    unless the United States changes its
  • 00:07:32
    attitude towards China. Deal with China
  • 00:07:35
    as it is. Show respect to China. Show
  • 00:07:38
    respect to the Chinese people and don't
  • 00:07:42
    try to impose your prejudice and bias
  • 00:07:45
    the view about China or about the rest
  • 00:07:47
    of the world. We will not buy that kind
  • 00:07:50
    of prejudice or discrimination from the
  • 00:07:53
    United States. No, we will never buy
  • 00:07:55
    that story. To hear you talk and to hear
  • 00:07:58
    Donald Trump talk, it seems very clear
  • 00:08:00
    that there's not going to be any deal
  • 00:08:01
    anytime soon unless someone alters their
  • 00:08:03
    stance. Doesn't that then mean global
  • 00:08:06
    recession and really misery for many
  • 00:08:08
    people around the world? Well, my
  • 00:08:10
    concern is that if China and the United
  • 00:08:12
    States do not take major measures to
  • 00:08:15
    correct all these tariff war or trade
  • 00:08:17
    war launched by the United States, uh we
  • 00:08:20
    will have a recession. President Trump
  • 00:08:23
    need to realize that Rome is not built
  • 00:08:25
    overnight. To talk about millions of
  • 00:08:28
    manufacturing jobs going back to the
  • 00:08:29
    United States, relying on tariff is a
  • 00:08:32
    futile attempt. You think the American
  • 00:08:34
    people will rise up?
  • 00:08:37
    Well, there will be the midterm election
  • 00:08:39
    uh next year and uh whether the American
  • 00:08:42
    people will vote with their feet, I do
  • 00:08:44
    not know. And there will be a general
  • 00:08:46
    election, presidential election in 2028.
  • 00:08:50
    Uh results will be known in 2029.
  • 00:08:53
    If you follow the American political
  • 00:08:55
    rhythm, uh no party has a complete
  • 00:08:58
    permanent lock on power and unlike in
  • 00:09:00
    China to prepare for changes. But in
  • 00:09:03
    China, we have stability. We have
  • 00:09:06
    stability, predictability, certainty. We
  • 00:09:09
    always say we have a plan for the coming
  • 00:09:11
    100 years for peace and stability and
  • 00:09:13
    development. Victor Gal, thank you very
  • 00:09:16
    much for joining us. Thank you very much
  • 00:09:18
    for having me. It's a great honor.
  • 00:09:20
    Well, I'm now joined by Peter Loge,
  • 00:09:22
    former Obama administration official and
  • 00:09:24
    Republican strategist Lance Trover.
  • 00:09:26
    Thanks very much to both of you for
  • 00:09:27
    coming on. Peter, let me start with you.
  • 00:09:29
    I mean, President Biden before that,
  • 00:09:33
    President Obama, everyone has been
  • 00:09:34
    saying we've got to deal with the
  • 00:09:36
    Chinese and of course, Republicans have
  • 00:09:38
    said the same thing. Is President Trump
  • 00:09:40
    finally doing something that the Biden
  • 00:09:42
    administration should have done? uh he's
  • 00:09:44
    finally doing something against China,
  • 00:09:46
    dealing with China head-on. Whether or
  • 00:09:47
    not it's something that Biden or anybody
  • 00:09:48
    else should have done or should be doing
  • 00:09:50
    is an open question. Okay. But is he is
  • 00:09:52
    he doing too much? Is he doing too
  • 00:09:53
    little? I mean, is he going to solve the
  • 00:09:55
    problem? Uh it depends which problem
  • 00:09:56
    you're talking about. If it's a problem
  • 00:09:57
    of global trade, I think American
  • 00:09:58
    voters, the Americans are going to feel
  • 00:10:00
    in the pocketbook pretty quickly, pretty
  • 00:10:02
    harshly. And I think increasingly
  • 00:10:03
    foreign countries are starting to do
  • 00:10:05
    deals with China because frankly it's a
  • 00:10:06
    more reliable trading partner because
  • 00:10:08
    they know what tariffs are are going to
  • 00:10:09
    be from moment to moment. And here in
  • 00:10:11
    the US, it's unclear what's going to
  • 00:10:13
    happen in the long term. Lance, let's
  • 00:10:15
    look at the reaction to what's been
  • 00:10:16
    happening in the markets. I mean, two
  • 00:10:19
    weeks ago, this economy was, you know,
  • 00:10:20
    tugging along quite nicely. Inflation
  • 00:10:22
    was coming down. You know, everyone
  • 00:10:24
    looked at America as the envy of the
  • 00:10:26
    world, and you've had a week of absolute
  • 00:10:28
    turmoil. Yes, the markets yelled with
  • 00:10:31
    joy yesterday because of that pause on
  • 00:10:32
    the tariffs, but we're backed into
  • 00:10:34
    pretty nasty red territory today. You
  • 00:10:36
    haven't managed to reassure the markets.
  • 00:10:39
    Well, we had a phenomenal jobs report
  • 00:10:40
    here in America last week. We had a
  • 00:10:42
    report this morning so showing that
  • 00:10:43
    inflation was down in March as well. Uh,
  • 00:10:47
    America's economy is strong. There's no
  • 00:10:48
    question about that. China's economy is
  • 00:10:50
    actually struggling, but America's
  • 00:10:51
    economy is strong. Yes, Wall Street is
  • 00:10:53
    freaking out a little bit, but I don't
  • 00:10:55
    know that middle America, who has seen
  • 00:10:57
    their towns decimated because of the uh
  • 00:10:59
    trade imbalance with China, uh,
  • 00:11:01
    completely agrees with Wall Street. But
  • 00:11:03
    the big difference yesterday was that
  • 00:11:04
    the bond markets, the bond markets,
  • 00:11:06
    which is an indication of trust in
  • 00:11:08
    America basically freaked out and that's
  • 00:11:11
    why they changed their mind in that
  • 00:11:12
    building down there. You had, you know,
  • 00:11:14
    Goldman Sachs saying we're already
  • 00:11:16
    effectively in a recession. Eventually
  • 00:11:18
    what happens on Wall Street washes up on
  • 00:11:20
    Main Street. Yeah, maybe. I mean, look,
  • 00:11:22
    there are going to be some adjustments
  • 00:11:23
    along the way. There's no question about
  • 00:11:24
    it. But if 75 plus countries are coming
  • 00:11:26
    to the White House saying we're looking
  • 00:11:28
    to make a trade deal, then I suspect we
  • 00:11:30
    will see over the course of the next few
  • 00:11:31
    months those imbalances with those
  • 00:11:33
    countries worked out. And yes, will
  • 00:11:34
    there be some bumps along the way?
  • 00:11:36
    Absolutely. But let's remember, I go
  • 00:11:38
    back to middle America out there who
  • 00:11:39
    have seen bumps for the last 20 or 30
  • 00:11:41
    years as uh factories have closed and
  • 00:11:43
    jobs have went overseas. That's what
  • 00:11:45
    middle America's been dealing with. To
  • 00:11:47
    that point, Peter, I mean, these
  • 00:11:49
    problems have been brewing for a very
  • 00:11:50
    long time indeed. And again, successful
  • 00:11:52
    administrations have promised that they
  • 00:11:54
    would sort out the problems of the rust
  • 00:11:55
    belt and bring those jobs back. And
  • 00:11:57
    again, it's not happened. It didn't
  • 00:11:59
    happen under your administration. It's
  • 00:12:00
    not happening now. Uh jobs were coming
  • 00:12:02
    back. Manufacturing was coming back. And
  • 00:12:03
    it is a tricky problem, right? Because
  • 00:12:04
    you put on tariffs, that's effectively a
  • 00:12:06
    tax on goods. So prices rise in the US
  • 00:12:08
    for American consumers. Nobody wants
  • 00:12:10
    that, right? The bond market, I think,
  • 00:12:12
    is the big talking point here, right?
  • 00:12:13
    The Democratic consultant James Carville
  • 00:12:15
    famously said he when he's a kid, he
  • 00:12:17
    wanted to be reincarnated as the
  • 00:12:18
    president. now he wants to be
  • 00:12:19
    reincarnated as the bond market because
  • 00:12:21
    that's where the power really is. I
  • 00:12:23
    think there's another story though here
  • 00:12:25
    and that's not not just about the
  • 00:12:26
    economy but do the American people and
  • 00:12:28
    do people globally see this as an
  • 00:12:30
    administration that's on top of its game
  • 00:12:32
    that's know knows what it's doing and
  • 00:12:34
    you look at uh workers who are
  • 00:12:36
    protecting America's nuclear facilities
  • 00:12:37
    who were fired and then unfired right
  • 00:12:39
    they they fired the guy who had the key
  • 00:12:41
    to the restroom at a national park
  • 00:12:43
    another story is I think world leaders
  • 00:12:45
    in the American voter might be saying I
  • 00:12:47
    like kind of some of what's going on but
  • 00:12:50
    I'm just not sure these guys are up to
  • 00:12:51
    the task I I mean, that's the real issue
  • 00:12:53
    here, isn't it? That you've lost trust
  • 00:12:55
    or rather the world has lost trust in
  • 00:12:57
    America's institutions, in America's
  • 00:13:00
    markets, in the ability of this country
  • 00:13:02
    to do the right thing at the right time.
  • 00:13:05
    And you know, when Trump basically puts
  • 00:13:07
    those tariffs on pause for a bit, that's
  • 00:13:08
    basically people saying, "Oh my god,
  • 00:13:10
    he's not completely insane." That's not
  • 00:13:11
    victory, is it? Well, the president's
  • 00:13:13
    not insane. I mean, look, I don't think
  • 00:13:15
    that anybody's really lost trust in
  • 00:13:16
    Look, we're in a bumpy period. There's
  • 00:13:18
    no question. But to your point, the one
  • 00:13:19
    that you raised initially for 20ome
  • 00:13:22
    years, everybody's talked about, we have
  • 00:13:23
    a $300 billion trade imbalance with
  • 00:13:26
    China. That's what America has. They
  • 00:13:27
    have stolen $600 billion a year in
  • 00:13:29
    intellectual property from America. And
  • 00:13:31
    they have infiltrated our universities
  • 00:13:33
    with Confucious Institutes. For 20ome
  • 00:13:35
    years, administrations have talked about
  • 00:13:37
    taking China headon. That's what this
  • 00:13:38
    president is doing. Yes. But are you
  • 00:13:40
    doing the same thing that Donald Trump
  • 00:13:42
    suggested we should do with CO, which is
  • 00:13:43
    to drink bleach, which could kill the
  • 00:13:45
    virus and also kill the patient. Isn't
  • 00:13:46
    that what he's just you know what he
  • 00:13:47
    suggested with these tariffs? I think
  • 00:13:49
    the only the only thing that was going
  • 00:13:50
    to work in this instance to get this
  • 00:13:51
    trade imbalance was a blunt force trauma
  • 00:13:53
    and an instrument to come in and say we
  • 00:13:55
    need to reset and that's why 75
  • 00:13:57
    countries are coming to make a deal
  • 00:13:58
    because if remember they need America
  • 00:14:00
    more than America needs them. Peter uh I
  • 00:14:02
    the global economy doesn't quite work
  • 00:14:04
    that way. Uh the markets are responding.
  • 00:14:06
    The people that keep track of this are
  • 00:14:07
    responding and I do really think it's a
  • 00:14:09
    matter of trust. I talked to a foreign
  • 00:14:11
    leader, a European leader several weeks
  • 00:14:12
    ago who's here on a trade mission and he
  • 00:14:14
    said he'd rather do business with the
  • 00:14:16
    US. Shares American values or big
  • 00:14:17
    trading partner, but frankly we're
  • 00:14:18
    unreliable. He is asking me what do I
  • 00:14:20
    do? I'm going to China to make trade
  • 00:14:22
    deals because I don't like their
  • 00:14:24
    politics. I don't like their human
  • 00:14:25
    rights records, but I know what they're
  • 00:14:26
    going to do next. That concerns me as a
  • 00:14:28
    citizen. That concerns me as a consumer.
  • 00:14:30
    Lance, at the end of the day, if this
  • 00:14:32
    trade war is as bad as it looks, and
  • 00:14:33
    these tariffs are unprecedented, and
  • 00:14:35
    this is exactly what happens in trade
  • 00:14:36
    wars. one side starts, the other side
  • 00:14:38
    responds and it gets worse and worse and
  • 00:14:40
    worse. This will have an impact on the
  • 00:14:42
    American economy and the world economy,
  • 00:14:44
    won't it? Well, I think in the interim,
  • 00:14:47
    yes. I mean, we're seeing the Wall
  • 00:14:48
    Street again. I think there's bumps that
  • 00:14:49
    are going to be worked out, but as these
  • 00:14:50
    other countries come to America, yes,
  • 00:14:53
    bumps potentially. Yeah. I mean, there's
  • 00:14:55
    there's there are bumps along the way,
  • 00:14:57
    but that's what happens when you have
  • 00:14:58
    massive trade imbalances and you're
  • 00:15:00
    trying to correct what's been, you know,
  • 00:15:01
    going wrong for America. And that's what
  • 00:15:03
    President Trump is trying to do is
  • 00:15:04
    correct these trade imbalances. That's
  • 00:15:06
    why 75 plus countries are coming to the
  • 00:15:08
    White House to try to renegotiate. And
  • 00:15:10
    so, look, are we going to go go at it
  • 00:15:12
    with China? Yeah. But I mean, we have a
  • 00:15:14
    $300 billion trade imbalance. Mhm. We
  • 00:15:16
    need to correct that. Peter, when they
  • 00:15:19
    talk about renegotiation in a best case
  • 00:15:21
    scenario, if you were in charge, what
  • 00:15:23
    would you hope for? Because the status
  • 00:15:24
    quo, as it was before, wasn't perfect
  • 00:15:26
    either. So, what would you do? Uh, you
  • 00:15:28
    know, I'm not a trade expert. I'm a
  • 00:15:29
    politics guy and I'm a college
  • 00:15:30
    professor. I think what I try to do is
  • 00:15:32
    sh up trust in American institutions, in
  • 00:15:34
    the press, in the judiciary, and frankly
  • 00:15:36
    in each other because with a good
  • 00:15:38
    trusting politics, we can solve
  • 00:15:40
    anything. Division just tears us all
  • 00:15:41
    down. But talking politics, it's
  • 00:15:43
    fascinating. We'll hear from a pollster
  • 00:15:44
    later on that actually despite the
  • 00:15:46
    turmoil of the last week, it hasn't
  • 00:15:48
    impacted that much on President Trump's
  • 00:15:50
    approval rating. Maybe it depends if you
  • 00:15:52
    dive into the numbers. The American
  • 00:15:53
    people and especially Republicans really
  • 00:15:55
    tend to like what he's doing on
  • 00:15:56
    immigration. increasing skepticism on
  • 00:15:58
    the economy among hardcore supporters
  • 00:16:00
    are always going to love Trump. Some are
  • 00:16:01
    always going to hate him. But I think
  • 00:16:03
    there's increasing skepticism among some
  • 00:16:04
    voters saying, "Wait, I didn't know you
  • 00:16:06
    meant me. I didn't know that these this
  • 00:16:08
    would affect me." Final question to both
  • 00:16:10
    of you, a brief one, if I may. President
  • 00:16:12
    Trump is behaving like a wannabe
  • 00:16:14
    monarch, you know, oddly enough, in the
  • 00:16:15
    year when you selling celebrating 250
  • 00:16:17
    years of revolution against the British
  • 00:16:19
    monarchy and Congress should be doing
  • 00:16:21
    its job and then not, right? So what's
  • 00:16:24
    going on there? Congress is doing its
  • 00:16:25
    job. Maybe you don't like the the
  • 00:16:27
    outcome. He governs by presidential
  • 00:16:28
    decree. Let's remember. Let's remember
  • 00:16:30
    Republicans won the House, the Senate,
  • 00:16:32
    and the presidency. I think, but he
  • 00:16:34
    doesn't go to Congress. He does
  • 00:16:35
    everything by, you know, signing a law.
  • 00:16:36
    I mean, he's he has executive authority
  • 00:16:38
    that he uses. And Congress, if Congress
  • 00:16:39
    felt strongly enough, I'm sure they
  • 00:16:40
    would step in and do something. Peter,
  • 00:16:43
    where are the Democrats? Yeah. No, I
  • 00:16:44
    absolutely The Democrats are making a
  • 00:16:46
    lot of noise. The question is where the
  • 00:16:47
    Republicans and I think you're
  • 00:16:49
    absolutely right. Congress is doing what
  • 00:16:50
    Congress can do, which is agree or
  • 00:16:52
    disagree. Republicans in Congress have
  • 00:16:54
    to be more afraid to agree with Trump
  • 00:16:57
    than to oppose him. Right now, they're
  • 00:16:59
    afraid of opposing him. So, they're
  • 00:17:00
    going along with it the moment they feel
  • 00:17:02
    the heat. And Mike, the speaker's
  • 00:17:04
    majority can comfortably fit in a Costco
  • 00:17:06
    sauna. He can't afford to lose many
  • 00:17:08
    votes. So, good thought to end on.
  • 00:17:09
    Interesting image. Peter lover. Thank
  • 00:17:11
    you very much to both of you. the
  • 00:17:13
    continuing turmoil over Donald Trump's
  • 00:17:15
    tariffs and China facing the full force
  • 00:17:19
    of the White House's fury with a 145%
  • 00:17:22
    tariff on Chinese imports to the United
  • 00:17:25
    States. That's left millions of workers
  • 00:17:27
    and consumers facing a new uncertainty.
  • 00:17:30
    But as Jane Death reports, the message
  • 00:17:32
    from the party and state media is that
  • 00:17:35
    China will emerge the winner.
  • 00:17:41
    A news reader on state television
  • 00:17:43
    announcing China's retaliatory move in
  • 00:17:46
    the tit fortat trade war. An 84% levy on
  • 00:17:50
    US
  • 00:17:51
    goods. Despite being hit with the
  • 00:17:54
    toughest of all Trump's tariffs, the
  • 00:17:56
    message in China seems to be show no
  • 00:17:59
    sign of weakness.
  • 00:18:02
    The foreign affairs spokesperson Ma Ning
  • 00:18:05
    used Elon Musk's ex to make the point
  • 00:18:07
    that the Chinese don't back
  • 00:18:10
    down with a video of Chairman Mao vowing
  • 00:18:14
    to triumph against America in the Korean
  • 00:18:16
    War.
  • 00:18:19
    [Applause]
  • 00:18:21
    On the socials of this state news
  • 00:18:24
    channel, a journalist tells viewers not
  • 00:18:26
    to believe the talk of a tariff
  • 00:18:28
    apocalypse. China makes things. It's the
  • 00:18:32
    only country in the world with
  • 00:18:33
    industries across all categories in the
  • 00:18:36
    UN industrial classification. That
  • 00:18:38
    affords China the ability to produce
  • 00:18:40
    nearly everything domestically if
  • 00:18:42
    necessary without having to rely on
  • 00:18:44
    imports. But in the eastern city of Yi
  • 00:18:48
    Wu, wholesalers who export everything
  • 00:18:50
    from tights to party poppers are not
  • 00:18:53
    feeling so relaxed about massive US
  • 00:18:56
    tariffs.
  • 00:18:59
    We are definitely worried that it will
  • 00:19:01
    be harder and harder to do business. Our
  • 00:19:03
    clients will have no profit to make and
  • 00:19:06
    neither will we.
  • 00:19:09
    The problem is, will tariffs work? Can
  • 00:19:12
    the US produce what China or Yei Woo is
  • 00:19:15
    producing now? Ordinary people are the
  • 00:19:17
    ones who will get hurt the most by the
  • 00:19:20
    tariffs. Meanwhile, some try to make
  • 00:19:22
    light of the heavy tariffs. This AI
  • 00:19:26
    generated video puts the US president
  • 00:19:28
    Elon Musk and JD Vance in the shoes of
  • 00:19:31
    Chinese factory workers and asks whether
  • 00:19:33
    Americans really want to produce goods
  • 00:19:36
    currently made in China.
  • 00:19:41
    And the view from here James Johnson's
  • 00:19:43
    is a political adviser and pollster. I
  • 00:19:46
    spoke to him a little while ago and
  • 00:19:47
    began by asking if all that's happened
  • 00:19:49
    in the White House in the last week and
  • 00:19:51
    the criticism of it has had any impact
  • 00:19:54
    at all on President Trump's approval
  • 00:19:56
    ratings. Not much that we've seen. So,
  • 00:19:59
    we did a poll last week in the midst of
  • 00:20:01
    tariff week and we found that Donald
  • 00:20:02
    Trump's approval was actually up 53%
  • 00:20:05
    approved, 47% disapproved. Now, that
  • 00:20:07
    moves around. It moves around the 50%
  • 00:20:09
    mark. That's quite good for Trump
  • 00:20:11
    historically. He's not always had
  • 00:20:13
    positive approval ratings. Now, it might
  • 00:20:15
    have taken a bit of a hit over the last
  • 00:20:16
    couple of days. We'll see what the polls
  • 00:20:17
    say over the next week or so, but I
  • 00:20:19
    don't expect it to be have to have had a
  • 00:20:20
    dramatic impact. And what were people
  • 00:20:22
    telling you in these polls that they
  • 00:20:24
    liked that he was doing correctly? So,
  • 00:20:26
    when we ask people what they liked about
  • 00:20:27
    Donald Trump's record so far, they say
  • 00:20:29
    the pace. They say he's moving fast and
  • 00:20:31
    he's doing what he said he'd do. That's
  • 00:20:33
    the thing that comes across. They feel
  • 00:20:34
    that it's promises uh made and promises
  • 00:20:37
    kept. Now, I've also been doing
  • 00:20:38
    interviews with voters around some of
  • 00:20:40
    the swing states. I was in Nevada last
  • 00:20:41
    week interviewing swing voters in Vegas,
  • 00:20:43
    a a place that went red for the first
  • 00:20:45
    time in Nevada for a long time. Now,
  • 00:20:47
    voters there were telling me that even
  • 00:20:49
    if the economy does worsen or even if
  • 00:20:51
    costs go up or even if this economic
  • 00:20:53
    chaos causes problems, they are not
  • 00:20:55
    going to blame the president. They are
  • 00:20:56
    looking instead at unions, they're
  • 00:20:59
    looking instead at judges, they're
  • 00:21:00
    looking instead at other members of the
  • 00:21:01
    Trump administration. Elon Musk is
  • 00:21:03
    another one in their in their
  • 00:21:04
    crosshairs. The loyalty to Trump is
  • 00:21:06
    really really significant amongst his
  • 00:21:08
    voters. Even if I mean we don't know
  • 00:21:10
    what was what would have happened had
  • 00:21:11
    the tariffs stayed as they were just 24
  • 00:21:14
    hours ago but let's say things you know
  • 00:21:16
    end up getting a bit wobbly even today
  • 00:21:17
    the markets were not great to be honest
  • 00:21:19
    if that goes further down you know in
  • 00:21:21
    the wrong direction will there be an
  • 00:21:23
    impact then on Trump so I think for
  • 00:21:24
    Donald Trump he's relatively cloistered
  • 00:21:26
    because of that loyalty that he has
  • 00:21:28
    amongst his voters there is something
  • 00:21:30
    interesting though is that his voters
  • 00:21:32
    aren't necessarily all going to go and
  • 00:21:34
    vote in 2026 in 2026 midterm elections
  • 00:21:37
    that will determine the control of the
  • 00:21:38
    House and the Senate, those elections do
  • 00:21:41
    not get as many people coming out to
  • 00:21:42
    vote. Now, those people who are a bit
  • 00:21:44
    more engaged, who vote in those
  • 00:21:46
    elections, they could be influenced by
  • 00:21:48
    this. Is he more popular than his party,
  • 00:21:50
    the Republican party? He is more popular
  • 00:21:52
    than the Republican party. Absolutely.
  • 00:21:54
    There are some polls that indicate that
  • 00:21:55
    Americans don't like what he's doing
  • 00:21:57
    specifically on the economy. And of
  • 00:22:00
    course, they elected him in order to fix
  • 00:22:01
    the economy and fix inflation and so on,
  • 00:22:03
    but that's not what you're finding in
  • 00:22:04
    your polls. So there's definitely
  • 00:22:06
    hesitation for sure about tariffs and
  • 00:22:08
    there's definitely hesitation about
  • 00:22:10
    inflation and the economy, but they feel
  • 00:22:11
    that they're going to give him time to
  • 00:22:13
    turn it around and that's where I think
  • 00:22:14
    there's a limited impact. The other
  • 00:22:16
    thing that's happening in the approval
  • 00:22:17
    ratings is that it's not all the economy
  • 00:22:19
    remember the border huge huge issue in
  • 00:22:21
    the election and people feel that Donald
  • 00:22:23
    Trump's record on the border has been
  • 00:22:24
    very very strong indeed. We saw 10% of
  • 00:22:28
    people before his inauguration saying
  • 00:22:30
    the border situation was going well.
  • 00:22:31
    It's now 50%. So that's a huge
  • 00:22:33
    turnaround in terms of American opinion
  • 00:22:35
    which is generally quite polarized. So
  • 00:22:37
    that positive sentiment on the border is
  • 00:22:39
    offsetting some of the negative
  • 00:22:40
    sentiment on the economy in the UK and
  • 00:22:42
    elsewhere. We care a lot about foreign
  • 00:22:44
    policy. The foreign policy coming out of
  • 00:22:46
    this White House on Ukraine and the
  • 00:22:47
    Middle East. Do American voters care
  • 00:22:49
    about that? American voters don't care.
  • 00:22:51
    That is the thing I have been struck by
  • 00:22:53
    again and again in the interviews that
  • 00:22:55
    I've been doing. There's a widespread
  • 00:22:56
    assumption amongst lots of swing voters
  • 00:22:57
    that America is actually in Ukraine
  • 00:22:59
    because there's not much uh you know
  • 00:23:01
    there's not much sort of close following
  • 00:23:03
    of what's exactly going on. And the view
  • 00:23:05
    is is that we is that America shouldn't
  • 00:23:06
    be funding Ukraine. America shouldn't be
  • 00:23:08
    funding foreign issues abroad. That can
  • 00:23:10
    backfire on Trump too. They also don't
  • 00:23:12
    like the Canada 51st state or the
  • 00:23:13
    Greenland stuff either. They don't
  • 00:23:15
    That's interesting. American expansion
  • 00:23:17
    that's going too far. It's going too
  • 00:23:18
    far. American expansionism is not in
  • 00:23:20
    vogue. But that also means they don't
  • 00:23:21
    want to see an interventionist America
  • 00:23:23
    in China, Russia, wherever it might be
  • 00:23:24
    either. James Johnson, thanks very much.
  • 00:23:26
    Thank you.
Tags
  • US-China Trade War
  • Tariffs
  • Economic Instability
  • Trump Administration
  • Financial Markets
  • Global Economy
  • Trade Policy
  • Consumer Impact
  • Investment Decisions
  • Political Commentary